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John Davidson
How do you think this would have flied if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 13, 2013 at 10:09:01 pm

What do you guys think the reaction would have been if this CC thing had been announced at NAB? How many folks had made the decision to move to Premiere et al based off what they saw at NAB, only to have to rethink their decision less than a month later? Do you think people feel a little hoodwinked?

John Davidson | President / Creative Director | Magic Feather Inc.


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Chris Harlan
Re: How do you think this would have flied if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 13, 2013 at 10:34:46 pm

[John Davidson] "What do you guys think the reaction would have been if this CC thing had been announced at NAB? How many folks had made the decision to move to Premiere et al based of what they saw at NAB, only to have to rethink their decision less than a month later? Do you think people feel a little hoodwinked?
"


I think most of the NAB market is CC friendly. The ability to expand and contract your number of seats at will, along with the industry standard of extensive service contracts, probably means that the majority of NAB shoppers were going Cloud anyway, and were also further interested in Anywhere. NAB buyers are also relatively slow to adapt, so an announcement a month later might give pause, because of the apparent disorganization, but probably isn't a reason to feel hoodwinked.

For individuals cruising around the exhibits that might be different. Since I'm one of them, I'll say that I certainly don't feel hoodwinked or defrauded in any way. I'm feeling a bit let down that Adobe couldn't see this mess coming, and it has made me a bit uncertain about what is going on in their boardroom. I'm trying to keep an open mind and not get caught up in either blind-loyalty brand adherence or teeth-gnashing anti-corpratism. I've gotten a CC license, and though I still have a little time to return it, I will most likely hold on to it for the next year. I don't know that the membership model is wrong; I don't know that it is right. I have to see and parse more before I can decide that for myself.

I will keep my eyes open, though.


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Tim Kolb
Re: How do you think this would have flied if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 13, 2013 at 11:12:04 pm

[Chris Harlan] "I'm feeling a bit let down that Adobe couldn't see this mess coming, and it has made me a bit uncertain about what is going on in their boardroom."

I think whether the mess is what Adobe was expecting or not is yet to be determined. They haven't exactly been back-pedaling like crazy as of yet.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Chris Harlan
Re: How do you think this would have flied if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 13, 2013 at 11:32:52 pm

[Tim Kolb] " think whether the mess is what Adobe was expecting or not is yet to be determined. They haven't exactly been back-pedaling like crazy as of yet.
"


True. No one knows what this mess is yet. Or if, three months from now, it will remembered as anything more than a badly-place, overly-high speed bump.

I don't think they will back pedal, btw. Not for a while at least. This things got corporate-size momentum, and even if their are numerous people on board who want to turn the ship around, it will take some time and will to do.


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Greg Andonian
Re: How do you think this would have flied if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 12:13:30 am

[Chris Harlan] I don't think they will back pedal, btw. Not for a while at least. This things got corporate-size momentum, and even if their are numerous people on board who want to turn the ship around, it will take some time and will to do.

Things might start to change when the new versions get here, though. Everyone who is on Creative Cloud right now with CS6 has the ability to also buy a perpetual license if they want, so they have far more peace of mind than the ones who move to the CC versions. Yes, you can go back to CS6 in some cases- but that isn't going to be perfect, especially when significant new features come into play- like Cinema 4D in AE.

______________________________________________
"Up until here, we still have enough track to stop the locomotive before it plunges into the ravine... But after this windmill it's the future or bust."


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Jim Cunningham
Re: How do you think this would have flied if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 13, 2013 at 11:16:06 pm

Actually, at the NAB the possibility of an only CC did come up often at the Adobe booths and response was both yes there would be perpetual, no there wasn't going to be perpetual or talk to that guy over there. On Thursday, I was under the impression that there was going to be a perpetual license. So, I was most surprised/disappointed to learn otherwise.

The whole thing was most confusing and very poorly handled! In retrospect it seems that the Adobe workers either did not want to tell people the facts, were being given incomplete/inaccurate info, or the decision had not yet been made.



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Chris Harlan
Re: How do you think this would have flied if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 13, 2013 at 11:27:10 pm

[Jim Cunningham] "Actually, at the NAB the possibility of an only CC did come up often at the Adobe booths and response was both yes there would be perpetual, no there wasn't going to be perpetual or talk to that guy over there."

Yes, that was my experience as well. And I also came away believing that perpetual licenses were happening.


[Jim Cunningham] "The whole thing was most confusing and very poorly handled! In retrospect it seems that the Adobe workers either did not want to tell people the facts, were being given incomplete/inaccurate info, or the decision had not yet been made.
"


I think that some of the people there knew the facts, but couldn't talk about them, other than "not CS 7, but Next," and some of the people didn't know them and made assumptions based Adobe's past history.

The question here was "do you feel hoodwinked?" And, I don't. I just think it was a communication cluster fork, and that nothing more should be read into it. It reminds me of the year that people at the Avid booth were telling folks that Avid was done with Apple, and would be PC only.

I would be interested to know if it was still up in the air at the time of NAB.


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Tim Kolb
Re: How do you think this would have flied if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 1:56:20 am

[Chris Harlan] "I just think it was a communication cluster fork, and that nothing more should be read into it."

Now THAT I will agree with.

Several people who were at NAB have said when they asked the question directly about whether or not there would be perpetual licenses, their impression was that they were answered in the affirmative...if that proves to be the case, then Adobe deserves a bit of a slap for that. No question.

All the specific individual libertarian issues and scandal-mongering aside, 90% of this chaos is due to the feeling this was "sprung" on users without at least a product cycle warning...and while I think that judging motivations is unproductive and arbitrary, you can judge execution...and it was lousy IMO.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Brandon Cordy
Re: How do you think this would have flied if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 13, 2013 at 11:25:13 pm

I actually signed up for CC on the NAB show floor (I was going to sign up at about Christmastime, but put it off), so I wouldn't've been bothered either way.

I may be the odd person that will use 80% of those apps on a regular-enough basis (and open all of them except Flash Builder), because I do print and web design as well.


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Kevin Monahan
Re: How do you think this would have flied if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 13, 2013 at 11:43:49 pm

[Brandon Cordy] "I actually signed up for CC on the NAB show floor"

Hi Brandon,
Yes, you weren't alone. I worked the sales booth at NAB and we had a lot of sign-ups.

Kevin

Kevin Monahan
Social Support Lead
Adobe After Effects
Adobe Premiere Pro
Adobe Systems, Inc.
Follow Me on Twitter!


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Greg Andonian
Re: How do you think this would have flied if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 12:29:05 am

[Kevin Monahan] I worked the sales booth at NAB and we had a lot of sign-ups.

...But they didn't know perpetual licenses were being discontinued, did they?

______________________________________________
"Up until here, we still have enough track to stop the locomotive before it plunges into the ravine... But after this windmill it's the future or bust."


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Brandon Cordy
Re: How do you think this would have flied if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 3:16:37 am

I can only speak for myself, but it didn't matter to me. If for whatever reason one day in the future I decided not to renew, I'd deal with it.

I can't say I didn't see it coming, however - CC-only app features was a significant clue. I just thought it would take until 2014 or 2015.


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Chris Pettit
Re: How do you think this would have flied if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 4:00:38 am

Exactly. Mandatory is different from optional.


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Kevin Monahan
Re: How do you think this would have flied if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 8:15:46 am

[Greg Andonian] "...But they didn't know perpetual licenses were being discontinued, did they?"

We didn't announce much more than sneaks of our new features and the ability to join the Creative Cloud to get those features.

Kevin Monahan
Social Support Lead
Adobe After Effects
Adobe Premiere Pro
Adobe Systems, Inc.
Follow Me on Twitter!


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Dave LaRonde
Re: How do you think this would have FLOWN if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 2:24:39 pm

What if Adobe announced the new model at NAB? There were certainly many people who use Adobe products in attendance, but they weren't EXCLUSIVELY in attendance.

Bear in mind that the "B" in NAB stands for "Broadcasters". Of course, the show floor is appealing to far more groups than that, and that's my point: there are one-man shops, huge edit & post companies, corporate communications in-house production personnel, ad agency production people, program production companies, program distributors... and yes, engineers and management from networks, broadcast groups and stations. It's a diverse aggregation of hardware/software interests. Groups on vastly different capital purchase schedules.

I believe that if Adobe had announced at NAB, some of these people would have thought to themselves, "Thank you for the heads-up, Adobe. I think we'll just hold off our planned purchases at the moment and reevaluate our initial plans for upgrading."

A LOT of these groups have no emotional attachment to Adobe whatsoever. The overriding question is what will get the job done most efficiently in their existing and planned physical plants. Premiere Pro? Edius? Vegas? Does EVERY editing seat in house need access to every bit of Adobe software just to get Premiere Pro & AE? Can we go with a one or two, and just BUY NLE software for the others?

Moreover, a lot of these groups could care less about software integration. For example, if you have a big TV news department -- call it a dozen edit stations -- the vast majority of them are dedicated to receiving footage at 5:43 PM and getting it on the air by 6:07 PM. I assure you: there is NOTHING fancy about what they do. Anything that looks even remotely-fancy was 1) pre-produced, 2) contains an alpha channel created on 3) one of a tiny handful of machines well in advance because that's all you need to make it work in your system.

Adobe would have sold far fewer CS6 packages than it did, I think.

By making the new model announcement at Adobe MAX, they're presenting to the faithful. People who have an emotional investment in Adobe products. People who want to continue using Adobe products. People who never had access to every Adobe product, and now salivate at the possibility. It is a far less fickle crowd than that NAB bunch, I bet. I imagine the official announcement presentation made for very fine theater, and was met by applause and cheering, and emotion-charged signups. At NAB, I think there would have been more thoughtful uh-huhs and a sudden drop in anticipated purchases.

I view the no-announce policy at NAB as Adobe's last chance to cash in on software sales under the current model. It would have been informative to listen to a prospect at Adobe's NAB booth. Here's an imagined exchange:

PROSPECT: "Now, this CS 6 is due for an upgrade pretty soon, I bet. What happens if I buy it now, and you release CS 7 in a month or so?"

VENDOR: "I can't comment on what we're about to do. You understand why that's so until we announce. But I can tell you this: for every Creative Suite version sold late in the version cycle, we've always allowed purchasers to upgrade for free." Wink, wink. Nudge, nudge.

Well, it's no longer Creative Suite, but Creative Cloud. And it won't be a purchase, it'll be a rental. No lie was told.

Dave LaRonde
Former Sr. Promotion Producer
KCRG-TV (ABC) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Chris Harlan
Re: How do you think this would have FLOWN if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 8:36:26 pm

[Dave LaRonde] "I view the no-announce policy at NAB as Adobe's last chance to cash in on software sales under the current model. It would have been informative to listen to a prospect at Adobe's NAB booth. Here's an imagined exchange:

PROSPECT: "Now, this CS 6 is due for an upgrade pretty soon, I bet. What happens if I buy it now, and you release CS 7 in a month or so?"

VENDOR: "I can't comment on what we're about to do. You understand why that's so until we announce. But I can tell you this: for every Creative Suite version sold late in the version cycle, we've always allowed purchasers to upgrade for free." Wink, wink. Nudge, nudge.
"


Dave, I was around the Adobe booth a lot at NAB, and I never heard anybody do that. The focus was on "Next," "CC," and "Anywhere." This conversation exists in your imagination an nowhere else. The whole vibe you are talking about just was not going on there. Really.


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Dave LaRonde
Re: How do you think this would have FLOWN if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 9:21:02 pm

So NOBODY asked, "Can I buy CS Next now?" Really?

And the folks in the Adobe booth just said nothing beyond, "I can't divulge the release date," not correcting the mistake in terminology, but which implies that it could be purchased... based on the current model?

That didn't happen?

Dave LaRonde
Former Sr. Promotion Producer
KCRG-TV (ABC) Cedar Rapids, IA


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John Davidson
Re: How do you think this would have FLOWN if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 9:32:44 pm

I honestly wasn't around the Adobe booth much - the whole visit was just essentially me saying Hi to a few friends and then running from one end of that giant place to another.

I just asked the question because it did seem a little bait and switch-ish. Perhaps Adobe thought this decision would overwhelm the conversation about what features were added in Next. From a marketing standpoint I can understand, but I wonder if it wouldn't have been better to just be up front about it in the beginning and hope that the new features would override the negatives some people have about CC. I would imagine there was a pretty lively debate within Adobe about that.

John Davidson | President / Creative Director | Magic Feather Inc.


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Chris Harlan
Re: How do you think this would have FLOWN if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 9:48:48 pm

[John Davidson] "I honestly wasn't around the Adobe booth much - the whole visit was just essentially me saying Hi to a few friends and then running from one end of that giant place to another.

I just asked the question because it did seem a little bait and switch-ish. Perhaps Adobe thought this decision would overwhelm the conversation about what features were added in Next. From a marketing standpoint I can understand, but I wonder if it wouldn't have been better to just be up front about it in the beginning and hope that the new features would override the negatives some people have about CC. I would imagine there was a pretty lively debate within Adobe about that.
"


I don't know if they had even decided that they were going to do it at that point. My gut says it was still an internal debate, maybe even an intense fight at higher levels inside the company. Frankly, I think the accusation of bait and switch is ridiculous. That is not what I saw going on there. And, what would they have to gain? It is so grotesquely short sighted, that I just don't see it. Of course, the mob is so revved up at this point, that what actually happened probably doesn't matter anymore.


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John Davidson
Re: How do you think this would have FLOWN if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 10:01:48 pm

[Chris Harlan] "I don't know if they had even decided that they were going to do it at that point."

I respectfully disagree. I think this decision had been made probably 2 years ago when CC was being planned. I don't think you'd invest in this kind of complex system and then decide to commit fully to it on a whim. There would need to be agreements with box/disc manufacturers and long term marketing strategy that would have to be taken into account.

I think by bait I mean allowing NAB attendees and the whole internet to assume that past performance would be an indicator of future outcomes without clarifying or explaining what was going to happen. By that logic, on the executive level it probably was probably anticipated far in advance that this would be a somewhat unpopular decision. Hence, they let the other shoe drop after all the big fanfare and goodwill they got at NAB.

John Davidson | President / Creative Director | Magic Feather Inc.


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Tim Kolb
Re: How do you think this would have FLOWN if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 10:28:02 pm

[John Davidson] "By that logic, on the executive level it probably was probably anticipated far in advance that this would be a somewhat unpopular decision. Hence, they let the other shoe drop after all the big fanfare and goodwill they got at NAB."

I'm sure nobody at Adobe was under the delusion that a change like this would have the offices in San Jose overflowing with gift-wrapped chocolates.

But remember that the video piece of the business is only a part...NAB doesn't cover publishing, web design, etc...

It was a matter of not making the announcement in a daily flurry of announcements at NAB so it got lost...MAX is Adobe's show, and it addresses all of Adobe's customers, not just video...not just print/web.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Chris Harlan
Re: How do you think this would have FLOWN if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 11:00:59 pm

[John Davidson] "I think this decision had been made probably 2 years ago when CC was being planned."

Well, I can see them wanting that, but I can't see them being certain about it. And even if it they were, I doubt that they picked now as the date two years ago. Personally, while I expected that Cloud would eventually trump, I think they would have been wise to wait a few more iterations.

[John Davidson] "I don't think you'd invest in this kind of complex system and then decide to commit fully to it on a whim. There would need to be agreements with box/disc manufacturers and long term marketing strategy that would have to be taken into account."

I don't think it was a whim. I think it was a strong desire and direction that they seriously hoped would pan out. As for box/disc, I'm pretty sure that they knew that was going to go away, whatever they did. My best guess--knowing nothing at all of inside politics at Adobe--is that Cloud conversion accelerated in Nov/Dec as part of the ValueAct deal (ValueAct bought something like 7% of Adobe's stock) that got ValueAct a seat on the board. Sure, CC friendly board members were coming in about this time last year, as well (Amy Banse, of Comcast Ventures, for instance, probably thinks good things about subscription services), but my uninformed guess is that the debate over the final demise of the perpetual license started at the beginning of this year or at the end of the last.

[John Davidson] "I think by bait I mean allowing NAB attendees and the whole internet to assume that past performance would be an indicator of future outcomes without clarifying or explaining what was going to happen. By that logic, on the executive level it probably was probably anticipated far in advance that this would be a somewhat unpopular decision. Hence, they let the other shoe drop after all the big fanfare and goodwill they got at NAB.
"


I think as Tim points out, we see this too directly through our own eyes as TV folk. We are really a secondary or tertiary market for them. NAB is our huge event, but for them it is another trade show. There were what? Three weeks between NAB and MAX? But, hey this is all conjecture, and I really don't know.


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Tim Kolb
Re: How do you think this would have FLOWN if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 9:40:08 pm

[Dave LaRonde] "And the folks in the Adobe booth just said nothing beyond, "I can't divulge the release date," not correcting the mistake in terminology, but which implies that it could be purchased... based on the current model?"

I've followed some of this up with those who KNOW...and apparently the marching orders on what COULD be disclosed and what could NOT be said was very clear...

I was in the AJA booth running 4K in Premiere Pro CC and we were carefully instructed what could be said, and anything alluding to anything "Creative Suite" or "CS7" was strictly verboten. Strictly "Premiere Pro next"

We didn't know that this was the end game...but by the same token, I'm not shocked based on how they were handling it. This is the direction they've been headed for a couple years.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Dave LaRonde
Re: How do you think this would have FLOWN if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 9:49:11 pm

[Tim Kolb] "...I was in the AJA booth running 4K in Premiere Pro CC and we were carefully instructed what could be said, and anything alluding to anything "Creative Suite" or "CS7" was strictly verboten. Strictly "Premiere Pro next""

Ah. From the horse's mouth, so to speak. Glad to know how they handled it. My imagination and I stand corrected.



[Tim Kolb] " I'm not shocked based on how they were handling it. This is the direction they've been headed for a couple years."

Over the past couple of years I often thought, "Jeez, why such an emphasis on the cloud?" and that's as far as it went. So I WAS shocked.

Dave LaRonde
Former Sr. Promotion Producer
KCRG-TV (ABC) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Tim Kolb
Re: How do you think this would have FLOWN if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 10:02:40 pm

[Dave LaRonde] "Ah. From the horse's mouth, so to speak. Glad to know how they handled it. My imagination and I stand corrected."

I can't vouch for every person in the Adobe both, but I can say that it was not a matter casually handled...

Maybe someone said, or didn't say something that meant something to you...it's hard to say. If you weren't expecting the subscription move at some near point, assumptions based on past cycles take over. It's understandable.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Dave LaRonde
Re: How do you think this would have FLOWN if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 15, 2013 at 2:28:14 pm

[Tim Kolb] " If you weren't expecting the subscription move at some near point, assumptions based on past cycles take over. It's understandable."

Yes, and the cynic in me says that Adobe may have been counting on that.

Caveat Emptor... or Caveat Renter, I suppose.

Dave LaRonde
Former Sr. Promotion Producer
KCRG-TV (ABC) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Tim Kolb
Re: How do you think this would have FLOWN if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 15, 2013 at 2:37:07 pm

[Dave LaRonde] "[Tim Kolb] " If you weren't expecting the subscription move at some near point, assumptions based on past cycles take over. It's understandable."

Yes, and the cynic in me says that Adobe may have been counting on that."


Well...they can't disclose unannounced plans, so they can't say much about what is in store, but by the same token they can't say what they won't do if someone doesn't directly ask as that would be kind of the same issue...

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Chris Harlan
Re: How do you think this would have FLOWN if it had been announced at NAB?
on May 14, 2013 at 9:59:33 pm

[Dave LaRonde] "So NOBODY asked, "Can I buy CS Next now?" Really?

And the folks in the Adobe booth just said nothing beyond, "I can't divulge the release date," not correcting the mistake in terminology, but which implies that it could be purchased... based on the current model?

That didn't happen?"


I'm having trouble deciphering that, Dave. I'm sure many people asked that. I don't understand what that means to you.

FWIW, I do not think bait and switch was happening in the least. I think there were some secrets and a few mishandled things. You've got ever right to be mad at the company if you want to be. At the same time, I feel obliged to say something when I see a non-event being turned into evidence of chicanery. At this point, the mob is getting so angry that anything I say won't matter, so maybe I should just shut up and get out of the way.


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