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A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea

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Chris Harlan
A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 8:48:36 am

If I look with rose-colored glasses, and disarm my defense mechanisms, it occurs to me that when tools have properly matured, we may actually want to discourage further rapid change to them--change for change's sake--and only have them finessed, varied, and perfected, with occasional bursts of growth. In the traditional model, change drives the purchase cycles, and in immature products, this can be terrific. Improvements drive sales. But, at a certain point of maturity, it becomes change simply to drive sales. Fashion begins to replace functionality, and whole, useful structures can be tossed away--maybe have to be tossed away--to support sales. Yes. Sometimes those new structures can truly be useful, or better, but they can also be simply different, and worse.

So, what about this rent or tithe model? Could it actually be worth paying people to oversee a giant, complicated tool farm--to keep it healthy and clean, move it forward, polish the links and lenses, and help us easily navigate its labyrinthian mass of interconnected programs. Could this become a giant public tool, a worldwide art machine--with a library, supply rooms, research centers, and technicians permanently onsite responding to requests and constantly adding things bit by bit? Maybe rental is the wrong word. Maybe it really is membership. And, maybe it is truly worthwhile paying for a membership in something like that.

The more I think about it, the more I think it really could be. When I look at it that way, I even get excited about it. Yes, there are pitfalls and potential ugliness, but I'm going to think along these lines for awhile, and see where that takes me.


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Gustavo Bermudas
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 9:24:19 am

Well, let's take for example what Autodesk does with Smoke for Mac, they sell the software, yours to keep, but also they sell a subscription, which costs around $500/year. That subscription allows you to get support and to update to the next version, that way R&D keeps being properly funded.

And if you don't pay the subscription plan, the license you bought is still yours.

I just had a weird thought/analogy today, what if suddenly the government tells you you cannot buy anything because from now on everything belongs to the state, you can only rent, what type of government would that be?


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Chris Harlan
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 9:49:55 am

[Gustavo Bermudas] "Well, let's take for example what Autodesk does with Smoke for Mac, they sell the software, yours to keep, but also they sell a subscription, which costs around $500/year. That subscription allows you to get support and to update to the next version, that way R&D keeps being properly funded.

And if you don't pay the subscription plan, the license you bought is still yours.
"


True. Its a different model for a highly specialized tool. There doesn't only need to be one way of doing things. In the example you give, you get five years of much larger, broader creative suite for one year of Smoke. True, you get to keep Smoke, but there is something to be said for getting five years out of a tool. How long are you going to hang onto Smoke before you upgrade? Maybe Smoke is a better deal for you, but I think you can see why 5 years of the entire CC might be a better deal for someone else.


[Gustavo Bermudas] "I just had a weird thought/analogy today, what if suddenly the government tells you you cannot buy anything because from now on everything belongs to the state, you can only rent, what type of government would that be?"

You'd be living under a totalitarian regime. But why on earth do you think a business is supposed to be operating like a government? Are you planning on becoming a citizen of Autodesk?


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Frank Gothmann
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 9:53:22 am

You can only buy Autodesk subscription if you already have or buy a regular license. Ie you pay full licence price and then the subscription price is on top of that. Ie. this is more like a maintenance free. Pixelfarm does something very similar, and its a nice model but it nevertheless requires you to put a large chunk of cash on the table upfront.

------
"You also agree that you will not use these products for... the development, design, manufacture or production of nuclear, missiles, or chemical or biological weapons."
iTunes End User Licence Agreement


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Tim Kolb
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 11:30:30 am

[Frank Gothmann] "You can only buy Autodesk subscription if you already have or buy a regular license. Ie you pay full licence price and then the subscription price is on top of that."

Yes, I was going to say that this example would be more akin to Adobe charging what they already charge for the software perpetual license, and then paying the subscription in addition to that...the old Avid/Media 100 system in the 90s...

How is THAT better?

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Gustavo Bermudas
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 7:23:39 pm

[Tim Kolb] "How is THAT better?"


YOURS.TO.KEEP

Also, an asset versus an expense

The subscription is only optional if you want to upgrade to the next one and get support. Now you're gonna say Adobe support is great?
Besides, $3500 license (expensive, yes) against $500 for upgrade to next version, when it comes out (not per year).

Adobe's ratios per upgrade are much higher though.

Regardless, a lot of people just want to have the newest version, even if they'll never use the new features, it's just glitz.
You'd be surprised how many big post productions studios in Hollywood are still in CS5.

It seems to that Adobe is in desperate need for cash, I just logged in to check the creative cloud on their website and I was bombarded with chat agents wanted me to register right at that moment, super pushy, I actually called to cancel.


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 7:40:58 pm

Ah...Gustavo...a chat offer always pops up when you go to the Adobe website. They're offering info if you have any questions - just x out if you don't want it. It's called "customer service"...

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Gustavo Bermudas
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 8:04:30 pm

[Joseph W. Bourke] "hey're offering info if you have any questions - just x out if you don't want it. It's called "customer service"..."

LOL, nope, it's actually pushy sales technique, when I really needed support they were really hard to find, I spent 2 hours on the phone, and they didn't have a clue.

But it's ok, you're an Adobe fanboi and I respect that, just like to call things they way I see it, just like you do all the time, could I be wrong? Absolutely, but who's to say? You? me don't think so


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 8:11:46 pm

Oh...fanboi...you cut me to the quick Gustavo...While most of my business is run on Adobe products, they're just a tool...I also use Autodesk products, DAZ products, and whatever it takes to get my projects done...I also OWN the CS6 discs, so I'm not locked in to anything here...I just like the ring of truth...which you seem to bypass when it's convenient to your argument...

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Gustavo Bermudas
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 8:19:00 pm

[Joseph W. Bourke] "I just like the ring of truth...which you seem to bypass when it's convenient to your argument..."

That's ok, but if you'd like to save a lot of money in therapy I'd recommend go and read your posts, mostly of what you pass your judgment on others is EXACTLY what you do.

BTW, I can guarantee you that none of us has the truth of what's going on with Adobe, we're just talking.


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 8:47:28 pm

I have to agree with you there, Gustavo. I have no idea what Adobe is thinking, but I like their approach to customer service. I worked at a broadcast facility for fourteen years, and we could pick up the phone, and talk to an Adobe rep just about any time. They didn't always have an answer, but they told us when they didn't, and got back to us.

Just because we don't agree, doesn't mean you have to be insulting...I apologize for the truth comment...it's your opinions I have the problem with, and you're entitled to them...

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Kevin Monahan
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 11, 2013 at 12:23:09 am

[Gustavo Bermudas] "I spent 2 hours on the phone, and they didn't have a clu"

Gustavo,
First of all, sorry to hear about your experience on the phone. Next time, you might want to check out support over Chat. It's a lot faster.

Kevin

Kevin Monahan
Social Support Lead
Adobe After Effects
Adobe Premiere Pro
Adobe Systems, Inc.
Follow Me on Twitter!


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Tim Kolb
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 11:18:34 am

[Chris Harlan] "[Gustavo Bermudas] "I just had a weird thought/analogy today, what if suddenly the government tells you you cannot buy anything because from now on everything belongs to the state, you can only rent, what type of government would that be?"

You'd be living under a totalitarian regime. But why on earth do you think a business is supposed to be operating like a government? Are you planning on becoming a citizen of Autodesk?"


Technically I believe Gustavo is referring to communism.

Of course then there would be no stock market in which he could go on hoping that Adobe could go broke in because of how they've wronged him...

(sigh)

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Tim Kolb
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 12:05:16 pm

Chris...it sounds like you might be thinking about this very similar to how all this looks to me.

FYI...It's subtle, but I sense this may not be the majority mindset on this forum.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Karl Soule
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 1:48:32 pm

Thanks for that, Chris. Yes, if you look at what Adobe has done with the Cloud, it is VERY much like a membership, with new bits and pieces getting added to it all the time. Right now, most of the 1st year Cloud features are very much geared towards the Photoshop/Illustrator/InDesign/ web dev users, with PSD/AI/ID file sharing with clients, including a special viewer to turn on/off layers. If you start to think about where (and this is pure speculation on my part) Adobe could take the Cloud for video users, it becomes a really interesting conversation. What would you like to see as some video-related Cloud features?

The first CC release has some great preference sync features for people who jump from one workstation to another - and that is literally the beginning. The added training is another step - exclusive, in-depth training is a part of the membership. Web hosting. Building a portfolio with Behance. Fonts for AE/Ps/Pr users to download. You start to look at what's already there, and there is some real value, in addition to the applications.

One small thing I want to share as well - the programmers who code tools like AE and Premiere Pro are users as much as you guys. Several of the Pr team actually own and use RED ONE and EPIC cameras, for example, and regularly post on RED specific forums. They're really excited about this change, since it means they can be in a "run-fast" development mode, getting new features out more often, instead of holding everything for 12-18 months at a time.


DISCLAIMER: Yes, I work for Adobe.

Karl Soule'
blogs.adobe.com/VideoRoad
k soule (@) adobe (period) com
Twitter: karlsoule


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andy lewis
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 3:20:50 pm

I'd be willing to believe in the possible benefits of the cloud model except I haven't read about a single interesting feature that couldn't be replicated with:

1. A USB stick
2. The internet

I'm excited about Premiere Pro CS7 so I'd love to be convinced otherwise. As someone said in another thread though - there is no cloud. The software is still on your computer. Nothing substantially new is being offered. This is a massively heavy handed anti-piracy initiative.


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Tim Kolb
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 4:29:01 pm

[andy lewis] "This is a massively heavy handed anti-piracy initiative."

This is speculative, and I doubt Adobe has any delusions of eliminating piracy (though if I was them, I'd enjoy taking a hard whack at it whenever possible).

I'm not sure why someone in business couldn't visualize what a night mare it would be to take in the vast majority of your income across an entire product line in one short period of a couple months, and then be spending money like crazy the entire rest of the year...it's crazy.

Like it or not, Adobe is owned by shareholders and if you're an owner, leveling out income so it isn't so erratic is a very appealing idea.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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andy lewis
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 5:04:53 pm

If the objective is greater income stability why can I not pay in advance for a year? Income doesn't get much more stable than that. My assumption (and of course I might be wrong - what do I know?) is it's because without monthly billing, a monthly internet activation would be considered unacceptable by too many people.

Sorry to repeat a point but there doesn't seem to be any substantial cloud-based product being offered. Nothing. We can all speculate about what Adobe might come up with but this will presumably be after the fact. This looks like it started with a "how can we get people to give us money all year round and discourage piracy" conversation. Everything else is just marketing.

If I'm wrong and this started with Adobe people dreaming of fantastic new frontiers of integration and sharing - where are those products?


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Tim Kolb
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 5:13:20 pm

[andy lewis] "If the objective is greater income stability why can I not pay in advance for a year?"

I would agree that would be a popular way for most of us to go.

As far as "cloud" services, etc...I'm less enamored with all that anyway for my situation, so I don't measure the value in the subscription based on that...but I take your point.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Dave LaRonde
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 6:37:32 pm

[Karl Soule] "...they can be in a "run-fast" development mode, getting new features out more often, instead of holding everything for 12-18 months at a time."

Unless your RED camera example is preventing me from seeing the larger picture, I thought this mechanism already existed under the perpetual license model. They're called updates.

Dave LaRonde
Former Sr. Promotion Producer
KCRG-TV (ABC) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Sandeep Sajeev
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 12, 2013 at 10:54:34 am

[Karl Soule] "They're really excited about this change, since it means they can be in a "run-fast" development mode, getting new features out more often, instead of holding everything for 12-18 months at a time."

This 12-18 month cycle has been a direct result of Adobe's decision to start packaging things in Suites. If the products were standalone (as they used to be), then there'd be no issue in releasing an upgrade to Photoshop now, and an upgrade for Illustrator, say in June.

Yes?

I signed up for the Cloud trial a couple of days ago. And I've watched all the Creative Cloud videos outlining the benefits to Video Pros, and I'm underwhelmed. The tools are great, but as others have mentioned, there is very little that seems like it should be Cloud Specific.

[Karl Soule] "The added training is another step - exclusive, in-depth training is a part of the membership. Web hosting. Building a portfolio with Behance"

This is great for people just starting out. In fact, if you're starting a business today then all these features make sense as cumulatively they offer decent value. But Web Hosting/Behance are probably unnecessary for those that have Wiredrive/Interdubs/MediaTemple or even VimeoPro accounts.

Honestly, having played around with the Creative Cloud, I like Story Plus a lot, and I want to pay for that and Photoshop - But I can't do that as Story Plus for whatever reason is not available in my region.

So regardless of all the Cloud hoopla, we're still dealing with regions - like the old days, when software came in boxes.

Sandeep.


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Jim Wiseman
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 6:14:21 pm

Add a buyout option to that idea, and I might be interested. Without ownership at some point, you have no control. Only Adobe, driven by their commitment to their stockholders, have it.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1,Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1, Premiere Pro 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Avid MC, Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 8Gb SSD, G5 Quadcore PCIe


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Tim Kolb
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 6:23:39 pm

[Jim Wiseman] "Add a buyout option to that idea, and I might be interested. "

No sarcasm...just a question.

How many months should one have to pay before getting to keep a permanent license? 3? 6? Would paying for 12 months be acceptable?

You aren't suggesting that you should be able to pay one month and keep the software...or are you?

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Dave LaRonde
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 6:47:25 pm

[Tim Kolb] "You aren't suggesting that you should be able to pay one month and keep the software...or are you?"

Highly doubtful, sir.

I read it as having the option to pay a good deal of money, for which you'd perhaps get a snippet of software that removes the necessity for monthly validation under the subscription model... as I understand it.

Dave LaRonde
Former Sr. Promotion Producer
KCRG-TV (ABC) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Tim Dowse
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 8:13:18 pm

@ Chris Harlan
A membership model sounds wonderful, but membership payments are usually for organizations whose sole responsibility is to the membership. If Adobe was some kind of mutual organization, this would be perfect. They do, however, have a responsibility to their shareholders to make profit. This is what makes people suspicious of the model. Now, while Adobe are doing fine, it's all good. Later, when they're struggling, some "rescue" CEO could decimate the developers to cut costs, reasoning that they've already got the subscribers by the balls anyway.

My personal view is in agreement with Tim Kolb, as stated on another thread:
Adobe's competitors will be working on making transitions away from Adobe as easy as possible with file importers and converters, etc. to make it easier to come out of the cloud as that will be seen as a definite opportunity...so there is a chance that Adobe will be on the bubble as opposed to off the hook if their competitors play for keeps.

So I'm not so worried about it. But I can see why people are.


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Chris Harlan
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 10, 2013 at 9:57:29 pm

[Tim Dowse] "A membership model sounds wonderful, but membership payments are usually for organizations whose sole responsibility is to the membership. If Adobe was some kind of mutual organization, this would be perfect."

Tim! Yes, I agree with you. This is potentially one of the pit falls. There are successful profit-based memberships, like gyms for instance, but it is certainly an issue. Here's the thing, though: we are not creating this situation from scratch. Adobe is a company, and does own the software. We have to work with what we've got.

[Tim Dowse] "They do, however, have a responsibility to their shareholders to make profit. This is what makes people suspicious of the model."

Agreed. And, I think this is at the crux of what I'm saying above. Adobe is compelled to continue to make money off of their property. That's who they are. That's what they do. It is their very nature, and, the very nature of the structure that most of us are functioning in. The dilemma, from their point of view, is how do we continue to earn? My thought is that the membership model allows them to be more respectful to their creation. The alternative is to turn it into fashion and create need where there isn't any.

[Tim Dowse] "Now, while Adobe are doing fine, it's all good. Later, when they're struggling, some "rescue" CEO could decimate the developers to cut costs, reasoning that they've already got the subscribers by the balls anyway."

That clearly is a potential future issue. And as you and Tim point out, competitors should be able to intervene. But, yes, there are reasons for trepidation, though nothing is future proof.

The thing is, we're not discussing a government. We're not discussing a social order. We are discussing something where our only decision is whether to participate or not. True, if we organize and enough of us hold back, we might be able to force Adobe's hand into scrapping CC. It is remotely possible that public pressure could dissuade them.

But do we really want that? Do we want these tools to become fashion-like? Do we want to encourage endless and arbitrary change in the name of sales? Software is a relatively new product that may turn out to have different viability requirements than we are used to. I think its worth considering.


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Tim Dowse
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 11, 2013 at 1:42:49 am

Yes, Chris, I think we agree on basically everything.

[Chris Harlan] My thought is that the membership model allows them to be more respectful to their creation. The alternative is to turn it into fashion and create need where there isn't any.

I perhaps didn't recognize your point earlier in the way I should have. This is certainly an useful perspective, and I think the fashion comparison is a good one. That said, as long as Adobe are trying to grow their membership, they will still be developing bling/fashion features. But the nature of the organization is what gives most people pause, I think.

[Chris Harlan]We are discussing something where our only decision is whether to participate or not

I completely agree with you. If I was starting a business, I'd say the risks are far outweighed by the value of the product offering. If I did let my membership expire, I wouldn't find it a huge issue to build a one-off monthly cost into my client fee for going back to old projects. But as stated earlier, I suspect third party options will make even this unnecessary.

And as a membership organization, paying members are likelier to have an even bigger sway in Adobe's thinking that customers do now (imagine the effect of an online "petition" when signed by a huge swathe of the paying membership, just as an example).


My main concern is that this creates a big enough fuss that people start to question whether Adobe is going to be an "industry standard" in the way that it looked like it was becoming. I for one want to use software the is very widely used in the industry, because it makes my expertise more transferable. I'd hate it if Adobe lost ground, because I've become pretty proficient in CS since 2011, and I really love the software. So I'd like to see Adobe trying to compromise somewhat, just to keep people happy.

My preferred suggestion is some kind of loyalty-based scheme where after let's say 5 years of continued membership, you have the option to stop paying, and retain the software you were using at the moment you stopped paying. The will give Adobe an additional incentive to keep developing to retain loyal users, and give users an incentive to keep paying so that they can keep their loyalty status. They will be safe in the knowledge that their work can be kept if ever they do cancel, but they won't because they'll enjoy the service and constant updates and new features. They'll keep paying then, just like they kept upgrading in the past.


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Dave LaRonde
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 11, 2013 at 8:54:05 pm

[Chris Harlan] "Could it actually be worth paying people to oversee a giant, complicated tool farm--to keep it healthy and clean, move it forward, polish the links and lenses, and help us easily navigate its labyrinthian mass of interconnected programs."


When such a thing has never, ever happened before, it takes a great leap of faith to think that it will happen in the future. There is a track record to be considered.

At the moment, it is little more than "relying on the kindness of strangers", a recurring phrase in a certain Tennessee Williams play.

Dave LaRonde
Former Sr. Promotion Producer
KCRG-TV (ABC) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Chris Harlan
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 12, 2013 at 12:37:33 am

[Dave LaRonde] "When such a thing has never, ever happened before, it takes a great leap of faith to think that it will happen in the future. There is a track record to be considered.
"


Dave, I hear you, and I might agree. I don't know. I wasn't joking about looking through rose-colored glasses and disarming my defense mechanisms to see it that way. But the conundrum is still there, however I look at it.

[Dave LaRonde] "At the moment, it is little more than "relying on the kindness of strangers", a recurring phrase in a certain Tennessee Williams play."

Oh, sure. Throw Blanche Dubois at me. I once played Steve (the downstairs neighbor) in a production, and so, was on stage every night to witness Blanche deliver that line. I also had the last line of the show a few minutes later, which might also be appropriate for everything that has been going on the last couple of days: "This games called five card stud." Blackout


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Christian Schumacher
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 12, 2013 at 3:10:28 am

[Chris Harlan] "The more I think about it, the more I think it really could be. When I look at it that way, I even get excited about it. Yes, there are pitfalls and potential ugliness, but I'm going to think along these lines for awhile, and see where that takes me."

What if Adobe really don't have a choice there? This looks like a heavy handed bet and they're all in now -Grow up or stagnate(AKA perish)? Certainly this approach has the potential to drive them forward. What else would do it, uh? And on the consumer side, how are the end users going to effectively expand their businesses and benefit from this gamble in a timely manner? That's what everyone is asking nowadays, of course. My take is there wouldn't be any bet to make otherwise, because If they kept that same old M.O. they would have gotten that pesky slow and certain death to deal with, and that's no good! Companies need to survive so in this case, had they slowed down enough and waited too long for a significant change, they would be facing extinction in a very near future. And I rhetorically ask: Who would have wanted that? That's why we have no choice but to support them, so either we are all in or all out. And If we didn't get CC, maybe then we would have no Adobe at all. What's worse? No guarantees on that gamble however, but to grow up is the only game in town, so far. We've got to ask ourselves: Do we want to grow up with Adobe? Or not ;-)


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 12, 2013 at 2:10:16 pm

You may have a valid point there, Christian. If so, I would much rather pay via a method I don't like (as I've said here way too many times, I own the CS6 Master Collection, so I can afford to watch this all unfold without much fear), and have the company thrive, than have the company die a slow death, which always means slow or no product development, then eol for both products and company (look at the slow death AVID has been going through).

I'm all for competition - it keeps companies from becoming lazy - and I'd hate to see AVID go away, or for Apple to drop the very hardware which enabled them to become a huge gadget company. If you're the only game in town, you get fat and sassy - I think there's enough valid competition right now to keep Adobe listening to what's going on, and maybe shift the model enough to please the users, and not have too much egg on their face.

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Jim Wiseman
Re: A few thoughts on why it might be a good idea
on May 12, 2013 at 4:03:40 pm

If the amount of negative reaction I see here and certainly all over the web is any indication, I think Adobe will be in more financial trouble with the subscription model they are pushing with Creative Cloud than if they stay with something similar to their current licensed ownership. They are bringing in around 4 Billion in sales yearly.

I think you are more likely to lose your Adobe tools if they move to this new model. If people don't buy in, or buy in and don't like it, the result will be the same. Loss of income for Adobe, and the potential loss of your tools because of the damage it will do to the company. The potential downside of CC is tremendous, not just for users, which I think is a given many have realized, but also for Adobe's dominant position, possibly even their survival as a relevant player.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1,Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1, Premiere Pro 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Avid MC, Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 8Gb SSD, G5 Quadcore PCIe


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