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David Miller
Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 16, 2015 at 6:48:58 pm

...the highway....for both employees and customers. They're not going back so far as he's concerned:

http://blogs.wsj.com/cfo/2015/01/16/adobe-systems-cfo-managing-business-mod...

Here's the key section:
" Fourth, burn the boats. At some point along the way, you have to say this is the right answer and a new strategy. You can’t go back. From an employee point of view, there will be some who resist change. They have to get on board or leave, because frankly we are focused on this and this is the new direction.

From a customer perspective, they are like anybody. They like doing things the way they’ve always been done. At first, you give them a choice of buying the old and new way. A lot will fall back and not move to a subscription model. But you have got to get to the point where you say to the customer, we’re not updating a perpetual product. It’s a major milestone.

From an employee perspective you have to stick to your guns and say, ‘Like it or leave.’ From a customer point of view, you have to nudge them to the new model, slowly but surely, by not giving them a new option any more. To do that you have to look at yourself in the mirror and say, ‘The customer is better off with the new model.’ "


I hope he continues to look at himself in the mirror as many of their former customers walk away to some other option.

The 3 million or so that they have captured into CC so far are likely the "low hanging fruit" of their customer base...the ones most likely to join. The remaining 75% or so (Adobe apparently has around 12 million customers) may prove a lot harder to persuade.

Will be interesting to see, I'm sure.

- David


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 16, 2015 at 7:42:33 pm

Adobe'S stock has been stuck in a rut for the last couple of months, beetween high 60's and low 70's. So they announce a stock buyback for 2billion to stop the bleedindg and increase the shares eps. now the cfo comes out to try and bring in thr holdouts. seems that things are not going as expected.
they have admited to losing 9million customes and only attracting the low hanging fruit. he says 3million subscribers, of which 61% are full subscription the rest are either 1 app or ps variety,, then you add the fire sales. hmm its not gooing well for adobe.


ricardo marty


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David Miller
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 16, 2015 at 11:13:48 pm
Last Edited By David Miller on Jan 16, 2015 at 11:14:34 pm

I just realized that the link I posted might lead to a page on WSJ that basically is behind a firewall (i.e. one has to subscribe to read any of it).

I did not run into that initially because I got onto that page from a link in the google "news" area. I was able to read a decent portion of the story, though I believe there was still some more to the story that was not available unless I subscribed.

If you want to give it a try, then you can go to the google "news" page, type in "adobe" at the top, and when the search page displays, scroll down to the bottom 1/3 of that results page. There will be an item down there labelled "Adobe Systems CFO: Managing Business Model Transformations". I don't know how long that will be on that page, so if you want to check it out do it sooner rather than later.

- David


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 3:12:57 am

Here's the link from Google News. It worked for me and may still work for others:

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=newssearch&cd=6&ved=0...

Thanks for pointing to this article. It's fascinating to read these words from the CFO himself. The self-righteousness is pretty spectacular. ‘Like it or leave.’ Well, OK then.

One last key set of quotes:
"The last one, which is very important from a Wall Street point of view is to be transparent. It was very, very complicated for Wall Street to understand that you’ve got a perpetual model that’s going to fall off and because of that you couldn’t look at the [profit and loss statement] and you couldn’t understand that everything is going south but everything is fine.

We had transparent communications for three years. We showed them the faster the P&L goes down, the better you are as an investor because more people were subscribers and over the long term we are better off as a business. We helped bridge them for quite awhile, and then we got to a point where they were totally onboard and understood the new model. We kept giving them long-term guidance so they could see the light at the end of the tunnel."

He seems to be saying that they've convinced Wall Street that it's fine that they're losing money now because it's an entirely new business model. He later goes on to say:
"As we get into 2016 and 2017, the cash flow in our business model really starts to come back in a meaningful way."

That's when the rubber hits the road. They're counting on significant cash flow increase from subscribers over the next three years.

The question is what happens if this doesn't pan out. I wonder if Wall Street will ‘Like it or leave.’

_______________________
David Lawrence
art~media~design~research
propaganda.com
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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 3:46:10 am

If they cant fill their expectation from the low hanging fruit what makes them think that the mote inaccesabile fruit will?

Ricardo Marty


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 7:15:29 am

[Ricardo Marty] "If they cant fill their expectation from the low hanging fruit what makes them think that the mote inaccesabile fruit will?"

Well Ricardo,

As the Adobe CFO Mark Garrett says: "you have to nudge them to the new model, slowly but surely, by not giving them a new option any more." And then you tell these customers to "Like it or leave." What an attractive business relationship model. Doesn't that make you want to rush to sign up right now? How can it possibly fail? lol!

_______________________
David Lawrence
art~media~design~research
propaganda.com
publicmattersgroup.com
http://lnkd.in/Cfz92F
facebook.com/dlawrence
twitter.com/dhl
vimeo.com/dlawrence/albums


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Dave LaRonde
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 2:59:30 am

It sounds like Mr. Garrett assumes that Adobe won't face any kind of new competition. All takes is a nudge. New competitors to key Adobe products could be a massive push.

Dave LaRonde
Promotion Producer
KGAN (CBS) & KFXA (Fox) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 6:11:03 pm

Except the real answer from Adobe is "Like it, you CAN'T leave". Once you buy in you are stuck paying forever if you want to have access to your own work. That is not a situation I will be involved in, and apparently 3/4 of their customers currently feel that way as well.

I'm moving to FCPX with Motion 5 and find myself using Adobe products less every day. I have a 2012 Mac Pro with 5 boot drives that ought to keep me up to date system software wise for quite a while. The Late 2013 New Mac Pro will go farther. There is a lot of competition coming up fast in the photo market as well, which is also important to me. Won't mention names or Adobe might try to buy and kill them, if they have a few bucks left from their stock buyback sleight of hand.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.1.4, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.5, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1 TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 2:18:58 am

[Jim Wiseman] "Except the real answer from Adobe is "Like it, you CAN'T leave".
.
.
.
I'm moving to FCPX with Motion 5 and find myself using Adobe products less every day.
.
.
.
There is a lot of competition coming up fast in the photo market as well, which is also important to me."


Sounds the permanent lock-in isn't so permanent. ;)


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 4:27:25 am

yes specialy if you dont get into it.

ricardo marty


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Tim Wilson
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 12:52:58 am
Last Edited By Tim Wilson on Jan 20, 2015 at 1:01:21 am

Too many numbers for me, man. I don't understand half of 'em, which I DO understand disqualifies me from part of this discussion. I want to state plainly that I'm offering my opinion in exactly one sentence, several paragraphs down. My only capability, and therefore my only intent, is to talk about the numbers that matter to me, and they all have dollar signs.

The only numbers I care about are past performance, and among people who watch the stock for a living, the range of predictions for the next year. After all, they've parsed all the numbers you've mentioned, and a bunch of others that we don't have access to.

I'm going to focus on the last 2 years, because that's roughly the time period that covers the subscription-only model. (That is, somebody more adept at charts than I am can zero in more exactly, but I'm going to use Yahoo Finance's 2 year charts and leave it at that. Predictions are from the aggregates collected at CNN.)

Round 1: Which stock had the best performance over the past 2 years?

Apple: from $71 to $106: 49%. Nice!

Adobe: from $38 to $72: 89%! VERY nice!

Round 1 winner: ADBE, not even close.


Round 2: Which stock do its professional trackers most typically see coming out ahead?

There are 50 professional Apple watchers to 22 for Adobe. It's interesting to me that, given the APPLE-ness of Apple, that the numbers are so close, but clearly, Adobe's dramatically better performance than Apple over the past 2 years merits close attention.

So, what do the professional analysts of the two companies say?

Apple: median target gain of 17.9%. Nice!

Adobe: median target gain of 18.5%. Also nice!

A 3% swing in Adobe's favor isn't really enough to make a decision on, so...

Bonus Round: what are the potential upsides and downsides?

Upside, Apple, no doubt: 40% to Adobe's 30%. But hey, 30% is hardly worth knocking Adobe out of the ring for, especially because Adobe's stock performance over 2 years has been so much better than Apple's.

Well then, according to people who track these stocks for a living, what's the potential downside for Adobe and Apple?

The lowest score Adobe earns from any of its analysts is down 9% on the year. Okay, I'd rather not, but 9% is not too bad in the scheme of things.

What about Apple? Dearly beloved, can do no wrong Apple? Apple of the "Of COURSE they should be buying their own stock" Apple.

The low end of Apple's range is down 43%.

What? I was sure that that was a typo. Where the heck did THAT number come from?

It came from the 9 month span from September 2013 to April 2014, when Apple's stock dropped....wait for it...43%!!! From $98 to $56.

So whaddya know, the people who watch Apple for a living didn't just pull that 43% number out of thin air! It's an actual number that Apple actually ignominiously accomplished over a 9 month span!!!

Here's the other thing about past performance and professionally predicted future performance. If you'd bought Apple stock exactly two years ago today, you'd have been losing money for nearly the entire year! It took 15 months for Apple to go from $71 to $74!!!

In the same span, Adobe went from $37 to $63! That's a gain of 59% in the same 15 months.

In the past year, though, 34% for Apple vs. 20% for Adobe. Not close...but still, 20% is hardly a disaster.

In any case, over the past 2 years Adobe has by far the bigger gain with dramatically less volatility.

I don't have enough hair left to spare to stomach Apple's swings, so -- at long last! My actual opinion rather than just reciting actual numbers! -- Adobe would get the nod for me.

If I invested in this sector, which, as I already noted that, as part of my diversification strategy, I don't, except to the extent to which stocks in this sector are part of broader index funds.

If you pick Apple, that's fine. I can see why, and I won't argue against it. The numbers are the numbers, and if you can live with a lot of volatility, Apple will obviously do great.

You might also prefer not to vote with your dollars in favor of Adobe's plans, as indeed many of you have chosen not to do. I would never argue against that either.

The bottom line is that based on ACTUAL performance, and predictions from PROFESSIONAL watchers of the two companies, each is AT LEAST as fundamentally sound as the other.

The BOTTOM bottom line is that if you think it's a good idea for Apple to buy its own stock, based on ACTUAL performance and ACTUAL recommendations from its professional watchers, it's a good idea for Adobe too.

Indeed, the consensus for both stocks from its professional watchers: Buy.

Again, I understand that Adobe can't do anything right. Everything about its numbers are the work of charlatans, or at the least, of callous anti-customer boobs who are intent on blowing up the heritage of one of the industry's once-great companies in a spectacular cloud of incompetence.

Maybe so. As I've noted repeatedly, the numbers for all this are beyond me. I only see what a bunch of charts and professional analysts tell me. The fact is that we'll see what we see in a few more years.

But as a reader of charts covering the past 2 years, and looking at the coming year, I can only note that nobody who watches Adobe for a living sees major clouds on the horizon, not compared to Apple.

So, I've conceded repeatedly that I have no basis for saying I know more than professional Adobe watchers and professional Apple watchers do. I certainly don't know more than you do, Jim. I'm just thinking different. LOL

Respectfully, what's your basis for so dramatically differing with professional Adobe stock watchers? Are you saying that professional stock analysts like these aren't reading the fundamental numbers?

Again, I have no basis for arguing with you, and I'm not. I'm only pointing out the argument that you have with THEM, and wondering what you're sure you know, and what you're sure they don't.

But today, for a stock buyback program, the only conclusion that this non-expert can draw from ACTUAL past performance, and analysis by professional stockwatchers is that Adobe is, if anything, being far too timid. They should be buying more aggressively. What else in Adobe's portfolio has grown as well, and with as little volatility, as their own stock?

Certainly not Apple stock.

I'll try to follow your reply as best I can. Have I mentioned that I leave all these decisions to my wife? LOL It's all I can do to read charts.

It will help me follow your reply if you have charts. LOL

[Note: edited to hopefully fix enough typos to give the appearance that I didn't type this with my feet.]


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Richard Herd
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 22, 2015 at 7:46:14 pm

[Tim Wilson] "Indeed, the consensus for both stocks from its professional watchers: Buy."

The sentiment you expressed is the thing itself. We should buy the stock and receive a complimentary subscription. ;)


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 22, 2015 at 8:17:56 pm

[Richard Herd] "The sentiment you expressed is the thing itself. We should buy the stock and receive a complimentary subscription. ;)"

You should submit that as a feature request to Adobe!


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Tim Wilson
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 22, 2015 at 9:13:03 pm

Well played, sir. Well played. LOL


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 22, 2015 at 10:32:48 pm
Last Edited By Jim Wiseman on Jan 22, 2015 at 11:07:40 pm

Tim,
Thanks for making your points. As far as all the references to professional stock watchers, they've been consistently wrong about Apple for the last 20 odd years, from the time they had them dead and buried, until now, when they are the most highly valued company on earth. Market cap now 620 billion or so. Exxon now number two, I assume, listed today at 389 billion. Rankings from Wikipedia as of the end of 2014. Valuations current.

Here are the basics of what I was trying to point out, the most pertinent of the numbers there..

All of those figures actually do mean something, stock wise. For instance Earnings/Share Apple $6.43 vs Adobe 50 cents. (Apple/Adobe) Profit Margin of 21.61% vs 6.11%, and the biggie for me, Price per share multiple of earnings Apple 16.5x and Adobe a rather astronomical 143.5x! That means you are paying 143.5 times the amount of the earnings they make for a share of their stock. How long can that go on? No analysis needed there.

And all of this combined with what you said brings me to one conclusion. Adobe is promoting Creative Cloud mostly as a STOCK play, not so much as it is a service to their customers, most of whom could care less about the stock price. This is for Wall Street, not media producers. They could improve the software without exclusive Creative Cloud rental.

Again, most of us (75%?) are just asking for a way to access Adobe software without them, in their own phrase, "burning the boats" and leaving us stuck on their software island. To continue to be able to work on our own assets without paying forever. They must be smart enough to figure out a way to do this.

Thanks for the forum to discuss these things.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.1.4, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.5, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1 TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD


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David Miller
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 23, 2015 at 12:21:01 am

[Jim Wiseman] "And all of this combined with what you said brings me to one conclusion. Adobe is promoting Creative Cloud mostly as a STOCK play, not so much as it is a service to their customers, most of whom could care less about the stock price. This is for Wall Street, not media producers. They could improve the software without exclusive Creative Cloud rental."

Jim....

thanks for pointing this out. And, as if on cue, we have this:

" A trio of executives at Adobe Systems ( ADBE ) has sold a total of 51,992 shares so far this month. Narayen Shantanu, the company's president and CEO, sold 36,762 shares on Jan. 2 at $73.01 per share. David Wadhwani, general manager of digital media, sold 11,230 shares at $71.90. Ann Lewnes, the company's chief marketing officer, sold 4,000 shares at $69.88 per share.

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/adobe-insiders-sell-51992-shares-cm435067#ixz... "


The CEO of Adobe wants to cash in on some shares, I suppose, before they start to go down. Or, maybe he and the company's chief marketing officer know something the rest of us don't. ;)

But I'm sure it's just a case where some shares matured and that's why they're cashing them in. :/

- David
(one of the 9 million)


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David Miller
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 23, 2015 at 12:26:55 am

PS: I'd still like to know what the configuration of those "38 million" accounts (the ones that were hacked in a security breach a year or so ago) was.

Were they every customer Adobe has had within the last 5 years? Every creative customer they've ever had? Some combination of creative customers and other customers? Or some other configuration?

If it's the case that the figure for the creative software should be 38 million instead of the 12.8 million mentioned earlier, then Adobe has a looooooooooooonnnngggggg way to go to get full adoption of CC.

I'm guessing it's likely more towards the 12.8 million, but it would be nice to know where those 38 million accounts were situated category-wise.

- David


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 23, 2015 at 7:56:03 pm

[David Miller] "PS: I'd still like to know what the configuration of those "38 million" accounts (the ones that were hacked in a security breach a year or so ago) was.
"


Yeah, with the Adobe hack I've heard anywhere from 38 million users to 150 million "breached records". Breached records possibly meaning multiple pieces of data per user (ex. user name is 1 record, password is another record, etc.,).

What I would like to know (and I'm sure this is part of what Adobe based it's plan on) is what are the buying habits of those 12 million users? For example, how many bought CS3 and never upgraded to another version? How many upgrade very other version? How many upgrade every version? Obviously a user that bought CS3 or 4 and never upgraded isn't a user Adobe is worried about losing because that user only bought one product and that was in 2007.


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David Miller
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 23, 2015 at 8:16:32 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "Yeah, with the Adobe hack I've heard anywhere from 38 million users to 150 million "breached records". Breached records possibly meaning multiple pieces of data per user (ex. user name is 1 record, password is another record, etc.,).

What I would like to know (and I'm sure this is part of what Adobe based it's plan on) is what are the buying habits of those 12 million users? For example, how many bought CS3 and never upgraded to another version? How many upgrade very other version? How many upgrade every version? Obviously a user that bought CS3 or 4 and never upgraded isn't a user Adobe is worried about losing because that user only bought one product and that was in 2007."



Those would also be good things to know. It would more clearly illustrate exactly what the situation is with regards to the ongoing concerns about CC.

In my case, I was one of those users that Adobe loved to have since I upgraded just about every single time a new version came out. I started way back with Illustrator '88 and Photoshop Ver 3 and did just about every single version of the individual products up till CS, and with CS I also got CS, CS2, CS3, CS4, CS5, CS5.5 and CS6. This also does not count all the other odd products such as (in earlier Mac OS days) Adobe Type Manager and a whole slew of Adobe fonts. I believe there were a few other products that I got as well beyond those mentioned but I can't recall their names offhand.

I was fine with doing business in that manner, and that's the way I want to continue doing it. But Adobe decided otherwise. Till they change, I won't be going to CC.

- David
(one of the 9 million)


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 24, 2015 at 1:24:01 am

Almost exactly my history with Adobe and the companies I advised for, David. I also have come to the same conclusion as you. No more Adobe purchases unless the rental model is dropped or highly modified with a solid, affordable off ramp.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.1.4, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.5, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1 TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 24, 2015 at 6:49:54 am

Hey Jim & David,

[Jim Wiseman] "Almost exactly my history with Adobe and the companies I advised for, David. I also have come to the same conclusion as you. No more Adobe purchases unless the rental model is dropped or highly modified with a solid, affordable off ramp."

I think that is a really positive statements, as it is not the product itself, but the way it is packaged and "sold" to you. At least Adobe still have a chance to keep your business should they need/want to do so.

However, can I ask this: with both of you buying all of the major point releases if and when they arrived what would be the purchase price of CS versus that of using CC?
From a business point of view, without looking at the issue of software license v SaaS and the issue of accessing project data in a distant future, would it not be more cost effective to use CC?

Mads
(1 of the other 7.116 Billion people not included in the 9 Million)


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 23, 2015 at 12:28:53 am

[David Miller] "The CEO of Adobe wants to cash in on some shares, I suppose, before they start to go down. Or, maybe he and the company's chief marketing officer know something the rest of us don't. ;)

But I'm sure it's just a case where some shares matured and that's why they're cashing them in. :/
"


In 2010 Apple execs cashed in over 1 million shares of APPL.
http://www.macrumors.com/2010/03/26/apple-executives-cash-in-over-1-million...

In 2013 execs (including Cook) cashed in over 100,000 shares.
http://www.tuaw.com/2013/06/27/numerous-apple-executives-sell-millions-wort...

They must not have any confidence in Apple... ;)


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David Miller
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 23, 2015 at 12:34:25 am

[Andrew Kimery] "In 2010 Apple execs cashed in over 1 million shares of APPL.
http://www.macrumors.com/2010/03/26/apple-executives-cash-in-over-1-million.....

In 2013 execs (including Cook) cashed in over 100,000 shares.
http://www.tuaw.com/2013/06/27/numerous-apple-executives-sell-millions-wort.....

They must not have any confidence in Apple... ;)

"




Naww, Andrew....it's more of a case that Tim and company are running out of places to store cash. ;)

apple Market cap 643.98B


adobe Market cap 35.59B


They had to take a bit out to wet their beaks after this huge run. ;)

- David
(one of the 9 million)


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 23, 2015 at 12:38:35 am

[David Miller] "Naww, Andrew....it's more of a case that Tim and company are running out of places to store cash. ;) "

If we could all have such problems. :)


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David Miller
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 23, 2015 at 12:40:11 am

[Andrew Kimery] "If we could all have such problems. :)
"



Yeah....wouldn't that be a blast? :)

- David


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David Miller
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 23, 2015 at 1:28:49 am
Last Edited By David Miller on Jan 23, 2015 at 1:32:01 am

Here's another way of looking at stock and business:







"You will atone!" ;)

- David


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our (new) way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 2:16:02 pm

Hey David & David,

As a user, who may not want the new model, I can see how that article could be spun into something awful.

However, it does offer some great insights into the reasoning behind the CC. Here are the take aways I find most interesting:

"Our problem was, if you go back to the 2008 recession, we only had 5% of recurring revenue in 2007, now we are well over 60%. That is a huge change and a positive change for us."

"A subscription-based business model needs to be up 24/7. It needs to be built up. It’s different from shipping a shrink-wrapped CD. That requires a lot of back office work."

"rethink how you run IT, how you run engineering, the metrics of the business. The metrics for our business from a traditional [profit and loss] business to whole new metrics to explain to Wall Street what the health of the business was."

"burn the boats. At some point along the way, you have to say this is the right answer and a new strategy. You can’t go back."

"At first, you give them a choice of buying the old and new way. A lot will fall back and not move to a subscription model. But you have got to get to the point where you say to the customer, we’re not updating a perpetual product. It’s a major milestone."

"Be transparent. Always make sure Wall Street can do a model of your business. If they can’t do a model, they can’t invest in your business. And third, give them some long-term benchmarks to see if you are doing what you said you were going to do. Knocking these things as you go builds up credibility."


Quite honest and refreshing - now show me another creative "tool" maker who has been as forthright as Adobe are about their strategy?

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe CFO: our (new) way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 4:52:14 pm
Last Edited By Ricardo Marty on Jan 17, 2015 at 4:59:54 pm

everything has at least two faces. what the cfo is telling can be interpreted by what he says and why and what he dosent say. do you think that the fire sales dont meen anything?.they say things and do things both are forms of communications. its all codes. if he thinks that cc is inmune to economical downturns he has no idea what he is talking about, not to add any other disruptions, or competition.

just a couple days ago adobe announced a. $2billion stock by back do you think this is a good sign?

the bottom line, is it making money? as to the moment they are not and the recent trends in wall street shows signs of stagnation.

ricardo cardona


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our (new) way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 5:03:15 pm

Hey Ricardo,

What the CFO "dosent say" is just pure speculation. Added to that, the fact is that according to the market data Adobe did get hit by the financial crash(es) in 2008, and what the CFO does state; is how Adobe responded and re-engineered the company and its business model. Reading the text, the company knew that it would possibly loose valued employees and customers alike, but that it would worth it.

[Ricardo Marty] "just a couple od days ago adobe announced a. $2billion stock by back do you think this is a good sign?"

Yes I do as it could add more value to the other shareholders holdings + it is a clever way to use a pile of cash without going on an overly expensive shopping spree, whilst also showing that the board have confidence in the company.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe CFO: our (new) way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 5:55:24 pm

mads the buyback is a way to increase eps value so the stockholder would keep their shares and no sell them. when shares stagnate the share holder will look elsewhere for profit so they will sell.

what adobe doesnt say canbe specuation but its an educated speculation. if you want to talk about speculation thats what adobe is doing now.

ricardo marty


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our (new) way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 7:25:04 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "mads the buyback is a way to increase eps value so the stockholder would keep their shares and no sell them."

No Sh*t, Sherlock!?

The missing question is; where does one get $2 Billion from? And if one has a spare $2 Billion, should they not be used to benefit the shareholders?

Speculation is just that: guesswork.

On that note, I would like to see a bit of serious competition to Adobe CC, otherwise they might not keep up all the great innovations that we've seen so far in CC.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe CFO: our (new) way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 7:47:30 pm

buyback is taking money from one pocket and putting it in the other pocket. so its not really an expense but it keeps the shareholders from selling their stocks because they are worth more. so its a trick to keep things looking good when in reality ithings are not that good.


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Tim Wilson
Re: Adobe CFO: our (new) way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 8:09:02 pm

Adobe 2015 stock buyback: $2 billion

Apple FY2014 stock buyback: $45 billion

So, Adobe will spend 4% what Apple has.

Let's read that again, shall we?

Apple has spent $45 billion on stock buybacks.

Adobe will spend $2 billion.

That's all. Only 4% of what Apple spent.

To put it another way, Apple's stock buyback plan is 2150% (two thousand one hundred and fifty percent) bigger than Adobe's.

But of course, Apple is run by intelligent people who are dedicated to returning maximum value to both customers and markets, so a massive stock buyback only makes good sense. Well done, Apple!

Adobe on the other hand is run by maniacs with complete disregard for both customers and financial markets, so this buyback plan 4% the size of Apple's is further evidence of Adobe's lack of intelligence and integrity. Boo, Adobe!

Do I have that about right?

The reasons for both buyback programs is the same: the companies believe that their stock is trading below value, so they are taking their own advice to investors and buying NOW. When they reissue those shares at a higher price, they'll have made money on the deal. That's obviously a little oversimplified, but not THAT oversimplified.

Adobe stock has actually been a terrific investment. If you'd bought Adobe stock on the day that subscription-only was announced, you'd have made more money than if you'd invested in Apple, Google or Microsoft.

(For the record, I'm a very conservative investor. I don't invest in individual stocks, and other than their presence in market index funds, and as part of my diversification strategy, I don't invest in any sector I'm employed in. That rules me out of holding any of these, regardless of their performance.)

I was looking this up a few months ago when we had a similar conversation, and I found that at the beginning of 2014, the consensus target for Adobe stock was $45. Well, Adobe blew right past that. The target is now as high as $90-ish, a rise of 20-30% depending on who you ask. So, having a significant position in their own stock seems prudent. Markets tend to reward this kind of confidence, as long as the subsequent stock performance merits it.

Which is why there has yet to be any blowback on Adobe to this strategy from either shareholders or the investment community. There certainly wasn't to Apple's program, which was, again, 2150% (two thousand one hundred and fifty percent) bigger.

Look, it's just a capital management strategy. You might like it, you may not, but it's not a sign of the apocalypse or any other flavor of impending doom. Not for Apple, not for Adobe, not for anyone.


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobe CFO: our (new) way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 5:34:00 pm

Peruse today's figures. Which company is buying back stock because they think it is a good investment, and which is buying back to prop up it's weak fundamentals? P/E ratio 16.5 vs. 143.5? Earnings per share $6.43 vs. $.50? Dividends are nice too. Adobe doesn't pay one. If I had Apple's balance sheet I'd be buying back my own stock too.

Apple AAPL
Market capitalization
621.6B
Avg. volume (10-day)
58.7M
Shares outstanding
5.9B
Dividend (yield)
$1.88 (1.77%
P/E ratio
16.5x
Earnings per share
$6.43
Revenue
$182.8B
Profit margin
21.61%
Return on equity
33.61%


Adobe ADBE
Market capitalization
35.8B
Avg. volume (10-day)
2.3M
Shares outstanding
498.7M
ADBE does not pay dividends
P/E ratio
143.5x
Earnings per share
$0.50
Revenue
$4.1B
Profit margin
6.11%
Return on equity
3.76%

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.1.4, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.5, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1 TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our (new) way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 7:57:53 pm

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "Quite honest and refreshing - now show me another creative "tool" maker who has been as forthright as Adobe are about their strategy?"

Hey Mads,

I agree that it's honest and refreshing that the Adobe CFO is telling the financial newspaper of record that their business strategy is removing choice and that customers can "Like it or leave." If that appeals to you, please enjoy.

It's interesting that he brings up the 2008 collapse as justification for the new model. It seems to me that the same Wall Street-fueled magical thinking that created that mess is exactly what Adobe is doing to itself now. We'll find out in 2017. This is a long game.

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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our (new) way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 10:31:32 am

Hey David,

[David Lawrence] "that their business strategy is removing choice and that customers can "Like it or leave." If that appeals to you, please enjoy."

You do realize that you are quoting the Adobe CFO out of context? It is quite clear that Mark Garrett is referring to employees, and not that of the customer when it comes to the "Like it or leave" comment - so let's not put words in his mouth that didn't come out of it in the first place.

"Fourth, burn the boats. At some point along the way, you have to say this is the right answer and a new strategy. You can’t go back. From an employee point of view, there will be some who resist change. They have to get on board or leave, because frankly we are focused on this and this is the new direction."

"From an employee perspective you have to stick to your guns and say, ‘Like it or leave.’"


[David Lawrence] "It's interesting that he brings up the 2008 collapse as justification for the new model."

You have elsewhere in this thread made references to Apple: https://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/378/9855
It is fair to say that without their online digital iTunes/app store that neither the iPhone nor the iPad would have enjoyed any kind of success. One could argue that Adobe is copying a concept already made successful by the likes of Apple, Google and Amazon, which Microsoft is also endorsing. However: 2008 was certainly a wake-up call for many companies stuck in a traditional market.

IMHO Adobe has taken a solid product offering: Reduced the price and upped the speed of delivery of a vastly improved product in return for a bit of customer loyalty. That for me is a win-win.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our (new) way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 8:12:02 pm

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "You do realize that you are quoting the Adobe CFO out of context? It is quite clear that Mark Garrett is referring to employees, and not that of the customer when it comes to the "Like it or leave" comment - so let's not put words in his mouth that didn't come out of it in the first place."

Hey Mads,

I find it fascinating that the CFO of Adobe is revealing dissent among among the employee ranks. This matches what I've heard from some inside sources - that management has dug in their heels but employees are not 100% on board.

But make no mistake. If you think Mr. Garrett is only saying "Like it or leave" to his employees, I've got a nice, fluffy cloud I'd like to sell you ;)

I've heard variations of that exact phrase from several Adobe representatives, directed towards people like me, the customer. I've even heard it from the esteemed Al Mooney, though to his credit, he later offered a sincere apology. I have no idea what Al and his colleagues in development and support really think of the new business model, but it must be hard for them when millions of potential customers won't use their best work because of an experimental business model. On the other hand, I know exactly what management thinks. They've politely told me to fu*k off and they don't seem to care. It's quite a shame because I really like their software and used to be a big evangelist.

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "It is fair to say that without their online digital iTunes/app store that neither the iPhone nor the iPad would have enjoyed any kind of success. One could argue that Adobe is copying a concept already made successful by the likes of Apple, Google and Amazon, which Microsoft is also endorsing. However: 2008 was certainly a wake-up call for many companies stuck in a traditional market. "

I'm the first to admit that Apple loves locking customers into its ecosystem. Want to use FCPX? Buy a Mac. Want to use ApplePay? Buy a new iPhone. Etc. But Adobe's new model is nothing like these other companies.

The big difference is Apple, Google, Amazon, and even Microsoft all give you an option to keep what you buy. In this class of vendors, only Adobe is forcing customers to pay rent forever or lose the ability to open their digital files. Even Microsoft knows that they would never be able to get away with this if they tried forcing it on Office users. Yes you can rent Office, but you can also buy perpetual copies if you want.

Re: 2008 - The wake-up call of 2008 was that deregulating Wall Street, letting the bankster gamblers run the house, was a recipe for global financial disaster. These same clowns are the ones driving Adobe Management to bet the farm on the CC experiment. No one knows what 2017 will look like. And Wall Street doesn't care - if things don't pan out, they'll pull their chips and find another game to play.


[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "IMHO Adobe has taken a solid product offering: Reduced the price and upped the speed of delivery of a vastly improved product in return for a bit of customer loyalty. That for me is a win-win."

I understand and am happy you have a choice that works for you. All I and millions of customers like me are saying is that we want a choice that works for us too. There are many ways Adobe could do this and still encourage subscriber loyalty and recurring revenue. Avid's new model is just one example.

But according to Mr. Garrett:
"...you have to nudge them to the new model, slowly but surely, by not giving them a new option any more. To do that you have to look at yourself in the mirror and say, ‘The customer is better off with the new model.’"
There you have it. No option. "The customer is better off" because we say so. Like it or leave.

_______________________
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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe CFO: our (new) way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 8:59:18 pm

The question arises, what has some adobe employeed venting dissent?
Could it be inside info that will some how affect the company in the long run?
Do they feel that adobes development projections are unrealistic?
Have they heard of an ulterior motive for the whole cc effort?

ricardo marty


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our (new) way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 9:03:21 pm

Hey David,

That is a long post for not owing up to the fact that the CFO never said "Like it or leave." about the Adobe customer.

[David Lawrence] "I've heard variations of that exact phrase from several Adobe representatives,"

Name them! Or stop putting words in their mouth.

[David Lawrence] " it must be hard for them when millions of potential customers won't use their best work because of an experimental business model."

Name those too! At least provide a tangible number for CS6 owners who have categorically stated that they will not upgrade due to Adobe's change of business model. "Millions" does not count unless you can actual name every single one of them.

[David Lawrence] "Avid's new model is just one example."

Avid is a bad like-for-like comparison as their core product only does one part of the multiple products found in Adobe CC. I think that once you get calculator out that you will find that Avid is a more expensive option.

In any case, it is disappointing that you so blatantly are putting words in the mouth of the Adobe CFO, when he never said such thing about the Adobe customer.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our (new) way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 9:30:50 pm

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "Name them! Or stop putting words in their mouth."

".... if you don't want to buy our products, just don't buy them. And, you know, SHUT UP."
April 2014, Al Mooney, Product Manager for Adobe Premiere Pro



To be fair to Al, he did offer a sincere apology and deleted the tweet. I have nothing but the highest respect for the Al and all the Adobe developers and support staff. My problem is with Adobe management's attitude toward their customers.

So you want names, there a name for you. I don't have time to dig up the other examples but they do exist. Please understand, I'm not trying to change your mind about CC. I'm just advocating for a fair choice for the users who don't want to rent Adobe software.

_______________________
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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our (new) way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 9:57:41 pm

[David Lawrence] "Please understand, I'm not trying to change your mind about CC. I'm just advocating for a fair choice for the users who don't want to rent Adobe software."

Fair enough.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 12:23:57 am

[Ricardo Marty] "Adobe'S stock has been stuck in a rut for the last couple of months, beetween high 60's and low 70's"

And since August 2011 Adobe's stock have gone from below 30 to the 72.73 it is at now. You really have to be an evil pessimist to look at that being bad... ;-)

I don't know where Adobe is going next, but I am more than happy with the current strategy and even if they only convert 50% of their "old" customer base on to CC then that would be a good place to be.

The full Adobe CC package is cheaper like-for-like than Adobe CS - and Adobe still have plenty of room to entice specific markets with that with good value deals.

With their share-price and revenue continuing upwards, then I don't think that the company is about to disintegrate into dust (even some here try to make it sound like that) - quite to the contrary, they can afford to keep on improving CC to a level where it is the must have product. If that doesn't work, they still have at least two other strong line of products for other markets than the CC.

Just saying..

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 2:48:16 am
Last Edited By Ricardo Marty on Jan 17, 2015 at 3:36:17 am

Adobe is still loosing money, whatever they make is mostly from cs sales and the marketing cloud. in wall street whats important is today, yesterday is not. they are behind in their expected revenue.

and yes i want cc only, to fail. and to most of us is not a cost issue even though its more expensive than the previous cs6 and its full off apps that most of us dont need.

if your happy good for you, but dont belittle those of us that think otherwise nothing that you say is new to us nor relevant.

ricardo marty


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David Miller
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 3:08:36 am

I think that the thing that will be most telling will be if Adobe begins missing their subscription projections. So far, they have managed to add the numbers they were expecting to. But if those numbers begin to fall short of projections, then it will likely be the case that Adobe will have run out of the early adopters (the "low hanging fruit", if you will) and will then be facing the hard sell of the remainder of their customer base who do not want to go the subscription route.

Should it be the case that this begins to happen, then we'll see how much stomach the shareholders and upper management of Adobe have for this "business model" adventure they've embarked on.

It would then become more apparent that their hard line won't work, and they will then be forced to reconsider the possibility of revisiting the addition of a perpetual license option. Especially if, by that time, some competitors have begun to spring up and to draw away some of Adobe's customer base. They will then have to weigh the timing of possible losses of market share vs how long they wait to make a decision to reconsider a perpetual option.

As I said before, it will be interesting to see how it all goes down.

- David


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 3:29:25 am
Last Edited By Ricardo Marty on Jan 17, 2015 at 3:40:43 am

the subscription projection is tied to the revenue projection. when they started they stated their goal as 4 million subscribers at $49.00 and others at $19.00. Six month latter they had special $29.00 subscritipns plus a bunch of free one year subscription. then they came out with the ps subscription and then more fire sale subscription. last fall they where almost giving them away in europe. this explains there continuing loss of money then you need to add the churn rate. adobes finacial division is probobly its most creative dept.

ricardo marty


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 2:04:00 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "yes i want cc only, to fail"

I think that really sums up your opinions - it sounds sad and bitter. But hey, every person their point of view.

You are right, there are nothing that I can say, suggest or argue that will change your mind. But to say that you want CC to fail, is also suggesting that you want those millions of professionals already using it, to fail too?

All the Best
Mads

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Gary Huff
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 2:28:27 pm

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "But to say that you want CC to fail, is also suggesting that you want those millions of professionals already using it, to fail too?"

Apparently so, or at least to have to turn around and spend $2500 up front to get a new Master Collection version. Is that what you want me to have to end up doing, Ricardo? That seems awfully mean.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 4:38:29 pm
Last Edited By Ricardo Marty on Jan 17, 2015 at 4:39:39 pm

gary, first i dont need the master collection i have cs6 video apps and they are all i use..
if cc fails they will offer perpetual option again, if not we have been through this before, remember edit,fcp,velocity, and a coyple more which i cant remember.

ricardi marty


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 9:26:00 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "If they cant fill their expectation from the low hanging fruit what makes them think that the mote inaccesabile fruit will?"

Time. The are a lot of CS6 users and a lot of FCP 7 users that still haven't switched but eventually they will have to as new versions of operating systems, plugins, camera codecs, etc., won't be compatible with those older NLEs. If you are coming from CS6 then going to CC is a no brainer in terms of workflow and learning curve. If you are coming from FCP 7 then going with CC presents the lowest barrier in terms of workflow and learning curve.

I'm glad he mentioned 2016/2017 as the targeted years for revenue to start returning because that affirms my guesses that Adobe was on a 5ish year plan when they wen all in with CC. If the revenue doesn't start coming back Adobe will change course and I'm sure people inside Adobe are already formulating various options.


[David Lawrence] "And then you tell these customers to "Like it or leave." What an attractive business relationship model. Doesn't that make you want to rush to sign up right now? How can it possibly fail? lol!"

It's worked out pretty well for Apple. ;)


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 10:28:30 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "It's worked out pretty well for Apple. ;)"

Yes it certainly did. Why is that? I'd say that's because Apple has the exact opposite attitude and business strategy from Adobe. Here's a recent quote from Tim Cook:
“We design our products to surprise and delight everyone who uses them, and we never, ever analyze the return on investment. We do it because it is just and right, and that is what respect for human dignity requires, and its a part of Apple I’m especially proud of.”

source: http://www.imore.com/tim-cook-it-all-comes-down-human-dignity

Here's some more good reading:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2014/03/07/why-tim-cook-doesnt-car...

Let's compare this to Mr. Garrett's recent quotes in the WSJ:
"Fourth, burn the boats. At some point along the way, you have to say this is the right answer and a new strategy. You can’t go back. From an employee point of view, there will be some who resist change. They have to get on board or leave, because frankly we are focused on this and this is the new direction."
"From a customer perspective, they are like anybody. They like doing things the way they’ve always been done. At first, you give them a choice of buying the old and new way. A lot will fall back and not move to a subscription model. But you have got to get to the point where you say to the customer, we’re not updating a perpetual product. It’s a major milestone."
"From an employee perspective you have to stick to your guns and say, ‘Like it or leave.’ From a customer point of view, you have to nudge them to the new model, slowly but surely, by not giving them a new option any more. To do that you have to look at yourself in the mirror and say, ‘The customer is better off with the new model.’"
"“We design our products to surprise and delight everyone who uses them, and we never, ever analyze the return on investment. We do it because it is just and right..."

vs

"Burn the boats..." "get on board or leave..." "...you have to nudge them to the new model, slowly but surely, by not giving them a new option any more."

The contrast in language is remarkable.

If Adobe feared real market competition, they would never risk treating their customers this way. The fact that they quickly came out with a discounted "Photographer's bundle" is proof of this.

If Adobe's new business model "surprised and delighted" customers to such a degree that it was irresistible, there would be no reason to force it on the market. The market would naturally be attracted to it because the offerings were so good and so much better than the competition.

Just like Apple's.

Maybe I'm crazy, but forcing customers to either buy into a hated business model or leave seems lightyears away from "surprise and delight".

Good luck, Mr. Garrett. See you in 2017.

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Oliver Peters
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 10:46:41 pm

[David Lawrence] ""“We design our products to surprise and delight everyone who uses them, and we never, ever analyze the return on investment. We do it because it is just and right..."
vs
"Burn the boats..." "get on board or leave..." "...you have to nudge them to the new model, slowly but surely, by not giving them a new option any more."
The contrast in language is remarkable."


Well... I think that's just playing with words. Actions are quite different. If you look at how Apple handled the FCP X launch, it pretty much falls right in line with a "get on board or leave" attitude. Just saying' ...

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 17, 2015 at 11:03:17 pm

[Oliver Peters] "Well... I think that's just playing with words. Actions are quite different. If you look at how Apple handled the FCP X launch, it pretty much falls right in line with a "get on board or leave" attitude. Just saying' .."

Doesn't that kinda prove my point? Remember how spectacularly successful and well-recieved the FCPX roll out was? Just saying' … ;)

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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 1:01:57 am

Apple tells consumers what they want and if the consumers don't like it they can take a hike. Apple (Jobs especially) is just really good at slipping a velvet glove over that iron fist. On the consumer side just look at the community of people that Jailbreak their iPhones (a product that when it first launched didn't even let users change the background image). On the more professional side, there's a pretty good (if old) blog post from Ron Brinkmann (one of the co-founders of Nothing Real, makers of Shake) talking a bit about how life changed once Apple bought the company.

"Before Apple bought Shake, customer feedback drove about 90% of the features we’d put into the product. But that’s not how Apple rolls – for them a high end customers are high-bandwidth in terms of the attention they require relative to the revenue they return. After the acquisition I remember sitting in a roomful of Hollywood VFX pros where Steve told everybody point-blank that we/Apple were going to focus on giving them powerful tools that were far more cost-effective than what they were accustomed to… but that the relationship between them and Apple wasn’t going to be something where they’d be driving product direction anymore. Didn’t go over particularly well, incidentally, but I don’t think that concerned Steve overmuch… :-)"

https://digitalcomposting.wordpress.com/2011/06/28/x-vs-pro/

Basically, dear users, you will like whatever it is that we give you and if you aren't okay with that don't let the door hit you on the way out.

The Apple fan base is used to being dictated to and takes it as par for the course though. I mean, how many users were happy about things like the soldered in RAM and SSDs for the rMBPs and new Mac Minis? Or the lack of GPU options? Or the Mac Pro line not being updated for five years? Or Apple-imposed limitations on which iDevices can run which iOS versions? Don't like it? Go someplace else.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 1:51:47 am

Yes but you buy and keep. mark adobes cfo words it will be exactlty the same when they increase the subscription price only to realize that you are stuck with them becase your work depends on their whim.


ricardo marty


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Dave LaRonde
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 3:12:46 am

I don't beleve for a minute that this Garrett guy takes his own words to heart.
"Burn the boats.." If the guy actuslly believed it, CS6 wouldn't still be availabe for purchase. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that two-versions-old suite of applications is helping Adobe stay profitable. Helping a LOT.
Burn the boats? Yeah, right.....

Dave LaRonde
Promotion Producer
KGAN (CBS) & KFXA (Fox) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 3:38:58 am

adobe stated that cs6 would be updated for 2 windows versions.that was said when w7 was out so i asume w10. will be the last aproved os for cs6

ricardo marty


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 9:46:48 am

[Ricardo Marty] "adobe stated that cs6 would be updated for 2 windows versions.that was said when w7 was out so i asume w10. will be the last aproved os for cs6"

That sounds right. It is likely to equal reasons of wanting to keep existing customers happy (evidently some doesn't appreciate that ;-) ), and that in certain trade areas a company are required to support a product for a number of years after EOL. If memory serves me right, in the EU it used to be 7 years.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 12:05:09 am

[Dave LaRonde] ""Burn the boats.." If the guy actuslly believed it, CS6 wouldn't still be availabe for purchase. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that two-versions-old suite of applications is helping Adobe stay profitable. Helping a LOT.
Burn the boats? Yeah, right....."


This particular point seemed obvious to me long time ago. If they're so sure of the complete wisdom of their 2-year old "customer can take it or leave it" business model, then why not burn down access to new seats of CS6 PLs RIGHT NOW?

Eventually CS6 will die anyway, it cant last forever. In the meantime Adobe is pretending CS6 doesn't matter to their bottom line anymore. Yeah, right.

When CS6 truly dies and they still can make a decent profit from discounted subscriptions, then what the CFO said will be true. Until then , horsepuckies....


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 12:18:26 am

[Chris Pettit] "This particular point seemed obvious to me long time ago. If they're so sure of the complete wisdom of their 2-year old "customer can take it or leave it" business model, then why not burn down access to new seats of CS6 PLs RIGHT NOW? "

Adobe pulls an Apple X-bomb and immediately halts CS6 sales when CC is launched: WTF Adobe!? Why do you have to be such a dick and not give people a transition period?

Adobe keeps selling CS6 after CC is launched: WTF Adobe!? Why are you being such a noncommittal dick? Don't you believe in yourself?

;)


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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 12:23:56 am

[Andrew Kimery] "Adobe keeps selling CS6 after CC is launched: WTF Adobe!? Why are you being such a noncommittal dick? Don't you believe in yourself?"

The "burn the boats" comments didn't come from me Andrew. They came from Adobe's CFO.

It's been 2 years. If its time to burn the boats, then do it. But they wont will they?


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 12:52:33 am

[Chris Pettit] "The "burn the boats" comments didn't come from me Andrew. They came from Adobe's CFO.

It's been 2 years. If its time to burn the boats, then do it. But they wont will they?"


I know it's from the CFO. I'm just poking fun at the fact that no matter what Adobe does some in this forum will give the flak.

Adobe already burned the boats and isn't that precisely what has some people so upset? In 2012 you could buy a PL of CS6 or you could subscribe to CC and get CS6, but now PL users are landed locked. There is no PL boat to new software, there is only the CC boat.


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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 1:50:43 am

[Andrew Kimery] ". I'm just poking fun at the fact that no matter what Adobe does some in this forum will give the flak."

Some people just hate Adobe. Agenda. Gotcha

Funny how that started right when they announced mandatory subscriptions. I'm having trouble finding all the posts slamming Adobe in April of 2013 VS May of 2013.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 2:02:04 am
Last Edited By Andrew Kimery on Jan 20, 2015 at 2:04:59 am

[Chris Pettit] "Funny how that started right when they announced mandatory subscriptions. I'm having trouble finding all the posts slamming Adobe in April of 2013 VS May of 2013."

I'm not getting the point you are trying to make. Of course the people that hate Adobe for only offering subscriptions didn't start hating Adobe until they started only offering subscriptions, and short of Adobe ceasing to only offer subscriptions those people will never stop hating Adobe.

At least that's the gist I've gotten from this forum.


EDIT:
Isn't your agenda (as well as David's, Jim's, etc.,) to generate enough consumer backlash against Adobe that Adobe has no choice but to start offering PLs again in some capacity?


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 3:38:46 am

[Andrew Kimery] "Isn't your agenda (as well as David's, Jim's, etc.,) to generate enough consumer backlash against Adobe that Adobe has no choice but to start offering PLs again in some capacity?"

I wouldn't frame it that way Andrew. Speaking only for myself, my agenda is to get Adobe to recognize that they are leaving millions of paying customers and dollars on the table. That their new model is not perfect for everyone and there are ways to change it that would be fair and attractive to all. Even some Adobe employees apparently agree, otherwise their CFO wouldn't be telling them to "Like it or leave" in the WSJ.

I want a win-win for Adobe and for former customers like myself. "Burn the boats" is not my idea of a good way to get there.

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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 21, 2015 at 5:59:38 am

[Andrew Kimery] "the people that hate Adobe for only offering subscriptions didn't start hating Adobe until they started only offering subscriptions"
No. I know a lot users, who changed their sight at (started to hate) Adobe exactly at the start of the NoChoice Strategy.
Including me.
And the comments through many (nearby all user-) websites changed dramatically after they decided to take money for the use of your archives / make software a credit like business.
(After their NoChoice Decision their own community servers where bombed by negative voices in a way never seen before)


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 21, 2015 at 7:29:03 am

[Rainer Schubert] "No. I know a lot users, who changed their sight at (started to hate) Adobe exactly at the start of the NoChoice Strategy."

I think you might have misread my post as that's what I was saying. Many people that were formerly supportive of Adobe became very critical due to CC and will continue to be critical until Adobe starts offering perpetual licenses again.


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 21, 2015 at 9:34:25 am

Upps - think I have to go back to school - My knowledge of englisch is ...


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 21, 2015 at 9:36:37 am

[Rainer Schubert] "Upps - think I have to go back to school - My knowledge of englisch is ..."

Don't worry about, my Danisch is equally bad :-)

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 21, 2015 at 9:00:54 am

[Rainer Schubert] "they decided to take money for the use of your archives / make software a credit like business."

Not true, Adobe will not keep or take your archive away. Rainer, why do you keep up with these IMHO falsehoods?
Your archive is yours to keep on what ever format you choose to have it on. If you wish to make changes to materials stored in your archive, you can use any tool to do so, or do a quick monthly rental with Adobe and use their tools.
But as with hanging a picture on the wall, you get to keep the nail, frame, picture and even the wall - however, if you want to move the nail, you have the option to choose a different hammer...

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 21, 2015 at 9:27:32 am
Last Edited By Rainer Schubert on Jan 21, 2015 at 9:38:05 am

There is actual no application, that can open a Adobe Premiere File (with full functionality).
(Same with AI & InDes at the moment, until Quark is UpToDate - and only a matter of time, when it´s the same for the complete suite)
So Adobe takes your money for using these file formats if you have them at your archive and no subscription.
If I stopped my subscription, I have to pay a monthly fee, only if I want to print out a once created file.
No. They will not take it away. But they will earn money, if I want to use it.
It´s like MY (!) picture at the wall: I have to pay for, if I want to have a look on.
Or like a refrigerator you filled... but Adobe holds the key for… have to subscribe to eat…

What´s wrong with my argument???


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 21, 2015 at 9:35:20 am

[Rainer Schubert] "What´s wrong with my argument???"

One more time for the record: You will still have all of your source files and all of your masters - that is your archive.

[Rainer Schubert] " I have to pay a monthly fee, only if I want to print out a once created file.
No. They will not take it away. But they will earn money, if I want to use it."


No, No, No - it is your choice how to archive your "once created file" in a closed format. However, if you used an open format as a final High resolution Master, then you can print away to your hearts content without ever having to open an Adobe package again.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 21, 2015 at 9:52:23 am

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "then you can print away"

Print out was an example, only.
Clearly you want to edit archived files.
And to do so, there must be an application, which is able to open these original files (again).
Else it´s nearby useless.
And elsewise an archive doesn´t make big sense.

With CS I had the tools to do so, with no need to pay again.
I can decide to use a different software for future work, as I know, I will have the key (CS App) to my once created files in my pocket.

With CC not.
My archive isn´t gone, but I gave the key to Adobe, and will have to pay for the use of my Creations.
Using a different application is totally different under these conditions.

Or?

But I also think, in the field of Video-Editing (which isn´t my main business field) the necessity of using your archive isn´t that important as in other fields of work.


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 21, 2015 at 10:06:25 am

[Rainer Schubert] "Clearly you want to edit archived files.
And to do so, there must be an application, which is able to open these original files (again).
Else it´s nearby useless.
And elsewise an archive doesn´t make big sense."


I do not know what part of the creative business that you work in. However, in my world when mastering corporate, broadcast and feature film projects out for international use, we have to master in such a way that anyone can make local changes on any kit and/or software of their choice. That includes separating out "dirty" elements and adding clean versions - whether it being video with no graphics, graphics without text or voice and music tracks isolated from the natural sound-track.

On the odd occasion where a client/director/producer wishes to "re-open" the project then there are a suitable charge for making that happen - in cases where we don't have the kit such as a specific tape-player, we hire it in for the duration and charge it back to the client.
However, if the masters have been archive correctly, then it is possible to make changes to parts of the project without having to reconstitute the whole project from scratch.

It comes down to getting into the habit of doing a archive that matches potential future requests. Some would argue that it would be more cost-effective to rent Adobe CC for a month, than to go through all the troubles... However, your archive will always be as good and as open as you make it.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
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Scott Witthaus
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 1:44:47 pm

[Oliver Peters] ""get on board or leave""

and most recently, Avid.

Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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Oliver Peters
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 2:28:12 pm

[Scott Witthaus] "and most recently, Avid."

Completely incorrect. Avid's pricing is perpetual, subscription or floating license. Your choice. If you want updates to the perpetual you have to get an annual support contract at $299 a year. This is less than many of the version update costs in the past. Don't want to update because you don't want to buy the support contract? Then fine, you still keep what you bought. How is the the same?

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Scott Witthaus
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 3:52:48 pm

Oliver you misunderstood.

From 10,000 feet it's basically what's in the title of this thread. Here is an end date, do it our way by then or get left off the bus. Sure there are sub-topics as you pointed out, but overall the messaging is similar. Now, Apple on the other hand, basically said "screw you, here's the new tool". :-)

Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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Oliver Peters
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 9:13:59 pm
Last Edited By Oliver Peters on Jan 18, 2015 at 9:19:33 pm

[Scott Witthaus] "Here is an end date, do it our way by then or get left off the bus."

You are making something out of nothing. EVERY company works this way. In the case of product changes and pricing model changes, you have to draw the line somewhere. At least Avid gave you plenty of notice. Months in fact. Not the case with Apple or Adobe. You are ticked off about the 12/31/14 end date. I don't get why. That upgrade allowed very old versions to get current at minimal cost. Not too many companies do that. And even beyond that old versions continue to get patched. There was just a release of 7.0.4 and that didn't require any support contract.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Florian Sepp
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 7:32:32 pm

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "even if they only convert 50% of their "old" customer base on to CC then that would be a good place to be."

where do the other 50% go and who will they give their money?
I would consider this an interesting question for a CFO of a company that has/had a close monoply in its business area.
could well be that with this move they supported the needed competition in this area.

so maybe those that don`t like CC should look at it this way. CC definately gave the competitors a chance. maybe even a boost. (unnecessary if you ask me)

Florian Sepp visual arts
http://www.floriansepp.com


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 8:49:09 pm

[Florian Sepp] "where do the other 50% go and who will they give their money?"

Raises an interesting question: Is Adobe missing a large client base; could it be that most current CS clients haven't upgraded because they don't want to? Or because in their investment cycle they haven't reached the point of having to?
(And no, someone knowing 10 people who doesn't want to, does not count as a quantitative answer)

[Florian Sepp] "I would consider this an interesting question for a CFO of a company that has/had a close monoply in its business area."

Certainly on the video, audio and visual FX Adobe never had a monopoly. Flash is likely to be replaced with HTML-5. Photoshop have had and still has plenty of competition. So no, I don't agree.

[Florian Sepp] "could well be that with this move they supported the needed competition in this area."

Yes, competition is always good and will keep Adobe on their toes.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
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Florian Sepp
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 18, 2015 at 10:07:23 pm

well... right now they are at round about 25% of their userbase that changed. you said even if they just make 50% it would be fine. and I said. if they give away 50% of their user base someone else will make the money.
if they had kept the normal license together with cc they wouldn't have alienated any of their former customers. so basically they gave money to competitors that they hadn`t to. besides ruining their image for a lot of their customers. It just doesn`t sound like the best business decision possible for adobe.
First I thought I couldn't, but now I am quite shure to be able to live without Adobe. I am not angry I just can`t understand it, also from adobes point of view.

but anyway we will see what happens. my guess right now (changing all the time) they will stay with just CC and will loose round about 40% market reach. that will be filled up with a bunch of different software. maybe in 6 Years we will see a real competitor develop out of them. a lot of people will not forget the company that was so afraid of their own loss of innovation, that they forced their customers into a business model a lot of them didn't want. It is often compared to the quark story... and I think that comparison is reasonable....interesting... we will see :)

best regards
Florian

Florian Sepp visual arts
http://www.floriansepp.com


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Steve Connor
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 9:25:26 am

I think Adobe probably realised they were on the right track when Aindreas subscribed!

I think the next year will be interesting, they need to continue to show the value that the CC option gives the user, I don't think that AE users have seen the speed of change that PPro users have seen, but if Adobe were to significantly improve speed in AE then I think that might convert quite a few more people.


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 6:01:55 pm

[Steve Connor] "I think Adobe probably realised they were on the right track when Aindreas subscribed!"

I miss Aindreas in this forum. I would so love an epic Aindreas rant in response to Mr. Garrett! Alas, it is not to be...

[Steve Connor] " think the next year will be interesting, they need to continue to show the value that the CC option gives the user, I don't think that AE users have seen the speed of change that PPro users have seen, but if Adobe were to significantly improve speed in AE then I think that might convert quite a few more people."

Agreed. Speed improvements to AE were mentioned as a priority so perhaps CC 2015 will deliver in that regard. But AE users are still a pretty specialized group. I think the Adobe needs to demonstrate why CC isn't just new versions of the CS desktop software with an internet DRM kill switch that checks for rent pay every so often. They need to demonstrate the value of the cloud in Creative Cloud.

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Steve Connor
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 6:37:20 pm

[David Lawrence] " I think the Adobe needs to demonstrate why CC isn't just new versions of the CS desktop software with an internet DRM kill switch that checks for rent pay every so often. They need to demonstrate the value of the cloud in Creative Cloud."

They've done that already with PPro, CC2014 is considerably better than CS6 and the Speedgrade integration is fantastic.


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 6:51:29 pm

[Steve Connor] "They've done that already with PPro, CC2014 is considerably better than CS6 and the Speedgrade integration is fantastic."

Agreed, but it's still basically desktop software. CC 2014 is essentially CS8 with an internet DRM kill switch. Where's the deep value and integration of the Cloud technology in CC for the customer? I don't see it yet. Do you?

_______________________
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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 6:58:49 pm

[David Lawrence] "Agreed, but it's still basically desktop software. CC 2014 is essentially CS8 with an internet DRM kill switch. Where's the deep value and integration of the Cloud technology in CC for the customer? I don't see it yet. Do you?"

Adobe Story CC + 28 apps (incl PPro, AE, Scout, Speedgrade, Photoshop, Acrobat Pro to mention a few) + Behance + Typekit + market - do you have that in your CS6?

So NO, CS8 with a kill switch is not a correct comparison, unless you have never used CC?

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 21, 2015 at 6:13:39 am

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "Adobe Story CC + 28 apps (incl PPro, AE, Scout, Speedgrade, Photoshop, Acrobat Pro to mention a few) + Behance + Typekit + market - do you have that in your CS6?"

You will have to compare a full CC subscription to the former master collection.
And yes, there is PS, Acrobat+, AE, …
And they would have to show upgrades also over the years for that.
So the "More Apps" argument isn´t placed right (of which most - like the mobile Apps, Behance aso are more gimmicks than professional tools)


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 21, 2015 at 8:55:14 am

[Rainer Schubert] "You will have to compare a full CC subscription to the former master collection.
And yes, there is PS, Acrobat+, AE, …
And they would have to show upgrades also over the years for that.
So the "More Apps" argument isn´t placed right (of which most - like the mobile Apps, Behance aso are more gimmicks than professional tools)"


I'm not sure what your point is?
As if in that: if you were a subscriber, you would know that there are much more to the Adobe CC than just the CS6 Master Collection (lightroom, Muse, edge to mention a few).
What you would also know is that Adobe has re-configured all of their CC programs to be apps, in way that integrates all of them into a nice creative ecosystem. CC users have already experienced this, such as with the vast improved integration between PPro and AE in the latest release.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 21, 2015 at 9:32:56 am

My argument is:
If they wouldn´t have decided to stop the offer a fair license (CS), these Apps/Suites would be on the same Level as CC.
As it was before - the times, where we had the choice (to BUY or pay lifelong)


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Steve Connor
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 7:32:32 pm

[David Lawrence] "Where's the deep value and integration of the Cloud technology in CC for the customer?"

No-one subscribes for the cloud integration, we just subscribe because we love having a kill switch!

Oh and for the fact they are great tools to have in the tool box, especially considering it only costs me one days editing a year to have them.

As I do keep saying though, I understand why people might not want to buy into the CC model though.


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 8:42:51 pm

[Steve Connor] "No-one subscribes for the cloud integration, we just subscribe because we love having a kill switch!

Oh and for the fact they are great tools to have in the tool box, especially considering it only costs me one days editing a year to have them."


Agreed, but serious question, Steve. What is the integral value of CC's cloud technology in your everyday workflow? What essential cloud features are you currently using every day that you wouldn't have with desktop versions of the exact same applications?

_______________________
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Steve Connor
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 8:52:52 pm

[David Lawrence] "Agreed, but serious question, Steve. What is the integral value of CC's cloud technology in your everyday workflow? What essential cloud features are you currently using every day that you wouldn't have with desktop versions of the exact same applications?"

None! the "Cloud" name, at present is mostly just that - a name. Adobe aren't pushing the Creative Cloud as actual cloud technology, surely?


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 9:15:14 pm

[Steve Connor] "None! the "Cloud" name, at present is mostly just that - a name. Adobe aren't pushing the Creative Cloud as actual cloud technology, surely?"

That's my point. Creative Cloud is currently a marketing name and revenue model. This revenue model clearly benefits Adobe and for some customers, it's a good fit. But there's no technical reason why it couldn't be offered as desktop software as well. In order to get more than just the "low hanging fruit" subscribers, I think Adobe must demonstrate that CC is more than just a new way to buy software.

_______________________
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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 9:25:36 pm

[Steve Connor] " Adobe aren't pushing the Creative Cloud as actual cloud technology, surely?"

Not in the same way that Google Docs is Cloud computing, but Adobe has switched it's business model from selling a product (Adobe Master Collection) to selling a service (a subscription to the Adobe Master Collection) so I think it's fair game for consumers to wonder how the change impacts them.

Mads mentioned the cloud-bases services that come with the CC subscription (Behance, the market, etc.,) but nothing is unique or compelling. I mean, I can get the same or better Cloud services from other venders.


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 10:26:52 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "Mads mentioned the cloud-bases services that come with the CC subscription (Behance, the market, etc.,) but nothing is unique or compelling. I mean, I can get the same or better Cloud services from other venders."

Agreed, as in that I rarely, sometimes never, use those services. And yes, there bigger and better alternatives to some of the "add-on" services, but not as integrated into the Adobe CC work-flow - although that still has some way to go.

The bigger issue with all of the (new) extras is about getting into the habit of using them. If the user is not trained and encouraged to use it, or is still working in a preset way, then those tools will take some time to catch on.

However, a newer hungrier generation might look at it differently (no disrespect intended to anyone in here) and will script in Story CC, use prelude on location, before entering a "traditional" post production flow - although with access to apps, font and content libraries. Afterwards then either use media encoder to publish straight to YouTube and/or make a show-case on behance.
It is a tall job to change daily behavior in order to keep up with new and additional work models.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
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Oliver Peters
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 12:11:56 am

[Andrew Kimery] "Not in the same way that Google Docs is Cloud computing, but Adobe has switched it's business model from selling a product (Adobe Master Collection) to selling a service (a subscription to the Adobe Master Collection) so I think it's fair game for consumers to wonder how the change impacts them."

I think the "cloud" term is generally a bunch of baloney. What we are really talking about is remote access using the internet or a LAN as a conduit. In that sense, Avid Media Composer | Cloud, Quantel Qtube and Adobe Anywhere work more or less with the same objective in mind. Of course, each company has their own implementation. All "cloud" services require a server and storage somewhere and in the three examples above, generally you are hosting that hardware. Right now, the closest actual "cloud" editing platform would probably be A-Frame. And of course, someone is hosting those servers.

FWIW - here's more info on Adobe Anywhere and how it's used in the real world:

https://digitalfilms.wordpress.com/2014/07/11/adobe-anywhere/

http://www.creativeplanetnetwork.com/news/post/collaboration-common-media-a...

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 12:23:46 am

[Oliver Peters] "I think the "cloud" term is generally a bunch of baloney. What we are really talking about is remote access using the internet or a LAN as a conduit. In that sense, Avid Media Composer | Cloud, Quantel Qtube and Adobe Anywhere work more or less with the same objective in mind. "

I agree that the name Creative Cloud is misleading/confusing. Case in point, I wasn't referring to remote editing solutions but services like cloud storage, website/portfolio hosting (Behance), distributed computing (a possible future service from Adobe), etc.,. Basically talking about what CC subscribers get besides desktop applications.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 9:28:51 pm

adobe anywhere would be a good cloud based service together with a rendering farm. maybe a photo,sound & video market.

ricardo marty


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 10:12:58 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "maybe a photo,sound & video market."

Seek and you shall find: http://helpx.adobe.com/creative-cloud/help/market.html.

Not ignoring "Adobe to Acquire Fotolia: http://www.adobe.com/news-room/pressreleases/201412/121114adobetoacquirefot...

It's all happening.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 10:25:41 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "adobe anywhere would be a good cloud based service together with a rendering farm. maybe a photo,sound & video market."

Agreed. This is an excellent example and one I would gladly rent when needed. Photoshop? Not so much.

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Steve Connor
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 9:39:38 pm

[David Lawrence] "This revenue model clearly benefits Adobe and for some customers, it's a good fit. But there's no technical reason why it couldn't be offered as desktop software as well. In order to get more than just the "low hanging fruit" subscribers, "

They have taken a gamble on the subscription model, the article makes it clear why they think they can and should do it.

He said "From a customer point of view, you have to nudge them to the new model, slowly but surely, by not giving them a new option any more." that's why there's no other option so if there's no perpetual licenses available in a couple of years we'll know it's worked.

For me and for many others, it's a very simple business decision to subscribe, for others it's not and it looks very much like they aren't about to change their minds anytime soon.


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 10:32:41 pm

[Steve Connor] "He said "From a customer point of view, you have to nudge them to the new model, slowly but surely, by not giving them a new option any more." that's why there's no other option so if there's no perpetual licenses available in a couple of years we'll know it's worked."

Agreed, I've always said this is a long game. The next couple years will be very interesting.

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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 8:51:32 pm

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "Adobe Story CC + 28 apps (incl PPro, AE, Scout, Speedgrade, Photoshop, Acrobat Pro to mention a few) + Behance + Typekit + market - do you have that in your CS6?
"


Nothing has reached 'killer app' status though. Behance, cloud storage, Typekit and the Market are all nice but they feel more like garnish than a part of the main dish (let alone a main dish on their own). The collaboration between Adobe and MediaSilo, even in these early stages, sounds very cool but it's not really part of CC since MediaSilo requires its own subscription too.

What I'd really like to see is something like Adobe's Cloud assisting in heavy renders. The more frequent feature upgrades are great, but that's not something that requires The Cloud or a subscription.


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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 12:19:29 am

[David Lawrence] " Speed improvements to AE were mentioned as a priority so perhaps CC 2015 will deliver in that regard. But AE users are still a pretty specialized group"

Hi David. Happy New Year.

I have my doubts, as a daily user of AE (for now). I've been generally happy with AE speed improvements version to version overall, but as I increasingly move to 4K deliverables I'm not sure it's going to cut it any longer. The entire world appears to be moving to GPU acceleration and I'm being told that AE appears is behind the curve. If conventional wisdom is correct (I'm not an expert on hardware - just repeating what I'm hearing from people I trust) then they have quite a way to go to keep up regarding GPU. If true, this is another HUGE gamble for Adobe's new business model, on top of all the others. Black Magic is very clear about Fusion's GPU capabilities for example.

My hardware guys are strongly advising me to move away from CPU orientation in my thinking in preference for GPU (the new NVidia TITAN is apparently going to be a 12GB monster), and the software has go there with me.


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 21, 2015 at 6:03:40 am

[David Lawrence] "I miss Aindreas in this forum."
Me too.


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Todd Kopriva
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 6:05:17 pm

> "but if Adobe were to significantly improve speed in AE then I think that might convert quite a few more people."


That is exactly what we have nearly the entire After Effects team working on.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Todd Kopriva, Adobe Systems Incorporated
After Effects product manager and curmudgeon
After Effects team blog
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


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Steve Connor
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 6:39:58 pm

[Todd Kopriva] "> "but if Adobe were to significantly improve speed in AE then I think that might convert quite a few more people."


That is exactly what we have nearly the entire After Effects team working on.
"



That's good, I've been using AE more recently as opposed to Motion and I've been shocked how much slower it is. As I said I think if you make a major leap with AE you'll bring many more people on board. It's already been done with Premiere Pro.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 9:21:43 pm

That's great to hear Todd. I remember the blog post from a while ago floating the hypothetical question about focusing on performance vs headline grabbing new features for a bit and it sounds like the team is focusing on performance. Good to know the team has the support w/Adobe to do that and I can't wait for the end result.


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Andy Field
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 6:42:33 pm

Not sure how many folks angry with the CC subscription model actually use it, but from a users perspective it has been fantastic.

1 - we upgraded every year - virtually the cost of CC (actually less with CC because of early subscription discounts

2 - constant usable improvement updates across the board

3 - Premiere, Audition, AE are now easier, faster and more efficient than anything we used prior to this (Primarily FCP 7)

I have no problem supporting a corporation that constantly improves the product and makes our job easier....less time spent on rendering, crashing means more time making money from more satisfied clients....what was most aggravating in the end with FCP 7 was the constant rendering and crashing (especially with XDCAM and long GOP formats) With Premiere's latest version - you can throw virtually any format in a timeline - no transcoding - and just edit - decide your output format at the end - send it off to Adobe Media Encoder and let it churn away in the background - while you get back to editing - all in real time.

IF you stick with CS 6...you're stuck in a very distant, buggy inefficient past.

Andy Field
FieldVision Productions
N. Bethesda, Maryland 20852


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 19, 2015 at 6:52:36 pm
Last Edited By Jim Wiseman on Jan 19, 2015 at 6:57:13 pm

>Andy Field: "IF you stick with CS 6...you're stuck in a very distant, buggy inefficient past."

But at least we are not truly "stuck", as in for life...

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.1.4, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.5, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1 TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD


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Oliver Peters
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 1:02:43 am

[Tim Wilson] "Too many numbers for me, man. .....It will help me follow your reply if you have charts. LOL"

For me, the only numbers that matter are what local facilities are buying, since that affects me as a freelancer. By that metric, I see little or no reluctance to buy into the CC model. That includes shops that also have FCP 7 and/or FCP X.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 1:07:04 am

[Oliver Peters] "For me, the only numbers that matter are what local facilities are buying, since that affects me as a freelancer. By that metric, I see little or no reluctance to buy into the CC model. That includes shops that also have FCP 7 and/or FCP X."

I'm in a similar boat (ha!), Oliver.


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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 2:07:21 am

[Andy Field] "
IF you stick with CS 6...you're stuck in a very distant, buggy inefficient past."


Buggy. That's your argument. That the software released by the company whose new policies you defend is "buggy"?

CS6 will not last forever, and by comparison to new versions, will eventually be inefficient. but it is simply NOT buggy, never has been, it is excellent software.

I am profoundly critical of Adobe policy, but even in the midst of that criticism I would never denigrate good apps.

This is one of the most perplexing things I've found about this whole discussion, that the defenders of Adobes new brute force business plan are perfectly willing to actually denigrate the software made by the same company.


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Andy Field
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 5:42:18 am

I wrote distant buggy inefficient past....and you picked buggy out of the three. ALL software has bugs...that's why it's updated...the nearly dozen new versions since then are light years better than cs 6....should I chose to hold my breath , have a tantrum because Im offended I have to pay for the work that went into making my job easier and more efficient? Or write off the cost of doing business with a subscription to software that keeps improving. It appears you're happy with several years old technology...good for you....I'm pleased with tremendous new features tha help me get work done faster.


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Herbert van der wegen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 23, 2015 at 10:33:09 am

Interesting: from a web developer point of view, the products become worse and worse with each update. No more Fireworks, Dreamweaver features are killed off with every new release, and Flash is not faring much better with missing functionality in the newest versions compared to the older ones.

And Adobe CC Edge Code is also no longer developed. So, since the introduction of the CC rental only model it means LESS features, and LESS applications for web developers.

Then again, it is my opinion that Adobe never understood either the web or web developers in the first place.

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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 23, 2015 at 10:40:33 am

Hey Herbert,

[Herbert van der wegen] " it is my opinion that Adobe never understood either the web or web developers in the first place."

That is a really interesting observation. I was under the impression that HTML 5 would be a game changer for Adobe, but not quite understood if they could improve flash within a web environment to compete.

A part from what is missing; in your opinion what can Adobe do to look after the web developers?

What would be the alternative to using Dreamweaver?

And dare I ask you about Muse?

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 23, 2015 at 12:55:49 pm

agree.
Competition is growing & doin much better in this field.
I don´t see a necessity for a use of Adobe if your business is web-design.


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David Mathis
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 1:47:42 am

Priceless! I think it will be interesting times ahead especially when Fusion makes its way over to the Mac platform. I will certainaly use it in conjunction with Motion. Now if Resolve becomes a great NLE as well, could be a huge game changer.


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Billy Payn
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 4:24:49 pm

Interesting use of language on the CFO's part, 'burn' the boats - no way back. This conjures up images for me of war time, desperate measures, destroy it so that your enemy can't use it.
Then...'nudge' I'm being nudged! but the CEO of the company said they were 'aggressively' moving people towards the subscription model, so am I being 'aggressively nudged'?
Nudging can work both ways, if enough people don't buy into the subscription model, maybe Adobe will feel 'nudged' into having to have a rethink, so I'm kind of passively 'nudging them back' so to speak.
As far as CS6 is concerned, for me it's working fine, it's actually rock solid on my machine which is 5 years old now, though I'll probably change it soon, W7 and CS6, more ram and faster processors with a bigger graphics card. Good to go.
I'm editing in either ProRes or Cineform, and even though it means data needs converting (for cineform) I don't think either of these codecs are going away very soon.
I'm not sure there is enough evidence that Adobe's move to subscription only has been unpopular, I personally only know 10 or so people who think this way, though I know the same number of people who have bought in, a couple of those were not 'owners' of CS6 as such, rather came by it through other means.
If I consider the figures though, if from 12 million customers there are 3 million subscribers, doesn't that leave 9 million customers unsubscribed? give or take, and consider those who subscribed because they found they could afford the £50 per month whereas they wouldn't have stumped up over £2k for the Production package as it was, if this is a 3rd or so, (pure conjecture, but perhaps the nice people at Adobe would care to enlighten us here) that could leave as many as 10 million people not subscribing....five sixths....still got doubts?
I would upgrade every other release of the software, and this would cost me £600 roughly, so £300 per year ish, pretty happy with that, (my investment so far adds up to over £4k not including plugins) not happy to be 'nudged' into a £600 a year contract with nothing to show at the end if I chose to opt out. So I'm not going to opt in in the first place, thanks for the offer.
Amazing that there are some quite strong reactions to those who take the trouble to voice their displeasure at Adobe for this move of theirs, it's amusing actually in a way, Adobe have made their software available to people in a new way, making it more accessible to people who hadn't considered it before, at the same time, making it unattractive to many people who stuck with them through the development of the products, sometimes when they were less than useful, upgrading to software which really was in some cases underdeveloped and seemed not ready for release, or sounded great but was not.
This is mind bogglingly brilliant software, anything you can imagine, you can do. However, the behaviour of the management of the company, in making the cynical moves of subscription only, and of moving to a support system that is woefully (to my mind)'underhelpful', shows that they care more about the bottom line than about the customer or the customer experience, I'm not interested in investing in that business model, or saddling myself to that pony.
(yes, I was bored)



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David Miller
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 5:29:25 pm

I think David Lawrence's earlier comments are right on.

Adobe's decision to go sub-only has alienated millions of their customers and also left millions of dollars on the table. Had they decided to allow both avenues (i.e. subscription as well as perpetual) they could have had the best of both worlds....many would have opted in for CC sub, and others would have chosen the more traditional perpetual variation. In either case, Adobe would have been serving their customer base in as complete a fashion as possible.

But they decided to do only part of the equation, and now they've got a lot of ill will building against them. And they have likely caused themselves future grief by leaving an opening that other companies may now attempt to fill (witness the company called Serif developing its own 3-program suite for the Mac platform).

The only way that Adobe will change their mind is if they begin missing their subscription signup targets, and thus begin to fall behind in their revenue projections. Money talks.

It will be interesting to see where things go with this. They seem to be pointing to 2016 or 2017 as their targets for turning the corner and stabilizing the company's income based on this sub-only approach. But the point is, they could have had all of that and more sooner if they had not approached this in such a narrow-minded manner. And they could have saved a lot of customer grief as well.

- David


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 5:46:26 pm

Hey David & All,

[David Miller] "Adobe's decision to go sub-only has alienated millions of their customers"

There are no substance in the statement that Adobe "has alienated millions of their customers" - are there anyone on this forum and anywhere else that can prove that?
Wouldn't the streets be paved with rioters? And the likes of FCP and Avid and other competitors suddenly have million customers more in their accounts.
The statement is unproven superstitions on behalf of a small angry mob ;-)

If anything, revenue is still growing at Adobe, so all of those "alienated" & "missing" customers can't be that far gone?

Seriously, the 2016/2017 indicator is where it is at - this is the point where those customers who is on a long term budget projection are looking to upgrade/invest in new software and hardware. Until then, no one can claim that the roof has caved in at Adobe. Or that there are millions missing.

Do also factor in that you get two CC installations for the price of one, so I would not be surprised if quite a few sole-traders/SME's made use of that too.

Just saying...

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
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David Miller
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 6:50:26 pm

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "The statement is unproven superstitions on behalf of a small angry mob ;-)
"



Yup....a "small angry mob" that currently resides within a population numbering approximately 9 million! ;)

As noted earlier, time will tell which side is correct. Adobe started this CC thing about 2 years ago, and so far has gotten a little over 1 in 4 customers to buy into it.

There is the possibility that ultimately Adobe's current approach will win out....there is also the possibility that it won't.

In the meantime, one cannot deny that there has been resistance (for whatever reason) on the part of the majority of Adobe's customer base to go sub-only. Adobe is still missing nearly 75% of their customer base on the sub-only signup sheets. It will be interesting to see how many more show up there.

And if they don't meet their 2016 or 2017 target, look for them to change their target to 2018 or 2019! ;)

- David


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 7:11:54 pm

[David Miller] "Yup....a "small angry mob" that currently resides within a population numbering approximately 9 million! ;)"

I agree with that. So we will wait and see how the other 8,999,967 will make their next purchase decision for creative creation software... :-)

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 7:12:15 pm

the company is not making much money in fact its making less.how long can investers hold? if this dosent change their will be a seloff, thats the why of the buyback

also we have to take in consideration that their might be enourmous amonts of cracked adode software specialy in asian countries and thosr are lost revenue.


ricardo marty


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 7:13:05 pm

[David Miller] "And if they don't meet their 2016 or 2017 target, look for them to change their target to 2018 or 2019! ;) "

Yep, and by then who knows what other options will be available?

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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 7:25:03 pm

[David Lawrence] "Yep, and by then who knows what other options will be available?"

If more options become available isn't that a good thing though? I guess it's hard for me to see Adobe going CC as a completely negative thing when there are so many potentially positive for users things that can come out of it (such as increase or even new competition).


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Florian Sepp
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 10:33:14 pm

im not shure about that. back in the days you always had to support different software pakages like illustrator and freehand and even correl. the last 10 years or so it was more or less adobe. you didn't had to ask ... you just sent a psd or ai or so. this was easy and pleasent. and of corse a reason to complain about monopoly, that turned out to be right as we see now.

Florian Sepp visual arts
http://www.floriansepp.com


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 7:07:01 pm

[David Miller] "Adobe's decision to go sub-only has alienated millions of their customers and also left millions of dollars on the table."

One minute people are saying Adobe is acting like a greedy bastard for turning their user base into life long renters, but then they are saying Adobe is stupid for leaving so much money on the table. Leaving money on the table doesn't sound like something a greed company would do. Is Adobe too greedy or are they not greedy enough? Or maybe they are some sort of delayed gratification type of greedy willing to lose a few pennies today so they can greedily stuff dollar bills in their greedy pockets tomorrow? Of course that doesn't jive with the popular conspiracy theory that Adobe's top brass are merely pumping up the stock price so they can cash out before the company collapses which would represent short term greed, not long term greed.

It's like Adobe is some sort money-grubbing riddle wrapped in a greedy mystery, stuffed inside an enigma concocted by Ebenezer Scrooge. I think I'm just going to fall back to my previous statement that no matter what Adobe does some people will complain about it. ;)


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 7:09:59 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "One minute people are saying Adobe is acting like a greedy bastard for turning their user base into life long renters, but then they are saying Adobe is stupid for leaving so much money on the table. "

These two things are not mutually exclusive. Just saying'. ;)

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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 7:19:33 pm

[David Lawrence] "These two things are not mutually exclusive. Just saying'. ;)"

So they fall into the middle ground between "too greedy" and "not quite greedy enough"? ;)


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 8:09:40 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "So they fall into the middle ground between "too greedy" and "not quite greedy enough"? ;)"

No, what I think we're saying is well described in this little story ;)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Goose_That_Laid_the_Golden_Eggs

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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 8:16:02 pm

[David Lawrence] "No, what I think we're saying is well described in this little story ;)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Goose_That_Laid_the_Golden_Eggs"


The CC Goose apparently lays a much nicer stock price though. ;)


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 8:32:19 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "The CC Goose apparently lays a much nicer stock price though. ;)"

Maybe now, let's check in again in 2016-17. ;)

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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 8:47:06 pm

[David Lawrence] "Maybe now, let's check in again in 2016-17. ;)"

ditto on annual revenue and subscriber numbers too.

Speaking of user numbers, when people say Adobe has 12 million users is that all encompassing? I mean, is someone that hasn't upgraded since CS3 counted?


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Steve Connor
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 9:15:14 pm

Are those 9 million all people who had CS or Master collection or does it include single title owners? Are a lot of them customers but only buy the latest version every few years?

Just saying a large chunk of them might not actually be that valuable to Adobe!


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 9:21:16 pm

[Steve Connor] "Just saying a large chunk of them might not actually be that valuable to Adobe!"

Agreed, but the same holds true for the 3-million CC subscriber numbers. How many of those are paying full price for the full CC suite? How many are trial users? How many are subscribed at a discounted rate? How many are single app or Photoshop Bundle users? What is the churn rate? Hard to predict the long term revenue stream with this many variables.

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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 21, 2015 at 6:51:05 am
Last Edited By Rainer Schubert on Jan 21, 2015 at 6:55:14 am

Reminder: Only 61% of actual cloud subscribers are FULL product users (roundabout 2 m).
Rest are on Point Products (PS community)

The former 12.8 (!) m (as I understand it) are users with an Adobe ID and ever bought a license of Creative Suite CS.
Regarding to their investors handout of may 2013 there were 8.8 mil. CS Suites (4.1 of that were on CS6) and 4.4 mil. Point Products.
But this is not actual, because they sold a lot more licenses of CS since that day.
Until Q2/14 CS was sold much better than CC.

Inv. Hand 2013: 6105_adbeinvestorhandoutmay2013.pdf.zip


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David Miller
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 9:27:17 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "Speaking of user numbers, when people say Adobe has 12 million users is that all encompassing? I mean, is someone that hasn't upgraded since CS3 counted?
"



That's a good question.

My earlier reference to 12 million users was based on a financial article that I had read after Adobe's last earnings report. That total had been mentioned in that article. When I went back to look for where I saw that, I could not find that particular article.

In looking further, I managed to dredge up an article from an earlier earnings report back in late August of last year, and that one referenced the following:

"While Creative products (Creative Suite and Creative Cloud) contributed nearly 50% to Adobe's revenue in 2013, the total number of licensees for Adobe's creative products stood at 12.8 million. Currently we estimate that the company is well underway to add over 3.4 million subscribers in 2014, and on track to add 10.8 million subscribers by the end of 2020. This figures represents 80% of the current 12.8 million point and suite licensees."

Reference: http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/08/28/adobe-is-overvalue...

They are apparently presuming a constant upward linear trajectory in their projections. They don't consider the possibility that the acceptance rate could slow down either a little or even a lot.

But beyond all of this, there's also the news item (in the last 2 years or so) to back when Adobe had the security breach and it was reported that 38 million accounts were compromised. So the question becomes...who exactly were those 38 million accounts? Every person who has ever purchased something from Adobe? Mostly creative software purchase accounts? Or some other collection or combination of accounts?

Things that make you go "hmmmmmmmm".

- David


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David Mathis
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 9:55:12 pm

Another number of things can happen between now the 2020 forecast. There has been much change recently. Fusion has been recently acquired by BMD and no more subscription plan. It could be bundled with Resolve in another package. Resolve could be a NLE and finishing tool, heading that direction. Need to address playback issues. Fusion could be an easy replacement for both AE and Photoshop in a film post- production workflow. Resolve could compete with Premiere Pro, time will tell.

So will, the acceptance factor of subscription only. That is going to be the main obstacle and if someone else has a suite of tools that does not lock someone into rental only, who knows what will happen.

Too many variables to make a viable prediction in my opinion.


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Florian Sepp
Re: Adobe CFO: our way or....
on Jan 20, 2015 at 11:10:10 pm

[David Miller] "on track to add 10.8 million subscribers by the end of 2020. This figures represents 80% of the current 12.8 million point and suite licensees"

this numbers all make the assumption that with the old licensing they wouldn't have had a a single user more in 2020 then in 2014?
If someone could find numbers from 2008 that would be great.
anyway. to be a big success CC needs a much faster gain then what we see.
the estimations that they did concerning user numbers and revenue have surly been on the low side of what they wanted to get. they wanted to bust them... but they just somehow get them.

Florian Sepp visual arts
http://www.floriansepp.com


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