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OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?

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Daniel McClintock
OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 3:59:13 am

Wow! Avid shares plunged nearly 30% Tuesday. Third quarter in a row they didn't meet Wall Street expectations. They are also transitioning to subscription base. But is it too little, too late? Thoughts?

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/08/11/why-avid-technology-inc-st...

------------------------

"Sometimes Life Needs a Cmd-Z!"


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Noah Kadner
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 5:08:35 am

I'd guess the studios would ultimately jump in and save them a la Kodak if it really cut down to the bone. Too much invested in the infrastructure.

Noah

FCPWORKS - FCPX Workflow
Call Box Training


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Robin S. Kurz
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 11:19:21 am

Personally, I already dared predict their demise within about two years tops a couple of years back and was already saying that what they were doing then (e.g. slashing prices, but not nearly enough) was already way too little, way too late. Of course at that point I didn't realize that they still had a formidable cash-pile up their sleeve, which is arguably the only thing that has in fact kept them alive this long. Once that is used up (if it isn't already), that's pretty much it IMHO. But yeah, I agree I could see them being passed around for a while once they get there, a lá Media 100? I teach at various schools on the side, and barely any of the students or graduates even know the name, nor is it even taught (very seriously) at any of them. First major and deadly sign of disappearing into insignificance if you ask me.

We'll see.

- RK

____________________________________________________
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Scott Witthaus
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 12:03:26 pm

Avid has been losing market share for years now, but they are firmly entrenched still in film and broadcast (although a family member of mine who works NFL games for CBS as well as other high profile sporting events told me that the CBS trucks now have Avid, Premiere and, you guessed it, FCPX).

What's mind-boggling to me is the delusion that management team has about Avid's position in the marketplace. Horrible Q2 results but raise the full year outlook? You have to realise that Louie Hernandez is more a turnaround and sell guy versus a leader in the industry. IMHO, I don't think he has any interest in Avid regaining it's lofty position. It's more "let's crank out the good news as much as we can" and hope no one notices. Kind of sad to watch, actually. I used to do a ton of Media Composer work and now I can't find one to rent in our region.

Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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Robin S. Kurz
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 12:34:14 pm

[Scott Witthaus] "but they are firmly entrenched still in film and broadcast"

Maybe in some cities, but certainly not all. And at the same time, you're talking barely a single digit percentage of the entire industry. At the same time, those will be editing facilities that set up 5 if not 10 or more years ago. I think it's pretty safe to say, that any new(er) facilities have not been and are not going Avid. Certainly not from my experience. Simply because it makes very little to no technical let alone economical sense to them from what I gather. And I get it.

And yes, here, too, the otherwise notoriously slow and "SO last year" public (government, a lá BBC) broadcasters, who, for some bizarre reason are still often referenced as the be-all and end-all of "broadcast trends" here as well, are now (amazingly!) moving more and more to anything BUT Avid, which until just a few years ago was considered a completely ludicrous notion. Go figger.

Oh and btw, the few Avid seats left at any of the schools I work at haven't been updated past v5 or v6 at best, because of the apparently notorious incompatibilities each new, even incremental version brings with it and, with that, constant maintenance and fiddling that accompany any such attempt. That for me is mind-boggling.

- RK

____________________________________________________
Deutsch? Hier gibt es ein umfassendes FCP X Training für dich!


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Oliver Peters
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 12:48:11 pm

"Oh and btw, the few Avid seats left at any of the schools I work at haven't been updated past v5 or v6 at best, because of the apparently notorious incompatibilities each new, even incremental version brings with it and, with that, constant maintenance and fiddling that accompany any such attempt. That for me is mind-boggling."

You are misinformed. Care to describe these incompatibilities? Backwards compatibilities would be limited by feature changes, but forward compatibilities are pretty solid. I open old projects in current software frequently and it looks pretty compatible to me. Even render files relink! Imagine that!

As far as schools, what you say is generally correct EXCEPT schools that teach film, particularly here in the US. My experience is that even though the school might not teach Avid, the students who really do have a desire to work post in film and TV seem to still want to seek out MC training so they are marketable.

As far as general facilities, there are a few cases I know of in the US that went Premiere Pro to create TV shows and have since shift to Avid because of hassles they encountered in a multiuser environment.

Oliver

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Scott Witthaus
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 12:57:39 pm

[Oliver Peters] " there are a few cases I know of in the US that went Premiere Pro to create TV shows and have since shift to Avid because of hassles they encountered in a multiuser environment."

But, there are many many more facilities that shifted to Premier and now X that have never looked back at Avid.

Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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Robin S. Kurz
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 1:17:21 pm

[Scott Witthaus] "But, there are many many more facilities that shifted to Premier and now X that have never looked back at Avid."

I'd definitely second that.

- RK

____________________________________________________
Deutsch? Hier gibt es ein umfassendes FCP X Training für dich!


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Neil Goodman
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 2:48:36 pm

Avid is still very much alive and kicking in my neck of the woods.

More work than ever. Rates are great. Lots of people churning out amazing content on the regular.

Im amazed at how many people are rooting for their demise.


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Scott Witthaus
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 8:37:03 pm

[Neil Goodman] "Im amazed at how many people are rooting for their demise."

Not rooting for a demise but just seeing what's happening outside of film and broadcast. I used to make a ton of money sitting behind a Media Composer. Now there are none to sit behind. I have not had a paying MC job in over 3 years. Maybe four. But I have been busy all the same.

As far as the Orad acquisition, there were rumblings both in and outside of Avid that was merely cover for poor Q4 2014 results. Not sure about the logic there, but those were the rumbles.

Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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Robin S. Kurz
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 1:17:01 pm

[Oliver Peters] "You are misinformed."

No, I'm merely restating what the guys that maintain the systems (and have been for many years) tell me. Which is in fact not very different from what I've heard from almost every Avid user I know over the last few years for that matter. The whole "hasn't been 'certified' for x, y or z yet" or just the general "If it ain't broke..." attitude. The majority of said issues have little to do with Avid being incompatible with itself, as you describe. If only.

I also know that the Avids have been the only edit suites that have ever been down for any extended period of time over the years. Mind you, a roughly 4:12 ratio between Avid & the rest. On the Mac the Avids are always the ones you seem to need to tiptoe around. To the point where they are on separate machines all by themselves by now, because when you have to update OS X to be able to run every other NLE or maybe some utility, suddenly the Media Composer gets all flakey. That on the other hand I witnessed first hand a few times.

Then there's still the matter of having to pay more for just a simple incremental update than for an entire seat or over a years worth of the other NLEs, even if that now has changed. But any remaining trust has been canceled out by frustration over so many years, to the point that that step isn't even one being considered anymore. And sure... YMMV.


[Oliver Peters] "EXCEPT schools that teach film"

That may well be. In the U.S. But then we're talking about an even smaller fragment of the industry. And we are talking about Avids survival here, so I don't see how that qualifies as an argument for Avid or its use. Rather I think it solidifies the problem that much more. Especially since no one actually shoots FILM anymore anyway, in which case I see only very very few and very specific (i.e. not needed by the vast majority) tasks that Avid can actually cater to better than anyone else. Meaning to the point that jumping on Avid makes for an actual overall advantage.

- RK

____________________________________________________
Deutsch? Hier gibt es ein umfassendes FCP X Training für dich!


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Neil Goodman
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 2:51:02 pm

[Robin S. Kurz] "I also know that the Avids have been the only edit suites that have ever been down for any extended period of time over the years."

This is a ridiculous statement.


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Robin S. Kurz
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 13, 2015 at 11:42:57 am

[Neil Goodman] "This is a ridiculous statement."

LOL... oh really? Because you work at the same schools and studios? Because I otherwise have no clue how you could make such a ridiculous statement. But I guess it's simply not true because you don't want it to be true. The only possible conclusion one could come to, with such a completely baseless insinuation.

- RK

____________________________________________________
Deutsch? Hier gibt es ein umfassendes FCP X Training für dich!


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Oliver Peters
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 13, 2015 at 3:06:35 am

[Robin S. Kurz] "No, I'm merely restating what the guys that maintain the systems (and have been for many years) tell me. Which is in fact not very different from what I've heard from almost every Avid user I know over the last few years for that matter. "

I find that hard to believe, since I've never heard that same experience from any other users anywhere in the world. I'm excluding support of UnityISIS systems, since that does require some IT expertise. But then so did a full Xsan system. Any so do advanced systems today like OpenDrives. As far as Avid systems, when you bought a full-blown, turnkey workstation, they were less temperamental than systems like Flame.

[Robin S. Kurz] "The whole "hasn't been 'certified' for x, y or z yet""

That's actually true of every company. But really all it means is that a specific configuration has been tested by QA engineering. Admittedly Avid is more conservative than some others, but a qualified configuration is a known working combination of parts.

[Robin S. Kurz] "I also know that the Avids have been the only edit suites that have ever been down for any extended period of time over the years."

Really? Down for what reasons? Hardware? Software? Again, not my experience nor anyone else I know. Maybe for comparison, we should talk about how difficult it was for many users of FCP "legacy"/Kona combos to correctly navigate the menu options in order to get the correct video format out to a monitor or tape deck, just a few short years ago. I know FCP editors today who still can't figure it out.

[Robin S. Kurz] "To the point where they are on separate machines all by themselves by now, because when you have to update OS X to be able to run every other NLE or maybe some utility, suddenly the Media Composer gets all flakey."

You're making a mountain out of a mole hill. Yes, you do have to wait on OS updates until Avid has a chance to test and if needed issue a patch. They've been burned repeatedly in the past by OS updates and, therefore, won't do final testing until the release version of the OS is out. Apple in particular has a bad habit of making changes between prerelease versions and release versions that break things, hence the reason for caution. Usually there's a lag of a few months. That's prudent regardless of the NLE you are using. But it's not that different on the other end. For example, to run FCP X 10.2.x, a user MUST be on Yosemite, even though that might not be a good move for other reasons.

[Robin S. Kurz] "Especially since no one actually shoots FILM anymore anyway"

Schools teach filmmaking don't shoot on film either for the most part. However, there are features written into the MC code that benefit all productions as an outgrowth of their film post heritage. Things like multiple timecodes per clip.

[Robin S. Kurz] "That may well be. In the U.S. But then we're talking about an even smaller fragment of the industry. And we are talking about Avids survival here, so I don't see how that qualifies as an argument for Avid or its use"

I'm not questioning any of the marketshare or financial issues. They are real and Avid does have very little appeal to a broader, more general video users. Plus Avid doesn't have the benefit of deep pockets created by the consumer goods market, like selling iPhones and goofy watches to the masses. Oops - sorry about that watch thing. Not really doing as well as Apple would like, I guess.

In any case, you have to remember that stock price has no direct relationship to the success or failure of a company. Profitability sure does and Avid has been lacking there. OTOH, most of the internet tools we use day in and day out have yet to make a profit. So in the end, it's all funny money anyway. If any of us were actually qualified to understand the stock market, we wouldn't be participating in places like the COW at all.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Daniel Frome
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 12:44:23 pm

Agreed.

My knowledge is completely anecdotal, but it seems like Avid has a history of getting bad CEOs. They don't seem to know exactly what Avid is. They try to make it fit into the same lot as other tech companies, whose share prices are constantly inflated by the idea of future profits. The idea of using computers to aid in media production is now old hat. Avid has been doing this for 20 years already. It's time to take Avid at face value: a company that makes predictable, slow-evolving tools in an established market. Shares will rise slowly as those tools are constantly refined.

Avid has more flops than successes when it comes to acquiring other software/companies. And yet.. here they go again buying Orad Hi-Tec for 60M despite the fact that it will probably do nothing for their bottom line.

Let's make some guesses/predictions: current CEO leaves in fourth quarter of 2016 after Avid (or some portion of it) is sold. The purchase of Orad Hi-Tec is nothing more than a method of buying into that "we're a tech company with future potential!" idea, designed to lure some 3rd-party buyer who wants their portfolio to be vaguely part of tech-sector.


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Eric Santiago
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 12:55:38 pm

God I hope they dont take Pro Tools down with them.
And no I dont care for Black Magic buying that either :P
Avid in my parts is still non-existent to the masses.
Installed in a 2 of the 3 broadcast stations here as well as a few studios.
Everyone has a copy of CC and FCPX here.
I tried to bring it into my College (part-time) but Im stuck with it at work.
Even if they go under my company will still use it for a few more years yet.
Were even pitching in and getting the DNxIO.
Pesonally Im a FCPX all the way and loving it :)


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Michael Phillips
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 3:33:58 pm

I believe Avid's challenge is revenue growth. For one, keeping existing customer base which is studio, broadcast, etc. and getting more money out of them as well as growing into other markets with solutions. It is the latter they are facing more competition. I can do a basic search on Film Industry Network for any given city (even LA) and will see in order of jobs available favoring Adobe and Apple. Now we all want to work on features, studio work and such, but that's not where all the jobs are unless you are in those cities. If you look at the overall media industry - the system use is not Avid. I did a search for editing jobs in Boston and there were 185 jobs for Adobe, 27 for Final Cut Pro and 21 for Avid. So once those 21 jobs are filled, the thousands of new job seekers hitting the marketplace can either wait for the next Avid job or go for one of the other jobs.

Avid's strategy of releasing free (feature reduced) versions of Pro Tools and Media Composer is recognizing the fact that the next/younger generation are unaware or have no experience in using them (more MC than PT, I would think). Also, the whole revenue strategy of the Avid Marketplace is based on having a large number of seats and developers. As of now, Media Composer has the fewest seats and developers. Maybe that will change.

Also, I do not believe Pro Tools and Media Composer will ever go away, it a long-shot it may just not be Avid.


Michael


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Mark Raudonis
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 12, 2015 at 11:32:18 pm

Here in Los Angeles, in addition to the previously mentioned Film and TV show market, there is one other bright spot for AVID: the REALITY TV market.

The post process for just about all reality shows is a HUGE group effort. A typical reality show will have anywhere from 20 to 50 people all connected to shared storage (ISIS) using common projects. AVID does this workflow better than any other NLE out there... period. (Yeah, I know that's an aggressive statement, but it's true!)

While I don't question the observations and comments by my fellow cows about the coming demise of AVID, none of you seem to acknowledge the reason for AVID's dominance in this market. Here's a clue: They do "sharing" better than anyone else. For me, that's the primary reason I couldn't even consider FCP-X on launch. So until you demonstrate a shared workflow that rivals the ease, convenience and common sense of an AVID/ISIS combination, your reports of their demise are premature.



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Shane Ross
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 13, 2015 at 1:04:26 am

I work in the exact arena that Mark does...most of the time. Currently cutting a reality show with nine editors, two assistants, 5 story producers...all on an ISIS. Even when I do docs for this company, there will be that many editors on a doc series, and we access all the media and projects. And it is simply the best way to do it...Avid does this better than any other.

FCP 7 was CLOSE...and Mark is one of the pioneers, if not THE pioneer in using that software in reality TV. But with FCP classic, you really had to have editors that paid attention to things, and were on the ball as to what was where, and what they were doing. Unlike Avid where you just open and cut and the only thing you need to do is set your render drive. It just works. But FCP 7 worked too...just with some effort.

And yes, the broadcast/film market is comparitively small in the scope of video production...I hear it's like 2%. But Avid dominates there...and always has. This has been it's market, and will remain it's market. Sure, it lost footing to FCP...but with it gone, Avid is gaining ground. And with more and more reality...and more networks than before...it's gaining a little more ground. Some companies are side stepping to Adobe and FCX...and that's fine...if it works for them, it works. Just saying that Avid still has a firm hold in TV/Film land.

The issue is that when it was the biggest boy on the block, used in 90% of films and TV...each system cost $65,000 - $124,000. That's huge compared to only selling it now as software for $1000...more for the options. And their boxes for under $10,000. That's where the hit is happening. From ~$80,000 per station, to $1000...or $10,000. Sure, MORE STATIONS as the TV market exploded...but not enough to make up the difference. So, Avid has had to deal with that.

As for going away...no, I don't see that happening at all. Avid is too big of a fit for what we do. Sure, they used FCX on that one show linked (I want to see more of that, their delivery schedule was INSANE), but that doesn't work for everyone. And if you want to use FCX for what Mark and I do...you need not only FCX...but a good half dozen other helper apps, and then, again...editors who pay attention and make sure not to do things wrong.

Anyway...hate on Avid all you want. A lot of you seem giddy at the prospect of it going away...and I'm not sure why. If you don't like the software...if you think it's clunky...DON'T USE IT. Use what works for you. I don't use FCX...but I don't point and laugh at those that do.

Shane
Little Frog Post
Read my blog, Little Frog in High Def


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Andrew Kimery
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 13, 2015 at 2:48:29 am

On the sharing end Mark, I'm curious if you've given Adobe Anywhere a hard look (and didn't have to sign an NDA to do it ;)). The thing that I really love about Avid in a shared environment though (and no other NLE can really replicate this) is how the projects are bins and folders that are accessible via the Finder. It adds such a great layer of flexibility in a multiuser environment (especially for assistant editors).

With regards to Avid's demise.... when they were delisted their stock price got down to less than $5 I think so they've definitely looked worse from that perspective. No company is safe from disappearing though. If Avid disappears tomorrow people will still use it as long as they can before switching to something else (FCP Legend is the perfect example of that). I remember a few years ago when the tsunami in Japan put video tape in short supply and pretty quickly people who swore up and down about the need for tape started figuring how to go tapeless.


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Michael Gissing
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 13, 2015 at 3:09:35 am

[Andrew Kimery] "I remember a few years ago when the tsunami in Japan put video tape in short supply and pretty quickly people who swore up and down about the need for tape started figuring how to go tapeless.

Having just dubbed 14 HDCam tapes for my current post job for Irish, Welsh, Australian and International distributor I can tell you that like AVID, tape still has a life and demand. Even the National Film & Sound Archive want an HDCam tape of the final for archiving. I want tape to die because it is a nuisance compared to files.

Legend and AVID still dominate my world. And from feedback from my clients that isn't changing soon. More editors who feed through to me are more excited by Resolve 12 than X but still 90% of my clients are using Legend or AVID.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 13, 2015 at 4:12:59 am

[Michael Gissing] "Having just dubbed 14 HDCam tapes for my current post job for Irish, Welsh, Australian and International distributor I can tell you that like AVID, tape still has a life and demand. Even the National Film & Sound Archive want an HDCam tape of the final for archiving. I want tape to die because it is a nuisance compared to files.

Legend and AVID still dominate my world. And from feedback from my clients that isn't changing soon. More editors who feed through to me are more excited by Resolve 12 than X but still 90% of my clients are using Legend or AVID.
"


I'm in a similar neck of the woods as Mark and Shane which means Avid's #1, FCP Legend is a falling #2, PPro is a rising #3 and X is a distant #4. So I get where people are coming from, my point is just that if Avid (or all the videotape makers) closed up shop tomorrow people would figure how to get done what they need to get done w/o Avid and w/o videotape. I don't think Avid, or any company, is too big, too widely used, etc., to disappear. Sony Walkman, IBM PCs, Nokia, Palm... all market leaders at one point and now, well, not so much.

The customers' need/desire for a product to survive and the ability of the business owner to make the product survive aren't really linked.


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Jim Wiseman
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 13, 2015 at 4:46:08 am
Last Edited By Jim Wiseman on Aug 13, 2015 at 4:50:31 am

That is exactly the point where I got out of the Avid sales business. When Avid workstations dropped from 50k to even 100k to a lot fewer sales, period. At least in a rather small market like Hawaii, but which supports a lot of production because of its uniqueness. FCP Legacy was the cause, and I decided it was time to get out of sales (exclusive Avid in Hawaii) and back into production. If Avid can figure out a way to make money on the high end of the market (really just 2%?) they will survive. If not, get prepared for a takeover and paying a lot more for Avid systems in the future. Really don't know how they pull that one off other than a big company willing to come in and take losses for a while. I certainly see the need for large shared projects editing with relatively big budgets, so I hope it works out. If Avid doesn't do it, someone will. If their management is as poor as it seems, it may say Avid on the box, a division of...

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.2.1, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.6, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Blackmagic Teranex, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500, Helios 2 w 2-960GB SSDs: 2012 Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz, 24Gb RAM, GTX-680, 960GB SSD: Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD, Multiple OWC Thunderbay 4 TB2 and eSATA QX2 RAID 5 HD systems


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Andy Field
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 13, 2015 at 4:58:38 am

I work for a national news network out of DC and virtually all in house edit suites are AVID....using it's servers here, in NY and LA. That said, the engineering folks realize that editing is now portable and everywhere and they're looking at other solutions including Premiere Pro and FCP X......some producers and reporters already using both in the field where interfacing with the server is less of an issue, as they're sending completed, sometimes rough cuts over IP to air or finish

Andy Field
FieldVision Productions
N. Bethesda, Maryland 20852


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Tim Wilson
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 13, 2015 at 7:31:56 am

[Jim Wiseman] " If Avid can figure out a way to make money on the high end of the market (really just 2%?) they will survive."

I don't think anyone can say for sure, but it can't be tons bigger than that.

Remember when Apple's stock was in single digits? It stayed in single digits for almost all of 2003. It started picking up with iPod in 2004, then REALLY took off with iTunes for Windows, meaning that virtually the whole world could buy an iPod. Check the chart history some time. It really was nearly to the day.

Part of the reason their stock price was in the single digits is because so was their market share. People had been talking about Apple going out of business for the last ten years, too.

Me and 1000 of my closest buddies were in a keynote address and saw Steve Jobs say, paraphrasing, "Yes, our market share is 3%. But BMW's market share is also 3%, and nobody's talking about BMW going out of business."

He went on to say that that's how Apple saw themselves. Not the top of the market, but definitely a luxury brand that had found its niche, and it wasn't going away. You can make a lot of money in a niche.

He was of course correct. Plenty of other folks on this thread have made the point that Avid's market share in its key niche is going UP. Not going down. Going UP. Their niche is feeling well-served by Avid, and not well-enough served by others.

(Although seconding Andrew's observation, it looks to me like Premiere is the only one besides Avid gaining any ground...but I think it's vastly more at Apple's expense as people look for more modern alternatives and find Premiere looking a lot more like Legend 8 than X does.)

Also seconding Oliver's observation that while Avid is growing its market share in its key niche, the question remains whether they can make more than they spend, and ENOUGH more than they spend that their PROFIT can expand in a way that matches their growth in market share.

Apple survived after a non-stop decade of people certain they'd go out of business...and has managed to do okay in the decade since they turned the corner. I doubt that Avid has the equivalent of an iPod waiting in the wings, but then again, neither does BMW, and they seem to be in it for the long haul.


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Scott Witthaus
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 13, 2015 at 11:53:38 am

[Tim Wilson] "Plenty of other folks on this thread have made the point that Avid's market share in its key niche is going UP. Not going down. Going UP."

How is this quantified?

Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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Michael Phillips
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 13, 2015 at 12:21:07 pm

Apple became a luxury item to the wider consumer market as part of its extraordinary growth in a separate, but somewhat related market - music players and phones. Avid has tried twice to enter consumer markets, maybe three if you count the short-lived iPad editing solution before it sold off to Corel. It became clear that the Avid brand at the high end (Hollywood) had no impact when marketing to the consumer market. The whole "home to Hollywood" did not pay off.

But the "video" market has grown since those days to the current "video is everywhere" it whatever forms it takes from mobile to streaming. The issue is that Avid's revenue have not grown along with it and other solutions are filling that gap. Avid continues to serve its existing customer base well, all the ones mentioned here, broadcast, news, studio film/television and Reality - and as noted, any situation that requires multiple editors, assistants, and collaborators to share the program creation process.

Perhaps the 12,000 subscriptions mentioned in the earnings call is telling for those "other" markets. That is the total number of subscribers in the past 18 months. What is not known is whether that is the total current ACTIVE subscribers or anyone who may have subscribed for at least a month. It would be interesting to see how that breaks down. If I recall correctly, 7 month to month rentals was the same as a yearly commit. How many month to month, versus yearly?

I feel that last year's December 31 deadline to get on the support plan or pay for your license all over again should you want to upgrade was a "gentle" force to get more money out of the existing user base. There were thousands of systems humming away on v5, 5.5, 6, 6.5 and 7 - especially in those large collaborative environments as the cost of the upgrade is more than just the seats - but the entire environment.

As I mentioned, the Avid challenge is to get more money from the customer base - this is the whole Avid Marketplace concept to become an "Apple Store" selling goods and services for a cut of the revenue. This is highly dependent on having lots of seats to target and getting lots of developers to get on board making purchases form the Marketplace more appealing than any other alternative. I think Pro Tools has a lot better shot as it has always been considered a platform for third party development and one can easily argue that its plug-in architecture is better, easier, with more performance than other formats so developers are more than glad to get on board. Media Composer on the other hand is a snooze fest when it comes to plethora of choices and price points, and AVX is not a popular plug-in architecture and is only used in Media Composer, arguably the smallest of the seat count market.

The other challenge is growing the number of seats, and that means competing with Resolve, Adobe and FCPx to feed that Marketplace. And that is a huge challenge. I believe the CEO mentioned (again) in this earnings call that they will start aggressively marketing into this "tier 3" market. Perhaps that will make its debut with Media Composer|Free.


Michael


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Tony West
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 15, 2015 at 2:07:51 pm

[Michael Phillips] "The other challenge is growing the number of seats, and that means competing with Resolve, Adobe and FCPx to feed that Marketplace. And that is a huge challenge."

I agree with this. In my market AVID is in the same facilities that it has been in for years, but the three newest facilities went with Pr

They have not been able to expand their base here.

Anybody that has worked in this biz for more than 20 years knows the trend has been to go smaller and smaller. That means fewer and fewer people. As in, one person do EVERYTHING so we don't have to pay any workers.

The question is, will this trend continue (I think we all know the answer) and if it does what will editing look like.

AVID works great in a shared environment but who will you share with when there are just a hand full of people left at the station.

The last baseball game I worked, out of the 3 laptops running in the truck, 2 were X and one Legend.

AVID has got to find a way into this current trend of cut on the run, individual/smaller market place.


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Neil Goodman
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 15, 2015 at 2:30:51 pm

[Tony West] "Anybody that has worked in this biz for more than 20 years knows the trend has been to go smaller and smaller. That means fewer and fewer people. As in, one person do EVERYTHING so we don't have to pay any workers.
"


I think this all depends on the type of work you do.

Yes budgets have gotten smaller, editorial teams have shrunk - but Ive never been asked to do anything other than edit picture, and do basic sound design and audio mix.

dedicated GFX and Audio and finishing teams are still very much a thing out here, and I don't see that changing out here anytime soon for broadcast work.

If I do ever get approached to do my own final GFX and Audio, then the rate goes up.. way up!


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Tony West
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 15, 2015 at 3:18:48 pm

What's the trend there at your place Neil? Are they expanding editing jobs there? Maintaining the same or cutting?


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Neil Goodman
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 16, 2015 at 4:57:23 am

[Tony West] "What's the trend there at your place Neil? Are they expanding editing JOBS there? Maintaining the same or cutting?
"


Where i work things are the same. We started as a team of 4 staffers and 2 freelancers plus 1 finisher/AE 3 years ago. We lost a staffer due to better opportunity, and now that seat is filled with another freelancer. We also bring in freelance AE's when we need them.

Theres been cuts but not to editorial/post.


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Mark Smith
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Sep 21, 2015 at 12:18:12 am

Apple survived after a non-stop decade of people certain they'd go out of business...and has managed to do okay in the decade since they turned the corner. I doubt that Avid has the equivalent of an iPod waiting in the wings, but then again, neither does BMW, and they seem to be in it for the long haul.

"Apple IS doing Ok?'"

I would suggest that Avid is a rounding error in Apple's catering budget, which has nothing to do with how good their software is for certain types of work.


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Christian Schumacher
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Aug 14, 2015 at 8:13:45 pm

[Robin S. Kurz] "Personally, I already dared predict their demise within about two years tops a couple of years back"

Like predictions, Robbie? Here’s one; Media Composer will outlive FCPX by many, many years. FCPX is going to be replaced by FCPVR -or something to that effect- and the old fart Media Composer will be here! And do you know what I also dare to say? MC will probably be here when the next FCPVR is EOL’d as well. Maybe not as Avid’s, I grant you that. But it will be funny to watch, I mean all FCPX users being stuck with the latest ‘good’ release, in the exact same sense that FCP7 users were back in the day. Only then FCPX users will understand how it feels to be tied to a workflow and talent pool like FCP Studio users were - and many still are today.


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Scott Parker
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Sep 20, 2015 at 7:12:27 pm

Howdy!

I am currently working in FCP 10.2 and there's lots I like about it. However I'm moving to AVID MC 8.4 because FCPX has been an exercise in frustration way too many times.


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Scott Witthaus
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Sep 29, 2015 at 5:19:23 pm

[Scott Parker] "I am currently working in FCP 10.2 and there's lots I like about it. However I'm moving to AVID MC 8.4 because FCPX has been an exercise in frustration way too many times."

Hey! Congratulations! You be sure to let us know how that all goes!

Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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Scott Parker
Re: OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
on Sep 30, 2015 at 1:08:08 am
Last Edited By Scott Parker on Feb 3, 2016 at 12:23:08 am

[Scott Witthaus] "Hey! Congratulations! You be sure to let us know how that all goes!"

Yeah I'll make that a priority for you.

Hey Scott I told you I'd get on this. Working pretty good on AVID right now on a complicated project with tons of dual camera footage.

It's going well (although there are things I miss about FCPX).

Thanks for your concern : )


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