FORUMS: list search recent posts

has Adobe thought this out?

COW Forums : Adobe Creative Cloud Debate

<< PREVIOUS   •   VIEW ALL   •   PRINT   •   NEXT >>
Ricardo Marty
has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 17, 2014 at 11:44:06 pm

suppose that in 2016 Adobe in its madness has reached its 4 million subscriber
mark.this would mean that every month they would need to convince at least 100,000 subscribers to continue subscription plus fill what ever attrition it has plus continue to grow. shear madness if doable.

Ricardo marty


Return to posts index

Ricardo Marty
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 12:42:49 am
Last Edited By Ricardo Marty on Mar 18, 2014 at 12:46:21 am

errata,the real numbers should be at least 450,000 per month in and after the year 2016.

Ricardo marty


Return to posts index

Rich Rubasch
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 1:58:36 am

Does this assume current rates? Couldn't they simply double the subscription rate and cut the numbers in half? And by that time you will have enough legacy projects that you cannot stop the subscription.

Think of the Cable companies....I recall $21 per month for basic cable. Where are those days?

Only way to stop the madness is strong competition to stabilize rates...who is that? That is my key fear. Without a check or balance in the mix, what's to keep Adobe from doubling the subscription? Especially once we are all grandfathered in with drives full of legacy projects.

Rich Rubasch
Tilt Media Inc.
Video Production, Post, Studio Sound Stage
Founder/President/Editor/Designer/Animator
http://www.tiltmedia.com


Return to posts index


Chris Pettit
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 2:52:50 am

[Rich Rubasch] "Only way to stop the madness is strong competition to stabilize rates...who is that? That is my key fear. Without a check or balance in the mix, what's to keep Adobe from doubling the subscription? Especially once we are all grandfathered in with drives full of legacy projects."

That's it. The whole game. Protection and perpetuation of the work. Some level of input into the industry that we support and perpetuate with our purchasing dollars and our commitment to formats and standards. Some degree of control as customers over what is rapidly becoming an irreversible monopoly. In a true free market, competition (and customer preferences) should drive this discussion. But not now. Not when a single company, with it's acquisition of lesser competitors, and its self interested growth plan, are dictating how the entire industry advances. We have unquestionably reached a point where free market forces are less able to work. In many ways, we have returned to the days of Oligarchs and Combinations.

Contemplate: Adobe without competition. Life long subscriptions without competition and unlimited subscription rates. Think about it. Either other companies step up eventually, or we will all begin to feel like people in the Ukraine feel.

The equation has not changed: For those who think life long subscriptions to access software (and your work) are a nifty idea, you have plenty of options, be happy.

For those who don't, make SURE your voice is heard.


Return to posts index

Gary Huff
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 3:00:48 am

[Chris Pettit] "Either other companies step up eventually, or we will all begin to feel like people in the Ukraine feel."

That's okay, because you are migrated to Lightworks and Hit Film now, no?


Return to posts index

Chris Pettit
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 3:06:32 am

The part of the discussion where "legacy projects" was mentioned seems to have eluded you Gary


Return to posts index


Gary Huff
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 3:07:22 am

[Chris Pettit] "The part of the discussion where "legacy projects" was mentioned seems to have eluded you Gary"

The part where you yourself mentioned "competition" seems to have eluded you.


Return to posts index

Chris Pettit
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 3:22:41 am

[Gary Huff] "The part where you yourself mentioned "competition" seems to have eluded you."

OK, sounds good. What apps are you recommending I use to open and maintain control over my legacy files (like ones from last week) regarding projects that include the following:

Flash: for touch screen application development, storyboard creation and interactive video application development
AE: for motion graphics, compositing, color, motion blur, OST animation, AEC integration, Trapcode-Magic_Bullet_particle treatment image sequences, AI integration, multilayered PSD integration (just to name a handful?)
AME: Integrated composition endcoding, from PR, and AE and other hybrids, complying to a wide array of formats?
AU: Projects that have integration with PR, AE, etc?

This just touches the surface.

You don't know what you're talking about.


Return to posts index

Gary Huff
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 1:29:59 pm
Last Edited By Gary Huff on Mar 18, 2014 at 1:31:27 pm

[Chris Pettit] "You don't know what you're talking about."

Where in the world has any of the competition ever been able to handle legacy from other packages? If you are worried about future-proofing your work going forward with CC, then you have to deal with it using whatever you can.

Besides, you seem to be saying that there is nothing else out there that does what you need it to do quite like Adobe's suite of products. Is that Adobe's fault? Should Adobe cater to your personal desires regarding how they chose to make money going forward simply because you can't fathom using anything else besides their product?


Return to posts index

Ricardo Marty
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 3:07:07 am

I arrived at this number by using Adobe's estimates of 21k subscribers per week. plus Forbes recent estimate of Adobe's need to increase subscription rate to 30k per week this led me to give Adobe at least 4500000 subscr8 ers who's subscription would end at any given month in year 4 of the cc.

what I am saying is that Adobe will have a hell of a problem trying to convince 450000 subscribers month after month to contiue there subscription. plus filling in for attrition and getting brand new subscribers.

Ricardo marty


Return to posts index

Chris Pettit
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 3:30:41 am

[Ricardo Marty] "what I am saying is that Adobe will have a hell of a problem trying to convince 450000 subscribers month after month to contiue there subscription. plus filling in for attrition and getting brand new subscribers."

In addition, for whatever it's worth, I think the question is largely about how Adobe maintains profitability over time.

In all the surveys and reports about subscriptions so far, I have not seen a single one that evaluates subscriber levels relative to rates. How many of the 399,000 estimated new subscriptions are of the $10 PS only variety? How many are at discounted rates (which Adobe is still offering for some reason). How long can Adobe offer discounts to entice subscribers without running into long term profit margin issues?


Return to posts index

Richard Herd
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 3:58:45 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "hell of a problem trying to convince 450000 subscribers month after month to contiue there subscription"

Why?


Return to posts index

Ricardo Marty
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 4:50:01 pm

if they just have a 10% of loss subscription that would be 40000 people to talk out of quitting plus replenishing all that leave plus acquiring new subscriptions. you can't do that with automatic bot calls. hey would need half of India just for that.

however I think their lost subscription is much more than 10% a Forbes article published a couple of days ago stated that for Adob to keep its pace they need to add 30000 New clients every week, That up from Adobe's estimate of 2
1000

this is 36000 more per month than what was originally estimated,
granted that this could either signify that the subscription drive has lost steam. or that it's losing a lot of customers, maybe both. either way it will become a massive effort to keep the cc machine going.

Ricardo marty


Return to posts index

Aindreas Gallagher
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 7:24:07 pm

there is a kind of a point here tho - no one knows what the effective churn rate is yet.

we overdid the telco comparisons to death back in the day here, but one thing is certain - once they get what they feel is close to their goal size state with churn, they're going to have to start raising the subscription rate. that's how they increase profits.

the reason i'm presuming that has to happen is this isn't a telco - they're basically transforming as much of the original active CS customers into subscribers as they can. that's a very finite number, and for someone like a telco, its tiny - under 10 mill or so to play with. they project getting around 45% within the first half decade of CC.

this isn't like the market for cable or mobile, there are a limited number of new entrants, and a limited number as a subscriber base.

The real problem is if the churn rate is high - the likely annual loss of subscribers - if its anything significantly over 15% for a given annual accounting period, then adobe have to be facing some real problems going forward - because they don't have significant competitor pools to dip into as such really, not another set of mobile subscribers to another service, and not an entire new generation getting ready to start a mobile plan. All the potential numbers available to them to balance churn are quite small in comparison and effectively finite.

At some point, possibly quite soon in the coming years, the attempt to replenish churn has got to get a bit glengarry glenross where they are effectively chasing old leads.

there is also the problem that dealing with churn basically means live special offers of some kind basically in perpetuity - I'm not sure that was ever in the shareholder prospectus at the outset of this.
Adobe's initial financials for CC submitted to the shareholders seem now to be based on extremely rosy revenue per subscriber numbers.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


Return to posts index

Andrew Kimery
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 7:36:35 am

[Rich Rubasch] "Does this assume current rates? Couldn't they simply double the subscription rate and cut the numbers in half? And by that time you will have enough legacy projects that you cannot stop the subscription. "

People sank a whole heck of a lot more than the price of CC into Avid Meridien and/or Adrenaline systems back in the day and still jumped ship for FCP. And remember, back then no Avid hardware meant no Avid software either


[Chris Pettit] "In a true free market, competition (and customer preferences) should drive this discussion."
Not to completely derail this thread, but a true free market is like an anything goes brawl where winning by any means necessary is the name of the game. There's more profit in things like collusion, price fixing and being a monopoly than in competition and building a better mouse trap which is why (in the US) there are laws against things like collusion, price fixing and (illegal) monopolies. ;)

For example, the consolidation of media ownership over the past 30yrs thanks, in large part, to waves of deregulation or, more recently, the 'gentleman's agreement' between major tech companies (Apple, Intel, Google, Adobe and more) to hold down employee wages and not recruit personnel from each other.

Why compete when there's more profit (and power) in conspiring?


Return to posts index

Chris Pettit
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 3:10:53 pm
Last Edited By Chris Pettit on Mar 18, 2014 at 3:12:32 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "
Why compete when there's more profit (and power) in conspiring?"


How true Andrew.

A largely consolidated financial industry nearly ran the worlds economy into the ground with it's "we know whats good for the industry" attitude and deregulated recklessness. And now the risks are worse because there has been even more consolidation in that sector. Companies that own too much of the means of commerce are dangerous, regardless of verticals:

http://www.amazon.com/Too-Big-Fail-Washington-FinancialSystem/dp/0143118242

But then we don't want to get me on my "deregulation" rant then do we?


Return to posts index

John Pale
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 2:56:19 pm

Umm. I get your point, but comparing this to the situation in Ukraine is kind of tasteless hyperbole.
As far as I know, Adobe has not actually shot anyone (not even Aindreas) over Creative Cloud subscriptions.
Compared to what's going on there, our concerns are all rather silly.


Return to posts index

Chris Pettit
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 3:04:56 pm

[John Pale] "Umm. I get your point, but comparing this to the situation in Ukraine is kind of tasteless hyperbole."

I didn't imply that they were on the same scale. And I did say "feel like". The point was to compare the "take it or leave it" implications.

But point well taken, the stakes are much larger there.


Return to posts index

Gary Huff
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 4:29:51 pm

[Chris Pettit] "And I did say "feel like"."

Then you need to check your feelings because they sound way out there.


Return to posts index

Chris Pettit
Re: has Adobe thought this out?
on Mar 18, 2014 at 6:06:24 pm

[Gary Huff] "Then you need to check your feelings because they sound way out there."

But then I wouldn't be able to tweak you and get a response.


Return to posts index

<< PREVIOUS   •   VIEW ALL   •   PRINT   •   NEXT >>
© 2017 CreativeCOW.net All Rights Reserved
[TOP]