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Apple is driving down the flash media price

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emery
Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 2, 2005 at 8:39:13 pm

http://thinksecret.com/news/0509ipod.html

If this turns out to be true (which think secret usually is) this will have big implications on the cost of flash media. They are going to sell an 8gig Mini for $300. Now I understand that P2 cards have to be faster and have higher production standards but there is a VERY large price difference here. Apple is taking advantage of the economy of scale and Im hoping that trickles down to P2 cards.

If Im not mistaken P2 cards use SD cards as opposed to Compact Flash. Is it not the case that CF capacities are generally higher and have better performance?



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Vincent Rice
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 3, 2005 at 1:25:08 am

If anything this drives the price up. Apple contracts for the ENTIRE OUTPUT of the Samsung factory. Anyway its got nothing to do with the price of P2's


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emery
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 3, 2005 at 1:35:25 am

It certainly will have an impact on the price of P2. Maybe not a direct impact but Apple is drastically driving the price down. Yes they will rape Samsung of every last card but it will force other companies to lower their prices in order to compete in the market. Scale is the number one factor that drives prices down. Sure companies get more efficient with production as well but its really scale that drives prices.



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Noah Kadner
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 3, 2005 at 10:08:56 am

Hard to say what the impact specifically on P2 would be as these are not really related technologies. The SD chips in the P2 cards are not competing directly with the Flash memory used in the Ipods. There is not any interchaneability. It's kind of like saying reducing the price of Coke will have an effect on Orange Juice consumption. There could be some effect or none depending on how perceptions are effected. Hopefully it will make the idea of solid state memory in general something people expect to pay less for but it seems like that's already a given hope for P2.

Noah


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Emery
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 3, 2005 at 3:35:00 pm

I see your point Noah but I think the relationship is more closely related to a Coke/Pepsi comparison. I think its only a matter of time before third party companies start making products for this camera. A P2 or P2 like device could be made with compact flash cards. The price of any of the 3 leading solid state media formats (Compact Flash, SD, and Memory Stick) will effects the others. Manufacturers will build their devices to support the format with the best price/performance. Ofcourse there is some politics involved as well but generally this will force the competing memory types to lower their prices and push their production further. Maybe CF/SD is a coke/orange juice comparison but think about how much more coke is sold than orange juice. Yes you still have your oj buyers but it doesnt hold a candle compared to coke. When it comes to the tech industry, manufacturers will adopt the most economic solution, and in this particular situation, the end customer wont even "taste" the difference.



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Blub
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
by
on Sep 3, 2005 at 6:52:43 pm

Hitachi this week announced the introduction (July 05) of a new 1 inch hard drive with motion detection to save the drive if it falls. It is an 8 gig drive and it is said that the drive will be found in new cell phones like Motorola


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H
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
by
on Sep 3, 2005 at 8:45:33 pm

An 8GB P2 card costs under $2,000. Still extremely expensive, but not nearly as bad as your post indicates.


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Blub
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
by
on Sep 3, 2005 at 10:19:13 pm

The Panasonic web site has the P2 4Gig card at $1799. 4 gig not 8 gig. I have read here several times much cheaper prices on all the P2 cards, a quick visit to the Panasonic web site proves those numbers wrong, unless we are to think that Panasonic is wrong.

The new 200camera is going to be sold for $10,000 with 2 8 gig P2 cards, The list price at the Panasonic web site for the camera is $6000. So, the 8 gig cards each cost $2000 when bought with the camera. This deal has been presented as a good deal because the P2 cards are being sold a a deep discoiunt when bought with the camera. So $2,000 is a price only offered with the camera, they cost more without.

I dont remember where I read $3,400 per 8 gig P2 card but I think it was here or at the Panasonic web site, I cant find this product listed there anymore though.

Chris


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Barry Green
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 3, 2005 at 10:27:22 pm

[Blub] "The drives are so small two of them could fit into a P2 sized format, 16gigs for around $200, WOW"

They could fit, yes, but they'd be way, way too slow. These tiny drives don't have the transfer rate necessary. The smaller hard drives don't have the rotational speed to get high transfer rates. Even the big 1.8" drives are too slow to support a 100-megabit data stream. You really need to go all the way up to 2.5" before it's something that could be considered. The 1" drives don't have a chance.

Now, if you RAIDed four of them together somehow, maybe then it'd be competitive... but that wouldn't fit in a card. Maybe someone will come up with some sort of double-decker device that raids four together into one "double" P2 card (a single product that takes up both slots)... then you'd have 32gb, probably enough speed, and probably a price that's half of what an 8gb solid-state card costs.

Now that would be interesting...

-----------------
Get the most from your DVX camera. The DVX Book and DVX DVD are now available at http://www.dvxuser.com/articles/dvxbook/ and at Amazon (http://tinyurl.com/54u4a)


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Blub
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
by
on Sep 4, 2005 at 4:27:03 am

But we can dream a dream.....

Chris


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toke lahti
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 4, 2005 at 9:53:45 pm

But new CF-cards will have 100Mb write speed, so what I'm really waiting for is the first P2 adapter for cf-card.
Cf maybe not so robust than genuine p2, but surely robust enough for me.


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Barry Green
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 5, 2005 at 3:16:20 am

Oh, I totally agree. I'd love to see a PCMCIA adapter card with a slot for high-speed CF memory, that you could swap out CF cards in. The expense would be in the first card (with whatever proprietary hardware it might need to interface with the P2 system in the camera). Then you'd have the ability to just plug in off-the-shelf CF (or even SD) cards; like the Sandisk Extreme III, which technically should be able to support the data rate right now. $500 for 4gb. I think that would be a great little product, if someone would develop it.

-----------------
Get the most from your DVX camera. The DVX Book and DVX DVD are now available at http://www.dvxuser.com/articles/dvxbook/ and at Amazon (http://tinyurl.com/54u4a)


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Noah Kadner
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 3, 2005 at 6:59:23 pm

There is not as clear a connection here because in the case of P2 Panasonic effectively controls the market. They have a vested and political interest in SD technology because it is a Panasonic invention. It would take a lot more than price lowering news from Samsung to make them dump SD in the P2 cards. And other manufacturers would not be able to create P2 cards based on other memory technologies without entering into a royalty contract with Panasonic because the P2 spec is proprietary as I understand it. But I do agree with you that Coke lowering its price can do nothing but good for the pricing of the rest of the beverage market at the very least on a perceptual level to the average consumer. It's more a question of how many more of these types of announcements will truly alter the marketplace.



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Emery
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 3, 2005 at 8:14:11 pm

I wasnt aware SD was invented by Panasonic, that does make things a little different. Ive generally only used CF media. But as you've suggested it does put pressure on the "beverage market" in general when there are similar beverages out there for significantly lower price. All of these high capacity/high performance/low price media solutions (weather it be from hitachi, samsung, or anyone else) is good news for P2. Panasonic just wont be able to justify their prices, they will have to stay competitive with market cost and technologies. As far as third party companies making P2 devices goes, yes they will have to pay royalties. Im not very familiar with copy write and patent law but i dont really understand why a company would have to pay royalties for anything. Couldn't they make a non P2 device that is simply inserted into the P2 data port? Do you have to pay royalties for figuring out what data is coming out of the P2 "data port," figuring out how to record it and enclosing it inside a device that fits the P2 form factor? What makes P2 P2?



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Noah Kadner
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 3, 2005 at 8:57:09 pm

The issue of what is proprietary specifically about the P2 port and whether another company would have to pay royalties or could reverse engineer without legal issues would be a good question for Jan.



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Vincent Rice
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 3, 2005 at 4:55:16 pm

"Rape"? Inflamatory language for a simple commercial agreement. Apple invested in Samsung to help build the factory in the first place remember. I still don't see any specific connection between this news and the price of P2 cards.


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Emery
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 3, 2005 at 8:17:45 pm

Settle down, I wasnt using "rape" in the traditional sense. Just trying to emphasize that apple will being using all of their drives and therefore no one else will be able to take advantage of samsungs low price (at least not for a while.) And if you have read my post youd see that i have conceded there is no direct relationship between samsungs low cost CF and P2. Its an overall market thing.



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Kyle S
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 4, 2005 at 9:00:32 pm

Since Apple helped build the factory, I am sure this has a bearing on the price Apple is paying. I am not sure anyone else would get that price from Samsung. Also, since Apple helped pay for the factory I think the output was intended for their use from the start.


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Video Opp
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 6, 2005 at 5:07:47 pm

In the end, I think that the price of the cards will have a direct effect on how many of these cameras are sold. Perhaps the ENG market will pay these prices but if Panasonic wants to capture a big marketshare with this revelutionary concept, which I believe that it could, it needs to drop the price of these 8M cards to something more like $300. Instead of thinking in terms of big profits on the cards for a few clients and think more in terms of moderate profits on cameras and cards for many clients.

JMHO


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toke lahti
Re: Apple is driving down the flash media price
on Sep 6, 2005 at 8:12:18 pm

[Video Opp] "I think that the price of the cards will have a direct effect on how many of these cameras are sold."

Absolutely right. When sony brings similar camera than hvx200 with recording to 50GB optical disk, which are sold about $50 each and are used both acquisition and archiving simultaneosly and are used in editing practically as easy as p2, then panny really has to decide whether to consentrate to niche market or to go to mainstream.


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