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Adobe Has 1 million subscribers

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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 17, 2013 at 9:40:04 pm

Was foreseeable.
As former users have to fear, that they lose their discount (at Sept. 1 - Adobe continued one day after the discount-period ended).
The question is more, if they can really reach their target of 4 Mil + users till 2015.

I can believe, they will get their 1.25 Mil till Dec. 1, but I don´t believe that they will reach their targets in the end.

Wonder why, but: They reached a 5% plus at Wall Street with after hour trade for that (also profit dropped down to 59%).
Sigh.
Seems we all will get big monthly bills for the usage of computers and software in future.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 17, 2013 at 9:49:42 pm

with the profit way down they cannot hold forever. 1.2million subscribers and so little profit. i am sure that most of the earnings came from cs6 and the marketing cloud.

ricardo


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Ridley Walker
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 17, 2013 at 9:58:52 pm

I hold no animosity towards Adobe, I want the company to flourish and provide me with exceptional software.

However I'm no fan at all of the subscription model and will continue to hold out with CS6 until there is an option for some sort of buy-out.

I'd really have no problem paying a monthly fee as long as there is an exit strategy that lets me continue using the software frozen at the point I choose to leave the subscription.

Whether its a buy-out or a lengthy subscription term, there has to be a workable exit.


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 17, 2013 at 10:03:04 pm

Think, that is what the most users see as a minimum, to call it "acceptable".
But I think, as long as the numbers allow, they try to bind users (and their creations) to their Apps/Company.


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 17, 2013 at 9:59:12 pm

They actual have 1.030 Mil. (not 1.2) Cloud users.
Compared to nearby 13 Mil. staying with CS.
Wonder if they really will get away with that in the long run.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 18, 2013 at 12:03:03 am

Of those 1.030 million subscribers, at least 500k signed on before the announcement and remains to be seen how many will continue. Who knows how many signed up for the free 1 year subscription and all other fire-sale by adobe.

So contrary to Mr. Narayans claims adobe is still in very precarious situation, specially when the profit was lower than expected and they still got to add 3 million subscribers.

Will we see a buy 1 year get two sale? However this can also work in our favor because adobe just might offer a way out ( based on a recent communication by an adobe employee)

I don't want cc to succeedin its present form because if it does other companies will follow and the democratization of content creation will end.

Ricardo


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Ridley Walker
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 18, 2013 at 12:08:36 am

[Ricardo Marty] "I don't want cc to succeedin its present form because if it does other companies will follow and the democratization of content creation will end.
"


Even if all commercial software developers did go this route, there are still open source alternatives like Blender. I don't think the sky is falling just yet.

Some of the rhetoric on this forum is really over-the-top.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 18, 2013 at 12:12:18 am

[Ridley Walker] "Some of the rhetoric on this forum is really over-the-top"

Thats what some said when many here stated saying that adobe was going subscription only before adobe announced it.

Ricardo


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Daniel McClintock
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 18, 2013 at 3:33:06 am

Here's a link to Adobe's Q3 FY13 Earnings Call Sheet and Slide:

http://wwwimages.adobe.com/www.adobe.com/content/dam/Adobe/en/investor-rela...

A larger version of the slides used in the Earnings Script:

http://wwwimages.adobe.com/www.adobe.com/content/dam/Adobe/en/investor-rela...

As clarification, the head of the company, Shantanu Narayen, stated that, "As of the end of Q3, Creative Cloud adoption grew to over one million paid subscriptions, and we have millions more in the pipeline who are trying out the service."

I vaguely remember Narayen saying something about six months ago that they expect earnings to drop this year because of the transition, but that they expect it to stabilize and increase next year.

------------

"Sometimes Life Needs a Cmd-Z!"


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 18, 2013 at 6:09:42 pm

well, that's not ideal really. Great for them, but not really ideal.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Richard Herd
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 18, 2013 at 11:29:10 pm

Nasdaq: ADBE is a tech stock. Today, it reached its 52 week high of 52.67. In that same 52 week period, it's low was 31.33. Surely someone around here can do that math.

Now, let's revisit the meaning of rentier capitalism.


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 19, 2013 at 12:18:02 am

they're likely to lock in over three million. any real corporate mind shifting deceleration can only really take place in the next 6-9 months. If it does - they'll start selling the store again to pump the figures. the basic goal is a captive creative subscriber base without any realistic exit by 2016.
that is the subtext in some of the financial analysis you read - adobe get congratulated for their bargain basement deals for teams for instance.

they have wall street carte blanche to provide whatever deals they can conceive of to produce a roughly four million figure within 24 months.

the financial sector is being unspoken about the effective goal - get to a viable subscriber base, then set about monetising that subscriber base.
We're crazy to walk into this. Adobe's pot of gold is what they can do once they get that four million number. it's an incredibly captive subscription audience, because its not a fickle audience. It's not netflix - this is an audience that can only make money if they pay.

I can only say again that we are out of our living minds if we let this come to pass. The precedent is insane.
but - you know - go lemmings team.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 19, 2013 at 1:43:57 am

The No Lemming team is with you.


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Chris Conlee
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 19, 2013 at 1:50:05 pm

Yeah, we're called Avid users.

Chris


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 19, 2013 at 4:04:53 pm

indeed - hey, just out of curiosity, where do you work yourself rainer? Is that a german name? are you mostly an FCP guy?

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 19, 2013 at 6:49:17 pm

> Aindreas

German = right.
And FCP... It depends on projects. I´m working together with some agencies (we are friendly with) here and it depends a little bit on the projects in case of video.
Before May 6th I used the Adobe tools most. Now I try to build new projects on FCP if ever possible. But also CS6 will be used as long as possible if necessary.
Sometimes using Blender for small jobs (as 3D Design & Animation is a field of my work). Becomes more and more useful functionality for editing video.
And sometimes it´s all I need. And Video isn´t the main field of my work.
I´m a little bit in fear, that the CashCow will be used one day by one of my clients or agencies we are friendly with.
For the moment it´s no problem (as nobody wants it), but who knows.
I didn´t thought that they will become anyone on this "cloud"...

BtW: Like your posts. Would be happy, if I could use words like you do.


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 20, 2013 at 6:55:52 pm

[Rainer Schubert] " if I could use words like you do.
"


well, I bet you'd kick all our asses in German. if you could say something to Adobe in German - what would it be? :)

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Oct 4, 2013 at 4:30:13 pm

If I do so, it would be censored.
Every bet.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 20, 2013 at 11:37:10 pm

Imagine Blender and Lightworks working like premier and ae.

I was just looking at the new blender videos in youtube and its capabilities and its awesome. blender could truly become an "a/e" substitute.

It would be even more awesome if Lightworks and blender were to form some kind of collaboration being both open source it would truly be a cc killer at least for video and vfx

lets pass the word


Ricardo


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 19, 2013 at 1:56:59 am

Sometimes I think I understand Wall Street now.
And even in this moment Wall Street is telling me, I understand nothing.

I wonder why they get such an applause for bringing 8 % of their users into such an "overwhelming" "cloud" within two years...
By forcing with everything they have...
While at the same time Avid seems to die at Wall Street...

Sigh.
I think I will better not become an investor.


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Richard Herd
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 19, 2013 at 3:21:34 pm

Forcing workers to rent their tools makes good business sense for the slaveocrat, see also: sharecropping, also coal mines -- granted video editors are not risking their health (as far as I know), yet a balance sheet (aka "Wall Street") makes no judgements, except profit alone. Circular way of saying "yeah, Adobe is a great stock!" Buy buy buy. When--not if--WHEN they make a qudrabazillion dollars, other tech stocks are sure to follow. I really don't know how I can do my job without After Effects, Photo Shop, and Illustrator. I know there are alternatives and I am researching, but sheesh, 10 years of my professional development down the drain. argh.


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Walter Soyka
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 19, 2013 at 4:07:50 pm

[Richard Herd] "Forcing workers to rent their tools makes good business sense for the slaveocrat, see also: sharecropping, also coal mines"

I don't think that Adobe offering contracted access to an amazingly broad toolset for a really low rate in a free market is at all comparable to the real human misery caused by labor abuse of workers with no other options for survival.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Richard Herd
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 19, 2013 at 4:13:23 pm

That's why I said, "video editors are not risking their health (as far as I know), yet a balance sheet (aka "Wall Street") makes no judgements, except profit alone." It's not a coincidence that rentier capitalism is very profitable.


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Walter Soyka
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 19, 2013 at 4:26:13 pm

[Richard Herd] "That's why I said, "video editors are not risking their health (as far as I know), yet a balance sheet (aka "Wall Street") makes no judgements, except profit alone." It's not a coincidence that rentier capitalism is very profitable."

The problems I assumed you were alluding to with sharecropping and coal mining are not limited to health risks. There's the absolute economic dependence caused by working in a remote location with no infrastructure around, other than company housing and the company store, where you are a captive audience and must buy what you need directly from the company you're already working for at whatever prices they charge.

I'd also object to your analysis that Creative Cloud is somehow rentier capitalism. Adobe is not standing still. The continued development of these applications requires constant work (and expenditure of capital on Adobe's part). Nearly any software company today has to run just to stay still.

Continuing on that idea, I think that software is not directly comparable to traditional tools in part because the underlying technologies are changing so fast. Software tools have a useful shelf life in way that traditional tools do not; because of this, they require constant development to run on and with modern hardware and software.

My son may inherit my hammer someday, and it will no doubt serve him well, since neither nails nor wood are changing. If I gave him my old CS5 install discs ("Gee, thanks, Pop!"), what on earth would he meaningfully do with them in 20 years?

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Chris Conlee
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 19, 2013 at 4:37:58 pm

[Walter Soyka] "My son may inherit my hammer someday, and it will no doubt serve him well, since neither nails nor wood are changing. If I gave him my old CS5 install discs ("Gee, thanks, Pop!"), what on earth would he meaningfully do with them in 20 years?"

He could use them to prop up the too-short table leg he built with his old man's hammer?

Chris


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Walter Soyka
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 19, 2013 at 4:42:15 pm

[Chris Conlee] "He could use them to prop up the too-short table leg he built with his old man's hammer?"

Maybe they're more useful than I thought! And my FCP7 discs would be perfect for making sure that cool drinks placed on that now-level table top don't mar the surface with unsightly rings!

If you'll excuse me, I'm off to update my will.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Shawn Miller
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 19, 2013 at 5:13:03 pm

[Walter Soyka] "
The problems I assumed you were alluding to with sharecropping and coal mining are not limited to health risks. There's the absolute economic dependence caused by working in a remote location with no infrastructure around, other than company housing and the company store, where you are a captive audience and must buy what you need directly from the company you're already working for at whatever prices they charge."


Well said, Walter. The Creative Cloud model is NOT slavery by proxy as Sharecropping and coalmining were in the last century. There were even more profound (and depressing) social-political dimensions to those respective systems, but I suspect your points should be enough to illustrate that.

[Walter Soyka] "My son may inherit my hammer someday, and it will no doubt serve him well, since neither nails nor wood are changing. If I gave him my old CS5 install discs ("Gee, thanks, Pop!"), what on earth would he meaningfully do with them in 20 years?"

Give him an appreciation for what editors and designers had to do to produce content in "The old days". Maybe a bit like buying him an old beater and teaching him to repair it himself, instead of buying him a new car (for his first vehicle). :-)

Shawn



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Richard Herd
Re: Adobe Has 1 million subscribers
on Sep 19, 2013 at 10:27:16 pm

[Walter Soyka] "I'd also object to your analysis that Creative Cloud is somehow rentier capitalism."

I realize it has a negative connotation. Creative Cloud is as close to rentier capitalism as the words allow. The courts have affirmed that software is property and corporations are people. Literally, we rent property (software) from a capitalist (NASDAQ: ADBE / Shanantu). Other companies will follow suit, the extent to which CC makes a lot of money. The revolution is CC has to check in with the mothership every 30 days. Consider what that model would have done in 2008 after mass layoffs. A worker who is no longer employed, their software suite (MS Office) does not cost the company. That's very efficient.

The image of decaying and polluted 19th century London needs to be replaced with tech workers using software in cubicle farms under fluorescent lighting in temperature controlled offices, the sun not seen except during the quick walk to the subway.


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