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Bob Zelin
please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 28, 2015 at 10:14:06 pm

Hi -
ok, someone please explain the new way to make a living in the near future. Apple iPhone 6s will have 4K. So lets say in 2018, we have the iPhone 8, which will be the same quality as today's Blackmagic entry level camera (who knows, maybe better) - and you can store, and share to iCloud via h.265, so it will be fast. And every 23 - 24 year old - and I mean EVERY 23 - 24 year old knows how to use FCP-X, at least a little bit, not just people that studied video production in school. So, someone with an iPhone 8 and a Thunderbolt 3 Mac Pro, and a 350 Mb/sec internet connection can do everything that you can do (again, I mean EVERYONE, like everyone knows how to use Microsoft WORD) -
With the exception of hi end shows and features, how does the majority of the people on these forums continue to earn a living ?

Just asking ?

(all of this was inspired by the excellent article posted here about
Randy Ubilos)

If Creative Cow was around during the print era, I would have probably posted a similar question (what happens when everyone can afford post script fonts, and laser printers ?).


Bob Zelin

Bob Zelin
Rescue 1, Inc.
bobzelin@icloud.com


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David Roth Weiss
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 28, 2015 at 10:29:41 pm

Bob, everyone in this "business" shared the same wish, to become an artist, and now everyone is an artist, unfortunately starving artists. The old saying be careful what you wish for definitely applies to this "business."

David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist & Workflow Consultant
David Weiss Productions
Los Angeles


David is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 28, 2015 at 11:08:10 pm

I feel like you almost answered your own question. What happens when everyone has access to pen and paper? Or a camera? A guitar? A computer? A fully functioning kitchen? Easy access to an affordable hardware store brimming with useful tools and building materials?

Things change. Some areas expand, some contract, some totally disappear, some completely new ones pop up. For people that built their business on scarcity of gear (I'm the only one in town with this thing) and/or scarcity of operational knowledge (I'm the only one in town that knows what buttons to push to make this thing do stuff) they are toast unless they move on to a new area where scarcity of gear and/or operational knowledge can still be fruitfully monetized.

A lot of the low hanging fruit is going to continue to disappear but just because people have the tools to edit doesn't mean they want to edit. And even if they want to edit they might not be very good. And even if they are good at it they might not have the time to do it. Most of my neighbors have landscaping services take care of their yards because they don't want to do it, not because they can't do it. If you just need your yard mowed Bobby next door can probably do that, but if you want your rose bushes properly taken care of, the limbs trimmed on that 50ft tree outback, and recommendations for drought tolerant perennials that do well in the sun and don't die down to their roots every winter then you might need to hire a professional. ;)

[Bob Zelin] "With the exception of hi end shows and features, how does the majority of the people on these forums continue to earn a living ?
"


For me personally, I guess mostly non-hi end TV shows, indie documentaries, and web content (both indie and for big players like Yahoo or Viacom). Just thinking about less traditional types of gigs, I know editors working at Hearst media (web content), the NFL Network (content for the cable channel and the web), Hulu (original content) and Amazon (original content). I've seen video editing job postings for Snapchat, Activision, Electronic Arts, and the developer of League of Legends (who's name I can't remember off the top of my head). Do they all pay top dollar? No, but I only mentioned things that, IIRC, paid at least decently.

There's a whole lot of content being created that aren't looking for scrubs, but of course there is the age of problem of getting the work that you know is out there somewhere.


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 28, 2015 at 11:42:40 pm

I have three words to say to you Bob: "Talent Not Included". Although the ground may be shifting under us all in terms of the way the market is working, it will still be a case of talent winning out.

There's always a perceived threat when technology gets democratized, but it always boils down to talent (and experience). I work in a fairly small market in New Hampshire (not counting my clients worldwide through the web), and when a new production house showed up, I saw it as a real threat to my industrial video work. Sure enough, a few of the clients I had in my sights were grabbed by this guy. But only for one production - his lack of ability to shoot computer screens (I use screen capture), as well as lack of knowledge on how to do it properly, plus poor graphic design skills, and insisting on doing everything himself, relegated him to churning through the clients in the area - he never got a second production. Now I rest easy - until the next one who can afford the equipment comes along.

As Red Adair once said: "If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur."

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Jeff Kirkland
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 28, 2015 at 11:43:52 pm
Last Edited By Jeff Kirkland on Aug 28, 2015 at 11:48:26 pm

As others have said, it's not the tools - it's how you use them.

Word processors are available to everyone, and pretty much everyone knows how to use one, but not everyone can write. And, as mentioned above, not everyone wants to write.

The same will be (or actually has been for a long time) true of video. I sell my creativity, my experience, and my ability to deliver what you want on time and on budget. For most of my clients, what equipment or software I use to get there is completely irrelevant.

I personally find having clients with some production knowledge a good thing. It lets me communicate and collaborate with them on a higher level, and I find they have a better idea and acceptance of why I'm quoting a particular dollar value for a project.

The real change is that it will be (is) no longer considered a job for the 'cool kids' - It'll just be an everyday thing like gardening and house-keeping.


Jeff Kirkland | Video Producer | Southern Creative Media | Melbourne Australia
http://www.southerncreative.com.au | G+: http://gplus.to/jeffkirkland | Twitter: @jeffkirkland


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Bob Zelin
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 28, 2015 at 11:56:52 pm

Of course, Andrew, you have answered my question, more than you know, which was my point.

You state "or with a camera" - unless you are Vincent LaForet, how many people can make a REAL living (you know, real money, not 35 grand a year) as a photographer today. With products from Canon and Nikon (and others) that even novices like me can use, to make amazing photos, why hire a professional photographer.

You state "a guitar" - I have recently learned how to play guitar, and am playing occational Sundays at some local bars - it's fun, and we are ok, and you know what we get paid - ZERO. We do it for fun. Just like most bands, just like most PROFESSIONAL bands - who make very little money. We are not the Eagles. And as you probably are aware, it is very difficult for any musician to make a REAL living (kind of like photographers).

You state " a fully functional kitchen" - we eat out all the time, and are friendly with many chefs, and sous chefs - the reality of this, is that unless you are a owner/partner, you are not making a lot of money - let me be clear, you are not making as much money as a senior video editor at a professional post production facility in LA, even if you are a executive chef at a big restaurant in LA - not unless you are the owner.

You state "an affordable hardware store" - once again, the manager at a Home Depot, or Lowes or Ace Hardware is not making the same money as a senior editor at a post production facility. If you are a senior editor, or a senior graphics artist at a company that is working on ad agency work, you are making A LOT more money than the guy who MANAGES the local Home Depot.

Unless you OWN YOUR BUSINESS - how much does any landscaper make ?

I bothered to write this boring post, because you mentioned one of my MAJOR clients in your post. They recently fired their senior editor, who was AMAZING (but made too much money) and replaced him with a younger guy who is not as good, but gets the job done, and charges half as much.

And that's my point. Randy Ubilos article specifically stated the target audience that he wanted. The idea is to get EVERYONE to start doing this. It's certainly right for Apple - it's just intimidating for "us". The reality that ANYONE can do what we do.

In the same way that major recordings, major feature films, major musical acts, major TV shows, major magazines, major photo shoots, will always continue, the vast majority of the work available for this will change dramatically. It has already for most of these industries - and because Creative Cow is about the video industry, I bothered to write this boring post. The day that you are happy that you can charge $100 for a full day of editing, with all of your hardware to produce a finished show, and be happy with that - well, I guess that day, I won't bother to read these forums anymore.

Bob Zelin

Bob Zelin
Rescue 1, Inc.
bobzelin@icloud.com


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Gary Huff
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 2:43:34 am
Last Edited By Gary Huff on Aug 29, 2015 at 2:44:13 am

[Bob Zelin] "I bothered to write this boring post, because you mentioned one of my MAJOR clients in your post. They recently fired their senior editor, who was AMAZING (but made too much money) and replaced him with a younger guy who is not as good, but gets the job done, and charges half as much.

And that's my point. Randy Ubilos article specifically stated the target audience that he wanted. The idea is to get EVERYONE to start doing this. It's certainly right for Apple - it's just intimidating for "us". The reality that ANYONE can do what we do. "


I can see where you are coming from. That a professional might do it "better" is entirely subjective to the person making the money decision who may not have any taste. They may think that they got more than their money's worth from a nephew who is just messing around than what they would have paid someone who has to make a living at it.

The final product may actually be inferior, but if the client ultimately does not care about the difference, then there's nothing you can really do.


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Shawn Miller
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 3:37:17 pm

[Gary Huff] "I can see where you are coming from. That a professional might do it "better" is entirely subjective to the person making the money decision who may not have any taste. They may think that they got more than their money's worth from a nephew who is just messing around than what they would have paid someone who has to make a living at it.

The final product may actually be inferior, but if the client ultimately does not care about the difference, then there's nothing you can really do."


Completely true! Over the years I've gotten horrible footage from vendors; green skin tones, yellowish tinted people, etc. In all of those situations I was able to fix or improve the picture, but I would also show the uncorrected footage to my coworkers and recommend that we not use those shooters again. Their usual response... "I don't see the difference".

Shawn



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Andrew Kimery
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 6:34:39 am

[Bob Zelin] "And that's my point. Randy Ubilos article specifically stated the target audience that he wanted. The idea is to get EVERYONE to start doing this. It's certainly right for Apple - it's just intimidating for "us". The reality that ANYONE can do what we do.
"


When I was younger (either college age or recently out of school) I came across the famous "fat girl in Ohio" quote from Francis Ford Coppola. When asked about the future of film he said, “Suddenly one day some little fat girl in Ohio is gonna be the new Mozart and make a beautiful film with her little father’s camera-corder. And for once the so-called professionalism about movies will be destroyed forever, and it’ll really become an art form."

My initial reaction was one of fear. "What the hell am I going to do if everyone has their own camera and can edit their own movies?" The more I thought about it though the more I agreed with Mr. Coppola. It was inevitable and it was for the best. That realization made me rethink how I perceive what I do. I don't operate software, I provide solutions to problems. Is that a harder sell than just saying I know how to use the software? Sure, but they people I want to work with typically know the difference and are looking for people like me, not people that just push buttons. If the job and/or expectations are so low that a monkey or a robot can do it then a monkey or a robot should do it.

I got into the industry in the midst of the 'DV revolution' so the "everyone has FCP and a DV camera" pandemonium had just about started. For me turmoil and rapid change have always been the norm so maybe that's why I don't fret over the turmoil and rapid change. Maybe if I was older I'd have nostalgia for the job security provided by linear bays and BetaSP but I'm not, so I don't (though one of my first jobs was shooting on BetaSP and did involve deck-to-deck editing in the field). Maybe when I'm 55 I'll be like, "Well this sucks... it was way better in my day.." No idea. Much of the work I have done though wouldn't have been possible 15yrs ago so I can't really be mad at disruptive forces when those same disruptive forces have been such a big part of my career.

Besides the already disrupted industry I entered into I also moved to Los Angeles specifically because it was an over-saturated, hyper competitive market place that would most likely chew me up, spit me out and leave me a jaded, burned-out husk of a human being. There's so many editors here that you can literally post an ad looking for a super tease specialist with Bravo credits on female driven, ensemble cast docu-dramas and the post supervisor will most likely find someone that meets all the criteria. There's also so much desperation (and dreaming) that you can put a gig on CraigsList that promises $50, pizza and exposure and 200 people will apply. It's either horrible or awesome depending on your personality. I'm not really a thrill seeker, but this lifestyle is nearly a requirement for the work that I want to do so I roll with it and mutter the Serenity Prayer on days I want to mimic Michael Douglas' character in "Falling Down". 11 years in* and so far, so good, BTW (knock on wood).

Changes? Bring it. Challenges? More please. The inevitable future shouldn't be intimidating but motivational. Anyone can do what we do but the sticking point is how well can they do it? How fast can they do it? How do they handle adverse situations (and adverse situations are inevitable)? If I can't offer anything more than college kids and soccers mom then I have done something horrible, horribly wrong. If employers/clients feel that college kids and soccer moms can adequately do my job then it's probably a sign that I'm no longer a good fit with that employer/client, and I should be moving along anyway. Fincher, when talking about pitching "Aliens 3" to the studio, said something along the lines of, "I brought them a teacup but they wanted a beer mug." Sometimes paths diverge.

I'm sorry to hear about your Senior Editor friend Bob, but that situation is pretty common across corporate America, not just where our industry and corporate America overlap. At one time or another I've worked for nearly all the major media companies (Newscorp/FOX, Disney/ABC, Viacom, NBC, etc.,) when companies get to that size employees are just warm bodies with ID numbers. I've seen great teams dismantled time and time again not because of performance but because the numbers on a spreadsheet someplace didn't add up. It is what it is though, and it's one reason I prefer being freelance. As a freelancer I know I have to hustle all the time but if you are staff (especially staff for a long time) and you get cut loose you are abruptly alone, drifting out to sea without warning and without a network.


-Andrew

*It's actually more than 11 years but that's a whole other story.


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Tim Wilson
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 7:28:11 am

[Andrew Kimery] "Maybe when I'm 55 I'll be like, "Well this sucks... it was way better in my day.." No idea. Much of the work I have done though wouldn't have been possible 15yrs ago so I can't really be mad at disruptive forces when those same disruptive forces have been such a big part of my career."

Having just turned 55, I too have gotten where I've gotten through constant disruption.

As has Bob, a few years older.

And really, the COW is only here because of disruption. The guys in their 50s and even 60s who were here 20 years ago when it started -- believe me, these guys have lived through more change than you can imagine. They're still around because, like you, they thrive on relentless chaos.

That's not at all Bob's point.

"It's not the tools it's the creativity" also misses the point. His example of the senior editor underscores that. He was anything but a tool jockey. That guy HAD the creativity.

The thing is, for the first 15+ years of the disruption -- I'm saying from the introduction of Film Composer in 1992 past the crest of the HD transition, say, 2007-2008 -- DV notwithstanding, there was still a sense during that whole time that the future still offered the opportunity of growing your business. Moving up.

Nowadays, that's not necessarily the case.

To put it another way, Bob's point is NOT "Everything was better when I was younger." I've known Bob for coming up on 20 years now, and I've never heard a nostalgic peep from him, ever.

His point is exactly the opposite. "I've had a great ride, but what the fjjk do I do with the next 15-20 years of my career? Does my business actually have another 15-20 years in the tank? It sure doesn't look like it from here."

Again, this is not a matter of being a dinosaur, being nostalgic, being unwilling to adapt.

The matter is: 20 years ago, it was very easy to imagine another 20 years of growth for anyone willing to adapt.

Now, it's harder to imagine what it will take to keep adapting to 20 years of THIS. This is different.

Nothing I've read here suggests that he's much off the mark.

Or am *I* off the mark? Wouldn't be the first time. LOL


PS. Dad's in town, so I'm having the opportunity to re-observe this. He's 77, working harder than ever, and is hoping to maybe slow down by 80. Bob is quite right to be thinking about HIS job 20 years from now, because in his late 70s, he's probably still going to need one.


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Warren Eig
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 5:18:36 pm

Bob,

You answered your own question. Unless you are in features and TV, and even there the studios grind your rate to shreds-- no negotiating anymore, you really can't make a living.

I have people coming to me on the non-union jobs and they don't want to even see my reel. They just want to know the rate-- I call that rate trolling. They don't want the best or even good, just the cheapest. Then they turn to someone else and say, 'I found this guy who'll do it for X, will you do it for X-50.'

We are competing with people who don't know why or how to cut, but they have the tools so they are a DP or editor or fill in the blank. It's just the wave of the future.

My 2¢

Warren Eig
O 310-470-0905


email: warren@babyboompictures.com
website: http://www.BabyBoomPictures.com


REEL: http://www.babyboompictures.com/BabyBoomPictures/Reels.html


For Camera Accessories - Monitors and Batteries
website: http://www.EigRig.com



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David Roth Weiss
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 6:32:47 pm
Last Edited By David Roth Weiss on Aug 29, 2015 at 6:38:40 pm

[Warren Eig] "Unless you are in features and TV, and even there the studios grind your rate to shreds-- no negotiating anymore, you really can't make a living. "

Finally, someone gets it...

The fundamental misunderstanding here, that repeats itself over and over again, is NOT that the older guys here, myself included, are afraid of change and hate new technology, but simply that we have seen this business go from one where virtually anyone with talent could get rich, to one where almost no one can get rich.

There is no doubt the democratization of video and the tearing down of barriers to entry has benefited creativity and created many new opportunities, however, the older of us have been witnesses to (or victims of) the devaluation and commoditization of talent, which has made it far tougher for anyone in this industry to build and maintain a truly sustainable career.

David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist & Workflow Consultant
David Weiss Productions
Los Angeles


David is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.


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Warren Eig
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 6:46:46 pm

Well said, David!

Just the sad state of affairs...

Warren Eig
O 310-470-0905


email: warren@babyboompictures.com
website: http://www.BabyBoomPictures.com


REEL: http://www.babyboompictures.com/BabyBoomPictures/Reels.html


For Camera Accessories - Monitors and Batteries
website: http://www.EigRig.com



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Andrew Kimery
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 30, 2015 at 2:46:03 am

[Tim Wilson] "His point is exactly the opposite. "I've had a great ride, but what the fjjk do I do with the next 15-20 years of my career? Does my business actually have another 15-20 years in the tank? It sure doesn't look like it from here.""

And that sounds like a great discussion. When can we start having it? So far what I'm mostly hearing is older guys talking about how awesome it was yesterday and how much it sucks today in a thread that I'm being told is not about older guys talking about how awesome it was yesterday and how much it sucks today. ;)

I know there are many experience problem solvers in the crowd so who wants to throw out the first idea?


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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 30, 2015 at 1:14:11 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "And that sounds like a great discussion. When can we start having it? "

I don't know whether this addresses what you are looking for, but here's a thought. I advise a couple of local colleges that include both film and digital media programs. So far the best job opportunities are in digital media. These are programs that not only teach production, but also branding, marketing, and advertising concepts. The idea is to develop well-rounded graduates that can develop strategies. Some of which includes production, but some of which may involve print, web, or social media campaigns. Other than a few traditional markets doing film and TV, that's what I see as more future-proof in other markets.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Bill Davis
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 30, 2015 at 8:15:57 pm

[Oliver Peters] "Other than a few traditional markets doing film and TV, that's what I see as more future-proof in other markets."

I agree with Oliver.

The bottom line is that things have changed. So sticking with processes that solved yesterday's problems is a suspect strategy for tomorrow.

Today it's all about sniffing out, as early as you can, how inevitable change will continue to affect your future. And the only useful solution is to connect more with people who look ahead - and less with people that simply defend the status quo. Not because the status quo was bad. But merely because the status quo is shifting faster than ever.

It matters less WHAT you know than WHO you know (the WHAT being devalued since factual knowledge is all on line in your pocket) not as some elitist strategy - but simply because being connected with inquisitive people who experience things and think in different modes than you do is how you get EXPOSED to new thinking more quickly.

And that's how you move forward today, IMO.

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 30, 2015 at 8:44:35 pm

[Bill Davis] "The bottom line is that things have changed. So sticking with processes that solved yesterday's problems is a suspect strategy for tomorrow.
"


It isn't just us, either. Take a look at the advertising agency business. Sure there are still a lot of traditional shops, but there are also a lot of other types of "brand strategy" companies. Even the old established names have divisions to tackle the new ways of marketing for their clients.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Jim Wiseman
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 1:01:16 am
Last Edited By Jim Wiseman on Aug 31, 2015 at 1:17:07 am

[Oliver Peters] "So far the best job opportunities are in digital media. These are programs that not only teach production, but also branding, marketing, and advertising concepts. The idea is to develop well-rounded graduates that can develop strategies. Some of which includes production, but some of which may involve print, web, or social media campaigns. Other than a few traditional markets doing film and TV, that's what I see as more future-proof in other markets."

I think you have hit the nail on the head here, Oliver. There was a reason I named my corp DIgitalMedia Hawaii/Pacific, Inc. 20 plus years ago and not Hawaii Video Production or some such encumbering name . If you really want to make it on an economic level, the future communicators (what we currently are and these new folks hope to be) will need to have skills beyond those required by TV and theatrical release. Your enumeration is spot on. We at least need to understand how to integrate people who know these disciplines into a package worth much more than we can make on a daily rate editing or shooting. It is becoming a much larger ball game. There will be a few who can do it on their own, but not many.

I believe, however, that you use the best people and equipment you can afford in production of original and edited material. You never know where this media might end up or be of worth. Regarding the use of iPhones, etc., they will be used when spontaneity is prime or nothing else was there to get the shot. But if there is a budget, I will always choose the best that is affordable, equipment and operators, within budget reality. None of that has changed in the last 100 years. But I do keep my iPhone in my pocket and remember to shoot horizontally.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.1, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500, Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 30, 2015 at 12:52:45 am

[Bob Zelin] "And that's my point. Randy Ubilos article specifically stated the target audience that he wanted. The idea is to get EVERYONE to start doing this. It's certainly right for Apple - it's just intimidating for "us". The reality that ANYONE can do what we do. "

I think Apple are monomaniacal on that stuff. There is some form of a blind zealot built into them, and there is some blind zealotry built into X.
(what is that sound I hear - ah yes, it's Bill arriving on horses hooves).

surely the thing of it is that people enter the creative area for inherent reasons? Or at least the people who carry on do. It's self selecting. Everyone with a 240 fps 720p iphone 6 could nearly outstrip all the technologies the BBC employed to create the first Planet Earth. Handily. And they'd be holding something that weighs nothing. Although of course they couldn't - that took all of the BBC's best efforts across thousands of staff.

Also, as far as I can tell, say 60% of my current skillset involves responding to sharp left turns from the client without the crockery falling off the table. Or at least the crockery I have marked for protection. The creative industries are highly interpersonal - respecting the spinning plates is quite a lot of the intrinsic skill set. If the plates fall, no one gets to edit anything.

And, to be fair, FCPX is just irritating - try to hard - overworked software. It has miles and miles of tattooed Apple intellectual baggage written all over it. In terms of sitting staring at assets and trying to work them into any kind of shape it's far too in your face. It shouts about how everything should be done. It's tedious software with a crap keyframing system, which is a cardinal sin. FCPX is going absolutely nowhere for a variety of good reasons.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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John Rofrano
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 28, 2015 at 11:50:46 pm

[Bob Zelin] "(again, I mean EVERYONE, like everyone knows how to use Microsoft WORD) -"
Yes, but EVERYONE doesn't have the talent to be a best selling author!

Just because uncle Bob owns a video camera, doesn't mean you should ask him to video tape your wedding.

It's just like Formula 1 racing where everyone has the same equiptment it comes down to the crew and driver.

When everyone has the same video equiptment, all that's left as a differentiator is:

TALENT!

...and that's how it should be.

~jr

http://www.johnrofrano.com
http://www.vasst.com



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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 12:16:21 am

I really don't think the business model has changed for content creators, except that the cost of entry is cheaper. Therefore, more competitors, but also more creators using video in innovative ways that were never possible in the past.

However, the big drop is in the need for the middle tier of support personnel - primarily in facilities. Unfortunately that means people who installed and supported TV and facility infrastructures. There's not much need for wiring, VTRs, etc. anymore. If you are in a large facility, those skills have been replace by IT needs. TV stations don't really have the need for much of an engineering department anymore. They do need IT specialists. In smaller shops, pretty much neither is required. Large storage set-ups used to require system integrator or staff engineering support. Now, you plug a Promise array in via Thunderbolt and you are set.

On the production side, not that much will change. Yes, you can get by with a smaller crew, but then you always could. If you want to mount a more sophisticated production, it still requires lighting, craft services, sound, make-up, etc. regardless of how small the camera is.

On the post side there are still specialties that require skills - edit, sound, graphics, VFX, color, etc. Some will get by without it, but others won't. Take a look at web development or print production. These could long be done by one person, however, there are still plenty of specialty shops with a distributed talent pool.

Ultimately parts of the industry will change and even go away, but many others will still exist in the future.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Neil Sadwelkar
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 30, 2015 at 4:25:49 am

I get what you're saying, Bob. And good points raised by others who responded too.

I too earned a living as an editor in India in the nineties and 2000s. And then worked at managing large post facilities.
Out here in India, the exact same situation is emerging.

Large post house - telecine, SAN, grading theatres, Avids, Smokes, Quantels, VTR-laden machine rooms, routers, wiring - are rapidly being replaced by smaller digital file-based systems.

I run a small boutique place with the best talent who work on a freelance basis for me. So I'm using a different model. I no longer rent out facility or equipment. I rent out talent. Myself and my friends and colleagues. I'm urging offline editors around me to do the same, rent themselves and absorb the cost of the equipment.

When it comes to specialised jobs in post - editing, sound editing, finishing (online), sound fix and mix, colour grading - the tools are cheaper, and affordable, so everyone and his dog has gone out to buy one. And then, they try doing it themselves. And then they pay for my services.

I think in this new world, we post experts will actually do better financially compared to the old system of a businessman-run facility investing in equipment and us working as employees for a wage.

-----------------------------------
Neil Sadwelkar
neilsadwelkar.blogspot.com
twitter: fcpguru
FCP Editor, Edit systems consultant
Mumbai India


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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 30, 2015 at 4:43:56 pm

[Neil Sadwelkar] "I run a small boutique place with the best talent who work on a freelance basis for me. So I'm using a different model. I no longer rent out facility or equipment. I rent out talent. Myself and my friends and colleagues. I'm urging offline editors around me to do the same, rent themselves and absorb the cost of the equipment. "

To some extend some of this was kicked around in a previous discussion about rates. I think in general, it's harder and harder to get paid for your gear, so we will all have to adjust accordingly. This isn't unusual in other businesses either. For example, here in the US, car mechanics are often hired with the expectation that they bring their own stocked tool chest to the job. For many that's an investment of at least $2K (for used tools) and up (for new tools). That's part of what they bring with them, but they get paid according to skill and ultimately the clients that come back for repeat business.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Herb Sevush
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 1:20:02 pm

[Bob Zelin] " So lets say in 2018, we have the iPhone 8, which will be the same quality as today's Blackmagic entry level camera (who knows, maybe better) - and you can store, and share to iCloud via h.265, so it will be fast. And every 23 - 24 year old - and I mean EVERY 23 - 24 year old knows how to use FCP-X, at least a little bit, not just people that studied video production in school. So, someone with an iPhone 8 and a Thunderbolt 3 Mac Pro, and a 350 Mb/sec internet connection can do everything that you can do"

If they can do what i can do, and they will work cheaper, then they should get my job. However I haven't met too many kids who can do what I do. My biggest fear is losing the clients that can appreciate the difference. At my age, losing established clients to retirement and/or the mortuary is a much greater fear than worrying about the onslaught of younger competition. Young producers want to work with their peers, for the most part, not an AARP curmudgeon, so the real work is in trying to stay relevant. As a dig, I might also state that if all these young editors are learning FCPX, than I have nothing to worry about.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Steve Connor
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 2:14:01 pm

[Herb Sevush] " As a dig, I might also state that if all these young editors are learning FCPX, than I have nothing to worry about."

Why? do you feel FCPX will somehow inhibit them creatively?


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Herb Sevush
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 2:26:15 pm

[Steve Connor] "Why? do you feel FCPX will somehow inhibit them creatively?"

Mostly I said that as a joke (a "dig.") For the record, I don't think X will inhibit anyone creatively. It might inhibit them commercially. For the moment, none of my shows are cut with X, none of the shows my freelance editors work on elsewhere are cut with X, none of the shows my producer friends in NYC work on are cut with X - but hey, as this thread is testament to, things change.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Mark Smith
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 3:09:36 pm

Bob's question is perfectly valid as we all hurtle into the future. It used to be that entry costs were barriers- remember buy a SD Sony 600 or equivalent for $40K and then a lens or two and some batteries, tripod etc?
Cost of entry has tumbled so a lot more people can get in and buy an amazing camera for a fraction of the price 20 years ago.
I'm a DP first and travel quite a bit for work especially the last few years. and have had occasion to hire crew all over the US. I can tell you that even with the lower cost of entry the talent pool is pretty thin in a lot of places, thinner than even I imagined it would be. Once you're out of major markets, the amount of crew that is available for hire is pretty inexperienced or has largely done one thing as the basis of their professional experience. I'm talking shooting side now.

On the editorial side the picture is a little different because even if you're cutting wedding videos in Nashville, you're getting seat time with the tools and can get pretty good at using them even though from a story perspective, you're doing the same thing over and over again. One of the key things I have found about working in this business is getting experience in many different situations whether it is editing or shooting or what ever your chosen field of endeavour may be.Unfortunately this thing - widely varied experience in one's chosen field is not easily bought. You have to make some horrible mistakes that might cost you a client or two a long the way, and you have to survive doing what you've chosen to do long enough to be compensated in away that is sustainable.

So while some barriers to entry have been lowered like the cost of an NLE license and some hardware to run it on, or the cost of a Canon C300 and some support gear, relative to what those things might have cost in the past, the time and persistence to acquire the skill set and business relationships to support oneself and make a decent living in the biz hasn't really changed.


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Tom Sefton
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 5:51:17 pm

Just a muse on the cost of entry point - could it be that the lower cost of equipment is actually hurting startup businesses more than helping them because they don't start to budget for the absolute minimum that a day of filming or editing would cost? If you've dropped £100k on cameras, lenses, edit equipment etc, would it protect your investment more by charging a fair amount or turning work down? Is it easier to shoot and edit for £200 per day if you have only invested £5k on all the equipment you own?

Co-owner at Pollen Studio
http://www.pollenstudio.co.uk


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Charlie Austin
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 3:47:53 pm

[Herb Sevush] "For the moment, none of my shows are cut with X, none of the shows my freelance editors work on elsewhere are cut with X, none of the shows my producer friends in NYC work on are cut with X - but hey, as this thread is testament to, things change."

Yes, they do. Here's a couple more X shows... http://variety.com/2015/tv/news/ae-and-lmn-to-revisit-o-j-simpson-trial-wit...

-------------------------------------------------------------

~ My FCPX Babbling blog ~
~"It is a poor craftsman who blames his tools."~
~"The function you just attempted is not yet implemented"~


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Jim Wiseman
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 7:48:42 pm
Last Edited By Jim Wiseman on Aug 30, 2015 at 1:38:40 am

The answer is to find a niche and be the best. Who thought it would be easy? As more people have tools it gets more difficult. Sorry, you just have to be good with talent, smelling out opportunities, and getting the tools. People will always want to watch something good, and you have GOT to be flexible enough to see the opportunities. That may matter most after you get some chops down. And don't be afraid of things you haven't had complete experience with. FCPX comes to mind. iPhones, Apps. It is always a new world out there, every day, if you want to stay in the game. At some point you will have to invent your own semi self-contained game without as much commercial potential. Aging is inevitable.

May I make the observation that the older we get, the more threatening the rental model is? If you are working on the projects you consider your legacy, can you really afford to be paying monthly for your software to keep your projects alive? I have been lucky, I have gotten to this point in my life and career (yes, I still have one,fortunately) where future cost REALLY matters. If I have to pay constantly to keep my projects alive, then it will all not be finished, as my ability to keep projects going will exceed my income. I have made a very good living being on the cutting edge since the early'70's. First broadcast video on PortaPaks by Sony and on from there. Being on the cutting edge with talent is the only way to make a decent living or even a VERY GOOD one, but you need to own your business.

But now it is time for me to catch up with the editing of a LOT of important video footage I've shot and photos I've taken that need fine art printing (paper is still the best storage format for photos, HDs go poof without curation, same with video). We're talking a gallery in London that wants my Jimi Hendrix, Dead, Stones photos, and that is just the R&R. Historic video footage of Pacific island cultures, video synthesizer work, etc.

Just don't take away the tools I thought I already had to squeeze a few more bucks out of me. That is what makes me angry. Guess I should have been in something more mature, like wood working.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.1, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500, Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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Steve Connor
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 8:14:48 pm

[Jim Wiseman] "May I make the observation that the older we get, the more threatening the rental model is? If you are working on the projects you consider your legacy, can you really afford to be paying monthly for your software to keep your projects alive? I have been lucky, I have gotten to this point in my life and career (yes, I still have one,fortunately) where future cost REALLY matters. If I have to pay constantly to keep my projects alive, then it will all not be finished, as my ability to keep projects going will exceed my income. I have made a very good living being on the cutting edge since the early'70's. First broadcast video on PortaPaks by Sony and on from there. Being on the cutting edge with talent is the only way to make a decent living or even a VERY GOOD one, but you need to own your business.

But now it is time for me to catch up with the editing of a LOT of important video footage I've shot and photos I've taken that need fine art printing (paper is still the best storage format for photos, HDs go poof without curation, same with video). We're talking a gallery in London that wants my Jimi Hendrix, Dead, Stones photos, and that is just the R&R. Historic video footage of Pacific island cultures, video synthesizer work, etc.

Just don't take away the tools I thought I already had to squeeze a few more bucks out of me. That is what makes me angry. Guess I should have been in something more mature, like wood working."


Where's the "Move to Adobe Creative Cloud or Not" Button? :)


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Jim Wiseman
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 8:45:15 pm
Last Edited By Jim Wiseman on Aug 29, 2015 at 9:48:53 pm

Glad you are young enough for this not to make any difference to you. I think it goes straight to Bob's point. Thanks for the reiteration, but you left out the first paragraph.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.1, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500, Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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Steve Connor
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 10:19:09 pm

[Jim Wiseman] "Glad you are young enough for this not to make any difference to you. I think it goes straight to Bob's point. Thanks for the reiteration, but you left out the first paragraph."

I think Adobe adopting a subscription model has nothing to do with his point at all


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Jim Wiseman
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 11:39:11 pm

Read the first paragraph again. Self explanatory. Competition from new usually younger people is going to limit our income. Rental is bad for those whose cash flow is limited or sporadic. New people coming in creates pressure on older users whose earning power is going down because of changes in the marketplace, forced layoff, and eventual retirement from commercial work. With competition willing to work for little or nothing, we are not as likely to be in a position to keep renting for access. Because the new arrivals are not as likely to be able to afford the initial capital investment required by Perpetual License software, a $50 a month rental seems cheap. These are the legions of new users being discussed in this thread. I have already made that initial investment and could continue to use my perpetually licensed software as long as necessary, upgrading when necessary for a reasonable amount. I was then in a better position to compete with these new arrivals in the market. Definitely on topic.

I want to work with software that will work for multiple years, as long as my computer systems will support it. I am invested in such systems. When competition in the marketplace cuts your business income drastically (Bob's fear) and you may even face retirement or layoff, your cash flow can drop to Social Security plus savings. Even though you have the personal work you really cared about all those years when you had to work commercially, the opportunity to finish it is practically stolen from you by forced rental because your software stops working without a payment which you can no longer afford. Perpetually licensed software would keep working.

And definitely on topic: That is why I am leaning toward FCPX (the debate of which is in the title of this forum) or other software with a perpetual license, say Media 100, which I own, or new software like Resolve. I still like the track metaphor as well.

I'm eliminating Adobe software from my workflow. At least until they come up with a perpetual license once again. The topic Bob started is a large part of my reasoning. I just want my software to keep working without constant financial pressure. Then I can remain competitive with my own current clients and will also be able to finish my own long put off personal projects. Quite simple.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.1, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500, Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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Gary Huff
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 29, 2015 at 11:47:50 pm

[Jim Wiseman] ". Competition from new usually younger people is going to limit our income. Rental is bad for those whose cash flow is limited or sporadic."

As opposed to dropping $2500 all at once?


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Jim Wiseman
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 30, 2015 at 12:23:46 am

I dropped that years ago, Gary. And it was a lot less than $2500. Last time Production Premium was an under $400 upgrade. CS6. Still working what, three years later, though I don't really use anything other than Photoshop and Audition very occasionally. No future in Premiere for me.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.1, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500, Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 30, 2015 at 8:52:53 pm

[Jim Wiseman] "No future in Premiere for me."

but it's so so so good jim. I'll swallow anything - sort of - for how good premiere has gotten. And the update cycle has been completely insane. That said I forgot to transfer from my business to my current account for the annual one time payment for CC. I got an email off adobe saying I need to update my payment details.

Everything still boots, it's not like they turn off the lights immediately, but it's a pretty uncomfortable reminder that I don't own my primary toolset. I don't like the feeling at all, because I owned production premium CS6 just like you - but premiere pro is a mortal lock.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Jim Wiseman
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 12:38:04 am
Last Edited By Jim Wiseman on Aug 31, 2015 at 12:44:25 am

I understand, Aindreas. But for my situation, doing docs, no mograph or very little, ownership is way more important. Just can't hand it over to Adobe, even if they sent Walter Murch over to do the editing. Although the conversation might be splendid. I really am committed to fighting this rental or it's gone model. You are doing something way different than I am, and for you it might be worth it. I'm going to be working on these for years, and just can't see giving that big a chunk to Adobe for something that I already own can do well. I have a feeling there are others like me. If I must, I'll continue to learn X. Honestly, Media 100 could do what I need. Really hoping Resolve will save us from the clutches of Mr. Burn the Boats, but I have reached a point where I just need to get to work and not worry about the rug being jerked out. Must be my rebellious American soul. Boston Tea Partyish. Love mixed metaphors.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.1, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500, Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 1:23:17 am

yeah that's solid. not having knocked around half as much as you have. back of cars crossing bridges and that.

Them turning up at your door for the rent on the edit software feels fundamentally nasty. it's just a bad situation to be in.
But Premiere currently sells it to me. The second something addresses that market and lets me out - I'll be out the door.

But I'm inclined to think it's not to be had - you really should see Premiere lately. Adobe have laid murderous ground.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Dennis Radeke
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 12:11:34 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "you really should see Premiere lately. Adobe have laid murderous ground."

Thank you as always Aindreas.

Jim, I wish you all success on whatever software you land.


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Steve Connor
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 1:35:56 pm
Last Edited By Steve Connor on Aug 31, 2015 at 1:36:52 pm

[Dennis Radeke] "[Aindreas Gallagher] "you really should see Premiere lately. Adobe have laid murderous ground."

Thank you as always Aindreas.

Jim, I wish you all success on whatever software you land."


Bet you never imagined that Aindreas would be an advocate!

Just like to add my praise too, it's development pace has been stunning and I really enjoy using it now.


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Don Walker
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 1:11:08 am

Steve,

I visit this forum almost every day, (yet seldom post), and I've always had you pegged as being firmly in the FCPX camp; has that changed? If so, why? I ask because I am always tempted to move to Premiere, but stay with X because I find it a more enjoyable edit experience, and I find Motion far more intuitive than AE.

don walker
texarkana, texas

John 3:16


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Steve Connor
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 8:20:13 am

[Don Walker] "Steve,

I visit this forum almost every day, (yet seldom post), and I've always had you pegged as being firmly in the FCPX camp; has that changed? If so, why? I ask because I am always tempted to move to Premiere, but stay with X because I find it a more enjoyable edit experience, and I find Motion far more intuitive than AE.

don walker"


Hi Don, I am still firmly in the FCPX camp as, like you, I enjoy editing in it. I also prefer Motion but the lack of "send to Motion" has meant it doesn't matter what NLE I use. At the moment I'm about 50/50 on PPro and FCPX.

The main Production Company I do work for uses PPro, so I have to use it when the Projects are likely to be finished in-house, but there are other reasons I use it too:

I mostly work on an older 2008 Mac Pro with ATi 7950 Radeon card and SSD boot drive, FCPX works very well on this system apart from very slight delays in timeline operation, especially when there is waveform redrawing. Since the latest updates I don't get any beachballing but the slight delay persists, especially on longer projects. When I edit in PPro there are no delays at all, the timeline is buttery smooth. I know FCPX wants the latest hardware but even on my 2013MBP the timeline in PPro is smoother. I'm hoping this changes when I finally get a new Mac Pro

I don't have fear of tracks that some have, I do prefer the magnetic timeline, but going back to tracks is no big deal, especially when you can "pancake" timelines.

Customizeable workspaces in PPro are very useful, for some projects having more than one bin open at a time is an advantage and I love the fact that you can simply press the Tilde key and get a full screen timeline.

"Send to Audition" is very useful as is the excellent "warp stabilize"

I'm not a particularly organised Editor, so FCPX's organisational capabilities aren't such a big thing for me, although skimming in FCPX is!

I like the CC options in PPro, especially the new Lumetri Panel.

I also like to have more tools in my toolbox and I think the relatively small monthly rental cost is worth it, although If I had to choose one to use it would still be FCPX.

However if that rental cost starts to rise I will be quite happy to unsubscribe at any time.


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Dennis Radeke
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 10:21:27 am

[Steve Connor] "
Bet you never imagined that Aindreas would be an advocate!

Just like to add my praise too, it's development pace has been stunning and I really enjoy using it now."


Well, thank you Steve as well. We're not perfect, but I think Adobe is clear about that and our communication with customers as users is key to our advancement and your satisfaction.

As for Aindreas or others becoming advocates, I think anyone that looks at the situation with an open mind can see the value. That there are some folks that refuse to embrace/adapt/grow/evolve (choose your adjective) to changes in the market is certainly their prerogative.

Dennis - Adobe guy


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Scott Witthaus
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 5:17:24 pm

[Dennis Radeke] "I think anyone that looks at the situation with an open mind can see the value. That there are some folks that refuse to embrace/adapt/grow/evolve (choose your adjective) to changes in the market is certainly their prerogativ"

Now Dennis, I am surprised you would say that those of us who don't like Premiere or the "Adobe Way" have closed minds and refuse to "embrace/adapt/grow/evolve (choose your adjective)". Sounds like you are calling us 'dinosaurs'! :-) Many of use Premiere only when forced to. Many of us like to own our kit. Many of feel X is a superior product.

My question to the "enlightened ones" is what happens when Adobe raises the monthly rental fee? It's gonna happen, right? Sooner or later the way to raise revenue is charge higher prices. Everyone cool with $69 ($800+ per year) or $79 ($900+ per year) per month? $35/month for a single app? Seems extreme but once they have you, they have you. And if you're not cool with that, you lose what you paid for and your projects are gone? At least in Avid-land you own the last version you paid for.


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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 5:25:50 pm

[Scott Witthaus] "My question to the "enlightened ones" is what happens when Adobe raises the monthly rental fee? It's gonna happen, right? Sooner or later the way to raise revenue is charge higher prices."

Everyone keeps saying that, like it's inevitable. Yet over the years I've paid for Vimeo or my website host, the rates have either stayed the same or gone down. If you bought perpetual, in the case of most software, the sales price and/or upgrade costs were pretty level if not lowered over successive years. So historically there's not much basis for saying prices will increase. Maybe yes, maybe no.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Steve Connor
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 5:54:10 pm

[Scott Witthaus] "My question to the "enlightened ones" is what happens when Adobe raises the monthly rental fee? It's gonna happen, right? Sooner or later the way to raise revenue is charge higher prices. Everyone cool with $69 ($800+ per year) or $79 ($900+ per year) per month? "

No and at that point I and many others will unsubscribe and the model will no longer work

[Scott Witthaus] "And if you're not cool with that, you lose what you paid for and your projects are gone?"

I would have planned to switch NLE's for new projects and I won't care about the projects I have finished on PPro because they are finished! If I need to access them I'll pay a months subscription and pass the cost on to the client.

Do you seriously think that those of us who subscribe haven't considered our options?


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John Rofrano
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 7:26:48 pm

[Steve Connor] "If I need to access them I'll pay a months subscription and pass the cost on to the client."
I guess you missed the part about not being able to pay for a month!

While they list their subscription in monthly terms, the shortest contract is 1 year!!! It's like late night advertising scams that list 5 easy payments for $19.95 because no one would buy it if they said it cost $100.

I know this because my son is taking graphics design in college and while video editors might have a choice in tools, Graphics Designers DO NOT! If you don't know and own Photoshop and Illustrator you don't work in Graphics Design. Adobe has a tight monopoly on that.

So while in school I he wanted to pay for Adobe CC just for the 4 months of his semester but he could not. He had to subscribe for a full year. They did offer a student discount but that's when I found out that the monthly fee is a marketing gimmick.

~jr

http://www.johnrofrano.com
http://www.vasst.com



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Walter Soyka
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 7:33:55 pm

[John Rofrano] "I guess you missed the part about not being able to pay for a month! "

An individual monthly plan, no annual commitment, is $74.99/mo.


[John Rofrano] "I know this because my son is taking graphics design in college... So while in school I he wanted to pay for Adobe CC just for the 4 months of his semester but he could not. He had to subscribe for a full year. They did offer a student discount but that's when I found out that the monthly fee is a marketing gimmick."

The student plan, which heavily discounted and pales in comparison to the cost of textbooks (or traditional collegiate social lubricants), is not available monthly. Regular plans are.

Walter Soyka
Designer & Mad Scientist at Keen Live [link]
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
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Walter Soyka
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 5:54:16 pm

[Scott Witthaus] "My question to the "enlightened ones" is what happens when Adobe raises the monthly rental fee? It's gonna happen, right? Sooner or later the way to raise revenue is charge higher prices"

Offering less (or the same) but charging more will almost certainly start a death spiral. (See also: Quark.) There's another way: offering more and charging for it.

Instead of squeezing their customers until they're gone, Adobe can continuously monetize their subscriber base by layering additional products and services on top of the core CC offering, for additional fees. They can make more money by making their customers happier, providing them more of what they need and want.

More of this here:
https://forums.creativecow.net/thread/378/10800#10818

Walter Soyka
Designer & Mad Scientist at Keen Live [link]
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
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Tim Wilson
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 6:19:04 pm

[Walter Soyka] "Instead of squeezing their customers until they're gone, Adobe can continuously monetize their subscriber base by layering additional products and services on top of the core CC offering, for additional fees. "

See Fotolia: Adobe spent $800 million to buy it (in cash no less) and there's been no increase to offset. The belief is that it will add enough value, with enough ease of use and access, that the investment will monetize itself with in-app purchases.

To Oliver's point disputing the notion that price increases are inevitable, there's no model anywhere in this industry for that being the case. Not cameras, not storage, not I/O, not standards converters, not switchers, and definitely not software. It just doesn't happen. Ever.

Am I wrong about this? Can anyone point to even one example? I'm sure somebody can, but I absolutely cannot.

(Cell phones and cable bills aren't anywhere near this industry's product lineup, so I don't think I'm being reasonable to exclude them.)

The risk that people describe is real enough to be worth talking about, but not realistic for Adobe to actually DO. A subscription model has no friction on the way out for anyone but the handful of people who NEED access to a no-longer-supported version years from now. Those people obviously exist, and at least two of them who ACTUALLY do this, rather than stating a theoretical concern or philosophical stand, regularly post here. Their concerns are both valid and accurate, and not at all to be trifled with...

...but well outside mainstream use cases. So those folks should indeed not go this route, but for the rest of the world, it's easy enough to fit this into the toolbox....and easy enough to leave if the price gets out of hand, the value is no longer there, or because something more compelling comes along.

But with Adobe needing to keep customers around for four years and three months to equal the price of one new box of CS with no upgrades, it's in their interest to keep up the pace, keep the quality within normal ranges, keep adding value, and NOT raising the price.

The subscription model isn't at all new, even in this industry, and certainly in other industries, but significant price increases for anything related to this industry are all but unprecedented.

Right?


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 7:56:11 pm

[Tim Wilson] "(Cell phones and cable bills aren't anywhere near this industry's product lineup, so I don't think I'm being reasonable to exclude them.)"

Sorry - below turned into a screed a little - but - I do kind of wonder about that. We all know in our bones there are no market functioning competitors to PS and AE and ID and ILL. Nor are there likely to be ones cohesive enough that we can all wander off anytime soon, given the facilities would have wanted to have made the same decisions? And how likely is that realistically?

I think there is a cable risk with adobe if I'm being honest. It's already sixty channels in the package with maybe 6-8 each discipline generally touches on any regular basis. I think it's a bit ESPN or SKY Sports in a padded cable package in a way - adobe know they have 4-5 mortal locks that allow them to set master suite prices for the subscription.

[Tim Wilson] "Not cameras, not storage, not I/O, not standards converters, not switchers,"

The thing is - none of those are a subscription scenario. Some, say cameras, have been rental in the past, but it's a chunk of metal electronics and glass you make use of and then pop back. People don't subscribe to cameras or storage. Photoshop isn't a camera, neither is after effects or premiere. They are software creation tools used daily by millions in a million different use cases, and out of those three, the only one with valid competition is premiere. And Adobe know, because they were good enough to build it for us, that the taste of avid or X to the classical FCP editor is bllleeeuuugghhh.

I think walter is really smart, and he thinks they won't go to town on the subscription. But, leaving the hand wringing aside, you'd wonder about human nature in corporations. They're still not making anything like what they should be making from CC. They're not in this for the good for their health. I've lost track, but I'm pretty sure CC PS+LR bundle discount city isn't getting the profit where it should be. Something's got to give sooner or later. I think the board still view subscription increase as radioactive - and I'm not sure when they will feel clear ground. But subscriptions without valid core competition increase in price - I'd almost say that's human nature gravity. We can walk away - but where exactly are we walking to in the context of PS or AE? Ultimately they can set any price they think can be borne. Getting people to maybe buy from their stock photos instead of shutterstock etc isn't going to really move the billion dollar needle.

Not like a sweet 10% subscription increase. Or two. Sooner or later they're going to begin staring at that subscription price and letting their minds go. They're not amazon. Sooner or later they need to start making the profit numbers they pitched investors three years ago. The subscriber uptake is fine, but the cash value is not?

Unless I'm totally wrong about all of that. My days of reading every adobe investor report are a bit behind me...

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Bill Davis
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 8:13:22 pm

OMG.
I agree with virtually everything Andreas wrote here.
(I wonder if the internet yellow pages has listings for Exorcists?)

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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 8:41:01 pm

Bill, this might be the time to do our long agreed switch where I argue X and you argue Premiere. The bookies odds are actually pretty sweet right now.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Steve Connor
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 8:44:07 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "Bill, this might be the time to do our long agreed switch where I argue X and you argue Premiere. The bookies odds are actually pretty sweet right now."

(Sound of Four Horsemen approaching)


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Bill Davis
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 10:38:56 pm

Shuusssh...
Nobody but the "artistic" ever pay to see the show if the characters aren't super easy to understand.
If we ever meet - first order of business would be to flip a coin to see who gets to wear the white or black cowboy hat.

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


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Bill Davis
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 9:36:31 pm

[Tim Wilson] "Am I wrong about this? Can anyone point to even one example? I'm sure somebody can, but I absolutely cannot.
"


In fairness Tim, the pool for possible examples would be the business practices of the past - and I'm not sure they're AS relevant as we move forward into the new model of pervasive and almost cost free distribution that selling IP today enables.

In the modern era, when all is said and done, Wall Street wants ONE thing. "comp sales growth." Period. Without that, you lose investor mindshare fast unless you're a startup. Now Adobe has kinda sorta has been a startup again for the past few years - but ONLY with respect to it's revenue model.

Companies get a pass on profits IF Wall Street sees a long term play. But eventually, Wall Streets' patience wears thin. And they go right back to Comp Sales Growth to figure out if you're worth the investment.

You can do that with continually adding new customers (and Adobe does that with LOTS of promo "sign up" marketing). And, of course, in the old style business world you can do that through controlling costs - but costs are already now close to zero in the digital IP distribution world so that's really not sensible. So you are left with ONLY one tool in your "increase comp sales performance" toolbox - price increases.

Yes it's a scary tool. It can blow up in your face. But if it's the only tool you have - and you NEED to show revenue growth to please the bean counters - what do you do?

I agree that you can try to squeeze more revenue out of a captive customer base with incremental sales, but I believe that can only go so far. The lifeblood is expansion. Big healthy expansion.

I hope I'm wrong and that somehow the universe of potential new subscribers remains large enough to support continued revenue growth for Adobe without incremental price increases. But I'm not confident.

Your focus on what has historically worked is completely correct, but flawed IMO, because the business landscape is so different today.

But maybe I'm wrong. Time will tell.

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 10:24:55 pm

[Bill Davis] "Your focus on what has historically worked is completely correct, but flawed IMO,"

Bill, with the best will in the world, given your relative brain with industry understanding, and his brain with industry understanding, that sentence will not end well.

Even without him replying Bill - it still didn't end well.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Bill Davis
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 12:41:55 am

First person - "You must tighten the F connector on the back of your TV or you'll risk intermittent static"
(Historically perfectly correct but flawed advice cuz...)
Second person- "My AppleTV is wireless - what's an F connector?"

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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 12:49:06 am

[Bill Davis] "Second person- "My AppleTV is wireless - what's an F connector?""

But.... Just to be in keeping with the historical theme and relevance. That TV setup with the tall antenna out back and the coax cost MORE than the Apple TV and flat panel of today. Cost went down, not up.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Bill Davis
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 1:11:29 am
Last Edited By Bill Davis on Sep 2, 2015 at 1:12:54 am

Cost of factory generated goods? Absolutely. Cost of software as a service in the new connected business model? Nobody has a clue.

Could be that every single "rental model enamored business executive" in our lifetimes decouples their perpetual charges from the general economy and even if inflation is still a real thing in some sectors - they choose to "hold the line" and forgo bumping subscription prices for any reason, forever. Could happen, right? The thing is that you've now agreed to allow them 12 annual AUTOMATIC "price change opportunities" via the standard rental contract - or at least one every year on your anniversary if you pay the year upfront.

Advantage vendor. Disadvantage consumer. Again.

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Walter Soyka
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 1:54:55 am

[Bill Davis] "Advantage vendor. Disadvantage consumer. Again."

I don't think it's so cut and dried. Everyone here focuses on how they'd be tied to Adobe by subscription, and what if Adobe does something dreadful? That's fear talking. It's understandable; there is a certain loss of control with subscription vs. perpetual license. But is it rational? If Adobe raises their prices to the point where your business can't support it, think of how many other customers would be similarly affected.

Adobe is tied to their subscriber base. Going all-in on subscription is a huge risk for Adobe. If Adobe fails to keep a customer on subscription for at least four years and nine months, they will have lost money on that relationship compared to making a CS6 Master Collection sale.

Put another way, Adobe has to convince you to give them money 5 times annually (or 38 times monthly) for what you get in CC before matching that with a perpetual license sale. It's even steeper with the photography deal: Ps CS6 was $700 and Lr 4 was $150, so you have to subscribe more than 7 times annually before Adobe matches the revenue they would have made with a perpetual sale.

And that doesn't count upgrades! Presumably you do expect some new functionality in five to seven years or using a product, right?

If Adobe quarks their customers, they are absolutely hosed. CC is a volume play, and the subscriber base is the only thing of value Adobe has anymore. Adobe cannot fail to consistently delight their creative customers without risking their lion's share of their business.

Compare that to an Apple or a BMD which barely charge anything for their creative software. Adobe is the only company of these three with any real market accountability to their creative software customers.

Advantage consumer?

Walter Soyka
Designer & Mad Scientist at Keen Live [link]
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
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John Rofrano
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 11:39:29 am

[Walter Soyka] "Advantage consumer?"
That depends on the customer:

[+] Definitely an advantage for new customers who need more than one product in the suite. Instead of coming up with a $1500 capital investment in software, you pay $49/mo expense and, as you said, you are ahead of the game for the first 5 years.

[+] Definitely an advantage for existing customers who are all-in and upgrade every year anyway. $49/mo is the same price as an annual $600 upgrade fee so these customers probably are not affected and joined immediately.

[-] Not an advantage for a new/existing customer who did not need the entire suite. So a customer who use to just buy After Effects can no longer do that. They must pay for the entire bundle whether they need it or not and pay a lot more on an annual basis than they would have with the old business model.

[-] Not an advantage for existing customers who did not upgrade every year like myself. I was on a two release upgrade plan. I would only upgrade Adobe CS every other version. So instead of spending $600 a year on the upgrade I spent $600 every other year or the equivalent of $300 a year on Adobe CS. Mostly because I didn't use the entire suite, I just wanted one or two tools. So for me, Adobe CC was twice the price!

So the only customers that subscriptions advantaged were those who were all-in on Adobe anyway. Those of us who were casual upgraders or only needed one product like After Effects are severely disadvantaged. Not because of the subscription model itself, as much as Adobe's one-size-fits-all attitude like the cable companies i.e., you need to buy the whole bundle or get lost... so I got lost. Adobe didn't want me as a customer because they did nothing to appeal to my business needs.

That last statement is worth repeating:

Some people are opposed to the subscription model itself

Some people are opposed to a subscription model that forces you to pay for a bundle of things that you don't need

I am the second type of person. I would gladly subscribe to just what I need when I need it. That's what the Cloud Service model is all about. A utility model much like gas and electric where you pay as you go. That is NOT Adobe's model. Adobe's model is like the cable company where you bundle things that people don't want to make your advertising seem like you're giving them more when they actually want less!

~jr

http://www.johnrofrano.com
http://www.vasst.com



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Walter Soyka
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 1:25:02 pm

[John Rofrano] "I would gladly subscribe to just what I need when I need it. That's what the Cloud Service model is all about. A utility model much like gas and electric where you pay as you go. That is NOT Adobe's model. Adobe's model is like the cable company where you bundle things that people don't want"

Actually, Adobe offers exactly this as an option. You can subscribe to a single app for $30/mo with no commitment, or $20/mo with an annual commitment.

Walter Soyka
Designer & Mad Scientist at Keen Live [link]
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
@keenlive [twitter]   |   RenderBreak [blog]   |   Profile [LinkedIn]


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Jim Wiseman
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 5:45:52 pm

More than one application, however, and it quickly becomes more economically logical to take the whole, for most, unnecessary ball of wax at the full boat price. Most need more than one app.

And for the I don't know how many times, it quits working when you quit paying. As far as the cable analogy (simile?) I don't need to see a particular football game or a TV series 3 years from now, most likely never. My work I revisit often and don't want to have to pay for it every time I do. Cable is not a good comparison.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.1, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500, Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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Jim Wiseman
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 5:47:42 pm

More than one application, however, and it quickly becomes more economically logical to take the whole, for most, unnecessary ball of wax at the full boat price. Most need more than one app.

And for the I don't know how many times, it quits working when you quit paying. As far as the cable analogy (simile?) I don't need to see a particular sporting event or a TV series 3 years from now, most likely never. My work I revisit often and don't want to have to pay for it every time I do. Cable is not a good comparison.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.1, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500, Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 6:35:50 pm

[Jim Wiseman] "My work I revisit often and don't want to have to pay for it every time I do"

I completely support what you are saying, but let me compare this to photography. If I shoot a bunch of stills, process them in Lightroom and export adjusted versions, then aren't the only items that are really important to me the originals and the exported variations? If Lightroom went away in the future and I want to make new variations, wouldn't I simply use another photo processing app, load the originals and create new variations?

I guess I don't see the importance or sanctity everyone is placing on what amounts to middleware in the process. To me - rental or not - is merely a business decision that works for some but not others. I just don't see how it impedes the process.

Just wondering.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Jeff Kirkland
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 8:00:11 pm

Oliver, the problem with the photo processing analogy is that there is a lot more work involved in say, an AE motion graphics piece, than there is typically is in processing a photo. And, while there are any number of applications that do what photoshop does, and even support photoshop files, there's no other program that cam load an AE project.

Usne any of Adobes video applications and you're locked in to paying the subscription for the life of the project and beyond.

Jeff Kirkland | Video Producer | Southern Creative Media | Melbourne Australia
http://www.southerncreative.com.au | G+: http://gplus.to/jeffkirkland | Twitter: @jeffkirkland


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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 8:18:59 pm

[Jeff Kirkland] "there's no other program that cam load an AE project"

I understand that. I'm just not following the argument that you constantly go back into AE to keep tweaking on a project. Render out the work and you are done.

[Jeff Kirkland] "Use any of Adobes video applications and you're locked in to paying the subscription for the life of the project and beyond."

I'm not disputing that, but it's a business decision. In many cases, obviously a philosophical one, but that's a small percentage of folks. Once the project is done, you aren't locked in. Only if you need to revisit the edit or the composite. And the edit side is pretty minor, depending on how you've organized things.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 12:19:31 am

[Oliver Peters] "Render out the work and you are done.
"


never. You have taken a set of decisions that might go to full javascript and any number of other things that exist between the entry and exit point. It's not a chemical emulsion. Ok maybe it's not a cable package analogy but we all know we do everything inside a software architecture that sits at the mid-point. That is now, with adobe, a rental space. To call it problematic is an understatement. We are renting the room we walk into where we can perform singular creative actions that validate people paying us.

Adobe have decided they own that room. And we owe them rent for the use of the room. To call it problematic beggars the actual use of the word problematic.

the fact that adobe decided they could make that social decision for millions of creatives is deeply problematic.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 12:25:27 am

[Aindreas Gallagher] "the fact that adobe decided they could make that social decision for millions of creatives is deeply problematic."

Is this your alter ego responding?

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 12:47:56 am

Did I adore walking into the rental tools room? You wipe only a single tear sure.
No one pops balloons when you walk into Shanatanyu rent your tools town.

What they mostly seem to do is ask you for the rent. Adobe's only concern now is asking for their rental money.
Google looks for advertising, adobe opted for tenants.
They looked to co-opt customers into tenants because they realised they were broadly sociopathic as a corporate group and they felt the social wound opening.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 12:57:44 am

[Aindreas Gallagher] "Adobe's only concern now is asking for their rental money"

Well...... In fairness they are working at a very fast development pace. Probably more than any other developer except Blackmagic Design. They are certainly offering a lot of value for that rental.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 12:58:42 pm

I just wanted to make sure anyone reading the thread would have no clue where I stood on CC.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Bill Davis
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 4:50:08 pm

[Oliver Peters] "
Well...... In fairness they are working at a very fast development pace. Probably more than any other developer except Blackmagic Design. They are certainly offering a lot of value for that rental.
"


Second part of this negates the value of the first, my friend. If Blackmagic can sustain the same development pace as Adobe using a different business model - it tells us that the Adobe model is not the only viable one. So it makes their decision to go forced rental as a business CHOICE - which is their right.

It's also our right as customers to judge that choice.

I also have to take issue with my dear friend Walters contention that market forces will be effective at constraining Adobe management from going too far in seeking incremental sales growth via price increases. In the modern era (the last 50 years, say) what happens when terrible executive decisions seriously damage a large company? The answer is that the senior management teams walk away from the smoking ruins with huge severance checks and pats on the back for taking one for the team (the institutional investor class) and take a few weeks on St. Kits before their next gig. Their is no taint of failure if you can make a case that you failed trying to squeeze out more profits. We see that constantly in modern business. The only ones who are exposed to the risks are the line employees who are getting by paycheck to paycheck. That's modern capitalism - like it or not.

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 7:34:39 pm

[Bill Davis] " If Blackmagic can sustain the same development pace as Adobe using a different business model - it tells us that the Adobe model is not the only viable one"

BMD has far, far fewer software products to develop.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Bill Davis
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 7:52:44 pm

[Oliver Peters] "
BMD has far, far fewer software products to develop."


Absolutely. But that was PRECISELY my first issue with the Adobe old model. I remember spending a few frustrating hours trying to analyze and re-analyze all their "bundle" offerings trying to figure out which of the options had the least "waste" in the form of programs in the bundle that I would likely never need! It was CRAZY. I couldn't pick and choose what I wanted, everything was "Prix fixe, with NO substations" or pay a big relative price jump for ordering ala carte.

BMD - AND Apple, BTW - seem to like the more modern "efficient assortment" thinking. Fewer products - closely targeted to meeting the needs of their core users.

I find I prefer that because I look back at my personal history and my old hard drives are littered with software that I "imagined" I'd learn and use - but later never touched.

If you use ALL the stuff in the Creative Suite, it's precisely where you belong and good for you. If you use just a few, you might consider it inefficient to pay $600 a year for too many capabilities that don't actually give you a return on your investment.

But that's up to each editor.

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 8:10:24 pm

[Bill Davis] "But that was PRECISELY my first issue with the Adobe old model. I remember spending a few frustrating hours trying to analyze and re-analyze all their "bundle" offerings"

You were overthinking it. But in any case, that's no longer an issue. Is it? ;-)

[Bill Davis] "BMD - AND Apple, BTW - seem to like the more modern "efficient assortment" thinking. Fewer products - closely targeted to meeting the needs of their core users. "

And subsidized by hardware sales.

[Bill Davis] "If you use ALL the stuff in the Creative Suite, it's precisely where you belong and good for you."

I'd say most editors use what would be the equivalent to the old Production Premium bundle. But... Let's say you want to build a new website. Many are finding that having access to Muse is coming in very handy and something they would not have necessarily picked under a pick & choose model.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Tim Wilson
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 8:21:48 pm

I was working on my post while you fellas were going four more rounds. Copy-pasting, I'm willing to do. Edit, no. LOL Still mostly germane, and mine has memes.

+++++++++++++++++++++

[Oliver Peters] "BMD has far, far fewer software products to develop."

They also don't need software to do for BMD what software does for Adobe.

None of us will ever know for sure because BMD is privately held, but I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that, unlike Adobe, BMD is NOT the 7th-largest software company in the world.

Oh wait, and public vs. private.

Did I say public vs. private?

I meant private vs. public.

Neither of which has anything of use to inform the other.

Oh wait, and scale of use cases. You might think that this doesn't factor into cost, but it's HUGE. There's a relatively small number of DaVinci and Fusion customers, and a relatively few ways that those customers use that software.

Relative to, say, Photoshop. Software so ubiquitous that there's a verb. Tens of millions of users, I'm guessing. Even aside from teenagers making collages on tumblr, let's make a list of the professional constituencies that Photoshop serves that are outside ours. I'll start with medicine, law enforcement, and geology. Who wants to go next?

(And hey, ho, let's go! A Joey Ramone collage from tumblr!)




I mean, we could play this game all day with any Adobe application.

There's literally absolutely nothing in BMD's experience that's applicable to ANYONE. They're the picture in the dictionary next to "sui generis," right under the picture of Madonna.





And it's more true for software than anything else. Blackmagic's approach isn't like anyone else's.

Actually, except maybe a freemium app in the app store. Buy the pro version to remove the ads, or add 8K support, nbd.

We could say the same for Apple vs Adobe and Avid. How come Apple can sell an NLE for a couple hundred bucks? Because that's all Apple needs for it to make. If they needed it to make more, they'd charge more.

I'll stop now, but srsly.



[Oliver Peters] "[Bill Davis] "....the Adobe model is not the only viable one""

Has anybody ever said that? Nobody here. Certainly not Adobe.

The question has NEVER been whether it's the ONLY viable strategy. Companies pursuing different strategies, even big, publicly-traded software companies, are as numerous as the sands along the shore.

Now, if you want to talk about something like if it's viable for YOU, well, not much of a debate there. You're the only authority on that.

But there's also not much of a debate trying to compare is a private company with few software products balanced against an array of hardware, few use cases, etc., vs a public company that only sells software, and lots of it, to a stupefyingly wide range of customers.

At least apples and oranges are both fruit. This is more like apples and artichokes.

Or apples and cars, both of which can be used to keep doctors away, but not much else in common at all.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 8:37:56 pm

Just have time for a drive by posting..

1. As Oliver says, BM/Apple have a v-e-r-y different business model than Adobe. Adobe doesn't sell Adobe brand hardware as a requirement for the software to fully function (or even function at all).

2. You can buy Creative Cloud subscription cards (almost like a gift card I guess) at places like Best Buy so if you want to buy a number of years in advance just buy some of those cards.

3. I do wish Adobe would offer CC suites the same way they had the CS suites. Though that might mean a price bump for the current 'Master Collection' to make room for the suites.

4. Jim and I talked a lot about this in the CC or Not forum, but not everybody needs to revisit projects on a regular basis (if at all). I mean, once a TV show, movie or web series gets released then that's typically that. For me, I can't think of any project I've finished and delivered in the last 10yrs that I've gone back to at a later date. That's just not something that really happens in my neck of the woods.


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Shawn Miller
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 9:40:18 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "2. You can buy Creative Cloud subscription cards (almost like a gift card I guess) at places like Best Buy so if you want to buy a number of years in advance just buy some of those cards."

That's actually a great idea, Andrew. My only question is, if the gift cards expire. Will a card bought at the 2015 subscription price be valid in 2025? If so, this may be a serious option for me.

Shawn



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John Rofrano
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 10:55:24 pm

[Shawn Miller] "That's actually a great idea, Andrew. My only question is, if the gift cards expire. Will a card bought at the 2015 subscription price be valid in 2025? If so, this may be a serious option for me."
They sound like US Savings Bonds... "the longer you keep them, the greater they mature"

Hey maybe there will be Adobe CC Card scalpers. Someone could make a business out of buying them now and selling them later at a future discounted price that still yields a profit above today's price. lol.

~jr

http://www.johnrofrano.com
http://www.vasst.com



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John Rofrano
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 10:07:49 pm

[Walter Soyka] "You can subscribe to a single app for $30/mo with no commitment, or $20/mo with an annual commitment."
I could not find that anywhere on their site back when I needed it (last year) and I looked as hard as I could. I wanted to subscribe to InDesign just for the 4 months that my son needed it for school and I couldn't find any way to do that. I wound up finding an older copy on Amazon and bought that outright instead. It was just to get his homework done without having to drive to the campus.

They must have changed that recently because I see it now on the Select A Plan page but prior to that you could only subscribe to Photoshop separately or the whole suite for $49. I'm glad their plans are becoming more flexible.

~jr

http://www.johnrofrano.com
http://www.vasst.com



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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 10:43:07 pm

[John Rofrano] "They must have changed that recently because I see it now on the Select A Plan page but prior to that you could only subscribe to Photoshop separately or the whole suite for $49"

Nope. It's been that way since the addition of subscription. Single app options were there, it just didn't make financial sense for more than one app.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Walter Soyka
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 10:45:13 pm

I think Adobe has had single-app subscription continuously since CS6 (before the CC relaunch) -- but you are absolutely right they made it ridiculously hard to find! I think they've recently redesigned the plans page, so it's a lot friendlier now.

Walter Soyka
Designer & Mad Scientist at Keen Live [link]
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
@keenlive [twitter]   |   RenderBreak [blog]   |   Profile [LinkedIn]


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Dennis Radeke
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 11:05:30 am

[John Rofrano] "I could not find that anywhere on their site back when I needed it (last year) and I looked as hard as I could."

It's right here and has been since it began: https://creative.adobe.com/plans

[John Rofrano] "I wanted to subscribe to InDesign just for the 4 months that my son needed it for school and I couldn't find any way to do that."

As Walter mentioned, education plans are not offered monthly but are so heavily discounted for the year, you still make out in the end.

HTH,
Dennis - Adobe guy


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Shawn Miller
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 4:30:19 pm

[Dennis Radeke] "It's right here and has been since it began: https://creative.adobe.com/plans"

Slightly off the subject... but can you pay for months or years in advance? Like John said, he originally only needed ID for four months. It would be nice to be able to pay for three or five years up front. A ten year subscription with a 10% loyalty discount would be even better. Maybe you could pass that along, if you happen to meet with the CFO at some point. :-)

Shawn



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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 4:34:38 pm

yeah. i do it as a yearly onetime payment. It's simpler - it just means you need to think about it for a few weeks beforehand, bung the money and then forget about it for the next 11 months.

If I had the option I strongly suspect I'd do two years in one go. Then it's even less to think about. As a tenant it's basically a slightly more reliable lease term.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Shawn Miller
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 5:47:44 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] " As a tenant it's basically a slightly more reliable lease term."

Definitely. I'm not wild about the subscription only model, but if I had the choice, I would rather hedge against inflation as much as possible by subscribing as far into the future as I could.

Shawn



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Jeremy Garchow
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 11:21:06 pm

[Shawn Miller] "but can you pay for months or years in advance? Like John said, he originally only needed ID for four months. It would be nice to be able to pay for three or five years up front. A ten year subscription with a 10% loyalty discount would be even better. "

Are you proposing to buy content creation software futures?

What a country!

:)


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Tim Wilson
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 11:37:34 pm

[Jeremy Garchow] "Are you proposing to buy content creation software futures?"

More like Forever Stamps. Tuck a few away for a rainy day, forget about 'em for a few years until you come across 'em while you're digging in the back of that one kitchen drawer where you think you might have tucked the spare garage door opener.


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Shawn Miller
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 4, 2015 at 1:37:29 am

[John Rofrano] "They sound like US Savings Bonds... "the longer you keep them, the greater they mature"

Hey maybe there will be Adobe CC Card scalpers. Someone could make a business out of buying them now and selling them later at a future discounted price that still yields a profit above today's price. lol."



[Jeremy Garchow] "Are you proposing to buy content creation software futures?

What a country!"


[Jeremy Garchow] "Are you proposing to buy content creation software futures?

What a country!"


[Tim Wilson] "[Jeremy Garchow] "Are you proposing to buy content creation software futures?"

More like Forever Stamps. Tuck a few away for a rainy day, forget about 'em for a few years until you come across 'em while you're digging in the back of that one kitchen drawer where you think you might have tucked the spare garage door opener."


LOL, when you all put it that way...

Seriously though, it might not be a bad idea to tuck a few away in case you temporarily lose your income down the road. I'm guessing that at some point the subscription will get a little more expensive, and our dollars buy a little less. I like the idea of being able to pay for a few month's or a year's subscription at today's rate. Then again, who knows, subscriptions may get cheaper, or Adobe may offer less expensive packages by then. :-)

Shawn



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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 7:21:22 pm

[Scott Witthaus] "Many of feel X is a superior product."

er, you've got to be joking me mate. Not to go football teams, but premiere kicks its ass into next week..

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Charlie Austin
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 7:52:12 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "er, you've got to be joking me mate. Not to go football teams, but premiere kicks its ass into next week.."

No, it doesn't. (typed while working in Premiere) You're starting to sound suspiciously like a fanboy Aindreas. :-)

-------------------------------------------------------------

~ My FCPX Babbling blog ~
~"It is a poor craftsman who blames his tools."~
~"The function you just attempted is not yet implemented"~


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 8:55:08 pm

[Charlie Austin] "No, it doesn't. (typed while working in Premiere) You're starting to sound suspiciously like a fanboy Aindreas. :-)"

I'm a proper fan of premiere. Not the subscription I was bundled into. I genuinely don't understand how you can feel X gets within 100 yards of premiere as it currently stands. You work in short form like me. Premiere is industrial strength short form. Just on keyframing alone Charlie. nevermind the configurability of the interface. The keyframing apparatus in X is quasimodo material. No one should ever have to live like that. And I have to figure you're keyframing push pulls and text transforms half the living day. Why should anyone have to live like that?

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Charlie Austin
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 9:25:40 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "Just on keyframing alone Charlie. nevermind the configurability of the interface."

Oh, I'll definitely give you those points. But really, both apps have their strengths and weaknesses. I guess if I did more key framing I might feel differently, but I spend more time rearranging bits in the timeline, slogging through footage looking for the 15 frame shot I know is somewhere, previewing A and V effects, creating titles, cheating dialog, doing speed changes to audio to get mx/sfx cuts to work etc. IMO, X beats the pants off Pr for that sort of thing. When I'm in Pr I keep X open with a mirror project 'cuz it's exponentially easier to find needles in the X haystack, and go right to it in Pr. Especially auditioning SFX.

No point in NLE wars though... I use 'em both. :-)

-------------------------------------------------------------

~ My FCPX Babbling blog ~
~"It is a poor craftsman who blames his tools."~
~"The function you just attempted is not yet implemented"~


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Dennis Radeke
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 11:38:32 pm

[Scott Witthaus] "Sounds like you are calling us 'dinosaurs'! :-)"

Certainly not! My mistake - perhaps I didn't guzzle enough coffee when I typed it up this morning.

I was speaking of the market in general and not Adobe specifically. I would never for a moment imply that anyone using products other than Adobe would be less than awesome.

Dennis - Adobe Guy


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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 12:33:02 pm

I think you are missing Jim's fundamental point. Premiere Pro could be the greatest tool on the planet and make coffee for you in the morning, too - it doesn't matter. Jim wants the ability to own the tools he needs for creation in perpetuity. That's simply not possible with Adobe any longer, for better or worse. Right now, that option on the Mac only exists with Apple, Avid, Media 100, Resolve, or Lightworks (I think).

As long as you are using a tool for commercial work, then an argument can be made for the rental model. But when your work is a labor of love or pro bono or for some possible return way down the road, then you really have to decide whether staying with a subscription makes any sense at all.

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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John Rofrano
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 3:33:11 pm

[Oliver Peters] "As long as you are using a tool for commercial work, then an argument can be made for the rental model. But when your work is a labor of love or pro bono or for some possible return way down the road, then you really have to decide whether staying with a subscription makes any sense at all."
Agreed. The rental model only makes sense for companies that would rather have their software be an immediate expense instead of capital that gets amortized across years. For independent freelance editors, it only works while money is coming in. As soon as you fall on hard times, you loose your ability to get work because you can't afford to rent the tools to get the work you need. That's why I don't use Adobe tools anymore.

~jr

http://www.johnrofrano.com
http://www.vasst.com



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Steve Connor
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 3:44:50 pm

[John Rofrano] "As soon as you fall on hard times, you loose your ability to get work because you can't afford to rent the tools to get the work you need. That's why I don't use Adobe tools anymore.
"


Which is why I use FCPX and Motion as well as Adobe tools, I like to have options. I do understand why people like you and Jim don't want to subscribe though.


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 1:12:22 pm

I know, but if I can't find two days billing in a calendar year to put aside for the entire CC suite and behance and the iOS stuff - I've got more serious problems as a freelancer than the subscription.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Gary Huff
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 2:41:05 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "I've got more serious problems as a freelancer than the subscription."

Ditto.


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Gary Huff
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 2:40:37 pm

[John Rofrano] "As soon as you fall on hard times, you loose your ability to get work because you can't afford to rent the tools to get the work you need."

Because given the choice between a creative toolset and your cable subscription, well, of course, you absolutely need cable.


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John Rofrano
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 4:23:40 pm
Last Edited By John Rofrano on Sep 1, 2015 at 4:24:54 pm

[Gary Huff] "Because given the choice between a creative toolset and your cable subscription, well, of course, you absolutely need cable."
It's interesting that you bring up cable because customers are telling cable companies that they want more choice and less bundles and Adobe is doing *exactly* the opposite by making you pay a subscription for lots of tools that you don't need or want! Indeed this is exactly why people ARE canceling their cable subscriptions.

No, I'm thinking ahead of the slippery slope that supporting a subscription model brings. What happens when it's not just Adobe? What happens when every piece of software on your computer is only available by subscription and they all want $49 a month or some amount of money so you are now paying hundreds, even thousands of dollars a month to keep all of your tools running. This Pandora's box could be far more than a cable bill in the end. I will not encourage this behavior so I vote with my wallet. No subscription software that doesn't include a buy-out clause for me.

BTW, I do support maintenance contracts and I have maintenance contracts for software that I use. The difference is, if I choose to not renew the contract, the software doesn't stop working. That is what I cannot agree to. If I don't feel a new version has anything that benefits me, why should I be force to buy it? The choice should be mine to do what's right for my business... not Adobe's business.

~jr

http://www.johnrofrano.com
http://www.vasst.com



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Gary Huff
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 8:12:40 pm

[John Rofrano] "The choice should be mine to do what's right for my business... not Adobe's business.
"


It is Adobe's business if you want to use the software that they purchased and developed over the decades. They can make it available however they damn well please. The only choice is if you want to use it or not.

Some of us do want to use it. And if you don't, good luck to you.


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John Rofrano
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 12:15:57 am

[Gary Huff] "They can make it available however they damn well please. The only choice is if you want to use it or not."
Well... that was my point. I choose to use FCP X and Motion and Affinity Photo and Affinity Designer instead of Adobe CC and it's working out just fine for me and it lets me control my business expense because I decide when and if to upgrade.

~jr

http://www.johnrofrano.com
http://www.vasst.com



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Tim Wilson
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 5:07:22 pm

[Gary Huff] "Because given the choice between a creative toolset and your cable subscription, well, of course, you absolutely need cable."

Without commenting on John's post, you jest (I think), but I found this to be the case when I was enticing people to subscribe to cable in the early 80s. I still had to explain to people what it was (no sir, nothing to buy -- you just pay monthly, and when you're ready to stop paying, we just come get the box).

Frankly, back then, there wasn't much else to explain. No ESPN yet (it had been founded, but not widely available -- the only real sports channel was WTBS!!! And nobody in Texas gave a shit about the Braves or Falcons, I assure you), no Disney Channel (my boss left to be their first salesguy), no CNN, no Weather Channel (our local office pointed a camera at an old school radar screen), and obviously nothing that came along after 1982.

So one day, I was following a lead from somebody who called in wanting to know more. I rolled down a dirt road, pulled up to a house with a bowed roof, no front door, a car up on blocks, in a neighborhood tightly packed with similar houses and, classist bastard that I was, I thought, no way, this can't be right.

There was an old man on the porch with eyes completely clouded over by glaucoma, and he called out, "Who's there?" When I told him, he was practically giddy.

I didn't ask the obvious question (WHAT TH----???), but he said even before I could ask: "For less than the cost of a single trip to McDonald's for me, my wife, and four kids, I get a whole month's worth of TV, and keep the kids in the house and out of trouble. Maybe even some other people's kids too. The whole neighborhood gets safer and more pleasant because *I* have cable. Of course what's most important to me is MY kids. I can just keep my kids under the roof a little longer --"

--and he leans forward --

"-- where I can keep AN EYE ON THEM" as he points to his cloudy eyes and laughs. And he signed up for everything we had.

I bring up this long story to underscore Aindreas's point that, if it's awesome, you pay for it, and the price you pay for CS is (thanks to inflation) still less than a couple of fast food meals.

And when you stop paying for it, it goes away, nbd.

I do get why somebody would rather not go that route, but I really don't think this is quite the sea change that most people are making it out to be, especially in the world of Avid where leased equipment is still common. Stop paying, and it goes away. Maybe this year's projects can be opened later, maybe not. But you keep paying because it's not much money (four years and three months of leasing to equal one purchase with no upgrades), and you assume you'll be in business in four years.

Your mileage, your number of kids, the frequency of your fast food, and the degree of your glaucoma may vary.


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David Roth Weiss
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 5:18:13 pm

Well stated Tim...

Oh, and lets not forget, along with a subscription Adobe gives us all the free audio tracks we could ever desire.

David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist & Workflow Consultant
David Weiss Productions
Los Angeles


David is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.


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Mark Suszko
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 6:26:22 pm

You guys DID see this COW thread, didn't you?

https://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/99/863196


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 10:37:47 pm

[Tim Wilson] "I rolled down a dirt road, pulled up to a house with a bowed roof, no front door, a car up on blocks, in a neighborhood tightly packed with similar houses and, classist bastard that I was, I thought, no way, this can't be right. "

That's a nice lazy sentence Tim.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Tony West
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 12:54:36 am

[Jim Wiseman] "May I make the observation that the older we get, the more threatening the rental model is? If you are working on the projects you consider your legacy, can you really afford to be paying monthly for your software to keep your projects alive?"

Have to admit Jim, this is an angle I never thought of. It's real, and thoughtful.


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Michael Aranyshev
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 30, 2015 at 3:59:35 am

[Bob Zelin] "With the exception of hi end shows and features, how does the majority of the people on these forums continue to earn a living ?
"


What I really wonder is how those hypothetical kids with iPhone 8 earn theirs.


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Jim Wiseman
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 30, 2015 at 5:16:04 am

By writing apps and working for Google. ;)

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.1, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500, Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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Michael Aranyshev
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 1:10:13 am

My point was it is a war of attrition and it isn't immediately clear who can sustain it better, old farts or iPhone kids.


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Jim Wiseman
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 3:07:37 am

Sorry, that was tongue in cheek. The old farts are likely to have their craft down significantly better than the young kids. But it really depends on who you are selling it to. The young kid market may like the more camera on a stick look. Doubt f the corporate or broadcast market would. There are those with no taste who can't see the difference, and those who are so picky you want to run screaming out of the room. It really depends on who you are selling your product to. One thing is for sure, there is going to be a lot more video out there, and to compete you will have to distinguish yourself in whatever market you choose as your target or happen to be located in.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.1, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500, Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 30, 2015 at 9:33:27 pm

[Michael Aranyshev] "[Bob Zelin] "With the exception of hi end shows and features, how does the majority of the people on these forums continue to earn a living ? "

I think this is maaaybe a little overcooked as a point? camera and software tool availability seems to have set off a nuclear explosion of quality content. No one wants hamfisted malarky made by a skateboarder, they want and expect the likes of what they see on amazon, netflix, and the million other platforms producing content.

Corporate material, even for internal - looks utterly ridiculous these days? I know a small shop in London, basically a husband and wife team that win awards like bandits putting together stuff with stop motion, animation, Red shoots, you name it. Even some going away videos for senior corporate personnel are 10K jobs these days. because they have gotten to know they can get crazy stuff for that money with the tools dissemination. They're aware serious looking stuff is always in reach. That creates pride competition for the look and feel on their end. I think Vince Laforet set off a bomb really.

I don't think it's the coming of the apocalypse, I half think it's glory days?

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Gary Huff
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 3:23:37 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "I don't think it's the coming of the apocalypse, I half think it's glory days?"

If you're one of the handful of people who have the clients who have taste and are willing to pay for good work well done? Then yes.


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Tony West
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 30, 2015 at 9:05:50 pm
Last Edited By Tony West on Aug 30, 2015 at 9:43:53 pm

[Bob Zelin] "Apple iPhone 6s will have 4K."

It doesn't matter Bob. It's not a practical camera to do demanding production with.

Last job I did, 2 talent, 2 wireless mics, wireless video out to the client monitor from the stedi

They are not going to do a simple commercial shoot with that phone. Not going to happen. On the other hand I should have had a sound guy with me and a gaffer. So that's been cut. You get fewer people but you are expected to bring home more.

Think about it like this, the DSLRs came out and changed the game, but then people figured out that it was an impractical camera to shoot with in a lot of ways. They put out the C300 to cover what was missing. That's a long way from an iPhone in cost and in what it can do.

So the 5d is lacking on demanding shoots but the iPhone isn't? Nope

When I started doing the robo cam on sports in 99 everybody said "that's it, it's going to take all of our jobs!" Never happened. It's tiny 20X lens can't get tight enough across the playing field to compete with a 100x. There are more hard cameras on games now than there where in 99
It went the other way.

I still say 4k files are too big for most TV jobs. Just takes up too much space on the drives for what you are going to use it for.

2 hour sit-down interview at 4k ProRes is like 903 GB same shoot with 1080 XDCAM is 47 GB

New shiny objects abound.

Not time to panic just yet : )


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Mark Suszko
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 2:15:12 pm

(Cut and paste what I always say.)


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Mark Suszko
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 3:50:53 pm

While watching render bars, I thought about what the most appropriate metaphors might be.

We could talk about the shoe salesmen in the wilderness analogy.

We could go with the goldrush analogy: the guys making the big money were seldom the actual miners,but instead, the guys selling the miners their shovels and supplies. Today, the equivalent might be those people who teach the new, unwashed bottom-feeding hordes the intricacies of how to use their newfangled skateboard video software. The folks writing effects plug-ins and things that people buy to simplify, streamline, or automate a task.

The standard analogy I and many others have turned to again and again is the desktop publishing revolution, where after an initial bloodletting where designers and print press businesses took massive hits, the wave of badly done work resulted in a lot of those early adopters dropping out again, but the old pros took on the new tools and found ways to use the new tools to make their old work more efficient.

Now usually the analysis ends there. But I think we have to go deeper, in order to learn anything.

When DTP disrupted the old printing paradigm, it also opened up unforeseen new sectors. There was a so-called "'Zine" movement of self-published semi-pro niche magazines before computerized DTP came along, but nothing like afterwards: the "Zine" scene flared up and sent waves thru pop culture as well as professional communication industries, film, etc. all by democratizing the process and opening up access beyond a small number of "gatekeepers". The 'Zine movement informed the growth of the early web; they sort of grew up together and cross-pollinated. Some 'zines faded away as physical products but found new life as web sites, where the interactivity with the audience was nearly immediate an often addictive. People who had been in contact with that movement transferred their points of view and ways of working to other endeavors, spread out over the tech and business sectors.

How does all that connect to making your mortgage payment next Wednesday?

Flexibility. Being like liquid water; taking on the shape of whatever contains you, without losing the essence of what you are, what you like to do. I am fatalistic but also optimistic at the same time. I'm fatalistic about the continued commoditization of our *processes*, thanks to corporatism, globalization, and an internet that means cutters in Michigan now compete with those in Mumbai, or Romania, or wherever... around the clock, for the terrible wages the Mumbai guy or gal is happy to take. hard to blame the Mumbai guy who just wants to feed his family and lives and sleeps on a doorstoop when he's not in a cybercafe editing.

Rates will continue to race to the bottom, thanks to the greed of clients, and ever-cheaper baseline technology access. So we have literal hordes of competitors out there, beating us on rates every day. That's the gold-diggers. Where's our equivalent of the shovel-sellers? Is it in managing people and assets to do this work? Is it in literally selling them more and better tools and training?

Maybe the analogy is sports, and older pros, needing to stay connected to the Game, moving out of playing into coaching or the front office?

The part I'm optimistic about is that there is more and better Television being made now than arguably any other era in the history of the medium. Experimentalism is up, new shows are designed around smaller niche audiences, but also, their very structure is informed by an internet audience versus a broadcast one. LA has always attracted too many actors, but now, more people have the potential to become their own producers. I think we're talking about a perceptual shift here, and some of us are unwilling to make it because change is deeply terrifying and uncertain. I like certainty. I like security. Nothing wrong with it.


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Steve Connor
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 3:58:47 pm

[Mark Suszko] "Flexibility. Being like liquid water; taking on the shape of whatever contains you, without losing the essence of what you are, what you like to do. I am fatalistic but also optimistic at the same time. I'm fatalistic about the continued commoditization of our *processes*, thanks to corporatism, globalization, and an internet that means cutters in Michigan now compete with those in Mumbai, or Romania, or wherever... around the clock, for the terrible wages the Mumbai guy or gal is happy to take. hard to blame the Mumbai guy who just wants to feed his family and lives and sleeps on a doorstoop when he's not in a cybercafe editing.

Rates will continue to race to the bottom, thanks to the greed of clients, and ever-cheaper baseline technology access. So we have literal hordes of competitors out there, beating us on rates every day. That's the gold-diggers. Where's our equivalent of the shovel-sellers? Is it in managing people and assets to do this work? Is it in literally selling them more and better tools and training?

Maybe the analogy is sports, and older pros, needing to stay connected to the Game, moving out of playing into coaching or the front office?

The part I'm optimistic about is that there is more and better Television being made now than arguably any other era in the history of the medium. Experimentalism is up, new shows are designed around smaller niche audiences, but also, their very structure is informed by an internet audience versus a broadcast one. LA has always attracted too many actors, but now, more people have the potential to become their own producers. I think we're talking about a perceptual shift here, and some of us are unwilling to make it because change is deeply terrifying and uncertain. I like certainty. I like security. Nothing wrong with it.
"


An excellent post Mark, sums things up nicely


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Tim Wilson
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 4:38:22 pm

[Mark Suszko] "I thought about what the most appropriate metaphors might be.
"


Cars. Always and only cars. I have no idea what you were thinking.

LOL


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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 4:40:23 pm

[Tim Wilson] "Cars. Always and only cars."

No, I think Bill has moved on to tractors. Still motorized, though. ;-)

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Mark Suszko
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 7:29:07 pm

Cars. Always and only cars. I have no idea what you were thinking.

Well, in the Pixar movie, "Cars", Lightning McQueen is dropped into a throwback town that was by-passed by a new highway and left to fade away.
Lightning's appearance re-invigorates the sleepy town, causing a re-evaluation and a burst of renovation in the town occupants. Meanwhile their inherent values rub off on him and change his nature.


In the under-rated film, "Gung-Ho", a small town loses the main employer and the town smartass goes to Japan to recruit a replacement automaker to resume car production and save the town. The townsfolk are moribund and complacent, unwilling to adapt to the new efficiencies and methods of the incoming Japanese, and clashing in their cultures as well. That movie sorta happened in real life a few miles up the road from me, in Normal, Illinois, where Mitsubishi and Chrysler teamed up to build a new state of the art plant called Diamond Star. Much was made at the time of the hybrid relationship of Japanese management partnering with American Union labor. Chrysler bowed out after just a year or so, but Mitsubishi went on making cars there for over a decade, with much success, but also with a few labor management problems, including some incidents of gender-based harassment... but even with some tense times, the plant went on and the local tax base blossomed... until an announcement a month or so back that they were pulling the plug due to sales and other market factors. Now Normal is losing thousands of jobs and the government is looking for a new tenant for the still-modern facility. The movie gave Gedde Watanabe a lot of range to work comedy and drama in one film, and it even starred Toshiro Mifune in a cameo as the company CEO. If you're looking for themes, there are several, but the pertinent one is to stop fixating on the particular style or method, and think about the ultimate goal.








We now return you to a serious thread, derailed by Tim, not me.


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Bill Davis
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Aug 31, 2015 at 10:13:44 pm

Dammit, there goes all the late night work I've done on my unified "Food Processor Production Analogy"

Stillborn by virtue of pre-ridicule. The Internet is such a harsh mistress.

(Sobbing sounds accompany me down the hall ...)

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


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Walter Soyka
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 2:19:15 am

A collection of loosely-related thoughts:

1) Our industry has historically priced itself based on access to expensive gear. Now that gear and software is cheap, or FREE (personally, I'm holding out for Grant Petty to start writing checks for using BMD software), we find ourselves in a pricing transition.

2) Very few video professionals can clearly articulate their value proposition. "I make videos" was a good reason for someone to give you money 10 years ago, but now a customer needs a more compelling reason to part with their cash. This idea of better understanding our value to our clients was one of the themes I was trying to get across in the project-fee discussion a couple months back. Expanding on that...

3) Video isn't enough. Video for its own sake used to be special. Now, video is ubiquitous. I think this is what Oliver was getting at: corporate video is worthless when it's disconnected from a broader strategy.

4) Our industry is sexy. People want to do it so badly, they tweak the supply-demand curve, accepting unreasonably low wages to start in hopes of making it. But don't worry, this will change, because...

5) Our industry is being generalized. Using the Microsoft Word example, not everyone is a professional writer, but every "knowledge worker" professional writes. Basic video literacy is on its way to being similarly universal.

6) We collectively squeezed out the middle end. High-end facilities have always been in another league, but the middle end were a juicy target for the M100/UVW-1800 set, then the Mac/VX1000 set, now the laptop/FCPX set. We clobbered them with our high capabilities and lower rates, and in so doing, we've created a chasm between low end work and high end work with fewer advancement opportunities. Specifically to Bob, the middle end that I assume bought his services barely exists today.

7) Both the high end and the low end consistently underestimate what the other is capable of. This broadens the chasm and confuses the hell out of clients.

8) The middle is poised for a comeback. There are a lot of low-end customers that used to be high-end or middle customers who are horribly underserved today. Agile agencies will fill this void.

Walter Soyka
Designer & Mad Scientist at Keen Live [link]
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
@keenlive [twitter]   |   RenderBreak [blog]   |   Profile [LinkedIn]


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Oliver Peters
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 1, 2015 at 11:34:57 pm

This is probably futile, but this is an attempt to swing back on topic and riff off of Bob's original iPhone comment.

One of the positive things I've seen with cameras and many younger shooters is the ability to approach a project with a bag of tricks. It used to be that a videographer or cinematographer had one camera - film, Betacam, Ikegami HL79, F900, VariCam, whatever. They made the investment and that's what got used.

Now, I see guys coming in with multiple tools - GH4, 5D, C300, GoPro, etc. Plus small Steadi rigs, MOVIs, drones, etc. All on one job. The result is a lot more creativity when the talent is there behind the lens. That's a huge and very fun change in the business. And overall, an optimistic one.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Michael Gissing
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 1:56:37 am

Hopefully this doesn't start a huge political, philosophical debate but the past and current business models in our industry were entirely a human construct that has been borne out of 12,000 years of agriculture and 250 years of an industrial revolution, but based on our insatiable desire to communicate and entertain through self expression.Throughout human history, art, story telling whatever has existed.

Unsustainable practices can grown and totally thrive until they can't. Infinite growth in a finite world is facing a crunch time and it is probably going to at least start to take effect in our working lifetimes. More people, more consumption. Can't last and so if the capital based system we mork with starts to seem senseless, then maybe we are just riding the tails of unsustainability into its inevitable demise.

But fear not, we will invent another system that may or may not be sustainable and it might be wildly successful.


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Paul Neumann
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 2:56:48 am

I have an idea about one of the new business models anyway, pretty sure I just fell into it. A friend of mine brought me on board of his small technology company that's recently been acquired by a large company way way up there on the Fortune 500. Basically, they need a re-branding of their marketing, training, on-line presence, etc.

They are moving into new digs soon and that will include studio/training/webcast space.

And day one I was handed my CC Teams log in, my Adobe Stock log in AND a subscription to the Adobe Technical Communications Suite.

Adobe might be on to something.


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Jim Wiseman
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 2, 2015 at 9:10:00 am
Last Edited By Jim Wiseman on Sep 2, 2015 at 4:51:58 pm

[Oliver Peters] "I think you are missing Jim's fundamental point. Premiere Pro could be the greatest tool on the planet and make coffee for you in the morning, too - it doesn't matter. Jim wants the ability to own the tools he needs for creation in perpetuity. That's simply not possible with Adobe any longer, for better or worse. Right now, that option on the Mac only exists with Apple, Avid, Media 100, Resolve, or Lightworks (I think).
"


Speaking of Media 100, there is an interesting article in Pro Video Coalition about the new push behind Media 100. It is my go to track based editor as rental is not an option for me and I was actually the dealer for it and Avid in Hawaii during that period, so I am very quick with it. Easy to use, professional quality, Yosemite and Red support, all with a copy of Boris Red that is Media 100 and Premiere compatible, for $99 with a perpetual license and AJA and Blackmagic support. Also a perpetual education license for the same package for $49. Has excellent connections both directions to AE. Perfect for my documentaries. Here is the URL:

http://www.provideocoalition.com/does-media-100-still-make-sense-for-your-p...

And I'm not selling Media 100, just using it.. Also using FCPX, love the organization, and the magnetic timeline is great for docs as well. Both no rental, perpetually licensed.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.1, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500, Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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Bill Davis
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 5:27:14 pm

Nice distinction right in the last two posts.

Paul is excited to be picked up by a powerful corporate giant who specifies the tools and practices he will use to create their content.

Jim is excited to be enabled to pick and choose the tools that resonate with him and is delighted to be able to use what he wants, when he wants to create his own content.

Two clear and distinct aproches evolving from the different business models.

Pick one and get to work!

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


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Paul Neumann
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 3, 2015 at 8:55:15 pm

Yeah, and it's Windows at work and Mac at home. I still do TV and web content outside of the corporate gig and that includes using FCPX and Motion, Resolve and (rarely) Avid.

The best paying Business Model for me was the one with the guaranteed need for content. That was the staff corporate route. The pure TV/Broadcast avenue has gotten really spotty. I spent the last six months at NBC-Dallas but even that was more or less every other week.


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Scott Thomas
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 16, 2015 at 7:05:14 am
Last Edited By Scott Thomas on Sep 16, 2015 at 7:05:57 am

Bob, we could go back to this time... couldn't we? At least I know how to use that Philips LDK-5.







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Claude Lyneis
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Sep 26, 2015 at 7:00:55 am

As I first read here, the iphone 6s comes with 4k. I could resist and picked up mine today. 3840 by 2160.30p Codec AAC.H264.mebx. About 375 MB per minute. Not sure what I will use it for, but at least I can test out my Mac with FCPX on 4k, before going out for new 4k equipment.


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Wayne Dupuis
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Oct 1, 2015 at 4:38:19 pm

I was at an acquaintance for dinner, and he announced he had seen some of the short film work I streamed out, and he said something to the effect "The imagery was beautiful; you must have a really good camera."
I commented on dinner suggesting the food was terrific, you must have a really good stove.

Wayne


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Steve Connor
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Oct 1, 2015 at 5:41:56 pm

[Wayne Dupuis] "I was at an acquaintance for dinner, and he announced he had seen some of the short film work I streamed out, and he said something to the effect "The imagery was beautiful; you must have a really good camera."
I commented on dinner suggesting the food was terrific, you must have a really good stove."


That deserves an LOL!


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: please explain the new business model to me
on Oct 1, 2015 at 6:01:37 pm

[Steve Connor] "[Wayne Dupuis] "I was at an acquaintance for dinner, and he announced he had seen some of the short film work I streamed out, and he said something to the effect "The imagery was beautiful; you must have a really good camera."
I commented on dinner suggesting the food was terrific, you must have a really good stove."

That deserves an LOL!"


We need new metaphors around here, certainly!


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