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Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX

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Marcus Moore
Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 4:48:39 pm

Larry Jordan is the first with FCPX news from NAB-

http://www.larryjordan.biz/app_bin/wordpress/archives/2482

"Apple announced today that they had more than one million separate installations of Final Cut Pro X. Last year, they said that the installed base of FCP X users exceeded that of FCP 7. Today, they put a number on it."

My understanding is that this means separate Apple IDs, and not that it's just running on over 1 million machines. So if a company is running FCPX on 8 machines, that only counts as 1 in this calculation assuming they were purchased from the same Mac AppStore account.


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 5:13:14 pm

[Marcus Moore] ""Apple announced today that they had more than one million separate installations of Final Cut Pro X."

Previously (2 months ago):
http://forums.creativecow.net/thread/335/65839#65887
[Franz Bieberkopf] "Yes, well the more you look at this, it's all just guesses."

Previouslier (2 years ago):
http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/36504
[Tim Wilson] "Apple isn't in business to sell 2 million of anything over 12 years. That's not a sustainable business in Apple-land. Frankly, I doubt that it's as little as 10 million, but I doubt we'll ever know for sure."
http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/36498
[Tim Wilson] "10 million FCPX downloads x $295 = nearly $3 billion dollars in the first year, around what they made in the first TWELVE years of Legacy. And I'm being conservative."

And also (also two years ago):
http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/39688
[Craig Seeman] "A while ago (a few months I believe) it was reported that FCPX passed 2.5 million downloads. I can't recall if it was from Apple or SCRI. I remember that number being quoted at the Blackmagic Roadshow in NYC a few months back."

And even (two-and-a-half years ago):
http://forums.creativecow.net/thread/335/19507#19507
[Craig Seeman] "That means FCPX must be under 600 thousand downloads."

Franz.


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Marcus Moore
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 5:22:37 pm

Yup. The only true data points we've had were the "more than FCP7" from NAB2012, and the "more than one million unique" this year.

Everything else is Kremlinology.

I would say that chances are that if there's more than one mil unique IDs being used, then the number of machines it's being used on is certainly higher- by what factor we can only guess. 1.5X? 2X?


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Tim Wilson
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 5:33:13 pm

Ha! Franz, you amaze me. I was TOTALLY going to step up and say I got this wrong! LOL Oh my gosh, I was so far off.

Do note that I added at the end of almost all of those posts that I'm an idiot who knows nothing.

Here's where I'm confused though. It's very, very easy to find references to Apple saying that they had a million licenses in 2008, and two million in 2011. So what does THAT mean vs. what THIS means?

The one part I still stand by is that this is a ridiculously low number. I guess they have to say SOMETHING, I'd be embarrassed to have this be the flag I was trying to fly under....although in my software development career, I had to make do with less now and again, and I did it with a smile. You go with what ya got.

But this is WEAK. Both Apple and me. LOL


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 5:41:19 pm
Last Edited By Franz Bieberkopf on Apr 6, 2014 at 5:42:23 pm

[Tim Wilson] "So what does THAT mean vs. what THIS means?"


So in summary, some real numbers start to create a picture:

- Adobe Premiere Pro, 2.5 million (Fall 2012)
- FCP 1-7, 2 million (NAB 2011)
- FCP X, 1 million (NAB 2014)

Does anyone have additional (non-guessing) numbers for Avid, Lightworks, etc.?



Franz.

P.S. Tim, it's worth it if I've amazed you.


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Marcus Moore
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 5:53:29 pm
Last Edited By Marcus Moore on Apr 6, 2014 at 6:10:49 pm

Franz- is that Adobe # Premier or total Creative Cloud subscribers? Source? I see 1.4 million from December. Who knows what percentage of those people are working in video vs web vs print or illustration. EDIT Number from March is 1.844 million total CC subscribers as of March 20th. Number of actually Premier numbers must hence be lower than that. I'd wager half.

Tim, I think Philip Hodgetts has pegged it right in the past that we have an over-inflated sense of the size of our industry. If Legacy Final Cut sold 2 million licences between 1999 and 2011 (12 years)- then I don't think you can characterize 1 million FCPX in the 3 years since 2011 as "ridiculously low".


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Steve Connor
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 5:59:29 pm

[Marcus Moore] "we have an over-inflated sense of the size of our industry. If Legacy Final Cut sold 2 million licences between 1999 and 2011 (12 years)- then I don't think you can characterize 1 million FCPX in the 3 years since 2011 as "ridiculously low".
"


Agree, considering the industry wide resistance against it I would say 1 million is a good number.

Steve Connor

Class Bully


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 6:09:29 pm

[Steve Connor] "Agree, considering the industry wide resistance against it I would say 1 million is a good number."

Steve,

Isn't the general consensus that they were less interested in "niche" workflows, and more interested in software with wide appeal?

Franz.


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Tim Wilson
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 7:22:36 pm

[Steve Connor] "Marcus Moore] "we have an over-inflated sense of the size of our industry.....
"

Agree, considering the industry wide resistance against it I would say 1 million is a good number."


I generally agree that MANY people have an over-inflated sense of the size of the industry, but I'm not one of them.

I'm not saying this to brag, or try to deflect from how far off my posts two years ago are LOL -- but when I was a product manager at Boris FX, we had bundling deals that were paid by the unit. One of those bundling deals was for a title tool that shipped with every copy of FCP -- I knew EXACTLY how many units there were.

When I was a senior manager on the product marketing team for Media Composer, I could tell you not only how many customers there were, but how many boxes of our software were sitting in inventory on dealer shelves. I knew how many students were registered in every college media program in the entire country.

The ONLY part I got wrong was how many installs of X there are...and wow, did I get that wrong. LOL My ASSUMPTION, based on my own experience running a Mac-based video production company before I became a corporate weasel is that damn near everybody with a Mac would download a $295 product just out of curiosity, whether or not they'd even been using The Legend of FCP.

Back in MY day, you couldn't buy a pack of gum for $295 LOL so that number sounds like no-brainer money to at least take a gander...but I haven't bought production gear in the 21st century, so maybe $295 seems like a lot these days.

For the record, I never said one million is ridiculously low. I said I'd be embarrassed...but that's the wrong word. The right word is disappointed. As a manager, I wouldn't be at all happy to see that number cross my desk this far into the game.

But let me tell you a little story about disappointment and going with the story you've got.

You can look this up yourself, but one year around 10 years ago, Avid had precisely ZERO new news of substance for NAB. ZERO. So I came up with the only plan I could think of -- if we can't tell people about our NEW features, because there aren't any, let's tell them about our IMPORTANT features...because we do in fact have a ton of "important" features.

And so that's what we did. That's what we built the NAB demos around, and what we took on road shows. Our greatest hits. We didn't even dust off old demos. We took our most important stories -- media management, editing tools, etc. -- and built new demos around them, to address the realities of how editors WORK.

As the guy who not only wrote them (with acres of help of course), but actually DID many of the demos - including all day, every day on the main stage at NAB - I was right in the middle of it. It not only turned out to be NOT embarrassing, it turned out to be a lot of fun.

Yeah, people were pissed to not see new features, but the overwhelming reaction was people thanking me for reminding them how much fun Media Composer is when they weren't yelling at Avid. LOL It was a blast. One of my favorite experiences in corporate life.

Here's the punchline. One of the strongest reaction was to an OLLLLLLD set of features based around voice recognition for clips in bins, called ScriptSync. I showed the shit out of that thing, and people LOVED it...and whaddya know, right after that, voice recognition is in other NLEs, both natively and with plug-ins.

Moral of the story: you can change the game with a GOOD story, even if it's not the story you'd been hoping to tell. But it has to be a GOOD story.

Is 1 million users a good story? I think not. I don't see it helping Apple much, and I don't see it shaking up competitors much. It doesn't seem to me like it would help generate new users, or make existing ones feel validated in their choice.

But hey, Apple has to love that you guys think 1 million really IS a good story. You're a tough crowd, and if this sounds like good news to you, then they'll take it as a sign that they're on the right track.

Also for the record, I've ALWAYS said that FCPX is on a good track, and that I approve of everything Apple has done with it, INCLUDING killing FCP 7 when and how they did. I'm just surprised that they have "so few" LOL licenses to show for it. That's all.

What I'm NOT surprised by is being wrong again. LOL THAT, I'm used to....


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 6:04:53 pm
Last Edited By Franz Bieberkopf on Apr 6, 2014 at 6:06:54 pm

[Marcus Moore] "is that Adobe # Premier or total Creative Cloud subscribers? Source? I see 1.4 million from December."

Marcus,

That figure was from fall 2012; it was widely reported. There is probably a better source but this is Bill Roberts from Adobe:
http://www.beet.tv/2012/09/adobepremiere.html

[Marcus Moore] "Who knows what percentage of those people are working in video vs web vs print or illustration."

Definitely. It's "seats", and "number of users" which I take to mean purchases of CS6 and CC (or maybe including earlier CS - but we know that total Adobe "users" is somewhere between 9-12 million).

Alternately, how many people purchases FCP X and never use it? or used it on one project and then never again? We don't know.

These numbers don't give the picture you'd want, but they help and they're not guesses.

Franz.


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Marcus Moore
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 6:19:28 pm
Last Edited By Marcus Moore on Apr 6, 2014 at 6:20:13 pm

[Franz Bieberkopf] "That figure was from fall 2012; it was widely reported. There is probably a better source but this is Bill Roberts from Adobe:
http://www.beet.tv/2012/09/adobepremiere.html"


So what I get from that is that he's saying 2.5 million total seats in use regardless of version.

So the appropriate affiliate to that on the FCP side would be active Legacy plus active X users.

the 1.8 million CC subscribers number is current, from their last earnings call.

http://www.popphoto.com/news/2014/03/adobe-financial-report-shows-18-millio...


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 6:27:38 pm

[Marcus Moore] "So what I get from that is that he's saying 2.5 million total seats in use regardless of version. ... the 1.8 million CC subscribers number is current"

Marcus,

Your math implies total sales of Premiere + CS 1-6 + CC subscriptions as of Sept 2012 totals 2.5 million though, which is implausibly low.

He's vague, I agree. I think he's likely counting CC downloads of Premiere (not everyone has to download it) + CS purchases.

Franz.


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Marcus Moore
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 6:32:34 pm

Except that he's saying active users, vs just how many they've sold over the last X number of years.

Active users means they're probably not counting anything below CS, and likely very little below CS3/CS4.


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James Culbertson
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 7:08:01 pm

[Franz Bieberkopf] "
- Adobe Premiere Pro, 2.5 million (Fall 2012)
- FCP 1-7, 2 million (NAB 2011)
- FCP X, 1 million (NAB 2014)"


But the bigger question that will never be answered is how many of these installs are being used with any regularity.

For instance, I have all 3 on my system currently, but I've only used FCPX with a smattering of FCP7 in the last year or two. Others probably have FCPX installed but are only be using Premiere.

Though I suspect that I will eventually be using both Premiere and FCPX more often than not. And I imagine that this will be true of most other editors as well.

The time of one primary NLE is no longer IMHO... time will tell.


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Dom London
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Aug 5, 2014 at 6:48:08 pm

Hi Guys

I can see a lot of numbers on this page. As we have to provide a decision on whether to add FCPX or FCP7 to our existing expert courses (in Avid MC6 and Premiere CS6) for 259,000 UK school students I would be very grateful of getting the sources of these numbers being mentioned.

the numbers I can see shown here are..

- Adobe Premiere Pro, 2.5 million (Fall 2012)
- FCP 1-7, 2 million (NAB 2011)
- FCP X, 1 million (NAB 2014)

Can anyone add the name of the source (ideally a person and at least a company - or a weblink?)

Thanks a million, if you can help?

Dom
dom AT uk film net DOT org


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: NLE numbers - Sources
on Aug 6, 2014 at 12:15:56 am

[Dom London] "I would be very grateful of getting the sources of these numbers being mentioned."


- Adobe Premiere Pro, 2.5 million (Fall 2012)
http://www.beet.tv/2012/09/adobepremiere.html
(video, and I believe the language he uses is "2.5 million Premiere Pro users")
(... further, current subscription numbers for Creative Cloud are above 1.8 million - search here or on the net, you should have no problem finding sources.)

- FCP 1-7, 2 million (NAB 2011)
(This number was widely reported at the launch of X, thus reflects versions 1-7, and should not be hard to find - one source below.)
"Apple said it currently had more than 2 million licensed Final Cut Pro users..."
http://www.cnet.com/news/apple-announces-final-cut-pro-x/

- FCP X, 1 million (NAB 2014)
"Apple announced today that they had more than one million separate installations of Final Cut Pro X." (No official announcement from Apple that I can find to verify, that's just the way Apple does it.)
http://www.larryjordan.biz/app_bin/wordpress/archives/2482

- Avid, 3 million (NAB 2014)
(This number is from Oliver Peters and he also doesn't have sources that can be verified but claims his "sources are straight from Apple and Avid", but you could write him on his site for further clarification.)
"The 3 million Avid users number was stated numerous times by Avid at the Connect event."
http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/67876
"Also to clarify, the Avid number of 3 million users is a total for all of Avid's products, whether Media Composer, Pro Tools, ISIS or an old copy of Avid Xpress. At least that's the answer given at Avid Connect."
http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/68835


Franz.


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Dom London
Re: NLE numbers - Sources
on Aug 6, 2014 at 12:21:14 am

Thats fantastic Franz, Many thanks Sir

Dom


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: NLE numbers - Sources
on Aug 6, 2014 at 1:17:43 am

Dom,

I'd certainly recommend other considerations outside these numbers if you are putting together decisions for curriculum.

Different pockets of filmmaking and video editing tend to favour certain kinds of workflows and thus certain kinds of software. It might be worth polling some local labs and industry references, for example. Also, while FCP 7 still seems to be in wide use (and I'm using it), it's life is pretty limited at this point. (On the other hand, I would have said the same thing 2 years ago, and here we are.)

I don't think there are easy answers.

Franz.


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 5:51:02 pm

[Tim Wilson] "The one part I still stand by is that this is a ridiculously low number."

Tim,


... the other implication that I'm thinking of is revenue.

FCP 1-7 sold for 1000.00 - 1500.00 (times 2 million) - over 2 Billion for Apple over 10 (?) years.

FCP X has generated 100 Million a year for 3 years for Apple.

Revenue isn't the driver that it is for other software developers, but it probably has real implications in terms of resources for the developers of FCP X.

Franz.


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Bret Williams
Re: Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX
on Apr 6, 2014 at 6:12:17 pm

And for every one of those installed seats, or $1000 sales, they probably got 1 or two upgrades of $299. So legacy , like X, was a continuous revenue stream.

BUT- how much plugin revenue have they garnered from the App Store? Maybe THAT's Apples plan for a continuing revenue stream . Their hidden subscription. But at least it's voluntary. However it seems most of the big plugins are still sold outside of the App Store.


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 6, 2014 at 8:53:11 pm

One of the main themes in this forum has been the underlying shift in focus of Apple with FCP X: that they forsook the "niche" professional market and sought a wider user-base.

http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/7132
(June 2011)
[Chris Kenny] "Apple did this because they think it's better. They think it will get them more users in five years than implementing the standard generic multi-track timeline and bins approach."

http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/21678
(Nov 2011)
[Phil Hoppes] "… once again, technology has significantly lowered the barrier of entry to making your own movie, allowing a significantly larger user base of movie makers, who simply won't follow the previous traditional methods used to create a movie. They want to work with more media, do it faster and do it cheaper."

http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/19418
(Nov 2011)
[tony west] "Randy Ubilos, who created Premiere Pro left and ended up making FCP X ... You have to expand the base to sell to. Apple has that part figured out."

http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/38697
July 2012)
[Bill Davis] "I think Mr. Ubillos's original approaches to these things focused on a tool that worked better, for more editors, than any one else's solutions. …That's precisely what I think he's done again with X. Designed a great tool for a new era of content creation and consumption. … In part because he wasn't overly blinded by what a minority needed - but rather started with what the majority of editors actually needed, then added additional "high end" features once the core was correct."

http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/42405
http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/42450
(Oct 2012)
[Craig Seeman] "Ahh the shrinking of the size of the TV Broadcast/Feature Film niche compared to the overall video post industry which actually is growing faster in other areas."
[Craig Seeman] "Overall video production is growing rapidly. TV/Film may even be growing. I believe they are a smaller piece of the pie though as other forms of video are growing more rapidly. I think this is impacting what a "facility" itself is (or at least how technically constituted)."

http://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/44553
(Nov 2012)
[Bill Davis] "Right now the focus of X is on evolving into the finest "personal" editing program it can be - NOT the finest "facility" editor it can be. I firmly believe more enterprise capabilities will follow (precisely as they did in Legacy) … Your view isn't wrong at all. It's just coming from a type of editing seat that is still important, but less and less the "average" one any longer."

One million in 3 years seems "disappointing" to me (to quote Tim) - it seems clear that that 1 million FCP licences are not making any significant contribution to Mac sales, though I suppose some fraction of those users are going to buy new Mac Pros. But I'm wondering, in light of the announcement of 1 million users at the 3 year mark, does this change the perception or interpretation of success on the issue of a broader user base?

Does 1 million users support the idea that Apple is achieving a wider, less specialized user base outside of facilities and traditional 'professional' enclaves?

Franz.


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 6, 2014 at 9:31:48 pm

pretty royal spread of claim chowder there franz.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Tim Wilson
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 6, 2014 at 9:47:26 pm

[Franz Bieberkopf] "Does 1 million users support the idea that Apple is achieving a wider, less specialized user base outside of facilities and traditional 'professional' enclaves?"

I think that FCP has always excelled at exactly this. It grew the market WAY beyond the group of people like me and most of you, who built our businesses around $30,000 NLEs. While a lot of folks in that category turned to AJA, Blackmagic, Pinnacle, Aurora and others -- a bunch of people said, "Wow, Firewire and a laptop, and I'm in the door."

So even if one has OVERALL market sizing correct, there's a huge gap between who's posting here and who's lurking here. The COW's heritage has always been professional editors, using heavier iron...but there's a gap between people posting and people lurking. People who edit as only one part of their job, or whose primary platform is a single laptop or iMac, tend not to post as much -- but there are acres of them. Corporate will always be a bigger market than classic post.

My belief -- SOMEWHAT informed, but absolutely not as well-quantified as historical user counts -- is that FCP's biggest platform is laptops. That's something that HAS been visible over the years in the COW, even moreso now with X and a retina-book.

So to answer in another way, I think X HAS grown the market, but the fact is that the TV/film post market has been growing too. I'm not sure that 1 million X customers tells us anything about that either way.

It also doesn't tell us anything about the number of people who opened it and said, "Welp, time to move to Premiere or Media Composer."

Nor does it tell us anything about the number of Media Composer or Premiere users said, "No way was I gonna kick the tires on a $1200 suite, but maybe I can run this at home for a couple of projects. Who knows? Maybe the modern tech underneath it will make it worth my while to do more." I'm pretty sure there was a meaningful number of those.

But "only" 1 million downloads in 3 years says to me that X hasn't yet caused the massive market shift away from pro users that many had feared. I think the Venn diagram overlap of "X users" and "Hardcore Pro users" out that 1 million is pretty dang big.


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Andy Field
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 6, 2014 at 9:54:00 pm

Lets see - they're counting me as one of those 1 million downloads....

Yet after paying with it for a month or so....and then again when they updated a dozen times to get it from Alpha to Beta to what should have been the first paying release......

I use it not at all

how many of the original downloads are like that?

I know a very large organization that bought and downloaded quite a few licenses....only to realize it didn't work well with their network, "old time" editors couldn't get their head around the new Apple way.....and they gave up and moved on to Premiere Pro

Guessing those are counted in the million downloads too?

Andy Field
FieldVision Productions
N. Bethesda, Maryland 20852


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Bret Williams
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 4:04:48 pm

But didn't just about every single person here own Premiere since CS3 and never used it? It came with the Production Bundle, which included AE, PS, IL, Premiere, and even Dreamweaver. I'm guessing Adobe counted all those installs of Premiere.


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Shawn Miller
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 7:16:12 pm

[Bret Williams] "But didn't just about every single person here own Premiere since CS3 and never used it? It came with the Production Bundle, which included AE, PS, IL, Premiere, and even Dreamweaver. I'm guessing Adobe counted all those installs of Premiere."

Well, considering that many if not most of the participants here are former or current FCP users, you might get a somewhat skewed response here. Probably lots more long term PPro users on other forums.

Shawn



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Tim Wilson
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 8:42:27 pm

[Shawn Miller] "Probably lots more long term PPro users on other forums."

Absolutely true.

But this is a continuation of the same point that others have raised about X. There's a difference between who HAS software, and who USES software.

As far as the companies are concerned, it doesn't matter. They make their money whether or not you ever launch the software.

It speaks to a larger issue, though, which you can see pretty clearly through the lens of Dr. Venn. There's an extent to which NONE of these numbers say ANYTHING about market share. I don't know about you, I own Premiere, Media Composer, and The Legend of Final Cut Pro, and I know that a lot of you do too. As much as it is to argue about, in PRACTICE, for ME, the market share for each of those products is 100%. LOL

So if there are a million whatevers -- downloads, installations, what have you -- of FCPX, it doesn't tell me anything at all about how FCPX is doing relative to anything else. I don't believe for a second that this is true, but statistically speaking, it's possible to imagine a world where the only people who downloaded X are Legend customers and tire kickers.

Again, I believe that X HAS grown Apple's reach...but really, if we're being honest, I have no reason at all to believe that based on that press release.

The same applies when you see numbers for Premiere and Avid users. Market share isn't all that big a deal when people own more than one of 'em. So yeah, there are a million X'ers, 2 million Legenders, 3 million Aviders, etc -- but because so many people buy more than one, and more than one copy of each, and 1 "unit" is described differently in each case (downloads, licenses, etc.), you actually can't draw any meaningful conclusions without a ton more data.

I'm kind of rambling here instead of posting NAB articles in the COW library LOL but I can tell you how that worked in practice for ME. I never cared about the number of Avid USERS as much as I cared about the number of Avid CUSTOMERS. That's why it also didn't matter to me whether or not somebody was using another NLE already. Who owns one of anything in this business? Just buy mine too, and let's talk about market share some other day.

And let's talk about market share some other WAY, because treating the universe of both users and customers of Adobe, Avid, Apple, et al as separate circles isn't even close to accurate. There's vastly more overlap than there's not.


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Charlie Austin
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 9:15:16 pm
Last Edited By Charlie Austin on Apr 7, 2014 at 9:43:16 pm

[Tim Wilson] "So yeah, there are a million X'ers, 2 million Legenders, 3 million Aviders, etc -- "

As you point out, those 1-3 million are - possibly - mostly the same people. I know I'm being counted in the X, Classic, Pr and MC numbers. Guess what app I'm using now?*










*It's a trick question, the answer is Safari. ;-)

-------------------------------------------------------------

~ My FCPX Babbling blog ~
~"It is a poor craftsman who blames his tools."~
~"The function you just attempted is not yet implemented"~


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TImothy Auld
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 9:25:58 pm

Speed Razor?

Tim


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 9:43:03 pm
Last Edited By Franz Bieberkopf on Apr 7, 2014 at 9:44:00 pm

[Tim Wilson] "So yeah, there are a million X'ers, 2 million Legenders, 3 million Aviders, etc"

[Charlie Austin] "As you point out, that those 1-3 million are - possibly - mostly the same people."

Tim, Charlie,

Yes. Well this is sort of my point, and I think this answers my original question in aggregate if not specifically.

... these are the same kinds of users that were (and are still) using FCP 1-7.


Franz.


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Shawn Miller
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 9:48:39 pm

All very good points, Tim. It really is hard to believe usage numbers from any of the NLE vendors, since we're all probably inclined to believe one stat or another based on personal experience or software/OS preference, while using multiple NLE/post tools ourselves. So I think you're right, creative professionals probably swim in murkier waters than anyone admits.

Looking forward to more NAB stories. :-)

Shawn



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Craig Seeman
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 6, 2014 at 10:38:42 pm

As far as the numbers game go....
With Adobe stating 1.8 million CC subscribers, there's an unknown portion who may actually be using Premiere Pro CC.
With Apple stating 1 million separate installs of FCPX there's an unknown portion of who may actually be using it.

Even if both were at 50% (and we have no idea) that would be 900,000 vs 500,000 regular users. I think it may well speak to the small size of the industry.

Of course I can make wild conjecture that since Adobe has a significant DTP and Photo base that maybe the percentage of Premiere users as part of CC subscriptions might be smaller and there may be many AE users who are otherwise using Avid but, one can equally argue that a large number FCPX install kicked the tired and didn't go further.

From Apple's business perspective though, if there are a significant number of FCPX users who are regular users that might be a worthwhile pool of people to continue to push their more powerful Macs to.



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Marcus Moore
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 3:27:50 am

I agree Graig. Even with the number we have it's very difficult to qualify actual users- butts in seats editing.

But with this one number Apple has discounted one variable. they aren't counting multiple users from a single AppleID.

I guess it depends what other rational they're using to describe "installs".

If someone installed 10.0.0, and never anything else- is that an install?

If someone is continually updating with every release- can it be reasonably considered that they're using it? Would someone update an application they're not using?

These are all interesting questions.

At OVER 1 million installs for 3 years, aren't we already ahead of the adoption curve for legacy FCP? If adoption doesn't slow, then FCPX will reach the total adoption of FCP 1-7 in half the time. Isn't that progress...?


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James Culbertson
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 3:39:31 am

[Marcus Moore] "But with this one number Apple has discounted one variable. they aren't counting multiple users from a single AppleID."

I'm also curious how both Apple and Adobe count enterprise installs. For instance our local high school has both FCPX and Premiere CC installed on a multitude of computers. Currently, most students use FCPX and only one or two per semester choose to use Premiere. I wonder how they account for those kinds of situations.


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Oliver Peters
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 6:28:36 am

Some data points. 1 million FCP X units sold. That's a verifiable number based on App Store and Volume licenses and ONLY includes FCP X. Obviously in some cases multiple operators might be working on several machines with installs from a single Apple ID. This means these all count as only 1, however, you have more actual users. Conversely, there are many users who purchased FCP X, but have never used it, except to play with it. In all likelihood, it's a conservative number, though FCP X users might not exclusively use only FCP X. I know I don't.

The 2 million FCP users number of the past, includes ALL versions up to 7, including FC Express and AFAIK, also the individual apps that became part of Studio.

As a measure of comparison, Avid stated there are 3 million users of SOME Avid product. This would include all versions of Media Composer, Pro Tools, storage, Interplay, Avid Graphics and Sibelius.

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Oliver Peters
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 6:37:57 am

Another data point from Autodesk. 8% of current computing is being done with desktops. 12% with laptops. 60% with phones and the rest with tablets.

The prime demos of FCP X by Apple and the related companies are on the Mac Pro and running 4K. IOW - FCP X with 4K is a great selling point to showcase the power of this new Mac Pro. Apple is a hardware company and FCP X facilitates the need for this machine.

Likewise, the majority of revenue that is generated by Avid is through the sales of shared storage.

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Leo Hans
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 1:00:34 pm

Oliver,
Steve Jobs once stated just the opposite.

I recall that on an interview with Walt Mossberg Steve Jobs said that iPhone's competitors don't get the picture because iPhone and every Apple product is not about hardware but software. In fact, he stated that Apple is a software company.


This a quote from SJ:

“People who are serious about software should make their own hardware.”

Leo Hans
Editor AVID - Final Cut Pro (7+X)
http://www.leohans.com


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Oliver Peters
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 1:10:33 pm

Apple operates internally based on developing a strong ecosystem. In fact, I have been told that it maintains a single P&L, not by divisions. The point is the total customer experience, based on vertical integration. In the end, it doesn't matter if FCP X makes money, because it helps sell hardware. If you like the software and it only runs on Apple gear, then you'll buy that hardware because you want to run that software. OTOH, all of this is successful only BECAUSE people buy a lot of their hardware, specifically iDevices these days and NOT desktops and laptops. It's that profitability that provides the fuel to be able to do the rest.

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 2:47:27 pm

[Oliver Peters] "Likewise, the majority of revenue that is generated by Avid is through the sales of shared storage."

Oliver,

You and Craig have both expressed this opinion before and it's wrong according too what I've read.

Their most recent filings, for example (2011) are in line with the claim that the revenue breakdown is 40% Video, 40% Audio, 20% Services.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AVID/3071713803x0x556388/A806F4C0-1F...

Do you have a source?

Franz.


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Tim Wilson
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 3:00:49 pm
Last Edited By Tim Wilson on Apr 7, 2014 at 3:09:55 pm

"Avid Video" includes storage, newsroom automation, playout servers, character generators and broadcast graphics, ingest, and literally over 200 products that never get talked about in this forum.

(No kidding. You can look it up. A lot of it is broadcast stuff that never touches post, which is why it's so easy to overstate the effect that FCP has had on Avid's fortunes. Only a fraction of what you'd think.)

So basically, everything but audio and services. :-)


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Oliver Peters
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 11:17:32 pm

Franz,

My sources are straight from Apple and Avid. Regarding the 1 million FCP X number, Larry and I both received he same info, but in different meetings. I asked if this was based on App Store sales and told that it was. The 3 million Avid users number was stated numerous times by Avid at the Connect event. The storage amount comes from various Avid comments. Philip Hodgetts has also dissected this info from their reports and has stated as much in blog posts. Majority (as in more than 50%) is probably not accurate. More accurate might be to state it as being a larger percentage than the others. I would consider Interplay sales as part of this.

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 8, 2014 at 12:06:39 am

[Oliver Peters] " The storage amount comes from various Avid comments. Philip Hodgetts has also dissected this info from their reports and has stated as much in blog posts."

2011 Earnings (linked above)

"Sales of video storage and workflow products accounted for approximately 21%, 18% and 16% of our consolidated net revenues in 2011, 2010 and 2009, respectively."

Franz.


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Oliver Peters
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 8, 2014 at 3:59:46 am

I believe those were years when Pinnacle was still owned, which would dilute the percentages. No telling now, since there are no current earnings reports.

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 8, 2014 at 4:34:50 am

[Oliver Peters] "I believe those were years when Pinnacle was still owned, which would dilute the percentages."

Oliver,

Yes, Pinnacle, M-Audio, AIR software sold in late 2012.

"Together, the consumer-focused operations contributed approximately $91 million of Avid's revenue in 2011 — about 13 percent of the company's total ..."

http://www.studiodaily.com/2012/07/avid-sells-off-consumer-product-lines-re...

Agreed, we don't know, but there's no support for the claim of "a larger percentage" than other sources or "the majority of revenue".

Franz.

Franz.


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Oliver Peters
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 8, 2014 at 4:39:31 am

" but there's no support for the claim of "a larger percentage" than other sources or "the majority of revenue"."

If you say so. Admittedly, I'm lumping ISIS, Unity, Airplay, Airspeed and Interplay all into one category. Let's just say that if these products were dumped, the company probably wouldn't survive on just Media Composer and Pro Tools.

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Oliver Peters
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 8, 2014 at 5:13:41 am

FWIW - re-reading the 2011 Avid Annual Report (a bit dated now, of course) - here's the breakdown of consolidated net revenue:

Pro video editing 11% (includes all editing software, but also hardware, like Nitris DX and turnkey Avid DS stations)
Storage/workflow products 21% (note that's about twice the above number)
Pro audio 14% (Pro Tools and other associated audio, like HD cards)
Control surfaces and live sound 11% (hardware consoles)

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Scott Witthaus
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 8, 2014 at 3:28:17 pm

Hey Oliver -

One can only think, with Avid's current emphasis on Avid Everywhere, those percentages will change even more towards hardware and away from software.

Of course, without balanced books, it's all speculation.

Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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Andre van Berlo
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 7:00:11 am

I've got PP cs6 installed and FCPX, I use FCPX for editing and CS6 these days only for the use of the warp stabiliser. That means that I count as 1 seat for Adobe and 1 seat for FCPX eventhough I do all editing on X only.

How many people have PP pro installed simply because they have the CC full subscription and they can download it and use it(at no extra cost) for their family videos? I bought the CS6 master collection a number of years ago and have all software installed but only really use 2 or 3 programs of that suite at the moment.

That there are people having X installed doesn't mean they're using it even though they're updating it BUT, it isn't part of a suite, one has to choose to buy it. That there are people that have Premiere Pro doesn't mean they're using it especially because it is part of a suite so they can install it even if they're not really using it.

In the end we know very little of very few things :-)


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Jim Wiseman
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 8:05:19 am

I have CS6 Production Suite with Premiere, et al., for it's excellent acceptance of many file based formats, Final Cut 7 Legacy for tape input primarily, Final Cut X 10.1.1, which I intend to do most of my work on in the very near future, and even Media 100 Suite 2.1.5 which will do Red and 4K if I would ever need it, and is up to date on 10.9.2. Still like it's simplicity and speed. All of them work on my new Mac Pro 2013 quite speedily, except for some problems with FCP 7 and lack of CS6 hardware Mercury support (hacks anyone?) which I can do on my 2012 Mac Pro tower with an Nvidia card and my 17" MacBook Pro. I only use Premiere CS6 to view multiple file based formats and translate clips into various flavors of ProRes (usually HQ), perhaps some level legalization and lower thirds and credits. I will never rent CC. I see it only as a world of hurt down the line.

From there I drop the ProRes into whichever NLE seems most appropriate for the project. With the new Mac Pro, I do believe it will be mostly FCPX in the future, where it shines. My work is by far mostly documentary and compilations of previous video art pieces, and I rarely use effects that can't be easily handled by Motion. So I get to avoid the Adobe morass, and still get my work done. I, for one, am very grateful for the hole that FCPX plugs for me. Glad I never spent much time learning Premiere.

Jim Wiseman
Sony PMW-EX1, Pana AJ-D810 DVCPro, DVX-100, Nikon D7000, Final Cut Pro X 10.1.1, Final Cut Studio 2 and 3, Media 100 Suite 2.1.5, Premiere Pro CS 5.5 and 6.0, AJA ioHD, AJA Kona LHi, Blackmagic Ultrastudio 4K, Avid MC, 2013 Mac Pro Hexacore, 1 TB SSD, 64GB RAM, 2-D500: Hexacore MacPro 3.33 Ghz 24Gb RAM GTX-285 120GB SSD, Macbook Pro 17" 2011 2.2 Ghz Quadcore i7 16GB RAM 250GB SSD


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Andre van Berlo
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 8:48:00 am

"I, for one, am very grateful for the hole that FCPX plugs for me. Glad I never spent much time learning Premiere."

I've picked up on FCPX very quickly and found it to match my brain more than Premiere Pro, eventhough I started on premiere pro. I was very happily surprised when I tried FCPX.

I am happy X does MTS files natively now as before I would need to transcode.


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 2:41:29 pm

[Oliver Peters] "1 million FCP X units sold."

Oliver,

Is this new info? The Larry Jordan link claims "installations" which would seem to imply demos as well.

[Oliver Peters] "Avid stated there are 3 million users of SOME Avid product. This would include all versions of Media Composer, Pro Tools, storage, Interplay, Avid Graphics and Sibelius."

Source?

Franz.


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Scott Witthaus
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 4:52:44 pm

[James Culbertson] "Currently, most students use FCPX and only one or two per semester choose to use Premiere. I wonder how they account for those kinds of situations"

James, that's a great point that I was just about to ask. I am seeing the exact same thing where I teach.

Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter


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tony west
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 1:00:34 pm

[Franz Bieberkopf] "Does 1 million users support the idea that Apple is achieving a wider, less specialized user base outside of facilities and traditional 'professional' enclaves?"

I'm not sure, because I think what's hurting Apple's numbers more than anything is young people coming out of school with no money to buy a new Mac.

In my town, post houses closed and stations cut back workers as our Union battles the NBC affiliate for a fair wage.

I'm sure my town in not unique.

I have a cousin coming out of school this year with a com degree and a new Mac is not even on her radar.


Would she run X, I don't know, haven't even talked to her about it. Why dangle it if it's not an option.


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Richard Herd
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 4:39:20 pm

[tony west] "young people coming out of school with no money "

Even worse than no money! In huge debt. It's a real problem in the US.


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Tim Wilson
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 4:46:11 pm

[Richard Herd] "Even worse than no money! In huge debt. It's a real problem in the US."

Over $1.2 trillion as of last June, just before federal college loan rates DOUBLED on July 1.

The total amount of student loan debt is now bigger than the total amount of credit card debt or auto loan debt in the US. It will remake the next generation of the American economy -- my own guess, vastly moreso than the sub-prime housing crisis.

You can use your own politics to make a conclusion about HOW that will happen, etc...but it's already starting to happen....


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Richard Herd
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 5:01:41 pm

[Tim Wilson] "use your own politics"

I've written my Senators (Reid and Heller ) and also Senator Warren (that) a very good solution is to make employer contributions to a loan repayment plan in a similar way to retirement and health benefits and also that repayment interest should be 100% deductible.

If student loan debt were to be treated like regular debt (ie susceptible to bankruptcy write down), the resulting collapse would be ... well, collapse.


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Charlie Austin
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 7, 2014 at 5:29:26 pm

To add to the OT, the reason there are so many giant loans for college, is because of the ease of getting giant loans for college. (or cars, or houses, or anything you can't really afford). Just saying... It's a result of the finacialization of, well, everything over the last 20-30 years... IMO of course. :-)

-------------------------------------------------------------

~ My FCPX Babbling blog ~
~"It is a poor craftsman who blames his tools."~
~"The function you just attempted is not yet implemented"~


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: Niche or Not? 3 years on ...
on Apr 8, 2014 at 12:42:55 am

Tim et al -

If you're up for some interesting reading, here's an article from the Atlantic Magazine on how Washington could make everyone's tuition free without spending a penny more in federal aid:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/03/how-washington-could-ma...

Food for thought...

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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