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Many of you thought I am being paranoid????

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Ned Miller
Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 12, 2010 at 8:44:16 pm

Hah! So you all think I'm paranoid????? See:

https://store.ragan.com/ProductDetails.asp?product=Y0TP03&listshow=Webinars...

It's sponsored by PR Daily. No one follows communications trends for corporate & PR better than Ragan. I tried to warn everyone! Don't be an ostrich to trends...I tickled many of my Fortune 100 clients lately to see if they needed video and as I mentioned a couple of weeks ago on my post they said they're using (and enjoying) their Flips.

And for those who said the higher end "will always be there", yes but the PERCENTAGE of video that we pros consider "higher end" is now smaller because they actually like the look of their home made video. I think it's generational where younger execs grew up on MTV and Youtube. Slickness is out. Most do it because shooting and editing is more fun than their usual function, plus they're young enough to be savvy with media files and self editing. There's demands for them to post vids on social networking sites. For online intranet vids this is what they're using. Maybe the TV show The Office can do an episode on using the Flip and not having to outsource video except for the highest of demands?

And to those who said we can help train them, this gear is so simple they don't need training. Oh well, just wanted you all to know it is not a figment of my imagination. These one touch cameras are game changers. No need to respond, just wanted to defend my real world observation.

Ned Miller
Chicago Videographer
http://www.nedmiller.com
http://www.bizvideo.com


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Ron Lindeboom
Re: Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 12, 2010 at 10:33:32 pm

It is this way, Ned: everyone said that desktop publishing was going to destroy traditional print shops and typographers. The smart ones learned to take their analog craft over onto digital tools and still controlled the bulk of the big accounts decades after their prophesied demise.

The reason?

The digital tools just made for more and more work. Yes, much of it at the lower end and done by people who did not belong to the typographer's union. Where there was once a very tightly controlled market that was the domain of type setters that charged big money, the market doors blew open and there were jobs springing into being that never would have existed if the old rules had been followed.

Sure there are TONS of crap jobs out there, Ned. And the percentage of good paying jobs is relatively small in comparison to the small- to medium-sized budget jobs.

But...

The market itself has grown until there are many more people in this market. Is that good news or bad? It depends on how people price themselves, how well their work is viewed by clients and prospects, how good at marketing they are, etc., etc.

Gone are the halcyon days when a typesetter could hang a shingle, be a crap salesman, and still make a good living.

The same is happening in video.

Markets experience chaotic innovation, suffer disruptions, react to these changing market forces, and then -- to quote Grinner Hester -- those who have to do this because it's in their soul and in their blood, survive at all costs. Everyone else leaves for greener pastures.

It isn't long and the kids in school will quit going after their media degrees (thinking it's cool to be in the field because it seems fun to them), realizing the same thing that 70s kids realized about psychology and liberal arts degrees, that 80s and 90s kids realized about MBA and law degrees, and they will move on to other things.

When fields become so glutted that even the schools realize that encouraging kids with no talent and no real passion for this craft cannot possibly be a credit to their programs, they will cease. They will move on to other things.

Who will survive the shaking and sifting that disruptive innovation brings? Who knows?

Stay tuned. The answer, soon...

Best regards,

Ron Lindeboom
CEO, CreativeCOW.net

Creativity is a type of learning process where the teacher and pupil are located in the same individual.

Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away.
- Antoine de Saint Exupéry


First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
- Gandhi


Better is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure than to rank with the poor spirits who neither enjoy much, nor suffer much because they live in a gray twilight that knows no victory or defeat. - Theodore Roosevelt





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Nick Griffin
Re: Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 12, 2010 at 10:56:06 pm

Client: "Well, you were right. I really can't seem to make a decent video with a Flip camera and everything sounds so hollow and far away. And I have no idea how to use iMovie even though they made it out to be so simple at the Apple store."

Me: "So perhaps now we can get back to the kind of stuff we did for you last year?"

Client: "Oh, no. Sorry. We already set the budget for the Flip camera, so I guess we'll have to see if we can do a video next year."

Me: (Deep sigh.)


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Ned Miller
Re: Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 12, 2010 at 11:23:09 pm

Thanks Nick. I was beginning to think I was the only one to have a corporate video client base that was turning to do-it-yourself one touch cameras! You are fortunate that your client was disappointed, many of mine are not. They have a slew of twenty-something employees who ain't half bad, they've figure out they need a $40 tripod, softlight and get "acceptable" audio in or move the camera closer. Because they grew up on MTV, Youtube, iReports, cell phone video and User Generated Content they unfortunately like the look, have fun doing it and gain popularity by being the Video Guys.

So I think I will reconfigure my marketing and client mix to move away from the Fortune 100 corporate video scene, even though there are dozens dotting the highways of the Chicago area. Lately I shot a CEO with their DV camera, not to save money but to not make a "scene", they didn't want to make it look like they were wasting money on video! I don't see this movement going away because from what I have experienced the market always moves to what is cheaper and faster, it becomes the New Normal. And these little one touch cameras are only going to improve. Wishful Thinking and Hope are not business strategies...So I will move my marketing towards non-fiction TV, docs, website videos, spots, sports, etc.

Ned Miller
Chicago Videographer
http://www.nedmiller.com
http://www.bizvideo.com


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Ron Lindeboom
Re: Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 13, 2010 at 2:51:57 am

Please do not misunderstand my comments to you or think that I am calling you paranoid, Ned.

My point in this is that yes the market is shaking and it is hard. Things are in chaos and people's ways that worked in the past are being tested in ways and to degrees that never happened before.

But leveraging every ounce of experience, cunning, drive, talent and knowledge we possess, we will outlast the ones that think the answer is found in a box. It's not, it is found inside the head and that is the advantage that creatives possess. Be a creator, it's too easy to replace a button pusher. Especially as more and more button pushers join the field. (I am not saying this to you, Ned -- merely posting the idea in general for the sake of the thread and the ones who will log into this later.)

Unfortunately, many want the market to stay as it's been and the real pros should be the first to adopt things like metadata-fed "media anywhere" on iPhones, Androids, and the like -- yet many are the ones resisting it the most. It will prove their undoing as the market proceeds elsewhere.

But the bright side is that the schools will also get the message that training students for a field in which most of them are not ever going to work, and in which if they stay they will make little money, means they will find the "next big thing" to train people for. (I predict nano-technology as the next big thing.)

Media has an allure -- at least until you are working in it and then you realize that it's just damned hard work with long hours and the pay isn't always that great.

But I believe that the real leaders and innovators will hold at least a sustainable level of livelihood until the market calms down and the glory seekers move on to the next big thing.

Like many, we stayed in this industry even in the years in which we made no money. Why? We are communicators and we have to communicate. That is what we do and what we want to do. We'd hate a real job and so we look at all the changes and try to find our place in them.

While the future, I believe, will roll on to nano-tech as the sexy new girl in town, I think our market will continue redefining itself in terms of media-anywhere-at-any-time. Trying to hold on to the market as it has been is going to get tougher and tougher.

My apologies if my thoughts and comments seem like they are flippant or callous or intended to demean anyone. They are not intended that way. I am merely hoping to throw some thoughts out for consideration.

Best regards,

Ron Lindeboom
CEO, CreativeCOW.net

Creativity is a type of learning process where the teacher and pupil are located in the same individual.

Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away.
- Antoine de Saint Exupéry


First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
- Gandhi


Better is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure than to rank with the poor spirits who neither enjoy much, nor suffer much because they live in a gray twilight that knows no victory or defeat. - Theodore Roosevelt





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Mark Suszko
Re: Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 12, 2010 at 11:55:38 pm

Ned, from the same web page with the short video promoting the webinar, where the guy is talking about how simple it is to "just press the red button":

----------------------------
You May Also Like
TOTAL IMMERSION VIDEO WORKSHOP How to use cameras and lights to capture the action
Category: Workshops
Learn more...
Price: $745
Member Price: $645

WORKSHOP Telling better stories with video
Category: Workshops
Learn more...
Price: $745
Member Price: $645


--------------------------------

Oh yes, pressing the red button is easy... Everything that comes before and after that, we can charge good money for, still. Which is why I'm not going to panic over this.

Not saying these things shouldn't be taken seriously, however, the guy in the ad is over-simplifying and over-selling, nothing new in the corporate PR world. Whether it is Sun-Tsu, Dale Carnegie, The Peter Principle and 7 Habits, Chicken Soup for the CEO, "Who moved my cheese?" or "The Klingon guide to Business", every year somebody makes a big noise that their re-hashing of time-tested business principles is a revolutionary new guide you MUST have. Or that some great new technology will change the game completely. Well, it might, but usually it doesn't, it turns out to be this year's fashion trend and last year's dead-end. You can drive yourself crazy chasing these things and worrying about it. Just a couple years back, corporations all were jumping on the bandwagon to create avatar versions of their companies in "Second Life", because sure as shooting, we were all going to do our B2B communications in our underwear from home, in a live 3-d virtual space, dressed as furries or something. These days Second Life is like a haunted defunct miniature golf course.

On the same day I get magazines and web media telling me about breakthroughs in 3-d, in high end HD like the Red Camera and how *everybody* must go get one tomorrow or be deader than disco... simultaneously I get waves of jabber about this flip camera hand-puppetry folly putting every man jack of us on the street with tin cups because the CEO wants his next Annual Report to look like the "Chocolate Rain" video so investors will feel he's authentic?. Please. I think there's plenty of hype at either end of the scale. Everybody get in off the ledge and have some warm cocoa for a minute.

I'm not saying you shouldn't anticipate and strategize. You ignore these things at your peril, and you SHOULD be forward-thinking, visionary, a "Shockwave Rider" like Brunner writes about. But don't sell your possesions and bug out for the desert just yet, just because the flip, aka the fratcam, is popular. Much of what is generated from fratcams is also quite ephemeral, and the value perception is skewed by the low expectations and cost of entry. Ted Sturgeon's Law is still well in effect today. You want to concern yourself with the other ten percent. In every gold rush, the ones that make the most money are not the prospectors, but those who make a living servicing the prospectors' trade. This webinar guy is charging very nicely to tell the flippers the video equivalent of "Guitar Hero will not make you into Steve Miller". I have heard this song before: I bought my first sailboat last year for "ONLY" $350.00. "And that's all I need to get on the water and live my dream, right?" (LOL)


It is definitely something to think about and make strategic plans about, not be complacent. But I'm confident we can navigate our way forward and still make as good as, or even a better living than before these marvels, based on core principles that never go out of style.

To quote the band REM: "It's the end of the world as we know it; and I feel fine."







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Ned Miller
Re: Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 13, 2010 at 12:12:46 am

Good points Mark. I'm not freaking out about it, just getting depressed about the cheese being moved again.

Had a good run with many of these companies. Maybe for my wife's bday I'll buy her a Flip to see what the buzz is about.

Ned Miller
Chicago Videographer
http://www.nedmiller.com
http://www.bizvideo.com


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Alan Lloyd
Re: Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 13, 2010 at 5:23:36 am

Maybe those of us carrying a touch of gray (or more) ought to start thinking about conducting some of these workshops.

Then again, I have clients - and clients of clients - that are walking back away from the webcam look because it's just too grisly for doctors, C-level execs, and the like.

There's a sweet spot there, and I think I'm finding it.


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Zane Barker
Re: Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 13, 2010 at 5:17:50 am

The thing I find rather humerus is that you can tell that the video they are using to promote the thing was defiling NOT shot on a Flip, as keying out video from a flip would not be vary good. Plus the audio was way to good to come from a flip.

Now I actually do own a flip, I have in a pinch gotten some decent b role footage from it.

Flip or no flip the thing that is happening is that companies are beginning to see that for a lot of internal things that they do not need to spend a lot of money on video production. And quite frankly they are right, to take a simple video statement from someone or to make a fun in office video it really does not make sense to hire a production company to do those things. That said there will always be a place for quality video production in corporations.

The economy is hard you cannot blame companies for trying to save a some money by doing things that don't need production value in house at low cost.




Hindsight is always 1080p



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Shane Ross
Re: Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 13, 2010 at 9:21:54 pm

Let them go and do this themselves...let them see the results they get. if they are OK with them...then ah well, whatchagonnado? Hope that they don't come back and say "see what I did for this much, why should I pay you that much?" They will just become grinders. Perhaps they were grinders just waiting to come out.

But if they do it, and go "Oh my god that looks like crap, and this isn't as easy as it looks...Hey, can you help us?" There you go. Now they see what their money buys. And now they will pay it and be happy to. THOSE are the clients you want to retain.

But what the hell do I know? I edit TV shows. But I know that producers have not hired me and have gone with the cheaper kids, but then found that their inexperience in many areas didn't make it a good working experience, and eventually brought me in to fix the show (or someone else). And from then on, they hired the experienced person at their rate. Because now they know why I cost as much as I do.



Shane



GETTING ORGANIZED WITH FINAL CUT PRO DVD...don't miss it.
Read my blog, Little Frog in High Def


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Timothy J. Allen
Re: Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 15, 2010 at 4:04:55 pm

Things are never as good or as bad as first reported.

On the plus side, the use of video as a communications tool continues a stratospheric rise. According to the "comScore 2009 U.S. Digital Year in Review" online video viewing is up 95% from just one year ago.

Opportunities decrease... and they increase. People are consuming more professional (and longer) content online than ever before. My point is, there is a place for content creators but you have to understand that that place continues to shift.

That in itself is not good or bad, it's just different. It becomes good or bad depending on which basket you put your eggs in.

That particular report is more about digital marketing than just video, but it offers some interesting insights.

For those interested:
http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Presentations_Whitepapers/2010/The_200...



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Mark Suszko
Re: Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 17, 2010 at 2:11:39 pm

Hey, Ned:

http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/17/869748


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Mark Suszko
Re: Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 17, 2010 at 3:42:37 pm

Tim, I went to the link you posted, and when I saw it was an unchanging locked-down wide shot of a guy with shotgun audio that sounded like it came out of a bucket, I stopped watching it about 30 seconds in. Which is ironic, considering his message and our topic here.


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Timothy J. Allen
Re: Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 17, 2010 at 8:01:17 pm

Great point. The white paper that you can get from the link at that page is more entertaining than the video. The video almost seems like an afterthought. (Sound familiar?)

It does further demonstrate that what is perceived as "good enough" often prevails. I still shudder when I see things that sound like that and are lit like that (i.e., not lit), but that ship sailed long ago. (And YouTube was the bottle that christened its voyage.)



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Milton Hockman
Re: Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 17, 2010 at 2:12:45 pm

I'd like to read the link but it says its not available anymore...

Freelancer Designer Virginia


Web, Video, Graphic Design Info Blog


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Ned Miller
Re: UPDATE Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 17, 2010 at 10:29:40 pm

Milton: The link was for a Flip seminar Ragan is running, must be down, but he's a proponent of Web 2.0 communications, see:

http://www.ragan.com/ME2/Sites/Default.asp?SiteID=515F01808E514462A24476DA1...

HERE'S MY UPDATE: Today is late Wednesday afternoon and I just completed (barely) shooting 3 days for a giant international IT consulting firm that had simultaneous large conferences in Chicago/Paris/India. Each site had a pro crew and by early afternoon we had to select best takes and upload at the Westin to Paris so the footage would be edited overnight and shown the following morning at each of the 3 sites. Well, mid Tuesday AT&T shut down (or perhaps we crashed it?) the Westin's internet capability because we exceeded their capacity and the place went bonkers! Imagine an IT symposium with no internet!!!! We had bene given a dedicated ethernet vlan line of 4MB but still choked it. Solution: I had my media wrangler/editor rush to his alma mater and upload on their T1 line.

The moral of the story is: I came within a hair's breath of using the client's Flip camera (although I have never touched one!), double recording the audio on my Panasonic HPX300 P2 camera, and sending the audio separately as a wav or MP3, which probably could have been emailed or taken to Starbucks or Kinkos for an upload, and then synced at the French editors. We were extremely close to doing that! And although I have been a DP for 33 years I am not sure my footage would look any better than a Flip because I had to shoot in the DV codec to keep the file size down, then in FCP export convert into PAL (ugh), upload to Paris, they edited and converted BACK to NTSC (another ugh), and show on hallway plasmas at the hotels and convention centers.

So...It may be useful to have a Flip in one's toolkit? I suppose soon they will have an audio mini jack input? Or record audio separately like the old film days.



Ned Miller
Chicago Videographer
http://www.nedmiller.com
http://www.bizvideo.com


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Alan Lloyd
Re: UPDATE Many of you thought I am being paranoid????
on Mar 18, 2010 at 1:32:37 pm

Feel your pain, man. I was switching a multicamera symposium webcast when the "anointed" carrier lost their connection. Again, at an IT event. Some perverse gremlin at work?

We carried on while lots of IT craziness went on around us. (At least we had archives.)

The patch they bodged together involved using (sharing) the hotel's T-1. Worked OK...until the next break, when every attendee started checking mail and messages.

It's nice when it works, it's something very different when it doesn't.

Maybe instead of a Flip - if it's meant to be in a DV codec - I'd keep an old PD-170 around. At least it has real (XLR) audio connectivity.


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