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Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!

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Don Walker
Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 23, 2015 at 11:33:14 pm

I was at Best Buy this morning, helping a former client (and friend of mine) as he was deciding which Mac to buy. He was making a long anticipated jump to Apple from PC. When he was my client, I did all of his commercials, and set up and produced his video ministry on his website. He was very open about using the Mac to produce programs for his church, and website, and I was ok with that.

But it's when he turned to me, and started talking about how he was doing a commercial for a local taxidermist that he shot and edited on his iPhone that my blood run cold. If we are to the point that people will accept as commercially viable. productions that are shot and edited on an iPhone, what is there left for the small time professional to do? I will admit this was the same feeling I had at the '91 or '92 NAB when I (the CMX driving, ADO manipulating, professional) saw Kiki Stockhammer (sp?) showing off the Video Toaster.

Is anybody seeing this mind set, translating into real lost money?

don walker
texarkana, texas

John 3:16


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Craig Seeman
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 24, 2015 at 12:33:51 am

Tangerine shot on iPhone 5S
http://nofilmschool.com/2015/07/tangerine-sundance-iphone-5s-sean-baker-rad...
IMDB tech specs
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3824458/technical?ref_=tt_dt_spec
Nominations and Awards
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3824458/awards?ref_=tt_awd

Of course there are limitation shooting on an iPhone but if a job can live within those limitations...
Keep in mind not everyone wants to live within those limitations.



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Mark Raudonis
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 24, 2015 at 12:44:02 am

Bob Zelin is ALWAYS right!



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David Roth Weiss
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 24, 2015 at 12:50:15 am
Last Edited By David Roth Weiss on Dec 24, 2015 at 12:51:28 am

The other day I was walking my dog, when I spotted an eight-year old child in his garage, doing a stand-up pitch to camera in front of a green screen. He setup the lights, the camera, the mic, and was doing the pitch as well, without any help. When I asked what he was pitching, he told me he was pitching his first completed feature film to potential distributors. Does this tell you anything about the state of our industry?

David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist & Workflow Consultant
David Weiss Productions
Los Angeles


David is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.


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Craig Alan
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 24, 2015 at 1:24:45 am

Just the same, there is more professional productions then ever before. In the old days, there was no easy way to learn production unless you had connections, anyone who knew how to do it and had access to the equipment could get gigs even if they didn't have an artistic bone in their head and were rude besides. Most families owned a decent still camera. Being able to edit the stills easily has been around now for a while. Just the same, people make a living as photographers.

I've had any number of plumbers rip me off. Cause its not something I feel comfortable with and I need to trust them. Is that a good thing?

Bottom line, it's the content that matters because pretty decent quality is much more accessible. However, I wonder if that kid's video had usable audio. One man bands don't usually fly too high and once you need a crew than the for free status of the non pros starts to fall apart as soon as you need to make a living at something. Good production is just too time consuming. If that Kid made a decent feature length movie that his peers are willing to pay for then good for him. If its for free then sooner or later when they are adults they'll have to make a living and most likely will want to watch movies shot by pros.

I don't think any one here lost a gig cause that kid shot it himself.

Mac Pro, macbook pro, Imacs (i7); Canon 5D Mark III/70D, Panasonic AG-HPX170/AG-HPX250P, Canon HV40, Sony Z7U/VX2000/PD170; FCP 6 certified; FCP X write professionally for a variety of media; teach video production in L.A.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 24, 2015 at 2:09:07 am

Meh.

A dozen other industries have already gone through this and working pros survived.

Sure, if someone sucks and relies on scarcity of gear to make a living they are boned but everyone else still has a fighting chance as long as they continue to pay attention to what's going on around them. If an 8yr old or a computer program or a hamster on a wheel can put out a product that is comparable to yours, then, yes, it is probably time to do some self evaluation. ;)


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Craig Alan
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 24, 2015 at 2:17:40 am

Exactly. People being educated on a consumer level is a good thing. People make a living as writers too. But most folk can write and with computers they are as good as the touch typists of old and spell check takes care of most of the misspellings.

Mac Pro, macbook pro, Imacs (i7); Canon 5D Mark III/70D, Panasonic AG-HPX170/AG-HPX250P, Canon HV40, Sony Z7U/VX2000/PD170; FCP 6 certified; FCP X write professionally for a variety of media; teach video production in L.A.


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Douglas K. Dempsey
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 24, 2015 at 4:31:10 am

Haha, reminds me of the old William Goldman story from "Adventures in the Screen Trade," comparing the unlikelihood of anyone messing with the cinematographer ... "Nobody knows optics, physics, lighting" to the all-too-familiar contributions to the screenplay ... "EVERYBODY knows the alphabet!"

Doug D


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John Rofrano
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 24, 2015 at 6:08:59 am
Last Edited By John Rofrano on Dec 24, 2015 at 1:36:28 pm

Almost anyone can use a word processor... but not many people can write a best selling novel!

Don't get scared because almost anyone can own and operate a good quality camera and use an NLE... because they still need creativity and talent!

Apparently, most kids that own an iPhone don't know that you're supposed to hold it horizontally to shoot video!!! :-D (I wouldn't get too worried)

Seriously, I think what's happening is awesome! When I was a young musician, many moons ago, I wish that I could afford a multi-track tape recorder to record my musical ideas. I use to use two cassette decks (one of which I had to borrow from a friend) and record from one to the other. The results after a few bounces had so much tape hiss and warble that it was almost unusable. My ability to create was limited by the primitive tools that I could afford. Today, that isn't the case for young musicians or film makers. High quality tools are easily obtainable and that's a good thing because then you are limited only by your creative talent... (but you still need talent!)

Don't confuse Talent with Knowledge! I believe what Bob Zelin was referring to is that it takes a lot less knowledge to make good video these days. The cameras are easier to operate and less expensive and the software is a lot smarter so that YOU don't have to be... but at the end of the day it's all about holding the camera steady, getting good audio, and telling a compelling story and THAT still takes talent.

I believe a lot of editors are upset that some skills that took them a long time to acquire are no longer needed. Everything you learned about properly conforming footage isn't needed when you can drop 60i HDV, 24p iPhone, and 60p GoPro footage on the same timeline without preparing them first. Or the hours that it took to create an animated lower third, is now a drag-n-drop Motion template. Or pulling a good chroma key doesn't even require good lighting anymore because the software is so good that an 8 year old can pull a good key in his garage.

Perhaps it's just time for the old dogs to learn some new tricks and stay ahead of the kiddies. ;-)

As the bar to entry gets lower... we all need to step up our game to remain competitive... and that's a good thing.

In a way, Bob is right. The end IS near. The end of what is acceptable for requiring a professional to do the work. Back in the day, management had secretaries to type their letters because managers didn't know how to type. Today, everyone types their own emails. Are our emails as formal as those old letters use to be? Not by a long shot! Does anyone care? No, not at all! We may look back on these times as "back in the day when everyone needed a video editor to create their videos... now everyone creates their own videos". Just like formal letters, what is acceptable video will change. But telling a great story with pictures, just like writing a great novel, will still require talent.

That's called "progress".

~jr

http://www.johnrofrano.com
http://www.vasst.com



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Craig Alan
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 24, 2015 at 6:19:27 pm

It's harder to get started in this field ... professionally. There is more competition and you need to offer something beyond what your clients can do for themselves or get someone to do for free.
But it's easier to get started in this field because the information is available on the internet and the equipment is reasonably affordable (though that's relative - I know many talented artists that can't afford to set up shop).
But clients come around. For example, every company out there wants an on-line presence. They usually turn in-house to find someone to do it for free, save whatever that person can talk them into buying in terms of gear. More times than not this fails. It is still not easy to produce a really good multi-media presentation that delivers the message. Never mind one that not only delivers the message but does so with creativity and stands out from the crowd.

It's Gotta be the Shoes!

It's also pretty hard to put together a team of people to shoot a movie without a budget. Free talent flakes.

But these are really exciting times. Distribution was always the ruling class's ace in the hole.

Not no more.

You got talent ... prove it.

Every writer in the era when every one knew the alphabet had to give away their ideas for free in order to get gigs down the road. This applies now for all artistic fields. That's assuming Hollywood is your objective. But its wide open now and lots of ways to generate income in this field.

Mac Pro, macbook pro, Imacs (i7); Canon 5D Mark III/70D, Panasonic AG-HPX170/AG-HPX250P, Canon HV40, Sony Z7U/VX2000/PD170; FCP 6 certified; FCP X write professionally for a variety of media; teach video production in L.A.


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Rich Rubasch
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 24, 2015 at 7:59:36 pm

This is a craft industry with a huge factor of service thrown in.
You have to be talented, sure, but you also have to be responsive.

One thing the tools we have now provide (GPU processing, shoot and edit camera media without realtime capturing, advanced plugins for a myriad of effects) is a much faster pipeline in our workflows. So in skilled hands and a well thought out workflow (i.e. Bob Zelin) you can deliver great productions in less time. This takes into consideration that you are editing at the same speed, or in the case of Bill Davis, twice as fast as the rest of us. (couldn't resist Bill...all in fun.)

The reason agencies work with us is that we put the entire production together and know where the challenges might be because of our experience. This means day of shoot everything has been thought out and we have contingencies in place. We have had 10 different soap dishes and 7 different trash cans because we weren't sure exactly what the client might want. We know if two cameras are necessary (and how it will affect post schedules) and if one camera can work (again considering the post workflow). Audio and makeup are never overlooked.

Then we have our own creative minds to bring our own special something to a production that the client wasn't expecting. Do they always work? Not always, but the fact that we thought of it and brought it to the production is usually recognized and applauded and might just be the thing that secures that next job.

I don't view our jobs as projects with a budget and a timeline...they are each original creations with unique challenges that affect the many roles working on a production all the way thru post. Having that kind of experience with many different types of projects in the can allow us to estimate accurately, make money, and keep delivering on the promise of meeting the deadlines and expectations.

I promise you, an 8 year old cannot do all that.

Rich Rubasch
Tilt Media Inc.
Video Production, Post, Studio Sound Stage
Founder/President/Editor/Designer/Animator
http://www.tiltmedia.com


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 24, 2015 at 8:37:10 pm

Let's end this discussion on a positive note: every piece of equipment which can be used in a creative endevour of any sort, from cameras, to keyboards, to tubes of paint, should have a warning label on the packaging:

TALENT NOT INCLUDED!

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Bill Davis
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 24, 2015 at 10:58:39 pm

[Rich Rubasch] "This takes into consideration that you are editing at the same speed, or in the case of Bill Davis, twice as fast as the rest of us. (couldn't resist Bill...all in fun.)"

No offense whatsoever, Rich.

Oddly getting actual editing work done HAS been at least twice as fast lately. I've had a super busy December what with two of my largest corporate clients prepping for "rally the troops" meetings in early January.

In the past, I would have hunkered down and worked through the holidays. This year, I'm taking today and tomorrow TOTALLY off - plus have blocked out time to hang out with my out of town relatives next week. I I suspect my end of the year will be quite a bit calmer this time around - largely because the one thing that's indisputable about X is that if you're done your asset management and keywording properly —and have your magnetic primary well tuned — revising and tuning up existing work is often laughably fast.

I really think it's an overall faster world out there in all areas. As a tiny example, on December 16th I ordered a 300lb fire safe with a data port for hard drive protection for my office. Costco said it would take 4-6 weeks for delivery. It arrived Tuesday. Not 6 weeks - barely 6 DAYS. In the middle of the holidays.

And I'm still kinda freaked about ordering something on Amazon at 10am - and having the driver show up with it just after Noon on the same day.

THAT's change for you.

And so it goes.

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


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Don Walker
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 25, 2015 at 12:49:57 am

[John Rofrano] "Perhaps it's just time for the old dogs to learn some new tricks and stay ahead of the kiddies. ;-)"

It would be really interesting to know what the "New Tricks" that will be the norm in 10 years are.

I wrote the original post somewhat tongue and cheek, but the whole Best Buy episode did give me a wake up call. Time to evaluate what your giving your clients to make sure that a Cowboy Preacher with an iPhone can't give the same quality of product that your putting out with your Mac Pro and $5000 camera.

I did leave Best Buy yesterday, and go home a complete an all day Motion / FCPX edit of a show open for a cooking show pilot I shot and posted. The preacher and the 8 yr. old probably couldn't do that.

don walker
texarkana, texas

John 3:16


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 25, 2015 at 5:40:19 am

[Don Walker] "Time to evaluate what your giving your clients to make sure that a Cowboy Preacher with an iPhone can't give the same quality of product that your putting out with your Mac Pro and $5000 camera. "

Conversely, a Cowboy Preacher might be be just fine with the results an iPhone can give. Just because you make a better product doesn't mean the customer necessary wants to pay for a better product. Five star restaurants exist and so does McDonald's. Speaking of food analogies, people have had the ability to grown and/or prepare their own meals at home for centuries yet there is still a very large demand for prepackaged food, restaurants (of all sizes), frozen dinners, etc.,.


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Robin S. Kurz
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Jan 3, 2016 at 5:56:54 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "Conversely, a Cowboy Preacher might be be just fine with the results an iPhone can give."

Or even a company like Bentley? Even after it was shot on an iPhone and even assembled on an iPad.







Clearly little shame in that.

- RK

____________________________________________________
Deutsch? Hier gibt es ein umfassendes FCP X Training für dich!


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Jan 3, 2016 at 6:25:46 pm

[Robin S. Kurz] "Or even a company like Bentley? Even after it was shot on an iPhone and even assembled on an iPad."

Previously discussed here:

https://forums.creativecow.net/thread/335/69100#69100

and here:

https://forums.creativecow.net/thread/335/80950#80950


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Robin S. Kurz
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Jan 3, 2016 at 6:49:45 pm
Last Edited By Robin S. Kurz on Jan 3, 2016 at 7:06:06 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "Previously discussed"

Um, yeah... so? I'm aware that the "pro" crowd stands in disgusted disbelief, yes. :D The whole point is that it's being done, and not just by eight year olds and it's very much "commercially viable". Whether someone has their technical gripes with it or not. Or would an Alexa et al somehow have changed any of it to the point of any true relevance? Or are maybe just the Alexa owners miffed that they're not getting a job, since hey, they're technically so much better? As if, somehow, that's the only thing that counted?

Horses for courses.

- RK


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John Rofrano
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 26, 2015 at 1:17:57 pm

[Don Walker] "I did leave Best Buy yesterday, and go home a complete an all day Motion / FCPX edit of a show open for a cooking show pilot I shot and posted. The preacher and the 8 yr. old probably couldn't do that."
Exactly! There is a huge difference between doing creative work for yourself and doing work for a client. With all the drag-n-drop animated motion graphics that FCP X comes with, it may look like anyone can produce professional work, but when a client sees it and says, "can you make that graphics move a little slower and come in from the left more" is where we separate "then men from the boys" because a seasoned editor will know how to go in and tweak that motion template and the kid who only knows how to drag-n-drop will be totally lost.

It's all fun and games until the client wants it tweaked! ;-)

~jr

http://www.johnrofrano.com
http://www.vasst.com



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Tony West
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 26, 2015 at 4:26:05 pm

There have been some great points made here on this topic, but I would just say that production even in it's simplest form can still be costly and out of the reach of most people.

It all comes down to how demanding your client is. If they are used to someone providing them with all the latest toys to get what they want and someone comes in without those tools it's not going to go well for them.

As we have talked about before, I find myself showing up to many jobs with 2 cameras. One for larger sensor shots and one that I can zoom for run and gun shots. So while cameras are cheaper these days, you end up needing two of them : )

Even if the client wants you to do a simple pan, you need a tripod with a decent fluid head. That cost money. Gone are the days where you could just lock the camera off on a shot.

The look these days is all movement.

A slider by itself cost, but if you want to tilt the camera up then guess what, you need to buy another fluid head to go on that. You have to buy a costume built tripod to get it up off the ground if you are going to shoot stuff at various heights. That cost extra money.

The reality is, just doing a simple slider shot of a guy sharpening skates cost more than many can spend.


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Bill Davis
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 27, 2015 at 4:41:37 am

And then a friend sends you a link like this. Gimbals in the hands of teenagers. And folks with more passion then budget gives the kids the means to change everything again. (Thanks Deyson Ortiz.)







And so it goes.

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


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Tony West
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 27, 2015 at 7:08:02 am

[Bill Davis] "And folks with more passion then budget "

That's a cool video, but I don't know about no budget. That Defy cost like 2 grand. Not really cheap.

Even if you spent money on that you still need a good tripod for interviews (more money)
you still need lights (more money) you need sound (more money)

Unless all you are ever going to do is chase some guy around like that : )

What I see young people I work with doing is trying to build their own stabilizers (that don't work very well) because they can't afford a system like that.


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John Rofrano
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 27, 2015 at 5:11:13 pm
Last Edited By John Rofrano on Dec 27, 2015 at 5:49:59 pm

[Tony West] "What I see young people I work with doing is trying to build their own stabilizers (that don't work very well) because they can't afford a system like that."
Yea, the other day my son came home and was so proud to show me that he and his friend had built a camera stabilizer out of PBC pipe by watching a Youtube video... I didn't have the heart to tell him that I have an original Merlin Steadicam in the basement that he could have borrowed. (...well, he never asked) :-D

~jr

http://www.johnrofrano.com
http://www.vasst.com



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Tony West
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 28, 2015 at 4:33:53 am

[John Rofrano] " I didn't have the heart to tell him that I have an original Merlin Steadicam in the basement that he could have borrowed. (...well, he never asked) :-D"

hahaha great story John : )


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 27, 2015 at 4:18:43 pm

It's great technical work, and it wows the eye, but there's no story at all, so it might as well be a two minute build of raw stock waiting to be cut into a package. They need to learn how to edit - that two minutes could have been thirty seconds, and it would have blown me away, then left me wanting more. As I viewed it, I was looking for the end in under a minute, wondering how long I'd have to keep watching.

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Craig Alan
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 27, 2015 at 6:00:53 pm

The hardest part of basic production is the audio. Many young film makers will choose projects that do not require live audio recording. An action sequence with the easy ability to use speed control in a NLE and a music score is really not that hard. I've seen a zillion skate boarding movies as good as this one. I'm not saying that some kids don't have more visual talent than others. But most professional gigs and films have dialog. And yes a script and plot. This ups the price point, the skill, and the number of crew members that know what they are doing. Another major factor with "no budget" films is getting all these people to SHOW UP and take direction. A lot easier with money on the table.

Mac Pro, macbook pro, Imacs (i7); Canon 5D Mark III/70D, Panasonic AG-HPX170/AG-HPX250P, Canon HV40, Sony Z7U/VX2000/PD170; FCP 6 certified; FCP X write professionally for a variety of media; teach video production in L.A.


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Mark Suszko
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 28, 2015 at 3:11:33 pm

What I wanna know is...

is the Garage Kid hiring?


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John Rofrano
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 28, 2015 at 3:41:07 pm

[Mark Suszko] "is the Garage Kid hiring?"
...and does he give benefits? lol :-D

~jr

http://www.johnrofrano.com
http://www.vasst.com



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Andre van Berlo
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 28, 2015 at 6:09:04 pm
Last Edited By Andre van Berlo on Dec 28, 2015 at 6:19:55 pm

I am not so sure about all this. Of course there are more people getting into editing, production, etc. At the same time the demand for (good) content has grown significantly as well. Perhaps not all in the same fields but you can't deny that the amount of content via video has grown significantly.

I think there will still be a demand for professionals and maybe even more demand than ever before.

In my business I was forced to do stuff myself because I didn't have the money to pay for a high-end editor, website designer etc. But as the business is picking up I have hired a webdesigner to build my website (and it was not cheap). As soon as I earn enough I will outsource editing / video production as well as it is not my core business. I enjoy it, but I'd rather do other things in that time.

Many people start things up doing it themselves or hire an amateur but that doesn't mean it will stay like that. Some people hire a kid to take photo's at their wedding, I wonder how many recommendations the kid will get from that afterwards.

Online content is getting better and better and to stand out you need to deliver more and more professional type content. I am positive that an editor with a keen mind can find emerging markets in an era where video is dominating the web. It's about the value you bring to the client.

But then again, I am not a professional [edit: not a professional editor], just an entrepreneur watching from the sideline :-)



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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 28, 2015 at 6:49:24 pm

As I said above, it's all about talent. Anyone can buy the tools of the trade, and now more cheaply than ever before, but the years of experience it takes to know which tool is right for the job, takes...well...years.

Here's an example from the music side of what I do. Quite a few years ago, I was showing some colleagues of mine the setup I was using to create MIDI tracks for the various video projects I was working on. The first thing out of the mouth of one of them was, "We can buy one of the keyboards and do it ourselves!". No thought whatsoever to the years it takes to get good at that craft - I started taking lessons when I was six years old, practiced daily, went to a highly respected music school to study arranging and composition...yada...yada...

But the first response was to think that all they had to do was buy the technology, and the chops would come with it. I'm not throwing stones at the young up and comers...they (at least those with talent and perseverence) will be the next vanguard in the world of media production. But many of those who just see what's cool about it, and how easy you can buy in to the tools, will fall by the wayside.

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Andre van Berlo
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 28, 2015 at 6:56:59 pm

That is exactly why I think there is a place for pro's. Many kids want to make a living playing "in a band" until they start to live the life. Quickly it is not that nice anymore. They find out how much work it is making a living on music.

I like playing and concerts but I don't like touring all that much. Some think you get to see cool places. Well, yeah, the hotel rooms in those places. And they all look the same.

With regards to editing, I think many will try to do it but at some point will start hiring quality people to get the job done. (with probably a new found respect for any craft involved) At the same time future pro's can get a head start learning the trade on an early age. In that sense, they will be ahead of the game as they'll have a lot more experience when they go to University to study as opposed to kids many years ago.


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Dec 28, 2015 at 7:11:50 pm

Absolutely right, Andre. I was on the road with a band for five years. In just about every place we played, people would come up to us...doctors, lawyers, other professionals, and say that they'd give an arm and a leg to do what we were doing. They didn't realize that we'd spent years learning our craft, had to drive from gig to gig, setup equipment, rehearse, and manage the business side of things.

All the audience sees is that you're "playing", and they imagine how much fun that is. It is, but it takes a huge amount of work to make it look easy. It's the same with media production. The first question out of many of the new posters on these forums is whether there's a plugin to do that effect. It's always the simple approach that many look for. And it's obvious from many of the questions that they've never spent any time with the manuals or the wealth of tutorials out there. If you're going to be good at any craft, dedicate yourself to it...

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Bob Zelin
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Jan 6, 2016 at 6:35:36 pm

you have brought up an excellent analogy with the band stuff. So today, unless you are a "star" or
have corporate contracts to play convention jobs (or are in the small circle of NY/LA Studio musicians), you are not going to make a living. And it only gets worse, as "great sounds" are now available when you plug your guitar/keyboard into an iMac with a plug in that makes your instrument sound like it's going thru a big Marshall Amp or heavy Hammond Organ. Not the real thing ? Most people don't care - it's good enough (just like the cheap cameras or iPhone today).

SO - this happened to the Print industry. There are still print houses out there, but only the very super hi end. Everyone else prints themselves -because it is good enough.

Same applies to photography. How many still photographers can make a living, compared to just before Canon released the 5D, and started the downward spiral.

Same with audio recording. How many recording studios are there, that can survive ? While audio for post houses thrive in LA, most of the music recording studios are gone - because you can do it at home, not only with a toy, but a small pro tools system that costs almost nothing (not to mention Cake Walk, etc, etc).
So while Skywalker Sound is still in business, most can't make a living doing this.

And we are next. The next George Lucas won't point his iPhone at actors to make a feature film. But most of "our work" on this forum is from corporate events, corporate training, web videos, presentation videos, low budget documentaries, and a handful of TV shows and commercials. The "big" jobs will continue to use the expensive gear (and the expensive personnel), but the vast majority of people doing this for a living, will not be able to survive 15 years from now, because "everyone" can edit, "everyone" can shoot, because "everyone" has their own YouTube Channel - after all, it was a required course in High School, and now "everyone" can do it (and the iPhone, or GoPro, or whatever is out 10 - 15 years from now) - will be REAL GOOD !

You are a writer, with a pen and paper ? Try getting into a network to write a comedy or drama, and make a living with it. Try to get funding for your great script for that fantastic feature you just wrote. Good luck.

bob Zelin

Bob Zelin
Rescue 1, Inc.
bobzelin@icloud.com


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keith mann
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Jan 12, 2016 at 8:30:30 pm

With due respect, I think you are all wrong, the bottom is dropping out in the low and mid range. The problem is that the democratization of technology inevitably results in clients accepting lower quality to get it low cost or even free. And we are all guilty. Remember production up the 2000's? How many of you are are booking audio sweetening or color correction facilities? Or hiring a writer? Or a transcriber? Or an on-set still photographer? Or a lighting truck for even the small projects? Been hiring that steadycam guy recently? We dumped the expensive outsiders to do it ourselves with generic tools because its cheaper. Our clients are going to do it to us.



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Neil Goodman
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Jan 12, 2016 at 11:23:14 pm

[keith mann] "With due respect, I think you are all wrong, the bottom is dropping out in the low and mid range. The problem is that the democratization of technology inevitably results in clients accepting lower quality to get it low cost or even free. And we are all guilty. Remember production up the 2000's? How many of you are are booking audio sweetening or color correction facilities? Or hiring a writer? Or a transcriber? Or an on-set still photographer? Or a lighting truck for even the small projects? Been hiring that steadycam guy recently? We dumped the expensive outsiders to do it ourselves with generic tools because its cheaper. Our clients are going to do it to us.
"


Every spot i work on gets a dedicated audio guy, a dedicated GFX team, dedicated colorist if the higher ups deem what I did in the Avid can be better, and a dedicated writer/producer attached to the spot.

People still pay money for quality and they always will.


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Scott Witthaus
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Jan 13, 2016 at 11:39:05 am
Last Edited By Scott Witthaus on Jan 13, 2016 at 7:55:20 pm

[Neil Goodman] "Every spot i work on gets a dedicated audio guy, a dedicated GFX team, dedicated colorist if the higher ups deem what I did in the Avid can be better, and a dedicated writer/producer attached to the spot."

Agreed. The difference from the "2000's" or 1990's is that we have more tools at our fingertips where we can do some color correction, grfx or even audio sweetening if need be. And that's on my laptop, not paying $400/hr for a big linear suite. I think we heard the same thing 15 years ago: "now some college kid can do what we can for half the price." The trick is to just be better. People will still hire talent. "Good, fast, cheap: pick two"

"Democratization" will weed out less talented folks and replace them with more talented folks, no matter what the work...even if that means it's some college kid who is more talented. I think most viewers understand what a quality product is. Just my humble opinion.

Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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David Roth Weiss
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Jan 13, 2016 at 7:34:33 pm

[Neil Goodman] "People still pay money for quality and they always will."

Just like the US economy, there will always be 1% who can afford anything they want, but you're kidding yourself if you think this business offers a "good" career opportunity for more than a relative handful of those with filmmaking aspirations.

If any of you disagree with me, I'll be happy to bet any of you here that ten years from now you will not be making a living in the business of post-production. While I might lose a few bets, and will be happy to pay to anyone who enjoys success, I will make money, because the vast majority will NOT be able to sustain a career. Any takers?

David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist & Workflow Consultant
David Weiss Productions
Los Angeles


David is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.


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Scott Witthaus
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Jan 13, 2016 at 7:53:48 pm

I would take that bet, just as I would have taken that bet 15 years ago when folks said the same things. But, in 10 years, I hope to be looking at retirement.

Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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David Roth Weiss
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Jan 13, 2016 at 10:04:02 pm

Scott, if ten others were willing to take the same bet I'd be happy to give you a chance, and I'd be happy to pay you off in ten years if you win, because I'd win from eight or nine others here for every one who'd win. And, just for the record, it's not the veterans here I worry about, it's the young guys here who think democratization has given them a better or improved chance at a long term "sustainable" career in this industry. Where we call it democratization, Uberization, or Walmartization of this industry, it has opened the business to more, and more videos ARE being made, but the majority of people making those videos are less and less likely to be making a living making a living making those videos, thus making the biz unsustainable for most.

David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist & Workflow Consultant
David Weiss Productions
Los Angeles


David is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.


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Neil Goodman
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Jan 13, 2016 at 11:04:15 pm

[David Roth Weiss] "I'll be happy to bet any of you here that ten years from now you will not be making a living in the business of post-production. "

Do you think television is going to disappear in ten years? 20 years? I dont. I havent seen any sort of down trend in the field of work I do.

Sure - there are less editors employed here than there were 7 years ago when I started the gig, but not by many and positions that were eliminated were filled by freelancers who make more per hour than I do.

I see job offers every day and new vendors and agencies are sprouting up like weeds. All doing high end work.

Speaking to that - the stuff is looking more hi end and expensive than ever.

I may be in a little bubble out here, but I dont see that bubble bursting anytime soon.


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Brett Sherman
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Jan 14, 2016 at 12:28:54 am

[Neil Goodman] "Do you think television is going to disappear in ten years? 20 years? I dont. I havent seen any sort of down trend in the field of work I do."

It depends on what you mean by "television". Will local television in mid to small markets be a viable business model in 20 years? Quite frankly they can probably make more money selling their spectrum.

Will cable television exist in it's current structure in 20 years? Maybe not. I think currently we're at a transition period where both traditional cable television and streaming television coexist. I don't think it's going to last long like this. I think Cable TV will have a day of reckoning before too long. They won't be able to flood the channels with crap to catch channel flippers. And they won't be able to rely on that monthly fee they get regardless of whether anyone wants it or not.

When it comes down to it, will anyone pay for Honey Boo Boo?

Of course there will be jobs in post production. But will there be as many traditional TV jobs? I wouldn't count on it.


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David Roth Weiss
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Jan 14, 2016 at 12:48:19 am

[Brett Sherman] "
Of course there will be jobs in post production. But will there be as many traditional TV jobs? I wouldn't count on it.
"


And, will those jobs pay enough for a person to maintain a middle class existence? The quality of life a career can provide is much more important than how many jobs there might be, and that's what all the young guys here seem to ignore.

Meanwhile, hi Brett, it's good to see ya. Hope that your server is still serving you well. :)

David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist & Workflow Consultant
David Weiss Productions
Los Angeles


David is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Jan 14, 2016 at 7:45:44 am

The future isn't totally rainbows nor is it totally storm clouds. Old avenues are going away but new ones are opening up. Sure, maybe the day rate heyday some of the older guys experienced is gone forever but that doesn't mean making a living wage is out of the question. I see a number of job ads in LA that land around the $1500/wk mark and that works out to about $75k/year which is around $20k higher than the median household income in LA. Sure, for a lot of guys used to making six figures that $75k number is low, but it's not exactly poverty line.


DRW, I'll take your bet. I'm going to squirrel away $100 a year for the next 10yrs that says I'm still in post production when 01/13/26 rolls around.


-Andrew


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Craig Alan
Re: Bob Zelin is right.....The End Is Near!
on Jan 14, 2016 at 12:09:15 am

[David Roth Weiss] "hat ten years from now you will not be making a living in the business of post-production."

10 years from now is a way off the way this tech is evolving. There is more professional productions than ever before. Look at all the producers going into streaming videos into people's homes. It used to be 3 networks and a couple of local channels. Then when cable hit, HBO and the like were added. Now a lot of new productions from Netflix Hulo etc.

As far as the middle and low end ... things have changed to generalists that can do production. Specialists in post are limited to well budgeted productions. Yes. But there a lot of free lancers making a living as video producers.

I remember several years ago I was at an event and got into a conversation with a news videographer using a high end Sony camcorder. He took out the cartridge to load it into a laptop so he could edit it and send it to the station. He told me that he used to do just camera operation. Now he says I have to produce it, shoot it, edit it and even do my own sound. Other than talent, a one man band. But he still made a living at it.

Lots of wedding video people are one man bands. Sports events music head shot artists etc. They have to do more but can make a living. And lets see where net neutrality brings us as people can make a living producing their own series or movies. It hasn't taken off quite yet but the technology is there. Distribution is available to all. Getting people to pay for it is the challenge. If a model for this can take hold then mini production companies can take hold and hiring a post pro would be a good person to be a full time member. though i can also see directors editing their own stuff.

Mac Pro, macbook pro, Imacs (i7); Canon 5D Mark III/70D, Panasonic AG-HPX170/AG-HPX250P, Canon HV40, Sony Z7U/VX2000/PD170; FCP 6 certified; FCP X write professionally for a variety of media; teach video production in L.A.


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