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Re: NAB 2016: What is standing the test of time? (The 1 Week Edition)

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Tim Wilson
Re: NAB 2016: What is standing the test of time? (The 1 Week Edition)
on Apr 27, 2016 at 9:06:09 pm

[Oliver Peters] "I just don't see these as the way most of us will do productions for many years, if ever."

As much as I tend to hype, I'm not feeling much VR, but I'm VERY much feeling 360. It's already moving into the kinds of mainstream where very many of you are working -- news at the New York Times, red carpet events, Coachella, YouTube, etc. I think perhaps most immediately as things like DVD extras and their streaming equivalents -- that is, not MOVIES, but things that allow you look around sets and stages. All the way around behind the scenes if you will.

Videoblocks is also already monetizing 360 stock, and I KNOW there are a lot of stock shooters among us.

I'll save the rest for an essay I'm working on, including why I'm less bullish on VR than 360, but I think it will be PART (but no more than a part) of what more folks are doing than they might think, sooner than they might think.

[Oliver Peters] "it also struck me that Avid is delusional, because some within the company seem to think Avid storage can live on its own without the customer wanting to also invest in Media Composer"

Surely this was NAB jiggery-pokery, right?

Bill's understandable impression notwithstanding, there's simply no question in my mind that Adobe is the current big dog at NAB, and if you want to swing for the fences, there's no point in delivering a solution that doesn't include Adobe compatibility.

Not that there's anything wrong with bases-clearing doubles for FCPX-only solutions, but no kidding, anybody playing to win is taking Adobe alllll the way into account.

Because my experience inside Avid was that they knew that Media Composer is the ONLY reason why anybody buys Avid storage. They just also know intimately that the days of shops with Avid-only approaches are long gone, if they ever existed.

(I'm not sure they ever did, but I'm CERTAIN they're hella rare anymore.)

You can see this yourself if you suggest to anyone there that they "admit that MC is done" and just become a storage and services company. Uhm, MC is NOT done -- as Herb observed, the Avid booth was as packed as any on the floor -- and it's the beating heart of any of their workgroup based storage solutions.

That said, if anybody there DOES believe that a non-MC customer will even glance twice at NEXIS, I agree: delusional.

Here's my observation as a geezer. There was a time when NAB attendance was rare. Initially, the only people who went were actual broadcasters. Then the first wave of "cheap" NLEs that were in fact well into 5 figures led to people going to NAB to check out robust video storage, and emerging digital solutions, including DigiBeta and SDI.

Even into the turn of the century, the majority of FCP folks were folks relying on SDI solutions, including Cinewave.

This made sense. Travel to Vegas was hard. Freebie tickets were not widely available. There were very few rooms available at discounted rates.

It's only been since 2002-ish, 2003-ish has become a mainstream thing, as tickets to Vegas have gotten dirt cheap, discounts are everywhere, and nobody in their right mind is buying tickets for it. Any stereotypical YouTube vlogger with an attitude can to get to NAB and back, staying at real places and eating real food, for the price of a couple of GoPros.

As a result, EVERYONE's messaging has trended downmarket from the niches they were in 15, 18, 20 years ago. As deplorable as many here find subscriptions to be, it makes the barrier to entry less than $100, instead of $1000, or a bottom of the line $20,000 MC as recently as 10 years ago.

(This is the 10th anniversary of MC Soft! Which I was privileged enough to introduce on the NAB stage myself.)

I don't think that this has turned NAB into an extension of the Supermeet...but it kinda has. And even the first Supermeet (which I was at -- and the year BEFORE that, I was encouraging Michael Horton to do it, when he didn't believe that NAB was "an FCP show") understood itself to be not 100% mainstream. And it wasn't.

And now it is.

I don't think this is by any means a bad thing. I was certainly one of the people exerting "downward" pressure on NAB 20 years ago. But I do think the overwhelming success of this leads to a distortion of messaging (you're right, Oliver: pitching NEXIS as a specifically PPro solution is nonsense), and an unhealthy obsession with shiny.

Which is one of the most revolutionary things of all about this year to me: bucking the trend toward "innovation" and focusing instead on "growth."

More of this, please. :-)

I'm definitely learning more about things I missed, so please keep those observations and opinions coming, y'all!

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