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Ricardo Marty
Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 12, 2013 at 3:30:43 pm

Adobe Systems (ADBE) stock has risen nearly 50% this year on investor enthusiasm for the company's transition to an Internet cloud-based business. Wall Street will be looking for continued strength in Adobe's Creative Cloud and Marketing Cloud offerings when it reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on Thursday.

While Adobe continues to attract customers to its core Creative Cloud business, at least one survey indicates that satisfaction with the product is declining and new customers might be harder to come by.

Baird Equity Research analyst Steven Ashley conducted a survey of 50 Adobe customers recently to gauge their views. The percentage using Creative Cloud rose to 46% this quarter from 32% in Q3 and 25% in Q2, he said in a report Monday. But the share of customers saying they're very satisfied with Creative Cloud fell to 18% this quarter from 33% in Q3 and 52% in Q2.


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Also, the percentage of Adobe customers saying they plan "never" to move to the Creative Cloud offering increased to 31% this quarter from 18% in Q3 and 22% in Q2.

"While this response likely still contains a good deal of emotion (i.e., lingering anger), it also suggests moving the last entrenched segment of individuals to (Creative Cloud) might take some time," Ashley wrote.

Adobe says it plans to continue offering its legacy licensed software product, Creative Suite 6, indefinitely. But it will not be upgraded with new features and services. New technologies will be offered in Adobe's subscription-based product, the Creative Cloud.

The Creative Cloud includes all of Adobe's familiar products for creative professionals, including Photoshop and Illustrator.

The Baird survey focused on individual users of Adobe products, both freelancers and creative agencies. Those customers have been offered the Creative Cloud since fiscal Q2 2012. Corporate users — teams and entire enterprises — were offered the Creative Cloud in Q1 and Q3 respectively.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Adobe to earn 32 cents a share excluding items on sales of $1.03 billion. That would translate to year-over-year declines of 48% and 11% respectively.

The move to a cloud business model holds the promise of higher lifetime revenue per customer, as users switch to paying a monthly subscription fee rather than buying software products outright and using them indefinitely. But the company's top and bottom lines will take a short-term hit as customers stop paying for software upfront.

For fiscal Q1, analysts are forecasting Adobe to earn 34 cents per share minus items on sales of $1.02 billion. That would translate to a year-over-year decrease of 3% in EPS and a 1% increase in sales.

Adobe stock fell 1.2% in the stock market today, to 54.65. The stock http://news.investors.com/121113-682544-adobe-systems-set-to-report-q4-earn...

Tech Spending Survey Positive For Adobe, Oracle, Salesforce.com

Adobe Leaps To All-Time High On Cloud Progress

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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 12, 2013 at 5:43:20 pm
Last Edited By Rainer Schubert on Dec 12, 2013 at 6:03:51 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "on investor enthusiasm for the company's transition to an Internet cloud-based business"



This so called "Cloud" isn´t a cloud.


"Adobe" only using this Renaming to jump on the hype around cloud-business.
Can see, that cloud-services make sense in some parts of business.
But adding a few "cloudy" gimmicks (like synchronization or a little bit online-storage (other companies are giving away for free)) to a Software Suite doesn´t make it a cloud-service.
All the Apps are running local as before.
As written: The thing behind this so called "cloud" is to generate more income/revenue per user. Nothing else.
There are NO advantages for the users (others than a "feeling cheap" entrance for low-budgeted & the fast delivery of Beta-Upgrades).
Can´t believe that WallStreet will be as uniformed....

But interesting numbers.
Espec. that of dissatisfaction & "we never plan to move to this so called "cloud""
(The discussions about the so called "cloud" on "Adobes" own forums are a horror-story.)

Wonder if all the discounts (they have to give on this so called "cloud") are part of their financial plans.
Every bet, that their income will drop much more than thought, as many of this offerings will take effect over the coming years.
(You can buy a 3 year Team license for half of the price here in Germany)

But I think, Adobe will tell WallStreet an other "overwhelming" story today.
May be they will reach their target of "cloud" users.
May be, WallStreet shouts "Hallelujah" & is making a +7% step again.
But income will not increase as fast
(...if this so called "cloud" will not be much more expensive in future - what, on the other hand, makes it harder to bring more people into dependency).

Keep CS alive as long as possible. Make it the XP of Adobe.
Only a missing income can move "Adobe" back to reality.


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David Mathis
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 13, 2013 at 6:56:32 am

Feels to me that nearly every large business sees their customers as a source of revenue and nothing more. Just love hearing, "Your call is important to us, please continue to hold."


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 18, 2013 at 5:27:50 pm

The investors are buying on a promise. its the stuff of bubbles.

Its another type of junk investment.
How many investments like this have fizzled.

Adobe is banking on intangibles like the market stability . If things go wrong like the dot com, 9/11 and the bubble burst so will the cloud.
Not to mention competition in a year the editing landscape could be very different.

4 million they say? with all the discounts they need to push the cloud its going to be an empty victory if the reach those numbers.

Ricardo Marty


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 18, 2013 at 5:52:59 pm

I think also.
They made their 1.4 Mil Cloud users with giving discounts (some of them for years).
And only with that.
How often they told: Hurry up, limited time offer!
(And I don´t believe, there are MIllions of former users outside, who are willing to "come in")

Facts are:
In 2013 (also in Q4) their income was based most on selling of PERPETUAL licenses (!)
Their net. income fell from 833 (2012) to 290 (2013).
Operating income went from 1,180,191 (2012) to 422,723 (2013)
All they give are (self-made) estimations and promises.
Calling their business SAS and Cloud-Business.
And WallStreet shouts Hallelujah!

If they really can bring 4 Mil. to this so called "cloud" at the end, they have to give discounts through the next years.
Wonder if this is also a part of their financial plans!? And if their plans will work under this circumstances?
And I also wonder if they get away with this.

Meanwhile I´m of the opinion, that there are great financial interests behind.
I think, the SW industry wants to establish "rented" software.
To hard to bring in features, the users want to pay for.
And that´s especially hard for companies as big as Adobe or MS.

But after all, I don´t understand, how WallStreet works.
Investors can´t be as stupid as it seems to be.

Or?


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 18, 2013 at 6:01:43 pm

Most of the investors don't know how the content creation industry works.
They just know that adobe is a big,big company with monopoly in some areas so they think with their hope and greed and not with facts.

They are blinded with prospectus, power-points, big names, targeted articles, journalist for hire, its a big hype machine trying to influence not only investors but also content creators and all those in the field.

I for my part am seeing a king without clothes.

Ricardo Marty


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Peter Wiley
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 13, 2013 at 7:46:36 pm

Then there's this:

http://www.studiodaily.com/2013/12/adobe-creative-cloud-subscriptions-hit-1...

Executive Producer
Arbour Media LLC


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David Mathis
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 13, 2013 at 8:26:49 pm

The best part of the article was in reference to how high the customer satisfaction was. Are you kidding me? What survey was used to make that statement?


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Ridley Walker
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 14, 2013 at 9:00:40 pm

[David Mathis] "The best part of the article was in reference to how high the customer satisfaction was. Are you kidding me? What survey was used to make that statement?"

A survey of CC subscribers I would assume. Why survey non-subscribers at all?

It appears to be working for Adobe according to the article, they're making more money.

"Per-user revenue dipped slightly in the quarter, officials said, owing in part to that Photoshop promotion, but overall "it continues to be more than what we got under the old perpetual model," Garrett said."

More than they got under the perpetual model.

The dilemma any software publisher faces is a diminishing rate of return on upgrades of mature products. We all recognize bloatware, adding unnecessary features to an app in order to sell an upgrade? Look at MS Word, or even Photoshop.

I imagine that Photoshop CS4 serves most users as well as CC, there's little incentive to upgrade, and therefor no revenue for Adobe. The video apps are adding significant features, unlike the design apps, but they'll mature in a few years as well, and the adoption rate will decline in tandem.

As much as I disike it and am resisting it, I think in the long-run Adobe had little choice but to move to a subscription based service.

However each of us does have a choice.


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 15, 2013 at 9:44:28 pm

[Ridley Walker] "I think in the long-run Adobe had little choice but to move to a subscription based service."

Subscription? Maybe. Subscription *only*? I don't think so.

[Ridley Walker] "However each of us does have a choice."

Yep, and until Adobe offers a meaningful exit plan, they will continue losing customers. Eventually Wall Street will notice.

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David Mathis
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 16, 2013 at 5:41:56 am

[David Lawrence] "[Ridley Walker] "I think in the long-run Adobe had little choice but to move to a subscription based service."

Subscription? Maybe. Subscription *only*? I don't think so.

[Ridley Walker] "However each of us does have a choice."

Yep, and until Adobe offers a meaningful exit plan, they will continue losing customers. Eventually Wall Street will notice.
"


I can understand Adobe going with a subscription model but subscription only I do not agree with. I am willing to upgrade every two years or sooner as needs require. I am also willing to rent software on an as need basis. I do not like being forced into a subscription only model with the risk of losing access to my project files if I no longer feel the need to continue the membership. Subscription plan does work for some but not all.


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Richard Herd
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 16, 2013 at 10:31:43 pm

[David Lawrence] "they will continue losing customers"

They will get plenty of graduating students, both high school and university, in the media and graphic arts.


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Steve Brame
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 16, 2013 at 10:35:09 pm

Something I've not seen, is a discussion of the effect of the subscription model on pirating.

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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 16, 2013 at 11:05:15 pm

An argument I´ve often heard during the "cloud" discussion:
"Adobe used piracy to get the number one position in digital industry".
They gave away "Student" Versions for years without a real approval.
They didn´t track piracy really.
And now they take "piracy" as an argument for this so called "cloud"

I know, there are already existing pirated copies - but it´s not as easy to instal and use them as before.
Also (naturally) they can´t be delivered with fast delivered "upgrades".

But I wouldn´t like to make piracy an part of the discussion.
I will never use pirated SW at all.
This so called "cloud" makes it a bit harder to create & use pirated versions - that´s all.


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 16, 2013 at 10:54:08 pm
Last Edited By Rainer Schubert on Dec 16, 2013 at 11:06:02 pm

I really don´t think so.
My daughter is studying graphics and Adobe lost it´s image in total (among students).
She said, that alternative products are used like never before.
Also pirated versions are already in use.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 16, 2013 at 11:25:14 pm
Last Edited By Ricardo Marty on Dec 16, 2013 at 11:27:05 pm

I think Adobe will loose its web clients (designers)

Many of its video clientele are just hanging by ae until something comes up.

Adobe main grab is in print and that will probably erode.

Of course the the potential of start-ups seems another possibility for them but this is a fragile segment.

Students for the most part tend towards apple and if fcpx starts getting the message i am sure that the cloud will condense way much.

The question is how far can adobe develop its premiere before it becomes bloatware?

Nobody likes to feel tied-uo in specially creatives

Ricardo Marty


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 17, 2013 at 2:02:53 am

i think adobe think they are in a very secure timeless position. I think they are one of the oldest software managers on the field, and they have taken an aggressive position on their remaining secure assets.

I think they have worked incredibly hard to get to 1.4 million out of the 9 million CS suites - 4 million might be beyond them but maybe 3 and a half will do them.

ultimately its hard to know what they're for - they've effectively given up on coming up with anything new and they're palpably terrified of the PS dollar -
they'll offer them literally anything.

walls street is being nice to them now, but thats like saying a shark nibbling your leg is in a good mood.

adobe are are deliberately ignoring any broad compact with their user base and shooting for a far reduced number to monetise for historical assets like PS AE and ID. and they have aggressive monetisation models in case anyone is confused. they absolutely have to have that. its a broadly copper stripped down company now bar the current engineer update wave. the support is currently budgeted at ten dollars.

thats kind of fine, but why they think they don't get torn apart by broader forces once they cede ground for the other six to seven million rejected tail is beyond me.

video people fond of premiere are not going to save the stasis rental rump of adobe.

one way or another the CEO is burning a thirty year 11M customer house down here,
and they actually can't realistically whip the quarter scale shack left behind for enough for cash to compensate.

adobe were always five year scale morons to go here the way they did. because we all now kind of want them challenged and damaged.
In the sense that we would greet the new future that rides over their dead landlord adobe broken backs.

tad grim eh? sod them anyway.

in footballing terms, adobe appears to have had a bad manager. a megalomaniacal manager even.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Richard Herd
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 16, 2013 at 11:44:59 pm

I guess this proves we know different people :)


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 17, 2013 at 1:16:40 pm

...or its because the prices in EU are much higher than in the US.
43 $ a month (here) are a high price level for students (you´ll get nearby a complete Version of Photoline for one month of this so called "cloud").
Other companies have much better offerings or are giving the software away for free (for students - like MAXONs Cinema 4D).
Also Open Source SW (like Blender - which got very useful over the last years - or GIMP) are very popular.


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Richard Herd
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 18, 2013 at 5:04:51 pm

WOW! That's spendy! But less than a smart phone, by a long way.
Students get student pricing for 6 months, which is US$30.


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 18, 2013 at 5:26:49 pm

..a month.

May be less than a smart phone (which is at least more important at that age)
But much too much to get access to your work for a month.
(as nearby nobody needs all the apps - a former edu-license of a Suite was the price of a 10 month membership. But with "lifetime" access to work)

Price is not the main concern. Again and again.

If Adobe is begging for money - OK, can have it.
But:
They have to give me access to my clients files without further costs.
They have to give me the CHOICE to leave/change SW without losing (free access to) my creations.

Elsewise: NO GO!


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 17, 2013 at 2:29:43 am

[Richard Herd] "They will get plenty of graduating students, both high school and university, in the media and graphic arts."

Yes but it won't be enough to make up for the millions of customers they're leaving behind! ;)

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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe Creative Cloud dissatisfaction grows with subscribers
on Dec 18, 2013 at 12:20:48 pm

Espec. the comments...


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