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This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...

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Ronald Lindeboom
This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Aug 24, 2018 at 2:38:25 pm

https://bigthink.com/philip-perry/47-of-jobs-in-the-next-25-years-will-disa...

Check it out. It is a worthwhile article on the fast changing future...

Best regards,

Ronald Lindeboom
CEO, Creative COW LLC

Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.


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Steve Kownacki
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Aug 27, 2018 at 12:47:08 pm

This is an interesting article and the video has me even more confused. Certainly some "radical" ideas, but what we're doing today were radical 50 years, even 25 years ago. For those of you that create jobs, or are responsible jobs, or increasing profits for shareholders, what say you? How does all this translate with an ever-growing population? Are we in for a commune society? Will we be going back to bartering? I have roughly 435,894,003 questions that come to mind.

Thanks for introducing me to BigThink, Ron. My mind is absolutely never at rest now. :)

Steve





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Mike Cohen
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Aug 29, 2018 at 4:52:38 pm

There has been plenty of reporting recently about automation and robots replacing many human jobs. To some degree this seems plausible - manufacturing automation is not new. AI-powered automation and something called RPA - Robotic Process Automation, are going to reduce the number of humans required in factories. Machines will predict when they need repairs before the defect occurs - Minority Report for robots. Having just re-watched 2001, I wonder how long it will take an AI computer to do something malicious.

There are now robots that can pick crops, eliminating the migrant workers who do a lot of this work currently. As AI gets better Skynet can't be far behind!

However the notion that a computer and robot might replace a doctor or lawyer seems like science fiction. Surgical robots are very popular but those are controlled by a person. Like self-driving cars, there are so many subtle nuances that would be a challenge for a computer to recognize - currently. There may be a neural net in some MIT lab that will prove me wrong.

50 to 100 years from now some of what the article proposes may be closer to reality. Most of us will be gone by then, so it will be up to future generations to learn what will really happen.

Mike Cohen


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Mark Suszko
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Aug 31, 2018 at 3:15:19 pm

Actual doctors and lawyers may have some job security for a while yet, however..... there's a glut of lawyers on the market, depressing their income potential dramatically. We graduate more new lawyers every year, than the total of all lawyers in Japan. That blows my mind.

In fact, a lot of new law school graduates end up doing non-law work, in marketing and operations, the degree being more of a certification, conferring proof that they have a head for organizing and administrating. Paralegals are already feeling the pinch as AI "expert systems" have started replacing live workers in this field. What's coming, and is already partly here, is that paralegals and young newly-graduated lawyers are less frequently setting up an office or joining a partnership, and becoming migrant workers.

They now go to a place similar to a "boiler room" call center, where they are "rented" to process legal documents on a per-task basis to any company legal department that wants some scutwork processed. Corporations are "virtualizing" their legal departments with these out-of-house contractual firms. And that's highly efficient compared to keeping a staff or lawyers on retainer... but it doesn't put a dent in the law school and college student loans it took to get to this point for the worker. And that cubical lawyer isn't building a career or professional reputation doing this kind of anonymous scrivnerism.

Now just imagine a similar scenario for video editing. Wait. ...you don't have to. A laptop, a fast internet connection and cloud-based tools and storage... and you're an editor, working from the dirt floor of a yurt somewhere. It's already here. Working from home, you can be competing for edit jobs against people from Milwaukee to Mumbai. And can you survive at this career, if you want to live in Milwaukee on Mumbai levels of income.

I foresee that our industry will stratify into a small layer of well-paying, high-performance "superstar" practitioners, and a low tier of cube farm fodder, telecommuting in to edit people's wedding, iPhone and YouTube videos for them for a few cents an hour... and not much of a middle layer at all.

Surgeons are going to be okay for some time yet, even with robotic assistants. But the armies of medical paper-pushers... that's going to face extreme pressure from the health care and insurance industries to replace people with programmable systems. And as the population ages, you'll find more unskilled and semi-skilled jobs for nursing home attendants and personal care technicians... but these already get paid minimum wage with few benefits.

Will we get to a place with Universal Income? In some ways, we're already there; it's just not yet recognizable as such because it's a patchwork web of inter-connecting programs and services, layers of them, each covering one small area of need or concern. Cost-efficiency, more than social concern, will likely push a consolidation and streamlining of this web of supports into one, simpler program covering everyone.

We're in for a few decades of high social disruption, as the economy adjusts to fewer workers and lower-paid workers and higher levels of unemployment/ unemployable people with a lot of leisure time, but not much money to spend enjoying it. Altruists might envision a new Renaissance or Enlightenment, as people with basic needs met and lots of time on their hands turn from useless toil to pursue education, art, culture.... and some of that is going to happen, I suppose, for a relative few...

But the rest is going to look like the worst parts of "Idiocracy" and any of a couple dozen dystopian Sci Fi flicks.


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Bill Davis
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 2, 2018 at 7:39:10 pm

It is.

And this article is already more than a year old.

One reason that the media may be MORE obsessed with politics than normal, is that these huge forces are coming at us that will shape the future — and nearly ALL of our political leaders are basically re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic rather than facing these type of real issues.

Washington should have been testing models for universal income and other potential solutions and debating what happens if unemployment ever increases to "starving violent people" levels - instead of bitching about petty stuff.

My friends in some of those "socialist" countries that get derided by some voices constantly, have sent me articles about their governments doing all sorts of tests starting LONG AGO, trying to figure out the balance between suppressing self determination and encouraging people to keep getting up and going out to do productive work — against public programs that focus on keeping huge numbers of people from starving.

The debate isn't easy when you don't have ACTUAL data to back up your ideas. And the only way to GET such data is to develop models, run real-world trials, and test, test, test with real people.

Cuz if too many people get too hungry for too long, civil order becomes a luxury even rich people won't be able to afford.

My 2 cents.

Creator of XinTwo - http://www.xintwo.com
The shortest path to FCP X mastery.


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Ronald Lindeboom
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 3, 2018 at 4:48:46 am

[Bill Davis] "The debate isn't easy when you don't have ACTUAL data to back up your ideas. And the only way to GET such data is to develop models, run real-world trials, and test, test, test with real people. "

By the time that the figures are in, the changes will already be done and the naysayers will be a thing of the past. Already robots are replacing jobs across a wide range of occupations and I was just reading an article about robots that are doing surgery. Maybe that will be enough data to prove to you that the times they are a changing.

I find it funny that the forward thinking shown at the introduction of FCPX a decade ago and which has been argued relentlessly since, is so quickly displaced by the same reticence to change that you bristled at, Bill. If you had waited for empirical quantified statistics before buying in, you'd have not been in the position you were so willing to assume.

Best regards,

Ronald Lindeboom
CEO, Creative COW LLC

Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.


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Ronald Lindeboom
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 3, 2018 at 4:40:44 am

[Mike Cohen] "However the notion that a computer and robot might replace a doctor or lawyer seems like science fiction. "

Already there are robots that are doing surgery. So the idea may not be as outlandish as it might first appear.

Best regards,

Ronald Lindeboom
CEO, Creative COW LLC

Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.


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Roger Van Duyn
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 3, 2018 at 12:53:23 pm

It depends upon what you mean by "robots are already doing surgery." Like Mike said previously, a surgeon is operating the controls of the "robot" that's making the incisions etc.

It's much like the guy in the booth controlling the switcher and joystick camera controls while the PTZ cameras film the event. In one sense, the cameras are filming the event. In another, it's the guy in the booth. It's the same way with robotic surgery.

Is the robot that's physically making the incisions etc. doing the surgery, or is the surgeon controlling the robot doing the surgery? The robot isn't making the decisions. The surgeon is.

Not sure how long it will be, if ever, before AI advances enough to have a completely autonomous device doing surgery all by itself. Driverless cars still have a lot of problems to solve. A surgical robot isn't like a driverless car. Rather, it's more like a device that augments the human surgeon. Perhaps that would be a better approach for cars too. Design systems that help the driver drive better.

I don't like the term Artificial Intelligence. In reality, it's a simulation of intelligence. It's still human intelligence designing the algorhithms that the automation follows that appears to be an artificial intelligence in operation. The only creative thought in the field of artificial intelligence still comes from human beings.

But, your overall point is correct. What will all us human beings do without meaningful work? And the pay for meaningful work?

Roger


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Ronald Lindeboom
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 3, 2018 at 5:50:55 pm

Maybe you guys missed this one, yeah? Surgery performed by robots without doctors at the controls -- from the Newsweek article reporting from Children’s National Health System (CNHS) and Johns Hopkins University...

"Humans make mistakes. Even surgeons, who train intensively for years and adhere to exacting protocols, are not infallible. But what if these doctors could pool their knowledge and experiences together and create an optimal surgical standard of care, to be carried out by machines? Computers, after all, make precise calculations effortlessly and consistent motions without tiring. That’s the idea behind surgical robots, which may soon perform most surgeries, from sewing up tiny wounds to executing heart procedures. Many of these operations are, in fact, already accomplished with the assistance of robots, with machines like the da Vinci Surgical System mimicking every move a surgeon makes as she controls the tools from afar. But a recent test conducted by researchers at Children’s National Health System (CNHS) and Johns Hopkins University suggests that robots in the operating room may soon go a step further, performing on soft tissue completely on their own, from start to finish. The surgeons, meanwhile, would simply stand by and watch. The Smart Tissue Autonomous Robot, or simply STAR, successfully completed open bowel surgery in pigs, leaving the animals healthy and without complications."


https://www.newsweek.com/2016/05/20/robot-soft-tissue-surgery-pig-bowels-45...

It's only going to speed up and become more common in the days ahead but we can all pretend otherwise.

Best regards,

Ronald Lindeboom
CEO, Creative COW LLC

Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.


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Ronald Lindeboom
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 3, 2018 at 5:58:20 pm

Then there's this report from FORBES entitled "Prepare Yourselves, Robots Will Soon Replace Doctors In Healthcare."

The only part of this that remains to be seen is how soon is soon?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/haroldstark/2017/07/10/prepare-yourselves-robo...

Best regards,

Ronald Lindeboom
CEO, Creative COW LLC

Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.


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Roger Van Duyn
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 5, 2018 at 12:56:32 pm

Ron, these quotes from the articles you posted are "marketing spin". The Newsweek article especially doesn't mention all the failures the researchers encountered. That would mess up the thrust of the article, to generate buzz for potential investors, which also includes government agencies that dole out the grants, and the news media's own tendencies to generate fear to increase the number of reads and views (advertising dollars). The companies want to hype their stuff. The media both hypes and generates fear. Anything to get more views and reads.

Researchers market their work and ideas to get the grants and the funding from investors and the government. I spent thirty years in the medical laboratories, and watched the steady increase of automation. NOTHING EVER WORKED AS WELL as claimed in the publications. NOTHING!!!

With every system, the more complex it becomes, the more potential points of failure. Human expertise will always be indispensable to keep technology going. Don't fall for the HYPE or the FEAR. All of our technology is just about always on the verge of failure, but for the dedicated human beings expending so much effort to keep everything working. Really. Our culture is treating science and technology like it's some kind of magic to worship. Nothing could be further than the truth. It's tools. And yes, I've always derived great pleasure when the tools my coworkers and I were using worked well. When they went down, and they ALL WENT DOWN from time to time, it was always a nightmare if we didn't have a backup analyzer ready to go.

Roger


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Roger Van Duyn
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 5, 2018 at 1:33:34 pm

For anyone interested in seeing how far HYPE and FEAR can go with medical technologies, just start reading up on all the people suckered in by the Theranos "magic box" to do all the laboratory testing from their itty, bitty special fingerstick sampling device. I'm sure that not all the PhD's and MD's that were involved in that scandal were fooled because the MD's at least, have to do some real laboratory work during their education. The founder of the company was afraid of needles, having all those tubes of blood drawn. Then she and the other main guy at Theranos started hyping a better way. They took in Walgreens, and many venture capitalists along the way.

People want magic. Technology isn't magic.

The Theranos scandal makes for very interesting reading. I followed it for quite a while. Couldn't believe how easily people fell for it. I don't really think robots will ever get to the point they work like magic.

Roger


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Ronald Lindeboom
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 5, 2018 at 2:53:59 pm

Roger,

Are you really going to tell me that Johns Hopkin University School of Medicine is just doing this for "marketing spin"?

Some of you really need to get out more, there's life outside your edit bays.

Best regards,

Ronald Lindeboom
CEO, Creative COW LLC

Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.


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Roger Van Duyn
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 5, 2018 at 5:39:54 pm

I believe Mike is correct.

I read the Newsweek article and the Forbes article you posted. They're hype.

What Johns Hopkins Administrators had to say is no more surprising than what Cleveland Clinic Administrators said 4 or 5 years ago about Theranos. But not all are gullible. Sometimes people have other motives. A former head of the CDC was on the board of Theranos, along with out present Secretary of Defense, 2 past Secretaries of State, etc. At one time Theranos was worth about ten billion dollars.

Maybe you ought to type "Theranos Scandal" into your favorite browser search bar and read some of those articles. You'd see a great similarity with your articles on surgical robots and the early articles of Theranos, like this one from Forbes:

What Forbes said July 2014: https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2014/07/02/bloody-amazing/#1ce5e...

Of course, it was all technological hype.

Here's what Forbes has to say more recently:

What Forbes said in April: https://www.forbes.com/sites/hershshefrin/2018/04/14/the-theranos-con/#2d8a...

Be skeptical of hype. Technology isn't magic. It's an assortment of tools.

I spent many more years in the lab than I ever have in the edit bay. Thousands upon thousands of hours more behind the microscope than behind the camera. I've operated dozens and dozens of robotic systems thousands and thousands of times. I'm skeptical of those articles.

Roger


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Ronald Lindeboom
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 6, 2018 at 4:02:03 am

Seriously, guys... You know more than Johns Hopkin and Newsweek? Oh please... 😂

Sorry, but we'll revisit this in a few years and then I'll smile when even the most stubborn of you will have to concede the obvious.

Have a good night.

Best regards,

Ronald Lindeboom
CEO, Creative COW LLC

Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.


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Ronald Lindeboom
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 6, 2018 at 4:24:49 am
Last Edited By Ronald Lindeboom on Sep 6, 2018 at 4:43:18 am

Strawman arguments and imputing ad hominem unrelated issues shows the weakness of the discussion at hand.

If you wish to shoot down "magic" technology, I will bring out my own strawman for you: I was forced to retire from the COW for the better part of six years because after many years of being over-medicated and fed antibiotics far too often, in one blood test I had a single white blood cell showing up -- my immune system had shut down and I was screwed. Doctors told me that there was no more they could do for me and that the pathogens were too virulent and I would soon be dead. (Most of you are unaware but Kathlyn is a retired licensed microbiologist who worked in the hospital labs for many years. She can verify the story for you or you can choose to disbelieve it completely, I really don't care.)

Thankfully, instead I did my own research and bought a machine that is TOTALLY unapproved of by the AMA and which they say is quackery. But after being told twice to go home and get my affairs in order because I was done for and that the doctors could not help me anymore -- I researched cutting edge technologies and came up with an answer that I have been using since 2010. Around the world there are hundreds of thousands of us dealing with diseases that the sickcare industry is unable and in some cases, unwilling to address.

It wasn't instantaneous and I had to shut down the Creative COW Magazine because it took a lot of work to rebuild an immune system that had completely collapsed due to over-medication with antibiotics. My machine became my surrogate immune system. With it, I was able to rebuild my immune system to the point that my last few years tests have been normal.

There are many people at the COW who know me quite well and who know the story and were around for the ups and downs of it. They know that what I am saying is quite honest. I also have another users group going for the machine I use and so I have plenty enough people who know what I am saying is true. Your approval and insincere acquiescence is not necessary.

So go ahead and pretend you have all the answers, which my return to the COW proves that you don't -- neither you nor the healthcare industry. Both of you are good at what you are good at, and if I were in a car wreck I would want an American surgeon not my machine. But the sickcare system sucks at dealing with those who suffer with chronic disease. But if you think you have all the answers, you are unaware that as Shakespeare said long ago: there are many more things in heaven and on Earth than are dreamed of in your philosophy.

But if it makes you feel better and helps you to sleep at night, go ahead and pretend to know more than you obviously do. I am done with this discussion because I have a website to totally rebuild from the ground up and I am far too busy to argue with the close-minded.

There, since you introduced strawmen, I have proudly introduced my own lovely scarecrow...

Best regards,

Ronald Lindeboom
CEO, Creative COW LLC

Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.


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Steve Kownacki
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 3, 2018 at 6:13:49 pm

The last time I got an x-ray, a lower wage technician took the pictures, and then a remote team of radiologists read the pictures and forwarded the information to my doctor. When I recently went for a new pair of glasses, a lower wage technician used the machines to test my eyes, but an offsite ophthalmologist read all the pictures for the diagnosis and corresponded with me via Skype. I think it is these efficiencies that intrigue me the most in the near-term. Rather than each facility having an ophthalmologist or optometrist, it’s very quick to use the machines, and extremely efficient for an ophthalmologist to simply be reading pictures all day rather than doing too much manual labor.

Steve





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Ronald Lindeboom
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 3, 2018 at 6:51:37 pm

After our new engineering team finishes up the new COW website (which leaves behind the old codebase and changes out to a Wordpress-based system which we'll begin introducing in October), we are going to be working with a doctor to develop a website for his machines which are pushing the envelope on medical technology. When we asked him why he conceived the things that he has, he remarked that he can see a widening divide between the haves and the have-nots -- which is only going to grow and leave many without medical care under the present system. So he is working to bring tech to bear that will largely do much of the work with machines and greatly reduce the cost of medical care. I think he's right, the future is not going to be a repeat of the status quo as we have known it.

Best regards,

Ronald Lindeboom
CEO, Creative COW LLC

Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.


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Bob Cole
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 17, 2018 at 11:24:48 pm

[Admin note: this post has been moved to a new thread, here: https://forums.creativecow.net/thread/17/883710]


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Ronald Lindeboom
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 18, 2018 at 4:50:14 am

[Admin note: this post has been moved to a new thread, here: https://forums.creativecow.net/thread/17/883710]


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Bob Cole
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 26, 2018 at 7:28:42 pm
Last Edited By Bob Cole on Sep 26, 2018 at 7:30:50 pm

Ron, eight days ago I had deep abdominal surgery via Da Vinci - and a human being.

The day after surgery, he stopped in my room, and I told him about this debate. Yes, he said, the machine can record everything that he does. Yes, it has a better memory than humans. Yes, some day, AI might do it all. "BUT" ... He believes that the big problem will be "vision." Every single human he has operated on, he said, was "a snowflake." Each one is different. And the Da Vinci's vision is not yet acute enough to interpret what it "sees," since it cannot possibly have seen it before.

He was already in his scrubs, being called into the OR for his next patient, and I was on some very dreamy pain meds, so that is as far as our dialog went. I don't understand enough to interpret it in any way. Just reporting what he said. Vision, and snowflakes.

I suspect that this is a "horses for courses" argument. Some surgeries - AI will be great. Some ASPECTS of almost all surgeries - yes.

Others - not for a very long time.


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Ronald Lindeboom
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Oct 3, 2018 at 10:50:44 pm

Thank you Bob for at least acknowledging the conversation and addressing it with actually salient points. I almost felt like I was talking to myself for a while. I do not doubt that the future is going to see far more than we do today and that today the options are limited. But anyone who has followed the path of technology over the past 30 or 40 years, knows how fast it has grown and expanded. Thank you for leaving some room for some well documented historically vindicated expansion.

Best regards,

Ronald Lindeboom
CEO, Creative COW LLC

Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.


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Mike Cohen
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 4, 2018 at 8:54:56 pm

[Ronald Lindeboom] "Already there are robots that are doing surgery. So the idea may not be as outlandish as it might first appear."

Surgeons do surgery - the robot is a sophisticated tool. The AI required for surgery is more complex than for driving. While a self-driving car may need to make a split-second choice about whether to hit an animal or a person, a surgical robot would need to differentiate between anatomical structures that may look identical to its sensors. It may one day replace humans but not in our lifetimes.


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Ronald Lindeboom
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 5, 2018 at 2:57:08 pm

Did you actually read either of the two articles I pointed to, Mike? They state fairly categorically that robots are already in the process of doing just that. Since you didn't read those ones, I'll dig out a few more later on and just keep doing that until you guys actually have to admit to yourselves that there are far more things in this world than are dreamed of in...oh wait, I like you guys. Never mind. :D

Best regards,

Ronald Lindeboom
CEO, Creative COW LLC

Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.


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Jren David
Re: This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching...
on Sep 4, 2018 at 4:36:49 am

yup. I just do it


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