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This is incredible...Did You Know?

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Ron Lindeboom
This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 22, 2009 at 7:53:16 pm



Best regards,

Ron Lindeboom

Creativity is a type of learning process where the teacher and pupil are located in the same individual.

Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away.
- Antoine de Saint Exupéry






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Bob Zelin
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 22, 2009 at 9:54:54 pm

oh big deal -
from the original article -
http://books.google.com/books?id=JMTnTBmt7F0C&pg=PA181&lpg=PA181&dq=price+o...

the CMX-600 editing system cost $500,000 in 1972. Could you please explain how I can make this much money in 2009 ?

In 1973, the networks were using the Norelco PCP-90 portable cameras at $180,000 each. Can you please tell me how to make this much money today in 2009 ?

from before I was in the business -
Ampex AVR-3 (2-Inch Quad)

"Super-good, outrageously expensive, and mammoth in size, a quad VTR generally is considered the best video recording and playback machine money can buy. An Ampex AV R -3 will run about $250,000 for a fully-loaded, signal-processed and image-enhanced machine."

How can your advertisers charge $250,000 for any product, when this was the price in the 1960's ?

from Wiekepedia -
(In 1956, one reel of tape cost $300, equivalent to $2,000 in 2000, and the recorders cost about $75,000 to $100,000, about a half a million dollars today.)

How do I charge this amount of money today ? Isn't this 2009 ?

Bob Zelin





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Mike Cohen
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 23, 2009 at 12:16:30 am

Nice graphics.
So I guess this means that computers are taking over in 2049. I'll be 77 so a computer that can cook, clean and do my taxes would be welcome.

Comparing the rate of saturation of internet devices vs tv or radio is not logical, because times have changed. My grandparents envied their relatives who had a tv, but grandpa made like $15 a week in 1945. $15 in 1945 = $310 in today's dollars. So on $1200/month can one afford the 2009 equivalent of a shiny new RCA television, such as a 42" LCD? Probably not.

What is the point of all this information? Are we supposed to be scared that the rest of the world is growing bigger than the little old USA? Well, since this is the COW, we are the world, so this is expected. Do not fear the future.

However as Bob has pointed out, how do we make money with the world changing at this high rate of speed? This is the big question indeed.

Mike Cohen


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Ron Lindeboom
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 23, 2009 at 4:20:24 am

[Mike Cohen] "What is the point of all this information? Are we supposed to be scared that the rest of the world is growing bigger than the little old USA? Do not fear the future."

I didn't post it to strike fear in people's minds, I posted it because those that think we are having a "recession" and that things are going to get back to normal anytime soon, are simply uninformed. This is a major redistributing of wealth, power and resources around the world -- and the country that once accounted for 15% of the world's population and that once enjoyed 40% of the world's resources for about a 100 years or so, is not going to be able do it over the next 100 years. Hard fact: They won't get to do it another 10 years.

I posted this because some people want to live in these times as if in a few months, things will revert back to the Keynesian cycles of the past. They're not. When Alan Greenspan (former head of the Federal Reserve) resigned, he told Congress that he was out of touch with the present world of economics and that the "enlightened self interest" of capitalistic laissez faire and the usual capitalistic economic patterns just didn't work anymore. He coined the term, "The Age of Turbulence." And he is one of the smartest men in America.

We are in a world of heightened competition and just as areas of the United States grew as economic centers due to their proximity to resources, etc. -- such as the steel belt growing near the coal reserves and the midwest breweries growing there because of their proximity to the grain belt, etc. -- the future is going to be one wherein certain countries are going to be strong in certain industries due to the human resources and dispositions of the people. It is yet to be determined where many of the players will stand.

Fear is not why I posted it.

Knowledge is power -- especially in an information age.

Bob Dylan was right, the times they are a' changin' -- and faster than ever.

Back in 1979, I read Alvin Toffler's book, Future Shock. It rocked my thinking and much of what I have done over the last 30 years or so is directly due to reading it. Thank you, Mr. Toffler, I am forever indebted to you. Future Shock gave me some ideas about the world to come that I have used to do many of the things that I have done over the years.

But there are two books I have been reading that are up-to-the-minute reports of what is happening right now, today, in the world. Those that understand what is in them, will have a leg up on the competition -- and I mean that seriously. (In case you don't know the origin of the term, to get a leg up on the competition -- it comes from a dog on a fire hydrant.)

The two greatest books I have read in the past decade are: "The World Is Flat" by Thomas Friedman, and "Chaotics: The Business of Managing and Marketing in the Age of Turbulence" by Philip Kotler. They should be required reading for all kids in early to mid high school to get their attention on more than their iPod -- at least the smart ones that will seek the panoramic mental tools that will enable their success.

Best regards,

Ron Lindeboom

Creativity is a type of learning process where the teacher and pupil are located in the same individual.

Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away.
- Antoine de Saint Exupéry






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Trent Whittington
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 23, 2009 at 4:58:20 am

Its just a matter of time until the robots take over.

Trent Whittington - Currently studying Associate Degree in Digital Television

http://www.facebook.com/trentwhittington


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Ron Lindeboom
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 23, 2009 at 1:03:58 pm

I think I'll have to lay off this forum for a while. I used to like to come here for intelligent, thought provoking discussion. Sheesh.

Ron Lindeboom


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Mike Cohen
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 23, 2009 at 1:53:26 pm

Ron - I was commenting on the video, not your reason for posting it.
Trent - You're right - It is only a matter of time before robots take over. All those closed auto factories are full of robots. A bored robot is a potential enemy.
If you are reading this, you are the resistance.
This is John Connor.


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Mark Suszko
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 23, 2009 at 2:13:28 pm

I can't be everywhere ALL the time, Ron:-)


I've seen this presentation before and forwarded it to my school's principal. She said it gave her nightmares.

If you liked Toffler, the fiction book "Shockwave Rider" by John Brunner may appeal to you. Some of the technical details are obsolete, much of the human insight in it is not.


To me, this turbulence presents many challenges, but also opportunities to find or create new markets and new ways to make a living. The problem I find is in getting the attention of people around me to consider these things seriously. The usual attitude is that all this is happening somewhere far off and has no immediate impact on what goes on locally, so it can be ignored. This is incredibly dangerous thinking. The people who survive and thrive are the ones that look far ahead and plan for what's coming before it hits locally.


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Simon Roughan
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 23, 2009 at 3:08:52 pm

Youre all thinking "Terminator".
Im thinking "Cherry 2000".


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Ron Lindeboom
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 23, 2009 at 6:11:51 pm


[Simon Roughan] "You're all thinking "Terminator". I'm thinking "Cherry 2000"."


I am thinking neither.

I am thinking, "What can I do to compete with robots?"

;o)

Ron Lindeboom


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Chris Blair
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 23, 2009 at 6:17:42 pm

This probably isn't a thought-provoking insight regarding this thread, but we had a jib shoot a while back at a large aluminum manufacturing facility and during the shoot a robot on the manufacturing floor ran amok, slammed into the jib arm and knocked it over. Luckily, the camera wasn't on it and it was only built to one the shorter lengths.

The robots were supposed to be able to sense when they were about to run into something and automatically stop.

This plant literally had robots that roamed the floor doing all sorts of things that 5 years ago humans did. It was both surreal and a little comic.

Chris Blair
Magnetic Image, Inc.
Evansville, IN
http://www.videomi.com


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Mike Cohen
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 23, 2009 at 7:12:05 pm

Some hospitals have Dalek-like courier robots that start off in the Pharmacy and drive around the building delivering meds to nurse's stations. If the robot senses an obstacle (such as a person) it beeps and makes an announcement to get you out of its way. It can even get on and off of elevators.

Another type of medical droid is remote controlled by a doctor in a remote location so that a medical exam can be conducted from afar. Kind of like a Predator aircraft but for healthcare.

Then there is the most well-known medical robot, the DaVinci surgical robot. It is controlled by a human via remote control, either across the OR or around the world. It is debatable whether this saves time or improves outcomes, but the ability to do surgery on a beating heart is pretty amazing.

If any of these devices were to become self-aware it would not be much of a problem, since they move so slowly...but you never know.

While we have gone off on a robots-taking-over-the-world tangent, I think we can all spend some time trying to anticipate future changes in our industry. At the moment, changes appear to be cutbacks, but assuming the economy recovers things should improve. But perhaps we can also look at future technology, and anticipate areas that will need our services.

Mike Cohen


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Matt Sepeta
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 23, 2009 at 8:07:39 pm

Wow i just laughed out loud.

You didn't happen to get footage of the roguebot did you???

Good Day


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Gav Bott
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 24, 2009 at 4:16:02 am


The only thing we can be certain of is change.....

Was it one of you guys that I stole that one off of? Anyway, that what's forcing my planning into a more "Ali" style - stay on those toes and happy to keep dancing.



The Brit in Brisbane
The Pomme in Production - Brisbane Australia.


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Timothy J. Allen
Re: Robot Technology - Innovation etc.
on Jul 24, 2009 at 6:35:56 pm

Ron,
I appreciate you posting the video. It's been making the rounds around NASA for a while now, but as you said information is power and putting our heads in the sand won't do us any good.

All this talk about robots and the future reminds me of this video:





The production quality of the video isn't that great, but the technology is really cool - and it's real not just speculation. If this robot was wondering the shop floor, it wouldn't matter so much if it ran amok, it still wouldn't hurt anyone.




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Christopher Wright
Re: Robot Technology - Innovation etc.
on Jul 24, 2009 at 6:55:25 pm

Terminator 4, the beginning.....

Dual 2.5 G5, IO, Kona LH, IO, Medea Raid, UL4D, NVidia 6800, 4Gig RAM
Octocore 8 GB Ram, Radeon card, MBP, MXO
Windows Vista Adobe Studio CS4, Vegas 8.0, Lightwave 9.3, Sound Forge 9, Acid Pro 7, Continuum 5, Boris Red 4, Combustion 2008, Sapphire Effects


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Alan Lloyd
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 24, 2009 at 10:28:53 pm

There's also Brunner's The Sheep Look Up - a very good look at the dark side of the future.


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Simon Stutts
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 24, 2009 at 7:28:32 pm

Seen this before, but a pretty cool video none the less. Mindblowing to see how exponentially technology has been advancing.

I'm a bit dubious as to some of their "facts," though - how does one measure the computational power of the human brain, exactly? Is that even knowable?

And I think it's a bit of a misleading thing to say, anyway - even if a computer had the sheer computational power of a human brain, I would think that it means very little until you crack the software gap. Lots of stuff that's simple and natural for our minds to accomplish is by no means an easy thing to tell a computer how to do reliably.


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Chris Blair
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 25, 2009 at 1:13:06 am

Sorry to stray...but speaking of the daVinci surgical robot mentioned earlier. We did a spot for an area hospital that bought one. Their CEO saw a sales video where they showed the device doing miniature origami...so guess what we had to build a TV commercial around.

You got it. ORIGAMI and a SURGICAL ROBOT!

I didn't like the concept, but here's the result.

http://www.videomi.com/clients/Deaconess/daVinci/daVinci_Preview.wmv

Chris Blair
Magnetic Image, Inc.
Evansville, IN
http://www.videomi.com


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Chuck Pullen
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Jul 28, 2009 at 2:48:02 am

Future generations will have one of two career choices: Robot creation OR robot repair...That is of course until we design a robot capable of designing and building other robots, then of course that robot will design and build a robot capable of fixing other robots. The only thing that will stand in the way of robot nirvana? Those pesky "flesh bags" as Bender "Bending" Rodriguez would call us!


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Michelle Aubrecht
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Aug 7, 2009 at 1:08:12 pm

Aside from all the discussion about robots taking over the world, I think that even if a computer can beat a master at Chess, we have to remember that the computer is not embodied. (Think I Robot) It cannot think like a person because it lacks physical sensation. We are not thinking separately from our bodies. George Lakoff's Philosophy in the Flesh reframes many assumptions in Western thought regarding disembodied reasoning as understood by Kant, Descartes and others.

I am studying video games as a way to teach because I think that visual communication combined with just-in-time information and engaging the learner can teach students in profound ways. Because the field is changing quickly, I'm learning how to find the similarities in software programs and build upon that. I'm also learning how to learn new software all the time. Teaching students to think and reason and do research is more important than the subject matter - because it might change.

I'm 48 and learning a lot of new things but I already knew how to reason, research, and figure out how to discern credible sources. Recent studies indicate that playing video games and probably using software is like learning a second language, it changes the way the brain develops. But if students don't learn to think analytically, then Robots might really take over the world.

This is Sarah Connor.


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Jeff Bach
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Aug 14, 2009 at 10:34:41 pm

Almost everything is on a "lifecycle" for lack of a better word. I would argue that the services described above have all reached a point in their lifecycle where everything of value has been wrung out of it. The lifecycle is not over though, it is simply at its most commoditized point. The fact that a robot has replaced the prior product/service/person simply means that the function had reached a point where it had been so described, processed, regimented, and systematized that a robot could be built to follow all of the rules that describe what needs to be done.

Robots are not bad. They are what happens at the ultimate low value end of a lifecycle. This is happening all over, with everything that can be described by rules and processes. Basically anything that is repetitive can be automated, which is all that robots are. Further examples include: taxes being done by Indians in Mumbai, x-rays being done by those same Indians, cheap nasty manufacturing in China (duh), but also crops being planted by machine with the help of GPS guidance systems, paper being made on presses 125 feet wide going 35 miles an hour. on and on.

The value is gone when a process can be sued to describe something. Value remains where things are one-off, custom, and otherwise cannot be described for purposes of automating a process.

The above are all examples of formerly high value service that reached the low value commodity end of their lifecycle. Prior to being automated, EACH example had a long and high value life.

To me the point that gets missed in this line of thought is that by the time in the lifecycle that automation shows up, the high value has been reassigned to something that is new. The clock is reset and starts over in effect back at the valuable specialty point of the lifecycle. A good example of this is the craze around 3D movies. They cost a premium right? They are new right? I think they are positioned back at the beginning of the lifecycle for movies. The trad 2D movies as we all know are now DVD'ed, streamed, pirated and otherwise treated like commodities.

Innovation is important. Thinkers, creators and those looking to solve problems are no longer involved or needed in the commodity part of the cycle. Instead, they are off solving problems and coming up with the new things and services that live at the specialty front end of yet one more new cycle. And if they are not they should be.

To me, this is the problem with unions and other complacent sectors of our culture. They stay in place, while everything else changes around them, leapfrogs them and soon replaces them.
my .02
Jeff

Jeff Bach
Quietwater Films
Madison, WI.


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Ron Lindeboom
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Aug 14, 2009 at 11:45:56 pm

[Jeff Bach] "To me the point that gets missed in this line of thought is that by the time in the lifecycle that automation shows up, the high value has been reassigned to something that is new. The clock is reset and starts over in effect back at the valuable specialty point of the lifecycle. Innovation is important. Thinkers, creators and those looking to solve problems are no longer involved or needed in the commodity part of the cycle. Instead, they are off solving problems and coming up with the new things and services that live at the specialty front end of yet one more new cycle. And if they are not they should be."

I would agree with this thought 100%, Jeff.

Unfortunately...

It ignores an important reality of the market, one that you can spot quite easily if you look around you: the innovators and thinkers are few, while the worker bees are many.

It is the worker bees that are being put out of work, not the thinkers and innovators.

In the World Just Past (Passed?), the preponderance of workers were those who did the menial tasks and/or repetitious labor.

There is becoming increasingly less and less room for this kind of worker, at the same time that there is becoming a greater and greater population base and an ever increasing demand for primary resources -- such as food, water, energy and other "primary" resources.

In an Information Age, the "haves" and the "have nots" will be more measured by gray matter and vision than by money or even muscles. With a lot of cunning and ambition and enthusiasm, money can be found and opportunities exploited. But when muscle is not needed, because the value of labor has been so diminished, there is going to far less opportunity for those who have no vision or real ability to innovate.

Therein lies the rub...

Ron Lindeboom


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Jeff Bach
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Aug 17, 2009 at 3:24:17 pm

Readers take heed - I think Ron has hit the nail on the head as far as articulating the dangers of complacency and failing to keep your nose in the wind as far as discovering new things that lead to new sources of work and revenue.



Jeff Bach
Quietwater Films
Madison, WI.


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Ron Lindeboom
Re: This is incredible...Did You Know?
on Aug 17, 2009 at 4:45:07 pm

Thank you, Jeff.

One of the smartest men on the planet is Alan Greenspan (that doesn't mean that I always agree with his politics or his worldview, because I am not one of the smartest men on the planet and so I reserve a little stupidity for myself), and he calls these times "The Age of Turbulence." I like that description. It really captures the essence of the times we face.

Another name that is being kicked around is "The New Normal" -- when describing the chaotic near-dizzying sense of hyper-competition that we are facing thanks to the internet.

Thomas Friedman, author of The World Is Flat (highly recommended), says that there are two kinds of countries: fast countries, and slow countries. He cites those that try to get involved in the new order of things vs those who try to use protectionism to protect themselves in the face of hyper-connectedness and hyper-competition.

As I read these kind of ideas, I come away from it all with the belief that too many of our kids got fed the Self-Esteem Kool-Aid and they drank every drop. But many of the kids from around the world were fed no such thing. The world doesn't owe them anything other than what they can take from it. They are motivated. They are hyper-competitive because they want to earn a place on the world stage.

Too many Americans still think they have a God-given place on the world stage. To that, all I can say, is that even the Good Book says that you must "take the book." It isn't given to anyone.

The future is going to be a rough place for those who think that life is fair and that they are entitled to their place in it.

Like Alice down the rabbit hole, things keep getting curiouser and curiouser.

If only they'd stop shaking...

Ron Lindeboom


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