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Mike Jeffs
New York Times article
on Jul 6, 2013 at 4:29:48 am

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/04/technology/personaltech/photoshop-cc-turn...


Thoughts.

Mike Jeffs
Video Coordinator
BYU-Idaho


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Mike Jeffs
Re: New York Times article
on Jul 6, 2013 at 4:36:14 am

Ps here is the blog post from the same writer today

http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/05/photoshops-new-rental-program-and...

Mike Jeffs
Video Coordinator
BYU-Idaho


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Mark Dobson
Re: New York Times article
on Jul 6, 2013 at 7:01:23 am

Ah - The New York Times Article and the blog are written by David Pogue who as many will remember almost caused Richard Harrington and others to have a heart attack 2 years ago over an article he wrote extolling FPX.

http://blogs.creativecow.net/blog/5087/my-response-to-david-pogues-professi...

People didn't like his support for FCPX, but few will be able to argue with his description of the business model adopted by Abode and his assertion that the protest petition will not even ruffle the feathers of the Software giant.


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Ridley Walker
Re: New York Times article
on Jul 6, 2013 at 1:38:00 pm

[Mark Dobson] "few will be able to argue with his description of the business model adopted by Abode and his assertion that the protest petition will not even ruffle the feathers of the Software giant."

Agreed.

As Pogue states in the blogpost: "That’s why the petition is utterly hopeless. Adobe won’t change its course, because Adobe doesn’t care about those people. It already considers them a lost cause."


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Ron Pestes
Re: New York Times article
on Jul 6, 2013 at 7:43:38 pm

Just like Apple did two years ago. Only those with lots of money survive. Money, money, money.

ronpesteshdvideo.com
JVC GY-HM600
Dell M6600
Adobe CS6 Production Premium
MacBook Pro
Apple Certified Master Pro FCS 2




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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: New York Times article
on Jul 6, 2013 at 11:17:32 pm

aren't adobe in an unforeseen consequences crap shoot here tho?

Peters and others are casually dropping reference to software packages I've never heard of that look an awful lot like what I understand adobe software to be.

people seem to be replicating quite a few core functions. to re-state - say local pres for LOCOG off pixelmator.
every pres station for the London Olympics worked off pixelmator. Every last one.
No one touched adobe. And that was before CC.
depending on the task, the water's fine. It worked for the Olympics.
So maybe not AE for overthrow then - but definitely photoshop to a fair degree over the next 36 months (including CMYK handling), illustrator (ripe for slaughter), and dreamweaver (dreamweaver can be an object of derision depending on who you read.)

So.. Adobe, as the software company we understood, had 8.4 million CS clients.

As of eighteen months or so - they have 700,000 CC subscribers. that's around 9% of the CS install base.
with nothing else to sell but subscription. the financial projections in and around 2016 look pretty tricky.
the notion that the analyst shareholder base isn't going to start asking certain questions given the insane scale of over-reach Narayen orchestrated - I'm not sure.

Even if adobe crawl over the 1.25M barrier by offering every deal imaginable over the phone - seriously - read the adobe forums lately. They are in defcon 1 emergency mode to avoid that brick wall. they will literally say anything right now -

but even if adobe, in their terms, "pull it off" - what exactly do they think they have pulled off? A steady state software with an aggressively opposed customer base?

Seriously - I'm not joking - are these guys actually mad.
have they intrinsically forgotten what software is?

or did they go on a power trip leader weekend where they thought they had the keys to the world?
Oh no wait - they already did that. with flash.
let's all play that record again. asshats.

Adobe is, lately, a quite seriously crappy company, run by some class of megalomaniacal morons with serious delusions of grandeur.

Still: they are, fundamentally, market ordered to sell us craft tool software we are willing to buy.

They think they aren't. Lets see how that goes over a five year horizon.

http://www.adobe2014.tumblr.com
#adobe2014

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Chris Pettit
Re: New York Times article
on Jul 7, 2013 at 1:20:32 am

Nobody really knows how this is going to go for Adobe, including Adobe.

Predictions of Adobes' inevitable demise are clearly overstated. I'm not holding my breath waiting for an implosion anytime soon.

But so are predictions that Adobe can just do whatever it wants and suffer no consequences.

The petition for example: It has no teeth or enforcement, it's poorly worded and defensive, and being proposed by a student. But that doesn't mean it has had no effect on Adobe. It has embarrassed Adobe badly. Lot's of bad media. Lots of negative attention. And every attempt to write it off as disgruntled students or pirates has been met with loud input from legitimate users of Adobe software, including lots of people on this site and other blogs that have been forced to acknowledge the shear number of legit users that are opposed to this.

We still don't know how this is going to turn out, but Adobe is definitely gambling. They've bet their whole hand on this stuff. And just like Vegas, sometimes that blows up in your face...


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Ron Pestes
Re: New York Times article
on Jul 7, 2013 at 4:17:59 am

If things continue as they are I will wait a year or two still using CS6 and then jump to Avid. As some of you may recall, Adobe was all sugar and cream when Apple screwed us and said they listened to their customer base. That lasted less than two years. Just proves you can't trust anyone. And all their presenters at NAB this year were so sure we could still buy CC. They must be getting their asses kicked every time they step in front of a mic now.

ronpesteshdvideo.com
JVC GY-HM600
Dell M6600
Adobe CS6 Production Premium
MacBook Pro
Apple Certified Master Pro FCS 2




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Chris Pettit
Re: New York Times article
on Jul 7, 2013 at 3:23:01 pm

Imagine how ugly next years NAB is going to be....


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Rainer Schubert
Re: New York Times article
on Jul 8, 2013 at 1:04:59 pm

Their business reports say something different (if I read it right):
Adobe has 12.5 Mio paying users in total (Single Apps and Suites).

So 700.000 (Single App & Complete Subscribers - within more than a year) are LOWER THAN 6%!

They made their bill with losing more than half of their former users (great, new business strategy) in the end.
If they can press 4.5 Mio users into the cloud till 2016 it will work for them financially
(as the CashCow brings in much more income - nothing is getting cheaper for users in the long run)

For the moment there are many estimations and self set targets in Adobes gambling.

Keep CS6 alive as long as you can. Make it the WIN XP of Adobe.
It´s still good and stable.
You will only see a reaction of Adobe, if they lose more and more income (and they do for the moment - enormous)


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