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Some fun with math...

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Rich Rubasch
Some fun with math...
on Jun 28, 2013 at 8:16:42 pm

I did some quick math...at $70 per seat of CC (I have 3 Production Premium licenses now) per month for a year I would spend $2520 for the three seats. Over three years, $7560. (New MacPro)

At the previous $399 upgrade cost I might choose to NOT upgrade depending on what they were offering....too many effects for matte painters or film wire fixers? No upgrade. Just saved $1197 (the old way), and even if I upgraded it would still be less than half of the current subscription price.

Is my math off? I thought CS5.5 Production Premium to CS6 was around $399. I saw the offer for $39 for the first year of CC today, which brings the three year price down to $6480. Still pretty painful and we are only using the Production Premium apps, we aren't a Premier house, rarely use Illustrator, mostly AE and Photoshop here.

See how the numbers aren't adding up for us?

I'm considering just a Photoshop or AE subscription only and use CS6 Illustrator and Premier as needed.

Rich Rubasch
Tilt Media Inc.
Video Production, Post, Studio Sound Stage
Founder/President/Editor/Designer/Animator
http://www.tiltmedia.com


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Tim Kolb
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jun 29, 2013 at 1:26:49 am

Hi Rich,

I don't think there is any question that the numbers don't work for someone who doesn't upgrade every cycle.

I also suspect that Adobe knows this, and some of this inconsistency in the revenue stream is what they're trying to mitigate. I'm sure they know they won't maintain 100% of the seats out there, but a software version that's two, or three versions back isn't helping Adobe pay for development any more...

I suspect the sales numbers will be smaller, but the revenue will be smoother.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Lance Bachelder
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jun 29, 2013 at 2:34:24 am

But you do get penalized for not upgrading every rev - for instance I still had the CS3 Suite (though I had paid for Premiere only through CS 5.5) and the price to upgrade to CS6 was like $900 - but I qualified for the $29 month via the Cloud so it was much cheaper. I'm still on the $29 for a couple more months but I'm now using the new suite. So for me the Cloud was less expensive and I'm very happy with it.

Lance Bachelder
Writer, Editor, Director
Downtown Long Beach, California
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1680680/?ref_=fn_al_nm_1


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Tim Kolb
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jun 29, 2013 at 3:26:03 am

Hi Lance,

I guess from my perspective, getting penalized for not upgrading every rev is a little different than paying some extra after waiting 4 versions and 5 years for CS6.

...or 5 versions and 6 years from CS3 to CC.

The tiering of the upgrades has flattened a lot in the last 5 years...illustrated by CS3 getting you the same discount as a CS6 or 5.5 owner would get.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Lance Bachelder
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jun 29, 2013 at 5:01:56 am

I guess my point was I only got the same discount with the Cloud version - the boxed CS6 version was way more money.

Lance Bachelder
Writer, Editor, Director
Downtown Long Beach, California
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1680680/?ref_=fn_al_nm_1


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Rich Rubasch
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jun 29, 2013 at 3:30:06 am

But the cost for three seats of Production premium even if they were $700 is STILL less than the $70/month on three seats of CC. And that was if I was penalized for not upgrading. If I stuck with every version upgrade (and if you do the math you certainly would!) it was WAY less than the cloud model.

Anyone else see an error in my calculations....Lance is happy now with his $29 introductory rate, but once it jumps to $69 soon, and probably $79 in the future it's going to quickly be more expensive than the perpetual upgrade path of the old days.

At least Adobe could have said "It's going to cost more but you'll get more," assuming you were like me and only using Production Premium and not the full Creative Suite.

Rich Rubasch
Tilt Media Inc.
Video Production, Post, Studio Sound Stage
Founder/President/Editor/Designer/Animator
http://www.tiltmedia.com


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Tim Kolb
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jun 29, 2013 at 3:51:13 am

Are you using the Teams version of CC?

Individual is 49.99/mth retail...(29.99 special)

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Lance Bachelder
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jun 29, 2013 at 5:10:10 am

Correct - mine will go to $49 per month. Probably best for smaller companies to buy individual seats?

I guess from Adobe's perspective we're getting a bargain with CC because we get virtually every app they have. Production Premium was production based suite that did not include apps like InDesign, Dreamweaver, Lightroom, Acrobat etc. We're essentially getting the Master Collection now which was over 3 grand. Of course if all you use is Premiere, After Effects and Photoshop you may not see the value?

Lance Bachelder
Writer, Editor, Director
Downtown Long Beach, California
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1680680/?ref_=fn_al_nm_1


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jun 29, 2013 at 10:52:11 am

You are not "legally" allowed to take more than one subscription as the same person (It´s possible to create two accounts, but regarding to Adobes business terms it´s not allowed - you have to take a team subscription in that case)

You can make what ever math you want - The CashCow is more expensive in EVERY case. It´s only a matter of time, when this point is reached.
It´s also not a matter if you ever upgraded or not with the old model. Only a matter of time.
Even their worst case scenario: A Master Collection user, who always upgraded is still paying more now (but it lasts 10.5 years till that point).
All other user pay more than before after a couple of years (3-6).

Adobe doesn´t negate that. And they are in full knowledge about, that this will cost them min. the half of their users.
(Not very tricky to make the math, that if they lose half of their users, the rest has to be taken to milk the income.
So nothing gets cheaper - absolutely no question and no one can tell me something different).
And I take every bet, that the CashCow fees will raise significant in the coming years. Also compatibility problems will raise.
(It´s so obvious: Don´t you notice, how rashly and radical they changed? That´s a strategy. And with that - everything has to fit - they want to built and press us into a no way out solution.)

The "take all or nothing" solution is the same thing I hate at the bakery or pizza: "Get 3 for the price of 2".
It´s useless and stupid if I don´t need all that stuff.
For the most it´s a terrible hard and long run to become a professional in all of their Core-Apps.

BtW: If you are an former optimum user of Adobe Software - you are double pis.ed on.
Spend ten thousands of Euros for the SW and all the upgrades of Adobes MasterCollection over the years (here in EU the prices for the Adobe SW are nearby or more than double - not only the CashCow) and now have to pay the same price as an user who has a never upgraded minimum Suite.
And if not - you can throw away all your PlugIns and establish new workflows, invest in knowledge and competitors.
Many Adobe users are already dependent - with CashCow or not - as competition is small or zero in some fields.

But all the price issues are beside the main concerns with that BS, which caused me to turn my back to Adobe.
Nothing against, that they need money to develop solutions.
But if I have a look on, what companies are bought by them at the moment and last year... It seems they really try to build "somewhat" like a cloud marketing solution.
Something they even don´t know exactly themselve.
Rashly and helpless - and they are very late with this.
I wonder if they spend much money in development of Core-Apps in future.
To me it seems not, and they also said, that there will be more and more cloud functionality.
I´m not interested in one more cloud from a other company. Buying footage there, or post my portfolio or creating solutions for Pads.

But it´s not longer my problem.
Have fun in this "cloud" if you think it´s good for you.


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Lance Bachelder
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jun 29, 2013 at 5:07:01 pm

Well Adobe has the right to charge whatever they think the market will bear and we have the choice to use their software or not. For me there was no choice because Premiere Pro 6 was not good enough for my day to day editing needs - CC is. I make a lot of money with Photoshop and could honestly still be using Photoshop CS3 for years to come. Same with After Effects and Illustrator. But because of the huge improvements in Premiere I have opted for CC.

Starting in August my monthly bill will go back to $49.99 per month USD. Assuming I work 5 days per week (20 days per month) and 8 hours per day, my CC subscription is costing me 31 cents per working hour. I just need to bill my clients 32 cents per hour and I'm in profit! Keeping my fingers crossed that my math holds out...

Lance Bachelder
Writer, Editor, Director
Downtown Long Beach, California
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1680680/?ref_=fn_al_nm_1


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jun 29, 2013 at 11:25:29 pm

Well, 32 cents/hour sounds like a very little amount. 0.5 ct/min sounds even smaller and 0,01 ct/sec is nearly nothing.
Beside the price is not my main concern - it is an amount.
And I would be not good in business, if I still accept a raise, only because it seems to be that small.
Never had a problem with paying my master collections (MC = $4650 here in EU & ca $1000 upgrades a year) and upgrades.
But I will not subscribe to a solution, where I lose everything after subscription: Full access to my files, and the SW I paid for.
So the CashCow is not only more expensive - you also have to add the costs for using your (clients) files after subscription.
----------
CC = Cash Cow = Terminating the word "Archive" in digital future = Lifelong dependency = NoGo = Never


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Walter Soyka
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jun 29, 2013 at 5:20:29 pm

The math looks better for new users, as it takes several years before you recoup the initial up-front cost of the suite, and then several years more if you consider paid updates during that time. The math also looks better if you consider the value of the Master Collection suite and upgrades, since this is what you're effectively getting (whether you use the other apps available or not).

But I think the whole comparison with previous upgrade pricing is fundamentally flawed. If you are arguing that Adobe is effectively raising their rates with the move to subscription pricing, why do you simultaneously assume they would not have raised the cost of perpetual licenses and upgrades? They were tightening their upgrade restrictions before they switched over.

Others have proposed Adobe could offer more targeted subscriptions with fewer apps at a reduced price. What apps are you interested in, and what do you think is a reasonable rate to pay?

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Rich Rubasch
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jun 30, 2013 at 1:23:13 am

Makes sense....will Adobe make a subscription for the old collections like Production Premium or Design Premium? Also was not aware I cannot, as a company have more than one subscription in my name? Why not? I own the company and I need three copies. Do I put subscriptions in my employees names? Odd.

We all know that a company that lures us in with a low introductory rate will be socked later with higher and higher rates and they'll have us by the...

And yes, it probably is best to get into it now and have the whole collection for this low monthly price. Much less attractive who started on After Effects when it was Cosa and Photoshop 1.5.

Rich Rubasch
Tilt Media Inc.
Video Production, Post, Studio Sound Stage
Founder/President/Editor/Designer/Animator
http://www.tiltmedia.com


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Tim Kolb
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jul 2, 2013 at 4:02:17 am

[Rich Rubasch] "Also was not aware I cannot, as a company have more than one subscription in my name?"

It's not really your -name- per se...you just need 3 Adobe email IDs as their system doesn't know how to assign more than one seat to an email ID as there are no longer serial numbers...it's a strange oversight on their part, but it's not impossible to work around.

Rich1 (at) Tilt...

Rich2 (at) Tilt...

etc...

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Herb Sevush
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jun 30, 2013 at 3:33:57 pm

[Walter Soyka] "What apps are you interested in, and what do you think is a reasonable rate to pay?"

The Production Premium bundle at 29.95 with a first year for PP owners at 19.95 would be reasonable.

Of course this is moot for me because Adobe can't seem to make a decent multicam feature. At the moment they're having problems making multicam work at all, but even when they fix it, their conception of multicam is incredibly limited. This reminds me of when PPro first came out and they totally misunderstood how audio tracks were used by professionals. It took them about 7 years till PPro 5 before they finally got it right. When they get something fundamentally wrong it seems like they have no way to figure out what to do.

Oh well, back to FCP7.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Paul King
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jul 1, 2013 at 1:55:23 pm

That's right Herb.

Adobe's attitude to their customers resembles a company with products that are mature and stable. Premiere Pro has only just become usable.
Up until CS6 it was a work in progress, and even now it is released with bugs that aren't fixed.



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Tim Kolb
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jul 2, 2013 at 3:58:49 am

[Paul King] "Up until CS6 it was a work in progress, and even now it is released with bugs that aren't fixed."

All software has bugs.

It depends on what your workflow is as to whether it's a deal-breaker, or something you don't even notice.

TimK,
Director, Consultant
Kolb Productions,

Adobe Certified Instructor


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Wendell Davis
Re: Some fun with math...
on Jul 4, 2013 at 3:58:16 pm

All comes down to future accessibility! Stop paying - no more access even to your personal files, family being the biggest. I would rather pay the price and own than rent and lose access in the future. The there is also loss of editing when you have no web access. This is not like leasing a car, and even then you can buy it outright at the end of the lease.

Adobe has lost me. No upgrades/oooppppsss leasing with Adobe.

Wendell Davis
Senior Producer, Director, Editor, DP



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