FORUMS: list search recent posts

You're About To Abandoned !!!

COW Forums : Videoguys.com Tech Talk

<< PREVIOUS   •   VIEW ALL   •   PRINT   •   NEXT >>
ProDVD_Authoring
You're About To Abandoned !!!
on Feb 3, 2003 at 5:37:32 pm

Hi Burners:
Look out ! It's coming ! Blue lazer is coming and guess what's going to happen ? All our stuff will be just one more pile of orphaned technological junk. Of course, they'll milk us to the hilt and play down blue lazer like it doesn't even exist, then, suddenly, it will be as though red lazer never existed ! Just like it is now with that old, spent technology once referred to as DVD R for "Authoring." The first blue lazer burner will be introduced by industry leader Pioneer, of course, which will cost around $17,000.00 ! Then they'll introduce one which costs about $5,400.00 ! Wow ! That's cheap ! Then, before you know it, they'll totally undermine us business types with a $500.00 blue lazer and so on....and so on...and so on....!!!

Mark


Return to posts index

owen
Re: You're About To Abandoned !!!
by
on Feb 3, 2003 at 5:55:01 pm

Isn't Capitalism fun?

Edward Owen - Novice


Return to posts index

Gary Bettan
Re: You're About To Abandoned !!!
on Feb 3, 2003 at 7:26:47 pm

Blue Lazer is "old news". It's coming eventually, and there is already a Blue Lazer format war brewing. As it stands right now todays DVD players will not play Blue Lazer disks. So we're gonna need to replace those as well.

My advice - forget about Blue Lazer. When it happens, it happens. Whatever the price will be at that time will be out of yours and my control. And whatever the initial price is, it will drop dramatically over the first couple of years. heck, the A03 was originally priced at "under $1,000". We are now a third of that, with much better products!!

Folks, HD is coming as well. We are on the brink of a technological upheaval. What does that mean for you? Very little. The burners available today work great and just keep getting cheaper. I have no idea where the bottom is.

What I can tell you is that we are on the doorstep of a monumental change for those of us in the content creation business. Our customers want their video on DVD and they are still willing to pay a premium for it. If you are a hobbiest you have never before had so many excellent choice for your video ediitng and your delivery method. VHS, DV, DVD, the web - it's all here and it's affordable.

This is a GREAT time to be a digital videographer!!!

Gary

The Electronic Mailbox 800 323-2325
We Are The Desk Top Video Editing & Production Experts

All DTV purchases come with our exclusive 30 day customer assurance program and FREE Tech Support


Return to posts index


WTS
Re: You're About To Abandoned !!!
by
on Feb 3, 2003 at 9:23:42 pm

I agree Gary--don't wait for the next train, get on now and start having fun and profit. A lot has to happen before we see much penetration of this new technology. This is a link to another post I had on this topic some time back at the Canopus forum (with an additional link to definitions and explanations of this technology):

http://forum.canopus.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=CanopusStudio&Numb...

Jim


Return to posts index

Kenneth Daves
Re: You're About To Abandoned !!!
on Feb 3, 2003 at 9:26:02 pm

Yes, and so is having the freedom to practice it.


Return to posts index

ProDVD_Authoring
Re: You're About To Abandoned !!!
on Feb 4, 2003 at 5:44:20 am

Hi Gary:
You wrote:
"What I can tell you is that we are on the doorstep of a monumental change for those of us in the content creation business."

.....What I can tell you is that we are on the doorstep of monumental expense and I am in the content creation business. It is precisely for this reason that folks like us cannot sit around and wait for cheaper and cheaper blue lazer products to eventually come around while our nearest competitor caughs up the 17 Grand and corners our market !

You wrote:

"Our customers want their video on DVD and they are still willing to pay a premium for it."

.....I wish I had your customers ! In my market our clients will abandon us if they can get it even $0.50 cheaper than what we do it for. These great manufacturors that we keep going on about will put us through the same blue lazer format wars just like they did with red lazer DVD and they won't think twice about it either. And I will resent them for it just like I already do !Mad

Respectfully,

Mark


Return to posts index


ProDVD_Authoring
Re: You're About To Abandoned !!!
on Feb 4, 2003 at 5:59:27 am

Hi Jim:
I respectfully disagree. There's a saying that goes - "Once bitten, twice shy..." My council is to sit back and watch and wait. Look...DON'T LEAP. You see, they'll get you with the m e d i a . It is the DVD R recording media that will get dropped by manufacturors. If not by manufacturors, then the resellers will either impose minumum quotas on orders or will drop many brands altogether. It should be well pointed out that DVD R (G) recording type burners do not have anywhere near the mass retail market penetration that CDR has been able to achieve!! This is a demonstrable fact. What do you think is going to happen if blue lazer comes out as fast as the manufacturors are suggesting ?
You know what will happen. It's just common sense. Possible marketfragmentation would not a good thing. We all will loose if blue lazer happens too fast.
Also, is it just my imagination, or is the recordable DVD manufacturors trying to force an extra shortened product cycle here ?

Mark


Return to posts index

Gary Bettan
Re: You're About To Abandoned !!!
on Feb 4, 2003 at 12:25:35 pm

Mark,
You've got a lot of emotion in your statements. It is very clear that you care deeply about your business and that you feel threatened by the forthcoming blue laser technology. Take a depp breath and step back. These things simply do not happen as fast as you think. Especially when it will require major upgrades/ replacement on the end user level.

Sitting on the sideline and waiting for the 'new' technology to take hold is just a bad business decision. I've seen it too many times. Hundreds of small production shops got creamed because they could not and would not accept the DV format. Before they knew what hit them a bunch of smaller operators on much lower budgets were eating away at their business. They shot on DV and edited using low cost DV NLE solutions.

Affordable DVD authoring is here today. If your customer want DVD then give it to them. Give them the best damn DVDs they've ever seen.

I'm confused by the contradiction in your points. The first point is that competition will pay top dollar for a Blue Laser and use these drives to corner your market. the second is that your customer will not pay any premium for your services. If your market won't support a .50 premium, then no one can recover the large cost of early adoption for Blue Laser. My guess is that both these points are gut reactions, and the reality is much less extreme.

I don't know what exactly your business model is, and a public forum sure isn't the place for you to reveal it. That said, I do understand how frustrating format wars and looming technology can be. Here is my simple advise ( I'm sure you know it already, but I'm putting it out here for everyone)-

Use a 6 - 12 month Return On Investment for any major new purchases. No complex calculations here, just simple math. Lets say you want to get our ReelDVD & DVR-A05 burner bundle for $999.95. Make sure you can sell enough DVDs in the first year to cover the $1,000. If you will sell the DVDs for $29.95 each and you figure a $10 profit per unit, you need to sell 100 to make back your initial investment. If you plan on selling 10 DVDs a month, you recoup your investment in 10 months. If you sell 20 a month it takes only 5 months.

If you are not in the business of selling your content directly, but get paid by the job for creating it, the formula changes, but it is still the same theory. If you can get an extra $100 per job profit for DVD authoring, you need to book only 10 jobs to recover your investment. At 2 jobs per month you are at 5 months for your ROI.

What gets much harder is finding your entry point for the blue laser. Suppose they initially cost $5,000. Using the same math above you're looking at a 2-3 year ROI. That's not very good. However, if your market demands it, then the economics change - and you should be able to get a premium for offering it. So perhaps initially you'll be able to make $30,40 or even $50 more for your Blue Laser DVDs. Or get an extra couple hundred for each job. Now the ROI is back under a year!

I'm not trying to give an economics lesson here, and I'm sorry for getting on the soap box. I just think that the rules of supply and demand always take hold. If your customers demand blue laser, then those in your market who supply it will reap the rewards. On the flip side investing too early and trying to supply blue laser DVDs that your customers do not demand and will not pay a premium for is not going to pay off.

We will keep you guys posted as we learn more about all the new technologies emerging in our industry. And I'm sure that as time goes on, you guys will also give us heads-up on new stuff you hear about. I belong to a very nice list serve on DVD. It is mainly professionals in the DVD industry, but more and more of consumer and prosumers are finding it. It's called the DVDList and you can find a link to it on our DVD resources page http://www.videoguys.com/DVDresources.html


Gary



The Electronic Mailbox 800 323-2325
We Are The Desk Top Video Editing & Production Experts

All DTV purchases come with our exclusive 30 day customer assurance program and FREE Tech Support


Return to posts index

ProDVD_Authoring
Re: You're About To Abandoned !!!
on Feb 4, 2003 at 3:57:25 pm

Hi Gary:
To begin with there are several points you make which are at variance with both my market model and my local business market. I will deal with each point you make in a point by point way in an attempt to clarify exactly where I'm coming from and what I'm trying to say.

Point 1. You wrote: "You have a lot of emotion in your statements."

.....I didn't realize this was an issue. Sorry.

Point 2. You wrote: "It is very clear that you care deeply about your business and that you feel threatened by the forthcoming blue laser technology."

......Yes, we are committed to offering the best quality service at the most competetive prices possible to serve our clients needs. Good service at a fair price is our motto.
......No, we don't feel threatened by "blue lazer," rather, we feel threatened by the rash and incomprehensible marketing strategies by major companies like Pioneer who have caused our small company to loose a considerable amount of money by buying into a product which we were promised would be adequately supported, but which was not in our market.
......This is not to say that our company is in trouble. I do not want to leave you with that impression as it is not accurate. We have many return clients and we are doing well enough.

Point 3. You wrote: "These things simply do not happen as fast as you think. Especially when it will require major upgrades/ replacement on the end user level."

.......I disagree. They are happening as fast in my market as I am saying and I consider the ROI cycles caused by shorter and shorter product cycles are becoming unreasonable. The numbers in our market are simply not the same as in yours. I'm not saying blue lazer is already here now, but companies are poised to introduce it at the end of this year. Are you actually suggesting that so soon an introduction is reasonable ?

Point 4. You wrote: "Hundreds of small production shops got creamed because they could not and would not accept the DV format. Before they knew what hit them a bunch of smaller operators on much lower budgets were eating away at their business."

.......This is a false argument in my opinion. DV was never as expensive as DVD R was when it was first introduced. We immediately saw the quality, low price and importance of DV and we immediately purchased the Canon XL1s as soon as it became available and we are about to purchase Avid express DV 3.5 along with a ProTools audio sweetening station. We think your Avid Xpress package is great value for the money BTW :-)

We currently use a DPS product for our NLE with a transcoder and we are quite pleased with the quality we get. The example you make here is better expressed with what happened to us with the introduction of inexpensive DVD R (G). Suddenly, our nearest competitor was 15 years old and he was willing to "give away" his services for little money and this is what undermined approximately 1/3 of our market. Not DV.

Point 5. You wrote: "Affordable DVD authoring is here today. If your customer want DVD then give it to them. Give them the best damn DVDs they've ever seen."

......Thanks for the tip.

Point 6. You wrote: " I'm confused by the contradiction in your points. The first point is that competition will pay top dollar for a Blue Laser and use these drives to corner your market."

......What contradiction ? My competition will purchase the blue lazer right away and we will be forced to do the same so that he will not steal market share away from us. But we should be clear here and say we do not blame our competition for doing what they do. This is only good business. Will I blame my competition for making a sound business decision ? Certainly not. Will I blame the recordable DVD industry for forcing too many new formats down our throats too darn fast ? ABSOLUTELY !!

Point 7. You wrote: "the second is that your customer will not pay any premium for your services. If your market won't support a .50 premium, then no one can recover the large cost of early adoption for Blue Laser."

.........The customers will not pay any more than they have to. I won't either. If my client can get the same service at a cheaper price than what I can offer it to him for and still make a profit, then I lose that customer. The economics are plain and simple here. My market is very "cut throat" in my city and we don't have the kind of numbers you are suggesting which could support your business model. There is a tendancy to lose market share just as soon as the price of equipment drops below a certain threshold, so those production companies then bring those goods and services "in house."
.........In your area, I think the local clients and film makers have a definite traditional understanding of going to the "specialty post house." This business model is rapidly disappearing in my market. We must diversify and jump through hoops and offer new and creative services delivered in new and creative ways to keep the ball rolling. One can recover the large cost of blue lazer if product cycle times is not too short. 6 months ROI is a little too optimistic if your competitor caughs up $17,000.00 for the latest and greatest and your clients decide they want the latest and greatest. DVD R was really a "cultivated" market. It was never a "demanded" one.
.........We make good money with our table top DVD burner because--
A) It's quick.(Time is money)
B) General recording media is now cheap.
C) We offer a quality service.
D) It's cheaper than any other competitor.
E) The table top investment was dirt cheap.

Point 8. You wrote: "I just think that the rules of supply and demand always take hold. If your customers demand blue laser, then those in your market who supply it will reap the rewards."

......People buy what's sold to them. Several market studies have proven that. Demand can be cultivated and to a certain extent it can be created. 90% of my clients want stuff to be still delivered on VHS and S-VHS. VHS is still way popular among my institutional clients. We're selling them on DVD, but its a hard sell. Many are actually adopting miniDV.
.....I appreciate your web site and your specialty services. You guys spend the time to educate your clientele instead of carefully confusing them and I appreciate this very much. Please excuse my industry cynicism, but I've seen it all and heard it all in this business over the past twenty years or so that I've been in it.

Mark




Return to posts index


Gary Bettan
Re: You're About To Abandoned !!!
on Feb 4, 2003 at 4:40:58 pm

Mark,
Thanx for sharing your insights and thanx even more for letting everyone get a peak into your business. It is very generous of you to share that info and your thoughts.

I am sympathetic to you and here is what I have from Pioneer on the subject. Initially Blue Lasers will be very expensive, and they will not be aimed at the consumer video market. They plan on going after the broadcast industry with HD. They see that HD will require much more space per hour. They will require an expensive player as well. On the consumer side they see it following HD into the home theatre. They feel it will take a couple of years after introduction before Blue Ray disks show up in your local Block Buster Rental store. (And that is based on the HD faucet being turned on. If HD faulters - Blue Ray will be slower to reach our market.) At that time they also see the burners becoming more affordable - but still much more expensive then DVD-R burners.

Gary

The Electronic Mailbox 800 323-2325
We Are The Desk Top Video Editing & Production Experts

All DTV purchases come with our exclusive 30 day customer assurance program and FREE Tech Support


Return to posts index

ProDVD_Authoring
Re: You're About To Abandoned !!!
on Feb 4, 2003 at 5:50:35 pm

Hi Gary:
Hi Gary. Thank you kindly, for the heads up on the blue lazer introduction shedual. I kind of thought Pioneer would do the same thing as it did initially with the introduction of DVD R, that is to hit us professional content creators with high prices to recover their R & D, then eventually undermine us with ultra cheap blue lazer burners for consumers shortly after. But the HD thing is a wild card ! Actually, the cable and broadcast television networks are in the driver's seat with this one.
They've got huge sums of money invested in all of their SD broadcast VTR's and transmission systems and cable systems. If the Japanese consumer electronics manufacturors like Pioneer and Hitachi and Panasonic and others fail to introduce these true HD television sets at reasonable prices, then we will NOT see them adopted by end users. Again, this is a market which must be "cultivated" in a certain way. I think it is quite do -able if they get the introductory price point right. However, this is a big if. I suspect CRT tube HD TV's will be out in favor of some new hybrid rear projection technology in order to get the cost of manufacturing down.
Perhaps a sort of all format ready TV with a DVD recorder built in to the box and a hard drive ? I'm not too worried, since we've heavily diversified and DVD represents only about 25% of our business. We'd like to see our DVD authoring business expand and we're slowly getting there by carefully listening to our cutomers.
We're sincerely excited by the open ended potential of DVD and what it can bring to the world of promotional video and our underground digi-guerilla film cummunity in our market. (This group is quite large actually.)

Mark


Return to posts index

WTS
Re: You're About To Abandoned !!!
by
on Feb 4, 2003 at 8:47:09 pm

Mark,

I think if you would have actually gone to the link I posted, as well as the additional link provided there, you would have a better understanding of my position. I posted that info some time ago, and rather than regurgitate it here, I posted a link. Many of the points that Gary mentions below are echoed in that post. The blue laser technology is (at least what it's first uses are projected for) geared for putting 2 hours of HD content on a disc, which apparently requires somewhere in the neighborhood of 27 gig's. This technology to 'take' off requires far more than simply launching the new format AND media, but an entire infrastructure of players that can handle these discs AND TV's that can take advantage of the higher quality signal. Penetration of HD tv's was to be much farther along at this point in time than it actually is. The FCC mandated that stations needed to start offering at least a HD broadcast alternative by a certain date (sorry, I can't remember exactly when at the moment)--yet this has yet to become mainstream, or come even close to competing with non-HD alternatives. Once recordable dvd's became available at the consumer/prosumer level--much of the infrastructure (in this case dvd players only, the tv's were already there) was in place. Yet even this situation has had it's road bumps, with many of the older set top players not accepting recordable media. I think this year will mark a transition where most players will play all sorts of recordable media, especially the DVD-R/RW format which is supported by the dvd consortium. It's the only type of recordable media that can 'officially' display the dvd logo. The more players that support the format, the better it will be in driving the cost of burners and media down even further. Now is a great time to get your feet wet with this exciting technolgy. The burners are under $300, authoring applications are cropping up here and there, and the media is cheap. When the blue laser stuff comes out, it will be very expensive and I am sure the first adopters of this technology are going to pay a premium and watch hopelessly as the prices plummet with time. I hope that it will not only support HD type material, but good old DV quality mpeg2 so I can fit several hours on a single disc, and not just 2.

Jim


Return to posts index


treetsux
backwards compatible?
on Feb 18, 2003 at 12:03:40 am

i know its hard to be 100% sure about this...but here goes.
i know that red laser players will not be able to read blue laser material, but will blue laser players be able to play red laser material? it worries me to think that with the way dvd's caught on in past couple years that consumers will once again be left with lots of media sitting in a box without a player for it.


Return to posts index

<< PREVIOUS   •   VIEW ALL   •   PRINT   •   NEXT >>
© 2017 CreativeCOW.net All Rights Reserved
[TOP]