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Chris Pettit
So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 2:15:09 am

http://blogs.adobe.com/adobecare/

"We are currently investigating an issue with Adobe login services that is preventing users from being able to log in to the Creative Cloud and Adobe websites and services. Desktop applications are not impacted, although Creative Cloud services used by those applications may not be available."

"We will provide an update no later than 6:30 PM PST."

"[UPDATE 6:30 PM PST] We continue to work to restore Adobe login services. We are in the process of bringing additional service capacity online. We do not currently have an ETA for resolution. We will provide the next update here no later than 7:30 PM PST."


I feel sorry for the guys responsible for dealing with this kind of technical and PR trouble at Adobe, I really do. But the question remains: Adobe declares itself to be a services related company, essentially overnight, and everyone is supposed to simply believe it, right?

I simply don't buy it. No true value add, not yet anyway. Just a lot of pain and a lot of monthly payments with no end.


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Chris Pettit
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 2:50:52 am

We will provide the next update here no later than 6:30 PM PST.
We will provide the next update here no later than 7:30 PM PST.
We will provide the next update here no later than 8:30 PM PST.


There is simply no way I'm turning my business over to this kind of risk. Like everyone else, I'm under deadline pressure right now, but using CS6 thankfully.

I know that there are conditional circumstances involved here, and yes "the desktop apps still work" (which BTW is an argument for why nothing has actually changed) but I have to say at this point that in my opinion, the Adobe experiment has at least partly failed. Even people who previously totally believed in this are starting to question it. That's plainly evident on their support and FB sites.

Really, isn't it time for Adobe to try and involve the entire community in a discussion about how to move forward instead of continuing to ignore large portions of thier former customers base and then make lame apologies for those who choose to believe?


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Richard Herd
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 4:51:42 pm

[Chris Pettit] "the Adobe experiment has at least partly failed."

Not at $72/share. ;)


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Chris Pettit
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 5:14:05 pm

yeah, not referring to stock price, I meant functional reliability and the "transformation" into a service company.

But in the end, stock price may be all they care about. We'll see


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Gary Huff
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 5:29:47 pm

[Chris Pettit] "But in the end, stock price may be all they care about. "

Why wouldn't they?


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Chris Pettit
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 5:35:06 pm

[Gary Huff] "[Chris Pettit] "But in the end, stock price may be all they care about. "

Why wouldn't they?"


Lehman Brothers


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Tim Kolb
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 5:57:15 pm

[Chris Pettit] "Why wouldn't they?"

Lehman Brothers"


Hardly comparable... Lehman Brothers created or manufactured nothing, owned no patents or intellectual property outside of what derivatives they were buying/selling at what time.

Adobe has customers, they have a product that is selling well, and their stock price is rising because of it.

Lots of areas where they could improve in their customer engagement, but from a business standpoint, they only need to be good enough to keep users from really looking seriously elsewhere.

...based on how many CS6 users are still holding out hope that something will change after the second major drop of CC software, I'd say their bet was solid.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Gary Huff
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 6:01:58 pm

[Tim Kolb] "Hardly comparable"

Non-comparable analogies is the modus operandi of certain posters around here.


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Chris Pettit
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 7:23:25 pm

[Tim Kolb] "Hardly comparable... Lehman Brothers created or manufactured nothing, owned no patents or intellectual property outside of what derivatives they were buying/selling at what time."

Actually I think it's a great comparison, in a broad sense. When large corporate entities behave as if the only thing that matters is profits and share price, they often tend to act contrary to the best interests of their own customers, the industries they operate in, economies broadly and the environment, just to list a few potential impacts. They can affect regulatory policy disproportionally, they wield too much political influence, and they begin to leverage controls they possess over the market due more to their size instead of simply competing to have better products and services. They can become anti-competitive.

Adobe is a completely different company than Lehman, in a completely different industry, with a far smaller and different type of impact. But the comparison stands. They are at least partly enjoying success with CC because they own the products that have become the standard, with formats that are standard, and they are closing off non-subscription access to those formats by rapidly and intentionally shutting down backwards compatibility. A lot of what Adobe has become with CC was acquired by buying out smaller competitors (Macromedia) and dominating the standards, not because everyone loves renting software. Adobes decisions are affecting millions of users, good and bad. A lot of people believe that companies with that level of influence have more responsibility than just to their shareholders, and they have an obligation to listen to their own customers. Adobe clearly does not believe that to be the case. The financial industry exhibited the same hubris prior to 2007 as well.

The idea that corporations only obligation is to their share price is abhorrent. That type of thinking and actions is exactly how the worlds economy almost plunged into a depression, in the case of the large Investment banks. So Adobe has no chance of having that wide spread of an impact of Lehman, agreed, naturally.

But the comparison is still valid. They don't live in a vacuum.


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Tim Kolb
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 7:54:16 pm

[Chris Pettit] "Adobes decisions are affecting millions of users, good and bad. A lot of people believe that companies with that level of influence have more responsibility than just to their shareholders, "

It's all the same responsibility. To be responsible to your shareholders, you HAVE to be responsive to your customers because if customers leave, the shareholders aren't served either.

The key is, if the organization in the middle also has to look out for itself...and just like those of us who charge for our production services, we all charge what the market will bear. When we offer something our competitors do not, we charge for that.

Lehman and others went under from making very short-term moves that committed them to investment positions that weren't sustainable in the eyes of any economist who was looking forward more than 4 or 5 quarters...but for the moment they were raking it in...and not even looking after their own long-term well being as a business.

At the moment, the stock price is rewarding Adobe as their profits decline...because investors see a company trying to re-think the business model for the long-term instead of simply continue in the same old path. When a company builds its product portfolio to dominate a market, it doesn't do so to make LESS money...I certainly wouldn't with my business.

Again, this is simply not something that can broken down into good/evil or greedy/charitable...it's a move that doesn't make some customers happy...but how many will leave or never buy into it? Adobe is betting that there won't be as many as will buy into it. Businesses make decisions like that every day whether it Mom and Pap's Bakery raising the price of Boston Cream and discontinuing Krullers or the Cable Company raising rates for internet (we could talk about evil there of course) or Chrysler discontinuing Plymouth.

It's fine not to like it...but it's a waste of energy to continue to wish some sort of misfortune on the company and its stockholders and to constantly re-rationalize why it's all going bad for Adobe.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Richard Herd
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 17, 2014 at 4:15:31 pm

Here's a thing, just for fun:

Let's suppose you used the price of CS6 as an investment in NASDAQ: ADBE on 8/19/2003 (the 52 week low) and let's suppose you sold that on 6/18/2014 (the 52-week high), (not counting interest accrued), you pay for 6.7 years of Creative Cloud.

$2500 @ $44.89/share is 55 shares sold at $73.08 share. Cash of $4069 at $50/month for CC is 81 months of CC. A more fancy person than me can figure a scheme where the monthly rental goes instead to NASDAQ:ADBE and then cash out every so often is banked as CC subscription.

Why not make this much more straightforward Adobe? All stock holders should receive complimentary Creative Cloud subscription.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 17, 2014 at 6:23:01 pm

thats something to think about


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Richard Herd
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 17, 2014 at 6:49:04 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "thats something to think about"

I look forward to reading your thoughts on the topic.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 6:01:02 pm
Last Edited By Ricardo Marty on Jul 15, 2014 at 6:06:16 pm

the share prices meen nothing to success its basically a loan that must be repaid however it meens a lot to the adobe executives that have cashed in. lots of therr stocks. adobe is still losing money and not making enough.

ricardo marty


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Ricardo Marty
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 3:23:07 am

we still got to wait till q4 2016. hopefully using resolve.

your turn gary.

ricardo marty


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Tim Kolb
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 5:24:31 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "we still got to wait till q4 2016. hopefully using resolve."

6 quarters from now, Resolve certainly won't be the only product to evolve...and if it does sufficiently, why would somebody who needs Photoshop and Illustrator, Audition and After Effects, buy Resolve Edit (or whatever it will be called) to replace Premiere Pro and SpeedGrade alone?

Anyone who wants a low/no cost editing system can move to Lightworks right now...I think the "pro" version (supports more codecs) costs 60.00/year. It's a far more mature editing system than Resolve will be for some time...and it will work just fine with Resolve in your workflow if that's what you want.

I think that each of us can decide whether or not we like the subscription arrangement, and therefore whether continuing with Adobe software makes sense for our circumstances, but to continue to try to pretend that this is something that will somehow bite Adobe in the backside in the sense of plummeting sales in some future time frame due to some single piece of software developing to challenge some small fraction of the suite is just becoming absurd.

Adobe gambled a bit...it appears they made the right move from a business standpoint.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Gary Huff
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 5:29:17 pm

[Tim Kolb] "Anyone who wants a low/no cost editing system can move to Lightworks right now."

Or Pixelmator or iDraw or any number of things. But for some reason, they don't, though they keep talking like they are going to...one day.


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Tim Kolb
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 5:42:02 pm

[Gary Huff] "Or Pixelmator or iDraw or any number of things. But for some reason, they don't, though they keep talking like they are going to...one day."

That is the rub. Adobe has taken a page from Microsoft Office, prior to the existence of Open Office...you could replace any piece of MS Ofc with a point application that could do a better job, but you'd still have to buy the Office grouping for the rest of it...so you don't bother.

Video professionals' perception is that they could install Corel Draw, HitFilm, and Lightworks and thumb their nose at the subscription arrangement...and many probably could get their work done that way certainly.

But it's switching from the known to the unknown...and certainly giving up some functions (even as one might gain others) that are nice to have.

I do think Adobe had a pretty good handle on what sort of customer retention they'd have after the switch...maybe they were even conservative.

Plenty of perfectly valid reservations to the arrangement out there...but I think that this changeover has maybe shown that Adobe has more leverage with the breadth of the product line than any one competitor may be able to overcome.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Paul Neumann
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 5:55:41 pm

TimK with all his making sense and stuff like that.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 6:25:11 pm

as you saud in 6 querters somehing might show up and if its good enough adobe cc will suffer and so will all the stock holders.

ricardo marty

ps i hope that cc only and all subscription base offerings fail.


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Tim Kolb
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 6:39:31 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "as you saud in 6 querters somehing might show up and if its good enough adobe cc will suffer and so will all the stock holders."

What I said is that Resolve won't be the only thing evolving...do you think Adobe will be putting development on 18 month hiatus?

I don't see a company in my crystal ball that can truly threaten Adobe, even if you only attack one segment (i.e. just print or just video, etc.)


[Ricardo Marty] "ps i hope that cc only and all subscription base offerings fail."

LOL...yeah I think we all get that from your posts, but as much as I can't say I'm comfortable with subscription software any more than anyone else is, I think that ship has sailed.

(...and I think the software industry has noted the distinct lack of misfortune suffered by Adobe through this changeover...I suspect we're all in for big changes in software costs very soon.)

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Ricardo Marty
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 6:44:13 pm

dont know how you can say that has succeded when all indicator point toward a struggle at best.


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Tim Wilson
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 7:54:59 pm

In personal observation mode, NOT official mode:

[Ricardo Marty] "dont know how you can say that has succeded when all indicator point toward a struggle at best.
"


NO indicators point to struggle. NONE. That is, in context, "struggle" or not means financially, and their numbers released last month were fantastic:

  • Revenue of $1.07 billion, above the high end of its targeted range of $1.00 billion to $1.05 billion.
  • Digital Media ARR grew by $227 million to a quarter-ending total of $1.38 billion. Total Digital Media revenue of $692 million.
  • Now up to 2,308,000 paid Creative Cloud subscriptions, an increase of 464,000 in 3 months
  • Overall Creative ARR total of $1.2 billion, an increase of $208 million quarter-over-quarter
  • A record quarter for the company in many areas of its finances, highly unusual for a Q2 at any company
  • Q3 of FY14 targeting a revenue range of $975 million to $1.25 billion


What this means for the end of the year:

We are targeting Digital Media ARR to grow sequentially in Q4 to a total of $1.925 billion exiting the year – an increase over our prior annual target of $1.85 billion.

We expect to add approximately 1 million net new Creative Cloud subscriptions in the second half of the year, with sequential growth in each quarter.

This means we expect to achieve approximately 3.3 million Creative Cloud subscriptions by year-end, which is 300 thousand higher than our target of approximately 3 million that we gave entering the year



[Chris Pettit] "A lot of people believe that companies with that level of influence have more responsibility than just to their shareholders, and they have an obligation to listen to their own customers. Adobe clearly does not believe that to be the case."

I agree that there is a big difference between people paying for something and people being HAPPY about HAVING to pay for something.

BUT, the fact that Adobe's numbers are moving so much more quickly ahead of projection -- as much as 30% ahead of projection -- suggests to me that the friction is less than described in this forum and elsewhere.

As is often observed around here, CS 6 will be working fine for a while longer. There's not a compelling "I have to switch to CC now or else" dynamic pushing this. The people driving Adobe's numbers are in fact customers and ONLY customers, and they're doing it even though by and large they don't yet HAVE to.

The thing about stock price is that it only reflects the FEELING of investors. Profitability reflects management of expenses even more than it reflects income.

The income itself, though. That ENTIRELY reflects people's ACTIONS. What are people DOING about Adobe? What ACTIONS are they taking? The ACTION, what they're DOING, is giving Adobe more money than Adobe predicted, and MORE of them are doing it than Adobe predicted.

None of which has anything to do with your point about the relationship in the other direction, Chris. Every company has responsibilities that extend past the money. I'm agreeing with you on that point, 100%.

But the best tool to sift real-world signal from online noise is the top line. NOT the bottom line. NOT the stock price. Just the very simple numbers: are more people doing business with us, or fewer? Are they giving us more money, or are they giving us less?

If the number of people paying you, and the amount they're paying you, is going up, it's not unreasonable to take that as a louder ratification of your plans than the loudness of discontent on the web -- especially forums like this that are pretty much solely designed to focus and amplify it. Flipping for a moment into official mode, we're happy to do that, but flipping back to personal observation mode, there HAS to be a way to sift signal from noise, and, respectfully as I once again agree with much of your point, I'm not sure what you think is a better way to sift signal from noise than watching actual behavior.

NOT profits. NOT stock price. Behavior.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 8:23:04 pm

when cc started they forcasted 4 million subscribers most on 49.95 per month other at enterprize pricing starting at 185.00 per month.

reality in 2014 about a third of cc is photoshop at 9.95 the rest is a mix 20 % to 40% off and the standard prices.

so do you thonk they are making money on cc? they might be making the number if subscribers but not at the price they contemplated.

they might even be making a ton of money but its not all from cc.

the street newsletter clearly states that while they recommend adobe as a buy adobe still is losing money and not making enough.

so if you think its been a success i dont agree and the facts dont either.

however its been great for the wall street fims and some adobe executives.

and contrary to others in fact most cc cheerleaders i just want the subscription only product to change and include perpetual licences also.

and i dont want a future where you dont own the tools of your trade or the results of your work.

ricardo marty


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Tim Kolb
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 16, 2014 at 5:26:30 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "i dont want a future where you dont own the tools of your trade or the results of your work."

Now I will say that THAT is hard to argue with, no matter what software you use, or how much more cost-effective the rental might be month-on-month or year-on-year...etc.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 9:48:49 pm

[Tim Wilson] "NOT profits. NOT stock price. Behavior."

Tim,

While I agree in general with what you've written, I think you're coming close to the idea that the only behavior that counts is spending money.

(aka "Buy it or shut up." "Vote with your wallet." etc.)

There are plenty of things that can be done that don't involve buying and one of those things is exemplified in this forum.

Whether you think it's signal or noise is up for debate.

Franz.


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Tim Wilson
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 10:33:42 pm

[Franz Bieberkopf] " I think you're coming close to the idea that the only behavior that counts is spending money."

Yes, coming close, but not entirely.

I should have been clearer in posing this as a question: what behavior counts MORE than that? How else would you suggest that Adobe separate the signal from the noise?

When you have a customer base as large as Adobe's the tools for that are necessarily blunt. You have to answer questions on the scale of millions of users and billions of dollars every quarter.

Imagine that you're sitting in a conference room at Adobe, with a blank whiteboard in front of you, You've got a roomful of suits staring at you, WANTING you to dazzle them. They've hired you because they believe you know the customer base, and NONE of them want to make a mistake. It will cost the company billions and cost them their jobs to get this wrong.

what are the specific pieces of information that you will use as guides for your fellows?

How many forum posts, Facebook follows and retweets will be enough for you to say, "Guys, forget about the billion dollars this quarter. Forget about the record profits. Forget about moving well ahead of our best hopes. We've got a real problem, and if we don't fix it, we're in for major trouble ahead" --- AND have them say, "Fritz, you're right. People signing up for Creative Cloud so much faster than our wildest dreams is leading us in the wrong direction. We shouldn't be so excited that so many people are signing up ahead of schedule, when they don't actually have to. We can't let our exceeded expectations take our eye off the ball."

I ask this having been hired at another company to speak hard truths. They WANTED me to use my knowledge of their customers to kick the company's ass. But if I couldn't back it up, then I was just another a-hole yelling on a soapbox. You can't build a business that way. You can't. You keep an eye on your unhappiest customers, but primarily as a bellwether against your paying customers, triangulating a course as your best customers risk becoming your unhappiest ones...

...but I ask again, what SPECIFICALLY would you say that will be more persuasive than their customers' actual behavior? The suits are waiting for your data to help keep the company on the rails. What's the data that trumps behavior?


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Ricardo Marty
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 10:46:16 pm

the answer is not how many subscriptions but how much incoming cash. and at the moment the cash is not comming in as they hoped at least from cc. the marketing cloud is whats bringing in most of the money.

ricardo marty


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 11:07:56 pm
Last Edited By Franz Bieberkopf on Jul 15, 2014 at 11:08:43 pm

[Tim Wilson] "... but I ask again, what SPECIFICALLY would you say that will be more persuasive than their customers' actual behavior? The suits are waiting for your data to help keep the company on the rails. What's the data that trumps behavior?"


Tim,

This is a good point. The place to start would be to poll their user base circa 2011-2012 and find out how many want a rental model and how many want perpetual license.

Of course, this presupposes the false dichotomy that Adobe is faced with an either/or choice. But that's the data point I would start with.

Is that where Adobe started? I'd love to see the figures.

Franz.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 11:31:19 pm

at last count cc had 800k photoshop 9.95 subscription that equals in dollars to about 16k individual cc subscribers. well 800k added to the 2. whatever makes it look big but in dollar value its really nothing, at least not what they expected. of course they have to make it sound like the biggest thing. dont we all know a thing or two about hype?

ricard marty


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David Lawrence
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 11:21:25 pm

[Tim Wilson] "The suits are waiting for your data to help keep the company on the rails. What's the data that trumps behavior?"

I think it's still way too early in the game to conclude anything. This post today on MacInTouch is a good example of the long-term risk:

A MacInTouch Reader
Adobe just raised my Creative Cloud to $49.95+tax. The grace period for previous owners, which was available to anyone is over. Now it's $600 annually to rent, knowing my tools go away if I stop paying. Isn't there a word for this, that bad guys in the twenties did to shop owners? It's like insurance to help your business continue, so pay every month or else.

http://www.macintouch.com/readerreports/applications/index.html#d15jul2014

_______________________
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Dave LaRonde
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 16, 2014 at 12:20:48 am
Last Edited By Dave LaRonde on Jul 16, 2014 at 12:27:23 am

Now, there's a metaphor for Adobe I hadn't heard yet: it's a protection racket.

Al Capone lives!

Dave LaRonde
Promotion Producer
KGAN (CBS) & KFXA (Fox) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Chris Pettit
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 10:56:36 pm

[Tim Wilson] "
I agree that there is a big difference between people paying for something and people being HAPPY about HAVING to pay for something.

BUT, the fact that Adobe's numbers are moving so much more quickly ahead of projection -- as much as 30% ahead of projection -- suggests to me that the friction is less than described in this forum and elsewhere."


I disagree Tim. I've simply had too many conversations with too many CC users who are subscribing for a variety of reasons, including the most common "I have to stay current", or "I really don't care all that much, its a small cost of doing business, PL or CC, either way I'm happy". I have yet meet one single person outside of this forum that A. is a CS Suite PL owner, and B. prefers to rent the software now that they've made the investment in the PL Suites.

And of course there is the 800 pound gorilla: New Users. People that were either not previous owners of Suites or even of individual Adobe apps that can now suddenly afford it, albeit short term. How much you want to bet this is the largest non-enterprise sector of that 2.3 Million subscribers? Adobe has quite clearly found a way to tap in to 100's of thousands of users that wouldn't have paid the previous price for entry. And all the more power too them, more is better. But I don't think you can draw conclusions from that that everyone loves subscriptions.

But of course that's just anecdotal, no science. Maybe a Creative Cow satisfaction / motivation Poll is in order?

[Tim Wilson] "The thing about stock price is that it only reflects the FEELING of investors. Profitability reflects management of expenses even more than it reflects income."

Agreed. And at the moment that isn't going too well for them. Profits are down.

[Tim Wilson] "The income itself, though. That ENTIRELY reflects people's ACTIONS. What are people DOING about Adobe? What ACTIONS are they taking? The ACTION, what they're DOING, is giving Adobe more money than Adobe predicted, and MORE of them are doing it than Adobe predicted."

Yes, but again, how much of that is by obligation as opposed to preferring the new rental model? I keep hearing on this forum that we all have "choices". A lot of people simply don't. In my particular case, most of my clients are not involved in "how" I get things done. As a result, CS6 will work for me for a while longer (I hope) before I'll have to make the tough decisions about Adobe (4K is what is really starting to scare me though). But I know lots of other Adobe customers who have already being FORCED to subscribe simply to enjoy compatibility with clients with internal CC resources. That is simply not a free market for products and services. Not. The apps, formats and compatibility are forcing people into subscription and a lot of them are grumbling about it.

In the absence of any scientific metrics about motivations, I don't believe this is just the free market working as it should. I think it's more likely a very large company that dominates digital content development of all kinds forcing the multiple industry segments to head in a direction that is first and foremost in that companies interest. Remains to be seen if it proves to be in the broader population of developers interests.


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: @Tim
on Jul 15, 2014 at 11:43:07 pm

[Chris Pettit] "Maybe a Creative Cow satisfaction / motivation Poll is in order?"

Tim,

This is a great idea.

How many Adobe users pass through all these forums?

Why not ask.

Franz.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: @Tim
on Jul 15, 2014 at 11:55:25 pm

[Franz Bieberkopf] "Tim,

This is a great idea.

How many Adobe users pass through all these forums?

Why not ask."


I don't think a completely unscientific poll of an incredibly small portion of Adobe's user base will accomplish much.


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 12:10:04 am

[Andrew Kimery] "I don't think a completely unscientific poll of an incredibly small portion of Adobe's user base will accomplish much."

Andrew,

[Tim Wilson] "(For reference, there are 250,000 members at Creative COW, with around 2 million visitors every month.)"
http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/62356

... what portion of those visit Adobe forums?

What number would you consider significant in light of 1.8 million subscribers at CC?

Franz.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 12:38:42 am

[Franz Bieberkopf] "... what portion of those visit Adobe forums?

What number would you consider significant in light of 1.8 million subscribers at CC?"


With a properly done, scientific poll about 1000 random participants should be able get us about +/- 4% accuracy.

Asking users of a specific Internet forum to fill out a poll will only give us information about the users that go to that specific forum and volunteered to fill out the poll. It's useless information in the bigger discussion of how all Adobe users feel about the move to CC. Even if everyone at the COW took the poll I doubt it would be a an accurate cross section of all Adobe users so the info would still be skewed and inaccurate. For an extreme example, it's like polling Macrumors.com and then 'determining' that the vast majority of the population uses iPhones and Macs.


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 12:40:45 am

[Andrew Kimery] " It's useless information in the bigger discussion of how all Adobe users feel about the move to CC."

Andrew,

Okay, but CC subscription numbers are equally useless then - self-selecting and only a subset of Adobe users, etc.

Franz.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 12:52:42 am

[Franz Bieberkopf] "Okay, but CC subscription numbers are equally useless then - self-selecting and only a subset of Adobe users, etc."

Useless in what context? I don't know what point you are trying to argue.


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 1:01:16 am
Last Edited By Franz Bieberkopf on Jul 16, 2014 at 1:04:12 am

[Andrew Kimery] " I don't know what point you are trying to argue."

Andrew,

Broadly, Tim brought up the issue of what a company like Adobe could use as I guide - suggesting that sales is pretty much the answer. I suggested that knowing what the user base wanted (specifically rental vs. perpetual license, even though that is a false dichotomy) would be a good place to start.

Polling the user base seems reasonable.

If there are hundreds of thousands of Adobe users clicking through the forums here, I find it hard to dismiss those kinds of numbers as unrepresentative, and certainly in any case they would be interesting.

(Personally, I think they'd skew towards the rental CC model, but it would be interesting to know.)

Franz.

Edit: for clarity I am responding to this:

[Andrew Kimery] "It's useless information in the bigger discussion of how all Adobe users feel about the move to CC."

... CC rental numbers also do not tell how "all Adobe users feel about the move to CC".


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Andrew Kimery
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 1:29:51 am

You are putting words in my mouth, Franz.

The only thing I said was that if the COW did a voluntary poll of COW users about Adobe it would not be a scientific poll and would not accurately produce results that were representative of all Adobe users. I think a poll of Adobe users would be great. And it should be done by a company like Gallop so the numbers are meaningful.

If the COW has reached bellwether status (as goes the COW, so goes the post production industry) my apologies to Tim and the gang for selling them short.


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Chris Pettit
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 1:34:28 am

[Andrew Kimery] " I think a poll of Adobe users would be great. And it should be done by a company like Gallop so the numbers are meaningful."

OK. Agreed. Who's paying for it?


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Andrew Kimery
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 1:38:37 am

[Chris Pettit] "OK. Agreed. Who's paying for it?"

Tim should take up a collection from COW users. The number of people that chip in should give us a good indication of how many people give a crap. ;)


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Chris Pettit
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 2:20:19 am

[Andrew Kimery] "Tim should take up a collection from COW users. The number of people that chip in should give us a good indication of how many people give a crap. ;)"

I'm in. I'll contribute. What does a Gallup poll cost?


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 3:07:26 am

[Andrew Kimery] "You are putting words in my mouth, Franz."

?

Franz.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 4:32:58 am

[Franz Bieberkopf] "?

Franz."


You brought up things like CC subscribers and Tim's post and I've commented on neither. The only thing I've commented on in this thread is questioning the usefulness of conducting an unscientific poll of COW users.


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 12:11:42 pm

[Andrew Kimery] " The only thing I've commented on in this thread is questioning the usefulness of conducting an unscientific poll of COW users."

Andrew,

Well, you did so by providing a frame of reference - specifically, if such a poll would be useful "in the bigger discussion of how all Adobe users feel." That's your framing, not mine.

[Andrew Kimery] " It's useless information in the bigger discussion of how all Adobe users feel about the move to CC."

As to:

[Andrew Kimery] "You brought up things like CC subscribers and Tim's post and I've commented on neither."

You specifically asked me to explain my point:

[Andrew Kimery] " I don't know what point you are trying to argue."

So Tim's post may or may not be of interest to you, but you did ask me to explain what I meant. (Unless you intended to simply state you didn't understand without wanting an explanation.)

I'll simplify - if you're going to judge such a poll's usefulness to "the bigger discussion of how all Adobe users feel", then I am suggesting that CC subscription numbers should also be judged in that frame of reference. This is relevant because Tim was suggesting that such numbers are a useful tool in that discussion.

Franz.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 4:15:01 pm

[Franz Bieberkopf] "Well, you did so by providing a frame of reference - specifically, if such a poll would be useful "in the bigger discussion of how all Adobe users feel." That's your framing, not mine."

That's because the poll would not be scientifically accurate. My framing was just a statement of fact.

[Franz Bieberkopf] "So Tim's post may or may not be of interest to you, but you did ask me to explain what I meant. (Unless you intended to simply state you didn't understand without wanting an explanation.)"

No, I wanted an explanation because I felt like I was being pulled into a conversation I wasn't participating in, and when you gave me more details I knew I was being pulled into a conversation I wasn't participating in. That's why I said you were putting words in my mouth. Chris suggested a COW poll. You seconded the motion. I questioned the usefulness of an unscientific COW poll and here we are.

You keep bringing up Tim in relation to me even though I didn't read what Tim said. If Tim suggested an unscientific poll too then my comments apply there to because an unscientific poll is an unscientific poll. If the goal is to get a better understanding of how Adobe users feel about Adobe then a scientific poll is the only way to accurately do that.


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Chris Pettit
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 12:53:45 am

[Andrew Kimery] " For an extreme example, it's like polling Macrumors.com and then 'determining' that the vast majority of the population uses iPhones and Macs."

If you point is that the sample size is too small, then well, OK. fair point

But your point is that there is a unique and universal, singular point of view here? Given this thread, I think not.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 1:14:51 am

[Chris Pettit] "But your point is that there is a unique and universal, singular point of view here? Given this thread, I think not."

No, my point is that asking COW users to take part in a voluntary poll would be not produce scientifically accurate results and therefore would not generate any useful information.


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Chris Pettit
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 1:20:41 am

[Andrew Kimery] "No, my point is that asking COW users to take part in a voluntary poll would be not produce scientifically accurate results and therefore would not generate any useful information."

Jeez, the list of polls I've participated in that were NOT scientific is very long, including many that were sponsored by Creative Cow. If that's the criteria, then only the government can conduct polls.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: @Tim
on Jul 16, 2014 at 1:36:31 am

[Chris Pettit] "Jeez, the list of polls I've participated in that were NOT scientific is very long, including many that were sponsored by Creative Cow. If that's the criteria, then only the government can conduct polls."

Lots of private companies conduct scientific polls (Gallop, for example).

A voluntary poll on the COW is maybe a step above all of us sharing our anecdotal evidence. Sure, it's interesting to mull over but my, yours or Franz's personal experiences can't be extrapolated out to represent Adobe users as a whole with any sort of accuracy.


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Richard Herd
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 11:25:25 pm
Last Edited By Richard Herd on Jul 15, 2014 at 11:27:34 pm

[Tim Wilson] "That ENTIRELY reflects people's ACTIONS. What are people DOING about Adobe? What ACTIONS are they taking? The ACTION, what they're DOING, is giving Adobe more money than Adobe predicted, and MORE of them are doing it than Adobe predicted."

I read this paragraph, based on the use of caps, in the style of William Shatner. ;)

Edit: Buying stock is also behavior that says something about Adobe.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 16, 2014 at 12:23:51 am

buying stock from adobe is mostly a broker to client relationship purchse most purchsers probaly dont even know what adobe is save what the broker told them. these wallst firms and the brokers are making big bucks on commisions for sonething that has yet to be seen.

ricardo marty


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Tim Kolb
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 7:59:18 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "dont know how you can say that has succeded when all indicator point toward a struggle at best."

Their subscriptions are ahead of projections, as are their profits (they projected a steep decline through the transition period, but made 17 cents a share in the last fiscal quarter, up slightly year-on-year from last year)...

What I can't figure out is how so many of the people who hate the subscription thing (which, again, I say is a valid viewpoint), seem to say that Adobe did this to line their pockets and in the same sentence point to their financial collapse...

It's what makes these threads relatively circular...and kind of exhausting.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Ricardo Marty
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 8:31:04 pm

i doubt very much that they contemplated 9.95 subscriptions, 40% off pricing. 2 years into cc. plus all the fire sale prices. they did not include it in the propectus.

ricardo marty


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Richard Herd
Re: So Adobe is now a "cloud service" company?
on Jul 15, 2014 at 11:32:29 pm

[Tim Kolb] "seem to say that Adobe did this to line their pockets and in the same sentence point to their financial collapse.."

the fancy word is confirmation bias. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Adobe Calling in Experts ...
on Jul 15, 2014 at 11:36:40 pm
Last Edited By Franz Bieberkopf on Jul 15, 2014 at 11:37:53 pm

[Tim Wilson] "Imagine that you're sitting in a conference room at Adobe, with a blank whiteboard in front of you, You've got a roomful of suits staring at you, WANTING you to dazzle them. They've hired you because they believe you know the customer base, and NONE of them want to make a mistake. It will cost the company billions and cost them their jobs to get this wrong."

Tim,

It's like you wrote this as the perfect on-stage introduction for William S. Burroughs. A voice from the grave.







Franz.
(at great risk of Godwin)


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