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crazy conspiracy theory for CC

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Mike Jeffs
crazy conspiracy theory for CC
on May 14, 2013 at 11:25:31 pm

Here is my crazy conspiracy theory. I think that with Adobe you have their bread and butter software, Photoshop, Indesign, and Illustrator these apps are quite mature and well developed, in that in reality there isn’t a lot of update potential. Especially not enough to have full blown version updates. Hence CS next and not CS7. Because of this Adobe is looking at a way that they can still monetize these applications even when they can’t have major upgrades. CC aims to fix this. I think Premiere and After Effect and the other smaller apps still have lots more that can be put in them but in the grand scheme of Adobe Apps I don’t think there is as much adoption as compared to the design suite of tools. So if they can get us all to pay a subscription for the Master suite or the design suite, they will be able to afford the R&D on the lower end apps with people paying to use their big 3. While still making a profit.
I have no reason or evidence to back this up, just a hunch and a crazy idea. So what you think am I way off in left field? Thoughts opinions?

Mike Jeffs
Video Coordinator
BYU-Idaho


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Frank Gothmann
Re: crazy conspiracy theory for CC
on May 15, 2013 at 12:00:07 am

Really good software costs money. A lot of it. Especially when it comes to improving non-flashy, "non-inovative" features and tech that doesn't make headlines. Unfortunately, it's mostly the flashy things that tend to make people talk and most likely to get people to upgrade. More often than not (not just Adobe) there is a ton of new stuff thrown in and hardly any time to let the existing tools mature and develop. Over ten years in the making and video IO is still crap in CS6 in Premiere (as it is in FCP X). I keep my fingers crossed for Premiere Next. In fact, that's my no. 1 on the wish list.

Look at Compressor and what is does: 50 dollars. Then look at Cinemacraft HD which only does AVC and MVC: 60.000 dollars.
Difference? Uncompromising quality at the very core of what is does.
If the CC model allows inovation and new features as well as improvements and resources to work on specialised, niche features that may not make heads turn but are vital to professional tools, I am all for it.
If it doesn't turn out that way... than I can complain. At the moment... no.

------
"You also agree that you will not use these products for... the development, design, manufacture or production of nuclear, missiles, or chemical or biological weapons."
iTunes End User Licence Agreement


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Chris Harlan
Re: crazy conspiracy theory for CC
on May 15, 2013 at 12:03:49 am

[Frank Gothmann] "If the CC model allows inovation and new features as well as improvements and resources to work on specialised, niche features that may not make heads turn but are vital to professional tools, I am all for it.
If it doesn't turn out that way... than I can complain. At the moment... no.
"


On most days, that's about where my head is, too.


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Shawn Miller
Re: crazy conspiracy theory for CC
on May 15, 2013 at 8:16:13 am

[Mike Jeffs] " I think Premiere and After Effect and the other smaller apps still have lots more that can be put in them..."

I'm not sure you understand how mature After Effects and Illustrator are, both are at the top of their respective niches. These applications have room to grow, to be sure... but so does Photoshop. Premiere Pro, though not as mature as After Effects, is still pretty widely used in non-broadcast environments; event, corporate, independent film production.

[Mike Jeffs] "...but in the grand scheme of Adobe Apps I don’t think there is as much adoption as compared to the design suite of tools."

I think you should have a look at these:

http://www.motionvfx.com/mblog/hud_for_iron_man_designed_with_the_aid_of_il...

http://www.adobe.com/products/aftereffects/showcase.html

http://blogs.adobe.com/aftereffects/2013/01/marvels-the-avengers-taking-the...

http://www.animationmagazine.net/vfx/cinema-4d-aids-futuristic-vision-of-ob...

http://tv.adobe.com/watch/adobe-at-nab-2013/paul-graff-crazy-horse-effects/

Shawn



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Mike Jeffs
Re: crazy conspiracy theory for CC
on May 15, 2013 at 1:36:34 pm

My point wasn't that premiere and after effects aren't used in their respective fields. They are, We teach both extensively here at our university. But compared to the amount of actually users of photoshop illustrator and indesign. Far more jobs and industries use them over the video tools. i see that every graduation when it comes time for students to find jobs. My point was that after effects and premiere have room to grow with major updates. I don't see that with the design tools as much. Hence adobe creating a subscription model to keep revenue coming in for their mature apps without the need to do major upgrades and and new flashy product moving features.

Mike Jeffs
Video Coordinator
BYU-Idaho


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Shawn Miller
Re: crazy conspiracy theory for CC
on May 15, 2013 at 6:14:27 pm

[Mike Jeffs] "My point wasn't that premiere and after effects aren't used in their respective fields. They are, We teach both extensively here at our university. But compared to the amount of actually users of photoshop illustrator and indesign. Far more jobs and industries use them over the video tools."

I see your point, but I'm still not inclined to agree. AE and Premiere Pro may have smaller respective user bases, but I don't think they're being subsidized by Photoshop and Illustrator. My guess would be that AE and Premiere actually help sell the design tools. I doubt very many video professionals are using GIMP and Corel Draw, for instance. So, while the 'general use' nature of Photoshop probably guarantees a larger user base, it doesn't mean that the video side isn't making a healthy profit that supports further development.

[Mike Jeffs] "My point was that after effects and premiere have room to grow with major updates. I don't see that with the design tools as much."

I agree to disagree. :-) I think most of the design tools have healthy room for growth. Photoshop for instance, could do with better support for HDR imaging, better stitching capabilities and better 3D paint/UV unwrap. IMO, these few features alone could support major updates for years to come, same with Illustrator... it's mature, but (IMO) nowhere near finished. :-)

Overall, I don't think CC is here because the design tools are too close to being perfect (or at least done), while the video tools aren't making enough profit to sustain R&D. I believe that the subscription model provides the best way for Adobe to ensure predictable revenues and more accurate quarterly forecasts, regardless of where they are in the product cycle... that's it... or at least, that's my opinion. :-)

Thanks,

Shawn



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Brandon Cordy
Re: crazy conspiracy theory for CC
on May 15, 2013 at 6:40:47 pm

There's plenty of upgrade potential for all three.

Photoshop could still use more color-mode flexible filters, more non-destructive editing abilities, etc.

Illustrator needs to be able to take better advantage of multi-threading.

InDesign will have to continue to keep pace with digital design requirements as new formats come onto the scene.

Cleaning up the paneling in all three is important as well.

In this industry, software can't afford to become stagnant or "mature". It can become more stable, but change is going to be constant.


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Shawn Miller
Re: crazy conspiracy theory for CC
on May 15, 2013 at 7:11:31 pm

[Brandon Cordy] "Photoshop could still use more color-mode flexible filters, more non-destructive editing abilities, etc.

Illustrator needs to be able to take better advantage of multi-threading.

Cleaning up the paneling in all three is important as well."


^this!

I just don't understand why Photoshop and Illustrator have different 3D engines... Illustrator's 3D extrude effect feels like a consumer application from the 90's. Yes, plenty of work to be done here.

Shawn



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Jim Wiseman
Re: crazy conspiracy theory for CC
on May 15, 2013 at 7:33:45 pm

Why does software improvement require a subscription model? Do they have to lock us in to be competitive? Do they have to lock us in to give Photoshop decent multi-threading? Not buying it. Either there is competition or there is not. Aren't they making enough money now? If they are not, where do you think it will come from? It will come from us, the users who will have nowhere else that is viable to go. Oh, but it will come from broadening the base. I just answered a post from someone who is convinced that Adobe is going for the high end. Can't have it both ways. High end is narrow. Broad is price sensitive.

I honestly think people are being sucked into this because of the seemingly low monthly cost (an illusion) and a promise that once you are locked in and can't go back, they will be innovative. That's an awfully slender branch to go out on given Adobe's forthrightness over the last year. I do not trust their upper management. Certainly not with my work without a fallback.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1,Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.3, Premiere Pro 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Avid MC, Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 8Gb SSD, G5 Quadcore PCIe


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Shawn Miller
Re: crazy conspiracy theory for CC
on May 15, 2013 at 7:57:53 pm

[Jim Wiseman] "Why does software improvement require a subscription model?"

Hi Jim,

I assume you were talking to me? If so, I wasn't arguing that point, the original poster was. That the CC subscription was implemented so that the design tools would subsidize further development of the video tools.

Shawn



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