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Throwing down the carrot

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Rich Rubasch
Throwing down the carrot
on Mar 26, 2014 at 7:16:39 pm

Just got a "save now and lock in" email. Looks like prices could go up after NAB for those early adopters and those who waited are being wooed in to get in at a lower rate and lock in for 2 years.

Any takers?

I'm holding fast.....no deal.

http://m.info.adobesystems.com/nl/jsp/m.jsp?c=%40cALHf8cmSenwFmdFuh3FdCoiIE...

Rich Rubasch
Tilt Media Inc.
Video Production, Post, Studio Sound Stage
Founder/President/Editor/Designer/Animator
http://www.tiltmedia.com


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Mar 26, 2014 at 7:27:46 pm

yet an other limited time offer...
(means at Adobe: Get it cheaper, when this offer ends...)


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Mar 26, 2014 at 10:59:25 pm

I wouldn't read too much into it. The lock deal has been going since late last summer I think.


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Mar 27, 2014 at 2:01:37 am

the percentage of the base on rolling two year term deals is weird tho - the subscription base is a bit of a financial mess at this point.
and good lord the reaping once it comes. we are talking an attempt at lock in here. once they smell lock in, they will unsheathe the knives and forks.

we are literally the only things they can feed on. they don't have a 100+ million telco market with live competitors.

No, morons, they only have available the near monopoly subscription they manage to generate out of the original 10-12 mill pool.

water up to your ankles out of water up to your knees.
we are effectively screwed, and no realistic competitors are entering the market. competitors for AE FL ID PS simply do not exist.

Most of the craft is, by stages, falling into a fly trap. It's predatory and specifically designed to precarious creatives.
there is profit on renting to them, and there is profit on them failing the rent.

It is john warnocks's adobe presenting themselves as a predatory tool monopoly rent for profit, crouched over single operator creatives.

trip at your peril.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Chris Pettit
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Mar 27, 2014 at 2:27:26 am

[Aindreas Gallagher] "we are effectively screwed, and no realistic competitors are entering the market. competitors for AE FL ID PS simply do not exist."

That's it, at least for me, AE FL and PS specifically, others in smaller ways. I have no choice. Fight this monstrosity or risk huge damage done to my way of doing business and my financial survival. I'm a small independent business, with no particular power to affect change in the industry, other than to make the most noise possible and to hope that others will respond accordingly.

[Aindreas Gallagher] "It is john warnocks's adobe presenting themselves as a predatory tool monopoly rent for profit, crouched over single operator creatives."

Not an exaggeration in my opinion. And the bad will generated by Adobe on the part of people like me is deep and lasting. If they succeed, then no one will ultimately care what happens to small creative enterprises as a result. If they fail to make the profits that Wall Street blindly thinks they are in line to make... well then maybe a different story.

Win or lose, deep and lasting resentment at being treated this way will last for a long time.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Mar 27, 2014 at 3:12:56 am

They have been offering "CS" users a 40% off on the "much extended"limited time offer.

These are the most probable to upgrade the rest of premiere,ae users that never upgraded to cs is imop because they didnt need too.

Adobes real clients are the stock holders and prospective buyers. We are the lights and mirrors they use to woo them.

Ricardo Marty


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David Mathis
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Mar 27, 2014 at 7:04:53 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "
Adobes real clients are the stock holders and prospective buyers. We are the lights and mirrors they use to woo them."


That analogy I like!


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Mar 27, 2014 at 11:33:53 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "Adobes real clients are the stock holders and prospective buyers. We are the lights and mirrors they use to woo them."

phrase to conjure with there Ricardo.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Mar 27, 2014 at 1:27:20 am

Any increase in price will probably happen after they reach the 4 million dubscriber mark. Forcast by them to be in 2016, If numbers keep as going it will be 1.2 million $10 photoshopers and the rest whatever combination of single apps and full cc-ers then they will have to adjust. Also remember that there are many lockins from last year. I expect cc to disipate shortly after.

Ricardo Marty


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Richard Herd
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Mar 28, 2014 at 11:20:45 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "I expect cc to disipate shortly after."

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/140328/adbe10-q.html


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Dave LaRonde
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Mar 27, 2014 at 4:57:53 pm

I keep saying this....

With CC, Adobe has become like the evil-looking guy in a trench coat who hovers around school yards and says, "Psst! Hey kid! You want to try some meth? It's free....."

"Psst! Hey editor! You want to try some Creatve Cloud? It's cheap right now...."

Dave LaRonde
Promotion Producer
KGAN (CBS) & KFXA (Fox) Cedar Rapids, IA


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David Mathis
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Mar 27, 2014 at 7:09:42 pm

[Dave LaRonde] ""Psst! Hey editor! You want to try some Creatve Cloud? It's cheap right now...."

Dave LaRonde"


Right now perhaps, but later down the toll road is another story. I like to think of the subscription model, in its present form, much like a turnpike with no off ramp. My great state keeps building new ones and convert other roads to the same thing. Each year the rate goes up! Gas is expensive enough, now we have to pay to use the road twice. Grrrrrr


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Dave LaRonde
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Mar 27, 2014 at 7:53:51 pm

David Mathis: “I like to think of the subscription model, in its present form, much like a turnpike with no off ramp.”

Yeah, I just use a drug dealer metaphor: get 'em hooked, then jack up the price. The only outs are rehab or cold turkey.

Dave LaRonde
Promotion Producer
KGAN (CBS) & KFXA (Fox) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Gary Huff
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Mar 31, 2014 at 3:23:11 pm

[Dave LaRonde] "Yeah, I just use a drug dealer metaphor: get 'em hooked, then jack up the price. The only outs are rehab or cold turkey."

So does that make pirates akin to brave DEA agents?


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Dave LaRonde
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Mar 31, 2014 at 5:27:14 pm
Last Edited By Dave LaRonde on Mar 31, 2014 at 5:28:23 pm

Only if you totally buy into what most would consider to be a tongue-in-cheek metaphor, I suppose....

Dave LaRonde
Promotion Producer
KGAN (CBS) & KFXA (Fox) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Gary Huff
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Apr 1, 2014 at 8:32:48 pm

[Dave LaRonde] "Only if you totally buy into what most would consider to be a tongue-in-cheek metaphor, I suppose...."

Why does it have to be a total buy-in? I would assume you would applaud the efforts of the pirates at this point.


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Dave LaRonde
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Apr 1, 2014 at 9:22:57 pm
Last Edited By Dave LaRonde on Apr 2, 2014 at 12:36:07 am

Rather than pirates, how about the Securities and Exchange Commission? Their work is more like that of DEA agents. No, they deal with stocks and insider trading and such. Not applicable.

Well, how about the Better Business Bureau? Nope, they don't have the authority of the law behind them.

Which federal agency comes down like a ton of bricks on monopolistic practices? I forget.

That's about as close as I can come, because Adobe's actions aren't strictly monopolistic. But ask yourself this: if the number of Creative Cloud subscriptions were to suddenly go through the roof, do you think you'd see Adobe continue to offer deals?

Or do you think you might see the cost of subscriptions begin to rise? And then keep rising? After all, there are few truly viable alternatives to quite a few Adobe products. Band-Aids, yes. True heads-up competitors, no.

Although there are many electric utilities out there, you can only get your electricity from one company. Were it not for state utility boards, rest assured that you would pay a lot more for your juice.

But there is no such group with the authority to prevent Adobe from raising its rates. So people who aren't clairvoyant, but who still think they can anticipate what's coming, use alarmist, vilifying metaphors when speaking of the company.

Because we feel that if we don't, every future Adobe user will be a lot worse off than they are now.

Dave LaRonde
Promotion Producer
KGAN (CBS) & KFXA (Fox) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Walter Soyka
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Apr 1, 2014 at 9:56:48 pm

[Dave LaRonde] "Because we feel that if we don't, every future Adobe user will be a lot worse off than they are now."

Looking at the improvements that have been made in Ae/Pr since last year, I feel that I'm better off now than I was a couple years ago.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Dave LaRonde
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Apr 1, 2014 at 11:37:06 pm
Last Edited By Dave LaRonde on Apr 1, 2014 at 11:41:06 pm

Well, you're the very kind of user Adobe intends to attract, Walter, not a small-timer like me!

I suppose that WHEN -- not if -- your electric bill goes up, you grumble, then pay it. The machines don't run without electricity.

I also suppose that WHEN -- not if -- your Adobe subscription goes up, you will also grumble, then pay it. As it stands, the machines have little to do if there are no Adobe products to run.

I hope for your sake you don't have to use the term, "price gouging" when it happens.

And everyone else's sake as well.

Dave LaRonde
Promotion Producer
KGAN (CBS) & KFXA (Fox) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Walter Soyka
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Apr 3, 2014 at 1:46:14 pm

[Dave LaRonde] "I also suppose that WHEN -- not if -- your Adobe subscription goes up, you will also grumble, then pay it. As it stands, the machines have little to do if there are no Adobe products to run."

Depends how much it goes up. I think there is a real limit to how much Adobe can charge before people drop CC en masse.

The machines could be plenty busy on Autodesk products or Foundry products or MAXON products or Apple products.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Peter Wiley
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Apr 2, 2014 at 2:31:55 pm

Actually, any person in the US who has been harmed by anti-competitive practices can sue in federal court to recover damages (so-called "private antitrust enforcement" if you want to know what to Google). Of course that's a long, expensive undertaking, but perhaps some future Adobe Client Association could pool resources and get that done. There are also EU remedies at law as well, I think (and probably more robust than in US law).

One might not win, but one could compel Adobe to produce all their internal documents related to the CC decision, which would make for interesting reading I bet.

Such a suit would have to wait until prices went up, probably, because the trick would be to show economic harm. Colleges and universities could probably show that now as a class of plaintiffs.

Executive Producer
Arbour Media LLC


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Dave LaRonde
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Apr 2, 2014 at 3:57:35 pm

That's good to know... thanks!

A few individuals among the bunch that frequents this forum might just become charter members of that hypothetical Adobe Client Association.

Dave LaRonde
Promotion Producer
KGAN (CBS) & KFXA (Fox) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Gary Huff
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Apr 2, 2014 at 7:30:22 pm

[Dave LaRonde] "But ask yourself this: if the number of Creative Cloud subscriptions were to suddenly go through the roof, do you think you'd see Adobe continue to offer deals?"

You have no way of knowing that one way or the other.

Just because the subscription base would potentially be strong doesn't mean someone can't suddenly lose their entire base when something better comes along. Just ask Myspace.


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Dave LaRonde
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Apr 2, 2014 at 9:10:10 pm
Last Edited By Dave LaRonde on Apr 2, 2014 at 9:12:24 pm

[Gary Huff] "You have no way of knowing that one way or the other."

....and YOU evaded my question.

Personally, I'm of the opinion that when subscriptions reach a certain benchmark set by Adobe and known only to them, the cost of those subscriptions will skyrocket.

Dave LaRonde
Promotion Producer
KGAN (CBS) & KFXA (Fox) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Gary Huff
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Apr 3, 2014 at 2:10:25 am

[Dave LaRonde] "Personally, I'm of the opinion that when subscriptions reach a certain benchmark set by Adobe and known only to them, the cost of those subscriptions will skyrocket."

You think people will just up and pay it if it's $200 a month? No way. I would drop it in a heartbeat.

They can't just skyrocket, people will damn well leave. But it can't remain $50 a month for infinity. Even Amazon had to raise prices for Prime eventually.


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David Smith
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Apr 3, 2014 at 5:54:13 am

When Adobe still had an exit strategy, it was much easier to drop their software and move to something else. Any files you had created, you could still open and use if you needed to while now using the new software you switched to. With subscription as the only option, moving to something else would be much more difficult. You'd either have to be okay with still paying Adobe to access your earlier material or just accept that you couldn't use it. Sure, if Adobe raised prices to $200, you'd probably leave and suffer the consequences, but I bet you they'll be able to raise the price a lot more than they could've before when people could easily leave at any time. And I'm sure people like yourself will pay that hike rather than lose the ability to use your files; I bet you'll even make excuses for them to justify it.

I agree that once they have enough people in their snare, when all the discounts end and people can't leave without losing their work, we're gonna see some significant price hikes.


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Steve Connor
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Apr 3, 2014 at 11:02:22 am

[David Smith] "I agree that once they have enough people in their snare, when all the discounts end and people can't leave without losing their work, we're gonna see some significant price hikes."

I disagree, certainly in the next couple of years I wouldn't expect to see any price hike at all, but if you are the sort of business that regularly needs to re-open old projects then I could see how you might be nervous.

IMHO, I think the price is very good and I've been paying full price since day 1 as I never owned CS.

We do need to see the updates flowing on a regular basis though!

Steve Connor

Class Bully


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Dino Sanacory
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Apr 3, 2014 at 1:45:22 pm

Why do you think we wouldn't see any price hikes at all? You must expect that at some point the price will go up some amount? David's point is one that I agree with, once Adobe has a certain volume of uses under CC, they are then in control of the situation. Historically, if users didn't like or weren't impressed with what Adobe (or any vendor) was doing, they could just stick with what they had. What they had already paid for and fully owned. Under CC, we must pay, always, no matter what Adobe does or doesn't do and no matter how much they change the situation. And what they do will certainly, inevitably, mean price increases. The only question then is when and by how much? That is a question that many of us currently contemplating CC would like an answer to.


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George Ramirez
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Apr 3, 2014 at 11:46:10 pm

sorry david random question but i saw your post on another thread and wonder... if i want to get a quick 30 sec animated vid done that is very type heavy and illustration heavy. almost like a web banner on stereoids but do not want to do it in flash what would you suggest? premiere? after effects? both? i would be using lots of type and content created in illustrator. also are there any gif making programs for mac? than soooooooo much in advance for any info you may have.

;-)

george


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Dave LaRonde
Re: Throwing down the carrot
on Apr 4, 2014 at 4:01:52 pm
Last Edited By Dave LaRonde on Apr 4, 2014 at 5:30:16 pm

From your description, After Effects would be a good choice, but if you've never used it before, you will be FAR BETTER OFF hiring someone to do this. AE simply has too many ways to befuddle the newcomer that you'll get lost within hours.

Okay, not everyone would get lost. If your last name happens to be Hawking or Einstein, you might be okay... but one of them is dead, and the other can't do much of anything without the aid of a computer.

Dave LaRonde
Promotion Producer
KGAN (CBS) & KFXA (Fox) Cedar Rapids, IA


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