my predictions for 2006
I beleive that 2006 will be a particularly significant year in the development of the wedvidbiz. These are my predictions:
1. A resurgence of interest in "good basic event coverage". 3D photo montages, glidecam pans of flower gardens, B&W shots with RED roses, long dissolves etc. will fall from favor.
2. HD flavored vidcams will start appearing at more weddings. The market for prints from screengrabs will grow by a factor of 100+.
3. Wedding videographers will evolve into seeing themselves as videographers first wedvidders second. Preferred training materials will cease to be so wedding-centric.
4. WEVA will announce a radical change in direction.
5. There will be a flood of photographers wanting to break into video.
6. VU wedvid forum will become the defacto forum for the 4EG. Hal will get more beer, and the 4EG will get a truly valuable resource which they will not be tempted (or able) to control and suffocate. The forum will go subscription based in the second part of the year.
I will offer to disagree with premise number one. Because you and most other event guys have seen so much of this, on a weekly basis, you're burned out on it. But from the customer's POV, it doesn't matter how old or cliche it becomes, nobody else's video matters, theirs is unique *to them*, and they will continue to ask for this stuff, at least the ones getting married for the the first time. Those that are having a second or third marriage may refine their tastes a little as you suggest, is my opinion. Or they may say "the heck with it, let's go hog-wild MTV on it this time", becasue there's less reason for pretense the second time around.
The younger couples (they seem to be getting married younger all the time) have their tastes driven, for bad or worse, by the current crop of crud they see on cable TV, so demand for gauche or effected looks will stay the same, if not increase. You could always choose not to service those types of accounts, I suppose, but somebody will. Or worse, a civilian with a home moovie kamera and some ten-dollar shovelware on his Dell from Best Buy will take it on; he's got eleventy-five different 3-d wipes and damn ifn' he ain't a-gunna use 'em ALL, yeee-haw!
Mark - That prediction could be wrong of course, they all could be - predictions are always uncertain, especially when they concern the future.
agreement or disagreement is fine but also more predictions.
I think #1 is based more on your personal taste and desires; I still LIKE that sort of thing, if it's well done. Not saying you're wrong, Peter, but just saying that tastes differ, and I haven't seen the trend that you posit.
I'd modify #5 somewhat. Not only will there be more photographers getting into video (with HDV camcorders, I suspect), but there will be a lot more of us videographers getting into photography. The two fields are merging, and eventually I think we will all be "visual media recordists" or some such.
I think #6 is interesting, since I'm one of the moderators on the VU forum. You could be right, but I have no inside knowledge either way. 4EG has their own forums, but there is plenty of overlap between 4EG, VU membership, and EventDV magazine.
#7. More use of HDD field recorders, to get around the limitations of tape.
#8. I think (or hope, maybe) that we'll start to see some videographers incorporating surround sound into their products. It's a logical companion to HD.
#9. (Dark prediction here). The RIAA will file suit against some poor wedding videographer for the use of copyrighted music. I'll make this one for a three-year period, since it might not happen in 2006. But I think it WILL happen eventually.
1. you are right of course - my preference is for simpler more subtle styling but I don't mean that highly stylised edits will disappear, if the money is available they can often be the best choice. It's in our own interests, and in the interests of our clients that we break the simple=cheap equation that is the obvious corollary to expensive=elaborate.
5. this is a post i made on WEVA forum a few days ago:
I got an answer to my question. I emailed a couple of screengrabs from a canon XL H1 to a professional photo printer. Explained I had video screengrabs that I wanted to print and display at a bridal show alongside the booths of professional photographers. The question was how big can i go before lack of resolution makes my work look bad compared to the photographers'? This lab prints work for a lot of professional photographers.
Just got the following email:
These are very high quality video screengrabs.
You will get excellent 8x10, good 11x14 and ok 16x20.
Let me know what you would like me to do.
6. Yes I checked out the 4EG forums - very nice and shiny, look like they've never been used. hehe.
More HDV cams at weddings? That's like saying less demand for VHs tapes. But the screengrabs print thing is interesting. I wonder if the switch to HDV will have an impact on how we cover weddings. I read a post recently about how wedding photography and videography will merge in the next few years. Will photoshoots become videoshoots? It seems that for many wedding photgraphers the money shots dont come from the ceremony or the reception but from the photoshoot where the photographer more or less directs the action. I sometimes wish the rate of change would slow down a bit and give us time to catch up.