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This time next year...

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James Ewart
This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 5:22:04 pm
Last Edited By James Ewart on Sep 23, 2014 at 5:38:50 pm

... where will we be?

Apple are ironing out the bugs in FCPX now.

Adobe have perfectly timed their subscription model to coincide with general consensus (even amongst the Avid Community over here in UK) that FCPX is not just iMovie on steroids.

Avid future appears uncertain but I do not think mainstream broadcast community are likely to abandon ship anytime soon (and if they do I would think they might go Quantel?)

So ... will Andreas be proved wrong and FCPX reestablish market share?

... or will Adobe rule the roost?

Where will the broadcasters be headed?

How will the "grid positions" have changed in September 2015?

Thoughts?

http://www.jamesewart.co.uk


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David Mathis
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 5:40:45 pm

I have no plans to abandon Final Cut Pro X or Motion anytime soon. I am keeping an eye on what the Blackmagic Design team does with Fusion. If the price is right and there is very good integration between Resolve and Fusion, I might consider gradually moving over to Fusion but still keep FCP X and Motion handy.

I am now considering using Resolve as an editor and for color grading. After all, the tools are excellent to mention trimming and keyframing is much better. Add to that, some of the functionally from Final Cut Pro 7 and versions prior have been added into the mix. The ability to have a swap edit or apply a default transition to multiple clips at the same time with a simple keyboard shortcut is just super duper awesome.

For finishing, I will continue to rely on FCP X and Motion. Despite no "Send To Motion" option, there is still plenty to be excited about. Creating custom transitions, generators, titles and effects is not only a time and money saver but it is super duper fun!

I might even use Fusion to process still images and enhance photos for post-production and editing. Really like the concept of node based compositing though I would use Motion for motion graphics and stuff like that.

I am even considering doing stop motion type of work for a show open or title sequence. Even going the use minimalist type of motion graphics. Guess that makes me the "less is more" type of person.

I might rent Photoshop from time to time if necessary but not go long term. I might even add Acorn just to avoid subscription only scenario.

Sorry for the somewhat long post but those are my thoughts and hope it adds to the discussion. Love to hear to any feedback or opinions.

Cheers!


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James Ewart
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 6:09:04 pm

Should I consider Resolve as a pure long form editing tool?

This time last year I was looking at Smoke.


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Marcus Moore
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 6:09:49 pm

The reports I've had from people I trust is that they're on a great track but not there yet.


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Scott Witthaus
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 6:18:02 pm

[Marcus Moore] "The reports I've had from people I trust is that they're on a great track but not there yet."

I have R11 on a brand new, totally tricked out Mac Pro and the playback performance is awful. I like the product and will keep learning it, but it's a long long way from being an every day, heavy-lifting editor. FCPX is far ahead of it.

Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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Steve Connor
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 6:10:07 pm

[James Ewart] "Should I consider Resolve as a pure long form editing tool?
"


I would say no, it is in no way mature enough


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David Mathis
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 7:40:01 pm

I had an interest in Smoke but it is a bit expensive and has a steep learning curve. I hope that Fusion does not get "blended" into Resolve but stays the course as a separate application.

Choppy playback is one reason that Resolve is not considered a full fledged alternative at this point. Hopefully that issue will be addressed in the next version. Otherwise, it looks to be very solid.


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Ronny Courtens
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 6:12:11 pm

Aindreas has been proved wrong with every negative speculation he has made about FCP X so far, and this trend will continue in 2015 (-:

- Ronny


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Bill Davis
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 9:46:20 pm

Ronny...

You made me spill my coffee.

Stop that.

; )

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


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Marcus Moore
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 6:00:40 pm

I think FCP X's position in the market will depending on what effort and functionality Apple put into it. We've seen it's utility grow as things like broadcast monitoring, RED workflow, multi cam, and most recently file management have been integrated or improved.

I do sense within the community that people are looking forward to updates and improvements to the weak areas of the software- most notably audio. This is still the biggest sticking point for many. Both in how it's organized in the timeline and in the editing and mixing tools that are available. People will know I've had thoughts on this.

As it's functionality grows, I think we'll see it continue to penetrate more markets. While I think there will still be people who ultimately leave Legacy Final Cut to go to Adobe or AVID, I think we've passed the nadir of FCP X angst.

Apple will get out what they put into it. I think we'd all like to see more concerted PR and engagement. AVID and Adobe really shine in both these cases.

But with the way things have been changing at Apple over the last year or so, I'll hope that some of the traditional PR boundaries will erode a bit, as Apple realizes it doesn't need to be as secretive with proApps as with the more consumer-oriented parts of it's business.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 6:50:17 pm

I doubt there will be significant change over the next 12 months. FCP 7 users will continue to slowly migrate to X, PPro or Avid. Resolve and Lightworks will continue to try and move from dark horse to viable option status.

I just don't see any breakout moves happening.

For me personally I'm going to keep on keepin' on which means using whatever NLE fits. So far in 2014 that's been FCP 7, PPro and Avid.


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Ronny Courtens
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 6:57:03 pm

I don't expect Apple PR to change soon with regard to FCP X. They don't do big announcements and fancy-fairs, but their biggest strength is in the tremendous behind-the-scenes support they are giving. I have had very pleasant experiences with this in the past year. They are really listening to their user-base, and as a professional that's the best PR you can have.

- Ronny


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Steve Connor
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 7:43:44 pm

I would hope we see another major feature upgrade for FCPX soon, Adobe are speeding ahead with their upgrades!


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Marcus Moore
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 7:59:36 pm
Last Edited By Marcus Moore on Sep 23, 2014 at 8:01:27 pm

I don't think we should expect anything until November/December at the earliest, and possibly even late January if we use past update intervals are anything to go by.


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Ronny Courtens
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 8:15:44 pm

I think that's a fair assumption. Another minor update in the coming months and then a feature update around the end of the year, as usual. Nothing to get impatient about, it's doing pretty well as it is now.

- Ronny


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Bill Davis
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 23, 2014 at 10:05:57 pm

Maybe it's just me but I'd be delighted if X stays a bit still for the moment.

I keep stumbling into new interesting corners of the software as I edit increasingly different types of projects.

In fact, I just delivered a big voiceover job where I did more than 100 audio clips for a trade show.

After the base recordings, I needed to go though all the clips and prep them for export as individual sound bites, which meant precision top and tailing every single clip.

I was happily using the two or three keystrokes to set and trim each clip the old way (keyboard right bracket to select the in point, play to the out position, then keyboard option right bracket to trim - when I realized that I could just play to the edit point, tap O (X would then auto set a RANGE from the clip start to the playhead) then delete to execute the edit in one keystroke. I'd forgotten that the magnetic timeline made that possible.

Three or four keystrokes became one and suddenly i was trimming 3 times faster.

Again and again, I find myself editing with my brain stuck thinking in the language of prior editing systems, and realize that magnetism and X have changed so many parts of the game.

I know this stuff. But even so, I sometimes forget to apply what I now understand X does into practical terms to make things easier.

And so it goes.

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


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Steve Connor
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 24, 2014 at 10:59:50 am

[Bill Davis] "Maybe it's just me but I'd be delighted if X stays a bit still for the moment. "

Probably just you Bill


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James Patterson
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 24, 2014 at 12:00:00 pm

I'm not sure what's going to happen in the next 12 months, Apple is probably quite happy with the take up of X and people that use it really like it. I would say also that most of the articles I read about X are positive with cries of "not professional" in the minority.

What I have seen in London over the the last 12 months is quite a large switch to Adobe CC, those that use Avid are staying still but places that were on Legacy are going to Adobe in there droves.

Best

Paddy


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James Ewart
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 24, 2014 at 4:49:32 pm
Last Edited By James Ewart on Sep 24, 2014 at 4:53:49 pm

I hated FCPX to start with and moved to Adobe originally which I adjusted to very quickly (taking keyboard layout from FCP with me).

If I'm totally honest I kind of liked the FCP7 interface (similar to Adobe after all) being rather unapproachable to the uninitiated. It protected my space.

I already have clients who used to use iMovie for fun who will put together bits and pieces in FCPX themselves and this annoys me as they would never have attempted even these simple little jobs themselves in Legacy or Premiere. But they can do it even though they do not understand the subtleties or full capabilities of FCPX. And because they can, they do.

I just wonder whether there's something in this "liking it looking difficult" thing.


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walter anasagasti
Re: This time next year...
on Oct 11, 2014 at 1:14:12 pm

Looking over FCPX customer ratings in Apple's App Store, I see a large proportion of negative (one star) reviews, with many coming across as otherwise diehard FCPX fans who have reached the end of their rope with crippling stability and performance issues.

However as I read threads like this one in forums like creativecow, I see an overwhelmingly positive attitude towards the product from what appear to be video editing professionals.

Any explanations for this disparity in opinion?


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Tim Wilson
Re: This time next year...
on Oct 11, 2014 at 3:08:14 pm

[walter anasagasti] "However as I read threads like this one in forums like creativecow, I see an overwhelmingly positive attitude towards the product from what appear to be video editing professionals.

Any explanations for this disparity in opinion?"


One basic one: the Creative COW Community itself.

People commenting in the App Store aren't looking for help. They're looking to vent. And while there's obviously a component of that in the COW, by and large, even the venting is in the context of trying to actually get work done. That is, the venting has been along the lines of "I can't do my job," with responses suggesting ways that might help. Early detractors have become converts.

That said, to underscore the objective validity of the venting here in the early days, Apple addressed a number of the issues identified then. There's still a list of dealbreakers for some folks, but it's a lot shorter list for a lot fewer folks than was the case a couple of years ago.

Which is another reason why things are so much more positive here. A comment in the app store is a snapshot in time. It necessarily only reflects a single moment that will never be updated. There's no telling how many of those people eventually came to the COW to get the help they need, and are now delighted. :-)

It's why I've been a believer in the COW as a self-correcting mechanism. As long as new experiences get added to the mix, whether within a single person's life or the forum as a whole, voices gravitate toward practicality. Tones can get harsh when people can't get work done, but once people ARE getting work done, positivity rises fast.

And since the professionals in the COW are all about get working done, the community, as a whole, over time, trends toward enthusiasm, even if most of the threads ever started here are from people who need help. They make those posts in faith that they WILL get help. Enough people get the help they need that we're still around after 19 years, and still growing.

Thanks for noticing. :-)


Tim Wilson
Creative COW


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Craig Alan
Re: This time next year...
on Oct 11, 2014 at 4:59:32 pm

FCP X has a 3.5 average rating out of 5. Resolve has a 2.5. People tend to post when they can't get the thing to work and are ready to throw their computer out the window. Thus 1s. I don't see these users posting their system specs. FC requires a decent set up. Do these folks use a media drive? How old is their Mac? Have they read anything at all on how to set up the organization of FC? By default it can fill up their system drive to the point where things will crash. No question FC X takes a bit of an adjustment if you are used to anything else. The real question: once you work out the system set up with a computer that can handle the app, and get past the initial learning curve, does the program meet your needs?

Mac Pro, macbook pro, Imacs (i7); Canon 5D Mark III/70D, Panasonic AG-HPX170/AG-HPX250P, Canon HV40, Sony Z7U/VX2000/PD170; FCP 6 certified; FCP X write professionally for a variety of media; teach video production in L.A.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: This time next year...
on Oct 13, 2014 at 12:27:35 am

[walter anasagasti] "Any explanations for this disparity in opinion?"

People that feel negatively about something are most likely to say so publicly. People that absolutely love something are a distant second to saying so publicly. The vast majority of users fall someplace in between and are least likely to say so publicly.


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Mitch Ives
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 24, 2014 at 2:27:25 pm

[Steve Connor] "[Bill Davis] "Maybe it's just me but I'd be delighted if X stays a bit still for the moment. "

Probably just you Bill"


Yeah, I was just wondering why anybody wouldn't want forward progress?

And where the hell is the "Send to Motion" function...

Mitch Ives
Insight Productions Corp.

"Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things." - Winston Churchill


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Marcus Moore
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 24, 2014 at 2:06:20 pm

Unless we get it very soon, I don't think there's time for another maintenance update this year AND a feature update.

I've got a followup blog post I'll mash out today akin to my 10.1.3 post from a while back. I'm not going to say I predicted the release date, cause I didn't. But they were very close to the average of previous maintenance updates. Which was 50 days.

Here's that one-

http://disproportionatepictures.blogspot.ca/2014/08/final-cut-pro-x-whats-n...

Are there any glaring bugs that still need to be addressed like Copy/Paste before they move on to the next feature update?


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Daniel Frome
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 24, 2014 at 1:47:27 pm

Okay... you're inviting uninhibited speculation.. I'll do my part:

I actually don't think very much will change over the course of 1 year.

Avid will probably gain a few more customers due to it's formats/resolutions being welcomed into the 21st century, but this will not change anyone's day-to-day.

Adobe will continue to make inroads where FCP7 left off.

FCPX will stay where it is, for the most part.

Resolve, despite getting better editing tools, will not utilized in that way quite yet.

The over all video market will grow, and therefore all companies will have the pleasure of announcing growth, although the over all pie chart of NLEs will remain relatively unchanged.


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Lance Bachelder
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 24, 2014 at 6:37:10 pm

Not sure if Avid will make any significant gains, great that they now have modern resolutions but it's basically still the 25 year old MC interface. Great for old guys (like me) but...

CC will probably keep growing because folks still need Photoshop and AE.

I think FCPX will grow faster that folks think. If you're a Mac user there's just so many helpful features that are OXS based that speed up workflow - like organizing my massive sound fx library into iTunes and having instant access to tens of thousands of sounds without ever importing or leaving the app.

Plus FCPX makes me feel young again - like the Viagra of NLE's...

It was at a Vegas premiere that I resolved to become an avid FCPX user.

Lance Bachelder
Writer, Editor, Director
Downtown Long Beach, California
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1680680/?ref_=fn_al_nm_1


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 24, 2014 at 7:29:33 pm

[Lance Bachelder] "feel young again - like the Viagra of NLE's..."

first compelling argument I've heard in two years.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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David Mathis
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 24, 2014 at 11:36:11 pm

[Lance Bachelder] "CC will probably keep growing because folks still need Photoshop and AE."

There are alternatives to Photoshop, with Acorn being one of them. From what I read, Acorn has a very solid non-destructive workflow. You can also arrange the order of any filters or effects which is a very nice feature. Once you save the project you can always go back and make further changes when necessary.

I do agree on After Effects as Motion does not have some advanced features though there are ways of accomplishing the same task. Perhaps not in the next year it does look Fusion will become a very viable alternative. I love the fact that it is node based but not sure about using it for motion graphics. Still think that layers is a more "appropriate" approach. By the time the next NAB comes about, or shortly on either side, we will learn more about Blackmagic Design has in store for Fusion, really would be glad should it be available for the Mac platform as well. Time will tell. My thoughts on the subject.

camera operator | editor | production assistant

Remember kids, tracks are you friends when you charge by the hour. Track Tetris, game on!


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 25, 2014 at 12:21:12 am

cosa after effects is the one motion design ring. it cannot be unmade by human hands.
we would need software hobbits travelling a thousand miles to break it on fire mountain.

more so than PS, AE is around as unbreakable as unbreakable is.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Scott Witthaus
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 25, 2014 at 12:42:57 am

[Lance Bachelder] "Plus FCPX makes me feel young again"

And it is something that is natural for young folk too...no pill needed. Once again, I watched my students edit last night and FCPX is just so natural to them. Really amazing to watch. Way more than FCP7 ever was. Apple got something very right here. Now, if they just keep on supporting it...

If so, FCPX will grow faster than Pp and Avid, IMHO. I think they (MC and CC) have plateaued and now get into the real fight for new customers. One could look at raw numbers and say "gee, look at how many CC and Avid subscribers have joined up.." but that's just the hard core switching over. And just wait until that subscription price rises in 18 months...

;-)

Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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David Mathis
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 25, 2014 at 3:45:23 am

[Scott Witthaus] "And it is something that is natural for young folk too...no pill needed. Once again, I watched my students edit last night and FCPX is just so natural to them. Really amazing to watch. Way more than FCP7 ever was. Apple got something very right here. Now, if they just keep on supporting it..."

Very true. It does feel natural. At first it was confusing and intimidating after being used to a tracked base approach for years but now it is much faster and, most important, fun!

I also like how Motion takes the approach to what would be the equivalent of a pre-comp in After Effects or other layered based motion graphics software. No need to switch between tabs and using a simple keyboard shortcut makes things much more approachable and fast.

I too hope that Apple continues to support this software.


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Mitch Ives
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 25, 2014 at 3:51:01 pm

[David Mathis] "I also like how Motion takes the approach to what would be the equivalent of a pre-comp in After Effects or other layered based motion graphics software. No need to switch between tabs and using a simple keyboard shortcut makes things much more approachable and fast."

Not to mention the speed. I just finished a series of projects that start in Motion and finish in FCP X. With Motion on a fully loaded New Mac Pro, the speed is amazing. I don't need low res or any other settings off while designing in it. Playback is instant. Final renders are under a minute, with motion blur and the whole kitchen sink thrown at it. These used to take 45 minutes in some cases on an old Mac Pro.

Apple has a jewel with Motion... I just hope they realize it...

Mitch Ives
Insight Productions Corp.

"Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things." - Winston Churchill


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David Mathis
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 25, 2014 at 7:30:34 pm

I keep hoping that Apple will add video scopes in as they are necessary tool when color correcting. I really don't like guessing where the levels are.


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Steve Connor
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 25, 2014 at 9:22:45 pm

Add scopes to Motion?


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David Mathis
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 25, 2014 at 9:40:18 pm
Last Edited By David Mathis on Sep 25, 2014 at 9:54:57 pm

[Steve Connor] "Add scopes to Motion?"

Would be a nice feature. This way there is an objective measurement of levels and saturation.


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Craig Alan
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 25, 2014 at 8:07:41 pm

Yes. I get students editing rough cuts in 2 minutes. Then fix audio levels in another 2. Add titles ... Transitions ... Even transforms ... Speed changes ... Music etc.. The basic stuff is just really easy to learn. I'm talking kids who have never edited before.

I don't see this as a threat to pros. Just a generation will grow up on it and some will dig deeper and do long form or edits with greater complexity.

The one thing I do get asked -- is there a program like this on a PC.

Mac Pro, macbook pro, Imacs (i7); Canon 5D Mark III/70D, Panasonic AG-HPX170/AG-HPX250P, Canon HV40, Sony Z7U/VX2000/PD170; FCP 6 certified; FCP X write professionally for a variety of media; teach video production in L.A.


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tony west
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 25, 2014 at 2:12:23 pm

X really has a lot going for it right now.

They have made nice improvements to it.

People who use it LOVE it, so they become sales people for it not just folks that are using it.

The biggest thing for me is, I'm seeing more people in my market who are respected by their peers, who had moved to Pr and are now turning to X and that is having a huge effect. They still use Pr but are using X more and more and are talking it up.


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Mark Suszko
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 25, 2014 at 3:41:29 pm

I would hope the broken "show each source clip's time code window burn in timeline" option feature in X will be fixed by then.

Strategically, Adobe really needs to unlock some more of the cooler things they've been hoarding in their experimental/development lab and start putting it out to the CC renters, to show that this rental method pushes out improvements and updates faster than the "old' way of owning a copy with annual updates/bug fixes.

Resolve and etc. seem to be where FCPX was shortly after it launched. Lots of visible potential, but might take a year or more to get all the desired functionality desired.


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Ronny Courtens
Re: This time next year...
on Sep 25, 2014 at 3:50:08 pm
Last Edited By Ronny Courtens on Sep 25, 2014 at 3:51:23 pm

People who use it LOVE it, so they become sales people for it not just folks that are using it.


I am seeing the same thing. Fcp.co is a thriving FCP X community with over 7000 active members. This number has been increasing exponentially over the past 6 months. I have seen quite a few new posts from people asking: "This is how I do (or did) it in Premiere, how can I do this in FCP X?"

FCP X is also evolving fast in very different areas of editing.

Last week I heard an interesting podcast by Chris Fenwick where Michael Glass explains why TED has decided to go all FCP X for editing the huge amount of programming they do (10 multicam conferences per day all over the world, 365 days per year). They used FCP7, they have tested all the different offering and decided to go with X. I found it interesting to hear they had no trouble at all finding experienced FCP X editors in NYC. Here's a link to the podcast: http://digitalcinemacafe.com/2014/09/18/fcg082-ted-cuts-in-fcpx-feat-michae...

On the other side of the editing spectrum a big name in the live broadcasting world, Vizrt, have announced FCP X integration with their Viz One MAM and with Viz Engine, one of today’s most powerful rendering engines and real-time compositors of graphics and video. This is the story: http://www.fcp.co/final-cut-pro/news/1506-viz-one-integration-with-final-cu...

So yes, I expect FCP X to continue to grow significantly in 2015 as well. How this will affect the "pie charts" and the "grids" I don't know and, frankly, I don't care. Every software has its place and its user base. Whenever I have to decide which software will be the best for our line of work, a pie-chart is the last thing I will look at (-:

- Ronny


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