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Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications

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Chris Pettit
Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 3, 2013 at 2:12:48 am

Here we go again, another CC Creative Cow thread has exploded, (previous thread) just like others . And it's not because people on this forum don't have other things to do. In my estimation, everyone on this forum is a working professional currently using Adobe products to make a living.

So can we at least put to bed the ridiculous notion that "eventually this will all die down"? That talking point has been promoted repeatedly since May, on this and other forums, and even recently among respected contributors. Enough already. This debate is not going anywhere. It's fundamental. It's core to how everyone does business and creates their work.

It seems to me, as we head towards the end of a damn strange year, that no matter what happens in 2014, there are a few possible outcomes, feel free to add yours if you feel I missed something:

1. Adobe wins enough subscriptions long term to tell all of us to "..f.." ourselves. Wall Street continues to rejoice. Other big software companies begin to stick their toes in the "subscription or kiss our ass" waters. A new paradigm begins with no end in sight. For those that love the new way of doing business, and see no problems with renting software: happiness. Those of us opposed to the scheme migrate to other competitors tools over time, inform our clients (and vendors) of a new workflow, create that new workflow and live with the new reality, never giving Adobe another dime of our money. (Or of course, some of us will hold our nose and subscribe to that which we oppose, resenting the process for all of recorded time because we perceive that we have no choice).

2. Adobe's subscription-only scheme begins to fail. Subscription numbers slow (over time) as the list of pissed off subscribers begin to realize that constantly being at the mercy of credit card connections and defaulting to "trial mode" is no way to access core software tools under deadline pressure (for evidence of this take a brief tip-toe through support forums and the CC FB pages). In addition the natural "churn" that occurs when so many of Adobe's users never previously purchased the software begins to catch up with Adobe when casual users begin to tire of the $50 a month fees. And that's on top of the large group of people like myself who completely (and for all time) reject renting software without an exit strategy. Adobe eventually capitulates, hits the reset and offers either CC or PL as options. The good old days return.

3. Adobe eventually realizes it needs the goodwill of ALL of it's long term customers, as well as the newbies, instead of telling everyone to "take it or leave it", and starts a dialog on how to find middle ground. Even if you think software subscriptions are a great idea, wouldn't it be in everyone's interest that we all come together as creative community instead of blasting each other on blogs and forums? I'm sick and tired of this whole mess. I want the new tools. But I will never sign up for lifetime of payments to get them. I think people who sign up without any thought to the future are shortsighted. People who like the new model think I'm a hyperventilating idiot. So why don't we all come together and work out some kind of a alternative so that we don't become permanently warring factions? Of course this would require that Adobe participate, and current management would preclude that, but one can hope.


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 3, 2013 at 1:15:16 pm

Chris
Your posts are simply the best.
(No hate. Very objective. No pushing. Simply the facts)
Great.


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Chris Pettit
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 3, 2013 at 1:56:38 pm

Thanks Ranier. Not sure that's true, but thanks anyway.


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Tim Kolb
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 3, 2013 at 3:40:42 pm

Adobe changing their policy will be based on sales numbers. I don't know if they're good or not so I don't have any insight there.

I've heard idiots hyperventilate... I don't think of people who aren't comfortable with this arrangement as idiots. I think those who keep looking at very peripheral indicators as harbingers of doom or listening to the CEO's speeches backwards to listen for satanic musings are...um...distracted.

I don't think there is enough spin in the world to make Adobe's "cloud subscription" model seem flawless in its first months of operation...I'd be surprised if Adobe's staff anticipated a perfect transition.

The security breach just piles on more concern for all of us with this licensing model.

It's hard to say what Adobe will do in the coming months, but I can guarantee you that whatever decision they make won't be based on some sort of evil plan or intention of ripping off customers or anything else mysterious...it will be based on very un-mysterious sales and profit...just like the decision was made to go subscription in the first place. Either the revenue after the decision to go to the subscription licensing will be adequate to go forward with this model, or they'll re-evaluate.

You may say that profit motivation is OK..."within reason"... Just don't say that in a text from your iPhone.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Chris Pettit
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 3, 2013 at 4:52:14 pm

[Tim Kolb] "Adobe changing their policy will be based on sales numbers. I don't know if they're good or not so I don't have any insight there. "

Me either, just guesses based on all the discounts. But no hard facts

[Tim Kolb] " I think those who keep looking at very peripheral indicators as harbingers of doom or listening to the CEO's speeches backwards to listen for satanic musings are...um...distracted."

Don't recall reading references to doom or satanism in the posts on this forum.

[Tim Kolb] " I can guarantee you that whatever decision they make won't be based on some sort of evil plan or intention of ripping off customers or anything else mysterious..."

Again, I must have missed the posts concerning evil plans.

[Tim Kolb] ".it will be based on very un-mysterious sales and profit"

Agreed, my thoughts as well. In fact that part is a given, regardless of your perspective. Profit is why publicly traded companies exist. No one disputes that. However, leveraging near monopoly status for certain products in a particular industry to force change that a lot of customers don't want is another matter. Thus the outcry. The question is whether the bad PR is enough to damage their bottom line or not. I don't know.

I only know that if you don't even try, change never happens


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Tim Kolb
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 3, 2013 at 5:10:28 pm

Chris...my tongue-in-cheek remarks weren't really aimed at you. There have been some interesting perspectives on this situation posted in this forum over time however...

I do think that Adobe has made clear attempts (with some success I'd add) to deliver what they said they would with this model...and that's frequent updates, etc.

I would be surprised if Adobe could afford to keep the pace of development at the current speed AND return to perpetual licenses at the same price point they had before. As large a company as they are, resources are not finite and I suspect if they felt that they could sustain profitability in the long run with the old system, they wouldn't have put themselves and their customers through all this in the first place. I doubt anyone at Adobe considers the last 12 months a smooth ride any more than customers do...

I'm all for customers asserting themselves. If no customers would have bought into it, we'd have seen many more revised licensing schemes surface since the roll out.

I think rational objection to this licensing change (or any product change) is productive.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 3, 2013 at 5:58:58 pm
Last Edited By Rainer Schubert on Dec 3, 2013 at 6:19:04 pm

[Tim Kolb] "You may say that profit motivation is OK..."within reason""

http://www.4-traders.com/reuters_charts/3,2,605,375,Adobe+Systems+Incorpora...

Profit:
2013 (bring them in?)
2014 till 2016/17 (melk them? -> Sales)
Adobe made it´s math with losing many - nearby half - of former users -> Business Reports.
Nobody knows, if the discounts, they have to make, are a part of the plan.
Actual also late CS buyers.

Estimate: Will "Cloud" prices raise?

Profit:
Has to be a win win.


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Tim Kolb
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 3, 2013 at 7:19:11 pm

[Rainer Schubert] "Adobe made it´s math with losing many - nearby half - of former users -> Business Reports."


Your chart shows Adobe's Net margin (real income) dropping from just under 20% in 2012 to a bit above 5% in 2013...I doubt the stockholders would characterize that as "made their math".

Everyone lionizes Apple as really knowing what they're doing for charging ridiculous prices for their stuff and profiting enough to create a net worth that rivals the largest multinational energy companies on the planet and enough cash on hand to buy Adobe outright a couple times over.

When Adobe has to make a move to create greater than 20% net margin in the long term (does Apple have anything that they make less than 40% on? Would they even bother with that?), you accuse Adobe of being greedy.

Please...

This is the kind of thing I was referring to earlier...do any of YOU want to make 10% profit every year you're in business? Could you survive on that? Why should we expect Adobe to?

If you think you understand how Adobe should run their business, you should be in a corner office in San Jose popping ulcer pills and having every idea you have scrutinized to dust by people who don't know what they're talking about. Of course if you think that a 20% Net margin is ridiculously high, you wouldn't last long enough in business to get an ulcer anyway.

Again...if the licensing thing doesn't work for YOU as a CUSTOMER...state that. It's a valid viewpoint.

These assessments of business reports that even analysts don't all draw the same conclusions from are just tedious.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 3, 2013 at 9:49:10 pm
Last Edited By Rainer Schubert on Dec 3, 2013 at 10:00:05 pm

[Tim Kolb] "dropping from just under 20% in 2012 to a bit above 5% in 2013"

This dropping income (2013) is based on their own decision to establish something like a "cloud" in the market.
Adobe declared that to it´s WallStreet Fans: With establishing the cloud model in the market, there will be loses in 2013 (to 15).
It´s not a natural drop down, because users don´t buy any longer.

BtW: I´m not a lawyer of Apple. Did I praise them?
I also don´t like Apples politics trough the last years.
Their products are mostly great. Put prices? What about bringing customers in (on?) dependence (iTunes)?
Some NEGs of the so called "Cloud" are similar to those of Apple.

Nothing against a 20%+ net. margin, if it´s a win win situation.
Can only see one win here.
(Please no comparison with Apple again - If one faults its not legal for the others)
Apps as before. Files as before. All local as before.
Upgrades are faster (but not an argument for users like me - cloud option for those who think they need it = ok).
The few "cloudy" gimmicks are not fundamental (in my eyes).
The dependence of files on applications ends in additional costs for my archive (after the deal).

Of course I can´t run Adobes business. But does that mean, I can´t read their business charts?
I also didn´t state, that a 20+ net. income is something I would adjudge.

I´m simply wondering, how they can draw curves like that (for WallStreet) by promising stable prices for the next years (to us).
(An explanation would have been helpful)

After all, I´m not interested in Adobes income. (A few years ago, I might have been worried).
As they lost my trust completely (and their silence to all the p...ed users show, how much they care about me/us) - I only had a look to the sales.
(But it´s interesting, that you had a look to Adobes situation first ;)

[Tim Kolb] "These assessments of business reports that even analysts don't all draw the same conclusions from are just tedious.
"

Means: they are useless at all?


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 9, 2013 at 1:34:34 am

[Tim Kolb] "Everyone lionizes Apple as really knowing what they're doing for charging ridiculous prices for their stuff and profiting enough to create a net worth that rivals the largest multinational energy companies on the planet and enough cash on hand to buy Adobe outright a couple times over.

When Adobe has to make a move to create greater than 20% net margin in the long term (does Apple have anything that they make less than 40% on? Would they even bother with that?), you accuse Adobe of being greedy.

Please..."


I find forcing people to continue to pay forever to access their work to be in the realm of greedy. I also have never minded paying a bit extra for my Macs and Apple products because I believe them to be of very high quality and a good value for my production situation. And I only have to pay Apple once, not rent from them or they won't boot up.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1,Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.3, Premiere Pro 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Avid MC, Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 8Gb SSD, G5 Quadcore PCIe


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walter biscardi
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 3, 2013 at 10:52:44 pm
Last Edited By walter biscardi on Dec 3, 2013 at 10:53:36 pm

[Chris Pettit] "Here we go again, another CC Creative Cow thread has exploded, (previous thread) just like others "

An observation that I'm seeing repeated throughout this forum. You say the previous thread "exploded" so with some time to kill while I wait for a render, I went and looked at that "explosive" thread.

As of this writing a total of 16 people have participated in the thread you mention.

Gary leads all others with 26 posts in that single thread while Ranier has 15 and Aindreas has 10. That's 51 posts by 3 people in a single thread to date. Well over the majority of the posts.

Generally when I think of a thread that "explodes" like over in the FCPX forum when that came out, there were literally 50 or more people in a single thread with hundreds upon hundreds of posts.

Might be just me, but 16 people going round and round about Photoshop / Lightroom and Adobe with the majority of the posts coming from just a few people is not "explosive


[Chris Pettit] "So can we at least put to bed the ridiculous notion that "eventually this will all die down"? That talking point has been promoted repeatedly since May, on this and other forums, and even recently among respected contributors. Enough already. This debate is not going anywhere. It's fundamental. It's core to how everyone does business and creates their work."

Again an observation since the Cloud rollout in May but I see fewer new people participating in this forum with MUCH more participation from the same core group who have been fed up with Adobe since the beginning.

And it's the same circular argument being repeated but with a different subject header.

If this debate was truly building, I would expect to see participants swelling in this forum, but just scrolling down the forums I keep seeing the same core 10 - 12 names repeating many MANY times in each thread. So while the threads look huge, it's a bit deceiving when a handful of folks put up 50 - 100 of the responses in a single thread.

I'm sure I'll get flamed for what I just wrote, but that's ok, I'm used it. Just a friendly observation from someone inside the Cloud looking out.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

Southeast Creative Summit, Returning in 2014!
Foul Water Fiery Serpent, an original documentary featuring Sigourney Weave...
MTWD Entertainment - Developing original content for all media.
"This American Land" - our new PBS Series.
"Science Nation" - Three years and counting of Science for the People.

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Rainer Schubert
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 3, 2013 at 11:26:05 pm

No flames.
But your observation cloud covers the blue, clear sky.
Can´t see the horizon...

Perpetual licenses not longer available since May 6th.
But there are still some communities (may be little ones).
Espec. on Adobes own Forums.
"Adobe & Alternatives" still a Top Search at Google.
Macworld Articles with Alternatives.
http://www.macworld.com/article/2064681/photoshop-killers-nine-os-x-alterna...
Many p...d users all over the Web.

So if you are happy - enjoy.
We are also happy here, with our feed on solid ground.

Your friendly observation is nice but not necessary.


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walter biscardi
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 1:50:36 am

[Rainer Schubert] ""Adobe & Alternatives" still a Top Search at Google.
Macworld Articles with Alternatives."


So how are the alternatives working out? If they do the job for you then it looks like you've found what you need to move on. I have friends and colleagues who cut on FCP 7, FCP X, Adobe, Avid, Grass Valley, Media 100 and Vegas. Find what works and move on.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

Southeast Creative Summit, Returning in 2014!
Foul Water Fiery Serpent, an original documentary featuring Sigourney Weave...
MTWD Entertainment - Developing original content for all media.
"This American Land" - our new PBS Series.
"Science Nation" - Three years and counting of Science for the People.

Blog Twitter Facebook


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 2:36:22 am

Found out & On my way.
But that doesn´t mean, I have to leave the discussion.
Lucky on solid ground - as I wrote.


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Chris Pettit
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 3, 2013 at 11:38:04 pm
Last Edited By Chris Pettit on Dec 3, 2013 at 11:53:54 pm

[walter biscardi] "As of this writing a total of 16 people have participated in the thread you mention."

You're absolutely right about that, an observation previously made by others including Aindreas. My point was never that this forum debate involves lots of people, I said no such thing. My point, and I emphasized this, is that the conflict is not going away. The people who oppose this are not going anywhere. BTW, drop by the CC Facebook Page for more fun as well. Well more than half (my estimate) of the new posts are complaints, broken connections, apps that don't work, trial mode defaults, people demanding that Adobe go back to PLs, and creative users of Adobe software yelling at each other. The fault line between those of you that think this is just great and those of us who are pretty appalled by all this is deep.

[walter biscardi] "so with some time to kill while I wait for a render..."

I enjoyed hearing this, that's exactly when I tend to post as well!

[walter biscardi] "If this debate was truly building, I would expect to see participants swelling in this forum, but just scrolling down the forums I keep seeing the same core 10 - 12 names repeating many MANY times in each thread. So while the threads look huge, it's a bit deceiving when a handful of folks put up 50 - 100 of the responses in a single thread. "

I didn't say building. I said it's not going away. Frankly the momentum established in the first couple of months is gone, partly because Adobe announced "modifications" to their policy and then never said anything again about it. And BTW, I've talked to lots of Adobe users who are staying away from CC now that it's mandatory, they're just not activists like me. We have no idea how many people ultimately will buy in to this or not, not everyone takes the time to post on forums. Doesn't mean they're out there signing up with a smile on their face. And BTW, Adobe's numerous surveys would indicate THEY don't even know what long term adoption rates is going to be, and they're concerned about it.

I was hoping for other predictions Walter rather than a debate about forum numbers, especially from those like yourself who like the new model. I take it you have none, or just believe the status quo is fine and nothing should or will change?


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walter biscardi
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 1:48:34 am

[Chris Pettit] "I was hoping for other predictions Walter rather than a debate about forum numbers, especially from those like yourself who like the new model. I take it you have none, or just believe the status quo is fine and nothing should or will change?"

In terms of the subscription model? Nope, I have no qualms or suggestions on how to change it. It's performed better than we anticipated, the updates have been not just plentiful, but helpful in improving efficiency. When CC came out I said it was like we all got new computers because the "under the hood" improvements of Premiere Pro alone have made the tool incredibly snappy, particularly as we tend to do long form projects.

The Premiere Pro team has certainly been listening to the feedback coming in via the User Requests and my "checkbox" of things I wanted to see improved in Premiere Pro only has a few things left.

To date we've been running on a few personal licenses of the Cloud but I'm now in the process of converting the shop over to Teams.

My point about your "explosive thread" was just that there's not all that much in the way of "explosive" in there. It's a circular argument being made by just a few folks. At the Atlanta Cutters meetings, folks who were timid about the Cloud early on have embraced the model now and are moving on with the CC tools. Once you get used to how fast Premiere Pro is alone, it's hard to go back to CS6, which we all thought was so good when it came out.

From the outside looking in, you wanted prognostications. The fervor over the subscription model is just not there anymore. Holdouts for sure, but the vast majority of the voices I heard screaming back in June just aren't there anymore. Either they've moved on to another tool or they've accepted the subscription model. Heck I screamed louder than just about anyone about FCPX two years ago but even I have to admit that the 10.1 release shows that Apple is finally listening to the needs of the professional editors and it looks promising. Doesn't mean I'm going to jump back over there because the Adobe Suite is just so easy and powerful for our everyday needs I feel it still trumps the single X tool.

The forum numbers for me just show that the argument is very much slowed down and I'm not sure how much the Debate is worth debating when only the same folks keep circling around for each argument. You've made your point, but the audience is shrinking. At some point it's best to just let it go like I did with X. X forced me to pivot my company because I wasn't going where Apple was taking me, so I moved to Adobe.

Most folks here say they don't want what Adobe is selling, so figure out where else you're going to go. I've seen absolutely no indication that the subscription model will disappear. Changes and modifications are to be expected, but it's here to stay. Make your decision and move on, that's the only advice I can give, it worked for me.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

Southeast Creative Summit, Returning in 2014!
Foul Water Fiery Serpent, an original documentary featuring Sigourney Weave...
MTWD Entertainment - Developing original content for all media.
"This American Land" - our new PBS Series.
"Science Nation" - Three years and counting of Science for the People.

Blog Twitter Facebook


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Chris Pettit
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 2:29:21 am

First: I agree with most of what your saying here Walter. But in life (and business) there is always more to the story:

[walter biscardi] "Most folks here say they don't want what Adobe is selling, so figure out where else you're going to go."

For the moment, there is nowhere else to go in regards to crucial applications (AE, FL, AME, ID etc). Nowhere. I develop complex touchscreen applications for trade shows along with everything else I do in business. Because Adobe swallowed up Macromedia (I had a well founded feeling of dread the day that happened) I have no choice (for the moment) to go anywhere else. I could give you details of my particular business model, but I assure you that you have no idea what a challenge leaving "Adobe" Flash behind would entail. Video-centric (read: editor-centric) opinions often completely ignore the other aspects of digital content development. Easy to throw out the challenge, but you have no idea what's involved. And by the way: I have VERY smart programmers working for me, and the conclusion is the same no matter who I ask. There are no other tools available (at the moment) that replace Adobe Flash for what we need to accomplish for our clients particularly with seamless HD video integration into interactive interfaces.

Another example: Apple Motion is a reasonable (very limited but arguably reasonable) alternative to AE. But it wont run on Windows. I (and many others) have a huge investment into the Windows platform. Lots of people talk about alternatives, and I can assure you that I have my eye out for them. But at the moment they do not exist. I and the people I work with are stuck trying to convince Adobe to listen us. I hope they will. If they never do, then eventually new tools will emerge and they will have more competition then they do now.

I could go on and on. I'm no first time user of Adobe products (unlike a lot of new CC subscribers). I've been in the business and playing this game since the mid 90's.

I actually have no interest in seeing Adobe to loose market share. I'm NOT hoping they fail.

But I sure hope the "figure out where else your going to go" thing is simply your perspective not Adobe's. If I'm wrong, they may find that the backlash will be more than they were bargaining for.


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Walter Soyka
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 2:44:54 am

[Chris Pettit] " I develop complex touchscreen applications for trade shows"

I would love to chat with you sometime. Mind if I drop you a line?


[Chris Pettit] "There are no other tools available (at the moment) that replace Adobe Flash for what we need to accomplish for our clients particularly with seamless HD video integration into interactive interfaces."

I'm still new at it, but I've been geeking out over Derivative's Touch Designer lately.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Chris Pettit
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 3:29:31 am
Last Edited By Chris Pettit on Dec 4, 2013 at 3:39:48 am

[Walter Soyka] "I would love to chat with you sometime. Mind if I drop you a line?"

Absolutely Walter. As I've said before, I've learned a lot from your posts.

Not sure how you would prefer to reach out, let me start with my website:
http://digitalskye.net/


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Chris Pettit
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 5:22:16 am

Just took a look at your website, and that you have expertise in Watchout.

We should definitely talk at some point Walter.


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 2:41:15 am

Rendering ready?


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walter biscardi
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 2:54:11 am

[Rainer Schubert] "Rendering ready?"

Absolutely. Adobe Media Encoder ripped out the 12 files for WalterBiscardi.com pretty doggone fast.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

Southeast Creative Summit, Returning in 2014!
Foul Water Fiery Serpent, an original documentary featuring Sigourney Weave...
MTWD Entertainment - Developing original content for all media.
"This American Land" - our new PBS Series.
"Science Nation" - Three years and counting of Science for the People.

Blog Twitter Facebook


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 3:14:32 am
Last Edited By Rainer Schubert on Dec 4, 2013 at 3:29:26 am

Then your little, friendly observation is over now?
Fine.
(But it lasts a while, or, as you could count all the posters here?)

BtW: Only came back on your cloud to have a look & tell us:
Oh, there are some lonely naysayers left over at the small tea party.
Hey - War is over!
Go where ever you want, now - you are free for competition.
Ending with your description of happiness (once again) and a nearby done ToDo List?
OK. Job is done. Blue sky again.

It´s not wondering, that after half an year the anger fades away.

I personally don´t know anyone, who is lucky with the DISTRIBUTION of this so called "Cloud".
(Not about the tools itself)

May be I´m not very polite here, but I also wasn´t very amused about your thread description in reply to Chris.


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Dustin Lawhorn
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 4:25:31 am

[Chris Pettit] "[walter biscardi] "As of this writing a total of 16 people have participated in the thread you mention."

You're absolutely right about that, an observation previously made by others including Aindreas. My point was never that this forum debate involves lots of people, I said no such thing. My point, and I emphasized this, is that the conflict is not going away. The people who oppose this are not going anywhere. "


Walter, I just wanted to state something here. There are also people (like me) who simply didn't put a reply to the thread that Chris mentioned because we agree with the arguments already listed in the thread.

I've found that folks like Chris, Dave, and at times yourself, tend to say very eloquently what I was already thinking--so, why would I want to kick in my two cents when it would simply be a --"yeah, exactly! Good point."-- comment?

So, don't count the large participation of a few as somehow not mirroring the thoughts of others that are not dog-piling on the rabbit.

Also, +1 Chris.
:)

-dl


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Chris Pettit
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 5:02:43 am

[Dustin Lawhorn] "So, don't count the large participation of a few as somehow not mirroring the thoughts of others that are not dog-piling on the rabbit. "

This is truth.


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walter biscardi
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 3:52:49 pm

[Dustin Lawhorn] "Walter, I just wanted to state something here. There are also people (like me) who simply didn't put a reply to the thread that Chris mentioned because we agree with the arguments already listed in the thread. "

You are absolutely correct here. There's no reason to jump in if you agree with something that was said. I was merely responding to the claim that the thread just below was "explosive." When you analyze the thread, you find it wasn't so much explosive as it was a few voices being repetitive. Kind of like what's happening in this thread. If I keep responding to every single person who posts in this thread, and it keeps getting longer and longer, then we could claim this thread to be "explosive."

I've said my piece, I'll leave y'all alone as I know my presence isn't exactly welcomed in here since I really don't have a problem with the subscription model and the more we use it, the more we come to love the options. Best to you Dustin!

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Gustavo Bermudas
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 6:03:54 pm
Last Edited By Gustavo Bermudas on Dec 4, 2013 at 6:28:18 pm

[walter biscardi] "You are absolutely correct here. There's no reason to jump in if you agree with something that was said. I was merely responding to the claim that the thread just below was "explosive.""

I personally got tired of posting here, I think the message was clear, the majority is not happy with the cloud, I'm not happy with it, I had it for a year and then canceled, and I'm not missing it one bit, and I found a great alternative to Creative Cloud, is Creative Suite 6.
I never cared about Premiere, it's bad timing they decided to make it good now, I moved to Smoke and Avid, and still using FCP7.

The point is, because people are not posting here as before it doesn't mean that Adobe won, it means we've moved on.


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 9, 2013 at 1:51:53 am

Exactly. (For the dogpile).

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1,Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.3, Premiere Pro 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Avid MC, Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 8Gb SSD, G5 Quadcore PCIe


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 7:43:54 pm

you need to discount me - Half of it was me drunkenly trying to get rainer to talk german to me. That's distorting the post average.

when its not that, it's me trying to perfect the "rentier capitalism" rant to the point where Gary Huff actually physically explodes from frustration at having to read it again.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 8:36:18 pm

Und, wo ist die Antwort?


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 11:19:16 pm

Ich weis nicht. (entschuldigung - ich habe keine esset fur weis am dieses keyboard.) Bis keyboard das oder die? der? Schlect studiert!

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 4, 2013 at 11:50:01 pm

Which part of your body wrote that?

An Esset for weis?
An Esset doesn´t exist in my language - it´s a "Taste" for "Umlaute" (ä, ö, ü). Weis: if you know something. I know = Ich weis.
Das Keyboard.
Really. Schlecht studiert. Aber ich auch.

Btw is it: bringing customers in or on dependence or dependency

Don´t you fear, that if we go on with that... (the others here?)


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Gary Huff
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 5, 2013 at 1:41:00 am

[Aindreas Gallagher] "when its not that, it's me trying to perfect the "rentier capitalism" rant to the point where Gary Huff actually physically explodes from frustration at having to read it again."

You wish. It's not even a good analogy, so it's rather not worth getting worked up over. Just to point out dryly that it sucks.


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Richard Herd
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 5, 2013 at 11:52:24 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "perfect the "rentier capitalism" rant"

And calling it "rentier capitalism" is denotatively accurate (whereas "slave" and "indentured servant" are now bathetic hyperbole).


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Walter Soyka
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 6, 2013 at 1:53:53 am

[Richard Herd] "And calling it "rentier capitalism" is denotatively accurate (whereas "slave" and "indentured servant" are now bathetic hyperbole)."

The connotation, and possibly even the denotation, of rentier capitalism is that the rentier exploits their property parasitically, merely extracting value without improving the underlying property or contributing any new value to society.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rentier_capitalism

Adobe has thus far done exactly the opposite -- the software has improved nicely under Creative Cloud thus far.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
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Ricardo Marty
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 6, 2013 at 2:05:44 am

[Walter Soyka] "Adobe has thus far done exactly the opposite -- the software has improved nicely under Creative Cloud thus far.
"


Lets see if the continue to be so diligent if they ever make their numbers.

Ricardo


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 6, 2013 at 9:52:39 am
Last Edited By Rainer Schubert on Dec 6, 2013 at 10:46:03 am

...and if they continue with their arrogant silence if they don´t make these numbers.
(Didn´t they promise in May, that they are "working hard" on a solution for those, who want to use their archive after the deal without further costs?)


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Richard Herd
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 9, 2013 at 9:50:49 pm

[Walter Soyka] "the rentier exploits their property parasitically, merely extracting value without improving the underlying property or contributing any new value to society.
"


I guess we don't disagree on the sense.

I am saying Adobe is "merely extracting value without improving the underlying property or contributing any new value to society." Pretty much sums it up exactly.

If you rented a section 8 apartment, the landlord is legally responsible to ensure heating and plumbing, which, in my construal, does not entail "improving the underlying property."

Whether and to what extent Adobe may be rentier capitalists depends on whether "code fixes" here and there are improvements or something akin to basic heating and plumbing. From my observation, Adobe's business model has changed so drastically that service is a negative on the books (in the way that if a lens doesn't work, Panasonic must fix it and fixing it costs money), but really Panasonic can demand huge prices because their equipment works (and it's not for sale). I believe Adobe is headed in that direction. This is why, again in my opinion, Adobe Anywhere is a real gem of a service. It's actual service and support. If it doesn't break -- ever -- then Shantanu Narayen can rightly claim his place next to the post Soviet era Moscow.


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Walter Soyka
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 10, 2013 at 1:45:51 am

[Richard Herd] "I am saying Adobe is "merely extracting value without improving the underlying property or contributing any new value to society." Pretty much sums it up exactly... Whether and to what extent Adobe may be rentier capitalists depends on whether "code fixes" here and there are improvements or something akin to basic heating and plumbing."

I think your supposition is demonstrably false. We can reasonably disagree on the merits of the subscription model, but I don't see how you can argue that Adobe are not making improvements.

Adobe has shipped both bug fixes and new features since the CC editions launched in June. These include a number of very good, real-world features.

http://blogs.adobe.com/premierepro/2013/07/ppro-cc-july-2013-update.html

http://blogs.adobe.com/aftereffects/2013/09/after-effects-cc-12-1-whats-new...

http://blogs.adobe.com/photoshopdotcom/2013/09/introducing-adobe-generator-...

http://blogs.adobe.com/premierepro/2013/09/adobe-premiere-pro-cc-october-20...

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Steve Connor
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 10, 2013 at 2:57:45 pm

[Walter Soyka] "I think your supposition is demonstrably false. We can reasonably disagree on the merits of the subscription model, but I don't see how you can argue that Adobe are not making improvements.

Adobe has shipped both bug fixes and new features since the CC editions launched in June. These include a number of very good, real-world features.
"


True and if they carry on at this rate then it would be good!

Steve Connor

There's nothing we can't argue about on the FCPX COW Forum


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 10, 2013 at 5:14:18 pm

if


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Richard Herd
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 17, 2013 at 12:10:14 am

The just have to keep listening to the users -- the same business model Panavision follows developing lenses for cinematographers. Listen to your customers.


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Richard Herd
Re: Year in review: 2013 - Prognostications
on Dec 17, 2013 at 12:09:16 am

The issue is whether these are improvements or "plumbing." Generally speaking bug fixes are not improvements.

Having said that: the list you provided are mostly improvements, in my opinion. It seems to be a best case scenario: listening to mograph artists, fantastic development, rolled out quickly -- easily worth the price of rent if you're renting a small space and your business model allows it.

2014Q1 will definitely be pitching Adobe Anywhere to my finance and IT people. It's only been 6-ish months since CC rolled out and I'm already behind significant efficiencies.

Now, if we could find a term for "rentier capitalism" that is not so loaded or maybe go all antonomasia on it.

Thanks for the links!


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