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Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation

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walter biscardi
Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 13, 2015 at 3:40:14 am

"As we watch organizations like IBM, HP and EMC struggle to transform, Adobe is an interesting contrasting case. It went from selling boxed software to a cloud subscription model in shorter order, and judging from its financial report that came out last week, it’s done quite well making that leap."

http://techcrunch.com/2015/12/12/adobes-record-revenue-proves-successful-bu...

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
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Ryan Holmes
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 14, 2015 at 11:00:05 pm

[Tech Crunch] "Adobe did something that most companies are afraid to do. It ripped off the band-aid and decided to focus completely on a new subscription revenue model. It could have had a long period of adjustment where it decided to offer the box alongside the cloud subscription versions, but it chose to bet the ranch at a time when most of its peers were struggling with changing business approaches.

If you want a means of comparison, look at Microsoft. It’s still offering both the boxed version of Office and the cloud version, Office 365. On the enterprise software side, it’s still offering both cloud and on-prem versions of Dynamics CRM, SharePoint and many other tools."


I'm sure it depends on your perspective, as people here at the Cow site Microsoft (and Avid) as an example of the way they'd prefer Adobe do it: subscription as one choice, perpetual license with maintenance agreement as a secondary choice.

I'm not sure that measuring the success or failure of the move to subscription via revenue/profit should be the only litmus test we go by. However, they are a business and that has to be one of the check boxes. From a purely business standpoint, what they've managed to accomplish in just 3 years is nothing short of remarkable. Any publicly-traded company attempting to completely change their core business model is in a difficult position, let alone accomplishing that in 3 years time. As a timeframe comparison Tim Cook became CEO at Apple in August 2011, and Marissa Mayer took over Yahoo in July 2012. In a similar timeframe, Yahoo has been unable to change it's core business model (or make it profitable). Granted, not a 1:1 comparison Yahoo:Adobe, but merely stating the difficulty that exists in pivoting a large publicly-traded company.

Ryan Holmes
http://www.ryanholmes.me
@CutColorPost


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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 15, 2015 at 1:36:45 am

[Ryan Holmes] "I'm sure it depends on your perspective, as people here at the Cow site Microsoft (and Avid) as an example of the way they'd prefer Adobe do it: subscription as one choice, perpetual license with maintenance agreement as a secondary choice."

ADOBE: What do you say?????

Congratulations on your success forcing those who need to do business with you into a no-win situation. But a great many small business creative professionals, even those that have now signed on like myself, WANT alternatives.

Why in the world has there been NO attempt at addressing this issue when other companies have? After 3 years.

Preemptive comment: Please don't include the letters S. O. X. in your response.


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walter biscardi
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 15, 2015 at 3:44:05 am

[Chris Pettit] "Why in the world has there been NO attempt at addressing this issue when other companies have? After 3 years."

What is there to address? Adobe made the decision to go wholly into subscriptions instead of trying to make it work both ways. They have record profits. That's the point of the article. Adobe made a definitive decision and they have stuck with it. There is no reason to go backwards at this point.

If there was enough of an uproar and a defection from potential users, it would have come through in the numbers. What I see are the same group of people still complaining that Adobe is screwing them while millions of others have moved on and made our decision. There is plenty of software out there to use including the best free NLE on the market, DaVinci Resolve. Make a decision for your company and move on.

Best.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 15, 2015 at 4:28:12 am

[walter biscardi] "If there was enough of an uproar and a defection from potential users, it would have come through in the numbers. What I see are the same group of people still complaining that Adobe is screwing them while millions of others have moved on and made our decision. There is plenty of software out there to use including the best free NLE on the market, DaVinci Resolve. Make a decision for your company and move on."

You're right. The same arguments advanced by the same group of people. No question about that. Over and over.


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David Lawrence
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 15, 2015 at 6:39:40 am

[Chris Pettit] "You're right. The same arguments advanced by the same group of people. No question about that. Over and over."

Just read the comments on that TechCrunch article and it's clear all Adobe customers but us just love the new model, lol!

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walter biscardi
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 15, 2015 at 1:26:47 pm

[Chris Pettit] "You're right. The same arguments advanced by the same group of people. No question about that. Over and over."

I'm happy the three years and counting of constant complaining is effective for everyone here. Wish you the best.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 15, 2015 at 1:32:12 pm

[walter biscardi] "I'm happy the three years and counting of constant complaining is effective for everyone here. Wish you the best."

yes, and you're contributions have been particularly helpful. Oh, and sincere as well


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walter biscardi
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 15, 2015 at 1:38:25 pm

[Chris Pettit] "yes, and you're contributions have been particularly helpful. Oh, and sincere as well"

I have been sincere in my posts. It's been three years. You have to make a business decision to keep complaining or move on. That IS sincere. Energy wasted complaining about the same thing for three years and getting the same result is energy that can be spent on other things. Adobe has made their decision. All the negative comments in an article or on here are not going to sway them to change when the financial numbers are pointing to "we've made the right decision" and quite honestly they have.

So as someone who has owned their own business since 1998 and has re-invented the company more times than I can count, I am sincere when I say it's time to move on. To keep complaining about how things used to be and wanting to return to all the options that used to be there is energy wasted.

My final two cents and I'll bow out here and let y'all continue the conversation.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 15, 2015 at 2:02:33 pm

[walter biscardi] "That IS sincere."

I meant "I wish you the best".

BTW just about everyone on this forum is in business for themselves. I created my company in 1996. You're repeated admonitions to "move on" don't carry any additional weight because you're self-employed.


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Andy Field
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 12, 2016 at 7:11:15 am

Following on Walter's comments -- I use Adobe products for my business -- they make us money by making us more productive.

We upgraded with every FCP release each year - several hundred dollars each year.

Same with Adobe.

The Subscription fee is nearly the same price year over year. For us it makes no difference. But in this case, Adobe has incentive to come out with improvements more often to keep us subscribing as there ARE alternatives (AVID, FCP X - DaVinci etc)

To us - it's like paying our cell phone or cable bill -- the cost of doing business. If my business can't sustain a 30, 40, 50 dollars a month subscription, then I'm in the wrong business.

If that makes you angry -- Turn off Adobe and chose a competitor. I'm guessing you don't do that because Adobe gives you the tools and productivity you like and need.

Andy Field
FieldVision Productions
N. Bethesda, Maryland 20852


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 12, 2016 at 9:58:49 am

You pay your tel./gas./etc.-bill by month, because different people have different consumption. Totally different with software.

It´s not the question if one can pay the monthly fee - It´s more, that your files (your work) ist dependent to the software.
You own nothing after subscription - and have to hire your tools again, if you want to change your work (in most cases).

Truly in field of video editing, there are competitors, but in the printing industry you can call Adobe nearby a monopolist.
(You can use alternatives, but you can´t avoid the situation, where you´ll get "Adobes PayForOpening" files from one of your clients, etc…
And you can throw away all the plugIns you bought if you change software)

Beside the fast delivered updates (which I can live without - sometimes they are more fast delivered bugs) I can´t see any advantage for me as a customer.


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Jason Watson
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 16, 2015 at 2:35:52 pm

[Chris Pettit] "Congratulations on your success forcing those who need to do business with you into a no-win situation. But a great many small business creative professionals, even those that have now signed on like myself, WANT alternatives."

This seems a bit overwrought. After all, if you "need" to do business with Adobe- by which I would presume you mean "I have clients who use Adobe products and need me to use Adobe's products in order to work with them"- then one result of you doing business with Adobe is that you make money, which hardly constitutes a "no-win" situation. Not ideal from your perspective? Sure. But also not no-win, for it it really were so you presumably wouldn't take on clients that put you in a no-win situation. Rather, the reality is that you've decided that the value of having X client(s) and getting X money from those clients is worth whatever cost CC represents to you- financial or otherwise- and that in the end it is a net benefit to you, not a no-win.


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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 16, 2015 at 3:22:17 pm

[Jason Watson] ". Rather, the reality is that you've decided that the value of having X client(s) and getting X money from those clients is worth whatever cost CC represents to you- financial or otherwise- and that in the end it is a net benefit to you, not a no-win."

Agreed. My point was that the decision to subscribe or not has, for me, become a no win situation. Meaning that I have, for the moment, No choice and No alternatives. That does not mean, nor did I imply, that using Adobe products to make money is no-win.


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Jason Watson
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 16, 2015 at 5:30:42 pm

[Chris Pettit] "Agreed. My point was that the decision to subscribe or not has, for me, become a no win situation. Meaning that I have, for the moment, No choice and No alternatives. That does not mean, nor did I imply, that using Adobe products to make money is no-win."

But that's just equivocating on "choice" and "no-win" situation. My point was that the making money aspect- especially as it figures into the calculus of your decision and what you term the "need" to do business with Adobe- is actually part-and-parcel of the choice, and thus it is simply equivocation to characterize your choice as a no-win situation and as a lack of choice. If it really was a no-win situation, you likely wouldn't have made the choice you did.

After all, you could choose to forego working with clients whose needs place you into what you think is a no-win situation. But instead you have chosen- based upon what you think is a net benefit to you relative to what you see as the costs- to work with Adobe's products. I'm not seeing how there is either as lack of choice here or a no-win situation.


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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 16, 2015 at 5:39:13 pm

[Jason Watson] "After all, you could choose to forego working with clients whose needs place you into what you think is a no-win situation. But instead you have chosen- based upon what you think is a net benefit to you relative to what you see as the costs- to work with Adobe's products. I'm not seeing how there is either as lack of choice here or a no-win situation."

You're right, I could fold up shop after 20 years and go work for Home Depot. Or I can, at the moment, subscribe to Adobe products like AE because the work I do for clients are centered around those unique capabilities. For the moment, I have no choices. That's not win-win in my book


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Jason Watson
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 17, 2015 at 2:36:47 pm

[Chris Pettit] "Or I can, at the moment, subscribe to Adobe products like AE because the work I do for clients are centered around those unique capabilities. For the moment, I have no choices. That's not win-win in my book"

I'm still not following the reasoning here behind what you are terming a no-win situation. Given your 20+ years of being in this field, has there never been a time when you have had to change the tools you have been using to meet a client's needs, to better serve the market you're in, to stay competitive, etc.? And if you have, why would this current decision be markedly different so that having to make this kind of choice is now a no-win situation (or have they all been)? And if only Adobe has the capabilities you need (hence your need to do business with them), how is that choice substantially different by means of subscription or perpetual license? It doesn't change the relationship to those clients' work vis-a-vis the terms of the licensing, as you both still stand in proportionate relationship to it.


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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 17, 2015 at 8:16:54 pm

[Jason Watson] "
I'm still not following the reasoning here behind what you are terming a no-win situation. Given your 20+ years of being in this field, has there never been a time when you have had to change the tools you have been using to meet a client's needs, to better serve the market you're in, to stay competitive, etc.?"


Only in regards to the type of business I do, not the tools. If I was just and editor, I would clearly have choices. If I was just a still photographer, same thing. But with motion graphics and animation I've been using After Effects from the very beginning, never stopped. I was very encouraged by what I saw in BM Fusion at NAB, but having taken a closer look, it is not what I would need to replace AE. I'm very hopeful that over time that application might offer me choices, but at the moment I have none regarding AE. There is a lot of additional complexity as well, like encoding improvements in AME etc.


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David Mathis
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformationw
on Dec 19, 2015 at 7:28:24 pm

My choice not to subscribe to After Effects or Premiere Pro has nothing to do with "forced subscription" as called by some but rather the fact other tools meet my needs. I don't do heavy motion graphics, just simple title cards with minimal motion and transitions. Motion meets my needs there. Fusion is becoming an alternative to enhance single shots due to its node based approach, no having to dig around as much. I might even use it to process stills for title cards and some light compositing.

I love the fact that FCP X does its job and very well. Yes, round tripping to Motion should be like in the previous version but still a very nice set of software that meets my needs. I have grown past the stage of resentment to subscription only. Use the tool that works the best.

I have nothing personal against Adobe or any company that is rental only.

Carry on the debate and would like to hear from Walter Biscardi on my thoughts.


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Jason Watson
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 21, 2015 at 2:09:01 pm

I understand the After Effects being the only game in town dynamic, but I guess I'm still not seeing how the switch to subscription only substantially changes that dynamic. I would definitely agree that if you're a heavy AE user there are few (if any) alternatives, but that seems a different and prior issue from the business model its company uses.

I'm in a somewhat similar position, although I didn't start off on Ae. I originally was heavy into Motion, and for awhile did fairly well with it. But I finally got to the point where I reached the practical end of its capabilities and decided to make the leap over to Ae, mostly so I could do more and offer my clients more options. As I look back at what I used to be able to do, I realize that the things I can do my my clients now are things I simply couldn't have done in Motion. So from my perspective, I’ve always seen Ae as giving me more options, rather than limiting them.

I think that the trickiest thing about any sort of Ae replacement is that it isn't just about the functionality, but also (and perhaps more so) about the tremendous amount of support and extensibility that is based around it. It’s not something any company can ship, and so for that reason I’m quite skeptical about any serious alternative anytime soon, although I certainly welcome it.


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 22, 2015 at 3:37:26 am

I'm just glad I only need to edit and have no need for AE. I have made my choice. Haven't used an Adobe product other than CS6 Photoshop in months. My new Macbook Pro Retina has NO Adobe products on it. PS replaced by Affinity Photo.



Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.2, Final Cut Studio 2 & 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC: Mid 2015 MacBook Pro Retina 15": 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro Retina 2015, i7, 500GB, M370X 2GB: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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David Mathis
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 24, 2015 at 4:51:24 am

Jim,

What is your NLE of choice now? I switched to FCP X, very happy with it. I don't do heavy motion graphics so Motion is a nice tool. Kind of minimal stuff. Fusion is working out well, ready to upgrade to the Studio version, it came out today.

I am renting Sapphire at the moment but will purchase as soon as funds are available. I might migrate to Resolve with FCP X as an option. I really want to dig into converting a 2D photo, making it a 3D image for a title card.

Photoshop still has no real alternatives at this point but will look into options.

Carry on!


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 26, 2015 at 4:40:48 pm
Last Edited By Jim Wiseman on Dec 26, 2015 at 4:50:22 pm

I'm using Affinity Photo and On 1 Photo 10 as PS repllacements.. Both very reasonably priced and meet all of my needs. Photo 10 has very advanced masking and both work with PSDs. Photo 10 is also cross platform although I am all Mac. Still have PS CS6 as part of Production Premium, but occasional PS and Audition is all I use from that package. NLE, moving to FCPX. Still use Media 100 2.1.6 ($99) which is qualified to Yosemite 10.10.5. It is only 32 bit, but for my documentary work that is not really a problem. I am also looking at Resolve as I have two Blackmagic boxes for tape, of which I have a large archive, Using motion for the minimal mograph work I do.

But will not be using anythiing rental. Especially anything with disappearing access. That means of course anything beyond Adobe CS6. On my new Retina, there is NO Adobe, and there won't be. Still have the Hexacore nMP 2013 and a new as of last release 2012 Mac Pro tower that runs everything when needed. 2012 has systems back to 10.6.8, but primarily using Yosemite now. Aperture goes only that far. Adobe installed, but only using as above.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.2, Final Cut Studio 2 & 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC: Mid 2015 MacBook Pro Retina 15": 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro Retina 2015, i7, 500GB, M370X 2GB: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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David Mathis
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 26, 2015 at 7:26:39 pm

As much as I don't like rental only, I do feel Photoshop is going to be the hard one to replace. At least for now. If at some point, Blackmagic Design comes up with a serious alternative, which would not be a surprise, I might jump ship. I have considered trying to extract backgrounds or certain objects to do a simple animation title sequence. I feel Fusion would make the task a bit more complicated for stuff like this.
After all, Photoshop does have nice extracting tools. Something that should be in Fusion.

Also missing from Fusion is the ability to use layer masks, another strength of Photoshop. I am not saying that one tool is bad and the other is better. They both have their target audience and they both are useful for certain tasks. Merely an observation here.

I have thought about moving over to Resolve Studio for editing. I do like FCP X but there is better OFX support in Resolve. Motion is still a tool of choice. My tastes in movies are the Film Noir variety. Everything in black and white, with mysterious shadows, simple backgrounds that are dark. Sorry for getting off topic there.

Not sure what your experience is with a node based workflow. You might have mentioned it before, but I am really thinking about getting Fusion Studio for enhancing footage on a shot by shot basis. Been watching videos from Simon Ubsdell and others, mainly Simon (you rock), so far I like what I see.

We all have different tastes, skills, preferences and opinions. Nothing wrong with any of that. I do best my best not to trample on others. I love this debate forum!


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 27, 2015 at 7:25:49 pm

David, Both On 1 Photo 10 and Affinity Photo have Layer Masking. Try them out to see if they meet your needs.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.2, Final Cut Studio 2 & 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC: Mid 2015 MacBook Pro Retina 15": 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro Retina 2015, i7, 500GB, M370X 2GB: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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David Mathis
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 27, 2015 at 7:54:39 pm

I will check it out. I am looking to do cut out animation and Fil Noir title sequences. I assume that does not require drawing skills. Thanks again!

The reason I am looking at Resolve is because I am thinking about getting a Digital Bolex camera.


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 31, 2015 at 5:48:23 pm
Last Edited By Jim Wiseman on Dec 31, 2015 at 5:50:37 pm

David, today is the last day for a discount on On 1 Photo 10. Check the features. Layer masking and more. Cross platform. Feature list. http://www.on1.com/apps/on1photo10/feature-list/

Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.2, Final Cut Studio 2 & 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC: Mid 2015 MacBook Pro Retina 15": 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro Retina 2015, i7, 500GB, M370X 2GB: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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David Mathis
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 31, 2015 at 7:22:00 pm

This looks like a very viable alternative. Not sure I would call it a competitor but very darn close. I think this will be a perfect companion app for Motion.

Just looking through a book on minimal graphic design so I think this app will be perfect. Thanks for letting me know.


A side note:

Have you looked at Resolve as an editor? I am debating on whether to get a Digital Bolex, that camera looks very awesome.

Thanks again for letting me know Jim. You are a great person!


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walter biscardi
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 31, 2015 at 7:36:36 pm

[David Mathis] "Have you looked at Resolve as an editor? I am debating on whether to get a Digital Bolex, that camera looks very awesome."

Resolve is an AWESOME editing tool. Needs a few more tweaks on graphics support, but it probably has the best multi-cam tool on the planet right now. Solid editing thanks to Alexis Van Hurkman really pushing the Blackmagic team. I expect the April it'll be ready to compete head to head against Avid / Adobe. AND it's free. :)

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

Craft and Career Advice & Training from real Working Creative Professionals

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David Mathis
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 31, 2015 at 7:43:40 pm

I agree. Also waiting to see if they can somewhat compete against Nuke Studio which is in a league of its own. Right now I think Photoshop is doing very well and the subscription was not as bad as I thought. Have another six months before I need to renew.

Because my motion graphics needs are minimal I tend to use Motion. Glad to hear from you Walter. Might not agree with everything you say but always willing to listen. You provide valuable insight!

I have thought about giving Premiere Pro another try. They have stepped up their game plan there.


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walter biscardi
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 31, 2015 at 7:46:24 pm

[David Mathis] "Because my motion graphics needs are minimal I tend to use Motion. Glad to hear from you Walter. Might not agree with everything you say but always willing to listen. You provide valuable insight!

I have thought about giving Premiere Pro another try. They have stepped up their game plan there.
"


Motion is a good tool for what it does. I used to use it all the time mainly as a particle generator and then bring those into AE because it was really simple to generate them. But I'm a heavy AE user with thousands of layers in comps, so Motion just didn't cut it for me to use full time. But for what it does, it does very well.

For my needs right now, PPro is still the best editing solution. Blackmagic is actually a close second and I suspect I'll start to work that tool into more jobs in 2016.

Have fun!

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

Craft and Career Advice & Training from real Working Creative Professionals

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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Jan 2, 2016 at 5:30:00 am
Last Edited By Ricardo Marty on Jan 2, 2016 at 6:28:42 am

I really dont think that things are going adobes way.
Last year if i remember correctly the full subscription percentage was about 64% this year its down too0 52% and the rest is probly photoshop and other single app.

//marketrealist.com/2015/12/creative-cloud-subscriptions-continue-boost-aobes-growth/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&utm_content=toc-3&utm_campaign=adobes-focus-digital-marketing-keep-paying-off

Doesnt seem to great to me.just hype.

Ricardo Marty


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Jason Watson
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Jan 2, 2016 at 4:00:41 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "I really dont think that things are going adobes way.
Last year if i remember correctly the full subscription percentage was about 64% this year its down too0 52% and the rest is probly photoshop and other single app."


The 64% was for 2014Q3 (and 61% for 2014Q4), while the 2013Q4 percentage was 76%, which would mark an even more precipitous drop year over year than 2014-2015. (2013Q4 was, if I recall correctly, the quarter after single-app subscriptions started being offered.) So if anything, if you compare 2014Q4 (61%) with 2015Q4 (52%), that would- if anything- represent a direction towards stabilization as it is much less of a decline. Additionally, they indicated back in 2014 that this 50%+/- was near the mix they anticipated and thought would be able to expand their market opportunity precisely by means of single app subscription adoption.

Given that in 2015Q4 the ARPU actually increased for commercial CC subscriptions, while remaining stable for blended ARPU, I think one would be hard pressed to make the case that things aren't going its way, especially since 74% of its revenue is now recurring which has enabled record revenues.


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Ricardo Marty
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Jan 2, 2016 at 4:25:43 pm

I dont agree, anyway you put it 52 is less than any thing they had before percentage wise. The document cloud and the marketing clound are the grearest contributers to income.

Ricardo Marty


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Jason Watson
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Jan 2, 2016 at 5:50:21 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "I dont agree,"

About what?

[Ricardo Marty] "anyway you put it 52 is less than any thing they had before percentage wise."

But you're missing the point. As they noted in their earnings call, the strategy with the single app subscription was to expand their market opportunity, which meant initially that blended ARPU decreased. However, they seem to have anticipated around a 50% mix which is right where they're at, and while ARR has increased in record numbers in 2015, the blended ARPU has remained stable (and increased in some segments, according to the earnings call). That 50% mix was where is was at with CS which I think indicates they have probably found a good balance of product offerings for their target markets.

I mean, one could make the (technically accurate) argument that full subscription adoption has decreased by about 50% since CC launched, but that alone wouldn't give an accurate picture of the situation, which is what my point is. Given their rather high retention rates, what it indicates is that they have created a large and stable subscription base for the full subscription since the inception of CC, but have also been able to expand their offerings to generate more subscriptions on other fronts, which the record revenues from ARR would seem to indicate. I guess I'm struggling to see how that could be construed as a bad thing for Adobe at this point.

[Ricardo Marty] "The document cloud and the marketing clound are the grearest contributers to income."

Firstly, this would be irrelevant to discussion. Secondly, it's not accurate. In 2015 Adobe got 29% of its revenue from digital marketing (Marketing Cloud doing $1.36 billion) and 67% for digital media software, which includes CC and DC. Of the latter, DC accounted for $357 million of just under $3 billion in (recurring) revenue.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Jan 4, 2016 at 11:49:00 pm

[walter biscardi] "Needs a few more tweaks on graphics support, but it probably has the best multi-cam tool on the planet right now. "

I haven't jumped into R12 yet, but what aspects of its mulitcam do you find superior to PPros?


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Jan 2, 2016 at 7:05:08 pm

Thanks David. Yes, I downloaded 12.2 yesterday and hope to get it on my new Mac Pro this week. Was waiting for the always present initial bugs to be worked out and am now ready to try it. Could be my go to app, although FCPX is quite adequate for my documentaries. Have some more complicated things that might benefit from Resolve, and have the Blackmagic hardware for tape ingest. Not going to 4K (unless I'm suckered in by my new iPhone 6s)!

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.2, Final Cut Studio 2 & 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC: Mid 2015 MacBook Pro Retina 15": 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro Retina 2015, i7, 500GB, M370X 2GB: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 24, 2015 at 1:23:09 am
Last Edited By Chris Pettit on Dec 24, 2015 at 1:24:58 am

[Jason Watson] "I think that the trickiest thing about any sort of Ae replacement is that it isn't just about the functionality, but also (and perhaps more so) about the tremendous amount of support and extensibility that is based around it. It’s not something any company can ship, and so for that reason I’m quite skeptical about any serious alternative anytime soon, although I certainly welcome it."

Plugin architecture is not all that complicated I'm guessing, simply a matter of time in/benefits out. What is difficult is ROI on development when Adobe had dominated the market for host applications: - AE. Alternative apps/platforms have to prove themselves in order to establish loyalty and justify the investment of time to make plugin developers cross-application compatible.

This is not just radical opinion. Monopolies suck. And to a very large degree Adobe is a monopoly. And BTW, Adobe is counting on this.


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 24, 2015 at 8:31:58 pm

I honestly don't see Adobe's position as a monopoly - they did not structure, nor really choose, the position they're currently in. There's competition out there (or was): Motion is a weak-kneed competitor (imo, for Editors who are not Motion Graphics Artists), Combustion was a great product, but got killed off during the various ownership transitions (it blew AE away in many aspects at the time for keying and tracking), and everything else is on the top shelf, so no one compares the high-end stuff to AE.

Adobe does not choose to compete with inferior products, but that's all that's in the marketplace right now. I'm sure they're not disappointed about that, but I doubt that they had any part in the the fact that the market for affordable compositing products is basically one product (especially on the PC side). HitFilm seems to be coming along, but until there's a product which will be able to utilize the plugin architecture of AE, I'm not even looking around for alternatives (I have too much invested in AE plugins). Combustion was capable of using AE's plugin architecture, so it's not an impossible task - maybe there was some licensing involved. In giving the benefit of the doubt to Adobe (that's there's no market control conspiracy), I am still on CS6, since none of the new features of the CC are compelling enough to move up - at some point I will, and I did work a long term freelance project last year using the CC, and very much liked some of the new features. None of my client projects are currently pushing me to make the move.

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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David Mathis
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 24, 2015 at 8:46:17 pm

While in agreement with you are saying I find Motion a very valuable tool. It has more power then some of us think. Still it is not a replacement. My eyes are on Fusion at the moment. My two cents.

P.S. Adobe is not a monopoly and these silly, childish conspiracy theories are getting old.


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Jason Watson
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Dec 26, 2015 at 3:15:54 pm

I think it's more than just plug-ins though, in that a lot of Ae's value (at least for me) is in all the support resources that exist around it like training, tutorials, workflows, support forums, etc. This was something I ran into back when I was using Motion, for while there was some support and training, etc., it didn't even come close to the level of what existed for Ae. I remember often having to try and translate Ae workflows to Motion as best as I could since a lot of times it simply didn't exist for Motion.

For me at least, that kind of thing is extremely valuable, and is why even if something had feature parity with Ae it wouldn't represent a replacement for me, at least not until it was able to create that sort of added value in the market.


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Andy Field
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 12, 2016 at 7:15:37 am

Then why not just use CS6 -- perpetual license -- Problem solved? Doesn't Adobe R and D deserve a return on it's investment for the improvements it's made since that release? Kind of like your clients demanding you charge what you charged a decade ago because they don't like to pay an increase.

Andy Field
FieldVision Productions
N. Bethesda, Maryland 20852


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walter biscardi
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 12, 2016 at 1:06:50 pm

[Andy Field] "Then why not just use CS6 -- perpetual license -- Problem solved? Doesn't Adobe R and D deserve a return on it's investment for the improvements it's made since that release? Kind of like your clients demanding you charge what you charged a decade ago because they don't like to pay an increase."

You would have to pay me money to work with CS6. Such a clunky piece of software compared to today's software. In fact if Premiere Pro was still stuck on CS6, I would have abandoned the platform a long time ago. The advancements made over the past years make the software so much more efficient and useable.

As noted, it's just the same as any other monthly fee we pay to keep the company in business.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

Craft and Career Advice & Training from real Working Creative Professionals

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Bob Cole
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Jan 30, 2016 at 1:02:35 am

This thread reminds me of the famous story which has been summarized in a book titled "Where are the Customers' Yachts?"

The summary: A visitor to New York admired the yachts of the bankers and brokers. Naively, he asked where all the customers' yachts were. Of course, none of the customers could afford yachts, even though they dutifully followed the advice of their bankers and brokers.

As a (hypothetical) stockholder of Adobe, I applaud the subscription model. As a customer, I'm wondering, Where is my yacht?

I realize that there are months when I am benefiting from the Cloud, and getting that "yacht" - and there are months when I am not getting enough "yacht" for my money. I've decided to look at my needs on a month-to-month basis, and am switching from an annual plan to a month-to-month commitment.

Bob C


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 9, 2016 at 9:52:03 pm

Wonder, who pays for articles like that.
Simply not true, that Adobes Numbers are that good.
Revenue is only a part of companies numbers.
And the most interesting at the link you provided, are the comments.
If Adobe transfered successfully, we will know earliest End 2016 or Mid 2017.
May be, they have record revenues - But remember, that they spent $ 4.7 Billion in Acquisitions since 2009.
Companies like Fotolia, Aviary, Neolane, Behance…
Would be more remarkable if that doesn´t drive revenue.
(http://finance.yahoo.com/news/adobe-systems-real-growth-rate-215825968.html)
Their profit (or Net income) doesn´t even reach the numbers of 2011!
2011 = 832 Mil $. / 2015 = 629 Mil $ (https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AADBE&fstype=ii&ei=DFS6VoGgH4iAsgH...)
Whereas CS6 was sold 5.6.Million Times within a year (And there were 12.8 Mil. paying CS-Users) CC reached only 6.17 million subscriptions within 4 years - and only God (& Adobe) knows how many of these use only point products.
(A sign, that users really like this business-modell? Or was Adobe blended by profit maximizing, that half of former users don´t matter?)
Their Stock Market price was hopeless too high and fell roundabout 23% since Mid December.
As the Next business conference is coming and Adobe has to mollify Wall Street (by strange numbers of subscribers) we see the never ending discounts again.
(Again 40% off for the first year here in Germany - That´s typical for a successful product - 4 years after market introduction???)
Competition is slowly growing. But growing.
Praising Adobe that way is simply not a impartial information in my eyes.
And I don´t know any users (personally) who like this business model.
Most don´t want to be forced by updates.
Want the choice to decide what to buy and pay for.
Want to use their documents after subscription.
And so on. Said a hundred times here.
If Adobe wouldn´t be a monopolist in many fields - they would never have done this.
I would have paid many thousands of Euros since 2012 for the updates of my fair CS-licenses.
Money that went to Quark, Apple, AVID, Affinity and many others.
Glad to see the Adobe Logos more and more seldom.


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walter biscardi
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 9, 2016 at 10:08:05 pm

Autodesk is now subscription only as of February 1, 2016. No more perpetual licenses or physical software.

http://www.autodesk.com/subscription

It's a good business model.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

Craft and Career Advice & Training from real Working Creative Professionals

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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 9, 2016 at 10:36:51 pm
Last Edited By Rainer Schubert on Feb 9, 2016 at 10:44:01 pm

And whooomm…
ADSK ( Autodesk - the good business model ) dropped down 33% at Stock market since December (-9% since 1. Februar).
Seems, like all those matured (nearby monopolists in their fields) applications want to maximize profit by changing their business model.
But, Walter - if you like it, stay lucky with it.
I don´t want business models like Adobes or even Autodesk.
Or at least the horrible Win 10 model.
As long as there are fair competitors I will not rent software (and the ability to modify my own creations).
Nor Adobe, nor Autodesk, nor Office and so on.
And I´m very lucky, there are others who see it the same way.


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Ryan Holmes
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 9, 2016 at 10:49:21 pm

[Rainer Schubert] "ADSK ( Autodesk - the good business model ) dropped down 33% at Stock market since December. "

The global stock market has been down since December. The DOW and Nasdaq in America have fallen consistently since December, Germany's DAX and France's CAC are down over 3% since then too. Nearly all stocks are getting hammered right now - Tech, Medical, Oil. I'm only saying, don't take such a narrow view. Look at the stocks performance over a longer term (unless your a short seller, then by all means short away! :-) Autodesk tends to run around $35-$50, so their numbers aren't really that dramatically different.

Ryan Holmes
http://www.ryanholmes.me
@CutColorPost


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 9, 2016 at 11:02:05 pm

Tx Ryan.
Be sure - I´m not worried about Adobe or Autodesk.
And, yes, true, Many stocks dropping down since december.
But to be true - Adobe was hopeless overrated at least.


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Ryan Holmes
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 9, 2016 at 11:14:08 pm
Last Edited By Ryan Holmes on Feb 9, 2016 at 11:18:10 pm

[Rainer Schubert] "But to be true - Adobe was hopeless overrated at least."

Well again...looking at Adobe's stock performance over the last 5 years I think you'd likely draw a different conclusion. They've more than doubled the share price.

Adobe's Stock Graph for 5 years



Ryan Holmes
http://www.ryanholmes.me
@CutColorPost


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 9, 2016 at 11:56:39 pm

Doubling Stock Price by only taking away choice & changing business model…
Not fair for those who are not the monopolists.
In my Eyes Adobe is still overrated at all.


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Tim Wilson
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 10, 2016 at 4:10:16 am

[Ryan Holmes] "Well again...looking at Adobe's stock performance over the last 5 years I think you'd likely draw a different conclusion. They've more than doubled the share price."

Just for grins, I ran a comparison to Apple and the NASDAQ composite. Apple's up 90% over 5 years, better than the NASDAQ average of 50%, but yeah, still not as good as Adobe's 109%.

What I wanted to underscore is that Apple's most recent drop started nearly 2 full months earlier (Nov 2 vs Dec 28), and has fallen further than Adobe. But in fact, Apple started dropping in MAY, while Adobe was still climbing.



So, one conclusion could be that both Apple and Adobe have slightly underperformed the NASDAQ exchange as a whole right now, but the exchange as a whole is in fact down.

Or we could look at the past year and say, wow, Apple's stock price is down 24% over the past year!!! At least Adobe is up a little better than 1%. That's not very good, but the last time I checked, +1 > -24.

But no. It appears that the conversation we're going to have is whether the loud dissatisfaction of Adobe customers has at long, long, LONG last FINALLY, just NOW, in the past couple of months, FINALLY begun to be reflected in the investment community, heralding the long-predicted, inevitable doom that Adobe has brought upon itself.

Which is fine. This is a debate forum.

But I brought in Apple to raise the REAL question -- if Apple has fallen farther, and been falling longer, then they may must have done something REALLY bad.

As part of my own diversification strategy, I never invest in the market sector I work in, so currently no tech-specific holdings for Timmy. As a result, I may have missed the memo about the disaster underway at Apple.

Because if Adobe's stock decline is being driven by Adobe's misdeeds, Apple's mideeds by definition have to be worse. So maybe y'all can fill me in.

Unless Adobe's stock being flat over the past year is because of misdeeds, but Apple being down 30% over the past year is because of NO misdeeds?

But no, the argument seems to be Adobe screwed up, and their stock price is telling the tale. But the tale told by Apple's stock is so much worse!!! So what's the tale?

Has Apple lost 30% of its stock price in the past few months because of the quivering outrage of Apple's customers?

Because Apple has tried to force some hated change on the market?

What heinous acts have Apple perpetrated?

What foul perfidy of Apple's has been exposed?

Is it crime? Is it incompetence? Is it betrayal?

Because Apple must have done something really bad, or be doing something colossally wrong over the past few months. They're clearly doomed. It's just a matter of time.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to hearing what those heartless, brain dead morons at Apple have screwed up THIS time. Fill me in, lads!


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Jason Watson
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 10, 2016 at 4:05:32 am

[Rainer Schubert] "But to be true - Adobe was hopeless overrated at least."

What rationale is there behind describing it as being overrated? And if it is overrated, by how much?


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 10, 2016 at 10:02:43 am

Overrated?
Because I can´t see, why a company can double it´s Stock Market Price within a few years by …
...cutting off half of customers
…taking away choice
…changing only business model (and call itself "Cloud")
…try to establish "Software as a Service"


How much?
Don´t ask me.
If I had to decide...


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Jason Watson
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 10, 2016 at 2:20:34 pm

[Rainer Schubert] "Because I can´t see, why a company can double it´s Stock Market Price within a few years by …
...cutting off half of customers"


In what way have they cut off half of their customers?

[Rainer Schubert] "…taking away choice"

Adobe seems to think that the product it is offering represents a better value for its customers and a better return for itself; based on the numbers, it's hard to argue that this idea has been incorrect. Sure, the choice of the perpetual license is gone, but given the subscription growth compared to the perpetual license it might be argued that this lack of choice isn't something that its growing base of subscribers are as concerned with. Are some unhappy with it? Sure. But it doesn't seem to have affected Adobe's growth or revenue, so as far as that is concerned it doesn't seem to be a major factor.

[Rainer Schubert] "…changing only business model (and call itself "Cloud")"

One reason the change in business model has been so successful is that Adobe is now at the point where recurring revenue represents around 75% of its total revenue.

[Rainer Schubert] "How much?
Don´t ask me."


So is "hopelessly overrated" just some vague feeling about its value?


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walter biscardi
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 10, 2016 at 2:33:10 pm

[Jason Watson] "[Rainer Schubert] "Because I can´t see, why a company can double it´s Stock Market Price within a few years by …
...cutting off half of customers"

In what way have they cut off half of their customers? "


I would definitely have to agree with that. Where is the quantification that Adobe has cut off half of its customers. There's not quantification to back up the "loss of 50% of Adobe customers."

As for "taking away choice' in fact what Adobe has done is given us everything for one flat fee. They've ADDED choices of tools for me to use. I don't have to decide between 4 or 5 "suites" of software to purchase. Pay one fee, get all of the tools.

But as the point of this forum is merely to complain that one cannot own the software any longer, I'm not sure any of this really matters.

Tim Wilson really hit it on the head by using actual facts and not conjecture and complaining in his post about how much better Adobe is doing than Apple. Of course Apple's problems are not stemming from FCPX since that is a blip on the revenue for them. It's more about how the "Apple experience" is not what it once was with very sloppy software all around and more than normal buggy OS releases.

Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media

Craft and Career Advice & Training from real Working Creative Professionals

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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 10, 2016 at 3:12:45 pm
Last Edited By Rainer Schubert on Feb 10, 2016 at 3:43:16 pm

[walter biscardi] "There's not quantification to back up the "loss of 50% of Adobe customers."
Referring to Adobes Business Reports, CS-Licenses were sold 12.8 Mil+ times (Last numbers they made official).
CC just reached an amount of a bit more than 6 Million subscribers. Within the 4 years since its market intro.
That´s what was meant with "cut off half of former customers"
(Simply min. the half of former customers didn´t like/bought into this business modell)

[walter biscardi] "given us everything for one flat fee"
Flat?
The costs of the full CC Membership are compareable with a ever upgraded former Master-Collection.
There is absolutely nothing Adobe has donated.
You have to buy and pay for all.
And if you ever quit and want to change your work later - you have to pay again in most cases.
Or: If you payed a fee like that you got all the tools also in the past.
(Or why Adobe makes more revenue - not profit - with less customers?)

[walter biscardi] "that one cannot own the software any longer, I'm not sure any of this really matters"
Please let me decide on my own, if this is important for me or not.
If it´s not for you - OK. Got it.
I know enough, for whom this is the essential NoGo.

[walter biscardi] "and complaining in his post about how much better Adobe is doing than Apple"
…and I was just wondering, why he throws Apple into the game???
Sure - They are also downgraded at Wall-Street, but they are a totally different company.
And… Why comparing about 5 years and coming to the conclusion Adobe is "the winner" (105 to 90 %)
Compare it about 10 years and Apple will win by a mile (900% to 94%)…
What sense does it make to compare Apples with (so called) clouds? And comparing last 5 yrs?
This thread here is about the Cloud and not about Apples.
And if there is a place for complaining - where else than here?

If you are lucky on the clouds - enjoy.


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 10, 2016 at 3:28:42 pm

[Jason Watson] "In what way have they cut off half of their customers"
See the answer given to Walter

[Jason Watson] "But it doesn't seem to have affected Adobe's growth or revenue"
Their growth of revenue? Already said: They bought a lot of companies in the last years (like fotolia f ex.) and this also has impact in revenue.
Bigger company - More revenue.
And revenue isn´t the most important thing. As I already wrote: Their Net income was nearby 20%+ in 2011.
And I will bet my a.. that they will not reach that risings of Subscriptions and revenue in 2016 again.
Because the last unwilling CS-users took the chance in late 2015 - shortly before they cut the discounts for former users.
Maybe, they can talk with their friends at microsoft, that one of the following "forced updates" of Win 10 will destroy the ability to use CS-products…
But many of CS-users are lucky with what they have.
Lets wait and see.

[Jason Watson] "where recurring revenue represents around 75% of its total revenue"
As they official don´t sell fair-CS licenses any more. Who wonders
(PS.: Not 100% right - You ca still order CS products by phone/not via web)

[Jason Watson] "So is "hopelessly overrated" just some vague feeling about its value?"
Yes


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Jason Watson
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 12, 2016 at 1:24:24 pm

[Rainer Schubert] "Referring to Adobes Business Reports, CS-Licenses were sold 12.8 Mil+ times (Last numbers they made official).
CC just reached an amount of a bit more than 6 Million subscribers. Within the 4 years since its market intro.
That´s what was meant with "cut off half of former customers"
(Simply min. the half of former customers didn´t like/bought into this business modell)
"


The difficulty here is that it is simply non sequitur to subtract 6 million subscriptions of a product over a certain period of time from 12 million installs of 5 versions of a product over a longer period of time and conclude that this represents cutting off half of its customers.

One might consider this: someone who bought CS3 and never upgraded to anything else or purchased another adobe product has a product that as of right now is nearly a decade old and hasn't purchased anything else from Adobe (as far as its creative products are concerned). Does this really represent "cutting off a customer" in the same way that someone who had CS6 and didn't upgrade to CC because they disliked the subscription model is supposedly "cut off?" Without knowing the situations for each purchase or lack thereof, how would one thus meaningfully quantify the number of customers supposedly "cut off?," especially since different products and time frames are involved?

The more important aspect of these numbers is that from 2007 to 2012 Adobe gained 12+ million individual installs (which is not necessarily an equivalent number of customers) which represented revenue only at the point of purchase, whereas from 2012 to 2015 Adobe gained 6+ million subscriptions which represent recurring revenue every year; it's not difficult to see why they think going subscription only is a good strategy.

[Rainer Schubert] "Their growth of revenue?"

No, I said growth OR revenue.

[Rainer Schubert] "Already said: They bought a lot of companies in the last years (like fotolia f ex.) and this also has impact in revenue.
Bigger company - More revenue. "


It has impact on revenue, but not as much as CC subscriptions did. Out of Adobe's 4.8 billion dollar revenue last year, 2.9 billion was recurring revenue from their digital media division, growing by 1.9 billion, the lion's share of which was a result of new CC subscriptions.

[Rainer Schubert] "And I will bet my a.. that they will not reach that risings of Subscriptions and revenue in 2016 again.
Because the last unwilling CS-users took the chance in late 2015 - shortly before they cut the discounts for former users. "


What is the substantiation for this assertion?


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 12, 2016 at 4:50:27 pm
Last Edited By Rainer Schubert on Feb 12, 2016 at 4:51:56 pm

[Jason Watson] "The difficulty here is that it is simply non sequitur to subtract 6 million subscriptions of a product over a certain period..."
CS 6 was sold more often than 5.6 million times within it´s first year.

[Jason Watson] "One might consider this: someone who bought CS3..."
The numbers, Adobe gave in its investor handout 2013, were for the INSTALLED base of users.
(7.2 million CS 3-5 users & 5.6 CS 6 users at that time)

[Jason Watson] "...it's not difficult to see why they think going subscription only is a good strategy"
Exactly. It´s an advantage for Adobe.
(Nothing against paying constant fee like a maintenance agreement etc. But never for renting the tools, i created my files with)

[Jason Watson] "It has impact on revenue..."
After all very interesting, that they had 20+% more net. profit in 2011, or?

[Jason Watson] "What is the substantiation for this assertion?"
Because I think, that the users who were not willing to subscripe, but had the feeling they must / had to (to stay compatible f ex), have taken the last chance to get a discount.
Now, the rest are those (like me) who will not rent their tools. Those, who don´t want to give Adobe money, if they want to open their files after subscription.


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Jason Watson
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 12, 2016 at 9:28:34 pm

[Rainer Schubert] "CS 6 was sold more often than 5.6 million times within it´s first year."

That number also involves upgrade paths and maintenance agreements, whereas CC subscriptions are a different product and business model, making the comparison not just a straightforward matter of subtraction.

[Rainer Schubert] "The numbers, Adobe gave in its investor handout 2013, were for the INSTALLED base of users.
(7.2 million CS 3-5 users & 5.6 CS 6 users at that time)"

My point is that the revenue from those 12 million installs is limited to the point at which they were purchased, whereas the subscriptions represent recurring revenue year to year. That's why (among other reasons) the number of installs vs. subscriptions isn't a straightforward matter of subtraction.

[Rainer Schubert] "Exactly. It´s an advantage for Adobe."

Here you would seem to agree with the points I have been making if you state that it's an advantage for Adobe.

[Rainer Schubert] "After all very interesting, that they had 20+% more net. profit in 2011, or?"

There are lots of reasons one might have a difference in net profit in one year vs. another year that don't have anything to do with the success of one's business model.

[Rainer Schubert] "Because I think, that the users who were not willing to subscripe, but had the feeling they must / had to (to stay compatible f ex), have taken the last chance to get a discount."

A vague feeling about something isn't substantiation. No doubt there are some users who feel/felt this way, but without knowing the numbers or the situations it's impossible to reach this conclusion just based on a vague feeling.

[Rainer Schubert] "Now, the rest are those (like me) who will not rent their tools. Those, who don´t want to give Adobe money, if they want to open their files after subscription."

The rest of who?

And why must it be a false choice between those who, as you say, felt compelled to subscribe and those who won't "rent their tools?" Again, I don't disagree that there are likely many in this camp, but there's no way to really quantify this aside from doing some really intensive market research.


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Ryan Holmes
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 12, 2016 at 4:50:52 pm

[Jason Watson] "The difficulty here is that it is simply non sequitur to subtract 6 million subscriptions of a product over a certain period of time from 12 million installs of 5 versions of a product over a longer period of time and conclude that this represents cutting off half of its customers. "

Jason, while an astute observation you must not spend much time in this forum! :-) Non sequiturs are a way of life here, my friend!

[Jason Watson] "One might consider this: someone who bought CS3 and never upgraded to anything else or purchased another adobe product has a product that as of right now is nearly a decade old and hasn't purchased anything else from Adobe (as far as its creative products are concerned). Does this really represent "cutting off a customer" in the same way that someone who had CS6 and didn't upgrade to CC because they disliked the subscription model is supposedly "cut off?" Without knowing the situations for each purchase or lack thereof, how would one thus meaningfully quantify the number of customers supposedly "cut off?," especially since different products and time frames are involved? "

So to unpack this a little bit, I think the general angst from the "non-subscriber" camp is that if you bought CS3 you can keep working in that software in perpetuity (provided you keep a machine that's stable, working, with no further OS updates, etc, etc). With the CC model, provided you hopped off this year, when that client comes back next year and you're now using DaVinci Resolve you would have to pay again in order to hop back on the CC train to edit your work. In that sense, the non-CC people say that "you've lost your work." At which point, the CC camp says you can just bill the client or save your work out in a standard interchange format so that you can always jump ship (good practice regardless of your software of choice anyway).

It seems to me, as a middle-of-the-road guy that I can see both camps positions (full disclosure: I am a paying CC member with 5 seats for my team and nearly 50 seats campus wide). It boils down to a changed business model. Software as a service. Because so many of us have worked in and around the computer industry for so long we began to expect that software was always a perpetual license which is bought one time each year or one time every other year. But various things have pushed that to change - tax laws, internet distribution, speed of updates, how people use various services, Wall St expectations, shareholders expectations, long-term company planning, etc. It's not any one thing, but the collective approach now seems to be moving away from perpetual licensing to a subscription model for a variety of things - file storage (AWS, Dropbox, iCloud), software (Microsoft 365, Adobe, Autodesk, Red Giant and Avid which both have a hybrid approach), etc

Much of the dust kicked up around CC has always reminded me of when FCPX came out in 2011. Eventually, it settles out to those who like it use it, those who don't move on. Because like Apple this is the chart that Adobe picked to navigate. And ultimately if you don't like the direction you're pragmatically left with 2 options: (1) Take a different path, or (2) Stay on the path with that company. For many FCP7 users that meant getting off when FCPX came out. For many CS6 users that meant staying with CS6 until it dies because they didn't want the CC model. As time goes on, some have returned back to FCPX and found its utility. And as time goes, some CS6 users are moving on with or without the CC model. I also don't assume any of this is forever. Apple will eventually release FCP11 which may or may not continue as their current business model does (or maybe they won't release anything else :-) and Adobe will eventually move onto other software and possibly other business models. Things change. All of this makes for fun discussion, but it's not forever.

Ryan Holmes
http://www.ryanholmes.me
@CutColorPost


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Jason Watson
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 12, 2016 at 9:45:04 pm

[Ryan Holmes] "So to unpack this a little bit, I think the general angst from the "non-subscriber" camp is that if you bought CS3 you can keep working in that software in perpetuity (provided you keep a machine that's stable, working, with no further OS updates, etc, etc)."

I agree that this is a good description of much of the angst, at least as far as I see it manifested online. I was probably a little less precise in what I was trying to get it than I should have been.

My thought was that if (say) someone bought CS3 and then never bought anything again from Adobe over the intervening time to CC, the changeover to CC would not necessarily represent a "cutting off" like the example of someone who bought CS6 and didn't want to upgrade specifically because they didn't like the subscription model.

In the case of the CS3 owner, there are myriad reasons they may have never or upgraded to any of the other CS versions or subscribed to CC that wouldn't reasonably be categorized as being "cut off" because of the CC model. For example, they might have bought CS3 back in '07 to play around with, but then decided to not upgrade because other things took priority. Another person might have been using it for a business but then moved on to something else. Tons of other scenarios could be easily adduced.

Anyway, that was ultimately what I was trying to get at; that simply subtracting 6 million from 12 million doesn't even come close to capturing the whole story, and it definitely doesn't necessitate that all of those CS installs represent a customer cut off because of the move to CC, which is (as far as I can tell) what Rainer was arguing.


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Ryan Holmes
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 13, 2016 at 2:43:35 am

[Jason Watson] "In the case of the CS3 owner, there are myriad reasons they may have never or upgraded to any of the other CS versions or subscribed to CC that wouldn't reasonably be categorized as being "cut off" because of the CC model. For example, they might have bought CS3 back in '07 to play around with, but then decided to not upgrade because other things took priority. Another person might have been using it for a business but then moved on to something else. Tons of other scenarios could be easily adduced."

Correct. The revenue for CS3 was realized at the point of purchase, and unless they upgrade to CS4, CS5, CS5.5, or CS6 then the install base argument is a bit skewed. Again, it reminds me of the FCPX numbers floating around about how many user have purchased it. That number continues to grow regardless of if those people are actually even using it after purchase. It doesn't factor in the people who download it, open it, and never use it again.

[Jason Watson] "My thought was that if (say) someone bought CS3 and then never bought anything again from Adobe over the intervening time to CC, the changeover to CC would not necessarily represent a "cutting off" like the example of someone who bought CS6 and didn't want to upgrade specifically because they didn't like the subscription model. "

Agreed. The idea that people are ever "cut off" seems strange to me because I can't believe people don't export out file formats that are open-standards when a project is done - EDL, XML, AAF. The notion that I'm ever only going to live in one NLE until the end of my career is crazy. I've already been through half-a-dozen edit platforms on different formats. But I keep bringing along old work as needed due to always leaving myself an out. Yes, it takes time to rebuild the project in a new NLE and sometimes things don't transfer perfectly, but I've never been left in the cold because a company decided to drop support for a product or platform. There are always ways out, it just depends on if they're worthwhile enough for you to invest in them.

Ryan Holmes
http://www.ryanholmes.me
@CutColorPost


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 14, 2016 at 6:21:50 pm

There is a lot of software I have bought and didn't continue to use for one reason or another. The vendor still was paid for it, and I still have a machine that will probably run it. I even have a Quadra 950 backupr form my Avid ABVB, but haven't used Avid for years. As far as NLE's, I own five, but really only use three, likely soon four. Resolve was just loaded. 12.3.1 should be pretty far along. Looking forward to trying it. Often fall back to Media 100 because it is quick and quality is excellent. 2.1.7 supports all the way through El Capitan, Has Red support, 4K, (don't need it), etc. Working in standard HD formats and Teranex up-resed SD archival footage documentaries.

Four and perhaps five good reasons not to pay rental forever. And none of them ever erased important root folders. Lets hear it for all those great new "features".

http://forums.macrumors.com/threads/adobe-creative-cloud-update-bug-deletes...

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.2, Final Cut Studio 2 & 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC: Mid 2015 MacBook Pro Retina 15": 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro Retina 2015, i7, 500GB, M370X 2GB: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 14, 2016 at 7:17:19 pm

Addendum: Sorry about the two typos above. Couldn't get into "Edit". Also completely forgot about Premiere, so you can add another one to two Categories, "Own" and "No Longer Use". I did use it for creation of ProRes to move to the other edit systems, sometimes titles. But FCPX does ProRes in the background which is a lot more convenient. Was happily learning Premiere when they pulled the rug out with their new business model so put me in Rainer's group of no more cash for Adobe. And also, the idea that XML, AAF, etc. is the same thing or even close to the original native program format really does't cut it. Not even close. There are no NLE's I own that I can't open the original program file without further payment. Oh, and Apple's in their last quarter reported the largest profit of any company in history. Bottom Line, as they say in the business world, if we are going to reduce this debate to the stock market.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.3, Final Cut Studio 2 & 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5 5.5 and 6.0, Resolve 12.3.1, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC: Mid 2015 MacBook Pro Retina 15": 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro Retina 2015, i7, 500GB, M370X 2GB: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Feb 14, 2016 at 10:00:26 pm

[Jim Wiseman] " And also, the idea that XML, AAF, etc. is the same thing or even close to the original native program format really does't cut it. Not even close."

No one ever said that though. Ryan even said:
[Ryan Holmes] "Yes, it takes time to rebuild the project in a new NLE and sometimes things don't transfer perfectly,"

How far XML etc., can take you certainly varies from project to project. I recently used XML to take a pitch reel (done by another editor) from FCP 7 to PPro and the only things that didn't come across cleanly were some plugins (I didn't own them so they would've been a problem no matter what), titles done in Title 3D and the color grading (which was done w/FCP's 3-way tool). Everything else from the 8min long piece showed up in PPro exactly how it was in FCP 7. Not all project moves will be this smooth but not all project moves will be dumpster fires either.

I know you are willing and able to stockpile all the hardware and software you've used over the years (including software upgrades, drivers, firmware updates, serial/license numbers, adapters, etc.,) but not everyone is in the same position. I shudder to think about the collection of dust gathering decks, computers and accessories I'd have to house in a storage unit in order to keep a 'frozen in time' version of all the different systems I'v worked on (and I've only been at this for 15yrs!). I just don't have the space, or the desire, to keep it all. You are okay doing what it takes to stay within an ecosystem indefinitely and I'm okay doing what it takes to move between ecosystems.

I also know much of your work is not the typical fare so it's probably more intrinsic to some of your projects to stay with the original equipment than for the types of projects that many others work on.


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David Roth Weiss
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Mar 16, 2016 at 11:15:07 pm

[Ryan Holmes] "Jason, while an astute observation you must not spend much time in this forum! :-) Non sequiturs are a way of life here, my friend!"

My first time ever reading posts on this forum, and your statement above is about the most well-reasoned thing I've read here so far Ryan.

(***with the exclusion of posts by Tim Wilson and Andrew Kimery, who try their best to be both impartial and unemotional)

David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist & Workflow Consultant
David Weiss Productions
Los Angeles


David is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.


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Ryan Holmes
Re: Adobe's Record Revenue Shows the way to Business Transformation
on Mar 17, 2016 at 2:39:04 am

[David Roth Weiss] "My first time ever reading posts on this forum, and your statement above is about the most well-reasoned thing I've read here so far Ryan."

ha ha, thanks! Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile! So too, I have the occasional "moment."

Ryan Holmes
http://www.ryanholmes.me
@CutColorPost


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