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Aindreas Gallagher
adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 19, 2013 at 6:54:16 pm

It's another way of looking at it but:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-57589987-92/adobe-ceo-were-off-to-a-good-s...

Q At your Max conference in May, you said you had an installed base of 10 million people. What fraction of them will go subscriptions?

A Narayen: We hope to see 4 million by 2015. We like to understand what it would take to attract more customers. Those are the public targets we set.

Q So what customer types are you leaving behind? What's the 6 million you're leaving off the table?

----------

that's a really good question - its not hard to think that quite a few people will have made alternate arrangements if they've stayed out for three years.
And we're talking about six million people.

I'm not sure I understand the sheer scale of the customer base write off involved, but there you go. Shantanyu is obviously happy to milk a reduced group pretty damn hard. have fun with it everyone, I'd say the monthly bills are going to get increasingly interesting after 2015.

because by 2016/17 adobe are largely going to have what they have as a subscriber base, and all that's left for them to do, to increase profit, is milk the hell out of that subscriber group.

And all this supposes that the new web tools currently eating their lunch post flash, don't completely eviscerate their hope of growth in that area over that three year cycle. then all they are left doing is milking print, photography and video. It could all get pretty unpleasant after year three.
I half suspect a lot of the board, and the guys we know, will be gone or moved on by then.

http://www.adobe2014.tumblr.com
#adobe2014

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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David Lawrence
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 19, 2013 at 7:35:13 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "It could all get pretty unpleasant after year three.
I half suspect a lot of the board, and the guys we know, will be gone or moved on by then."


No wonder so many of them are already dumping their stock.

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Ricardo Marty
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 19, 2013 at 7:41:05 pm

I would think it would be more logical and productive to have 4 million subscribers and 6 million potentcial perpetual upgraders.

But I guess to them a dollar in hand outweights logic.

Ricardo


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Craig Seeman
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 19, 2013 at 10:19:51 pm

Cutting off 60% of your customer base, now there's a strategy to inspire the programmers to innovate.



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Ridley Walker
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 12:11:36 am

[Craig Seeman] "Cutting off 60% of your customer base, now there's a strategy to inspire the programmers to innovate.
"


60% of Adobe's current customer base, that should be attractive to the competition.


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Michael Hendrix
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 12:12:57 am

I think they are pursuing a different model than you think. If you look at the services they are building around the cloud, that is where the money will add up.

Look at SendNow, EchoSign, Business Catalyst, etc. they want you in the Adobe ecosystem and then add on services to your monthly.

I think their eyes are on 4 million users paying $50 for the foundation and most of those 4 million adding on $20, $50, $100 or more in business services, web packages, storage, etc.

I know most video people will not add on many services, but how many web developers will design, host, manage websites from one provider?



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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 12:52:46 am

[Michael Hendrix] "I think they are pursuing a different model than you think. If you look at the services they are building around the cloud, that is where the money will add up.

Look at SendNow, EchoSign, Business Catalyst, etc. they want you in the Adobe ecosystem and then add on services to your monthly.
"


god but it's gone so far with adobe right? I can't believe this is the same company at this point. They are quite far gone? I get that the web tools are destroyed after flash, but the 12 month deadline corral of everyone left onto the subscription rails is almost shocking in the end.

how did they end up here? how did it get so bad for them?
I nearly can't believe adobe ended up as this sudden leftover, scrabbling for subscribers, end game situation.

the recent New York Times design director just washed his hands of Photoshop - very publicly.

http://www.netmagazine.com/interviews/khoi-vinh-using-sketch-instead-photos...

You could argue that parts of the suite are falling apart in front of our eyes. Imaging and vector, as well as web creation tools, are dying in front of shantanyu narayen's eyes.

It's just weird. they ended up in a weird place adobe, making weird decisions. You'd nearly feel for the company as was.

either way - that suite is literally peeling apart in front of us - maybe not the video parts; but definitely the web, illustration, vector imaging parts.
maybe nobody touch the adobe deal for a few months? literally nobody.

let's see how adobe feel then. it's a free market. and half their tools are publicly dying on the vine.
let's see how long it takes for the investor groups to figure that financial metric out.

http://www.adobe2014.tumblr.com
#adobe2014

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Oliver Peters
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 1:44:10 am

One CNET writer opined in their blog that Adobe was simply no longer interested in the 80/20 user. The one that wants 80% of the features for 20% of the cost. They have left Lightroom and Photoshop Elements on perpetual to service that market.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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David Lawrence
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 2:03:46 am

[Oliver Peters] "One CNET writer opined in their blog that Adobe was simply no longer interested in the 80/20 user. The one that wants 80% of the features for 20% of the cost. They have left Lightroom and Photoshop Elements on perpetual to service that market."

I guess the thing that completely boggles my mind is the sheer mountain of money Adobe seems willing to walk away from. We're talking tens, maybe hundreds of millions of dollars left on the table. All for a DRM scheme which has already been broken.

They don't even need to go back to perpetual sales, a fair buy-out plan would make everything fine again. I just don't understand how a company could leave so much free money on the table.

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Oliver Peters
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 2:08:10 am

FYI - the referenced blog article:

http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-6451_7-57589734/ready-or-not-compulsory-creati...

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Chris Pettit
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 23, 2013 at 3:14:23 am

"They don't even need to go back to perpetual sales, a fair buy-out plan would make everything fine again. I just don't understand how a company could leave so much free money on the table."

Boy is that the truth. I keep wondering what in the world is preventing them from just addressing the issue of buyouts and being done with it. So many developers have made this clear, but still nothing but silence.

What a weird company...


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Ricardo Marty
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 23, 2013 at 6:19:34 pm

Because they have to stick to their plan of 1.2 million subscribers by the end of 2013. You can be sure that they will do anything possible to make those numbers or appear to make them, if they dont then they will have to rethink if they do it will be a longer wait to see if they make the 4 million.. This is why its so important that we dont subscribe.

Ricardo
Regardless of the outcome I will never subcribe. I will be checking smoke,fcpx,motion,vegas,edius, avid some of these will be my tools if adobe continues this madness.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 2:08:42 am

Maybe what you say is the answer to all this stupidity from adobe.

Maybe the only way they can sell most of the products is to bundle them with the few that still have relevance.

And pushing it down the throut to all who use the still relevant adobe products.

How can you understand a company that is giving out the use of thousands of dollars in apps for about 20 bucks a year each?

Maybe its true that cc is key for their survival but not for the reasons the give.

I am sure that if they reduced the prices and charged a monthly maintenace fee there troubles would be less and would be making more.

Ricardo


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Chris Harlan
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 4:44:11 am

[Aindreas Gallagher] "the recent New York Times design director just washed his hands of Photoshop - very publicly.

http://www.netmagazine.com/interviews/khoi-vinh-using-sketch-instead-photos.....
"


I'm not sure that's an accurate description of the link you just sent me to. Yes, he's using Sketch as his primary tool, because it is better, more specialized, for what he is currently doing, though he will still go back to Photoshop for things that Photoshop does better. He was also not Design Director for the New York Times, but rather for NYTimes.com.

I fear it fails to make your point, though it is quite dramatic.


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Jim Wiseman
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 8:49:36 am

How many people get the NYT on the web vs the tree kill edition? I'd say his opinion is thought out and has merit.

Jim Wiseman
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Chris Harlan
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 9:10:46 am

[Jim Wiseman] "How many people get the NYT on the web vs the tree kill edition? I'd say his opinion is thought out and has merit."

Apparently you didn't read the article, Jim. Or my comment. And, being the designer for the New York Times web site is a fine achievement. AND, I said absolutely nothing about the value of his opinion. Things are getting a little chaotic and slipshod in the shadow of everybody's anger. My point was thatI felt that Aindreas' summation of events misrepresented the article he linked to.


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Sandeep Sajeev
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 12:46:13 pm

I agree, Aindreas is getting a little carried away :) What I did find interesting in that link is the fact that an organisation of that scale is considering Pixelmator as an alternative, and that there is a sense that bloat/clunkiness is what is driving their decision making.

But this is still web design, if the Print guys start complaining, then Adobe has a problem.

As an aside, because someone asked me to keep them updated on another long-forgotten thread, I walked through the piracy street in South Mumbai yesterday, and copies of Photoshop CC, Illustrator CC and After Effects CC, are already on sale and apparently selling well.

Which means that the new pricing/distribution model is not making any difference to the piracy problem.


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Chris Harlan
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 4:55:31 pm

[Sandeep Sajeev] " I walked through the piracy street in South Mumbai yesterday, and copies of Photoshop CC, Illustrator CC and After Effects CC, are already on sale and apparently selling well.

Which means that the new pricing/distribution model is not making any difference to the piracy problem.
"


Ain't that a trip.


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Jim Wiseman
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 11:29:01 pm

Could finance a trip to India. (just kidding)

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1,Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.3, Premiere Pro 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Avid MC, Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 8Gb SSD, G5 Quadcore PCIe


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 3:12:17 pm

yes. alright there Christopher - he was the design director for the NY Times Online - but Khoi Vinh is quite an influential dude - and I don't think you're reading the article right. Let me give you some paragraphs again to read that clearly speak to his distaste for the application, and adobe's latter day approach to software:

net: What part of the Photoshop experience was frustrating you enough that you went looking for an alternative?
Khoi Vinh: There are too many to fully enumerate, but the big one is that Photoshop has never been focused on user interface design. The number of its features that are truly helpful for UX and UI designers comprise maybe twenty percent of the whole app. So to use Photoshop for this purpose is to shoulder that outstanding, largely useless eighty per cent of features. In practice, the price I pay for that is heavy, heavy downloads, frequent crashes, useless or irrelevant-to-me features constantly getting in the way, and a hefty price tag.


ok so there he is mostly saying that its bloated and not optomised for his tasks. but lets read the next one together Chris, because this is a far more expansive point about adobe and the state of most of their apps:

.net: In your blog post you've described the Sketch approach as 'un-Adobe-like'. What do you mean by this?
KV: Sketch is purpose-built for user interface design, so every feature is crafted around those ideas. It chucks out the preconceptions that decades of Adobe apps have built around… well, around Adobe itself. For the past decade-plus, Adobe has been focused on an "insurrectionist strategy," in my view. They've tried to build an OS inside my resident OS, and they've written tremendous amounts of code to do that. At the state they're at now with this approach, the justification for crafting features seems much closer to, "Well we do it this way because this is the way Adobe does things," rather than, "We do it this way because this is what the user expects."


whats interesting there is that he is mirroring a distaste for recent photoshop held by many. Me included. the last iteration of the GUI that didn't feel like janky crud in operation was three or four revs ago.

The thing to really keep in mind here is that he is saying he does not find it fit for purpose for his set of tasks, and also that he broadly finds photoshop, bloated, wildly overblown in features, and cumbersome.

the problem adobe would have would be if then say illustrators found a more specific, cheaper, lighter better coded application too

like this for instance: http://www.madewithmischief.com/

I haven't really enjoyed the process of actully using photoshop for quite a while - its mostly ever since adobe started building it out of weird flash/air stuff - or whatever the hell it is they are using.

You could argue that adobe have picked a really bad time to make everyone fundamentally re-asess the actual worth of parts of that suite.

http://www.adobe2014.tumblr.com
#adobe2014

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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David Lawrence
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 4:59:41 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "You could argue that adobe have picked a really bad time to make everyone fundamentally re-asess the actual worth of parts of that suite."

I think this is an excellent point. The only reason I upgraded to CS6 was because of Premiere. The rest of the suite - Photoshop, Illustrator, etc. have done everything I need and more since CS4.

We in post have the most to benefit from the newest version of the Pr since it appears to bring many of the key features we had in Legacy. For everyone else, it doesn't matter nearly as much and there are more alternatives.

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Oliver Peters
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 5:07:11 pm

[David Lawrence] "We in post have the most to benefit from the newest version of the Pr since it appears to bring many of the key features we had in Legacy."

I would also suggest, that as much as we all "know and love" AE and Premiere ;-) the video division of Adobe is probably the least important to the company's overall bottom line.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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David Lawrence
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 6:03:06 pm

[Oliver Peters] "I would also suggest, that as much as we all "know and love" AE and Premiere ;-) the video division of Adobe is probably the least important to the company's overall bottom line."

What I find totally bizarre is that according to Adobe, even the Creative Cloud itself isn't the most important thing to the company's overall bottom line anymore.

They think the big opportunity is in the Marketing Cloud.

According to their May 2013 Investor Relations Presentation, which you can download here:

http://adobe.ly/16cvJjn

Creative Cloud is an $8 Billion marketing opportunity.

But Marketing Cloud represents a $12 Billion marketing opportunity.

Here's a screen grab of what they're selling with the Marketing Cloud:



Can anyone explain to me what this gibberish actually means? What are the actual products and what do they do? Has Adobe completely forgotten what business they're in?

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Oliver Peters
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 6:42:03 pm

[David Lawrence] "Can anyone explain to me what this gibberish actually means? What are the actual products and what do they do? Has Adobe completely forgotten what business they're in?"

Marketing Cloud is all of the back-end web services and Flash services they provide to enterprise customers. Adobe sees the world as an end-to-end content monetization opportunity. Content creation (Creative Cloud tools) is the front half of that process (starting with Story) and Marketing Cloud is the back half.

Here's how the process/vision works in broad strokes:

1. Write a character ("character Z") into a script using Story
2. The metadata from Story carries through the creative tools into the distribution format
3. That metadata is tied to a Flash (or HTML5-based) website
4. Fans online search for all instances of "character Z" in the available online episode
5. The metadata allows you to find scenes with "character Z"
6. Such searches are monetized in some fashion

Marketing Cloud comprises the suite of middleware to enable these features to be possible.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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David Lawrence
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 6:50:19 pm

[Oliver Peters] "Marketing Cloud comprises the suite of middleware to enable these features to be possible."

Got it. Seems like another platform ownership play since Flash didn't turn out the way they were hoping.

Interesting, though I'm quite skeptical. Thank you Oliver!

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Chris Harlan
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 7:08:09 pm

Before you totally dismiss it, think of the view that Netflix has of its users, and think of being able to offer that kind of view to any large corporation that does not have a similarly captive audience. Add into that the across-the-board security and stability features you get with something like the .pdf platform, and a serious way of quantifying ad performance, I think you have something potentially very interesting.


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Shawn Miller
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 6:45:08 pm

[David Lawrence] "
Can anyone explain to me what this gibberish actually means? What are the actual products and what do they do?..."


Yes, in short it's about providing products and services that gather, sort, analyze and output data about the habits of online users. You tweet here, reports about that tweet (popularity, influence ratings, etc) appear 'there'. You say something about wanting a steak on Facebook, jump on a flight to another state, and ads for local steak houses pop up in your browser after you land. It can get much more complex... but that's it in a nutshell. Think about the advertising in Minority Report, it's highly personal and it's everywhere. There's gold in digital marketing, and everyone wants in. :-)

Shawn



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Brett Sherman
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 22, 2013 at 3:30:06 pm

[Oliver Peters] "I would also suggest, that as much as we all "know and love" AE and Premiere ;-) the video division of Adobe is probably the least important to the company's overall bottom line."

No doubt true. But it seems likely to be the only division where growth is possible. Flash - Dead. Web Tools - Dying. Print - It'll be there, but the market is decreasing rapidly. Of course, whether or not Adobe sees this is questionable.



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Chris Harlan
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 5:11:02 pm

[David Lawrence] "I think this is an excellent point. The only reason I upgraded to CS6 was because of Premiere. The rest of the suite - Photoshop, Illustrator, etc. have done everything I need and more since CS4.
"


I'd pretty much agree with that, other than maybe some nice additions to AE. Well, there are also some photoshop video treatment things that are nice and useful. And, audition is actually quite useful. But, yes, overall, that's probably rightish.


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Chris Harlan
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 5:44:49 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "yes. alright there Christopher - he was the design director for the NY Times Online - but Khoi Vinh is quite an influential dude"

I'm not saying he's not, but he's talking exclusively about UI design and nothing to do with photography, which is why I point out the distinction. If he held the post that you originally ascribed to him, his principle concern would be with how Photoshop deals with photographs. He is primarily interested in vector work. I think that's an important distinction and not a nit pick.

[Aindreas Gallagher] "whats interesting there is that he is mirroring a distaste for recent photoshop held by many. Me included. the last iteration of the GUI that didn't feel like janky crud in operation was three or four revs ago.
"


No he's not. He's saying he hasn't liked Adobe's general philosophy for more than a decade. He doesn't like the concept of CS. Is that how long you haven't liked what Adobe is doing?

In this article, he is lauding Sketch because of its vector capabilities. In fact, in this very article he says "For that kind of work, which is closer to rendering than to interface design, I'm perfectly happy to go back to a raster program like Photoshop." Yes, he does go on to say that he likes new apps, and look forward to a day that he doesn't have to depend on Photoshop at all, but I don't think this is a new feeling with him. For him, its a decade and a half, of having to make do with an App that was not primarily designed for his uses, but for the use of photographers and other non-vector artists.

So, no--he's not writing a love letter to Adobe, but its not a sudden break in ranks, or an angry unexpected divorce, either. The things he dislikes, he's disliked for a very long time. He apparently thinks the whole CS thing was a bad idea. I don't.


[Aindreas Gallagher] "You could argue that adobe have picked a really bad time to make everyone fundamentally re-asess the actual worth of parts of that suite.
"


Yes, we can agree on that.


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 6:17:40 pm

[Chris Harlan] "I'm not saying he's not, but he's talking exclusively about UI design and nothing to do with photography, which is why I point out the distinction. If he held the post that you originally ascribed to him, his principle concern would be with how Photoshop deals with photographs. He is primarily interested in vector work. I think that's an important distinction and not a nit pick."

actually that is a good point. So stipulated - he was the online design director dude.



[Chris Harlan] " He doesn't like the concept of CS."

you're pulling that out of the air/reading it wrong there - he never mentions CS - what he was referring to was the period after which adobe started to ignore both host OS's? - its the time say the waiting cursor in PS turned into that janky circle of circles - they stopped using proper native code building tools respectively, for either OS, that's the insurrectionist movement he was referring to chris - not the bundling of applications.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Chris Harlan
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 6:56:54 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "its the time say the waiting cursor in PS turned into that janky circle of circles - they stopped using proper native code building tools respectively, for either OS, that's the insurrectionist movement he was referring to chris - not the bundling of applications."

Okay. Makes sense. I just assumed, given the time period he's talking about, but what you say makes more sense.

BUT, he is talking about something that has irked him for more than a decade. It's not recent. That is my point. You are holding him up as an example of recent dissatisfaction.

And, this is all getting silly. Its not a big deal. I just followed your link expecting one thing from your setup, and got what I felt was something else. No biggie.


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Oliver Peters
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 7:16:13 pm

The bottom line is that in Adobe's vision, the Creative Cloud is merely a means to an end. It's an opportunity to develop products that build in the necessary metadata to enable the real moneymaker to be possible. That way distribution companies don't have to re-invent the wheel in order to generate the same metadata - after the fact.

Now, not everyone within the CC product development teams sees it the same way. Clearly there's some very advanced science going on that doesn't necessarily play into this grand scheme. Nevertheless, that's the 30,000 ft. view.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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David Lawrence
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 8:41:25 pm

[Oliver Peters] "The bottom line is that in Adobe's vision, the Creative Cloud is merely a means to an end. It's an opportunity to develop products that build in the necessary metadata to enable the real moneymaker to be possible. That way distribution companies don't have to re-invent the wheel in order to generate the same metadata - after the fact."

If Adobe's future core business focus is providing middleware for enterprise marketing with creative tools and technologies simply being a means to that end, then I think it does help explain why there's such a huge disconnect between the creative community and the recent decisions of Adobe senior management.

[Oliver Peters] "Now, not everyone within the CC product development teams sees it the same way. Clearly there's some very advanced science going on that doesn't necessarily play into this grand scheme. "

I'm glad there are people with other opinions in product development. I hope they'll be heard. Adobe's clearly working on some amazing creative technologies, but if everything's ultimately seen in the service of a marketing middleware agenda, I think the roll out to customers will get botched as we've see with CC.

Maybe senior management thinks the commodification of digital creative tools makes this change in business focus necessary for future growth, but I think they're looking at it exactly backwards. I see a huge opportunity for innovation and better digital creative tools. The Creative Suite may be mature and robust but it's by no means perfect. There's so much possibility for new and better UI and workflows. It just takes imagination.

Marketing on the other hand may be a big moneymaker, but as as something to aspire to? Sigh. I'll let the late, great, Bill Hicks have the last word on that:






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Ricardo Marty
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 9:24:07 pm

Sooner or later they are going to have to decide what business they are in. Who know If the cloud management gets big they might spinoff the cretive content tool. Maybe Apple,Avid,Sony or Blackmagic will aquire it. (me dreaming again)

Ricardo


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Al Bergstein
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 20, 2013 at 10:24:44 pm

I haven't read every post here yet, but many of them. I think there was a mistake in understanding right off the bat. That Adobe has an installed base of xx million does not mean that they have made anything off a lot of that base for a long time. There are old installions, years old, that Adobe derives nothing from. It's like MSFT saying that the installed base of Windows is a bizillion. they haven't made a dime on many of those for years.

So to say that they will see 50% of that base move to subscription where they can count on an income stream should be seen as positive, not negative.(I'm speaking purely from an analyst perspective not as those of use having to spend the money!)

I for one am just going to sit tight and see how it plays out over the next few years. The current versions of Lightroom, Premiere (6.0 and CC), along with other tools should carry me well into 2014, and by then, maybe we will see if FPX is actually serious about being a professional competitive toolset, and the new Mac servers will be out and debugged.

To be clear, this is NOT like Apple unilaterally pulling their product from the market, with no warning to their independent 3rd parties, their big and small customers, etc. This is a company in transition, still making a commitment to go forward with professional tools. My advice to all who can, is to take a deep breath, get a beverage of your choice,and wait and see.

Al


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Paul King
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 22, 2013 at 3:05:10 am

Chris - whatever was stated and/or intended from the article and whatever the the time frame referred to, the most important thing is that the criticism coincided with the change to CC and not before.

Everyone has issues with any or all of the apps.

But what has sparked this entire debate is the arrogance of Adobe.
It was arrogant of them to believe their software had reached a level that people would subscribe to it rather than own it.
It was arrogant to ignore all the users that had paid for upgrades and even purchased CS6 outright but ending their upgrade path.
It's arrogant to expect users to pay for upgrades that address bugs that should have been fixed with software patches.
It was arrogant to charge people for CS4, CS5 and CS5.5 (the transition from 32bit to 64bit) as upgrades.

Adobe do what they want to do for their own motivation, it really isn't about the users or the apps. I beta tested for over 5 years and they treated us marginally better than regular users. They fixed the things that were easy and ignored the things that were harder but necessary. All along they thought they were doing us a favour and that their engineers should be worshiped for their efforts.

Premiere is an example of an app that has been rubbish for years. Totally unusable for professional work and largely ignored by the industry. It's only the timing of the FCPX debacle that gave Premiere this segment on a platter. But Premiere still has significant quality and rendering faults that Adobe ignores, not to mention the same list of cheesy effects it's had since Premiere V5 (c1996). Same for AE. While it's got a much better heritage it's development has been poor and patched. The renderer in AE is rubbish. We live in a world of multiple CPUs and AE can only be described as unstable when it addresses all of them. The plugin developers for AE combined could actually build a much better app, look at what Video Copilot can do inside of AE!

So in this debate everyone has speculated how Adobe will make money through CC. It's easy, slow down the pace of development. They have already done it. They removed Encore, claiming it's got no where to go, but they couldn't be bothered separating it from the Premiere installer. That's just rubbish service, but you have to pay them every month regardless of how they perform. Regardless of the number of subscribers, they get paid every month before they've done any work. Let's not forget they started the cloud a year ago so they are well placed to tune the development output directly in line with the revenue stream. The first version of CC update makes that very clear.



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Peter Wiley
Re: adobe expect to have halved their customer base by 2016
on Jun 24, 2013 at 2:55:04 pm

If Adobe are betting the farm on online marketing, they might do well to think again.

The following comments by Bob Garfield are instructive:



Executive Producer
Arbour Media LLC


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