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Oliver Peters
Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 8, 2017 at 11:24:19 pm

A video from our annual meeting this week, if you have about 90 minutes to kill ☺







- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Tim Wilson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 9, 2017 at 4:34:31 am

[Oliver Peters] "A video from our annual meeting this week, if you have about 90 minutes to kill ☺"

That's Bob Zelin in the thumbnail, so the operative word is definitely "kill" -- as in, he might kill you if you don't watch! 😅

Thanks for sharing this! I'll check it out! Please don't hurt me!


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andy patterson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 9, 2017 at 5:42:52 am

At 17:30 Bob Zelin basically said the exact same thing I have said many times but I get dissed for saying it. Will Bob get dissed for saying it or be revered as a genius with tremendous insight?

FCPX and DR are getting less expensive. Almost free as stated by Bob himself as compared to the prices of the past. While $49.99 for the Creative Cloud might seem like a good deal today in another two years it might seem expensive compared to the competition. I stated that in another thread and Bob implied it in this video. Having said that Lightroom and Photoshop are kind of the industry standard for photo editing but they are bundled together for $9.99. Adobe owns the photography market so they really don't need to cut any deals for those two programs. On the other hand the video editing market is very very competitive right now as Bob stated in the video but you don't see Premiere Pro, AE and Audition bundled for $9.99. Will Audition become part of Premiere Pro like Fairlight is part of DR? Who knows? I think Adobe is going to have to pick up the pace on their updates and also make alterations to the CC. Obviously I am not the only who sees the competition as a threat to Adobe's CC paradigm. I think BMD dropped the price of DR to compete against Avid, CC and FCPX but who knows for sure? I think DR was revamped because BMD really wants to gain market share for DR since AV hardware is becoming obsolete as stated in this video.

On a side note I still use my Intensity Shuttle when editing interlaced video and for client previews. For $199.99 it was well worth the money but I doubt I will ever need to buy another AV I/O devices again. BMD did a good job with the Intensity Shuttle in my opinion. Having said that I may soon become a paying customer of DR 14.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 9, 2017 at 5:02:22 pm

[andy patterson] "At 17:30 Bob Zelin basically said the exact same thing I have said many times but I get dissed for saying it. Will Bob get dissed for saying it or be revered as a genius with tremendous insight? "

Disagreeing isn't dissing. Of course all companies have to find ways to keep competitive, but (again) I think value weighs more than price alone. FCP X has been $299 for how long? Adobe CC has been $49.99 for how long? A nearly fully functioning version of DR has been free for how long? The big drops in price (and I mean compared to 15-20yrs ago) and opening up of hardware means that it's no long an either/or choice. It's very affordable for people to have access to multiple NLEs if they choose (even more affordable if you just need a short term rental from Adobe or Avid). For example, I currently have copies of X, Adobe CC, DR (paid version) and MC (and still FCP 7 just in case) and that wouldn't have been affordable 15 years ago. Yet now, at last in my experience, it's fairly common for people to have multiple NLEs installed on their system (which is mostly like an off the shelf Mac or PC).

With regards to MC First, Avid has gone the free NLE route before (as well as making other down market versions) and it never worked out well for them. Maybe it will be different this time, maybe not, but MC First certainly isn't any competition for free DR. On a related note, anyone keeping track of how well ProTools First is doing?


[andy patterson] "Having said that Lightroom and Photoshop are kind of the industry standard for photo editing but they are bundled together for $9.99. "

This is my take on that, when Adobe first offered the $9.99 bundle Apple's Aperture was a still serious competitor to Lightroom and given the extreme ire over going CC only I think Adobe was worried they'd lose a huge part of their base to Aperture and a 'good enough' Photoshop replacement like Pixelmator. The rest of the suite didn't really have competition like that which is why the photo bundle is a one-off thing (at least for now). Sure, PPro has competition, but what about After Effects? And how many editors need After Effects? If an editor already pays the $49.99 to get After Effects, doesn't it seem likely that they'll give PPro a shot since it's included in the $49.99? Especially if this is a few years ago and it's an FCP 7 editor looking for a new NLE.

When Adobe starts missing it's subscriber goals I think they'll do something like offering bundles (similar to the CS bundles) for $34.99 or $39.99. I wouldn't expect Adobe to drop the bar too low because once you offer something for a lower price, it's extremely difficult to go up again.


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andy patterson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 9, 2017 at 8:41:42 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "Sure, PPro has competition, but what about After Effects? And how many editors need After Effects? If an editor already pays the $49.99 to get After Effects, doesn't it seem likely that they'll give PPro a shot since it's included in the $49.99"

Why pay $49.99 for CC if the competition can make a better offer? What if BMD offers fusion and DR for $199.99 at NAB 2018? I doubt that will happen but who knows for sure? FCPX is only $299.99 and Motion is only $50.00. The competition in the world of NLE is lowering prices. Some could argue that if Adobe still had the CS paradigm the prices might have had to drop slightly to compete with the competition. I am not saying Adobe will drop the CC prices but they may loose some revenue. As I have stated $49.99 is not a lot of money for a post production house but for a web blogger it is. Not everyone has clients in the year 2017. Some do it as a hobby. There was a time when Adobe cared about the little guy. The little guy might opt for DR or FCPX. Will BMD have a photo/graphic arts program at NAB 2018 for $99.99? Who knows? I would not be surprised if it happens. I think BMD realizes the value of software. $49.99 per month is not bad but competition is out there. For some DR and FCPX might be a better option. I don't doubt BMD is looking at purchasing other software titles.


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Ralph Hajik
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 12:02:42 am

Hi Bob

Great video, information and time well spent to watching this video. I highly recommend it.

Happy Travels
Ralph Hajik
RJTravelMedia
http://www.RJTravelMedia.com


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Oliver Peters
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 12:25:33 am

[Ralph Hajik] "information and time well spent"

Thanks for your kind words.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Oliver Peters
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 12:24:54 am

[andy patterson] "What if BMD offers fusion and DR for $199.99 at NAB 2018? I doubt that will happen but who knows for sure? FCPX is only $299.99 and Motion is only $50.00"

If we are talking about pro users, price isn't a factor here. Both Fusion and Motion have radically different approaches to AE, so therefore AE is still pretty entrenched. The price isn't going to be a determining factor. Same reason Flame continues to exist.

[andy patterson] "Will BMD have a photo/graphic arts program at NAB 2018 for $99.99? Who knows? "

Serif Affinity and Pixelmator have been out for a while. Both groups are excellent products and legitimate rivals to Photoshop and Illustrator. Yet they don't really seem to be much of a challenge to Adobe.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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andy patterson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 2:15:02 am

[Oliver Peters] "If we are talking about pro users, price isn't a factor here. Both Fusion and Motion have radically different approaches to AE, so therefore AE is still pretty entrenched. The price isn't going to be a determining factor. Same reason Flame continues to exist."

Are you suggestion YouTube bloggers should invest in a Flame system?

I have already stated for a post production house $49.99 is not expensive. I posted that in plain English.

In fact I stated for the average blogger $49.99 is expensive.

I doubt the average blogger needs AE while on the other hand Motion and FCPX can offer a lot for the price. If you can respond with a counter argument why the average blogger with no clients in the year 2017 needs the CC over DR or FCPX I would love to hear your reasons. To say $49.99 is not to expensive for a post production house is a non issues and no one that I can recall has ever made that argument that $49.99 is to expensive for a post production house. What I am stating is Adobe wants to cater exclusively to the higher end editors like Avid once did. However in the year 2017 there a millions of dollars to be made from video bloggers who want a little more than what iMovie has to offer. Adobe has decide those customers can use DR, FCPX, Vegas Video or Pinnacle Studio. That is the point I am making and that is what you must address.

[Oliver Peters] "[andy patterson] "Will BMD have a photo/graphic arts program at NAB 2018 for $99.99? Who knows? "

Serif Affinity and Pixelmator have been out for a while. Both groups are excellent products and legitimate rivals to Photoshop and Illustrator. Yet they don't really seem to be much of a challenge to Adobe."


My point is BMD design sees the value in software. If BMD can create a graphic/photo program that integrates with DR then that would be much better than using Serif Affinity or Pixelmator. You must think about the bigger picture. Adobe has great integration with other Adobe Programs. That kind of ecosystem is hard to top but BMD could do the same thing.


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Oliver Peters
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 12:58:27 pm

[andy patterson] "Are you suggestion YouTube bloggers should invest in a Flame system?
I have already stated for a post production house $49.99 is not expensive. I posted that in plain English. "


Yes and I posted in plain English that I was talking about pro users. Don't play silly semantic games.

[andy patterson] "My point is BMD design sees the value in software."

Yes and no. Their software is designed for the sole reason of selling hardware. Otherwise, you could send Resolve's video out through an AJA i/o device or card or even full screen to an external desktop as video over HDMI without any device. You can do both of those things with Premiere Pro and FCPX.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 2:54:38 am
Last Edited By Andrew Kimery on Jun 10, 2017 at 2:55:49 am

[andy patterson] "Why pay $49.99 for CC if the competition can make a better offer? What if BMD offers fusion and DR for $199.99 at NAB 2018? I doubt that will happen but who knows for sure? FCPX is only $299.99 and Motion is only $50.00. The competition in the world of NLE is lowering prices. "

Maybe BMD does all that but DR adaption as an NLE remains relatively small because most people are happy with their current NLE and don't see a compelling reason to switch? If Adobe's numbers start leveling off (due to competition or just market saturation) and thinks a price drop is needed my guess, like we've talked about before, is that they'll probably release CS-like bundles for a bit less than the Master Collection that they offer now.

Though for the last 5yrs the points have been free DR, $299 FCP X, $49.99 CC, and $999-$1299 MC (or $49.99 for a 12/mo subscription), yet Adobe is hitting their subscriber numbers and their stock is amaze-balls. I fail to understand why the price gap is a such a problem now when it hasn't changed over the last half decade. Even if Adobe cuts it's CC price in half it's still going to be more expensive than free DR from day one and more expensive than FCP X and paid DR as soon as year two of the subscription rolls around.

I think blindly chasing falling prices will topple Adobe the same way it toppled many PC manufactures that chased Dell in its race-to-the-bottom pricing (with Dell itself ultimately bottoming out too). Adobe has to focus on selling value, not price, because they will always lose a price war to companies like Apple and BMD. If people find sufficient value in a product then they will pay for it even if it costs more than the competition. Maybe in a few years people will get tired of the recurring payments (which is a greater problem for Adobe than prices), or maybe the payments will fade into the background just like our phone bills, ISP bills, insurance bills, Netflix subscription, etc.,... It just becomes another cost lost in a seas of costs.


[andy patterson] "...web blogger it is. Not everyone has clients in the year 2017. Some do it as a hobby. "

Someone vlogging as hobby isn't going to spend $1800 on the Production Premium CS. Even if Adobe cut its CS prices in half it would still be way more expensive than free DR and $299 FCP X (especially when you factor in Adobe charging for annual upgrades where as Apple and BMD do not).

You keep contrasting poor vloggers to post houses even though the industry is much more diverse than that. Every week I see job ads posted on Staff Me Up, Film and TV Pro, Media Match, various FB groups, Craigslist, etc., from small and medium sized businesses across the US looking for editors that know Premiere Pro. Corporate, news, ad/marketing, web/digital, low budget indies, docs, etc.,.. Over the past few years I've seen nothing but growing demand for Premiere users across the spectrum.


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andy patterson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 3:38:36 am

[Andrew Kimery] "Though for the last 5yrs the points have been free DR, $299 FCP X, $49.99 CC, and $999-$1299 MC (or $49.99 for a 12/mo subscription), yet Adobe is hitting their subscriber numbers and their stock is amaze-balls"

I was not interested in DR five years ago. If you watch the video other people mention DR 14 is a game changer and the price for the paid version has dropped. You forgot to mention that. I think it was dropped to compete with FCPX but who knows for sure? Also Adobe can loose video editors and sill make money from graphic design artist.

[Andrew Kimery] "Even if Adobe cuts it's CC price in half it's still going to be more expensive than free DR from day one and more expensive than FCP X and paid DR as soon as year two of the subscription rolls around."

It does not have to be free just affordable to the average web blogger. Having said that Premiere Pro does have to start making good updates again. DR 14 looks good and as other haves stated the price is right.



[Andrew Kimery] "
I think blindly chasing falling prices will topple Adobe the same way it toppled many PC manufactures that chased Dell in its race-to-the-bottom pricing (with Dell itself ultimately bottoming out too). Adobe has to focus on selling value, not price, because they will always lose a price war to companies like Apple and BMD. If people find sufficient value in a product then they will pay for it even if it costs more than the competition. Maybe in a few years people will get tired of the recurring payments (which is a greater problem for Adobe than prices), or maybe the payments will fade into the background just like our phone bills, ISP bills, insurance bills, Netflix subscription, etc.,... It just becomes another cost lost in a seas of costs."


Adobe updates since the CC have been mediocre. I would agree that Adobe should focus on creating a good product but they still have bugs form over a year ago. Adobe is not offering a superior product anymore over the competition.


[Andrew Kimery] "Someone vlogging as hobby isn't going to spend $1800 on the Production Premium CS. Even if Adobe cut its CS prices in half it would still be way more expensive than free DR and $299 FCP X (especially when you factor in Adobe charging for annual upgrades where as Apple and BMD do not)."

You are totally proving my point. I never stated a blogger would spend $1800.00 on the CS Production Premium. What I stated is that for the web blogger wanting a little more than what iMovie offers Adobe has opted not to compete with BMD or FCPX.


[Andrew Kimery] "You keep contrasting poor vloggers to post houses even though the industry is much more diverse than that."

I do not keep contrasting them at all. I am saying that in 2017 there is a market for hobbyist unlike in the year 2002. I never stated there are only YouTubers and post production house. Never did I make that statement.


[Andrew Kimery] "Every week I see job ads posted on Staff Me Up, Film and TV Pro, Media Match, various FB groups, Craigslist, etc., from small and medium sized businesses across the US looking for editors that know Premiere Pro. Corporate, news, ad/marketing, web/digital, low budget indies, docs, etc.,.. Over the past few years I've seen nothing but growing demand for Premiere users across the spectrum."

I never said otherwise but you have to learn to comprehend that DR 14 is still in beta. Where will DR be in another two years? I am on a PC and never gave DR a second look until now. I never thought about FCPX but I now have a Mac and a PC and all I can say is competition is good.


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Brian Seegmiller
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 4:15:46 am

[Andrew Kimery] "Every week I see job ads posted on Staff Me Up, Film and TV Pro, Media Match, various FB groups, Craigslist, etc., from small and medium sized businesses across the US looking for editors that know Premiere Pro.

The ones I see mention PP, but also mention knowing FCP X is a plus

Andy PattersonAdobe updates since the CC have been mediocre. I would agree that Adobe should focus on creating a good product but they still have bugs form over a year ago. Adobe is not offering a superior product anymore over the competition.

But it has a great titler that can create logos. Just kidding Andy.


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andy patterson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 4:42:08 am

[Brian Seegmiller] "But it has a great titler that can create logos. Just kidding Andy."

Premiere Pro's titling tools are good. Rather than create a canned effects generator Adobe should have fixed all the bugs. Having said that FCPX has bugs as well. So does DR 14 in the beta state. No NLE is perfect but Premiere used to have less bugs. Every CC release introduces new bugs. Most of them get fixed quick but some do not. When I only had a PC nothing looked like an option two years ago. No that I have a Mac and PC, DR and FCPX might prove to be a viable alternative.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 8:09:35 am

[andy patterson] "I was not interested in DR five years ago. If you watch the video other people mention DR 14 is a game changer and the price for the paid version has dropped. You forgot to mention that. "

I think I started with DR at version 9 and people have been saying DR is a game changer for the past 3 or 4 years. Each year people praise the updates to it's NLE functionality, but then the tone changes to "the updates are great but..." When it actually starts changing the game I'll believe it is a game changer. I didn't mention the price drop because the conversation keeps focusing on lowering prices and free is a lot lower than $299.

[andy patterson] "What I am stating is Adobe wants to cater exclusively to the higher end editors like Avid once did. "

if Adobe is trying to carter exclusively to the high end they are failing miserably. First off, they aren't charging nearly enough ($50/mo to Avid only gets you MC where as $50/mo to Adobe gets you everything). Secondly, they pretty much failed to secure the vacated inroads FCP Legend made into the high end. I'd guess Avid owns more of the high end now than it has in years as places that used to use FCP Legend opted to switch to Avid instead of X or PPro. Finally, they have YouTubers like Freddie Wong talking at their events and waste their time on down market features like the Social Media Publishing tool...

One of the things Adobe has done a solid job of though is hoovering up a lot of the mid market and lower market that used to be dominated by FCP Legend.


[andy patterson] "You are totally proving my point. I never stated a blogger would spend $1800.00 on the CS Production Premium. "

You keep saying things like [andy patterson] "There was a time when Adobe cared about the little guy." and I'm just trying to figure out when that time was and what Adobe product you keep alluding to. It's certainly not the Creative Suite that you wish Adobe would return too.


[andy patterson] "What I stated is that for the web blogger wanting a little more than what iMovie offers Adobe has opted not to compete with BMD or FCPX."

Adobe Premiere Elements is $99 (perpetual license). $149 for Premiere Elements and Photoshop Elements combo (I might have just answered my previous question for you). Of course that's still not as good as free DR.


[andy patterson] "I never stated there are only YouTubers and post production house. Never did I make that statement. "

I never said you made that statement. I said that you keep focusing on two extremes (hobbyist YouTubers/vloggers and post houses). For example:

[andy patterson] "I have already stated for a post production house $49.99 is not expensive... In fact I stated for the average blogger $49.99 is expensive.

I doubt the average blogger needs AE while on the other hand Motion and FCPX can offer a lot for the price... To say $49.99 is not to expensive for a post production house is a non issues..."


[andy patterson] "As I have stated $49.99 is not a lot of money for a post production house but for a web blogger it is"

[andy patterson] "I am saying many YouTubers will opt for FCPX or DR because of the costly rental paradigm when compared to Premiere Pro. No one is saying that for a post production house $50.00 a month is to expensive. "

[andy patterson] "There are a lot of Youtubers that use Macs that have ditched Premiere Pro in favor of FCPX... I admit a post production house is not going to be as concerned about the cost as opposed to workflow paradigms.
"


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andy patterson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 2:18:31 pm

[Andrew Kimery] " I didn't mention the price drop because the conversation keeps focusing on lowering prices and free is a lot lower than $299."

Price is important to the hobbyists. For that market FCPX and DR might seem to be a better option.


[Andrew Kimery] "I think I started with DR at version 9 and people have been saying DR is a game changer for the past 3 or 4 years. Each year people praise the updates to it's NLE functionality, but then the tone changes to "the updates are great but..." When it actually starts changing the game I'll believe it is a game changer."

Fairlight is nice but I like DR's marker system better than Premiere Pro. I had suggested a feature request to Adobe but BMD did it.


[Andrew Kimery] "Secondly, they pretty much failed to secure the vacated inroads FCP Legend made into the high end."

Adobe wants the high-end market. I did not say they are the high-end market.


[Andrew Kimery] "I'd guess Avid owns more of the high end now than it has in years as places that used to use FCP Legend opted to switch to Avid instead of X or PPro."

You keep responding with strawmans. I don't doubt Avid is top dog but how is this relevant to the fact the Adobe is not worried about the little guy? That is what my comments are about. Can you please explain why the CC would be a better option for a blogger or hobbiest than the DR?

[Andrew Kimery] "Finally, they have YouTubers like Freddie Wong talking at their events and waste their time on down market features like the Social Media Publishing tool..."

Of course some Youtubers will be using the CC. What is your point? My point is for some companies their prices are dropping. Will Google Docs make MS Office Obsolete? Probably not. Can some people get by with Google Docs. Probably.


[Andrew Kimery] "One of the things Adobe has done a solid job of though is hoovering up a lot of the mid market and lower market that used to be dominated by FCP Legend."

I think FCPX is what made people switch. If FCP 8 was here today who knows what would have happened?

I stand by all my statement you decided to quote. For a post production house that has clients every day $49.99 is is a non issues. On the flip side the bloggers who have stopped the CC subscription always mention FCPX is less expensive and does the job. Plus some think it is more stable than Premiere Pro and performs better than Premiere Pro. I don't doubt FCPX might work better on a laptop than Premiere Pro.


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Oliver Peters
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 1:05:37 pm
Last Edited By Oliver Peters on Jun 10, 2017 at 2:18:24 pm

[andy patterson] "Adobe updates since the CC have been mediocre. I would agree that Adobe should focus on creating a good product but they still have bugs form over a year ago. Adobe is not offering a superior product anymore over the competition. "

Hmm... I would completely disagree. I work at plenty of shops that shifted to Premiere precisely because of where the app is today or was a couple of years ago after CC. In the state it was in during CS, they might have been AE customers, but would have never considered Premiere over the competition. Even given FCPX. Had Premiere not continued to address their needs, those costumers would have (and many did) shifted back to Avid.

FWIW - no NLE manufacturer is offering a superior product. They are all solid and all have their strengths and weaknesses, pros and cons. It really just depends on your needs and which one addresses them in the best fashion.

[andy patterson] "Adobe has decide those customers can use DR, FCPX, Vegas Video or Pinnacle Studio."

One more thing - Aren't you failing to follow through to the conclusions of your own argument? Vbloggers and hobbyists already have a powerful free tool in Resolve. Maybe BMD gets a camera sale out of it, maybe they don't. This customer probably doesn't need i/o, so BMD gets nothing out of it other than good will.

Now look at Adobe. Let's say they cut their prices 50% - so $25/mo. for CC, $10/mo. for Premiere individually, etc. This still won't attract the free users, who in your thoughts already have a superior product. So the people who are comfortable in paying Adobe's current rates, now only pay half, and Adobe loses 50% of their revenue stream. And don't tell me Adobe still makes money, because neither of us have the info to know that.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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andy patterson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 3:04:57 pm

[Oliver Peters] "[andy patterson] "Adobe updates since the CC have been mediocre. I would agree that Adobe should focus on creating a good product but they still have bugs form over a year ago. Adobe is not offering a superior product anymore over the competition. "

Hmm... I would completely disagree. I work at plenty of shops that shifted to Premiere precisely because of where the app is today or was a couple of years ago after CC. In the state it was in during CS, they might have been AE customers, but would have never considered Premiere over the competition. Even given FCPX. Had Premiere not continued to address their needs, those costumers would have (and many did) shifted back to Avid."


I am not saying Premiere Pro has not gotten updates. I am saying the last couple of years the updates were not that great and we keep getting bugs with each update that should have been caught by Adobe. Keep in mind 64 bit, CUDA and adding Audition go back to the CS days. Adobe Anywhere seems cool for certain users but that was implemented over two years ago. Having said that what do you think is the biggest improvement in the last 2 years that made people switch? I don't doubt there might be something but I can easily say CS 4.0 to CS 5.0 was a huge update. To much to list.


[Oliver Peters] "FWIW - no NLE manufacturer is offering a superior product."

Premiere Pro is buggier now days. I used to think Premiere Pro was awesome but the past couple of years have been a love hate situation. I see minor updates at the cost of more bugs. I never made videos about Premiere Pro bugs in CS days.

[Oliver Peters] "One more thing - Aren't you failing to follow through to the conclusions of your own argument? Vbloggers and hobbyists already have a powerful free tool in Resolve."

My conclusion? Have you actually read any of my comments? I have already stated Adobe is not worried about the bloggers. I have also stated Apple and BMD design are trying to get that market. Or at the very least their products probably appeal to that market more than the CC subscription model. Keep in mind many CS users held on to CS 6 for as long as they could. The majority of people didn't say the CC is the best thing since sliced bread. In fact most people did not like it for a multitude of reasons. I bought CS 5.5 in 2011 and did not join the CC until 2014. There were enough features that I wanted by that time. As I stated I see more bugs and I pay for updates even if I don't think they are useful for my needs. That was not the case with the CS paradigm. As sated I pay more and get less with the CC. I admit I get more bugs now but that is not a good thing.


[Oliver Peters] "Now look at Adobe. Let's say they cut their prices 50% - so $25/mo. for CC, $10/mo. for Premiere individually, etc. This still won't attract the free users, who in your thoughts already have a superior product"

They don't need a free product. They need something more affordable. Why do you think they have student pricing? Also if the free version of DR is buggier than Premiere Pro people might opt for Premiere Pro, AE and Audition for $9.99.


[Oliver Peters] "So the people who are comfortable in paying Adobe's current rates, now only pay half, and Adobe loses 50% of their revenue stream. And don't tell me Adobe still makes money, because neither of us have the info to know that."

If they lower the price or even offer Premiere Pro, AE and Audition for $9.99 they may increase the CC subscription by 300%. Having said that we cannot say what the future holds at this point in time. We can only speculate.


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Oliver Peters
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 3:42:46 pm

[andy patterson] "If they lower the price or even offer Premiere Pro, AE and Audition for $9.99 they may increase the CC subscription by 300%."

That's the free market argument. In principle, I agree with that, however, it works best when their aren't other factors. Unfortuantely that often isn't the case and the result is often not an increase. It certainly hasn't worked for many others, like Avid, for example. But yes, it's all just speculation.

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Mark Raudonis
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 3:10:13 pm

Thanks for posting this, Oliver.

This panel was a great round up of not only NAB, but the state of the industry in general.

Should be required viewing for anyone who didn't attend NAB.



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Ricardo Marty
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 3:46:32 pm

Like adobe in the past DR is in probably every suite in the world. If it starts offering avid like or better functionalities many might just be tempted. Who know it might even jump over adobe ibto the high-end market.

Ricardo Marty


p.s.

Would like to know what makes quantel super high-end


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Bob Zelin
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 4:06:44 pm

ooh - is there a fight going on, and I am missing it ?
Andy writes -
"As I have stated $49.99 is not a lot of money for a post production house but for a web blogger it is. Not everyone has clients in the year 2017. Some do it as a hobby. "


I take great exception to this statement. I am an amateur musician, and I know lots of amateur musicians. And I see plenty of kids, including POOR kids, that play guitar, drums, etc. And kids into EDM with DJ equipment. That do it for a hobby, do it for fun. And these "toys" cost a lot more than $49.99. If you are serious about your hobby, you find the money to get your toys. If you love making videos, you find that 50 bucks. And when you own DR, or Media Composer First, or Lightworks, or Media 100, or an old copy of FCP 7 that someone gave you, you still need a computer, you still need drive space, and that costs more than 50 bucks.

Bob Zelin

Bob Zelin
Rescue 1, Inc.
bobzelin@icloud.com


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 5:23:03 pm

[andy patterson] "You keep responding with strawmans. I don't doubt Avid is top dog but how is this relevant to the fact the Adobe is not worried about the little guy? That is what my comments are about. Can you please explain why the CC would be a better option for a blogger or hobbiest than the DR? "

I'm just asking you to tell me what Adobe product was for the little guy years ago when you say Adobe cared about the little guy.

Is Premiere Elements today not a good option for the little guy? If the little guy is only concerned about price then free DR and free Media100 beat everything. They beat full price DR. They beat FCP X. They beat Adobe. They beat Avid. They beat Vegas. They beat anything that costs money (not matter how much or how little money).

As to why anything other than free DR or free M100 would be better for a hobbyist? That's up to each individual and their wants/needs. That's the odd thing about value, it encompasses more than just price. Maybe they use Adobe products at work and make tutorials for Adobe products in their free time? Maybe they make movies with their friends who use Adobe products so they do too in order to make collaboration easier? Maybe they chose it because that's what the filmmakers they follow us? Maybe you could find actual hobbyists themselves and ask?

[andy patterson] "Will Google Docs make MS Office Obsolete? Probably not. Can some people get by with Google Docs. Probably. "

So MS Office can still be competitive even though it costs way more money than Google Docs? It's almost as if a product's value can be important than its price. I agree.


[andy patterson] "I think FCPX is what made people switch. If FCP 8 was here today who knows what would have happened? "

Certainly agree with that. Apple killing FCP Legend and launching X busted the door wide open for competition.


[andy patterson] "On the flip side the bloggers who have stopped the CC subscription always mention FCPX is less expensive and does the job. "

So Apple should make FCP X free so they can compete with free DR?



[Bob Zelin] "I am an amateur musician, and I know lots of amateur musicians... "

That's a good point, Bob.


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Tim Wilson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 6:21:12 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "Maybe they use Adobe products at work and make tutorials for Adobe products in their free time? Maybe they make movies with their friends who use Adobe products so they do too in order to make collaboration easier? Maybe they chose it because that's what the filmmakers they follow us? Maybe you could find actual hobbyists themselves and ask?"

No need to ask. Look around YouTube. There's no shortage of hobbyists using Adobe CC. If anything, I'd say that the number has been increasing over the last few years. The tutorial data point is critical -- the number of non-pros making Adobe tutorials has skyrocketed of late.

I say non-pros, because I think that a number of them are following a business model pioneered by Andrew Kramer here at Creative COW before he went into orbit as Video Copilot -- skillful hobbyists who use their video tutorials as the springboard to what becomes a very good living. His skills (including his intelligence, drive, and personal charisma) are not replicable (even if the projects, minus the charisma and intelligence, are frequently copied), but the path he's shown is true. Skills making Adobe YouTube tutorials CAN turn into a professional living, which we've not seen as broadly with other companies.

Indeed, nobody has been more engaged with that community than Adobe. That's much of what their purchase of the Behance community was about, and why you can see Adobe's footprint in, let's call it pre-professional or para-professional video, extend far beyond YouTube to Facebook and (even moreso) Instagram. This is Adobe's wheelhouse. They don't have to do anything different to go after those folks. They've got them, and their reach is growing.

Besides, as you've pointed out before, Andrew, these prices have been set for YEARS: Resolve free since 2009, FCPX since 2011, CC since 2013, etc etc. It's absolute nonsense to point to price sensitivity as a serious issue, and even more nonsense to call it out as more true for hobbyists. It's simply not, and people saying that it is betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of how pros work, how hobbyists work, recent history, and quite simply, the most basic YouTube search results. I have no idea how anybody can think that this is an issue based on anything other than their own vivid imaginations.

[Bob Zelin] "And these "toys" cost a lot more than $49.99. If you are serious about your hobby, you find the money to get your toys."

Seriously! The idea that hobbyists are cheap is absolutely nonsense.

Bob, you and I discussed seeing this even in the 90s, when a "cheap" used Media 100 + drives + a "real" computer to run it on would start in the $20,000+ range ($50,000 new for what was then the "so cheap it can't possibly be pro" kid in town) -- PLENTY of hobbyists were doing this. Not much more than a handful of guitars and a used car.

Indeed, I was living on an island at the time, in a town of 7000 people in the middle of nowhere, and my neighbor's kid was given the choice of a car, a boat, or a Media 100 for his 18th birthday, and he picked the Media 100. A teenager picking an NLE over a car or a boat? No-brainer for the dedicated hobbyist. Who presumably is also willing to forego sex. 😂

Hobbyists certainly blew up by the turn of the decade with DV cameras, the pinnacle of which was the Panasonic DVX100 (which popularized 24p for the masses), introduced in 2002 for $4000. Also VERY popular, the Canon XL2, for $5000.

Back then, that was real money. 😂

Speaking of which, I encourage anyone who wants to equate hobbyists and "cheap" to spend time with some hobbyist photographers. The money hobbyists are spending is staggering. Easily dwarfs what many pros here are spending on video gear.

Anyway, I've been as bad about this as anyone, but it would be kinda cool if we brought the conversation back around to this video, WHICH IS AWESOME, rather than bringing up the same things flying around on a half dozen other threads where they'd be perfectly ON topic.

So what'd y'all think of the VIDEO? 😎 🐮


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andy patterson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 9:53:47 pm

[Tim Wilson] "I say non-pros, because I think that a number of them are following a business model pioneered by Andrew Kramer here at Creative COW before he went into orbit as Video Copilot -- skillful hobbyists who use their video tutorials as the springboard to what becomes a very good living. His skills (including his personal charisma) are not replicable (even if the projects, minus the charisma, are frequently copied), but the path he's shown is true. Skills making Adobe YouTube tutorials CAN turn into a living, which we've not seen as broadly with other companies."

At that point you are not talking about a hobbyist. That my friend is a business.

[Tim Wilson] "Seriously! The idea that hobbyists are cheap is absolutely nonsense."

I agree that idea is nonsense but who said they were cheap? There are video hobbyist with $2500.00 Custom Less Paul's and $2500.00 Fender guitars but that does not mean they are going to buy top of the line editing software if something for free will work just fine for their needs. On the flip side some folks will spend $3500.00 on Avid MC, Pro Tools etc and buy a $300.00 Epiphone guitar. It is not about being cheap but how the money is spent.

[Tim Wilson] "Andrew, these prices have been set for YEARS: Resolve free since 2009, FCPX since 2011, CC since 2013, etc etc."

DR was not what it is now back in 2009. A lot has changed.


[Tim Wilson] "Speaking of which, I encourage anyone who wants to equate hobbyists and "cheap" to spend time with some hobbyist photographers. The money hobbyists are spending is staggering. Easily dwarfs what many pros here are spending on video gear."

I think that is your bad. I don't recall anyone saying hobbyist are cheap. Having said that I think you might be considering Marques Brownlee, and iJustine hobbyists. They are professional bloggers. Are there video hobbyist not making money that spend a lot of money on AV gear. Of course. No one has said other wise.


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Oliver Peters
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 7:24:11 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "Apple killing FCP Legend and launching X busted the door wide open for competition."

Sometimes it's all just timing. Being at the right place at the right time might be all it takes, rather than any specific features. Premiere was familiar enough and the overall community liked Adobe's development trajectory.

FWIW - There's a Fortune magazine article (6/15 issue) coming out about Adobe. Apparently subscription numbers, income, and stock prices are all up.

http://fortune.com/2017/06/10/fortune-500-adobe-ceo-photoshop-ai/

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Scott Witthaus
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 11, 2017 at 1:02:54 pm

[Oliver Peters] "There's a Fortune magazine article (6/15 issue) coming out about Adobe. Apparently subscription numbers, income, and stock prices are all up"

Too bad that hasn't worked for Avid.

It's an interesting company and theory. To spread out the revenue (so as not to depend on just editing software) other companies lean on hardware, cameras, storage, etc. Adobe just makes more software and has figured a price that makes it all work. Plus they are going hard at enterprise and educational accounts (like VCU, where I teach). The challenge they have at an educational (and I assume corporate/enterprise level is showing a value for all parts of the university. Why should the business school consider the CC over the MC (marketing cloud)? Why would the folks in the Nursing School care about the CC? What happens to student work after they leave their educational account upon graduation? Can I get Adobe Stock as a standalone contract for my school (Dennis, can you help here?)? I was at yet another Adobe presentation 4 weeks ago and they had no good answers for these questions. rather some vague "we'll certainly have to look into that..." type of replies. If I am Apple, I sense an opportunity here...if they really care.

Scott Witthaus
Owner, 1708 Inc./Editorial
Managing Partner, Low Country Creative LLC
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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Tim Wilson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 13, 2017 at 1:20:33 am

[Scott Witthaus] "[Oliver Peters] "There's a Fortune magazine article (6/15 issue) coming out about Adobe. Apparently subscription numbers, income, and stock prices are all up"

Too bad that hasn't worked for Avid. "


The big reason why is that adding subscription software to the mix wasn't fundamentally transformative. The majority of Avid's customers have been renting everything -- not just the Avid software, but the computers, storage, monitors, the whole kit and kaboodle. It's the Hollywood way, where you rent everything: cameras, lenses, lights, dollies, cranes, locations.

Yeah, this started changing a bit with Adrenaline in 2003, but even most of those got sold into the rental ecosystem, and I'd guess that dang near all of the software-only versions of Media Composer have been going to people who either rented or bought previous systems. And I personally met thousands of editors over my years there, and I could maybe fill a few tables of Texas Hold 'Em with people who didn't have service policies.

Avid's move to "service contract or no upgrades" had FAR more to do with preventing another Sarbanes-Oxley bollixing (where they'd provided what THEY thought was a free upgrade, but the DOJ said no, you should have charged for it; now you get to restate a debit for what you SHOULD have charged against everyone who wasn't under a service contract) than creating a new revenue stream.

The larger issue is that Adobe doesn't have anything to teach Avid, because they're not in the same business. In most practical ways, they're not even in the same industry anymore.

The company most like Avid is actually Blackmagic, which was revealed more clearly than ever around NAB. During the show, Dan May was very plain that the company is now built around Resolve. Once you understand that, a whole lot of other things make sense, including Grant's revelation that the reason they got into the camera business was to revolutionize the quality of images that you could affordably feed into Resolve!

All those other products, including the ones that predate Resolve (routers and such) are now presented as part of that orbit, even if people can and do buy that stuff without also buying Resolve. Resolve is nevertheless at the heart of it, even as the price becomes not just free, but they keep piling more stuff into it for the price.

The same dynamic is true at Avid, where software whose price approaches zeros is at the heart of an orbit of products might be selling without Media Composer, but unlike Blackmagic (who can sell cameras and routers to people who don't use Resolve), there's little about Avid's product lineup that makes sense apart from other Avid products.

They're obviously breaking away with NEXIS storage, explicitly messaging that it's the best professional media production storage, regardless of platform or NLE. They're also breaking away from this in news and sports, where I think theirs are by far the most compelling offerings in the industry. First down overlays for football broadcasts have nothing to do with editing.

Avid Audio with Pro Tools is different, with even fewer degrees of latitude. Ain't nobody talking about free Pro Tools, and as much as I think Blackmagic's Fairlight story is the biggest news in the industry since....well, since Resolve in 2009....I think we're years away from seeing just how disruptive it ultimately is. Blackmagic is explicit: they're not going after audio pros, but rather video guys who do audio, which is exactly the opposite direction of Pro Tools. Pro Tools, like Media Composer, like dang near everything else Avid does, is made for specialists.

A big answer to the question of how Grant gets away with doing what he does with Blackmagic is that he doesn't have to answer to Wall Street, or any other global cabal of capitalist ruffians. He only has to make enough more than he spends to keep the wolves away from the door and have as much fun as he wants to have. His people are happy, his customers are happy, and the rest is nobody's business but his. Good!

Quantel learned that lesson. They saw that they had plenty of juice left to run a business -- as long as it wasn't a publicly-traded business. So management bought the company back in 2000, and introduced iQ and Pablo in short order. The post-Snell acquisition rebranding as SAM has led to 20% YoY growth. They're doing fine.

I think Avid is doing pretty much everything they need to be doing. Maybe the most surprising takeaway from NAB is that Avid may have the most robust, most engaged user base in our part of the industry. I'm not talking about comparing it to an iPhone event, even though it certainly compared favorably with WWDC. But within THIS industry? Seriously, did you pay attention to what was happening at the Avid Connect event? Probably not -- pretty much, if you weren't there, you probably didn't need to -- but I've never seen anything like it, in any industry, and I daresay none of you have either.

My point being that if they didn't keep banging their head against the wall of quarterlies, Sarbox, and all the hoops they have to jump through to amuse the oligarchs who are running the world's shadow governments, Avid could have as happy and robust a future as they wanted to. I'm thinking that they're not even considering this, believing that they can have it all, and maybe they can...but I'd love to see them able to focus ALL their attention on just developing cool stuff (check) and engaging their customers (check), and be delivered from the rest of the mishegoss.


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Oliver Peters
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 13, 2017 at 1:20:08 pm

[Tim Wilson] "I think Avid is doing pretty much everything they need to be doing. Maybe the most surprising takeaway from NAB is that Avid may have the most robust, most engaged user base in our part of the industry. I'm not talking about comparing it to an iPhone event, even though it certainly compared favorably with WWDC. But within THIS industry? Seriously, did you pay attention to what was happening at the Avid Connect event? Probably not -- pretty much, if you weren't there, you probably didn't need to -- but I've never seen anything like it, in any industry, and I daresay none of you have either."

This is an interesting observation. Avid Connect had 1300 PAID attendees, who came in a couple of days early to be there. This number has been increasing each year for the 4 years that it's been held. Compare this to the attendance at the various FCPworks sessions, which were free. I mean no offense, here, as these were good and valuable sessions. But the difference in numbers is striking. And Supermeets don't count. They are circuses with people attending just for the show, whether they care about FCP or not. Plus, Avid's booth presentations on the show floor were well attended the whole week, as were Adobe's. The bottomline is that you can talk about FCPX's 2 million seats all you want, but the visible impact on the industry - other than in a few pockets - is hard to find. In the TV, film, and even commercial world, Avid dominance is still pretty strong - especially in the major markets.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Tim Wilson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 13, 2017 at 5:21:36 pm

[Oliver Peters] "Avid Connect had 1300 PAID attendees, who came in a couple of days early to be there. This number has been increasing each year for the 4 years that it's been held. Compare this to the attendance at the various FCPworks sessions, which were free. I mean no offense, here, as these were good and valuable sessions. But the difference in numbers is striking. And Supermeets don't count. They are circuses with people attending just for the show, whether they care about FCP or not."

Agreed on all counts (since you were agreeing with me 😂).

I'm a big fan of the FCPWORKS sessions, but you're right, not comparable in scope, and the Supermeets haven't been all-Apple for ages. Not only have Adobe and Blackmagic had huge roles, Blackmagic has given out the big prizes, and many of the headliners (say, Dody Dorn, ACE this year) have either not been associated with ANY particular NLE, or primarily use Avid. Last year's headliners were Resolve, Rob Legato (who does a LOT of things not even vaguely related to editing, including Second Unit direction and miniatures, but he's also been heavily on the road promoting Adobe Premiere Pro), and HP's Jeff Wood.

It's almost like, combine the FCPWORKS sessions with the Supermeets, have them go for the entire weekend before the show, and charge a lot more money. It could totally be done. I'd never want to say for a second that Avid has the ONLY engaged user base or anything like it.

But I'm saying that you can't understand the fundamental landscape of the industry without taking into account how energized Avid's customers are right now. They're not just bullish. They're stampeding, in a good way. Avid is getting the basics right, and customers are responding.

Wall Street isn't, which is why I'm saying f*** 'em. All any business really needs to do is make more than it spends while offering products that their customers want. Everything else is a distraction. It's hard to turn away from what looks like easy money, but Avid is among many companies learning that it's harder than it looks. 😂

Blackmagic (and again, to a lesser but growing extent, Quantel/SAM) has shown the advantages of focused intent, even if that focus can also be expressed as proliferating offerings. There's unity of intent, all around image quality.


(This is a teensy sidebar, but can you imagine how much more annoying Grant's life would be if he had to justify his profit margins to Wall Street? I bet Grant can 😂 which he's never going to go public. 😎 I swear, pretty much every problem of Avid's would go away if they'd just get out of the market. Other than the stock, they really don't have any big problems, not in practice.)


[Richard Herd] "I keep hoping for a storage solution from Blackmagic."

Nothing to do with image quality. 😂

More broadly, Grant has said that he wants to solve Big Problems.

The first big one was an affordable way to get high quality video into a computer (Decklink). Then, how to manage that video around the facility (Grant being a TV and large post guy, leading to routers).

Then how to affordably improve the images (Resolve, Cintel, Teranex).

Then how to acquire even better images affordably (cameras).

Distribute both in-house and online (switchers, TV studio support, Web Presenter, duplicators, etc).

Bring top-tier DAW capabilities to video guys (Fairlight).`

BIG problems.

Cheap, reliable shared storage is a problem that's already solved. What's the breakthrough in sharability, affordability, or performance that Blackmagic could create that's better than what, say, LumaForge or Avid NEXIS (or QNAP or G-Tech) is already doing? My guess is, nothing. The breakthroughs have broken through. Blackmagic has never been interested in putting a badge on something for the sake of owning every product in the pipeline.

The one exception is play-out servers, but it looks to me like Blackmagic will skip all that and focus on OTT. Good move.

Monitors are almost interesting to me for them. Blackmagic has obviously done some great stuff with monitoring and viewfinders...but a better, more affordable monitor than what LG or Dell is doing now (did you see their stuff at NAB, or the InfoComm announcements? Yowza!), or pushing out past Flanders, HP, et al? Add to this my guess that the move to iMac Pro is going to put a bit of a chill on that market, and I don't see them going much further down this road than they already are.

I've got a whole riff on what I DO see from them that I'll save for another time, but for now, that's what I'd point people to. Grant's vision of solving Big Problems. I don't see any Big Problems regarding affordable, flexible shared storage that need solving.


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Oliver Peters
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 13, 2017 at 6:46:36 pm

[Tim Wilson] "Cheap, reliable shared storage is a problem that's already solved."

There's not much in that supply chain of shared storage that Grant could make more cheaply. The biggest chunk is drives, which he isn't going to make. Everyone buys from about 4 options. After that it's the chassis and server card, which numerous Asian manufacturers have already brought out at pretty low cost.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Tim Wilson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 13, 2017 at 8:46:46 pm

[Oliver Peters] "There's not much in that supply chain of shared storage that Grant could make more cheaply. The biggest chunk is drives, which he isn't going to make. Everyone buys from about 4 options. After that it's the chassis and server card, which numerous Asian manufacturers have already brought out at pretty low cost.
"


Agreed, but I want to also note that cheap isn't the only problem he's tried to solve, by any means. The sharing aspect is also something that's considerably more difficult than the drives themselves, and that too has been solved by a number of companies. Integrated ones like Avid have actually figured out how to do this at a far more compelling price point than was previously imaginable while also scaling up vastly higher, and there are cheap software-only solutions that ride on top of the storage of your choice, plus everything in between. There's hardly anyplace to even theoretically slot another solution into that ecosystem.

Again, that's the exact opposite of what Grant has done. There were huge opportunities for video IO, especially at the pricepoint he established. Colorgrading was on the rise, with Apple clearly punching a hole in the pre-BMD Resolve ecosystem with Color, but Grant blew it up even bigger by solving a number of related problems, including control surfaces and an attention span on the developer's part. 😂

Cinema cameras were on the rise, but affordably only being driven by DSLRs before Canon went all-in on actual video-oriented products, which was by no means a given was ever going to happen before Grant threw down.

DAW obviously going boldly where nobody ever imagined, via Fairlight. It's still stupefying to me that Grant did this. Anyone who hasn't read Marco Solorio's take on this needs to -- and if you have, read it again. 😃 This is MASSIVE.

We also haven't yet seen the productized version of ATEM switchers with Ultimatte brains built in, but you know it's coming as the broadcast story gets built out. Bob Zelin's fantastic NAB review pointed to several other gaps in Blackmagic's story (notably, lens control), and I'm excited to see those filling in....

...but nowhere in here do disks and sharing figure as industry-wide problems to be solved. In fact, I'd say that the extent to which it's a buyer's market with so many cheap but really, really good solutions is part of the reason why it's so brutal to be in the storage business. You can have fun if you're as nimble as LumaForge or as focused as Avid, but a mid-sized company swinging for the fences is exactly the wrong size, trying exactly the wrong thing, to be entering this market right now.

Needless to say, when Blackmagic releases their new shared storage -- four seats free with four seats of Resolve for $995 -- you can add it to the list of things I'm wrong about. 😂


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Bill Davis
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 14, 2017 at 5:54:30 am

[Oliver Peters] "Compare this to the attendance at the various FCPworks sessions, which were free. I mean no offense, here, as these were good and valuable sessions. But the difference in numbers is striking. A"

Dude, keep your Apples out of my Oranges.

Adobe spends MILLIONS on CC product marketing. Apple barely spends peanuts on X. Yet somehow, given that, X has SOLD to beyond parity in global seats.

Look, the Supermeet hasn't been an "Apple" thing in years. The last 5 years you can hardly find a Mac at a presentation there. Last year Steve Martin and Mark Spencer did ONE presentation - and this year Thomas Grove Carter did ONE presentation. That's IT.

Everything you saw about X at NAB was private, not Corporate dollars talking - the whole thing is is pretty astonishingly grass roots. Heck we didn't even KNOW we would be doing the LumaForge stuff until about 4 weeks prior to NAB!

I bet Adobe and AVID started working (and spending) for NAB 2018 a few days after we got back from last year.

You remove ALL that money for the big south hall booths, the monster banners wrapping the halls promoting stuff, and ARMIES of booth monkeys (a term of true endearment!) and our Apples start to look a little more like your Oranges.

It's a very different dynamic.

Creator of XinTwo - http://www.xintwo.com
The shortest path to FCP X mastery.


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Oliver Peters
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 14, 2017 at 12:42:27 pm

[Bill Davis] "Everything you saw about X at NAB was private, not Corporate dollars talking - the whole thing is is pretty astonishingly grass roots. Heck we didn't even KNOW we would be doing the LumaForge stuff until about 4 weeks prior to NAB!
I bet Adobe and AVID started working (and spending) for NAB 2018 a few days after we got back from last year."


I'm not trying to discount these efforts by any means. Kudos to all the Lumaforge & FCPworks folks involved. The point was more about the user base reaction. There was no Adobe-specific side-event at NAB to my knowledge. And yes, Avid dumps a lot of money into Connect. However, it was still interesting to see the amount of paid folks at Connect for a company and product line that supposedly is on a downward trajectory.

[Bill Davis] "You remove ALL that money for the big south hall booths, the monster banners wrapping the halls promoting stuff, and ARMIES of booth monkeys (a term of true endearment!) and our Apples start to look a little more like your Oranges. "

I think that would be fair if you weren't talking about Apple. Given their overwhelming mass marketing (versus Avid, Adobe, BMD) and brand recognition, I would say the playing field is pretty level, even if they are visibly present in the south hall.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Scott Witthaus
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 14, 2017 at 11:21:05 am

[Oliver Peters] "In the TV, film, and even commercial world, Avid dominance is still pretty strong - especially in the major markets."

They certainly have a loyal following but with the stock price at near historic lows, one can't say all is rosy in Avid-land (I still own Avid stock so I can bi**h about this). At least in my neck of the woods, Avid is a non-player. Barely gets a "participation award" in the market. I don't think you can reveal the heath of a company based on a Vegas rah-rah user-group meeting. Any company. Financial data tell the story.

Maybe Media Central? For that certain niche, maybe. Article on Motley Fool about that: https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/05/11/why-avid-technology-inc-stock-gai...

More on Q1 financials: https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2017-05-10/avid-technology-announc...

Avid went public for a reason, just like Quantel, and there are rules you need to play by, like it or not. They make good products so the investors in the company to get a return and revenues grow. Same with Adobe, same with Apple. Quantel, now private, can afford, and even revel, in being really really niche. Perhaps that would be a good future for Avid? Unknown, but it will be interesting to watch.

Scott Witthaus
Owner, 1708 Inc./Editorial
Managing Partner, Low Country Creative LLC
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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Oliver Peters
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 14, 2017 at 12:59:56 pm

[Scott Witthaus] "They certainly have a loyal following but with the stock price at near historic lows, one can't say all is rosy in Avid-land"

I wasn't talking about company health. I think Tim did a great job of explaining those issues. I was talking about the presence of the use of the applications. As editors, we focus on Media Composer, but I bet Pro Tools is pretty widely used in your market, too. And what about the TV news departments in your market? Newscutter or something else?

[Scott Witthaus] "Maybe Media Central? For that certain niche, maybe"

Well, I certainly agree that's more marketing BS than anything else. However, there is some substance there in the form of common APIs and so on.

[Scott Witthaus] "Avid went public for a reason, just like Quantel, and there are rules you need to play by, like it or not."

And it may now be time to go private again.

[Scott Witthaus] " Quantel, now private, can afford, and even revel, in being really really niche"

Well, to be clear, Quantel is owned by the same venture capital group that picked up Snell. SAM (Snell Advanced Media) is the new blend of both companies combined at the direction of the venture capita group, not by the management of one company or the other. An arranged marriage, if you will.

Ultimately it's a challenge for all companies in this space. The Foundry, Autodesk (although they also have a huge CAD CAM software part, which is bigger, I think, than Media & Entertainment), Grass Valley (now owned by Belden), PESA, and many others, face challenges as they try to find their footing in the new order of things.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Tim Wilson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 14, 2017 at 5:44:37 pm

[Oliver Peters] "I wasn't talking about company health. I think Tim did a great job of explaining those issues. I was talking about the presence of the use of the applications. As editors, we focus on Media Composer, but I bet Pro Tools is pretty widely used in your market, too. And what about the TV news departments in your market? Newscutter or something else?"

We in this space have largely slept on Avid's dominance in the newsrooms, which is not unlike their dominance in TV and film production, except on a global basis, rather than just inside a couple of cities.

Likewise sports. What Avid is doing there is absolutely insane. Even if you just watch sports, and aren't in that field, you should take a look. They're really way out front of what's possible.

And for THESE folks (news and sports), Media Central is a thing. An actual thing. For Media Composer, not necessarily a thing. ☺


[Oliver Peters] "[Scott Witthaus] " Quantel, now private, can afford, and even revel, in being really really niche"

Well, to be clear, Quantel is owned by the same venture capital group that picked up Snell. SAM (Snell Advanced Media) is the new blend of both companies combined at the direction of the venture capita group, not by the management of one company or the other. An arranged marriage, if you will.
"


And to be clear, SAM are not just reveling in being really, really niche. They're growing the business 20% a year. There's not a company on earth who wouldn't kill for that.

I think that they're potentially illuminative for Avid because Avid too is really, really niche! Editing, not niche. Hollywood (and Hollywood-like editing) is a niche. Sports is a niche. News is a niche. Pro audio is a niche. But even a combination of a LOT of niches may not necessarily scale up far enough for traditional metrics to play out in a way that broader markets expect.


[Scott Witthaus] "They certainly have a loyal following but with the stock price at near historic lows, one can't say all is rosy in Avid-land"

Exactly my point. Take stock out of the picture. NOW what's wrong with Avid? Nothing that can't be fixed.

Every company has issues related to customer satisfaction, pace of development, competition, etc etc etc -- and on every front, the majority of their customers feel the company is moving in the right direction.

Including on the issue of customer engagement! I mean, to Bill's point about Apples and Oranges -- here's a fundamental difference between the Supermeet and the Avid customer CONVENTION -- because that's really what it was. Avid is hosting advisory boards with customer-selected representatives from every major market the company serves. They're publicly taking input on feature requests, publishing the results, and holding themselves accountable for future outcomes. Apple sure ain't. That's not about money. That's about how the company values customer input or doesn't.

When I see a company that's being THAT accountable, pushing ahead in key markets with compelling new offerings, and a customer base that's energized, using any metric you care to come up with, THAT's something you can build a BUSINESS on.

One's ability to jump through the flaming hoops of oligarchy to appease the quarterly bloodlust of the market? Irrelevant to the ability to build a business on engaged customers. There's no need to play that game.

But hey, what do I know? Nothing. I sold my Avid stock when it was at $13. It had been the one exception to my diversification strategy of never investing in a sector I work in, so I don't have any skin in the game. And it would please me no end if the money truck backed up to the door of my friends there should the stock go back up to where I bought it at $49. 😂

But I'm a fan of the industry, and I see the benefits that have come to people like SAM and Blackmagic who refuse to play. And even though when everything else is said and done, I may end my careers (this is my sixth I think) having made more from investing than I did from my jobs, I'm also happy when people say, "Enough. The market is not the boss of me. We can do better than this."

Avid's customers are saying that Avid is doing better than the market says. Better to spend your time pleasing the people who are happy with you doing what you love than chasing the people who say you aren't good enough for them for reasons that aren't actually important to you.

It's the same advice I'd give my kids for their lives if I had kids who cared about my advice. 😎

Besides, if we were choosing NLEs by stock performance, we'd all be using Premiere Pro. It's a fine NLE, but that's a terrible reason to choose it.


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Bill Davis
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 14, 2017 at 7:00:32 pm

[Tim Wilson] "Avid is hosting advisory boards with customer-selected representatives from every major market the company serves. They're publicly taking input on feature requests, publishing the results, and holding themselves accountable for future outcomes. Apple sure ain't. That's not about money. That's about how the company values customer input or doesn't."

Could not agree more with Tim here in his basic observation.

If you think progress in the next decades will come largely from "listening to your customers" - you need to bet this way. Any thing else is silly.

OTOH, if you believe (as I do) that the innovations that will actually move this industry l farther forward will NOT necessarily come from your customers expectations - you need to look elsewhere.

My observation is that when you're in an incredibly fast evolving arena - letting your customers drive your innovation agenda is far more likely to stifle your progress rather than accelerate it.

Not because your customers are not smart or experienced, but because they increasingly live, work and (quite reasonably) think near the end of a constantly widening Knowledge Gap.

By the time most of us "customers" get a clue about the viability of A technical capability , there's likely been someone working on that in a lab for YEARS.

So our VISION of what's possible increasingly lags way behind what is ACTUALLY possible.

And when companies ask "what do you want?" It's harder and harder or those at the END of the development tail to even know what it's reasonable to ask for.

If production was Medicine - this would be a little like holding focus groups to ask patients which therapies they feel might be effective for their treatment - over trusting a highly curated group of actual experts at the Mayo Clinic to do a better job of knowing the medical literature and keeping up with the latest techniques in order to help you develop your treatment strategies.

Yes there are areas of life where customer focused surveys do GREAT things for making systems function way better.

But there are also areas where in order to make serious advances you need superior professional expertise that's NOT generally found in broader survey populations.

You may feel survey-driven advancement is plenty to develop the tools of the future.

I just don't - based largely on the way all these tools have developed over the past 30 years.

We'll see who's right over time.

Creator of XinTwo - http://www.xintwo.com
The shortest path to FCP X mastery.


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Tim Wilson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 14, 2017 at 8:26:00 pm
Last Edited By Tim Wilson on Jun 14, 2017 at 8:27:15 pm

[Bill Davis] "You may feel survey-driven advancement is plenty to develop the tools of the future.

I just don't - based largely on the way all these tools have developed over the past 30 years."


You're positing this, as Apple does, as an either/or. Sorry, Bill, that's nonsense. Companies can do both. Avid does both, as do many other companies.

I assume you believe that such a thing is possible, yes? Or would it actively bother you if Apple were to allow its customers to select a group of customers who'd work with Apple to implement some specific user-based suggestions? And if Apple were to publish the results of customer requests, and hold themselves to implementing them?

Do you think that would create an environment somehow inimical to industry-shaking innovation? "Thanks for asking, Apple, but my input will only grind your development to a halt, or send it down blind alleys. Better not to ask any of us. Keep doing what you're doing. I'd rather just be surprised."

I've certainly witnessed a couple of cycles of this myself. One example I can tell you about was the development of Avid DNxHD, the predecessor to ProRes. That didn't come from the minds of customers. That came from Avid, . I sat in rooms where Avid's then-CTO made pitches to studio execs, watching them scratch their heads until the lightbulb came on.

I was merely the monkey who went on the road to show it to people. What is it? An intermediate codec? We already have that. I want uncompressed! Extra steps I don't need. On and on. People didn't want it. I SOLD it to them. It finally caught on, and when it did, it became huge.

You know what also became huge? DNxHD 36 in particular -- far lower res than it had ever occurred to Avid to make available, but because the codec is so robust, it still looks fantastic. That was a customer-driven resolution that's arguably the most popular format for post, even if it's not typically part of the acquisition equation.

I'm not meaning to oversell my insider-ness. Like I said, my role on the team was "monkey". And as hard as I worked to sell this workflow, it STILL took Apple a few years to sell the all-but identical (and for workflow, EXACTLY identical) DNxHD after its first arrival 4 years later.

I'm asking, though, because I'm curious. Are you seriously saying that you don't think Apple can both hold itself accountable to a handful of customer feature requests and still innovate?

Because ironically enough, I think that the launch of FCPX shows that Apple can easily do both if they wanted to. A huge part of what I think made the launch of FCPX flawless -- and for the record, I believe that I am the one and only person here to say it was FLAWLESS in every single particular; you've certainly fought me on this every time I've brought it up -- is that they KNEW they launched it before it was ready for the same kinds of professional production that FCP Legacy customers expected, SAID that it was missing key features, and gave a roadmap for when those key features would arrive.

See? Accountability. It can be done.

At the same time, I absolutely believe companies have a responsibility to act in their own longer term interests, even when it provides short-term disasters for customers. Apple has certainly built itself by burning its own customer base to the ground repeatedly, and they've proven that it works. I think that X was probably the least painful for Apple in their history.

But I'm genuinely curious if you're telling me that you'd rather not have Apple take advice from a customer-selected group of advisors who were bringing Apple a list similar to the one that the CPUG network puts together, and having Apple publicly respond with their take on the requests with a prioritized plan for addressing them. Is that so objectionable to you?


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Bill Davis
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 14, 2017 at 10:50:02 pm
Last Edited By Bill Davis on Jun 14, 2017 at 10:51:07 pm

[Tim Wilson] "But I'm genuinely curious if you're telling me that you'd rather not have Apple take advice from a customer-selected group of advisors who were bringing Apple a list similar to the one that the CPUG network puts together, and having Apple publicly respond with their take on the requests with a prioritized plan for addressing them. Is that so objectionable to you?"

But Tim, they already DO that!

Apple has a public feedback system built directly into the software.



There are also plenty of professional public facing communications idioms like Richard Taylors FCP X Feature Request lists - that I know Apple tracks. There are a WIDE range of public facing FaceBook groups, both public and private, amateur, intermediate and professional where Apple watches and gains insights into what their actual customers are saying. I'm dead sure they track Twitter feeds with X hashtags and Instagram pastings as well.

With JUST this system in place, the software has vastly improved and evolved RAPIDLY and has contributed highly capable and UNIQUE thinking to digital video editing. And more critical, the MAJORITY of what's been added is valuable only to WORKING editors, not the low end of the market.

So I'd argue that this demonstrates an effective mechanism for customer feedback at ALL levels is already in place.

So what's missing except perhaps a system that excludes SPECIFIC types of users who feel THEY should have more sway. And to that idea, I'd respond "What have they done to EARN a place at the table?" Have they engaged in thoughtful discussions of FACTS? Or have they just been more voices pissing on everything Apple has tried to do with FCP X.? If YOU were on the Apple engineering team - would you rather listen to the voices that have at least demonstrated understanding of how the thing you're building is supposed to work? Or conference tables of those who barely glanced at it and rejected it out of hand?

But traditionally, hey HAVE NOT grown Apple on over-reliance on customer "wants surveys" in the product evolution area - they seem to instead just create and send out what they think is cool, then obsessively track "customer satisfaction" to see if they're on track. So far it's worked for them without paying too much fealty to the voices in the industry that might have a bit much vested interest in maintaining some type of status quo.

Maybe it's an echo of Gil Amelio trying to turn the Mac into just another mass marketed PC? But anything that hints of that approach seems to cause Apple to spasm a bit.

They've built this massive platform on a pretty solid foundation of contrarianism in a lot of areas. Not all, but more than most companies that have gone this far this fast. And somehow, they manage to continue maintaining and growing it - even tho they inarguably ARE the status quo on many areas.

I'm just LOATH push them toward acting more and more LIKE an industry leader - particularly in the area of the insufferable tactic (to me) of surveying the same old "industry leaders" in order to suss out what those folks might want in an NLE.

Those folks already HAVE what they need. And the budgets to buy it in truckloads.

It's OK to have some alternatives.

My 2 cents.

Creator of XinTwo - http://www.xintwo.com
The shortest path to FCP X mastery.


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Scott Witthaus
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 14, 2017 at 10:56:25 pm

[Tim Wilson] "Take stock out of the picture. NOW what's wrong with Avid? Nothing that can't be fixed.
"


You can't. The company runs on the price of the stock. You just can't do that.



[Tim Wilson] "They're publicly taking input on feature requests, publishing the results, and holding themselves accountable for future outcomes. Apple sure ain't. That's not about money."

Pardon my french, but this is bulls**t. This is PR. It's about money. You think Louie Hernandez is doing this for the good of Avid editors in LA? No way. He is in it for the stock price (btw, he sold about 9,000 shares recently). It's rosy to say that it's all about customer engagement, but it's not, It's about ROI for the investors.



[Tim Wilson] "Avid is hosting advisory boards with customer-selected representatives from every major market the company serves."

If you talk to some of those members, this too is not as rosy as it seems.

[Tim Wilson] "having made more from investing than"

Excellent! Avid was one?

[Tim Wilson] "Besides, if we were choosing NLEs by stock performance, we'd all be using Premiere Pro."

I never said that. I was referring to Olivers statement about Adobe in a financial magazine. Pick an NLE that works and hope the company sticks with it.

[Tim Wilson] "Avid's customers are saying that Avid is doing better than the market says."

As well they should and hope but that does not mean alot if the numbers aren't there. The real deal is in the numbers.

Scott Witthaus
Owner, 1708 Inc./Editorial
Managing Partner, Low Country Creative LLC
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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Tim Wilson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 15, 2017 at 12:02:27 am

[Scott Witthaus] "You can't. The company runs on the price of the stock. You just can't do that."

The only way you can do it is if you get out of the market. It can be done. Companies do it every day.

That really is my point. Other problems that you allude to -- and that I know exist, and was one of the guys on the front lines hearing about them if you'll recall 😎 -- are much more easily surmountable if Avid isn't also having to also carry the burden of the market's expectations.

[Scott Witthaus] "It's rosy to say that it's all about customer engagement, but it's not, It's about ROI for the investors."

Exactly my point. If you sell stock as a publicly held company, the stockholders are both your true boss and your biggest customer. The dynamic changes when all you have to do is deliver products to ACTUAL customers. Ask SAM. Ask Grant.

The problem I see is that the public doesn't really understand what Avid is doing. Heck, we're not the public, and with obvious exceptions like you, I don't get the impression that most folks here see past the NLE wars.


[Scott Witthaus] "[Tim Wilson] "having made more from investing than"

Excellent! Avid was one?"


Nononono. LOL I had a few shares, but I took a bath. Bought at $49, peaked at $66, but like I said, I sold it at $13. I could have kept holding it, but even though it was just a few shares, I was ready to shift it to something that would make me money. I believe in the company (obviously), but I prefer my money to make money for me.

I really do feel strongly about diversification, and it was only because I was so excited by what was happening at Avid that I broke my rule about never investing in a sector I work in. One of my frustrations about stock in general (I'm all about funds) is that during my 3 years there, sales AND profit more than doubled....but the stock halved.

Why? I have no idea. The market was "sure" something was amiss, and if they keep saying it long enough, it becomes true. To me, a company whose sales, profit, and margin are all increasing seems like they should be a good investment, right? Well, the only reason it wasn't is because a bunch of oligarchs kept insisting it wasn't, until they were finally right. The wisdom of the market for ya.

And this isn't just Avid. Almost ANY individual company, it seems to be the rule these days to have huge gaps between my old-school grasp of fundamentals and high performing stocks. I buy funds to blunt the impact of any small group of these maniacs across the largest possible pool of maniacs. I don't trust any of them as far as I can throw them, but fellas, thanks for all the fish. 😂

But otherwise, within this industry, I can't really say anything much about stocks, because I honestly don't watch too closely. Tying 100% of my current income AND 100% of my future income to the same narrow set of market forces just doesn't appeal to me. The world's an interesting place, and I like paying attention to a wider swath of it now and again.

(btw, I don't mean to suggest that I'm the wizard here. All of our best investments have come from my wife. That she chose me casts some shade on her credibility, I know, but the numbers are the numbers.)


[Scott Witthaus] "If you talk to some of those members, this too is not as rosy as it seems. "

Oh but I do, and I agree. Believe me, folks who are unhappy with Avid have always made a beeline to me. 😂 To this very day. Of COURSE Avid needs to do some stuff better. Everyone needs to do better.

*I* need to do better. I'd give myself a B- for how well I'm managing the COW. This is life in the service business. It's hard, even for the best of the best.

(Did I just call myself the best of the best? I haven't decided yet. 😁)

My point was simply, ANY company would have walked through Avid's NAB customer convention -- Apple included -- and said, "Yep, I'd be okay if my customers were at this balance of satisfaction and engagement." They might want more and better, as I'm sure Avid did and does, but this to me was one of the biggest stories of the show, and of 2017 in general. This idea that Avid is close to the abyss because of the stock price isn't a full enough picture.

And to the point that Oliver and I have been making about the broader part of Avid in the context of the ENTIRETY of professional media production -- sports, news, storage, scalable services, audio post, live sound, etc. -- it's hard to find a cylinder they're not firing on, or a group of customers anywhere, again including Apple, that's more engaged across the board. They're getting this right.

You're right to not let me imply that that's the whole picture, or even the only important part of the picture. But it's a non-trivial part of it, and has far more to do with what to expect as a customer or potential customer of one of the company's products or services than the stock price does.


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Richard Herd
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 13, 2017 at 3:31:23 pm

I keep hoping for a storage solution from Blackmagic.


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Dennis Radeke
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Aug 17, 2017 at 10:54:38 pm

[Scott Witthaus] "Can I get Adobe Stock as a standalone contract for my school (Dennis, can you help here?)?"

Hey Scott,

Sadly, I hardly ever get the opportunity to post here anymore as I don't want to ever be thought of as spamming too far off topic. I found this by doing some keyword searches - something I do every day in my new role.

To answer you question - Yes, you can, though for EDU facilities, that wouldn't make sense. I think we're connected on LinkedIn - please message me there and I would be happy to email or speak with you.

To get a TINY bit on Stock, I am very excited about our direction. We have millions of clips and we have some new content that is being developed. You can access it though the CC Libaries panel - check it out! For those that might be interested, please check this link for opportunities to develop motion graphics for Adobe.

Love and miss this community, but we're still connected!

Dennis


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Scott Witthaus
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Aug 18, 2017 at 10:45:19 am

Hey Dennis -

Will reach out on LinkedIn and share my thoughts. Thanks.

Scott

Scott Witthaus
Owner, 1708 Inc./Editorial
Managing Partner, Low Country Creative LLC
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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andy patterson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 9:21:25 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "I'm just asking you to tell me what Adobe product was for the little guy years ago when you say Adobe cared about the little guy."

Were Premiere and FCP not an inexpensive alternative to Avid MC and Media 100 back in the day? Premiere was 100% free more often than not back in the day but I think some legal issues stop Adobe form bundling it with just about every Video Capture card on the market. You could buy Premiere Pro and get Encore, Media Encoder and Adobe Bridge for like $699.99. You could buy Premiere Pro 1.0 and use until you opted to upgrade to 1.5 or wait until 3.0 to upgrade if you don't need the new features or need the updates. The choice was yours. I have been using Premiere since Premiere 5.0. Not Premiere Pro 5.0. Fast/Pinnacle/Avid's Liquid would probably be my NLE of choice if Avid did not EOL it. Don't get me wrong I used to like Adobe's CS paradigm. I used to give them praise.


[Andrew Kimery] "Is Premiere Elements today not a good option for the little guy? If the little guy is only concerned about price then free DR and free Media100 beat everything. They beat full price DR. They beat FCP X. They beat Adobe. They beat Avid. They beat Vegas. They beat anything that costs money (not matter how much or how little money)."

I am hip to Premiere Pro elements but you don't see FCPX Elements or DR Elements. Also I have never said they have to have free software. I myself as well as many other think the CC paradigm could be revamped and made more affordable if you only use 2 or 3 programs.

[Andrew Kimery] "Maybe they use Adobe products at work and make tutorials for Adobe products in their free time? Maybe they make movies with their friends who use Adobe products so they do too in order to make collaboration easier? Maybe they chose it because that's what the filmmakers they follow us? Maybe you could find actual hobbyists themselves and ask?"

Some are going to use the CC. As far as asking a hobbyist or blogger many of them will post in a video that they switched form Premiere Pro to FCPX. If FCPX is less expensive and works better on their MacBook Pro how can you blame them?


[Andrew Kimery] "[andy patterson] "Will Google Docs make MS Office Obsolete? Probably not. Can some people get by with Google Docs. Probably. "


So MS Office can still be competitive even though it costs way more money than Google Docs? It's almost as if a product's value can be important than its price. I agree."



CC does offer industry standard for graphic design but what if someone only wants Premiere Pro and AE? FCPX and Motion might fill the gap for some people. As stated by many others Adobe could offer any two programs for $9.99 a month, any five programs for $19.99 a month or any 10 Programs for $30.00 a month. For some the integration between 3 or 4 Adobe products would be worth the price. Some would still opt for the free version of DR.


[Andrew Kimery] "[andy patterson] "On the flip side the bloggers who have stopped the CC subscription always mention FCPX is less expensive and does the job. "

So Apple should make FCP X free so they can compete with free DR?"


Do you want an answer or is that rhetorical? FCPX, Avid Media Composer, DR and Premiere Pro could all be obsolete one day and replaced by Halo Edit 1.0, the world first Hologram based Editing System. As I have stated nobody knows what the future holds. I am saying without the CC paradigm some blogger would have stuck with Premiere Pro.

$600.00 per year is $3000.00 in five years or $6000.00 in ten years. That can buy a lot of audio gear. For a business it is a non issue but most hobbyist must decide with their wallet to a certain extent. Having said that Adobe has some serious competition and even I like what I see from the competition.


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andy patterson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 8:41:08 pm

[Bob Zelin] "I take great exception to this statement. I am an amateur musician, and I know lots of amateur musicians. And I see plenty of kids, including POOR kids, that play guitar, drums, etc. And kids into EDM with DJ equipment. That do it for a hobby, do it for fun. And these "toys" cost a lot more than $49.99. If you are serious about your hobby, you find the money to get your toys. If you love making videos, you find that 50 bucks. And when you own DR, or Media Composer First, or Lightworks, or Media 100, or an old copy of FCP 7 that someone gave you, you still need a computer, you still need drive space, and that costs more than 50 bucks."

I agree but it is a straw-man because of competition they might opt for an Epiphone over a Les Paul. Yes a young person might get a free Mac Pro form 2010 with FCP7 given to them and use it until they can get something better. By not buying into the CC they may in fact be able to opt for DR and also get the Les Paul to make their own music videos. What I am saying is Premiere Pro is expensive for the average blogger compared to FCPX and DR. Can someone please post a counter argument that address that issue rather than posting a straw-man that has nothing to do with my comments.


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Oliver Peters
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 4:57:51 pm

[Ricardo Marty] "Would like to know what makes quantel super high-end"

Up to real-time 8K on high-performance hardware.

https://post.s-a-m.com/?catalog=24&product=173

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Tim Wilson
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 6:05:34 pm

[Oliver Peters] "Up to real-time 8K on high-performance hardware.
"


8K HDR RAW no less, with the toolsets necessary for high-end VFX feature film workflows that we only rarely touch on in this forum, but are daily conversations in say, our Resolve forum. There's really no difference at all between high-end and low-end editorial toolsets. None worth talking about. But for finishing and conform, HUGE differences, even though they're not the kind of thing that shows up on spec sheets.

Plus the things that high-end pro vendors always provide, like 24-7 support, overnight parts replacement, etc etc.


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Oliver Peters
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 7:12:32 pm

[Tim Wilson] "8K HDR RAW no less, with the toolsets necessary for high-end VFX feature film workflows that we only rarely touch on in this forum, but are daily conversations in say, our Resolve forum. "

It's ironic that Michael Cioni, who has over the years been closely associated with Apple products and FCPX, thanks to his various presentations, makes his living through LightIron. That company got its start on Quantel gear - and continues with it - and workflows for the high end film community. In the end, when you absolutely need to get the job done...

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Bill Davis
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 8:24:13 pm

[Oliver Peters] "That company got its start on Quantel gear - and continues with it - and workflows for the high end film community. In the end, when you absolutely need to get the job done..."

Yep, Pablo Rio FTW.

That said, when I interviewed the Quantel guys at NAB a few years ago, the cards you needed to instal to get Rio to actually function were about $10,000 apiece - and you needed more than one IIRC.

Those same cards - a year and a half later, were worth a fraction of that - having been vastly outpaced by newer models.

So make sure your depreciation schedules are in order.

Definitely a deep deep pocket players game there.

; )

Creator of XinTwo - http://www.xintwo.com
The shortest path to FCP X mastery.


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Oliver Peters
Re: Orlando Post Pros' NAB Recap
on Jun 10, 2017 at 4:51:51 pm

[Mark Raudonis] "Thanks for posting this"

You're welcome. We're just the redneck cuzzins of Editors' Lounge ☺

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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