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Partly Cloudy - Oliver Peter's excellent and balanced take on the issue

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Mark Dobson
Partly Cloudy - Oliver Peter's excellent and balanced take on the issue
on May 12, 2013 at 12:03:49 pm

Oliver Peters has a journalistic ability to stand back, observe and then provide a clear analysis of the Adobe CC debate.

His last paragraph is quite chilling.

http://digitalfilms.wordpress.com/


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Craig Seeman
Re: Partly Cloudy - Oliver Peter's excellent and balanced take on the issue
on May 12, 2013 at 2:25:12 pm

With Adobe's methods the democratization might slow, involving only those willing to pay monthly in perpetuity. On the other hand the door is now open to competing products with business models friendly to those who don't want to be on the forced upgrade (paid whether you actually do or not) model.

Much as Oliver alludes to in his well written piece, imagine the small mom and pop who mainly has a copy of Photoshop and After Effects to check client projects. They are faced with subscriptions just to do that or pay a monthly each time they need to check a client file.

I know many "blame" Adobe but I do think they did what was best for their business.... and we'll do what's best for ours.



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Jim Cunningham
Re: Partly Cloudy - Oliver Peter's excellent and balanced take on the issue
on May 12, 2013 at 5:56:27 pm

There have been several comparisons of the cost of CC subscription to the perpetual model w/ upgrades. They all seem to be based on a yearly pattern, i.e. $600 for subscription per year verses $380 (ish) per year for upgrades. The thing is; upgrades never happened every year. At the 2012 NAB, Adobe made a big thing about major upgrades every two years, and that was met with great relief and approval (especially from the Final Cut camp that were seeing major upgrades far less frequently). So, the real cost of upgrading to the latest version of Production Premium was about $380 (per license) every two years ($190 a year), which brings the CC subscription to over a 300% increase. An increase of that magnitude would even make the health-care industry shudder in disbelief.

What are the possible unintended consequences of this move? For many, PS CS6 will do the job for many years to come. As Oliver mentioned, CS4 & CS5 are still being used by at numerous sites. For the next generation of graphic artists/students Pixelmator (@ $15) will probably become the go-to software. AE CS6 will work for a while, and most of us still have Motion 3 and possibly 4. Audition CS6 does most everything that I need, and there are many other choices in the audio arena. Very much a wild card in all of this is Blackmagic. They have been enormously aggressive in providing production & capture gear. Their most recent incarnation of Resolve is starting to look a lot like an NLE. Given BM recent ground breaking innovations, and the self inflicted backlash caused by CC, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a full blow Resolve like NLE at NAB 2014.

Finally, I’ve had the opportunity to work w/ many editing systems during my career (CMX, Grass Valley, Sony, Abekas, Avid, Final Cut, Adobe CS 5.5 & 6). Transitioning from one system to another is a wrenching experience. It can take many months to become truly comfortable w/ a new system. Making the transition from Final Cut to Premiere required a significant investment in time. So to have to consider making that change again in less than a year is a real PIA; raising a great deal of resentment focused at Adobe and their “we’re listening to you” spiel. Hopefully, as Oliver has poses, a compromise will emerge that will quell the angst.

Oh the drama!

Cheers,



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David Mathis
Re: Partly Cloudy - Oliver Peter's excellent and balanced take on the issue
on May 12, 2013 at 10:12:06 pm

[Jim Cunningham] " Very much a wild card in all of this is Blackmagic. They have been enormously aggressive in providing production & capture gear. Their most recent incarnation of Resolve is starting to look a lot like an NLE. Given BM recent ground breaking innovations, and the self inflicted backlash caused by CC, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a full blow Resolve like NLE at NAB 2014."

I see Resolve heading in that direction and something before NAB 2014 would be nice.


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Mahmoud EL-Darwish
Re: Partly Cloudy - Oliver Peter's excellent and balanced take on the issue
on May 12, 2013 at 7:40:18 pm

Big Brother, The Cloud and Indepenence Armageddon
by Mahmoud El-Darwish (Notes) on Friday, May 10, 2013 at 9:34pm

As you read the following text, I urge readers to bear in mind that the very intent of the standalone computer systems introduced in the mid 1980's, was to empower the small independent end-user.


In 2001 I gave a lecture on the absurdity of software upgrades for pay and part of the lecture was a real and projected breakdown on the total lifetime cost of ownership of a set of software and hardware tools for a specific domain of enterprise. As I recall, the total lifetime (30years) cost of running single user software (4 task specific suites) in the domain of light multimedia was projected at close to $40,000 for software and a mind boggling $105,000 for hardware (computers and related drivers and cards but not cameras or printers).


The point of that lecture was to demonstrate that even while software companies distribute what amounts to unfinished 'beta' caliber wares, they still command top dollar and keep customers upgrading with the promise that their overpriced 'bloatware' will result in a viable ROI for the end user.
In truth, Only a small percentage of product improvements translate into visible increases in productivity and profit for the end-user (Moore's Law not withstanding), even as they grossly inflate profits for software and hardware companies, as well their share value.


So in 2013 we are confronted with a devious plot to get end-users to give up their software installation DVD's and downloaded firmware and SW updates and just run all their software from 'The Cloud'.


No doubt, distributed computing in the 90's was the Genesis of this model.


As I have stated ad-nauseum, 'The Cloud' is analogous to a magic carpet floating in the sky. Them that control the magic carpet, control the sky. One 'pull' of the carpet and the sky comes falling down. By this I mean that the software companies plan to make it impossible for end users to control their enterprises at all. This also means that once beholden to cloud domiciled enterprise models, there is no restriction to what software companies will charge for 'subscriptions' as well as updates. This will also create a new rift between those that can afford the subscriptions and those that cannot. A new class of technology worker will emerge that will nullify the great technological egalitarianism of the 90's. Meet the privileged technology worker with 'access'. Gone will be the level playing field so beneficial to our economy at the cusp of the New Millenium.


The model will be identical to the one that as developed by ISP and Cable providers for TV programming. Fail to pay your subscription fee and 'poof' you are disconnected.
Just imagine that for software that a small business depends on for survival!
Once you agree to be part of the 'Cloud' collective, you are doomed.


But there is some hope


My advice has been the same for 15 years.
Buy up all the stand- alone software that you can right now. If that is CS6+latest updates for Visual Designers. Grab them, Grab all the compliant workstations that you can, fill them up with all the RAM and storage that you can. Buy extra parts and run these computers entirely OFFLINE.
That way Adobe can't 'zap' your software remotely.
Do this for all your software needs because eventually, more companies will try to force the cloud-only model on their customers.


This is the beginning, not of a 'revolution' to benefit the end user, but rather, a war between the end user and the Software Cos.
Decide if you want to win or if you want the software giants to own you, 'lock stock and barrel' as we used to say.
The end-user is entitled to minimize outlays for 'tools of the trade' so as to maximize profitability.
This is good business sense.
The hegemony that the computer industry has had over the tools can be halted with resistance from the end-user community. An organized effort should be mounted to counter what is a clear effort to turn what has been a relatively level playing field into to one that only those with deep pockets can play on.
No doubt there are those that have more money than brains and are are willing to prove it.
Bless them as they are the backbone of our consumer-centric economy.
But unless you are a member of this elite community, you'd better protect yourselves.


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Tim Kolb
Re: Partly Cloudy - Oliver Peter's excellent and balanced take on the issue
on May 13, 2013 at 3:41:51 pm

[Mahmoud EL-Darwish] ". As I recall, the total lifetime (30years) cost of running single user software (4 task specific suites) in the domain of light multimedia was projected at close to $40,000 for software and a mind boggling $105,000 for hardware"

...so your cost for computer software and hardware over 3 decades was 145,000.00.

What would you have projected as the income a professional should be making over the course of 30 years? It's not exactly unheard of for 145,000.00 to be one year's billings against one editing suite.

I think anyone in a business outside our field might find themselves in envy of our predicament.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Dave LaRonde
Re: Partly Cloudy - Oliver Peter's excellent and balanced take on the issue
on May 13, 2013 at 5:44:06 pm

[Mark Dobson] "His last paragraph is quite chilling."

Especially the sentence opening that paragraph:
"...Don’t trust any company that says they have a vision for your digital future..."

As I recall, Media 100 played the "vision for your future" card....
not very long before its demise, either. There probably have been others who invoked the same thing, meeting a similar fate.

Dave LaRonde
Former Sr. Promotion Producer
KCRG-TV (ABC) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Walter Soyka
Re: Partly Cloudy - Oliver Peter's excellent and balanced take on the issue
on May 13, 2013 at 6:02:27 pm

[Dave LaRonde] "Especially the sentence opening that paragraph:
"...Don’t trust any company that says they have a vision for your digital future...""


I get the sentiment -- but isn't vision necessary for innovation? And who would be left to trust?

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Dave LaRonde
Re: Partly Cloudy - Oliver Peter's excellent and balanced take on the issue
on May 13, 2013 at 6:44:33 pm

[Walter Soyka] "I get the sentiment -- but isn't vision necessary for innovation?"

Oh, vision is a huge part of the equation: witness the introductions of the iPod and the iPhone, to mention two. However, there is a big difference between those two examples and the current situation with Adobe.

Steve Jobs brought totally new devices to the market. You could either get them or not, no harm done. I think it's safe to say that Steve Jobs possessed vision.

But when you've invested man-years in using Adobe software tools, and you wonder if you'll be able to justify the ongoing cost to access your own work -- i.e. project files created under the new model -- the cynic in you smells a very big rat when it's associated with the word "vision".
The alternative is to continue to use tools which will eventually become hopelessly outdated. That's not an especially appealing choice. "Vision" becomes little more than an alternate term for "extortion".

I very much doubt you will find yourself in a position where you will need to justify the new subscription model to yourself. You have a successful operation, and I hope it remains so. For you, The subscription model simply turns software acquisition in to a monthly expense like the light bill. It will probably save you a few extra bucks in the long run. It makes eminent good sense for you.

But along with my best wishes for your continued success is my sincere hope that your business never, EVER suffers to the point where you have to ask yourself, "Which expense do I not pay this month?" God forbid that it would happen.

But you would quickly see that someone is holding your Adobe project files hostage, and you would have to resort to relying on the kindness of your acquaintances in the business to even access your own work.

I used to describe Adobe products as "software for Everyman".
In the very near future, it will become "software BY successful entrepreneurs, for successful entrepreneurs ONLY".

As to trust: as a businessman yourself, you doubtlessly know that trust is a fleeting commodity. It's hard to win, but oh-so-easy to lose. By the tone of the majority of participants in this group, Adobe seems to be squandering that particular commodity by the boatload.

Dave LaRonde
Former Sr. Promotion Producer
KCRG-TV (ABC) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Walter Soyka
Re: Partly Cloudy - Oliver Peter's excellent and balanced take on the issue
on May 15, 2013 at 4:32:36 am

Sorry for my delay in responding, Dave.


[Dave LaRonde] "Oh, vision is a huge part of the equation: witness the introductions of the iPod and the iPhone, to mention two. However, there is a big difference between those two examples and the current situation with Adobe. Steve Jobs brought totally new devices to the market. You could either get them or not, no harm done. I think it's safe to say that Steve Jobs possessed vision. But when you've invested man-years in using Adobe software tools, and you wonder if you'll be able to justify the ongoing cost to access your own work -- i.e. project files created under the new model -- the cynic in you smells a very big rat when it's associated with the word "vision". "

Apple many not be the best counter-example about vision you can trust, considering their push to iCloud and steps away from former partners like Google, choice-restricting closed systems like the iPhone and App Store, and customer lock-in like TV shows and movies from the iTMS -- all this while making their computers and devices ever more disposable.



[Dave LaRonde] "I very much doubt you will find yourself in a position where you will need to justify the new subscription model to yourself. You have a successful operation, and I hope it remains so. For you, The subscription model simply turns software acquisition in to a monthly expense like the light bill. It will probably save you a few extra bucks in the long run. It makes eminent good sense for you. But along with my best wishes for your continued success is my sincere hope that your business never, EVER suffers to the point where you have to ask yourself, "Which expense do I not pay this month?""

Thank you sincerely for your kind words and well-wishes!



[Dave LaRonde] "But you would quickly see that someone is holding your Adobe project files hostage, and you would have to resort to relying on the kindness of your acquaintances in the business to even access your own work."

Please understand that I do share some of your concerns around CC. This is new, and many folks are very reasonably worried about what will happen if it doesn't work out. I do think it's especially important that anyone considering CC understands that they will need to have active memberships (either continued on-going subscriptions or one-off monthly subscriptions) to access their project files.

I think anyone who is rightfully concerned about the long-term accessibility of their projects should be outputting EDL/XML/whatever along with masters. This is a best practice for any application, not just CC.


[Dave LaRonde] "I used to describe Adobe products as "software for Everyman". In the very near future, it will become "software BY successful entrepreneurs, for successful entrepreneurs ONLY"."

There's another way to look at this, too. One of the most important things CC does is eliminate the barrier to entry. Most folks I know can afford $50/mo more easily than they can afford a $1900 lump sum for CS6 Production Premium or $2600 for CS6 Master Collection.

It also allows you to buy in only when you want access to the app, a month at a time, instead of paying a big sum for something you may not use continuously.

CC could actually make Adobe products more accessible than they were before.


[Dave LaRonde] "As to trust: as a businessman yourself, you doubtlessly know that trust is a fleeting commodity. It's hard to win, but oh-so-easy to lose. By the tone of the majority of participants in this group, Adobe seems to be squandering that particular commodity by the boatload."

Without a doubt. A lot of people are feeling burned here because everything is different, and they think the new arrangement benefits Adobe and hurts customers. They feel betrayed. I guess it could go that way, but Adobe has built up enough trust with me over the years that I'm willing to see where Creative Cloud goes. I see a lot of potential for upside, too.

If Creative Cloud turns out to be nothing more than a new way to pay for Creative Suite, it's a disappointment. But if there is actually something to this vision thing and Creative Cloud becomes more focused on connectivity, I think "membership" will prove more valuable than "ownership."

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Partly Cloudy - Oliver Peter's excellent and balanced take on the issue
on May 13, 2013 at 9:28:56 pm

I still use the latest Media 100 version 2.1.3 for finish. Owned by Boris now. Glad I didn't go whole hog on Premiere yet. Was looking forward to CS7. Great for ingest with all the codecs, color correct, titling and export to ProRes HQ to M100. Fast and stable. Can't say it will be around forever, but I think I can keep the PP CS6/M100 combo going as long as I need for my documentaries & editing my art pieces. No more Adobe upgrades unless they come to their senses & return to a perpetual license.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1,Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1, Premiere Pro 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Avid MC, Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 8Gb SSD, G5 Quadcore PCIe


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