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Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future

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Richard Cardonna
Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 3:32:52 pm

Just came back from reviewing adobe stock in nasdac btw its going down not much but it could be a trend. Well I read the ceos espectation for the cloud and he expects 4million subscribers by 2015. he states that they are adding 12k per week. I really think he is smoking something. he says that the cloud was the future non withstanding that cc is no really a cloud system and where did he get the idea.

However if his prediction come out true then everybody will be on cc and all the other nle's would have been trashed for all intent.

The last adobe numbers given where 2million lic there cloud has only 500k thats less than a quarter so in his mind he thinks that all the perpetuals plus 2 million more will fall for this sham.

However if they did not only will it create a creative monopoly but all software vendors will probobly want to go the same way. Terrible future.


Richard


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 3:57:13 pm

So Richard -

If you've got such a good handle on knowing the future, I assume you've gotten extremely rich in the stock market? I'm not quite sure who's smoking what here...

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Richard Cardonna
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 4:06:14 pm

If you read i am talking about adobs ceo letter to the shareholders published in nasdac pag. at nasdac.com look for abde. Its adobe ceo who is reading.

Why are you such an ass? You look like a nice old man.

Richard

ri


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 4:11:47 pm

Richard -

I am a nice old man...I just believe in calling people out when they're spreading falsehood, innuendo, and speculation about tools that I earn my living with. You're probably a nice young man. We just disagree. Feel free to call me out when you think I'm talking bull. I try not to...

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Richard Cardonna
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 4:31:30 pm

So who are you to call out opinions? Yours are better? or accurate? i m entitled to comment on what I percive. I was one of the first if not the first in this forum to denounce adobes intent for cc 3 weeks before max. I based on reading between the lines. Now i read adobes ceo letter to shareholders Am i to sit like a drone or sheep and just take it. I hope that when i get old i dont becone a complacent drone.


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Tim Kolb
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 5:09:12 pm

[Richard Cardonna] "I was one of the first if not the first in this forum to denounce adobes intent for cc 3 weeks before max. I based on reading between the lines."

I think part of this is based on a rather clearly established trend...Creative Cloud has been out for a year. While it's an abrupt change and it wasn't really handled as an evolution so much as a revolution...it isn't quite the insidious ambush plot that it's made out to be...and it wasn't THAT hard to see coming.

...the idea that Adobe has somehow harmed themselves in some long-term and fundamental way seems to make some of you feel better, but in the end, I just don't know if that will prove to be the case.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Craig Wall
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 14, 2013 at 5:37:14 am

Adobe stock has been down appreciably since the announcement...and it had been climbing before Narayen's debacle announcement . That's very telling. Wall Street is emphatically not smoking what Adobe's CEO is pitching.

I feel sorry for anyone who looks to that cloud longterm. You'd better never tweak your career, retire or experience any income variability...else your aep files will forevermore be under Adobe's keys.

I don't claim to be able to tell the future, but I do see this:

-There will absolutely be millions of former Adobe customers looking for alternatives. If you don't think so read around in the various forums.
-Adobe has extremely dubious leadership as we've seen the past decade. It's been a sad qualitative decline.
-Adobe has massive legacy code. A fresh start company could copycat all of Adobe's best ideas, build it with clean code...and bring in lots of fresh ideas.

I've already got replacements for PSD, Premiere and Flash. I fully suspect heavy discounting for Smoke or Nuke...and/or some new compositing apps. I'll ride with AE CS6 for a year or two and then I suspect it will be time to move along from that as well.

Life is full of funny particles.


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Tim Kolb
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 14, 2013 at 6:44:59 am

[Craig Wall] "Adobe stock has been down appreciably since the announcement...and it had been climbing before Narayen's debacle announcement . That's very telling. Wall Street is emphatically not smoking what Adobe's CEO is pitching. "


They closed at 46.49 on May 6th...closed at 43.61 today...6% down.

From mid-November '12, when Adobe was at 32.23, they peaked a touch over 47 bucks on May 3rd.

As for a "decade of dubious leadership and decline"...in August 2003, the stock was in the mid teens 15-17 bucks...they peaked over 45 bucks in August, 2008.

Even with the 6% decline in value since the 6th, the stock is still above 2.5 times its value ten years ago...

There are a lot of companies who would like to enjoy a decade of that kind of dubious leadership and "decline."


I'm not sure about the rest of your "vision"...but whether or not Adobe's code is "stale" or not, competitors will certainly show themselves, I'm sure.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 5:10:39 pm

No, Richard - you don't just have to sit around like a sheep - but most of the time on this forum, you're bleating like a sheep! You can make a point without contributing to all the noise...try not saying anything until you have something which will contribute to the dialogue...

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Chris Harlan
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 5:59:03 pm

[Richard Cardonna] "If you read i am talking about adobs ceo letter to the shareholders published in nasdac pag. at nasdac.com look for abde. Its adobe ceo who is reading.

Why are you such an ass? You look like a nice old man.

Richard
"


Dude, chill thyself out.


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James Daugherty
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 4:23:33 pm

This is what is going to happen.
Hackers are going to figure out how to reset the 30 day login.
Use one month and then cancel.
Every year use one month and upgrade and then reset software after canceling. $50 per year.

I think they under estimate peoples ability to hack. They have now
motivated people to hack.

Premiere Pro CC running on a Hacintosh is the result of big companies not listening.

James Daugherty
President SDMVPUG.com
San Diego Mac Video Production User Group


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Tim Kolb
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 4:42:23 pm

[James Daugherty] "Hackers are going to figure out how to reset the 30 day login.
Use one month and then cancel.
Every year use one month and upgrade and then reset software after canceling. $50 per year.

I think they under estimate peoples ability to hack. They have now
motivated people to hack."


Hmmm...yes, hackers have been largely unmotivated and inactive up until now...

Seriously?

If they buy the CC for one month for 50.00 every year before they hack, in most cases, Adobe gained 50 bucks as the hackers just steal it outright now...

Did people rip and illegally share more music when the primary method of purchase was 15.00 USD CDs or when the primary music service was the .99 USD per song iTunes?

While I understand much of the objections to this, the ongoing list of assumptions that those against this Creative Cloud decision are tossing around are just in conflict with reality.

Creative Cloud allows Adobe to have more control than ever over hacked versions...someone will always be able to hack software, but with the upgrades arriving more frequently than once a year, the hackers will really have to work to keep up.

The idea of making the software available for a monthly fee with legitimate support and proper installers will somehow drive MORE people to be dishonest doesn't really prove itself out based on any history available.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Chris Harlan
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 5:48:41 pm

[Tim Kolb] "While I understand much of the objections to this, the ongoing list of assumptions that those against this Creative Cloud decision are tossing around are just in conflict with reality.
"


Yes. That's become a real problem. There are some legit concerns and fears being expressed here. This DOES represent a change that many people don't welcome. Unfortunately the level of FUD being expressed is undermining some of that, making it all appear absurd.


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Tim Kolb
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 4:24:34 pm

[Richard Cardonna] "Just came back from reviewing adobe stock in nasdac btw its going down not much but it could be a trend. Well I read the ceos espectation for the cloud and he expects 4million subscribers by 2015. he states that they are adding 12k per week. I really think he is smoking something."

12,000 users per week for Adobe is a very conservative start, I doubt that any sort of special burning pharmaceuticals are necessary to come up with that figure, OR the projection.

...I don't know if you have a grip on the size of the customer base Adobe has.

As far as their stock trending, search "adobe stock trend" and the graphic that comes up will give you the ability to look at various periods of time...the Creative Cloud arrangement has been around for about a year, right?

Check the 6 month and the 1 year trends...steady slopes up.

Just because a couple of video editors sold their stock in Adobe doesn't mean that investors at large will somehow punish Adobe for trying to stabilize and streamline their revenue and cost structure...

You can look at all these indicators and squint to see what you want to see as much as you like...it doesn't make it true. We'll only really know how this went a year or more from now.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Craig Seeman
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 4:27:01 pm

Although I can only guess at the formula but I do think Adobe's making comments based on "reasonable" predictions.

My guess is the formula is something like, All users you don't skip upgrades will find advantage to CC and move. Of those users who skip one upgrade a large portion of them will move to CC since, while there might not be big benefit for them, there's much to lose if they don't. Adobe my anticipate that those who skip several upgrades may simply go elsewhere.

There's also some calculation that some users who may have bought two apps for their given field, AE, Photoshop, Illustrator, InDesign, will move to CC as well. Many of these users certainly fall into the skip upgrade pattern but, given the cost of two apps, they may jump on as well.

I'm sure that once, they've estimated those that join, their increased revenue by having upgrades paid for, vs those who drop off, they see a reasonably big revenue gain.

The problem for them may arise if competitors become more aggressive whether it be Apple with Motion, Pixelmator, maybe Quark seizes an opportunity, that a year or so down the road might not turn out as expected for Adobe.



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Tim Kolb
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 4:56:59 pm

[Craig Seeman] "The problem for them may arise if competitors become more aggressive whether it be Apple with Motion, Pixelmator, maybe Quark seizes an opportunity, that a year or so down the road might not turn out as expected for Adobe."

I think this is a valid point...made without all the hysterics, it sounds like a legitimate topic for discussion.

I personally think that if competitors didn't use this as an opportunity, they'd be crazy.

I would suspect we'll see gains for many competitors as this change takes place...for NLEs, FCPX, Sony Vegas, Lightworks, Edius, and of course-Avid...for graphics, Corel would be wise to put some serious effort into grabbing some marketshare....etc.

Giving the field more reason to innovate also keeps Adobe working to keep you in the Cloud. I'm quite certain the killer feature for most of these other apps will be to load/import the files of the competitive Adobe product...just like (Open Office and MS Office) which will make some of the current outrage sort of a non-issue after some time.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 5:47:41 pm

Quark has definitely noticed. Their rep said so on mashable.com

Previous Post:
My company amortizes software. We are not allowed to purchase online software subscriptions. So it's going to be a very long time before I make the switch. If I ever do. It might be time to look at other options? Quark are you listening?

Quark Rep:

Gavin Drake 2 days ago
@Laurie Jorgensen We're listening. Perpetual software licenses (no monthly subscriptions for QuarkXPress) and by the way, until June 30, you can upgrade any previous version of QuarkXPress (v3-v8) to QuarkXPress 9 for the cost of a standard upgrade.

If this is any indication, Adobe will be in for some competition. I hope Apple takes them on.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1,Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1, Premiere Pro 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Avid MC, Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 8Gb SSD, G5 Quadcore PCIe


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Tim Kolb
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 5:59:05 pm

[Jim Wiseman] "If this is any indication, Adobe will be in for some competition. I hope Apple takes them on."

I don't think there is any doubt that Adobe's competition smells blood in the water and I also don't doubt that Adobe is likely anticipating some customer departures as a result of this change...

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Craig Seeman
Re: Adobes subscription expectations = terrible future
on May 9, 2013 at 6:31:39 pm

Pixelmator had this post on their blog.
http://www.pixelmator.com/blog/2013/05/07/cloudiness/

They're not up to Photoshop level yet but they can import PSD (losing some things in translation of course) but apparently they're listening. Given their pricing they may want to work on a "Pro" version.



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