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Decision to make

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Rich Rubasch
Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 2:02:54 pm

So I have the mailer for the special price on the Teams version of CC at $39/mo per seat for a limited time. We all know it's going to go up. I think I saw a deal for $29/mo introductory for individuals.

If we hold out for perpetual or another structure for the software and nothing happens we miss the deal and pay more.

What are you going to do?

Rich Rubasch
Tilt Media Inc.
Video Production, Post, Studio Sound Stage
Founder/President/Editor/Designer/Animator
http://www.tiltmedia.com


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Kevin Snyder
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 3:14:58 pm

I'm in the same boat. I would love to take advantage of the low intro price of $19.99 a month since I own CS6. The savings for a year would be great. However, I keep coming back to the fact that the longer I hold out the more money I will be saving in the long run. There isn't a lot of incentive to jump in right now since in a year the monthly price will be the same weather you you have been a long time customer or just jumping in. If adobe would sweeten the deal (like a longer lock on the price) they may be able to get me to jump. Knowing I go to $50 a month for the master suite in a year is holding me back. It just doesn't work for me personally.


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 3:17:54 pm

It depends on the amount of subscribers they can catch till november (their business year is ending then, and they have to hold out their 1,25 K Cloudies to Wall Street - else it gets difficult for them).
If they can foresee, that they will not catch enough into their "business model", we can see additional discounts.
Before the first of Nov, I don´t think you will lose discounts. So I would wait, if I was you - may be there will come discounts, when there will not subscribe enough.

I - for myself - will never subscribe to this.
I turnt my back to this "company".
And the price is not my (first) concern.
Simply don´t want to lose control (about my files and the software I use).
And I don´t want to see this becoming successful (also for other companies).
Not very likely, but I can replace most of their software to my needs.
(Video is only a small part of my business & I also have Apples SW (& maybe, I invest in Avid), Web-Design is no problem, InDesign is replaced with Quark, Illustrator & PS is more difficult, but I OWN the right to use CS6 through the next years. I can also find competitors for most of what this Apps can do)
So my point is made behind Adobe.
Especially as we all can not hear one single word that they listened to those who are concerned about their change of philosophy.


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Florian Sepp
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 3:58:38 pm

the discout is just for the first year. thats about 360$ discount (if Im right) compared to the investments we made for production premium or masters collection this is a joke.
I see it the other way round If I can stay at CS for a year I save 480 $ even with discounts.
I personaly have no need to change in near future. I will be able to buy into the cloud even with a way outdated cs or even with no cs at all. with this little discounts they will not catch me.
if I realy go to the cloud in 3 years I saved 3 years rent minus the smal bonus they are willing to pay me for my long year loyalty

for me that sounds like the better deal

best regards
Florian


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Dave LaRonde
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 4:03:21 pm

How do you view this:

As a simple monthly expense to which you must now resign yourself? That's one thing.

Or do you view it as as issue where you lose access to project files should you ever decide to discontinue your cloud subscription? That's a totally different kettle of fish.

Dave LaRonde
Former Sr. Promotion Producer
KCRG-TV (ABC) Cedar Rapids, IA


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Rich Rubasch
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 4:23:49 pm

I just oppose this new model. And I am a Production Premium user only and we are not yet a Premier shop. Holding out for the new FCP X on the new MacPro.


So none of this is a good deal for us.

Rich Rubasch
Tilt Media Inc.
Video Production, Post, Studio Sound Stage
Founder/President/Editor/Designer/Animator
http://www.tiltmedia.com


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Ridley Walker
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 4:29:19 pm

[Dave LaRonde] "Or do you view it as as issue where you lose access to project files should you ever decide to discontinue your cloud subscription? That's a totally different kettle of fish.
"


Its not the expense. Dave, you nailed it – losing access to my work is the killer. All rhetoric aside, Adobe's new business model is not for me.


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 4:44:35 pm

Well said.
Losing my (clients) files after subscription was also the killer argument for me.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 5:35:21 pm

Just remember that what you do might not open in cs6. So you will be chained'

Ricardo

I will never subscribe.


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Shane Ross
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 6:58:29 pm

I had a 1year license for CS6, as a blogger. I own CS5.5. I was excited about the new Premiere, and downloaded the demo. It's good. But not good enough to go into the subscription only model.

In LA, Avid is king, Avid MC is what is used the most, and how I make my living. So I'll stick with that. If anything comes up that might require things Avid MC cannot do, and FCP7 can't, I might try CS5.5, or just rent CC for Premiere only for that time, if it is a short subject. Export XML after. Maybe. But I'm not keen on a full on subscription.

Photoshop and AE 5.5 are just fine for my needs. And I have other NLE options. Although I wish I did get CS6. I might work on that.

Shane
Little Frog Post
Read my blog, Little Frog in High Def


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Walter Soyka
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 7:05:07 pm

[Shane Ross] "Although I wish I did get CS6. I might work on that."

Just FYI, CS6 perptual licenses are still available for sale from Adobe.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Walter Soyka
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 6:44:32 pm

I understand the ideological arguments that smart people here like David, Jim, Aindreas, Dave, Ridley, Rainer, and Ricardo are making about subscription licensing and project file access. This may not be that painful for PSD documents that are editable elsewhere, but it is much more acute for Premiere Pro and After Effects documents.

That said, I think that subscribing to Creative Cloud can still be a smart and practical choice.

I'm not going to rehash the marketing materials about faster feature updates, and I'm not going to talk about what I think CC will ultimately become in terms of products plus services. I am excited about both of these things, but they're indefinite future benefits and I can understand why they wouldn't figure in anyone's decision today.

Both Premiere Pro CC and After Effects CC both have a lot of new features today that I'm finding helpful.

Premiere Pro CC first: it has a ton of little editorial improvements. It has mezzanine codec support, including smart rendering for popular formats. It has clip-level mixing. It has vastly improved re-link system. It has Lumetri looks. It has broader GPU support.

Ae CC next: it has the new refine edge tool for compositing things like hair or motion blur. It has C4D Lite bundled in, along with the new CINEWARE renderer for live integration between C4D and Ae. It has layer feature snapping and bicubic resampling.

Both apps feature settings sync, which allows you to copy your own personal preferences to any machine from the cloud -- separate from the CC account that's activated the software. You can move from computer to computer and still feel at home with your UI customizations.

SpeedGrade CC has a more Adobe-like interface, Shot Matcher to help you grade consistently, and is now open to other video I/O cards via the Mercury Transmit Engine. With Premiere's Lumetri looks, you can do some overall color look work in SpeedGrade and bring it back into Premiere for editorial context.

Audition CC (which I am just now getting into) has a new Sound Remover effect, built for removing unwanted background sound like sirens and cell phone rings. It has new selection tools for spectral editing. It also has a bunch of UI enhancements in the multi-track editor.

These are all features that make my work easier, and I think they're worth paying for.

Speaking of paying, let's talk about the money.

First, I need to work with other people -- that means I need to stay compatible. I've been on de-facto subscription with Adobe anyway, automatically upgrading as new CS editions were released.

Aside from Adobe, I'm also on subscription with Autodesk for Smoke, The Foundry for NUKE, and Maxon for CINEMA 4D Studio. Creative Cloud is actually the cheapest of the lot -- some of us probably spend more on coffee every month -- and Creative Cloud offers the broadest feature set. If Adobe can profitably raise the price of their tools to a point where I can't profitably afford to use them, I'm running my business wrong.

Admittedly, all the rest of these subscriptions are for maintenance. If I stopped subscribing, I'd still have a frozen-in-time perpetual license.

However, it seems to me that the value of old software is being massively overstated here -- at least for my business. My old CS4 discs wouldn't do me much good now in 2013 (not to mention they are still dependent on Adobe authorization for install). How much good will my CS6 discs be in another couple years?

There's an opportunity cost to old software, too. You have to maintain an old machine to run it. Maybe you still have a Media 100 in the corner and regularly pull up old projects from years past. We don't. We spend nearly all our effort on new projects.

I've found as I've added PCs to my business in the last couple years that I'm not going back to old FCP projects the way I thought I would be. Assets from old projects are still important, but the actual project itself is generally not, and my FCP Mac Pro is spending a lot of idle time.

I'm not trying to downplay the importance of being able to open legacy files. I think that exporting XML alongside masters is a best practice.

But with Creative Cloud, I can still access old files. Adobe has committed to keeping old versions available for download, so I'll be able to install CS6 again in a few years if I need to. If my business changes, I don't need to stay on subscription permanently; I can rent an app by the month for a reasonable cost if I have to re-open an old project in the future. I re-open old projects for profit, not for fun, so if I do switch away from Adobe, I'll cover the expense from the billings on the revived project.

Basically, the difference between a perpetual license and a subscription license changes how I pay for old project file access; it doesn't actually limit it.

There's a lot of rhetoric here with words like "chained" and "hostage" because CC requires on-going payment. My business has similar dependencies on a dozen other things like this: rent, power, Internet, phones, insurance, email, web hosting, storage, etc. I don't consider myself chained or held hostage by any of these, even though I couldn't work without them and some of them would be vastly harder to switch away from or drop than Adobe software. I consider them costs of doing business, and I pay them so I can keep working and keep making money.

I do respect the decision people are making here to avoid CC because of the ongoing payment model -- but that's just not a practical problem at all for my business. It would be a far worse problem for me to give up the tools today than it would be to rent the tools again occasionally in the future for revisiting old work if I had switched away.

From the online conversations here, you'd think everyone was opposed to Creative Cloud. From the in-person conversations I've had, most people seem excited about it. I play devil's advocate, explaining the need to pay for subscription for continued project file access, but nearly everyone I've talked to in real life is more excited about the easier consistent budgeting.

I think if you're going to go for Creative Cloud, you should understand what you're getting into -- but I also think it's a reasonable and practical choice for a lot of businesses.

Whichever path you choose, best of luck!

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Herb Sevush
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 9:19:22 pm

[Walter Soyka] "Admittedly, all the rest of these subscriptions are for maintenance. If I stopped subscribing, I'd still have a frozen-in-time perpetual license."

And there's the rub.

What the FCPX fiasco demonstrated to me is that I need anywhere from 1 to 2 years to migrate comfortably from one NLE to another. With FCP this was financially painless, if in no other way. While waiting to sort out my options I was able to continue my work without additional expense.

Now let's look at the Cloud. Theoretically in a few years Adobe could decide to double, $1200/year, or even triple, $1800/year, the rental cost - remember I'm not predicting this, I'm just conducting a little financial modeling experiment. At that point I decide it's too rich for me and decide to switch to something else, but now I'm stuck paying exorbitant rates while trying to migrate my workflow, and that of the other editors who work for me. This can become a very costly proposition - $1200 per machine x however many systems I use per year while I make the move - suddenly this is no longer coffee money. This is what the lack of a perpetual license looks like on the down side and it doesn't look good to me.

First of all you have to ask how reasonable a scenario is that. Many have argued that it would be insane for Adobe to raise prices like that and that if they did everyone could just leave. But as I have demonstrated leaving is not easy or simple for a lot of places that are tied into long range established workflows.

Second it has become quite obvious that Adobe is quite consciously pruning off the low hanging fruit and targeting the higher spenders. Their current pricing model is based on loosing half their user base, given their own projections. What happens if they loose 55% or 60%, under those quite possible circumstances they might have to increase prices a lot more in the future, believing their new target audience can afford it.

Third, and I cannot emphasize this enough, the way Adobe corporate has timed and rolled out this sudden switch to the Cloud leads me to believe they are a bunch of idiots, and I will no longer put anything past them in the stupidity department.

In order to bet on the Cloud you have to have some faith in Adobe's future decision making, and I have to say right now I don't have that faith.

Like you Walter I see a lot of improvements in PPro 7, AE, and Audition. They had me licking my lips in anticipation after the NAB demos. And like you I always buy upgrades to all my software for work as soon as they come out - I'm still amazed at how cheap some of this stuff is. for me the current pricing structure works out this way - if you want the Master Collection, it's a bargain. If you want Production Premium, it's a small price hike. Either way I don't see the current pricing as a deal breaker, although it can be for those that skip upgrades frequently and it's become obvious Adobe no longer wants them as customers. But even for someone like me the Cloud has made buying Adobe's products contingent on belief in them as an ongoing provider and their current actions have made that belief harder to justify.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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John Davidson
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 9:43:39 pm

I just re-bought CC at the $19 rate for an additional 2 seats of CS6 for a year. I'm not installing the CC7 apps though. My worry is that I'd accidentally update/save a PSD or AE file in CC7 - and then we won't be able to open our work on our paid for CS6 systems.

Basically, it's as if we're frozen in time.


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Walter Soyka
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 10:17:50 pm

[John Davidson] "I'm not installing the CC7 apps though. My worry is that I'd accidentally update/save a PSD or AE file in CC7 - and then we won't be able to open our work on our paid for CS6 systems. "

A PSD saved from Photoshop CC will open in Photoshop CS6. Backwards compatibility works the same as it has been for years on Photoshop. If you used new features not supported on the older version, you'll see the rasterized output of that feature as a layer in the older version.

An AEP saved in Ae CC will not open directly in Ae CS6, but Ae CC does have a "Save as CS6" feature that works very well. New CC features like the CINEWARE renderer effect will not translate, but everything all CS6-supported features translate faithfully.

You can use the apps to take advantage of done of their improvements and retain backwards compatibility as long as you're careful about what new features you use.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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John Davidson
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 10:28:45 pm

Right. Since I'm not the main production person here anymore, there's a really solid chance I would mess something up for the guys on CS6 normal. Then I'd have to go back in, resave, etc. Not worth it to me. All we want is Photoshop and AE CS6.

John Davidson | President / Creative Director | Magic Feather Inc.


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Walter Soyka
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 10:35:25 pm

[John Davidson] "Right. Since I'm not the main production person here anymore, there's a really solid chance I would mess something up for the guys on CS6 normal. Then I'd have to go back in, resave, etc. Not worth it to me. All we want is Photoshop and AE CS6."

Totally understand. If you're happy with CS6, this makes absolute sense.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Kirk Pitts
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 10:29:36 pm

The educator discount expired a few weeks ago. I almost decided to subscribe but I just disagree with this model so I decided not too. CS6 will suffice for me.


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 3, 2013 at 11:53:57 pm

There is NO written guaranty of Adobe that this behavior will not be broken in future.
At the product info pages they only guaranty for the moment. Small print tells, that they can change that to what ever they want.
And when I have a look to their strategy - Their rashly and radical change. Their silence to all concerns respective loosing file access and other concerns...
The problem is - I lost my trust completely.
Never had a problem with Adobe before (They where the rock - against MS, Apple and all the other monopolists....)
Now they are an other shark in the pool.
So going on with them is like investing in a unforeseeable future.
No.
My point is behind.


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Walter Soyka
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 4, 2013 at 12:56:43 am

[Rainer Schubert] "So going on with them is like investing in a unforeseeable future. "

I find the future in general to be unforeseeable. That's not unique to Adobe. I don't know what the future will bring for any tool set, Adobe or otherwise, but I do know I can use CC today to get faster, better results for my clients now.

You're choosing to skip these tools today in and mitigate a future risk. I understand the risk, but I'm choosing to accept it and use the new tools today.

Depending on one's circumstances, either one could be a practical choice.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Chris Pettit
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 4, 2013 at 1:19:59 am

That's the deciding factor for me as well. Trust.

Like everyone else, over time, I'll have to make agonizing decisions about whether to risk signing up for CC with it's long term dangers and 'dead end' issues or just accept that I need to move on, purchase NUKE and never buy another Adobe product for the rest of my career. Tough choices. Eventually.

But for right now, as an owner of CS6, this is not complicated. I don't trust Adobe. The irrational, mean-spirited and arrogant way they've handled this whole CC mess is appalling, and for the moment I refuse to vote for Adobe with my money. They will get my money when they show ANY sign of compromise. ANY.

I am completely respectful of people who decide they need the new versions of the tools now, and are not willing or do not need to wait. CC has great value for developers. I'm impressed with the new feature sets and would upgrade in 2 seconds if they weren't trying to force mandatory CC down my throat. Frankly I am somewhat jealous of those who can justify the risk in return for the new features, I wish I could just licence the new software. But alas, that ain't happen'n.

I continue to hope that some kind of a reasonable buy-out option might emerge, but I just don't believe that Adobe will do anything that's in the interest of it's long time users unless they are literally forced to.

So, until then, my wallet is in my pocket.


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Ron Pestes
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 4, 2013 at 3:49:52 am

I don't understand the buy out argument. It seems that is just kicking the ball down the field for awhile. You still end up locked out, just at a later date with newer software that will itself get outdated.

ronpesteshdvideo.com
JVC GY-HM600
Dell M6600
Adobe CS6 Production Premium
MacBook Pro
Apple Certified Master Pro FCS 2




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Chris Pettit
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 4, 2013 at 4:31:50 pm

Ron:

The thinking is that at least I can drop out if I need to at some point with something for my investment. If I decide I cant or wont make the payments at some point in the future, I can still have access and modify any contemporary work from that point on without being a slave to Adobe's rental scheme. I can edit video, animate in AE, develop apps in Flash, whatever.

Frankly it would be a long time before I would drop out myself, I'm a prime candidate for long term subscriptions even though I'm not happy with mandatory CC, but I would most likely suck it up and pay because I want the tools.

But i simply will not subscribe without some kind fallback where I have access to my work if payments stop. Without that security, there is no longer any relationship with people like me and Adobe.


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Wendell Davis
Re: Decision to make answer NO
on Jul 4, 2013 at 3:35:27 pm

I keep all my software up to date but it just ended with Adobe's stupid decision for them. Also I travel constantly for the government and if I can't get network access I can't work. Talked with them about this and they basically said to bad.

I've owned AVID - they blew it becoming abusively expensive, owned FCP, Apple blew it with X changing life as professionals knew it and becoming just amateur time. Now Adobe. Adobe is going to loose out just like Apple and Avid. All just greed. There are other fish in the sea.

Biggest thing for me is when I stop using CC if I were to rent it is not having access as I get ready to retire in a few years. All the things I've done for family and friends would no longer be accessible. It would be a STUPID decision.

Sorry Adobe, one more lost customer.

Wendell Davis
Senior Producer, Director, Editor, Videographer
CS6.



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Shane Ross
Re: Decision to make answer NO
on Jul 4, 2013 at 5:18:21 pm

[Wendell Davis] "I've owned AVID - they blew it becoming abusively expensive,"

They USED to be expensive..."hmmm....Lamborghini or Avid?" Now...it's $999, less than Adobe CS6.

Shane
Little Frog Post
Read my blog, Little Frog in High Def


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Wendell Davis
Re: Decision to make answer NO
on Jul 5, 2013 at 1:38:26 pm

Actually thinking of AVID. My government contracts however require PPr. They are so far behind they just got CS6. Switching to AVID would just be for me and other clients. FOr now CS6 works.

Thanks.
Wendell



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Dennis Radeke
Re: Decision to make answer NO
on Jul 6, 2013 at 11:30:06 am

[Shane Ross] "They USED to be expensive..."hmmm....Lamborghini or Avid?" Now...it's $999, less than Adobe CS6."

True, but the CS6 Production Premium suite was a complete package. No one purchased MC for anything but the editor. Production Premium or Creative Cloud are complete toolsets with several standard programs so I would hesitate to make a straight up comparison.


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Walter Soyka
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 4, 2013 at 3:42:06 am

Herb, you've got a well-reasoned point of view. You want an exit strategy before you commit, just in case. That's totally sensible. I've got one, too.

I wouldn't say that CC is right for everyone, but I do think that the practical downsides of CC are often overstated here.

Transitioning away from Mac-only with FCP to Macs and PCs with Pr has taught me that I'm more flexible than I thought and that I can transition if I have to. Others may have already reached their own tolerances, but I haven't reached any threshold where I feel have to transition. I'm sticking with CC because I think it's a fantastic toolset and a really good value. I'm not about to transition while I still think it's the right tool for me to be using now and for the foreseeable future.


[Herb Sevush] "First of all you have to ask how reasonable a scenario is that. Many have argued that it would be insane for Adobe to raise prices like that and that if they did everyone could just leave. But as I have demonstrated leaving is not easy or simple for a lot of places that are tied into long range established workflows."

Don't you think the folks "tied into long-range established workflows" the very ones not upgrading to Creative Cloud?

Also, how many of us here in this thread are really tied into long-range established workflows? You might have the longest of us here, and you're a season at a time, right?


[Herb Sevush] "Second it has become quite obvious that Adobe is quite consciously pruning off the low hanging fruit and targeting the higher spenders. Their current pricing model is based on loosing half their user base, given their own projections. What happens if they loose 55% or 60%, under those quite possible circumstances they might have to increase prices a lot more in the future, believing their new target audience can afford it."

I wouldn't say it's obvious that Adobe is targeting higher spenders. Creative Cloud has eliminated the financial barriers to entry -- that perpetual licensing upfront cost -- for new customers. Adobe's tools are arguably more accessible than ever. If raising the price of subscription makes it less appealing to new customers going forward, it's suicide.

I don't think Creative Cloud is a short-term play. Just the opposite: I think Adobe will take a short-term hit because they think this is better for them in the long run. A company looking beyond just the next quarter's results is old-fashioned but strangely appealing.


[Herb Sevush] "Third, and I cannot emphasize this enough, the way Adobe corporate has timed and rolled out this sudden switch to the Cloud leads me to believe they are a bunch of idiots, and I will no longer put anything past them in the stupidity department."

Touché. I don't have much here.

I will say that I have lots of faith in the individual product development teams who have done really good work, especially over the last few releases. I like the direction that these apps are going, and I'm willing to put up with the new business model to stick with it.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 4, 2013 at 9:50:03 am

@ Walter Soyka:
"I wouldn't say it's obvious that Adobe is targeting higher spenders. Creative Cloud has eliminated the financial barriers to entry -- that perpetual licensing upfront cost -- for new customers. Adobe's tools are arguably more accessible than ever. If raising the price of subscription makes it less appealing to new customers going forward, it's suicide."

It´s Adobe itself, who is arguing, that they don´t like/want the home-user and low-budget community among their selling users any longer.
For the lower end, there will be the hobbyists tools.
Their target group are clearly (they said/defined) the higher spenders.
And by that: Lowering the "entry costs" by "smaller" fees is stupid or better: sneaky.
If you don´t have enough money to buy a complete Software package to make your income (which is not that much - we are not talking about X-ten-thousand $), you will see the day, where you can´t pay your fees any longer.
And may be it´s the same day, where a client is at the door, who want´s one of his files to be updated...
I bet my A that prices will raise in a foreseeable future (I think the timeline is mid/end 2014).
But that makes most sense, if there are enough users in a "now way out" situation.
Let´s see - future will tell.
(They calculated CashCow with even the half of former users. CashCow users pay a lot more over the long run, but they have to pay min. a doubled price to bring Adobe it´s income back. A simple math. For the moment Adobes income shrunk to 1/3 - That doesn´t work for ever. Lot´s of estimations here.)

They are also moving away from their core-business: Apps for Graphics and Video.
There are statements of Adobes VIPs, that these products are that kind of mature, that it´s hard to bring in additional, useful features with passable costs (...and pointing out a new GUI-color in the Upgrade-feature list attests that).
I wonder if there will be many, overwhelming updates (fast delivered...) in the near future. I think the upgrade of June 17 was it - for a long period.
(Or is this CashCow-change also hiding, that there are no longer great updates... No point, where they have the necessity to point them out...)
They want to move in the direction of a marketing and business cloud - what ever this will be (to me they have no plan for that, themselves).
To me it seems not well planed and they are very late with that. I don´t think, that they will really concentrate on new features for their core-Apps in the future. And when I have a look to their acquisition in the last month - they are buying Net-companies. That´s the place where they concentrate development.
In my eyes this move is very risky, and I don´t think, so much of the (today) users will move in this direction also.
And: There are many competitors already established here. Adobe can´t buy them all out, as the developers in graphical business in the past.
Adobe will never get the monopolist state here as in the graphical industry.
Again: Let´s wait and see.

In my eyes this move is away from their customers, who made them the company they are (or better: were)


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Herb Sevush
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 5, 2013 at 12:09:08 pm

[Walter Soyka] "I wouldn't say that CC is right for everyone, but I do think that the practical downsides of CC are often overstated here. "

I agree that my reaction to the Cloud it is as much an emotional/psychological reaction as a logical one.

[Walter Soyka] "Don't you think the folks "tied into long-range established workflows" the very ones not upgrading to Creative Cloud? Also, how many of us here in this thread are really tied into long-range established workflows? You might have the longest of us here, and you're a season at a time, right?"

I don't understand the factors working on who is or isn't upgrading to CC. It takes me about 9 months to cut each season's shows so I plan for a year at a time. Walter B. is very pro CC, and I would define him as someone with long range established workflows, so I don't think that is a deciding factor.

[Walter Soyka] "I wouldn't say it's obvious that Adobe is targeting higher spenders. Creative Cloud has eliminated the financial barriers to entry -- that perpetual licensing upfront cost -- for new customers. Adobe's tools are arguably more accessible than ever. If raising the price of subscription makes it less appealing to new customers going forward, it's suicide."

Adobe is forcing their customers to constantly upgrade, or at least pay for constant upgrades, moving away from those customers who skip upgrade cycles. To me that sounds like a definition of higher spenders.

The idea that the Cloud lowers the barrier to entry is mostly silly, anyone with a credit card has had pretty much the same cost as the Cloud with greater flexibility in monthly payments.

What the effect of raising the price will be on future customers as against increased revenue on captured customers is something I'm not privy to; it might well be suicide, but I'm not convinced this version of corporate Adobe isn't mentally ill.

[Walter Soyka] "I don't think Creative Cloud is a short-term play. Just the opposite: I think Adobe will take a short-term hit because they think this is better for them in the long run. "

But is it better for me? And do I believe that Adobe has the foresight to know what is in even their own best interests. Currently, no.

[Walter Soyka] "I will say that I have lots of faith in the individual product development teams who have done really good work, especially over the last few releases. I like the direction that these apps are going, and I'm willing to put up with the new business model to stick with it."

After all my other complaints, if this was true for me I would probably, after checking all other alternatives, cross my fingers and sign on. But since the one area that they can't seem to get right, multicam, is the one thing I desperately need to be right, I'm probably looking elsewhere.

I fully understand your position and that of any others who make the commitment to CC. I hope I'm wrong in my fears and that it works out well for all who sign on.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Dennis Radeke
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 6, 2013 at 11:38:30 am

[Herb Sevush] "Theoretically in a few years Adobe could decide to double, $1200/year, or even triple, $1800/year, the rental cost"

If you theoretically doubled or tripled your fee to your customers could you get away with it? No. So, while I see people make this argument many times, it just doesn't hold water.

[Herb Sevush] "In order to bet on the Cloud you have to have some faith in Adobe's future decision making, and I have to say right now I don't have that faith."

Ah, faith! There's the rub and I agree with you 100% - especially if you're a working (paid) professional. You want to trust that Adobe is going to continue to help you - I have said many times that it is up to Adobe to demonstrate and deliver improvement over time. Lets see how we do over the year and see what it amounts to.

Dennis


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 6, 2013 at 12:59:36 pm

I don´t have to wait, if I can trust in Adobe.
Their rashly and radical change showed already.
Their answers (?) to all the concerns also.
They are not the same company as before March 6th in my eyes
Dot


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Brett Sherman
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 6, 2013 at 1:43:10 pm

[Dennis Radeke] " You want to trust that Adobe is going to continue to help you - I have said many times that it is up to Adobe to demonstrate and deliver improvement over time. Lets see how we do over the year and see what it amounts to."

For me it's more than trust. I'm an occasional user of Adobe products. We have two Production Premium licenses that we update every 2-3 years. We're now in a conundrum. Why should we spend $1200/yr for a product we use sporadically? I'd rather have that $1200 for other uses that would have a greater impact on our day to day work.

If you figure we probably use Adobe products 60 hours a year, that's $20/hr. That's a pretty high rate. Adobe has made clear it doesn't care for me as a customer. So what do I do?

For now, keep our CS6 licenses as long as possible. After that buy an AE license and use Pixelmator and iDraw as Photoshop / Illustrator replacements. When I need Photoshop or Illustrator to make something to import into AE, then I'll use one of our Graphic Designers' computers. How getting rid of casual customers is a good business decision, I don't understand.



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Herb Sevush
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 6, 2013 at 2:10:42 pm

[Dennis Radeke] "If you theoretically doubled or tripled your fee to your customers could you get away with it? No. So, while I see people make this argument many times, it just doesn't hold water."

When trying to switch your customer base doubling and tripling your rate is not only "not unheard of," it's common. A DP, who charges $750 a day to shoot corporate decides to market himself to agencies for commercial work and ups his rate to $2000 day. The trick in raising your rate this way is in not being afraid to loose your current lower paying clients while trying to establish yourself in your new market. Does this sound like a company we know, a company whose own projections show them happily dropping 3 million customers as they readjust their client base. So while I don't think it's ordained that Adobe will raise their prices I do think the argument that it's possible holds a Lake Huron of water.

[Dennis Radeke] "I have said many times that it is up to Adobe to demonstrate and deliver improvement over time. Lets see how we do over the year and see what it amounts to."

I'm not worried about the coming year, I expect Adobe to be on it's best behavior as it tries to sell the whole notion of subscriptions. I'm worried about what's going to happen 3 years from now
to those dependent on the Adobe Cloud if/when the financial projections of Adobe corporate are not met and the temptation to squeeze a little more blood from the rock comes up. I'm getting ready to change workflows after almost 8 years of relative stability, I'm not looking forward to doing it again in a few years.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Juan Salvo
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 4, 2013 at 6:42:20 pm

"some of us probably spend more on coffee every month"
Try a week! 8-/

color/post/workflow
http://JuanSalvo.com


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Ridley Walker
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 4, 2013 at 7:30:06 pm

[Juan Salvo] ""some of us probably spend more on coffee every month"
Try a week! 8-/
"


Maybe you should consider a subscription to coffee. I hear the barrier to entry is lower than buying a cup of joe. ;+)


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Wendell Davis
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 5, 2013 at 1:44:23 pm

It is less the cost and more for me the exit strategy.

Adobe has made one more mistake.... When you cut out the new comers, the lower spenders you cut out those that are just learning. So now they learn on a different platform, like it and stay with it as they turn pro. Or, are forced to leave as many did with Avid early on due to price to FCP and FCP to Premiere in recent years because of Apple's brain fart.

Wendell



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David Lawrence
Re: Decision to make
on Jul 6, 2013 at 7:20:15 pm

[Ridley Walker] "Maybe you should consider a subscription to coffee. I hear the barrier to entry is lower than buying a cup of joe. ;+)"

http://www.craftcoffee.com

_______________________
David Lawrence
art~media~design~research
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publicmattersgroup.com
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