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FCP-X: Case study for biz schools

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Mark Raudonis
FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 22, 2011 at 6:30:14 am

Mark my words: Apple's handling of the release of FCP-X will be fodder for biz schools case studies long into the future. It's too early to know if they'll be studying it as a success story or as a spectacular failure.

Success or failure? What say you?

Mark



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Shane Ross
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 22, 2011 at 10:30:48 am

Failure. Because they pulled...recalled...the current Final Cut Studio 3 software from all the vendors. This doesn't allow people who don't want FCP X, but want a more current version of the software (say those waiting for the new version, but let down by FCP X). That is a revenue stream that they are costing themselves. Especially since it is $600 more than the new version.

ALSO, schools will have FCP 7 on the edit stations, but incoming students cannot buy the same version, so they match up. They only have access to FCP X, and you cannot share projects between the two. And since those in the broadcast industry will be holding onto FC 7, and using it and NOT upgrading to FCP X, this puts those students at a disadvantage.

It might be a baby step to a new app...and for that we need some cross over time. Yanking FCS 3 was a poor decision. BUT, aiming the new NLE directly at their biggest user base might be a big win. Us broadcast professionals won't find FCP X useful, but others might. Catering to the masses might be a big payoff.

Shane

GETTING ORGANIZED WITH FINAL CUT PRO DVD...don't miss it.
Read my blog, Little Frog in High Def


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Chuck Pullen
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 22, 2011 at 12:47:08 pm

Wait a second, back the truck up, I have a few questions…

As a PC guy who has never used FCP, don’t own an i-anything (never will) I’m not up to speed on the Mac-anomics of this situation. Are you telling me the they pulled the Professional version of Final Cut, because they released a new Prosumer (lite) version of the software?

That sounds like another case of welding the battery into case so you need to buy a new cell phone… I don’t mean to be critical, but I really don’t get why you guys put up with this stuff from Mac?

But again, that’s why I don’t own any of their products, shop at Wal-Mart, etc…

Chuck


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walter biscardi
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 22, 2011 at 2:02:34 pm

[Chuck Pullen] "Are you telling me the they pulled the Professional version of Final Cut, because they released a new Prosumer (lite) version of the software?"

What they did was add features to their consumer title, iMovie, and slapped the professional name on it. Some neat features to be sure, but there's no hiding where this product came from nor the fact that it was designed to be used as a one person, one workstation product.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

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Chuck Pullen
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 22, 2011 at 2:18:30 pm

Thanks for the explanation Walter. With the lines between professional and amateur severely blurred, I can see how they would want to market a more Adobe-esqe all-in-one solution that would appeal to the masses who want to feel like they are purchasing above average editing tools.

I just don’t understand why they would do this at the expense of their core of professional users? Guess the $$$ trumps loyalty.

Chuck


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Neil Hurwitz
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 22, 2011 at 2:11:40 pm

That sounds like another case of welding the battery into case so you need to buy a new cell phone… I don’t mean to be critical, but I really don’t get why you guys put up with this stuff from Mac?

Answer is simple:
It's a CHEAP editing solution. Like I said before
I know of NO ONE, NOT ONE COMPANY that bought FCP
when it was introduced because it was better than Avid or Quantel.
What it was, was cheaper by orders of magnitude.
FCP became a pro application because it was CHEAP
Tens of Thousands for Avid, Hundreds of Thousands for Quantel
A Few Thousand for a FCP setup.
This is not rocket science.
FCP enabled most here to set up shop. Apple owes you nothing.
I get a kick out of all the moaning here. If FCPX doesn't work for
you Don't buy it, Don't use it and continue doing what you do. I'm sure it will
improve over time and don't forget that most here don't have a
clue what a CMX 3600 was and the next generation gunning for your
work won't have a clue what FCP was, But they will sure know how to
sing with FCPX.
Mommy Mommy I wasted 300.00 on FCPX
No you didn't, It's new, It's here, Learn from the first release
Don't try to make money with it, Just keep up with the times
I could even make the case for NOT polluting any of your current
equipment or set up with this, Just buy an IMAC and experiment and learn.
Mommy,Mommy, I want my CMX
Give me a break


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Chuck Pullen
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 22, 2011 at 2:25:49 pm

You’re right Neil… Now your clients can shoot video on an i-phone, edit on their i-pad, one day they'll decide they don’t need you any more; you’ll just say “Well it’s just keeping up with the times”

Chuck


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Neil Hurwitz
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 22, 2011 at 3:18:16 pm

ou’re right Neil… Now your clients can shoot video on an i-phone, edit on their i-pad, one day they'll decide they don’t need you any more; you’ll just say “Well it’s just keeping up with the times”

You are correct, They don't need me anymore
I closed my facility in 2001
I had a old school big steel shop
CMX,ADO,Deveous,Chyron,GVG Switchers, 1",D2,D3, BetaSP,Digibeta
and 32 racks of other stuff.
All done in by Avid, Things Change my friend,Things Change
So you ask, Why did I close my shop after 21 years?
At which point I also owned a few Avid MC8000's
Short answer: I didn't see a way that I could continue the way
I wanted to (having great people,paying good salaries & benifits
and making money for myself) at what I saw as a future of
constant pressure on rates and increasing competition brought on by
innovation & technology.(AVID) and a diminishing barrier to
entry. In short it was going to become the land of the digital slave
and it wasn't for me. You make jokes about Iphones, well all I can
say is, turn on the news, any show, and you will see Cell Phone footage being aired. The electronic versions of Zapruder.
In the late 70's and 80's I was part of a
news stringer operation in NYC. We had guys out all night running around looking for stories. Two person crew, one carried a RCA TK76
camera and 40 pounds of batteries the other guy carried around
a 3/4" deck (BVU50)and another 40 pounds of batteries.
These guys were connected by an umbilical.
That's Over, Done, Stick a fork in it, replaced by a cell phone
or 200 dollar flip phone.
Don't for a heartbeat discount new technology,
It will be banging on your door soon.
I also see the complete elimination of tape sometime soon
SSD's are going to eat tape for lunch


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Chuck Pullen
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 22, 2011 at 5:57:07 pm

Now on that we can both agree Neil. The first day I was at NAB this year I was near the Sony booth when a guy walked by shooting with an ipad mounted on a shoulder rig with a giant you know what kind of grin on his face.

I swear to you Neil I was so disgusted I almost vomited right there. I then walked over to a quiet spot in the corner and booked a flight home to Chicago that same night...trust me I know how you feel about the future of this industry...

Chuck


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Scott Sheriff
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 24, 2011 at 6:37:27 pm

[Neil Hurwitz] "I'm sure it will
improve over time and don't forget that most here don't have a
clue what a CMX 3600 was and the next generation gunning for your
work won't have a clue what FCP was, But they will sure know how to
sing with FCPX."


Well, while they are singing with iMovie Pro, they are not going to get my day rate for running the CMX, or anything close.
Check this out from LA Craigs:

"We are seeking for a full time video editor to edit short segment video clips for our network of websites.

These are the requirements to apply and you must meet every single criteria:

- An expert in Final Cut Pro. We are looking to upgrade to FCP X...any knowledge of this would be very helpful.
- Be able to work in an extremely fast, high energy, fun environment.
- An expert in different video formats and the MAC OS X environment.
- Be able to edit on the fly, EXTREMELY fast when asked to turn around a job.
- Have general knowledge of celebrities.
- Work very organized and follow edit bay's organizational system.
- You must be creative. We don't want to spoon feed you when asking for a clip. You need to be able to understand on quick directions and turn the job around FAST.
- Our videos are very high energy and fast (average video is around 1 minute). Make sure you can cut a quick clip and not lose the audience.
- Have transportation to get to the office.
- Able to use teleprompter software.

In order to apply, please submit your resume and a link to your reel.

* Location: Burbank, CA
* Compensation: $15 per hour
"

I think the neighbors kid makes more mowing lawns.

Scott Sheriff
Director
http://www.sstdigitalmedia.com

I have a system, it has stuff in it, and stuff hooked to it. I have a camera, it can record stuff. I read the manuals, and know how to use this stuff and lots of other stuff too.
You should be suitably impressed...

"If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur." ---Red Adair


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Chuck Pullen
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 24, 2011 at 6:47:33 pm

[Scott Sheriff]
"- Have general knowledge of celebrities."
"* Compensation: $15 per hour""



Sounds like TMZ is hiring!

Chuck


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Chad Tingle
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 29, 2011 at 7:10:47 pm

Well said neil.. I agree 100%.. people are forgetting that a 1000.00 piece of software allowed a lot of them to be able to go into business for themselves.

Chad Tingle
Producer/Editor


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Mark Suszko
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 22, 2011 at 2:29:35 pm

At this point in the timeline of the situation, I mostly agree with Shane, that if there is a method to the madness, we're not seeing it, in terms of business decisions.

First, you launch a revolutionary new product, half-baked and incomplete. Well, that's not the first time, and it very well could be that a year from now we'll all laugh at our initial shock because everything that's wrong or missing will be awesome by then. maybe.

But the second part of the one-two punch is the real shocker in this situation: that Apple pulled the previous product availability, apparently, completely and for good. Let's try to game it out as if we're the marketing guys in Cupertino:

Black turtleneck guy: "To get these stubborn users to migrate, you have to make them walk the plank: no mercy, no path of retreat, only ever forward. Since we only make money from people buying new products or services, there is no percentage in leaving the old stuff out there. We've made all we will make in profits from the old stuff. Dump it."

Ironically-named unknown band t-shirt guy: "But this is hostile to our crunchy-granola hipster commune image with the user base. We'll alienate our most fervent (and free) evangelizers in the marketplace, the high-end media-centric people who do our best marketing by word of mouth, for us, with an indie cred we can't buy."

Ironic facial hair guy: "The high-end guys gave us our credibility to start with, but look at the actual stats of the user base and they are only a small fraction of the total. Steve says tape is dead, disks are dead, everything is the cloud. The folks most likely to buy into that are the ones least invested in the old order of things. New users won't miss what they didn't know we took away. The new product looks totally badass, and that's half the battle."

Severe pony tail chick rocking expensive eyeglass frames: "We have to keep a balance between the youtubing kids and the hardcore broadcast pros, because the nerds want to seem hip and cool, and the cool kids need to feel cutting-edge and hard core tech, but without having to actually learn anything."

500-dollar suit coat over scruffy t-shirt guy: "We'll make it the third party vendors' problem. And their opportunity. We've broken so much that was old here, there will be work and money for lots of third-parties to fix or add back the stuff the hard core user base wants and used to have. The product as-is is ready enough for the younger user base, and as the third-party developers add stuff, users can build their own sandwich from the app store, make it what they need it to be. We make money on the developers and on their product, we make money twice, for less overall work."

Facial hair guy: "More champagne, anybody?"
(group) "Hells, yeah!" (clink)


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Scott Sheriff
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 24, 2011 at 6:26:43 pm

[Chuck Pullen] "That sounds like another case of welding the battery into case so you need to buy a new cell phone… I don’t mean to be critical, but I really don’t get why you guys put up with this stuff from Mac?"

I don't know why we put up with it either, and have repeatedly mentioned not rewarding bad behavior.

Scott Sheriff
Director
http://www.sstdigitalmedia.com

I have a system, it has stuff in it, and stuff hooked to it. I have a camera, it can record stuff. I read the manuals, and know how to use this stuff and lots of other stuff too.
You should be suitably impressed...

"If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur." ---Red Adair


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walter biscardi
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 22, 2011 at 2:01:02 pm

[Mark Raudonis] "Success or failure? What say you?"

Spectacular failure. More soon from a podcast with myself and Richard Harrington right here on the Cow.

They could not have handled this roll out or development of the product any worse if they tried. The only people happy are those that have a vested interest in selling products that tie in with FCP X.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

Blog Twitter Facebook


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jamie thorne
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 22, 2011 at 3:51:00 pm

From my understanding Apple doesn't use focus groups or market research in the same way as other companies.

“We do no market research. We don’t hire consultants. The only consultants I’ve ever hired in my 10 years is one firm to analyze Gateway’s retail strategy so I would not make some of the same mistakes they made [when launching Apple's retail stores]. But we never hire consultants, per se. We just want to make great products.”

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0803/gallery.jobsqna.fortune/in...


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Tim Wilson
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 22, 2011 at 7:49:17 pm

Another way of saying "We're just trying to make great products" is "we don't trust anyone else to know a great product if it bit them in the butt. At least not until we give we them what WE think is great, and then they agree."

There are a bunch of measures of success, and to me, they largely fall into two buckets. One is the hardcore business side: profit/loss, market disruption, stockholder perception, etc.

On that level, everything that Apple has done is perfect. Even the antenna issues with iPhone 4 - irrelevant for more than a couple of weeks, and only among people who talk about such things, and most of that talk is to each other. Apple has made zero mistakes worth talking about for any length of time, and that deserves study on its own.

The part of the "market" that we're talking about here is the customer side. The first issue there is, who's the customer? The people using FCP now, or the customers Apple wants? What's the horizon for their own measure of success?

Apple consistently releases products late, overpriced and underfeatured. It has happened from the beginning, when the Mac was the last computer on the planet still working in black and white. iPod was very nearly the last PMP to market, and to get there, Apple took features out of the software they bought from Casaday&Green (SoundJam) to turn into iTunes, and they're still not back. We all remember how pathetic FCP was back in the day. Apple TV - still "a hobby," but not going to be forever.

So at every step, they came in below customer expectations. Every one of those was an area of disappointment...ah, but...to use the iPod as an example. Sure, it sucked compared to almost the entire market when it came out, but it EXPLODED the market, so not even a single percentage point of the then-existing market gave a poo about its deficiencies. Didn't even come up. iPod came to define the market.

(The one exception to this pattern: iPad. Cornering the market on components helped, but Apple is consistently underpricing itself relative to the competitive feature set. iPhone is already being outsold, and it will fall further behind to a Windows-style ecosystem from Google. Already well underway.

iPad? I don't see that going anywhere. I have my wishlist for iPad 3, but looking at the leap from 1 to 2, I'm not looking at other pads as hard as I am other phones. I'm on my fourth iPhone in less than a year not because I love them so much, but because it keeps crapping out. Thank goodness for Apple Care. Don't leave the Apple store without it.)

I'm going to skip the thing that everybody skips: Apple II was very nearly the best-selling computer on the market, and Apple dropped an atomic bomb on its customers. No hardware compatibility when they introduced Mac, ZERO software compatibility, and where Apple II was famous for openness, Apple welded the case shut.

System 6 to 7 - blew up the entire world again. Forced new hardware, new software, was the least stable OS EVER (if you weren't there, you have no idea - a gazillion times worse than Vista), and a year later, nobody cared.

OS 9 to X - same story. OS 10.2, same story. A year later from each, nobody cared. In both cases, because the market grew so much faster afterward, and none of the new customers cared, and because by the time the of next release cycle, everything was fine.

Apple has always been willing to blow up its customer base in the service of creating a better customer experience.

The thing is, if Microsoft tried ANY of this, there'd be blood in the street to the horse's bridle. There's no company on earth who could have gotten away with this once -- selling a product that the CEO stands on stage and TELLS you it's not a real product? Well, it's working for Apple TV, whose sales are still going up even though nobody can say exactly what it does.

We'll know after the release of Lion (looking like September from here), but I think that FCPX will be another example of Apple being delighted to infuriate its customer base, and willing to lose a large number of them...whoops, it won't lose a single one, not really, and they'll gain a bazillion of them. It's the price we pay for being current Apple customers, rather than future ones...because hey, we'll be future customers soon enough.

I can't say I'm happy about any of this, but I also can't say that my wallet won't be out for Lion, and who knows what else by the end of the year.

I spend as much time hating them as loving them, and the end result is that I keep buying their stuff.

Success.


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Mark Suszko
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 22, 2011 at 8:48:07 pm

You make us sound like wives of an abusive husband.


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Jeff Bernstein
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 23, 2011 at 9:05:06 am

If you are an Apple Reseller, the abuse is endless.

Let's assume, for the moment, that Apple also decides that its user base no longer needs PCI slots. Think about it, the next Mac Pro replacement is smaller, Apple is pushing Thunderbolt. When Apple moved from PCI-X to PCIe in the G5, they went cold turkey even though the chipset they used still supported PCI-X. Remember having to replace all those PCI cards? Wasn't cheap was it. Do you think Apple cares about your existing investment? Does this become the final blow to Apple in professional graphics, editing, and effects?

So let's review...

Apple starts with killing Xserve with no replacement, then kills FCS 3 (Soundtrack Pro, Color, DVD Studio Pro), Final Cut Server, not to mention Shake. Has anyone noticed that Apple Remote Desktop is looking pretty dead too? Apple won't divulge their roadmap because businesses LOVE surprises. By the same token, I'm sure Apple avoids looking at their supplier's roadmaps. I guess decisions are best made in a vacuum.

To be serious for a moment, my gut tells me that Apple is a victim of their own metrics. Before the iCrap, Apple had a profitable business with their core professional markets. In fact, Apple threw a lot of money at purchasing companies and their technologies to go after the Professional audio and video markets. Astarte, Nothing Real, Emagic, Macromedia (final cut only), Final Touch, and I know I am missing a couple. This was their core market. Then the iCrap started to really take off. Apple started to take away engineering resources from the Pro Apps.

In any event, Apple is making a ton of money on the iCrap which makes revenue from Pro Apps and the Mac Pro look like pocket change. Still profitable, but pocket change. I asked my brother about this situation about a month ago. He got his MBA from NYU. He's no dummy. His retort was generally this...

Apple is a public company that seeks to maximize profits. I replied, "But Apple holds significant market share in certain vertical markets. Why kill it?" He says, "The other stuff makes more money. Every company has limited resources, even if they are the highest valued company on the NASDAQ. Thus, they are going to put those resources into areas they get the most value and return."

He concluded, "Let's face it. Apple isn't really into you anymore."


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Alan Lloyd
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 23, 2011 at 5:45:59 pm

[Mark Suszko] "You make us sound like wives of an abusive husband"

And some are finally realizing it.

As Jeff put it, the margin as a consumer electronics gadget company is so much better than the margin as a pro application development company that where this is going is easy to see.

Get ready for a new inundation of "cool kids" who have bucketloads of plugins and no storytelling sense whatsoever.


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Jeff Bernstein
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 23, 2011 at 7:09:29 pm

The margin per product is actually better with Apple's pro products. When it comes to their consumer products, how do they do it? Volume Volume Volume


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Scott Sheriff
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 24, 2011 at 6:45:50 pm

[Mark Raudonis] "Success or failure? What say you?"

Failure. I referred to it as "the New Coke syndrome"

http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/2710

Scott Sheriff
Director
http://www.sstdigitalmedia.com

I have a system, it has stuff in it, and stuff hooked to it. I have a camera, it can record stuff. I read the manuals, and know how to use this stuff and lots of other stuff too.
You should be suitably impressed...

"If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur." ---Red Adair


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Mike Cohen
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 25, 2011 at 6:15:03 pm

I think this is a hypothetical similar situatio:

Ford releases the new F150 - the workhorse of construction crews - and the invent a new way of steering with a stick instead of a wheel. They also reduce the horsepower and eliminate the ability to tow anything. Sure you could get a 3rd party hitch. But the price is reduced making a whole lot of new customers buy one. Quantity over quality.

Apologies to Ford - could be any product from any company.


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Tim Wilson
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 25, 2011 at 8:52:14 pm

[Mike Cohen] "I think this is a hypothetical similar situation:"

When the Harvard Business School was the first to begin teaching the case study method in 1920, one reason why it was so controversial (and still is, actually) is that sample sizes are necessarily statistically insignificant -- one of a gajillion. They can all be seen as exceptions to "well known economic laws," so what the heck can you learn from them?

With Apple, that's kind of the point. Most of what you're going to learn from an Apple case study is that they write their own rules, which may or may not apply to anyone else.

I'm not saying anything about Apple one way or the other. I'm talking about case studies. I agree that this is going to make a great one, but I'd advise any student of mine that there's not enough to base a case on, one way or the other, for at least a year.

Because what do we know about the iPhone 4 antenna "debacle" a year later? It affected a lot more people, got WAY more ink, and I can summarize the net net in two words: Whatever, dude.

We'll know more in a year, at which time we might find that Apple is an exception to its own exception. Or not.


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John Baumchen
Re: FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
on Jun 27, 2011 at 2:01:47 pm

I see a bright future for Adobe.


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