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CNET survey results...

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David Miller
CNET survey results...
on Dec 19, 2014 at 2:47:59 am

CNET has posted the results of that survey that they put up back around December 4. You can check out their story here:

http://www.cnet.com/news/survey-shows-polarized-opinions-about-adobe-creati...


As the story indicates, they had only about 284 responses, so it's not a huge sample of people. But they did find some trends.

Check it out.

- David


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Tim Wilson
Re: CNET survey results...
on Dec 19, 2014 at 5:24:36 am
Last Edited By Tim Wilson on Dec 19, 2014 at 6:09:26 am

David, first, thanks for pointing this out.

Please know that what follows isn't directed at you, but is the latest edition in my ongoing rant about questionnaires like this.

If I got 284 responses at the COW, I'd call it a failure, throw it out and try to figure out what I did wrong. I would never tell a soul.

CNET is ranked #53 among US websites, and THAT'S what they have for us. They call it news. I call it click bait. But hey, I clicked. LOL

After they embarrass themselves with such a puny turnout, the headline writer appears to either have not read the story, or not know the meaning of the word "polarized."

Polarize implies people feel super strongly, with little middle ground.

To the extent that a web questionnaire that size says anything, it says more than three times as many people are satisfied with Creative Cloud than are dissatisfied.

Not polarized. Quite the contrary, it's 77% positive.

Then there's the problem that dissatisfied only gets one slice of the pie. We can see that 57 people (ie, 20%) are satisfied, and 162 (57%) are very satisfied, but we have no idea how many people are dissatisfied vs. very dissatisfied.

EDIT:
I overlooked the most obvious explanation. Not a single person who replied to this survey was very dissatisfied. Not one. At least that's what this pie chart tells me, and if I believe in anything, it's pie.



In any case, not polarized. Not even close.

They're also not telling us what people are satisfied BY and what they're dissatisfied by. Is it "Hey, I love this software" vs "I hate this software," or are any of the dissatisfieds saying, "well, i guess the software works but I HATE that they're forcing me to rent it, and I'm going to say so every chance I get. "

Or did maybe some of those people put themselves in the "merely" satisfied category? "I guess I'm satisfied with the software, which is what you're asking, but I'm not a satisfied CUSTOMER because of this subscription jazz, so I won't say I'm VERY satisfied about ANYTHING."

It's also possible that maybe the reason people ARE satisfied is equally irrelevant to me. Who knows?

I don't know the answer to any of this. You don't. The headline writer DEFINITELY doesn't. The surveyors know some of it, such as what the possible responses were, but the rest is a mystery.


The question beyond any of those is who was being asked. Do ANY of these 284 people do what I do, or care about what I care about?

I'll bet you a real pony that there was no effort made to create a statically model of who Adobe's customers are and therefore what a representative sample might look like. Because with a grown up, professional sample, the results would stay roughly the same with 2.84 million people as with 284.

Otherwise, as is surely the case based on the sloppiness in evidence, the next 284 people might vote nothing like this at all.

So THIS ISN'T ACTUALLY A SAMPLE at all. That word has a meaning, and this ain't that.

So we're positive we don't know anything about these 284 people, we don't know anything about the possible replies they were offered, and we don't know why they replied the way they did.... but we know that a majority is VERY satisfied, over three quarters are SOME degree of satisfied, and less than a quarter is dissatisfied to some extent. ... about something.

I.

Hate.

Web questionnaires.

LOL No kidding. This is one of the worst. I mean, I'm pleased that the favorable responses are so plentiful, but the insights, to the extent we have any, are applicable only to those 284 entirely anonymous, probably random people. We can't make any general observations about how this might apply to any other groups of people of any size.

There are some actual facts later in the article, and they're interesting. Maybe talk about those. LOL

And again David, genuine thanks for bringing this to our attention. People who are less unhinged than me well find plenty to talk about here, and indeed, almost anyone is more hinged than I am.

*drops mic*

LOL Carry on.


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David Miller
Re: CNET survey results...
on Dec 19, 2014 at 2:41:14 pm

Hi, Tim.....

Don't mince words....tell us what you REALLY think! ;)

Yup....it was a pretty small turnout. It appears that they only left the survey up for about 5 days. Maybe they should have left it up longer so that more people could have discovered it and responded? Who knows?

Of course, while it would have meant a larger sample, there's still the bug-a-boo of the types of questions that were asked and what the data that was gathered actually means.

Anyway, I think what little was there just basically confirmed what was already known....of those who replied who already have CC, 77% of them liked it.

Of those who still use CS, 95% of them said they had no plans to move to CC. In that group, those CS users are still at loggerheads with Adobe's decision.

It would be nice if a comprehensive survey that was scientific in nature could be done. That might give a more complete picture of how things are. On the other hand, it might just end up confirming what this little survey found.

And the beat goes on.

- David


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Andrew Kimery
Re: CNET survey results...
on Dec 20, 2014 at 12:33:58 am

[David Miller] "Yup....it was a pretty small turnout. It appears that they only left the survey up for about 5 days. Maybe they should have left it up longer so that more people could have discovered it and responded? Who knows?
"


Even with a bigger turnout you'd still have a problem with selection bias. It's the quality of the sample, not the quantity. I think for national political polls they can hit +/-3 percent accuracy and only poll 1000 people.

I'm always reminded of the Ann Landers poll years ago where she asked her readers if they had it to do over again, would they have kids. 10,000 people responded and something like 70% said that they regret having kids and would remain childless if they could hit the 'do over' button. This caused a stir but it soon came to light how flawed the poll was. Later a scientific poll was conducted and it found that 90-95% of parents *would* have kids again if they could hit the do over button.

From 70% "no" to 90% "yes" is really, really big difference. ;)


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Tim Wilson
Re: CNET survey results...
on Dec 22, 2014 at 6:35:24 am

[Andrew Kimery] " It's the quality of the sample, not the quantity."

And again, I need to underscore, the people who randomly stumble across what appears to be a single question posted for a very short time is NOT A SAMPLE.

Not to start my rant again, but this kind of thing is the opposite of information. If people accept it as if it WERE information, they stop looking for anything resembling reality.

[Andrew Kimery] "From 70% "no" to 90% "yes" is really, really big difference. ;)
"


Exactly.

That said, David, I think you're right, that it's striking that 77% of people expressed some degree of satisfaction. With internet postings of this variety, "no" tends to be spoken much more emphatically than "yes." Even though I have precisely ZERO confidence in the reliability of the outcome, outcome, I like it a whole, whole, lot because it confirms what I already thought. LOL Most people are mostly happy, and the largest group of people by far, more than all other categories combined, are VERY satisfied.

Exactly like I thought. My beliefs confirmed, we can now all go about our day. LOL

Thanks again!


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