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The Cloud: An Opposing View

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Michael Hendrix
The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 2:32:34 pm

As I have been reading through this forum, I almost feel like the title should be changed to Adobe Creative Cloud: The Vent. That's okay because most do feel the need to vent instead of debate.

So in the spirit of debate, I want to provide an opposing view. For the record, I wish they would offer both options: cloud and licensing. I feel like Adobe has walked right up to the edge of domination with the state of Apple and Avid and this is a huge bump in the road.

I also understand all views and to some extent agree. What I don't agree with is the conspiracy theory stuff...."They will triple the price when they lock us in", "They want to monitor my content". It's just not really a productive debate and will drive you mad with theories.

As far as the company, I have no insight into Adobe. Can't open their accounting books, can't sit in on the board meetings, can't be a part of forecast meetings, can't figure out if every employee get's a 3% raise, what are my expenses in 5 years? And Adobe is a for profit company, they are publicly traded, they are in business to make money as we all are. It's all assumptions as to why... are they being greedy, controlling, unreasonable or are they just building a better business plan to provide better service for the future.

For some of you, a strange person has walked up in front of your house and sat on the curb. Immediately you have called the police and want him arrested because he may be a threat to your normal.

Now for my situation. I have a full time job in a very large companies communication department. My guess, probably at least 500 seats of some Adobe product. I have talked with the people responsible for licenses to find out if they have a game plan for the new cloud model. They don't. It's a wait and see thing. No matter how much I rely on Adobe, I could be shut down by IT because they may not allow cloud access. In my corporate world, the cloud is a dirty word. That opens up a huge can of worms to data security folks because it presents many many problems. Understandable. They could shut it down based on that alone and I will be screwed (not really from the Premiere aspect but for the other tools that I use daily). We will see soon.

Personally, I freelance. The cloud is a great deal for me because I have no large out of pocket expenses and I am always up-to-date. For the cost of one dub or upload to a digital signage server, I have paid for my month, done. I have also already talked to a few people about more work because of the ability to collaborate with no worries of wrong software versions and the potential of Adobe Anywhere. So I am actually seeing the possibility of work down the road because of the cloud.

I was talking with someone the other day and threw two scenarios out that I have seen played out.

1. You either are starting in the production business or have worked full time for someone for a long time but are now going at it alone. To start, it's you and a laptop. A client comes to you with a project and you charge them $500 for a day of editing. It's a fair rate because you only have one edit room in your very small facility and you are the only employee. Business is good, nope it is great. Two years later, you have three edit bays, a studio and a green room with snacks. You also have two full time editors and someone to do billing. Same client comes back to make a change to the project. Now you say:

"It will cost you $1000 for a one day edit."
Client: "But I paid $500 two years ago."
"But i have a bigger facility and hey, you can go down to the green room and have some snacks!"
Client: "But I want the same room, same time, same rate. I am not using the other edit bays and I can bring my own snacks."

How many of you would do it for $500 even if this does not fit in your new business model?

2. How many of you DON'T give out your project files to clients? Why not? So they have to come back to you to edit those files and pay you?
Sound familiar?

Once again, wish Adobe would offer both options but for me, even if they did, I would be a cloud subscriber.

Just my two cents, I'm sure some will ad yours and that is great, it's what a debate is about!



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Gary Huff
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 2:42:54 pm

[Michael Hendrix] "How many of you would do it for $500 even if this does not fit in your new business model?"

But that's not quite the case. The better analogy is that you're still editing on a laptop, but now delivering proofs over FTP/Dropbox/some cloud service.

And you don't charge your client $500 anymore...you charge your client $50 per month, and if they fail to pay, then their project disappears.


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Michael Hendrix
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 2:48:45 pm

Not really, because you provided them with a DVD, Quicktime or whatever file they wanted. They don't have to continue to pay you to use the file or DVD only if they want to make a change to the file or DVD.



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Ben Mullins
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 2:51:05 pm

It's mostly just a lack of stability that I'm annoyed about. I love Adobe products (I'm also a CC subscriber) but after the whole shake-up of FCPX and looking elsewhere for an NLE I don't want to have to do the whole thing again because everybody abandons Premiere too. Not that I have to follow the masses but if you're not cutting on one of the industry standards it's harder to get work. I don't begrudge Adobe making money but I'm not a fan of subscription only and I don't like the idea of not owning anything after 5 or 10 years+ of renting.

All software companies other than Apple & Adobe should be taking notes on how not to manage PR.

Looking forward to Premiere CS NEXT though! I seem to remember positive things being said about that some time ago...



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Paul Neumann
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 3:11:18 pm

Another corporate perspective from my end is this: Last spring I ordered a CC subscription for myself @ $30 a month and the first time I submitted an expense report for it it was kicked back with an "unauthorized software purchase" flag. So I told them they needed to buy me a CS6 upgrade then which they did (total hassle waiting for it to hit our catalogs, windows and mac SS#s, etc) despite the fact that the upgrade cost them about $200 more over the cost of the subscription. Whatever. Not my money.

Fast forward to now and I'm a CC customer again out of my own pocket @ $20 a month for the first year. Rather than even seek Corporate approval I'm just using it and paying for it easily with steady freelance work. And I get the write off.

Our CTO has told me that only having the CC option is actually a good thing for a guy like me. The company will want us all to continue with Adobe and having only one way to get the tools makes things that much easier on all of us and is just the cost of doing business.


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Michael Hendrix
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 3:22:54 pm

I am hoping that works out for us as well. The fact that this software is a must have for the print and web people that we will benefit from it. Our department is small that the our justification alone would not mean as much.



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Craig Seeman
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 4:04:27 pm

The problem is the CC certainly works for some business models but it certainly does not for others.

A business which has a budget for purchases makes those purchases.
The next year they may have a different set of priorities given both economic circumstance and business client needs.
One year they'd purchase CS or specific apps.
The next year they have the option to upgrade (and much less than full purchase price) or decide not to upgrade and allocate funds elsewhere.

Under CC the allocation, although smaller the first year, remains constant the subsequent years. The business is locked in to that expense often equal to an upgrade price even when they previously had the option to not pay for an upgrade.

Given the variations in economics and purchase priority many businesses (especially small businesses) want the flexibility. For their business models, it makes more sense to make a bigger up front purchase and have the option to make the smaller upgrade expense or not in subsequent years.

Many businesses simply don't want to be put in a coerced monthly or annual expenditure. Again it might be fine for some businesses but not for others. Those others are justifiably peeved and will look elsewhere for products and services that fit their business model.



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David Lawrence
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 4:16:27 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Many businesses simply don't want to be put in a coerced monthly or annual expenditure. Again it might be fine for some businesses but not for others. Those others are justifiably peeved and will look elsewhere for products and services that fit their business model."

Well said.

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Todd Stowe
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 5:57:27 pm

Here's how I see it.

Some companies have to stay up-to-date. If I'm a publisher and someone brings me an InDesign CS6 file, I lose the sale if I can't open it. Some have to have the latest because they just have to. Kind of like how some people have to have the latest model car. What they have works fine, but there something newer so they have to have it.

Then there are the rest of us... small businesses, photographers, schools. We don't need the latest version. We might have CS3 and it works for us. We don't need the latest every time it comes out. Or maybe we just can't afford it.

But eventually, we too have to upgrade. Operating systems change. Programs become obsolete. New RAW files are supported. Etc.

What are we supposed to do when that happens?


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Morten Ranmar
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 5:47:57 pm

Well, you cannot compare Apples and Pears. Adobe is not a facility that specializes in a certain way of servicing a customer group. Adobe has become a standard, and creates the fundamental tools for everyone - from educational sectors to large corporate industries, so Adobe needs to service all those different in customer sectors efficiently and individually. Just like a government office...

- No Parking Production -

2 x Finalcut Studio3, 2 x Prod. bundle CS6, 2 x MacPro, 2 x ioHD, Ethernet File Server w. X-Raid.... and FCPX on trial


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Herb Sevush
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 5:53:04 pm

[Michael Hendrix] ""It will cost you $1000 for a one day edit."
Client: "But I paid $500 two years ago."
"But i have a bigger facility and hey, you can go down to the green room and have some snacks!"
Client: "But I want the same room, same time, same rate. I am not using the other edit bays and I can bring my own snacks."

How many of you would do it for $500 even if this does not fit in your new business model?"


If I am the successful business, upgrading from clients who are willing to pay double the price for basically the same service is definitely the way to go. If I am the client, and the project can be handled by any other competitive facility, I won't double the fee for a bag of Fritos. If I am a client that needs the extra rooms then the xtra cost for the more expansive facility might be worth it -- plus I get the chips.

Leaving the land of the half-baked analogy, if you expect to use a lot of the programs offered by the CC the price is a steal. If you are only using PPro, AE, and Photoshop then the price is still a steal, only this time you are the victim and not the thief.

What you are leaving out is the whole monthly dongle issue, which is what bothers many users as much as a strict cost analysis. Having used and been abused by dongles in the past, it does seem very retro to be tied to one again.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Ryan Holmes
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 6:05:01 pm

[Herb Sevush] "Having used and been abused by dongles in the past, it does seem very retro to be tied to one again."

You must not do a lot of audio editing...dongles are a way of life in the audio plugin world! :-)

[Craig Seeman] " Those others are justifiably peeved and will look elsewhere for products and services that fit their business model."

Or....they just complain about it a lot and sign up anyway.

Ryan Holmes
http://www.ryanholmes.me
@CutColorPost


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Herb Sevush
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 6:51:03 pm

[Ryan Holmes] "You must not do a lot of audio editing...dongles are a way of life in the audio plugin world! :-)"

No, I don't. Are these physical dongles that hang off one of the ports, or are these internet dongles Like CC?

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Ryan Holmes
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 6:59:52 pm

[Herb Sevush] "Are these physical dongles that hang off one of the ports, or are these internet dongles Like CC?"

A little bit of both. Physical dongles that you authorize and deploy with your account "in the cloud." iLok is the most commonly dealt with. Waves got rid of their dongle based approach but you still have to authorize the plugins via the cloud.

Since many audio studs have portable rigs and freelance on other equipment they want a way to take all that stuff with them from job to job and location to location. Dongles and the cloud allow for this. Not a direct corollary to Adobe's CC approach, but there is some benefit for some aspect of the market to be portable.

In the video world DaVinci Resolve has a physical dongle to authorize it. I don't see the dongle/check-in process going away ever. As long as people use unauthorized copies of the software those companies will always try to slow that down. The "good guys" always get caught in the middle authorizing and deauthorizing so they can play by the rules.

Ryan Holmes
http://www.ryanholmes.me
@CutColorPost


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Herb Sevush
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 7:07:09 pm

[Ryan Holmes] "Physical dongles that you authorize and deploy with your account "in the cloud." iLok is the most commonly dealt with. Waves got rid of their dongle based approach but you still have to authorize the plugins via the cloud."


I used to have a rat's nest of dongle's hanging off the serial port of my editing computer - about 4 in all. Nothing like having to stop work because a dangling dongle gets stepped on and you have to wait for someone to ship you out a new one. I don't consider a "one time" internet authorization a dongle - almost every piece of pro software I own needs to be authorized online. It only becomes a dongle when you have to constantly be tied to the internet, or like CC, when you have to authorize too often for my liking. Once a year, even twice a year would be no problem, but once a month is at least 6 times too many.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Ryan Holmes
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 7:17:37 pm

[Herb Sevush] "Nothing like having to stop work because a dangling dongle gets stepped on and you have to wait for someone to ship you out a new one. "

Yep...that's awful!!

[Herb Sevush] "Once a year, even twice a year would be no problem, but once a month is at least 6 times too many."

Well for CC it's only once a month if you are a month-to-month member. If you're on an annual contract then it's every 3 months (99 days). So at least that would cut down your "check-ins" to only 4 per year! :-)

From Adobe's CC FAQ:
An internet connection is required the first time you install and license your desktop apps, but you can use the apps in offline mode with a valid software license. The desktop apps will attempt to validate your software licenses every 30 days.

For annual members, you can use the apps for up to 99 days in offline mode. Month-to-month members can use the software for up to 30 days in offline mode.

Ryan Holmes
http://www.ryanholmes.me
@CutColorPost


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Herb Sevush
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 8:33:52 pm

[Ryan Holmes] "For annual members, you can use the apps for up to 99 days in offline mode. "

Didn't see that before, would make me feel better about using it since I would prefer yearly subscription.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Andrew Kimery
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 9:15:29 pm

It's up to 180 days last I heard.

http://www.studiodaily.com/2013/05/adobe-doubles-down-on-creative-cloud-ado...




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Ryan Holmes
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 9:19:51 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "It's up to 180 days last I heard."

I've heard this as well. But I haven't seen that verified by Adobe. Their FAQ that I linked to states 99 days. That was published, so I was going off that.

I think 180 days would be great. That really be just twice a year if that's the case.

Ryan Holmes
http://www.ryanholmes.me
@CutColorPost


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Walter Soyka
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 9:23:48 pm

[Ryan Holmes] "I've heard this as well. But I haven't seen that verified by Adobe. Their FAQ that I linked to states 99 days. That was published, so I was going off that."

It's official, but it's not official yet.

Quoth Todd Kopriva of Adobe, over from the Ae forum:

[Todd Kopriva] "If you have an annual subscription, you only need to connect to the Internet once every several months. Specifically, the software tries to connect once per month; if it fails, it enters a grace period mode where it begins counting down the number of days before it _must_ connect or terminate the activation. The grace period for annual subscriptions is now 99 days; we're soon going to bump that to 180 days."

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
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Ryan Holmes
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 9:26:11 pm

@Walter - good to know. Thanks for the info.

I don't like spreading misinformation that's why I was sticking with the verifiable 99 days from their FAQ. Good to see Adobe reps posting around here to clear up some of the cloudiness.

Ryan Holmes
http://www.ryanholmes.me
@CutColorPost


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Gustavo Bermudas
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 7:27:05 pm

[Michael Hendrix] "I also understand all views and to some extent agree. What I don't agree with is the conspiracy theory stuff...."They will triple the price when they lock us in...","

That's true, nobody knows, but one thing everybody knows is that companies, specially public traded companies, always make projections where revenue is on the rise, they want to see growth, year after year.
Going after a subscription model is one way to increase profits and meet those projections, IF, it all works as planned, and even if they do, there will come a time when the numbers of subscriptions will be at best steady.
How do you think Adobe will be able to meet those projections for that year if their subscription base doesn't grow? Increase price on subscription. We've seen it with Netflix numerous times.

It's not really a conspiracy theory, but an economic one.


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Michael Hendrix
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 8:25:35 pm

My theory is that what they have in the cloud now is their core products. No doubt if the subscription model doesn't live up to projections, they will have to change course. What that means, I don't know, but what I think is, they want the base on the core products and then develop services to supplement the core products. That's what SendNow, EchoSign, and Business Catalyst are.

My hope is, this will keep the core product cost reasonable just to keep you in the Adobe ecosystem.



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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 8:24:49 pm

you are kind of personalising adobe's goals relative to a production house/creative dude - not that they aren't in the, like, blood and guts of the people we are all familiar with from the various teams - they really actually are, but adobe corporate is a pretty gigantic business. Part of this mess is getting past perceptions of a personal relationship is a sense?

I thought this was a really interesting article:

http://windowsitpro.com/windows-azure/azure-future-microsoft?utm_source=fee...

there are some amazing similarities right? In the way he feels about things, speaking about the fears, the use of terminology and reasoning, and microsoft's full on evolutionary desire to become cloud based software as a service? So right - no one can expect these companies to ignore that instinct? It does feel pretty Darwinian evolutionary. To ask adobe to keep printing CD's with software on them would feel insane at this point.

But anyway some of the quotes are nearly eerie in comparison:

That initial Microsoft offering is what cloud computing guys call Platform as a Service, or PaaS. This lets you do things like deploy web-based apps, supporting cloud services, well - adobe has story here I guess. Good enough for coronation street like.

As important, Microsoft supports a hybrid model in which organizations can maintain infrastructure on-prem and in the cloud, and interoperate as required;
that feels rather familiar. Todd Kopriva, referencing Mike Chamber's statements, has directly stated below that photoshop will at some point, as software, co-exist on the cloud, (he said, pretending to be a journalist).

Microsoft is already moving to a model where cloud services get new features more quickly than their on-prem alternatives. Expect that trend to continue too in the meantime. Hello adobe 2012

because most IT pros still have an old-school, on-premises mentality, this is going to be a bitter pill to swallow,
hello every creative ever born.

Because of its history, the firm will of course continue supporting the on-premises solutions that make sense over a certain number of years. But this migration, this sea change, is inevitable.
and right here is where the comparison breaks. this is the part I don't get. Adobe did this part, the dual track, for about one spring to the following spring. then they pulled the gigantic subscription lever for around 6 (is that right?) million license holders.

That feels more than a little mad. Microsoft envision a decade timeline to acclimatise social acceptance to this shift. I still haven't heard one good reason why adobe felt the need to go year Zero. Why exactly did adobe have to do this this way?

Instead they spent the national product of some decent sized Eastern European country in a glitz and glamout show madhouse of PR in order to shove it down everyone's throat. CreativeCloudCreativeCloudCreativeCloudCreativeCloudCreativeCloud.

But seeing as we're all going venting headless chickens - it maybe goes to Trust right?
Do we actually trust adobe corporate. (Please stop Todd Kopriva - don't type it - I'm not saying I don't trust you)

And so if I'm being honest:

1:




I functionally do not trust that man. Walt mossberg called him "the most well prepared CEO ever" at D5 in an old interview. Walt looked very sarky. On an animalistic human level - I basically don't trust that performance or him. I literally don't trust that guy. In that video it feels false, high handed, ungenuine. Also, as said in the piece - Adobe were merrily raping australian customers like it was going out of style.

Anyway - so that's the Adobe CEO. drink it in.

2: Adobe are currently pretty much flat out mugging education and charities as we speak. They really are, if you want to look up bait and switch in the dictionary, Oxford english is currently using Adobe and educational.

3: they floated really pretty damn high pricing initially in the surveys a few years ago. And that's the nub: fine that companies feel an incredibly strong urge to fundamentally alter their model, but does anyone not really, deep down, feel that this is a company run by a guy who views his customers as a plate to be offered to his shareholders? Because I bloody well do.

In the end it goes to what you believe about the company. Adobe are asking for gargantuan amounts of trust from across the whole of creative, everyone is going nuts right now, and yet, as a company adobe are saying precisely nothing. Adobe corporate is utterly silent. They've got a rack of guys on hell missions across the forums, but adobe is saying precisely nothing to alleviate concerns or, you know, give us a loyalty software archive after a few years as a lease buyout.

yes, I am selling that one again, on behalf of Mr. Dowse.
http://forums.creativecow.net/thread/378/977

The thing is - i didn't actually need to utterly trust and neurotically understand the company before this: - I just bought the bloody software.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Jim Wiseman
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 9:57:01 pm

Aindreas Gallagher: >The thing is - i didn't actually need to utterly trust and neurotically understand the company before this: - I just bought the bloody software.<

Excellent analysis, Aindreas. The whole post. My feelings exactly.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1,Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.3, Premiere Pro 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Avid MC, Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 8Gb SSD, G5 Quadcore PCIe


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David Lawrence
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 23, 2013 at 11:01:08 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "The thing is - i didn't actually need to utterly trust and neurotically understand the company before this: - I just bought the bloody software."

This. ^

Excellent post, Aindreas.

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Tom Daigon
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 24, 2013 at 3:52:22 pm

Im still a BIG fan of Adobe CS6.But here are almost 25,000 folks that feel differently about the Creative Cloud.



Tom Daigon
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Ryan Holmes
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 24, 2013 at 4:11:40 pm

[Tom Daigon] "But here are almost 25,000 folks that feel differently about the Creative Cloud."

I'd be really curious to see in 6 months or a year how many of these petitioners actually left Adobe and how many "converted" and use the Cloud. Probably not a way to reliably measure that....

Ryan Holmes
http://www.ryanholmes.me
@CutColorPost


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 25, 2013 at 12:28:59 am

that's a kind of somewhere point Ryan - what is your preference here? reading your bit on the site there - do you still favour a purchase + maintenance scenario?

or do you think this is a customer situation best served by rolling over and shutting up?

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Ryan Holmes
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 25, 2013 at 2:38:24 am

[Aindreas Gallagher] "that's a kind of somewhere point Ryan - what is your preference here? reading your bit on the site there - do you still favour a purchase + maintenance scenario?"

@Aindreas - my preference would be that Adobe maintains what they currently have under CS6. CC for those who want it and a perpetual license of some sort for those who want that route instead.

Ultimately, this looks (and feels) very much like the FCPX scenario from a couple of years ago. When FCPX dropped on June 21 nearly everybody was screaming bloody murder. Petitions were signed, Facebook pages were put up, #BringBackFCS was trending on Twitter but Apple designed FCPX to be a 10+ year platform. They were (and still are) sticking with it for the long haul. FCP7 and Studio was dead. It wasn't coming back.

So once everybody got tired of ranting about FCPX you had 3 options - stay put, move to the next version, or move to another platform. These are realistically the 3 options now presented to any Adobe CS6 user who's not on the cloud. Stay on CS6, move to the CC, or move to Avid/FCPX/Vegas. As an ex-FCPer I moved platforms. It was tough, but not impossible. But I moved because FCPX didn't solve any of the workflow problems I faced. Premiere Pro CC solves problems I have. It's a smokin piece of software! :-)

Now Adobe may be listening differently than Apple. Adobe's main income source is selling software. Apple's is wrapped up in hardware. For Apple it's probably more cost efficient just to kill off FCP and divert the developers to iOS or OS X. But ultimately, I think Adobe has a 5-10 year plan (much like Apple with FCPX) and the CC is a huge part of that. I imagine that Adobe Anywhere is a long-term project and the CC plays an integral roll in that. Adobe probably wants to have better control over how and when it deploys updates. Discs are expensive to produce compared to the cloud. So long term they wanted out of discs (like Netflix does as well). I just don't realistically see Adobe making drastic changes. They seem content to ride out the dissenters. Whether that's a good or bad PR and financial move....only time will tell. If enough people walk and stay gone then Adobe will adjust. If people just hold out for 6-12 months, that's not going to radically impact Adobe's bottom line much.

For me, the two biggest problems facing Adobe right now with the CC structure is:
(1) Not having a way to open up old projects if you're not on subscription,
(2) Pricing, specifically for the educational market

Apple was extremely aggressive in the early 2000's with their EDU pricing. By they time FCS3 hit in 2009 they had developed a quite significant market of college grads that "grew up" working on their software. At the time Avid was a bit lazy in that area (as well as taking care of it's pros), and Apple started to gobble up market share. If Adobe doesn't tweak their pricing for the EDU world (high school, college, etc.) I can imagine them having some problems down the road, though it'll take 3-5 years to develop.

Clear as mud?! :-)

Just my $.02

Ryan Holmes
http://www.ryanholmes.me
@CutColorPost


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Jim Wiseman
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 25, 2013 at 2:52:45 am

I don't see why Perpetual Licensing has to be tied to physical product such as discs in boxes. I am quite happy to download the software and burn to a disc myself for archiving. Do it all the time. This could be done just as inexpensively as the downloaded rental model of Creative Cloud, and would produce a lot of happy customers.

They are going to have to deal with the problem of poor internet connections with CC as well. I'd hate to be on a slow connection trying to download the Master Suite! If they want those sales, they will probably have to deal with customers with poor connectivity with some form of physical product, both CC or a hoped for perpetual license, or lose the sale.

And you are right. This is Adobe's only real business. Apple with FCPx has 100 billion plus in cash and their main business is hardware. Adobe is much more at risk with this behavior.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1,Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.3, Premiere Pro 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Avid MC, Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 8Gb SSD, G5 Quadcore PCIe


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 26, 2013 at 7:16:50 pm

[Ryan Holmes] "If people just hold out for 6-12 months, that's not going to radically impact Adobe's bottom line much."

no, but it will disrupt their own projections to investors - adobe have put an investor stake in the ground of 1.25 million subscribers by years end. if they miss that significantly - then they have a growth projection problem with their own three year revenue forecasts, without any licensing alternative to fall back on.

Also if it is public knowledge that the customer base is actively working to disrupt that projection (sending adobe to coventry), the industry analysis of adobe's mid term position with its customer base would likely be quite negative.

basically, as customers, if we financially rough adobe up a little bit, they might possibly prove more amenable to adjusting the deal with us?

the five year loyalty software archive everyone is talking about seems an eminent compromise no?
It's a tiny, tiny climb down, and it doesn't take effect for half a decade?

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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walter biscardi
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 27, 2013 at 9:10:59 pm

[Ryan Holmes] "I'd be really curious to see in 6 months or a year how many of these petitioners actually left Adobe and how many "converted" and use the Cloud. Probably not a way to reliably measure that...."

Honestly when you look at the profile of the guy who started it, seems like he's a semi professional "petition starter."

As you say the proof will be in the pudding. About 6 -12 months after X rolled out, there was a very significant shift away from Apple that was tangible. Adobe and Avid had record or near record sales as the professionals shifted away from Apple. That was something that was quantifiable.

We'll see where folks are in about another 6 months or so and see if the shift has begun away from Premiere Pro. I expect the majority of folks would go to Avid to maintain a similar workflow, but let's watch to see if suddenly X or Avid get a larger than normal influx of users within 12 months. That'll be telling.

If the numbers hold or increase for Adobe Creative Cloud, that will also be telling. Biggest hurdle for Adobe will be the large 100+ seat installations where IT has to feel that everything is going to be secure and safe for their operations. If they don't like it, doesn't matter what the staff wants to use, they'll have to move on to other software.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
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Jim Wiseman
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 27, 2013 at 10:02:49 pm

I agree with you on this post, Walter. Where they will go is open to debate. FCPx is getting a lot more attention, and Avid has had well known financial problems. Not a predictable time in NLE land. Adobe is making it difficult for many in their base. I'm sitting tight on CS6 and my current software hoping they will also eventually offer perpetual licenses again.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1,Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.3, Premiere Pro 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Avid MC, Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 8Gb SSD, G5 Quadcore PCIe


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Paul King
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 24, 2013 at 4:44:29 pm

Mmmmmmmmmmmm.....

I have a point to make in all this, but I had to read everyone's points to make sure I wasn't repeating what others have already said. Fortunately I'm not so here goes.

I was an Adobe beta tester until I had a pretty series spat with Dave Hemley on another beta forum. So I know what the cycle of development is like.

I see a bigger issue here rather than just hiking the price. In the past if Adobe wanted to generate sales, they had to release updates with features people wanted. If someone didn't feel the update was worth the money, they skipped that version. Adobe had to make the proposition attractive by packing as much in as possible and releasing that proposition around NAB each year (actually it was about an 18 month cycle, which then became a .5 every year).

With the new CC regime Adobe has freed itself from the pressure of this release cycle.

So here are what I see as the major changes for me:
1. Adobe no longer need to work as hard in the year to bring out new features and fixes. So if the monthly fee equates to the yearly upgrade price, this value can be eroded away by Adobe simply slowing the pace of development (saving them money and costing us more without hiking the price).

2. I will have to pay for the software no matter what features are released, whether they suit my business or not.

3. I have to pay Adobe in advance of software development.

4. I have to trust Adobe to do the right thing with my upfront money. As a video user, I really only use the products from Production Premium. Many of those products have a history of substandard releases - Premiere Pro (awful until CS5 and really only up to scratch from CS6) Encore (many issues up to CS6) After Effects (buggy multithreaded rendering). Premiere continues to have some significant bugs that have not been fixed. So Adobe are asking for a lot of trust for money up front considering the history.

5. Renting always costs more than buying so over the life of my career the software will now cost me more money.

6. My business is now devalued because it no longer has software assets. The rest of my assets are worthless without the software that runs on them.

7. I no longer have consumer protection for my purchase (we have that in Australia). Here if we purchase software that claims it can do XYZ, if it doesn't meet those claims I can return it for a refund. How do I get a refund on a rental?

8. I can no longer get local software support because my reseller can no longer sell the software (yes I know dealers can sell teams, but who will pay more when teams give me nothing I want).

9. here's the worst thing - if I decide to go a different direction in software in the future, I'll have to buy two lots of software, the software I have chosen to use and the software I am forced to rent in order to access my existing work.

Now here's the light at the end of the tunnel. Adobe my not actually get away with the new rental model. Governments may not allow Adobe to sell their products this way because of issues of anti-trust, consumer protection, local taxes etc. Adobe's high profile in the software industry may actually bring heavy scrutiny on software subscription models. Not giving customers any choice my violate trading laws, especially with a company that finds itself monopolising the industry.

Adobe have to realise that they are removing customer choice. Adobe have a choice whether they buy or rent their offices, their furniture, their assets. Maybe everyone who supplies to Adobe should stop selling to them and only offer them rental, see how they like it.

Thanks




Paul



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Ryan Holmes
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 24, 2013 at 5:06:00 pm

[Paul King] "Not giving customers any choice my violate trading laws, especially with a company that finds itself monopolising the industry."

Paul you have plenty of choices in the post-production industry. Adobe is not a monopoly. You have Final Cut Pro, Avid, Smoke, Vegas, Pixelmator, Acorn (Sketch and Gimp), Nuke, Motion, etc. Now you may not like any of the other choices....but you do have them! Adobe does not control the post-production industry. I think you could make a stronger case for "Adobe Monopoly" on the desktop publishing side - InDesign, Photoshop, Illustrator, etc. But we're focused on video here so my comments are directed at that. And in our market, Adobe does not hold all the keys.

Ryan Holmes
http://www.ryanholmes.me
@CutColorPost


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Paul King
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 24, 2013 at 5:56:34 pm

Sorry Ryan you misunderstood the reference to choice.
It was about choice of how to purchase the product.

Monopoly, no other company in our industry can offer a competing product to Production Premium, however when I referred to monopoly, it was geared more towards publishing. This aspect of my post was more about government regs rather than consumer choice. Adobe are currently on the Australian Government radar along with Apple and Microsoft. Look at the attention Apple and Microsoft have been getting. For Adobe to be named among them spells monopoly.



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Greg Beckt
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 24, 2013 at 5:46:50 pm

Paul...I think your points are spot on, and this is one of the best summaries of the debate I've read. Ultimately these are the same reasons I have issues with this model.



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Jim Wiseman
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 24, 2013 at 9:58:01 pm

Well said, Paul King. Exactly my take on the whole affair. Especially the stuck forever part. If people really think about what that means, they won't buy in. Heard the Aussie government went after their pricing there as well.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1,Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.3, Premiere Pro 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Avid MC, Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 8Gb SSD, G5 Quadcore PCIe


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Paul King
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 25, 2013 at 12:36:27 am

Yeah Adobe charge us 40% more than what you guys pay.
They justified it by claiming it was the cost of providing local support and a website.
But has anyone ever tried Adobe support?
They are woeful and it's not free either.

I should confess, I'm an Adobe reseller. But frankly it's not worth selling the product when I have to compete with Adobe for a sale. And Adobe are selling the same product for less money.

I'm actually happy because for the 15% margin I get on the software I'm encumbered to provide 50% of the purchase price in support.

Interesting that while Premiere was a terrible product we got 20% margin, but worked our a.... off supporting it because it was so bad. Now that they have fixed it at CS6, they want to sell and support it themselves. Big slap in the face.

Come on Grant Petty, finish up the deal to buy video assets from Autodesk and re ticket them for $995.00 (my speculation, no one told me this.) This would give us tools that worked great ten years ago while Adobe floundered around.

Thanks Jim



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Norman Lang
Re: The Cloud: An Opposing View
on May 28, 2013 at 2:47:07 am

You are on to something Paul. Both Davinci Resolve and Autodesk Smoke are cruising right into the market that Apple lost and Adobe is trying to screw up. I think there are some very good things coming down the pike for editors. Things change, companies change, software changes, but consumers will constantly move to the best pricing and products. That creates opportunity for competition. I will not lose sleep if Adobe destroys their market. I will pay them until I no longer need to and leave them flat in a blink. They would do the same to me. I don't like it. I would like to hold hands with them and sing Kumbaya over a bong, but those days are long gone, if they ever existed. We as consumers are a very strong and powerful business force. They don't exist if they can't get people to pay them. Same as you and me. Apple paid the price for their bad business decision. For the moment they can write off the loss. But they can't keep doing that. We can't control the suits that run these huge corporate monstrosities. We can only make our own best business decisions to spend for the tools we need and stay on the cutting edge to find the best price performance ratios available. I own CS6 Production Premium Suite and signed up for CC. Right now 20 bucks a month to get additional programs, ongoing updates etc, is cheap and worth the price to me. Next year it may not be. I love Davinci Resolve. I love the direction they are going in. It may wind up being the NLE of the future, but I can't plan my future on it. None of us can plan for the future of a product. FCPX proved that point. So we allow the forces of the market to encourage good business development of the products we need. It is our right as consumers to sound off. I love this feisty group. We are in the driver's seat as much as these big companies would like you to believe otherwise.

Norman Lang
Lang Productions
http://www.langproductions.com


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