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Wall street getting nervous?

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Chris Pettit
Wall street getting nervous?
on Apr 6, 2014 at 3:07:11 am

I've avoided discussions about insider stock sell-offs because I simply don't have enough background to understand trends and day-to-day nuance to speak intelligently, particularly regarding insiders at Adobe or anywhere else.

But I wonder if this latest article from Wall Street is worthy of discussion?:

Of particular interest:

"NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Adobe Systems (ADBE_) finished down 4.63% to $62.45 today after reports insiders sold their shares of the stock. Four Adobe insiders: Co-chairman Charles Geschke, CEO Shantanu Narayen, CFO Mark Garrett, and general manager David Wadhwani all sold shares this week....

"We rate ADOBE SYSTEMS INC (ADBE) a HOLD....

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12622176/1/why-adobe-adbe-stock-finished-low...

I invite those who know more than I how Wall Street actually works to comment regarding whether this is worthy of discussion or is simply the usual day to day trading.

A lot of experts out there. Thoughts?


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Wall street getting nervous?
on Apr 6, 2014 at 3:52:04 am

This has been happening for somtime. These ecutives are selling their stocks and have dwindled the amount the own. This has been happening everytime the stocks go up. I dont know but it seem akin to clearing everything before there is nothing to clear.

Ricardo Marty


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Herbert van der wegen
Re: Wall street getting nervous?
on Apr 7, 2014 at 8:24:07 am

Again?! The bubble must be about to burst - the discrepancy between the stock value and the actual dwindling profits is just becoming too great.

I hope the following scenario won't pan out now: Adobe's stocks fail miserably in one or two months, followed by the dismissal of the CEOs, who happen to have cashed in big, receive a huge departure bonus, and go on to even greener pastures in other large corps, leaving Adobe Corp in the midst of financial chaos, and hundreds of jobs lost in the process.

/*----------------------------------------------------*/
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Chris Pettit
Re: Wall street getting nervous?
on Apr 7, 2014 at 3:17:57 pm

I assume that they are simply cashing out because they believe that the stock price has topped out. By itself, that may not be news.

But when the overall stock price drops as a result, and a rating agency recommends a hold, what are the implications? What are the responsibilities of insiders to not let their trades affect other investors stock value?

I really am sincere in asking these questions, I'm no expert.


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Richard Herd
Re: Wall street getting nervous?
on Apr 7, 2014 at 3:38:26 pm

[Chris Pettit] "the stock price has topped out."

That's a false assumption.

It could be that the option of what they sold reached a percentage goal and that particular cash flow topped out and it's time to reinvest.

Or maybe he wanted a new yacht.

or maybe his kids need an Ivy League education.

Or maybe he just wanted to take a money bath.


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Chris Pettit
Re: Wall street getting nervous?
on Apr 7, 2014 at 4:09:34 pm

[Richard Herd] "[Chris Pettit] "the stock price has topped out."

That's a false assumption."


I didnt say it topped out. My question was could it be that THEY think its topped out?


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Richard Herd
Re: Wall street getting nervous?
on Apr 7, 2014 at 4:41:33 pm

Maybe, but I think the money bath sounds like the most fun, but I'm not anywhere near the top 1%, so maybe a money bath is blasé to him.

I would think though they had options that came due.


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Richard Herd
Re: Wall street getting nervous?
on Apr 7, 2014 at 3:36:44 pm

Definitely I'm not expert. Or I would not be making commercials, I'd still be sleeping.

IMO, The fact that they sell their stocks means very little about NASDAQ:ADBE as an investment opportunity and means even less about the next round of CC updates.

NASDAQ:ADBE is rated hold (not buy, not sell).

Those insider guys are looking for growth (aren't we all?) so they sold the hold stock and probably bought a growth. We don't get to know what that is, although I'm very curious.

Growth stocks are highly competitive. In a market situation, where growth stocks are scarce, then the price of growth stocks inflates. As more growth stocks accumulate (a current trend), then the price of growth stocks declines. That is currently the haps on NASDAQ, as it was explained to me on Friday. More growth stocks are growing, other growth stocks flatten. NASDAQ: ADBE has definitely flattened, not because NASDAQ:ADBE is a bad stock, but because other growth stocks are attracting buyers. (Couple that with Janet Yellen's comments on Friday and the weaker than expected job's report.)

Reading the tea leaves, I think June will be a big deal for NASDAQ:ADBE because of all the graduations and new freelancers in the market. Will they buy CC? (not just video, but also graphic designers, web, print...)? If so, will that happen every graduation cycle?

History is a big indicator too. Over the past couple of millennia companies who rented their tools to their workers/producers have done quite well. If you're looking to buy a stock, NASDAQ:ADBE is pretty good, if you can sit on it for a year or more. If you're looking to protest CC to cause the stock to fall so they return to perpetual licensing, you're probably not gonna win that protest, not without some real legal muscle, like the Adobe Consumer Group mentioned a few days ago, suing for damages over a technical legal detail.


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Wall street getting nervous?
on Apr 7, 2014 at 3:43:34 pm

[Richard Herd] "... the Adobe Consumer Group mentioned a few days ago, suing for damages over a technical legal detail."

?

Franz.


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Richard Herd
Re: Wall street getting nervous?
on Apr 7, 2014 at 4:45:57 pm

[Franz Bieberkopf] "[Richard Herd] "... the Adobe Consumer Group mentioned a few days ago, suing for damages over a technical legal detail."

?

Franz."


Sorry. Here's the link: http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/378/7191


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Chris Pettit
Re: Wall street getting nervous?
on Apr 7, 2014 at 4:11:52 pm

[Richard Herd] " If you're looking to protest CC to cause the stock to fall so they return to perpetual licensing, you're probably not gonna win that protest,"

I'm not. But they may have eventually be forced to address the "off ramp" issue.

[Richard Herd] "Reading the tea leaves, I think June will be a big deal for NASDAQ:ADBE because of all the graduations and new freelancers in the market. Will they buy CC? (not just video, but also graphic designers, web, print...)? If so, will that happen every graduation cycle?"

That's an interesting thought, hadn't occurred to me


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Richard Herd
Re: Wall street getting nervous?
on Apr 7, 2014 at 4:44:32 pm

OR...do the students already purchase the CC as part of their text-book stuff.

If NASDAQ:ADBE really wants a rentier type situation, exploiting the student loans here in the US would generate quite a bit of money. Students get their loans from the lender, then the lender sends it to the school to pay for course fees, which could include CC, and then after graduation, the fees loans are paid back.


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