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Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.

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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 21, 2015 at 11:26:23 pm

The investors seems happy enough with Adobe.

One could speculate whether the all time high share-price is due to general market conditions, share buy-back scheme, Launch of document cloud, not purchasing The Foundry, investor ignorance, announcement of animation sync tool - or maybe it is that the company has proved that they are on the right track with a solid line-up of product innovation?

Tick anyone of the boxes you like the most - I personally prefer the idea of a great product.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Gary Huff
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 22, 2015 at 12:54:17 am

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "I personally prefer the idea of a great product."

Yep.


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Steve Connor
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 25, 2015 at 7:13:01 pm

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "or maybe it is that the company has proved that they are on the right track with a solid line-up of product innovation?
"


If you're not getting any response from statements like this then this forum's probably run it's course :)


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David Mathis
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 25, 2015 at 11:21:05 pm

Aindreas did subscribe so I think the debate is pretty much over. ;-)


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 26, 2015 at 7:16:28 am

[David Mathis] "Aindreas did subscribe so I think the debate is pretty much over. ;-)"

Hopefully not, as the Cloud will only continue to improve if we keep "debating" how it can be better - past the point of licensing issues...

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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David Mathis
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 26, 2015 at 4:04:09 pm

I must respectfully disagree about licensing issues, as it is an important point and discussion of the debate. With that said, a discussion of how CC can be improved is just as important. While not interested in subscribing at the moment I do enjoy hearing about how the product line is being greatly improved.


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 26, 2015 at 10:01:51 pm

[David Mathis] "I must respectfully disagree about licensing issues, as it is an important point and discussion of the debate."

That is fair enough. I didn't intend to minimize the issue, except that there has previously been comments to the effect that Adobe would suffer financially as a result of discontinuing permanent licensees. My opinion is that with the increase in turn-over, and investor confidence, this argument have been parked at the back of the queue - for now.

However, it is correct that there should still be space for raising the issue of how a subscription model benefit the end user over that of a permanent license?

Nevertheless: I prefer the discussions to be centered on how Adobe can improve the CC apps, and using the cloud functionality better.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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David Mathis
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 26, 2015 at 10:11:32 pm

For some a subscription based model is beneficial but not a solution for everyone. I do see large business and enterprise as seeing a benefit. After all they are able to offset the cost. As for small business, those on a hobby level or otherwise have tight budget restraints for various reasons are probably not going to benefit. Perhaps there is a target audience that Adobe is interested in, being more medium to large size business. Not saying that small business will not benefit or not part of the demographics Adobe is interested in. I hope this does clarify my opinion. Glad to hear from you as always.


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Billy Payn
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 26, 2015 at 6:46:33 am

Interesting.
Did you know One Direction are the biggest 'band' in history even though they have no talent - even bigger than the Beatles who will be remembered for a long time yet.



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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 26, 2015 at 7:11:47 am

[Billy Payn] "Did you know One Direction are the biggest 'band' in history even though they have no talent - even bigger than the Beatles who will be remembered for a long time yet."

Talent is all in the eye of the beholder ;-)

Although it will be interesting to see if 1D will be around for 29 years - and selling "songs" at $80 a pop :-)

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Gary Huff
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 27, 2015 at 4:16:50 am

[Billy Payn] "Did you know One Direction are the biggest 'band' in history even though they have no talent"

Funny, that's just what your parents' generation said about the Beatles.


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Billy Payn
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 27, 2015 at 10:04:24 pm

My parents were Beatles mad! I lived with their songs from age .



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Gary Huff
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 27, 2015 at 11:37:06 pm

[Billy Payn] "My parents were Beatles mad! I lived with their songs from age ."

Then it was their parents' generation.


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Shawn Miller
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 28, 2015 at 4:53:33 pm

[Gary Huff] "[Billy Payn] "Did you know One Direction are the biggest 'band' in history even though they have no talent"

Funny, that's just what your parents' generation said about the Beatles."


Yup, the Beatles were the 1D of their day!

Shawn



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Billy Payn
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 29, 2015 at 6:44:15 am

Yes they were, but theyre the Beatles of today, 45 years after they split up. People are still making pilgrimages from all over the world to stand on the crossing outside Abbey Rd studios, and write on the wall there and at the old beatles hq. They wrote their own music and were talented, and are still admired. 1D are not in the same league, theyve been pumped up in a boardroom by cynical greedy people. Ill be very surprised if they are still being revered for their offerings in 45 years. If so, my worst fears for humanity will have been surpassed.



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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 30, 2015 at 2:33:36 am

Who the heck is 1D? No one could have said that about the Beatles 45 years ago. Or even today.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.1.4, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.5, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1 TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD


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Gary Huff
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 30, 2015 at 3:08:44 am
Last Edited By Gary Huff on May 30, 2015 at 3:09:07 am

[Billy Payn] " 1D are not in the same league"

Some things just aren’t done. Like drinking Dom Perignon ’53 above 38 degrees Farenheit. That’s as bad as listening to the Beatles without earmuffs.

- Goldfinger, written by Richard Maibum.

[Jim Wiseman] "Who the heck is 1D? No one could have said that about the Beatles 45 years ago. Or even today."

They absolutely would have (though more like 50 years ago). Even more-so than today as we have far more lines of communication now. It was a veritable dark-age of communication in the 60s compared to today.


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 30, 2015 at 6:32:17 pm

Hey Billy,

I am not sure why one artist would want to bash another artist? Beatles by some, was by far not the greatest musician(s) that ever lived - some may say Mozart, Beethoven or ABBA. And by the test of time they will not be the biggest selling music act either. So why use them to bash 1D, of all bands with?
(For the record, I do like a lot of Beatles music)

What is the relevance of Beatles v 1D to a discussion about the Cloud, or Adobe?

However, since you began, please allow me to bring closing argument:

Beatles was formed in 1960 and broke up in 1970: 10 years

Adobe plc was formed in 1986 and is still going with the original founders on the board: 29 years+

In 2013 Beatles and its members, including their outside Beatles activities earned: $ 71 Million (Forbes)

In 2013 financial reporting Adobe plc had revenues of over: $ 4 Billion

Not forgetting: 1 Direction who in 2013 where Billboard reported: "Only the second boy band to reach at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 with its first three albums (following The Monkees in 1967)" A feast that Beatles never managed to accomplish.

Talking of important musical fan locations and their visitors: I'll bet that Elvis' Graceland makes more in annual revenue, than a Zebra crossing in St. John's wood.

Billy, I hope that this settles matters?

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 31, 2015 at 4:31:07 am
Last Edited By Jim Wiseman on May 31, 2015 at 4:32:31 am

1D sounds like an airline seat. I throw my boarding passes away. If you want to talk music, I have and appreciate music that was written 700 years ago and last month. All types. Of western popular art forms, the Beatles will definitely outlast 99% of the rest. 2115? Adobe who? Let alone the airline seat.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.1.4, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.5, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1 TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 31, 2015 at 8:42:51 am

[Jim Wiseman] "1D sounds like an airline seat. I throw my boarding passes away. If you want to talk music, I have and appreciate music that was written 700 years ago and last month. All types. Of western popular art forms, the Beatles will definitely outlast 99% of the rest. 2115? Adobe who? Let alone the airline seat."

Sorry, but I still don't get it?

Although it is impressive for Adobe to be compared with Beatles. As one is a musical band, and the other is a set of tools used by artist and crafts people all over - it is difficult to connect the dots.

Beatles are no more creating new and exciting music. Adobe is used everyday to create new and exciting work.
The work created using Adobe will stand the test of time - where as Adobe itself, will hopefully continue to grow and improve their tools for the rest of us to enjoy.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Billy Payn
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 31, 2015 at 6:38:03 pm

Hi sorry if the post was hard to grasp, perhaps lost in translation?
I was only pointing out that just because something makes lots of money, doesn't mean that everyone is going to think it's good. I was not drawing a comparison between Adobe and the Beatles, more perhaps pointing out similarities between the approach from the boardroom that seems shamelessly to put the bottom line first and ignore the wishes of at least some of the customers.

"The work created using Adobe will stand the test of time - where as Adobe itself, will hopefully continue to grow and improve their tools for the rest of us to enjoy."
Yes, however when I read this sentence I have to complete it for you by adding the words
"Who choose to rent the software under the terms currently offered by Adobe"
I believe you take the stance of 'Devils Advocate' when you post here which while I do find it amusing, also reinforces my resolve not to rent Adobe (or any) software.
Its no real bother but it is a shame. When CS6 really doesn't work well anymore I will move on. Til then, hundreds of pounds pet year to rent a few improvements?



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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 31, 2015 at 9:55:47 pm

[Billy Payn] "I was not drawing a comparison between Adobe and the Beatles, more perhaps pointing out similarities between the approach from the boardroom that seems shamelessly to put the bottom line first and ignore the wishes of at least some of the customers."

Actually, you just did; I don't think that you can find a single true Beatles fan who were not upset when the band decided to break up the "business" back in 1970...

Neither do I think that Apple Corps are known for their generosity to other companies trading as the "fruit", or allowing a generation of digital consumers to fully enjoy their music.

From that point of view you could argue that the business of Beatles, is more damaging to the customer, than the business of Adobe ;-)

[Billy Payn] "Yes, however when I read this sentence I have to complete it for you by adding the words
"Who choose to rent the software under the terms currently offered by Adobe""


I think that you are the one finding this hard to grasp: Adobe CC is a subscription service, that you can subscribe to for a long, or short, period of time. There are no rental involved and you do not hand anything back to Adobe the day you decide to stop your subscription. The software will just simply stop to work until the day you take out a new subscription.

[Billy Payn] "I believe you take the stance of 'Devils Advocate' when you post here which while I do find it amusing, also reinforces my resolve not to rent Adobe (or any) software.
Its no real bother but it is a shame. When CS6 really doesn't work well anymore I will move on. Til then, hundreds of pounds pet year to rent a few improvements?"


Are you saying that it is my fault alone as I am the "Devils Advocate"? And that you will throw all of your toys out of the kiddy sandbox, and not even give the 30 day free trial a go?

I don't know whether to be honored, offended or sad about your statement. However, it is your loss, not mine.

Nevertheless, creatively: a few people will find all of the 1000+ improvements in CC difficult to adapt to, and for that reason alone, I would recommend those to stay with what they know best. And if that for you is CS6, then nothing is lost and I wish you the best luck and hope that you will continue to do well with it.

On that point - I will close my part of the discussion here.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Tim Wilson
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on May 31, 2015 at 11:01:11 pm

My general of observation is that plenty of Beatles sales records have been broken. Some of The Beatles sales records were broken while they were still together, by groups including The Monkees and Simon & Garfunkel among others. Others of them never will be, but it doesn't matter. The scale of their impact and later influence isn't based on the number of records they sold. Nearly every other aspect of what The Beatles were was ultimately more important, and on nearly any of those levels, nobody will come close, ever.

One could say the same thing about Adobe too. Their stock is climbing in recognition of the numbers, which despite some nay-saying here, are yay-saying to professional investors with billions of dollars at stake in their portfolios. And it's impossible to argue that anyone has had the scale of Adobe's impact with After Effects, Photoshop, and yes, Premiere, which lit the fire of practical, extensible, hardware-independent non-linear editing years before anyone else even tried.

Any one of those would comfortably be enough to put Adobe in the pantheon. The three of them together? Untouchable. (Plus Pagemaker, Postscript, Acrobat, etc? Un. Touchable.)

None of which will have any influence on the attractiveness of the subscription model, but combining numbers and impact-beyond-sales combined, nobody will be passing Adobe in creative software any sooner than anybody will be passing The Beatles for, well, anything. :-)

But I don't see any signs that this will happen in our lifetimes, in either music or creative software.


[Billy Payn]: "I believe you take the stance of 'Devils Advocate' when you post here"

I'll let Mads speak for himself, but I don't think that "finding Adobe's offer compelling enough to pay for" has anything to do with "Devil's Advocate." Especially not in the rhetorical sense of "I don't really feel this way, but I'm going to put it out there anyway as a discussion point."

We refer to a debate here because there's an actual debate -- to the extent that the "compelling enough to pay for" folks have found it worth the effort to stick around here. There have been fewer and fewer over time because the mainstream of Adobe's customers have continued to move in the "yes" direction, and the overwhelming majority of the COW's Adobe-oriented traffic -- which is truly massive, hundreds of thousands of people a month -- has never seen fit to take up the debate at all.

Which doesn't reflect negatively on the "no" folks here at all. Feel what you feel, spend money or not as you see fit. The COW is equally about money and mouth. But I don't see any vectors that suggest another conclusion than that the more "no" spmebody becomes, the further from the mainstream they move.

Making, in fact, the "no" folks the ones who are taking the devil's position, even if not in the typically rhetorical sense of the phrase.

But I do think that suggesting that a "yes" is any less sincere than your "no" needlessly, and I believe entirely inaccurately, belittles the debate.

Just as a general observation.


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 1, 2015 at 12:47:08 pm

Many Advocates here, it seems.

BtW: It wasn´t "Adobe" that brought us all the Apps you named.
They only developed a very, very small part of all this. Most was taken (bought) from others.
(Wonder, what all these Apps would be today, if Adobe never bought them).
And threw away a lot of Apps we (espec. I) liked.
Talking about, how glorious they are - compared to the Beatles, Hm…The Beatles ever covered other Bands?
(Btw: Stock climbing? Software Stocks have a good period at this times. AVID: More than 140% Plus through the last yr. Apple: 45%. But those companies, who can´t sell their mature products without treating their customers by renting (ONLY) models, don´t profit of that fact like the innovation leaders. And: Mainstream of Adobe jumbed on the cloud? Hu? There were (are) nearly 13 Million CS users versus 4 Mil. CC users. And there are still people (30% of Adobes Creative Software Income) buying a 3 yrs old (!!), fair software license… What´s the definition of "Mainstream"?)


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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 2, 2015 at 3:49:49 am
Last Edited By Chris Pettit on Jun 2, 2015 at 3:52:30 am

[Tim Wilson] "We refer to a debate here because there's an actual debate -- to the extent that the "compelling enough to pay for" folks have found it worth the effort to stick around here. There have been fewer and fewer over time because the mainstream of Adobe's customers have continued to move in the "yes" direction, and the overwhelming majority of the COW's Adobe-oriented traffic -- which is truly massive, hundreds of thousands of people a month -- has never seen fit to take up the debate at all."

Tim: are you at all concerned about being perceived as biased to the benefit of your sponsor and benefactor Adobe at the expense of your other readers? I’ve read, and benefited from, your perspective over time and avoided this kind of comment in the past out of respect for your vast knowledge and experience, and the appreciation I have for this forum and for the Cow in general. But you seem to have completely abandoned any semblance of journalistic independence when it comes to this discussion regarding a major sponsor of your website, so I have to be honest, how can you claim at this point to be an independent facilitator of “debate” regarding this issue?

In terms of the people who have not taken up the debate, I know plenty of them. They don't debate. They also don't subscribe, at least in many cases. I refer to Raniers comments regarding numbers, they are real. If everyone in the world loved Adobe's subscription model, then Adobe wouldn't need to advertise quite so intently with your website don’t you agree? Every website I go to right now is plagued with Creative Cloud banners. EVERY freakin site. If it sells itself, they are sure putting a lot of effort into getting people like me to sign up.

I agree that the debate is largely over, at least until, and if, Wall Street decides that making less money per quarter is not such a great idea. But Adobe is a long way from proving that everyone is just fine with subjecting their work to monthly subscriptions in perpetuity.

This forum may have run its course. But the overall issue is far from over. That is demonstrated by the numbers comparison the Ranier mentioned.


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 2, 2015 at 9:38:31 am
Last Edited By Mads Nybo Jørgensen on Jun 2, 2015 at 9:43:21 am

Hey Chris,

[Chris Pettit] "But you seem to have completely abandoned any semblance of journalistic independence when it comes to this discussion regarding a major sponsor of your website, so I have to be honest, how can you claim at this point to be an independent facilitator of “debate” regarding this issue?"

I salute you!

There was a time, before Tim started working his magic, at the COW, and before that at WWUG; that if you challenged the integrity of the hard working people who keep the COW alive and independent, that you would find the forum closed, and the "perpetrator" disappeared - most likely dumped in the nearest harbor with a combined harvester wrapped around the neck for ballast... You are brave man ;-)

Hopefully Tim won't be offended. If anything, like other great editorial staff at places like Wall Street Journal, New York Times, CNN, Businessweek, Financial Times, UK Sunday Times and many others: Tim will hopefully recognize that when the critics have no other argument to present; they go for that personal attack of being in the pockets of the advertisers. And that this allegation on its own, is the first step towards editorial nirvana.

As I am writing this post, there are not a single Adobe advert in sight on this page. Avid, Blackmagic, Quantel, Imagineer Systems - to mention a few is displayed. But no Adobe.
So even without the advertising of Adobe on this forum and the COW in general, I hope that Tim and the masters of the COW will continue to keep this forum alive.

Chris, you have to ask yourself this: If Adobe was as powerful in matters of the COW as you claim them to be, would this forum not have been closed a long time ago?

By all means, there have been plenty false allegations and claims of doom painted by person(s) who have never even tried the Adobe CC. And let alone are able to find accurate factual information to back up their arguments with. So with all of that; how can it be if Adobe is in charge of the COW's independence, that we are still here talking?

I've said it before: As much as I don't agree with some of the controversial arguments that have appeared here, this forum is helping to remind Adobe that they always need to do better in order to stay as one of the top suppliers to the creative industries.

[Chris Pettit] "But the overall issue is far from over. That is demonstrated by the numbers comparison the Ranier mentioned."

Only in a recent thread was Rainer's numbers picked apart. Why he keeps on publishing them, I do not know. But the fact is that he has not been able to present recent numbers directly from Adobe.

There are two sides of the argument of 12 Million CS v 4 Million CC customers.

The first is that of the 12 Million, not all are CS6 customers - in effect, they are not returning business and should be subtracted in a like-for-like comparison. Nevertheless, of the 12 Million CS, we do not know how many are owners of single stand alone packages, and how many have the Master suite. Neither do we know how many have converted to CC. So if someone who owned PPro, Flash and InDesign converted to one CC package, then you will only need 4 Million CC users to have converted most of them from the original 12 Million CS users.

The other side to that argument is that we do not know how many subscribers have taken the full CC package. Or if the numbers presented in the 4 Million includes other Adobe Cloud packages.

Setting those 12 Million alleged missing customers aside for a minute: What we do know for a fact is that Adobe in the last 4 stated quarters have continued to grow their revenue, which will if the trend continues in the current financial year, pass their all-time high. Although Rainer would like us to believe so, I do not think that the current rise in revenue is due to a sudden demand for old and out-of-date CS6 software...

BTW, for the record: I am for hire: But neither Adobe, nor the COW, nor any of their associates have paid me or offered me payment to voice my opinions. I am just an out-of-date teenager seeking to participate in the debate of "Cloud, or Cloud not to be" :-)

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 2, 2015 at 12:37:52 pm
Last Edited By Rainer Schubert on Jun 2, 2015 at 12:49:03 pm

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "who have never even tried the Adobe CC"

Mads,

If I decide to buy a vehicle, I wouldn´t give a testdrive to an Porsche, if I need an Truck.
The (main) problem isn´t the quality of the CC Apps.
The problem is the distribution.
I don´t have to test, how subscription works (...do they really take the 50 bugs a month from my bank-account?).
Most of posters here don´t have problems with the quality of Adobes Apps.
Most of them are concerned that they "can´t have it" because of the Subscription ONLY.
Main concerns belongs to the "take all or nothing" and that you loose access to the Apps (and therefore the full access to many of your files) after sub.
That´s nothing, that must have been "tested", or?
You have to accept, that there are users (like me), who will never "rent" software (and one can say "their own files" after subscription).
That´s the dealkiller - not the applications features.

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "Although Rainer would like us to believe so, I do not think that the current rise in revenue is due to a sudden demand for old and out-of-date CS6 software"

Where did I say that? I posted a related fact long time ago. Till Q1 / 14 Adobe made more Income with Perpetual licenses than with the Cloud (That´s a fact given by Adobe itself - Investor Handout Q1/2014. And still today 30% of (Creative) income is based on perpetual licenses (actual invester handout june, 2015 (Adobe.com/Investors/Investor Handout June 15/Page 9). I actually didn´t say and wouldn´t like to make anyone belive, that there is anything that can be the cause of Adobes current rise.


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 2, 2015 at 12:47:01 pm

Hey Rainer,

[Rainer Schubert] "That´s the dealkiller - not the applications features."

That is your point, and I respect you for it. No-one can force you in to a subscription, when you want to be a life-time owner.

However, I am concerned that you have chosen not to address the objectivity and factual correctness of the numbers that you gave out in your previous post, which Chris referred to, and I gave comments on in relation to that one line you decided to quote me out of context on.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 2, 2015 at 1:09:54 pm
Last Edited By Rainer Schubert on Jun 2, 2015 at 1:31:57 pm

Mads,

I just corrected my previous post a bit and:
I have given all the Numbers in previous posts, correct.
And I have also given, where I took them from Adobes own website.
No problems or any reason to hide these facts:

Again:

Taken from Adobes Investors Handout Q1/2014:
Q1 2014 was the first time, Adobe made more creative income with CC than with CS.

Taken from Adobes Investor Handout May 2013:
Total Suites CS 3-6: 8.4 Millions (4.1 of them CS 6)
Total Point Products CS 3-6: 4.4 (1.5 of them CS 6)
(That´s 2 yrs ago and since that time a lot of perpetual licenses were sold. Adobe isn´t giving actual numbers)
P.S.: I found no numbers from Adobe, how many of the CS-Suites are Master Collections.

If they are still not longer available, I have these documents copied, if you are interessted in.
And again: I haven´t said, that Perpetual licenses are the cause for Adobes actual raising.

PS.: We also don´t know, how many of the 4 M CC actual users are Point Product (PS etc.) users. In the past quaters it was between 60-70%

Let´s wait and see, what they have to tell us at next Earnings call at June, 16th & how many years longer this CC is sold with discounts "...only for a short time".


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 2, 2015 at 1:42:07 pm

Hey Rainer,

Thank you.

Stick to the published numbers, much easier to deal with.

My choice of take away from that info:

[Rainer Schubert] "Q1 2014 was the first time, Adobe made more creative income with CC than with CS."

Not unexpectedly.

[Rainer Schubert] "(That´s 2 yrs ago and since that time a lot of perpetual licenses where sold. Adobe isn´t giving actual numbers)"

2 years is a long time. Do keep in mind that Adobe is still selling a number of products under the "perpetual licenses" heading. Just not updating the CS line of products.

[Rainer Schubert] "PS.: We also don´t know, how many of the 4 M CC actual users are Point Product (PS etc.) users. In the past quaters it was between 60-70%"

That I agree with. But nevertheless, an Adobe spending more money on research and development, than physical distribution can only be a good thing. If the subscription model allows them to ramp up improvements, then I'm happy to put money in their pockets.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 2, 2015 at 1:52:11 pm
Last Edited By Rainer Schubert on Jun 2, 2015 at 2:05:30 pm

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "Stick to the published numbers, much easier to deal with. "

I posted that long time ago (thought as a response to one of your posts, but not sure): 8806_bildschirmfoto20150504um17.46.17.jpg.zip
(and don´t know, why you wrote, I wouldn´t have given the source)
https://i1.creativecow.com/u/259662/bildschirmfoto2015-05-04um17.46.17.jpg

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "Adobe is still selling a number of products under the "perpetual licenses" heading"

true. But, I know an agency, who bought ten Master Collections end of last yr ;)

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "Adobe spending more money on research and development"

Now it´s your turn, to give me THESE numbers. I can´t find them.
Also they have only to deliver Downloads now, and my experience with service isn´t glorious at Adobe, the expense of the CC offering is higher than with CS.

And: As Fotolia is also flagged Adobe now, I changed to Shutterstock ;)
I think, that the Image of Adobe not only turned in my eyes.

And, last and least: If you don´t use 12,8 M CS users, it´s more correct to use 13 M CS users (because 12.8 has to be make round to 13 correctly ;)


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 2, 2015 at 2:08:11 pm

Hey Rainer,

[Rainer Schubert] "Now it´s your turn, to give me THESE numbers. I can´t find them."

As per your request:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=ADBE
Period Ending
27 Feb 2015 28 Nov 2014 29 Aug 2014 30 May 2014
Research Development
215,509 213,687 212,049 209,092

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 2, 2015 at 2:16:32 pm
Last Edited By Rainer Schubert on Jun 2, 2015 at 2:18:06 pm

Can´t see a number that´s significant above a regular increase of prices… (3%+/yr), or?
And interesting Net income...


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 2, 2015 at 2:21:01 pm

[Rainer Schubert] "Can´t see a number that´s significant above a regular increase of prices… (3%+/yr), or?"

Well, ehm, maybe it is just me, but I haven't seen an increase in the cost of CC. If anything, the price have dropped in a like-for-like ownership of having all of the various CS versions.

However, as long as Adobe is spending more on Research and Development, rather than less in a Zero interest economy. Then I'm happy :-)

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Rainer Schubert
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 2, 2015 at 3:02:01 pm

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "is spending more on Research and Development"

That was, what I asked for…? There any numbers for that ?
Meanwhile I will have a look on the costs of expense.


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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 2, 2015 at 2:21:58 pm
Last Edited By Chris Pettit on Jun 2, 2015 at 2:23:34 pm

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "As I am writing this post, there are not a single Adobe advert in sight on this page. Avid, Blackmagic, Quantel, Imagineer Systems - to mention a few is displayed. But no Adobe."

Their "last days before discounts end" campaign just ended. You aren't seriously implying that Adobe isn't flooding the internet with adverts are you?

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "There was a time, before Tim started working his magic, at the COW, and before that at WWUG; that if you challenged the integrity of the hard working people who keep the COW alive and independent, that you would find the forum closed, and the "perpetrator" disappeared - most likely dumped in the nearest harbor with a combined harvester wrapped around the neck for ballast... You are brave man ;-)"

I wasn't challenging his personal integrity. I was asking whether its appropriate for the editor of this forum to routinely post strong advocacy for a point of view that benefits a major advertiser, and then expect to remain free from the appearance of bias. I'm sure his opinions are his own and sincere, but IMO the Cows independence in the midst of a serious debate like this is damaged somewhat when the editor takes such strong opinions publicly. And BTW, I wont be offended by your joke regarding having me murdered.

No matter what advocates think of our continued opposition to Adobe's mandatory subscription policy, we are not quietly, secretly subscribing, and we are not just a handful of holdouts. Drop by the CC FB page sometime. Just because they don't post here doesn't mean everybody loves renting software, there continues to be a lot of disgust and anger at how Adobe has treated so many of its long time customers. And of course most of us are working slowly to leave Adobe behind us as well. That should not be celebrated, its frankly sad.

I just think the overall purposefulness of posting opposition has diminished over time because in spite of Adobe's expressed promise to address these issues in some fashion, they went back on their word and refused to. As a result, this particular forum is populated mostly by advocates now. Be in good cheer, unlike us, you have what you want from Adobe. We do not, and probably never will.

I expect my opposition to be marginalized by the myriad of happy advocates not just for CC, but for its being forced on the rest of us. I was just hoping that we could avoid having management be a part of that process.


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 2, 2015 at 2:31:13 pm

[Chris Pettit] "Their "last days before discounts end" campaign just ended. You aren't seriously implying that Adobe isn't flooding the internet with adverts are you?"

Actually, I am. If I look at a drill, Laptop, book etc on Amazon or similar. Because of a thing called cookies, every page I visit following that (including Facebook), carries an advert for that product.

So if you are only visiting pages related to Adobe, that means... guess what: That you will only see adverts for Adobe. So in many cases, any flood of specific advertising is self-inflicted...

That is one explanation - which although intended to be humorous, I will agree with you is not likely to be the full story.

However, from Adobe's point of view, they have promised their investors the sight of 6 million subscribers, and they ain't gonna get that by hanging up a "closed for business" sign on their door.

If anything, we the creatives should be pleased that companies are spending money on creative advertising - as it comes around and gives us more work...

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 11, 2015 at 3:12:58 am

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] "So if you are only visiting pages related to Adobe, that means... guess what: That you will only see adverts for Adobe. So in many cases, any flood of specific advertising is self-inflicted..."

Just now reviewing this thread and read this response.

I spend time on hundreds of sites, most of them related to C4D, Plugins, tutorials that expand my workflow, hardware, Octane and other GPU rendering, Clients sites, WIKI that RE clients offerings, new technologies, Black Magic, Cameras, Quad Copters, New monitors, 4K, trends in the industry, Social Media, Politics, Travel, on and on. Like most people making a living independently in a global workplace, I leverage the internet to acquire information and tools to keep myself and my team competitive.

I get it that powers-that-be are tracking my interests.

But "Self-inflicted" is ridiculous. I've seen adverts on my wife's computer for Adobe and she doesn't give a rats behind.

There is simply nothing regarding my current sad relationship with Adobe that is "self-inflicted".


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 11, 2015 at 11:17:56 am
Last Edited By Mads Nybo Jørgensen on Jun 11, 2015 at 11:19:12 am

Hey Chris,

In all fairness to my previous reply, you were originally the one "complaining" about Adobe advertising their services to you.

[Chris Pettit] "I spend time on hundreds of sites, most of them related to C4D, Plugins, tutorials that expand my workflow, hardware, Octane and other GPU rendering, Clients sites, WIKI that RE clients offerings, new technologies, Black Magic, Cameras, Quad Copters, New monitors, 4K, trends in the industry, Social Media, Politics, Travel, on and on. Like most people making a living independently in a global workplace, I leverage the internet to acquire information and tools to keep myself and my team competitive."

That is very good and the right thing to do. However, I count 12 examples in your list that would be key-words that an Adobe would buy advertising for - and in all fairness to them, they are one of the few brands left in our industry, who can and is willing to throw Dollars at large scale marketing initiatives.

Related to your line "I leverage the internet to acquire information and tools to keep myself and my team competitive." May I ask: Why would would you not put Adobe CC towards the top of that list of tools for your team to have, as team work is one of the essential points of using CC?
Added to that, most of the other items mentioned in your list are in work-flow and usability working really well with CC - so the connection is already there.

Back on track:

[Chris Pettit] "But "Self-inflicted" is ridiculous. I've seen adverts on my wife's computer for Adobe and she doesn't give a rats behind.

There is simply nothing regarding my current sad relationship with Adobe that is "self-inflicted"."


As long as you keep on coming back to Adobe CC forums and others, and maybe your wife taking an interest in your online activities, you will be keeping on seeing those adverts - except on this forum.

I recently had a massive falling out with Humax non-help/non-support staff. Did a lot of research on ratings and comments from retailer and Amazon. Although I got a full refund 10 months after purchase, my Facebook page and others are convinced that I would buy that piece of junk, which I won't as it is #notfitforpurpose. So I can identify with your frustrations about being reminded of a product that you'll never want to buy.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 2, 2015 at 2:51:15 pm

[Chris Pettit] "BTW, I wont be offended by your joke regarding having me murdered."

Sorry, missed that line. NO! I was not suggesting that you, or anyone else, should be murdered - quite to the contrary, I was speaking about historical events of which I have got no influence on.

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Steve Connor
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 3, 2015 at 6:11:44 pm

[Chris Pettit] "I wasn't challenging his personal integrity. I was asking whether its appropriate for the editor of this forum to routinely post strong advocacy for a point of view that benefits a major advertiser, and then expect to remain free from the appearance of bias"

Tim's opinion is as valid as every single other person here on the COW and as far as I can see you're the only person suggesting any appearance of bias


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Tim Wilson
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 3, 2015 at 12:55:34 am

I'll address this to everyone because that's how it's intended.

I've never claimed objectivity when I post without my official sig. Quite the contrary.

I've had many occasions to thank people in the COW for the latitude to speak my mind without people conflating my views in personal posts with the COW'S official positions. I had hoped that that was the case again.

For the record, the COW typically takes no positions on ANYTHING beyond guidelines for forum decorum and general civility. I think that the very existence of this forum establishes that.

As an admin, I've not deleted or even edited a word of a single post without speaking directly with the poster offline, and to the best of my recollection, we'd have to go back a very long way to find the last time my change stood.

That is, on the most recent occasion of an administrative action, roughly a year ago, in speaking with the OP I was persuaded that I was in the wrong. I apologized and returned the post to its previous state. Exactly the reason I actively avoid touching anything unless a post had been tagged by multiple members as abusive.

And even THAT is never more than a couple of times a year across 250 forums.

In all, I think our record for actively fostering dissent is unimpeachable.

The thing is, I've been in this business since 1976. Long before many (most?) of the people in the COW were born. Certainly before Adobe, Apple, Avid and Microsoft. Really, pretty much anyone but HP and the camera guys.

As Mads points out, my role in the COW's predecessor community was strictly that of a video business owner with my family's life savings on the line.

The combination of nearly 40 years of experience in a wide range of this business, a career whose heart was spent risking my own money, and, yes, my personal tendency toward loud opinion-mongering, means that I enjoy posting in the Debate forums. The only other forum I regularly post in is the TV and Movie Appreciation forum... where we regularly debate. I like debating.

But I've tried to consistently make clear my position that YOU are the ONLY expert on YOU, and for once in my life I'll avoid opining on things that are none of my business. You day you don't like it? You don't like it. You say it doesn't work for your business? It doesn't work for your business. I've made many posts firmly stating this.

I've said *repeatedly* that I'm not trying to change anyone's mind, other than, in this case, the notion that there's any agenda on my mind than the full contact banter we regularly engage in here.

I'm going to be a sad puppy if you think I shouldn't keep freely speaking for myself in the forums I post in most often. Regardless, I will vigorously disagree that anything about the COW is failing to meet the highest standard for free civilized speech.

Not that I mind getting personally called out if you feel the need. I'm not saying I've never been wrong in my various roles here. I even gave you a previously private example.

But I hope that my overly long reminder of how much of this road we've gone down together, side by side as professional peers, will also serve as a reminder of my general tendency toward integrity, even if I sometimes admittedly fall short of the mark.

So unless there's a consensus that I shouldn't, I'm going to keep yapping whenever I have time (far too little for my liking). I'm also going to largely let my record, and the COW's record, of support for hammers and tongs, and pitchforks and torches, bear their own witness.

I'll bow out of this thread for now, and invite any and everyone else to have the last word.

As always, I also heartily invite anyone to drop me a line to discuss this or anything else. I don't hear from any of you often enough, and look forward to it.


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Chris Pettit
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 3, 2015 at 1:41:16 am

[Tim Wilson] "So unless there's a consensus that I shouldn't, I'm going to keep yapping whenever I have time (far too little for my liking). I'm also going to largely let my record, and the COW's record, of support for hammers and tongs, and pitchforks and torches, bear their own witness."

There is no such consensus regarding your participation, in fact, when I discussed the issue months ago (privately) with a number of people on my side of the fence, they disagreed with my interpretation of your participation.

I expressed my personal point of view, and it was not my intention to try and "reverse censor" your participation, just to make an observation that I felt was worthy of airing. I wish you well


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David Mathis
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 3, 2015 at 5:00:19 pm
Last Edited By David Mathis on Jun 3, 2015 at 5:02:00 pm

Thank you Tim for posting as always and for reaching out. Now for a few thoughts of my own, not going to call anyone out, my promise.

1. Ads on the COW are of important value. It gives me a chance to see what is new, to give me a sense of options and products I have not considered before. Things such as storage or other equipment. I feel the ads add to the experience not detract from them.

2. Adobe has made a business decision, one that not everyone, including myself, will agree with. Feel free to disagree but please do so with respect. Criticism can be constructive, productive but also destructive.

3. While subscription only is not for me, I do respect those who go rental only. I feel neither the need to scold them for going rental only nor will I do so. Some benefit from renting, others do not. I respect the choice someone else will make, it is their business and they have the right to do what is in their best interest but keep their customer base in mind.

4. As much as I dislike what Adobe has done, they had to do what they felt was best. I do not feel cheated or deceived, it is just a business model. This is the path they chose and I respect it. For now, renting is not in my best interest.

Off my soap box now and off to lunch. Carry on the debate!


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Billy Payn
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 1, 2015 at 9:36:42 pm

Not sure there isn't a ventriloquist in the room?
Sorry, call it what you like, it's rental and the Beatles albums I have or buy today I can listen to as often as I like as long as I like and then pass them on of I choose.
As for downloading a trial, No thanks Id rather put the wrong fuel in the van. If I did that I fear Id have occasion to deal with Adobe customer 'services' then have to reinstall windows.
'kiddy sandbox'? (me thinks he doth protest too much)
I own my stuff, that's the way I like it. (I know it's only a licence, but I own the licence ) don't owe any one and choose what I rent. ..ok subscribe to. I'm cool with that. Yes a little annoyed at Adobe but no big deal, I'm still editing and making stuff. So yes maybe lost out a little, so have this company though, a long time - ok maybe only upgrading every other iteration type customer, still, good will. Gone.
Btw 1000 improvements? missing them.



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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 1, 2015 at 9:46:28 pm

A "broken record" comes to mind.

However, I am quite happy to be called the puppeteer (rather than Devil's Advocate), although I am not sure you want to be the "dummy" in our double act of opposites...? ;-)

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 12, 2015 at 4:33:04 am

Doesn't it, Mads?

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.1, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1 TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-680 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD


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Mads Nybo Jørgensen
Re: Adobe just past $80 a share - highest ever.
on Jun 12, 2015 at 5:32:21 am

[Jim Wiseman] "Doesn't it, Mads?"

Yes it does, when it comes to repeating the same old without bringing any facts or new information to the table.

But as this thread is about the rising fortunes of Adobe, I'm going to press the "Skip to Next Song" button ;-)

All the Best
Mads

@madsvid, London, UK
Check out my other hangouts:
Twitter: @madsvid
http://mads-thinkingoutloud.blogspot.co.uk


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