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Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey

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Lance Bachelder
Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 24, 2014 at 7:20:45 pm

Informal survey but pretty interesting results:







Lance Bachelder
Writer, Editor, Director
Downtown Long Beach, California
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1680680/?ref_=fn_al_nm_1


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David Mathis
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 24, 2014 at 8:03:55 pm

Very interesting. Of the Premiere Pro base just curious to know how many of them have CS compared to those that are on the subscription only model. That should be an interesting comparison.


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 24, 2014 at 8:14:07 pm

[David Mathis] "curious to know how many of them have CS compared to those that are on the subscription only model."

David,

... 2min mark; slightly less than 50% on CC (if you include all versions of CS).

I don't think most of the figures are of much use (except for his site), but this statistic is likely representative, and his search stats are interesting.

Franz.


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Craig Seeman
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 24, 2014 at 8:15:50 pm

[Franz Bieberkopf] "his search stats are interesting."

Nose dive for PPro as I saw it and it makes sense to me.



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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 24, 2014 at 8:23:38 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Nose dive for PPro as I saw it and it makes sense to me."

Craig,

That PPro line doesn't make sense to me: high point was 2004? with a bump in 2008?

Franz.


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Craig Seeman
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 24, 2014 at 8:33:08 pm

[Franz Bieberkopf] "That PPro line doesn't make sense to me: high point was 2004? with a bump in 2008?"

I hadn't noticed the dates in detail. I was assuming the drop because most CS6 users have been long time (although there are some new sales I'd imagine) and wouldn't be searching for tutorials. CC users would.

Of course that drop given the dates might well be why Adobe went CC. Sales dropping and people skipping upgrades means a decline in tutorial searches leaving them with "CCC" (Coerced Creative Cloud) in order to have ongoing income not dependent on upgrades.



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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 24, 2014 at 8:53:03 pm

[Craig Seeman] ""CCC" (Coerced Creative Cloud)"

- copyright established - copyright established -

now thats a good phrase. that should go on a t-shirt ideally.

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 24, 2014 at 8:56:52 pm
Last Edited By Franz Bieberkopf on Jan 24, 2014 at 9:02:20 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Of course that drop given the dates might well be why Adobe went CC. Sales dropping and people skipping upgrades means a decline"

Craig,

That interpretation applied to that chart could be restated:

Subscription can barely maintain sales in face of massive competitive opportunity.

Or, additionally:

CC Bundled Applications generate no new users for PPro.

Franz.


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Dennis Radeke
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 1:22:30 pm

Craig - at least you are consistent in hoping that Adobe will fail.


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Craig Seeman
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 1:53:07 pm

I don't think Adobe will fail. I do think they'll lose market share with the subscription model. Not that market share is related to profit. Actually as a business Adobe will do well unlike Avid. I also think a good chunk of those CS6 users will go elsewhere. Not necessarily to FCPX. Much of Dugdale's audience is not "high end" and in the mid and lower level market, competition is going to increase.



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David Lawrence
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 6:37:41 pm

[Craig Seeman] "I also think a good chunk of those CS6 users will go elsewhere."

This is absolutely correct.

Until Adobe management makes good on public statements such as this:

http://blogs.adobe.com/creativecloud/our-move-to-creative-cloud-an-update/

and provide a real, workable exit strategy for Creative Cloud subscribers, they'll continue to lose millions of previous customers and leave millions of dollars on the table.

_______________________
David Lawrence
art~media~design~research
propaganda.com
publicmattersgroup.com
facebook.com/dlawrence
twitter.com/dhl
vimeo.com/dlawrence/albums


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Mitch Ives
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 27, 2014 at 2:22:24 pm

Nobody wants Adobe to fail... though a lot of us would like to see CC fail...

Mitch Ives
Insight Productions Corp.

"Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things." - Winston Churchill


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 24, 2014 at 8:27:32 pm

yeah, but that nose dive was weird - it plummeted between 2005 - 2009. where it was in 2005 was just bizarre relative to FCP.
It actually looks pretty steady over the voldemort subscription era?

and the tutorial thing surprised me - I'd have bet any money FCP would have that stat clobbered. I mean - it should have that stat clobbered?

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Craig Seeman
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 24, 2014 at 8:14:21 pm

[David Mathis] "Of the Premiere Pro base just curious to know how many of them have CS compared to those that are on the subscription only model."

It looked like half were still on CS6 on the pie chart had individual breakdown. It'll be interesting to see how many of those CS6 users move to CC vs FCPX vs Other.

BTW given his DSLR focus CC does make sense because for Adobe users it's not just PPro but Photoshop probably getting significant use/value.



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Paul Neumann
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 5:49:14 am

Great point. And remember with CS3-CS5 with your upgrade you'd get that 30 day Lynda trial. That is such a boon for Photoshop users. On Lynda today you'll find 12 courses specifically for FCPX and 34 for PPro 6-CC.


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Andre van Berlo
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 9:59:10 am

I must say (this is probably off topic) that I found it weird that I've bought CS6 collection but all efforts of Adobe are focused on CC. This is somewhat disturbing as CS6 collection(master collection) wasn't really cheap. Nice they found a new way of selling products but to me feels like they leave the others who've invested in their company with "empty hands" in terms of feature updates. (or am i missing something?)
Also, when buying CS6 this was not really clear to me it was going in this direction. Having said that, don't think I would have done the subscription thing...


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Andy Field
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 1:14:19 pm

"am I missing something"

Yes - they just continued offering CS6 because, unlike Apple, they didn't end of life it - they just "end of developing'd" it No more feature updates.

If you want new features (and there are tons of them) move to CC. Premiere CC is light years better, faster and more FCP 7 like than Premiere CS6 (although that was pretty good)

You COULD still buy FCP 7 for a while if you rubbed your belly, patted your head and called a super-secret command center, but I think that ended a while ago...and that was only after a loud outcry from people who needed more seats and weren't about to use the THEN, not ready for prime time X.

CS 6 is fine if you want to be frozen in time with those features and whatever operating system it continues to work on...just as FCP 7 is fine in a similar fashion.

I prefer the fastest and most feature laden production tools....as with clients and business, time is money - and the new CC is a huge time saver for us....AND as a business, the monthly subscription fee for EVERYTHING adobe makes is less than the cost of taking a client to dinner to thank them for their latest 10 or 20 thousand dollar production job.

Andy Field
FieldVision Productions
N. Bethesda, Maryland 20852


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Andre van Berlo
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 3:17:35 pm

"CS 6 is fine if you want to be frozen in time with those features and whatever operating system it continues to work on...just as FCP 7 is fine in a similar fashion."

well that is exactly what I mean, 3k for a suite, and no feature updates never.... strange policy


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 4:43:03 pm

[Andre van Berlo] "well that is exactly what I mean, 3k for a suite, and no feature updates never.... strange policy"

What's strange about old versions of software being replaced by new versions of software that have new features? Have CS 5, FCP 6 or Avid MC 5.5 received any feature updates?




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Andre van Berlo
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 5:17:18 pm

"What's strange about old versions of software being replaced by new versions of software that have new features? Have CS 5, FCP 6 or Avid MC 5.5 received any feature updates?"

yes but how old are they? CS6 turned into old software about the minute it was created. released April 23, 2012, and announced dead May 6, 2013? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adobe_Creative_Suite)-->

Add to that the compatibility problems between CC and CS6 and I see they've found a way to get a few extra pennies...

They could also have updated the CS suite owners the first 2 - 2,5 years. Now people having bought software for 3K can start a subscription 1 year later because their programs are not compatible. I don't have those problems personally but it seems like a poor way to "repay" your loyal customers...


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David Lawrence
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 6:45:03 pm

[Andre van Berlo] "yes but how old are they? CS6 turned into old software about the minute it was created. released April 23, 2012, and announced dead May 6, 2013?"

CS6 isn't dead. It's still being sold and still gets updates.

_______________________
David Lawrence
art~media~design~research
propaganda.com
publicmattersgroup.com
facebook.com/dlawrence
twitter.com/dhl
vimeo.com/dlawrence/albums


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Andre van Berlo
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 7:13:33 pm

"CS6 isn't dead. It's still being sold and still gets updates."

I agree, but when CS6 owners will need CC (which has, the cc only software excluded, all the same programs) because their software isn't compatible anymore, isn't that kind of the same? But I guess because they're still selling it that's a risk one takes. At the same time, no one knew when cs6 was initially released that CC was around the corner and they would eventually have to switch to that. But I guess I'm the only one who thinks that's a bit odd. :-)

Anyway, didn't want to hijack this thread. By the looks of it, adobe is doing ok...


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Kevin Monahan
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 27, 2014 at 8:13:42 pm

[David Lawrence] "CS6 isn't dead. It's still being sold and still gets updates."

To be clear here, David. We'll release bug fixes to Premiere Pro CS6, not feature updates.

Thanks,
Kevin

Kevin Monahan
Social Support Lead
Adobe After Effects
Adobe Premiere Pro
Adobe Systems, Inc.
Follow Me on Twitter!


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 8:36:39 pm

[Andre van Berlo] "yes but how old are they? CS6 turned into old software about the minute it was created. released April 23, 2012, and announced dead May 6, 2013? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adobe_Creative_Suite)--> "

But that's normal. The day Avid 6.0 came out that's all you get. If you want new features you have to buy Avid 7. The day the new Mac Pro came out, boom, it's done. No new features unless you buy the next Mac Pro that will probably come out in 12-18 months. CS4, CS 5, CS 5.5, CS 6, etc., all the same thing. Once the products hits store shelves it's locked. It is what it is. A new version will come out and users can either pay to upgrade or not pay and keep using what they already have.




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Craig Seeman
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 8:43:09 pm

So far, if you bought FCPX all new feature updates have been free.
For Apple, new features may eventually encourage one to buy a new computer though.



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Andrew Kimery
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 8:55:25 pm

[Craig Seeman] "So far, if you bought FCPX all new feature updates have been free.
For Apple, new features may eventually encourage one to buy a new computer though."


Apple is obviously (and recently) the odd man out here but just a few years ago it was the same deal. Once FCP 6 or OSX 5 hit the store shelves that was that until FCP 7 and OSX 6 came around.




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David Lawrence
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 9:53:43 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "CS4, CS 5, CS 5.5, CS 6, etc., all the same thing. Once the products hits store shelves it's locked. It is what it is. A new version will come out and users can either pay to upgrade or not pay and keep using what they already have."

Yes, but the key difference is suddenly, without any warning, Adobe completely eliminated the upgrade path a significant number of users expected, leaving no option to buy the next version.

_______________________
David Lawrence
art~media~design~research
propaganda.com
publicmattersgroup.com
facebook.com/dlawrence
twitter.com/dhl
vimeo.com/dlawrence/albums


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 10:41:45 pm

[David Lawrence] "Yes, but the key difference is suddenly, without any warning, Adobe completely eliminated the upgrade path a significant number of users expected, leaving no option to buy the next version."

I guess I don't see it as a key difference though because as soon as software goes on sale it's dead as far as feature upgrades go and there's no guarantee that a future version will ever come. I agree that the upgrade path is not what anyone expected, but expecting Adobe to keep adding features to old versions of their software is just unprecedented.

Some would argue that Adobe restricting its upgrade policy (no more skipping versions if you wanted an upgrade discount) and rolling out CC as an option a few years ago were signs of things to come. But that just might be hindsight being 20/20.

But, hey, at least Adobe users have the option to access new versions of the software they've come to know and love unlike Apple users. ;) Shake, FCP Legend, FC Server, Color, etc.,. just *poof*... up in smoke. I was part of a team that, after over a year of testing and workflow development, was about to roll out FC Server in the LA and NY offices to unify the company's digital asset management programs (we're talking thousands of hours of media across a lot of different website and TV channels) and then Apple killed it. *That's* a kick in the nuts. lol




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Morten Ranmar
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 26, 2014 at 9:08:51 am

If you had a subscription plan for CS6, Adobe would have offered you at least one free year subscription for CC.
That is how we came a board on CC, and have chose to stay because of the great new features constantly coming.

Still have 2 Production bundles of CS6, so we can return to this if we do not want to continue paying for subscription. Photoshop, Audition and After Effects files translate directly (without new features), and Premiere edits can be reimported through XML. Only if I choose to use Speedgrade I will loose my color work.

- No Parking Production -

Adobe CC, 3 x MacPro, 3 x MbP, Ethernet File Server w. Areca ThunderRaid 8.... and FCPX on trial


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Charlie Austin
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 3:55:51 pm

[Andy Field] "You COULD still buy FCP 7 for a while if you rubbed your belly, patted your head and called a super-secret command center, but I think that ended a while ago..."

FCS 3 is still readily available if you need it. ;-)

-------------------------------------------------------------

~ My FCPX Babbling blog ~
~"It is a poor craftsman who blames his tools."~
~"The function you just attempted is not yet implemented"~


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David Mathis
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 25, 2014 at 7:51:04 pm

[Charlie Austin] "FCS 3 is still readily available if you need it. ;-)"

It is for me. Have it sitting on a shelf right now but X is really starting to grow on me. I am even getting along with the magnetic timeline now! I kind of miss tracks but that is becoming less of an issue.


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Charlie Austin
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 26, 2014 at 4:03:54 am

[David Mathis] "I kind of miss tracks but that is becoming less of an issue."

I did too, for a while. Now they just annoy me. :-)

-------------------------------------------------------------

~ My FCPX Babbling blog ~
~"It is a poor craftsman who blames his tools."~
~"The function you just attempted is not yet implemented"~


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Jack Zahran
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 28, 2014 at 6:47:10 am

The site owner is a Premiere CC user. Makes sense that he helps other Premiere users and those are what the stats reflect. I would have to say that is all they reflect, as he admits not being to sure what segment Avid MC is used for...


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Ben Mullins
Re: Dave Dugdale fun NLE survey
on Jan 28, 2014 at 11:41:21 am

Andrew Kimery
Once the products hits store shelves it's locked. It is what it is. A new version will come out and users can either pay to upgrade or not pay and keep using what they already have.

Not that I'm a fan of CC but one of the up sides seems to be the addition of new features on a regular basis without the need to upgrade. Premiere's updates are coming quite often and some certainly worthy of a .0 or new version release (round-tripping to Speedgrade for example).

In terms of the survey the conclusions you can draw from it are definitely limited given the results come from pretty much a single user base (as Dugdale states), however the DSLR market would surely be somewhere Apple would be looking to compete in with FCPX, and compared to Premiere it didn't seem to be doing too well. I fully agree though that all those CS6 users have to go somewhere and it very well may not be to CC, so the same survey a year or two from now will be interesting.

Ben.



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