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The Future

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Randall Raymond
The Future
on Dec 21, 2007 at 4:13:08 am

I would like to hear your views on this...

I find myself now watching a good 40% of my daily motion picture allotment to be right here on the internet. Most of that is on MSNBC.com. The other 60% is more traditional - the big tube - documentaries, feature films, what have you. Your ratio may be higher or lower.

I think the trend is towards internet video - it's video on demand (when you're ready to watch it) - we can debate that trend - but as local stations go all digital - the trend seems to go all in one direction - the internet.

Let's talk about the future. If there's one advantage to a business owner - it's guessing it right in the moves he makes. What are your guesses? That's what I want to hear.

If there is any topic on the Business & Marketing forum of the Cow that is of more importance - let me know - it's your future - if you guess it right - all is good - if not, you're out of business, sooner, if not, later. I want to hear your views.


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Mark Suszko
Re: The Future
on Dec 21, 2007 at 10:15:55 pm

If you are asking for predictions, mine is this:

We will see another revolution in video codecs, one that will allow decent, lossless, full quality viewing and audio over dialup connections. Not if, only when.

Some possible outcomes from this:
Severe depression of rates in the near term for satellite uplinks and microwave hops. Your big or medium-sized ENG vans become some guy in a Hyudai finding a landline or wifi connection nearby to make his live shots with.

To fight the loss of uplink business, uplink services use the same compression to jam more signals onto one transponder and drop the price to a ridiculous level. But it still can't compete with a landline network on certain levels.

When the data becomes this cheap to move around easily, everything becomes commoditized, especially in news. Your field footage takes no more time to flash to a cubicle in Mumbai than it does to go across town, and so your packages might be edited by a guy or gal several time zones away, cheaper than you are willing to work for. Large projects get assigned to teams that may be physically far apart. Overall, rates for editors and other console jockeys will drop closer to minimum wage thanks to global pressure and competition.

Shooters will still do about the same as now, maybe better, because they can send their footage live from the field to any market at any distance. Look for quick phone negotiations and auction-type bidding for hot, topical, freelance stringer footage, even as it is being shot.

When storage becomes so cheap, and compression so good, you begin to see a possible world where nothing ever need be erased. As that sea of information gets deeper exponentially, markets and services for swimming into it to retrieve a meaning will grow.








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Mark Raudonis
Re: The Future
on Dec 22, 2007 at 2:42:26 am

[Mark Suszko] "When storage becomes so cheap, and compression so good, you begin to see a possible world where nothing ever need be erased. As that sea of information gets deeper exponentially, markets and services for swimming into it to retrieve a meaning will grow.
"


Nothing ever erased? Come on! I think you'll see time travel before this prediction ever comes true.

On the other hand, I totally agree that the market for data mining will go through the roof. It's no longer about storing it.. it will be about FINDING it.

Mark




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Randall Raymond
Re: The Future
on Dec 22, 2007 at 5:20:13 am

[Mark Suszko] "We will see another revolution in video codecs, one that will allow decent, lossless, full quality viewing and audio over dialup connections. Not if, only when."

That boggles my mind! Digits is Digits. You seem so sure of this, what is it based on - some redefinition of 'bandwidth'? Sub-digits?


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Rich Rubasch
Re: The Future
on Dec 23, 2007 at 9:43:19 pm

More content, and with just about everything being recorded, I agree it will become more of how to find it. The point was that the original poster is getting most of his content from the internet. I rarely watch anything on the internet. Maybe a demo reel here and there. I have DSL at home and YouTube stutters on playback. I have HD cable service, and I am a snob about watching high quality video in surround. I have always appreciated broadcast quality signals.

So, if you believe a lot of content is going to be served up on the web and you want a piece of the action, I would pay close attention to the codec software companies and companies that make compression software. This is where the future trends will be made. Become a service provider and know more about the various codecs and how to serve them up and you could make a lot of money just encoding clips, much like dub houses make copies of dvds today.

I believe we will have more choices where content comes from, but I believe there will be satellite and cable, web and hard media. Some people want more organized content that can be expanded like the cable services. Some like the wide open, currently lower quality (with a download wait) broad choices of web video.

I still appreciate a well produced, nicely delivered, national news broadcast in HD just before dinner. I can still DVR the show and watch it at 5:38 if I want, and still be done by 6.

Look for devices that can scour the web for content that you specify with keywords and download at night to your hard drive for viewing when you like. I have also predicted that ALL televisions will have built in MPEG encoders and a hard drive built in so at the very least you can pause, record or rewind a show...even slo mo. There will still be a need for menu driven devices like Tivo and the Motorola Moxi, but TVs should and will all have a small hard drive or alt least some memory to buffer a show. Invest in companies that start talking about these kinds of technologies.

I don't think I'll be watching too much content on the web anytime soon, but since I'm getting a video iPod for Christmas (I heard) there might be a clip or two stored on there for future viewing.

Don't count on it.

Rich Rubasch
Tilt Media


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Mike Cohen
Re: The Future
on Dec 26, 2007 at 3:30:26 pm

It is difficult to predict the future. Disney tried it for years:
http://www.pollsb.com/polls/poll/4702/disney-s-highways-of-the-future

I recently re-read 2 books written in 2000. Both books talked about the move from television to the internet, and both wrongly predicted that no one would be interested.



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Ron Lindeboom
Re: The Future
on Dec 26, 2007 at 4:16:24 pm


Mike,

Unfortunately, those outside of California have never seen the "Disney Highway of the Future." The pilot program was done here and then Walt lost interest and focused on building Disney World out of the swamps near Orlando. He ran out of money before he could build a Floridian system like that which we have had here in California since the early 1960s. The electro-magnetic hover cars -- we call them buzzers due to the sound they make -- have been commonplace here for decades now. The Thermo-Matic


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Randall Raymond
Re: The Future
on Dec 27, 2007 at 12:42:13 am

[Ron Lindeboom] "The Solar-Meld


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