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When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?

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Jim Hines
When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 12:37:09 pm

They've shown a propensity and no compunction to do so in the past - 9 to x - Motorola chips to Intel chips, FCP 7 to FCP X - USB & Firewire to Thunderthighs - the list goes on. Apple has never been interested in backwards compatibility.

Are any of the "stable" post houses with rich histories and longevity in the industry moving over to X?

Will the next shareholders meeting vote on cutting loose this low margin aspect of Apples business?


(I'm bored) : )


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Michael Sanders
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 12:58:29 pm

Which ones are you referring to? The one's still editing on 1" or the ones editing on U band?

Michael Sanders
London Based DP/Editor


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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:08:34 pm

The ones still making payroll because they didn't blow up the budget with frivolous capital expenditures every year.

Rock on!


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Michael Sanders
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:13:14 pm

And those ones are?

I'd hardly call £289 a frivolous capital expense, compared with ££££ for Avid, Smoke etc.

To be honest, if you're a facilities house that doesn't update computers and software every few years you are going to be out of business very quickly anyway.

Gone are the day's of buying a 1" etc and hoping it will pay off in three years, now kit (camera or post) needs to pay itself back much quicker.

Michael Sanders
London Based DP/Editor


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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:22:56 pm

The bigger more successful businesses - in every industry - hold on to their legacy systems to the bitter end. Good or bad - that's just been my observation.

I know for a fact - they do not like to have their systems and 5 year budgets held hostage to forced upgrades, e.g., ....if we upgrade our software we have to buy new hardware? Huh? or vice versa.

Rock on!


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Michael Sanders
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:26:20 pm

Yep and I know one high end co in the UK that has lost a lot of work because it's two year old ingest/asset management system couldn't handle 1080 25p, only 50i.

Seriously, 5 years - in this industry now? Your kidding right?

Michael Sanders
London Based DP/Editor


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Michael Sanders
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:29:48 pm

Yep and I know one high end co in the UK that has lost a lot of work because it's two year old ingest system couldn't handle 1080 25p, only 50i.

Seriously, 5 years - in this industry now? Your kidding right?

Don't know where your based so not sure if you heard about the BBC's DMI project? The idea was that everything should be online and accessible from where-ever. The BBC decided to build a bespoke system because 5 years ago it didn't exist. 5 years later on and its doable with off the shelf hardware for a lot less than the £100M the BBC put into the project.

That's how fast the tech is moving today.

A public service broadcaster could get away with that - a facilities not so much.

Michael Sanders
London Based DP/Editor


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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:34:11 pm

The law of diminishing returns is upon us. ESPN is cancelling its channel with 3D content for instance. Sometimes - even as exciting as the tech is - it's really not a necessity. That's just a casual example.

Rock on!


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Nikolas Bäurle
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:50:16 pm

Most FCP X editors I know here in Germany, still have their Legacy Systems. I still have my G5 FCP 6 in my workroom.
Most companies I know keep their Legacy Stuff and simply add the new.

For example: I've been freelancing for DW-TV in Berlin for 12 years now. When I started out in 2001 they were still using A/B roll editing, we started using Avid only for sound recording in 2002, then everything was changed. As of this year tape is pretty much dead. However if you need to dub UMatic at the DW, no problem. VJ at the Welle edit with Avid, Premiere, FCP Legacy and X. All TV stations in Germany take Apple ProRes.

About 6 months after X came out one of Germany's major Private TV stations Pro7 stopped taking tapes, since then only Apple ProRes, the postproduction where I edit Pro7 stuff, still uses Legacy, Avid and Premiere.

I just don't see how apple has made life harder for anyone. For those who don't like it, FCP 7 still works perfectly fine.

If it hadn't been for Apple, many of us wouldn't have bee able to afford our own editing systems, and since X came out I've been working more than ever, using Avid Newscutter, Legacy and X about the same amount of time each month.

"Always look on the bright side of life" - Monty Python



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Marcus Moore
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:06:21 pm

I think I've won out way more than I've lost by Apple being as forward-thinking as they have.

I'll take OSX over OS9, Intel over PowerPC, Thunderbolt over Firewire over USB, and-- yes (gasp!) FCPX over FCP7 any day.

If you don't like technological change you're in the wrong business.



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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:10:31 pm

Love technology - also love it when the innovator has the common courtesy to add a few simple lines of code so the legacy hardware doesn't overwhelm the landfill.

Rock on!


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Marcus Moore
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:21:26 pm

Mavericks is compatible with machines released as far back as 2007.

When Apple ended PPC support, it was 4 years after the transition to Intel.

Yup, no backwards compatibility at all....



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Nikolas Bäurle
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:24:32 pm

I heard FCP 7 works quite well on beta testing Mavericks.


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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:25:47 pm

Hoops hoops and more hoops. Here is Apple's problem - they market their technology as the best things since slice bread and the very next year they tell you why it's awful and you need to upgrade to this entirely different thing with all new hardware and software to match. Most people only fall for that trick a couple times at best.

Rock on!


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Marcus Moore
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:32:08 pm

You'd have a point if Apple did this every year- they don't. If that's they way you read it that's your issue.

Firewire to Thunderbolt- A DECADE.
40-pin dock connector to Lightning connector - 11 YEARS.
Major NLE switch- A DECADE.
Mac Processor switch- TWICE IN 35 YEARS



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Eric Santiago
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:39:43 pm

These aren't the Droids your looking for...


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Bob Zelin
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:38:58 pm

Hi Jim -
the answer to your question is "every 3 to 4 years". And this does not only apply to Apple - it's every technology company. I know very well, that large companies want a "10 year investment". Or I hear people say "how can I future proof my purchase". Again - simple answer - you CANT future proof your investment. The only good investement is a good chair, a good desk, a good lamp, and good AC outlet strips (and if you are big - good quality racks). All technology will wind up in the dumpster within 3 - 4 years. It is amazing that a Mac Pro 3,1 from 2008 is still useful today. All the old linear gear from yesteryear is only good for playing back archive tapes, and that stuff cost a FORTUNE. It is inconceivable to many young editors that a single VTR costs between $15,000 and $100,000 dollars, and you "had" to have one. Today, people cry over spending $200 bucks for a disk drive.

And speaking of disk drives, do you know that in 2014, we will see the beginning of 12g drive technology. So in the same way that Apple "pulled the rug out" from the G5 with PCIx slots to the Mac Pro with PCIe slots (and of course, the old 1,1 and 2,1 are 32 bit only, so you have to have a 2008 or later Mac Pro) - with the new drives, you will have compatibility issues, no different than we had when 6g drives were released in early 2011, and all the "old" 3g drives were too slow, and not compatibile with many host controller cards. And of course, dramatically faster. And remember - 6g only came out in 2011, and now it will be 2014, when the dramatically faster 12g drives (and arrays, and host controller cards) will be out. 3 years - that is not a long time to have a "new" yet obsolete disk drive array.

SO - who will complain ? Will AJA, Blackmagic, Matrox, ATTO, Areca, Magma, Sonnet, etc. complain ? OF COURSE NOT - they get to sell new products that will work wonderfully with the new Mac's. The only people that will complain is US, because we are the suckers that keep buying into this crap. And all of this applies to cameras and production gear as well. In the stone age, you bought your ARRI film camera, and kept it your entire career. Now, the RED ONE comes out a few years ago, and now it's obsolete.

So yea, if you don't like this fact, you should not be in this business. And when I hear this crap from larger firms video departments, I always say "tell your accountants that the Windows operating system that you are running your accounting software on will soon no longer run the exact same companies new accounting software, so you will either do a PC upgrade for your entire accounting department, or you will not be able to do your job, and you will get FIRED !". It's 2013 - is there a single accountant working on a 1995, 1996 PC ? It's across the board - not just our little segment of the business.

Don't like this fact ? Buy a meat slicing machine, and open up a deli, because that meat slicing machine will cut turkey and ham for over 10 years, and you don't need to worry about a new one in 3 years.

Bob Zelin

Bob Zelin
Rescue 1, Inc.
maxavid@cfl.rr.com


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Marcus Moore
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:43:26 pm

[claps]



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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 1:45:32 pm

Good post Bob Zelin.

In the end - what about the art? Huh? Honestly the most beautiful paintings I've ever laid eyes on are those 30 thousand year old scribbles at Chauvet Cave.

Maybe we take our tools a little too serious at the expense of creativity.

P.S Bob, maybe you shouldn't be in the business if you can't tell a compelling story unless you have the latest gadget from Apple. LOL

Rock on!


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Marcus Moore
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 2:01:45 pm

That's a beautiful straw man you built for yourself.

Be careful with matches.



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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 2:04:20 pm

Funny you would mention some good old fashioned technology like matches.

Rock on!


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Marcus Moore
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 2:16:35 pm

Yeah, it's hilarious. Like it was part of an analogy or something...

Last words because you're insane- no one's forcing you to do anything. Apple doesn't mandate that upgrades are necessary, and they don't force you to upgrade if you're happy where you are. If you want to live on Snow Leopard and FCP7 for a decade because it's working for you- awesome!

YOU choose YOUR level of involvement.

Don't put that on Apple.

That's all you.



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Nikolas Bäurle
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 2:20:57 pm

I actually had a modern technology discussion with my old landlord in Berlin (dentist, vegan, intellectual, grumpy old man) he avoids anything new if possible.
He immediately started about the lack of creativity and modern technology.

I agreed, technology doesn't make you a better storyteller, but it sure makes it a lot easier to get your message out. Its not as bulky anymore. Nowadays you could even do a Howard Hughes 25 cam shoot for a lot less money. During the 20s didn't a film camera with Dolly take about 5 people to work on, some of those old cams are almost as big as tanks.

And it's interesting to see how quickly we forget how much crap was produced when film was invented. Or what about the original Scarface, compared to Al Pacino in color or something like Braking Bad. Evolution

Development in Storytelling goes along with improvements in Technology, or is a screenwriter a bad storyteller for being able to use spell check?

"Always look on the bright side of life" - Monty Python



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Neil Hurwitz
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 17, 2013 at 2:46:02 am

This type of thread pops up every now and again and
Even though I am completely out of the biz I still like to keep up.
I had the first AVID MC 8000 in NYC installed by BZ 1992
And was in biz for 13 years before that. So here is my two cents.
This industry has gone from a Money Maker to just Plain Sh-t.
There are those who whine and say what about the “ART”
Well guys I hate to bust your bubble but it doesn’t matter.
NOBODY ever said, I got to watch this show or see this film because
of the editor or colorist. You can be replaced instantly.
Moreover, lots of the lines of value added services, are being leached out by technology.
No more money from time code burn-ins, dubs,
film to tape, standards conversion, and hourly charges for gear.
All you got to sell now is TIME
and it’s relatively cheap time to boot.
We used to have these discussions on the Old Avid-L and I always said
And still say today that without markup on equipment and without a high economic barrier to entry, running edit bays is like driving a TAXI, and will pay the same wages.
We used to add in a CHRYON MAXINE and bill an additional 125.00 per hour to an edit session. Dual Twin Deveous 350 per hour.
The Sushi Flowed and Dry Cleaning was picked up.
We billed 6 to 7 grand for a 8 hour studio session ona regular basis.
There simply isn’t the same money making opportunity anymore.

No sour grapes here, I’m glad I spent 32 years
in the biz and now it’s time for a younger generation to come in.
I just don’t see them having the same money making
potential that existed 32 years ago.
Not to mention that we had some really really cool toys to play with
Flying around a Warren Smith Animation stand was fun
Playing with the ADO Joystick was fun
Watching 4 VPR3’s spin up and zip along was fun
Watching 100 VHS machines automatically cycle thru a dub run was fun
A Big Switcher with lots of Keyers and ME’s was fun
Just getting all the stuff to work was fun.

Sitting in a dark room looking at a computer monitor all day
Is Not Any Fun At All.

I’m willing to bet that Full Sail down in Fla. is the most profitable company In the biz, not because they make great shows
but because they con young kids into paying ridiculous tuition for training in a career that has way more aspirants then slots. For me it was all telling when a regular poster on the COW announced
That he was forming an “Education Division” with their own Educational Programming.
Rake those suckers in.


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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 17, 2013 at 3:08:45 am

Sounds like sour grapes to me Neil. Why do you hate art?

I work a relatively small amount of time from my own home and pay the bills and feed the wife and kids. Don't know where you took a wrong turn but it's obviously left you angry and unfulfilled. I humped luggage at a hotel until I was 45 and then I went to a school - not full sail - It was a blast - learned some stuff, met some people - nobody bought my sushi or paid for my dry cleaning - but - trust me this is better than the hotel.

Rock on!


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Andrew Kimery
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 17, 2013 at 3:22:15 am

[Neil Hurwitz] "There simply isn’t the same money making opportunity anymore."

There's also not the same amount of gear and overhead investment anymore. An interesting comparison would be profitability vs revenue.




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Michael Gissing
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 17, 2013 at 4:36:00 am

Given the bang for buck ratio we all now enjoy it is obvious that the tech turnover cycle has to be shorter. I am pleasantly surprised to find I have been able to get as much life out of my FCS3 & MacPro investment and it will get me a bit further yet.

I have always found the lack of backwards compatibility an issue for all NLEs compared to DAWs that I have used over the past 20 years. It seems to be a deliberate design characteristic. Annoying yes but nothing new there.

A lot of people thought Adobe were pulling the rug out with CC but it seems like it is just a moving footpath not a sliding rug. Apple had to start again with FCPX so again no surprises that it was totally new and not backwards compatible. Many were miffed that the rug was pulled abruptly before the newer furniture had all its legs on. So be it. Trust is a fickle thing and I trust Apple less now than I did before.

But to be fair we must expect software cycles and departures that break things before they can be put back together in hopefully elegant perhaps new ways. Apart from goading some regulars here back into their trenches I see nothing new or insightful arguing from a combative viewpoint. Perhaps I have mellowed in the two years this forum has been churning ideas. Perhaps I am busy and not bored.


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Craig Seeman
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 2:24:57 pm

I really think you're in the wrong industry... which would be about any tech based industry given your opinion. I've been in post production for over 30 years. Change is the norm.

You can keep legacy gear going as long as you like. Technology changes. Business models of the developers change. Maybe you should be angry at CMX, Ampex, Chyron as well.

Nearly every developer hardware or software has to jettison compatibility with older hardware and/or older operating systems.



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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 2:42:58 pm

The ole "you're in the wrong industry" canard.

The guys who don't go bankrupt while simultaneously accepting their Oscar are on to the needless upgrade con game.

Rock on!


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Craig Seeman
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 3:29:22 pm

Yes in this business at some point you'll have to upgrade.
And as time progresses the cost of "baseline professional" hardware and software keeps getting lower.
Feel free to avoid it and you'll either be limited or gone at some point.
After all you might be fine with a Sony VX2000 editing on an Apple PowerMac G4 with Radius EditDV but you're not going to be able to work with clients who want HD and shooting in any number of modern codecs.



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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 3:48:33 pm

Upgrading would suggest what you're getting is better than what you had. It should also be absolutely necessary. Otherwise it's just keeping up with the Jones'.

Rock on!


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Craig Seeman
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 4:00:41 pm

That's always the case. Each of our businesses have different demands, different growth objectives, different client bases.

Ironically some here had been concerned as to how slow Apple was in offering an update to the MacPro. Others have been perfectly functional working on 2007's FCP 6 while they wait to see which NLE gets enough revisions and updates to be deemed a worthy replacement.



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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 4:02:29 pm

The first one that offered 64 bit got my money. Might as well be able to use all the extra ram you can put in the boxes now.


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Craig Seeman
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 4:10:36 pm

MC7, PPro CC, FCPX are all 64bit and have been so for some time.
Same goes for modern OSs and hardware.



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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 4:23:56 pm

Yeah - that's been the only real core improvement for some time now. Pretty sure PPro was the first up on that. Magnetic timeline? That doesn't qualify as an upgrade.


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Ben Mullins
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 3:39:38 pm

I don't think there's many people who 'needlessly' upgrade, although there's always people who just have to have the latest software/hardware regardless. But at some point an upgrade will make your life easier, whether it's adding a new function (like Premiere-Speedgrade round tripping), or developing improved hardware, or anything in between. Things change and evolve naturally, especially in a tech-based industry.



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Michael Benton
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 5:01:16 pm

Some great analysis on the discussion of technology advancement in here. Thanks all. Too bad the OP's ongoing statements/behavior is so childish.


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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 5:13:05 pm

Speaking of childish; too bad you don't have the common courtesy - or would that be courage - to address me personally with your insults.



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Bernard Newnham
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 5:30:10 pm

[Michael Sanders] "Don't know where your based so not sure if you heard about the BBC's DMI project? The idea was that everything should be online and accessible from where-ever. The BBC decided to build a bespoke system because 5 years ago it didn't exist. 5 years later on and its doable with off the shelf hardware for a lot less than the £100M the BBC put into the project. "

Not, I think, at the size the BBC needed, and with the flexibility they wanted. The BBC creates material in orders of magnitude larger than pretty much anyone else, including major post houses. It wasn't going to work 5 years ago, and it wouldn't work now.

It certainly wasn't going to work ten years ago when I was making an in-house BBC doc about bomb disposal officers, and I had to explain that if they had this system they wouldn't be able to to put my rushes onto the common system, nor have my editing notes, because we'd made an agreement with the Army. The IT people didn't live on the same planet as I did.

Bernie


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Bill Davis
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 7:26:03 pm

[Jim Hines] "The ole "you're in the wrong industry" canard.

The guys who don't go bankrupt while simultaneously accepting their Oscar are on to the needless upgrade con game.

Rock on!"


Ok then.

Congrats dude, Your "brand" is now nicely established.

You're the next in a long line of "I'll post a Bash Apple provocative headline - and watch what happens" - posters."

Just to make things easier, you don't have to make this stuff up yourself, go back and check Julian Bowman's posting history - he kinda invented the identity nearly a year ago. SO you've kinda got to accept that you're gonna be an "also ran" in this arena, but good luck, nonetheless..

It's important if you want to inherit Julian's mantle, to make sure that EVERYTHING you post here starts with a clean, targeted trashing at either Apple or FCP-X to protect your brand identity.

After all, it's the brand that makes you "special" doesn't it? You're the anti-fanboy! Rock on indeed!

The tricky part is to maintain that brand, and then find that, like Julian, you actually might wish to USE FCP-X and start finding things about Apple's evil plans that are useful to your work or life. Because obviously you then have to keep posting how horrible it is, while you simultaneously ask people over and over again for help in learning how to use it! That's a damn tricky thing to manage.

Heck, appearing at any public gathering for Subject A and standing up and telling everyone that "any public gathering about Subject A" is inherently LAME is quite a bold tactic fur sure!

I for one am going to help you establish your newfound identity by making you just the second poster (after Julian) to be dumped in my "don't pay ANY attention to this guy" list of posters. So you truly ARE special to me now.

So congrats. Welcome to the board.

Others here will surely make time for you.

I just won't.

Yep, Rock on! (your own special self)

; )

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 7:36:36 pm

N/A


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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 7:40:53 pm

Hilarious.


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Michael Garber
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 5:47:32 pm

[Jim Hines] "They've shown a propensity and no compunction to do so in the past - 9 to x - Motorola chips to Intel chips, FCP 7 to FCP X - USB & Firewire to Thunderthighs - the list goes on. Apple has never been interested in backwards compatibility.

I don't really know why I'm getting into this conversation. Guess I'm bored, too ;P.

OS9 to X? Seriously? I can only assume you're baiting people into an argument with that one. Actually, I think you're baiting us all with your entire post. But I'm game, so here goes.

Motorola chips ran hot. Remember the "blow dryer" G4? Thunderbolt is way faster than firewire - and there's TH to FW compatible cables. USB3 is backward compatible to USB2. Don't see the issue with any of this.

FCP 7 to X. It's been 2+ years. I've moved on. It now works much better for me for lots of the projects I'm working on. I'm using both 7 and X. X clients are very happy and I've seen a return on my investment in my iMac. 7 clients are legacy jobs or documentaries that started 4 or 5 years ago. FCP 7 still works and I've kept a legacy system around for when it won't work.

I spent a whopping $600 on a 6TB Thunderbolt drive late last year that's faster than any drive I'd previously owned for that amount of money. I also sold lots of old gear on Craigslist. So, other than a little bit of extra work, which I've done every 2-3 years since I started my business in 2000, I've not had any issues with this current upgrade path.

For eSATA, get a $20 USB3 to eSATA adapter. They work great.

I also finally sold my waveform/vectorscope. And I said goodbye to tape officially. I'm very happy to move on from both of these pieces of gear that break down or need calibration often enough to be a nuisance.

The huge cluster**** that I thought thunderbolt would be has turned out to be a very easygoing parceling out of gear that either stacks or hides quite nicely on my desk. So, to wrap up, this incremental change worked out just fine for me...

...and I don't plan on it to last. In a year, if I don't have a Mac Pro and a 4k monitor, I'll be left in the dust. Fact o' life and fact o' business in a highly competitive environment.


[Jim Hines] "Are any of the "stable" post houses with rich histories and longevity in the industry moving over to X?

I don't know of any stable post houses. If you come across one, please let me know. I'd love to find out their secret. My feeling is that the post-related facilities who embrace new technology and lead the way (CO3, Light Iron) are the ones who survive. Light Iron seems to be embracing it. I also find that the companies that have their hands in areas other than just post have more longevity.

Many post houses flourish for a time on big budget jobs, suffer when those clients move on, go through ownership transfers and squabbles, get gobbled up by bigger companies, or just liquidate and move on. That's been my eagle-eye view of the industry since the mid-90s. It hasn't changed since 1" was king.

A post house's success rides on its clients. The equipment they own plays a huge part of that because they need to be able to provide the best product for the price. When word gets out at Computer X can provide Y service. Client Z talks to the post producer and requests the service. If it can't be provided, Client Z moves to another facility.

When new tech comes out, smaller, lighter companies emerge that can do more for less quicker. I was part of this cycle back in 2000 when FCP 1.0 was released. By 2004, I was coloring syndicated shows and documentaries that the "stable" houses were doing. Because of this, the big companies become top-heavy and the cycle starts over.

By 2011, my company was top heavy. I sold off the detritus, looked at the new landscape and started over. It's hard as **** but sometimes you don't have control over it.

If you can figure out a way to end this cycle and allow the post world to exist solely on an upward trend where everyone profits, then you will win the prize.


[Jim Hines] Will the next shareholders meeting vote on cutting loose this low margin aspect of Apples business? "
Can't the same be said for Avid, being a public company and all?


This video has been circling the inter-ways for the past 18 hours or so. Give it a look-see.
http://www.fcp.co/final-cut-pro/news/1231-michael-cioni-talks-about-innovat...

Michael Garber
5th Wall - a post production company
Blog: GARBERSHOP
My Moviola Webinar on Cutting News in FCP X


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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 6:07:45 pm

[Michael Garber] "I don't really know why I'm getting into this conversation. Guess I'm bored, too ;P."

: ) That was a pleasant rebuttal. Thanks for passing the time with me.

Just Re: Avid - this is all Avid does. Probably why no one has knocked them off as of yet. Surely you see that the potential is much greater for a company like Apple to simply discontinue this aspect of their business if the shareholders deem it's a liability?


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Michael Garber
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 6:57:55 pm

[Jim Hines] ": ) That was a pleasant rebuttal. Thanks for passing the time with me. "

I try not to get too crazy about these things. But seriously, you post something like this in the lion's den without anything to backup your claims, prepare to get eaten for dinner!

[Jim Hines] "Just Re: Avid - this is all Avid does. Probably why no one has knocked them off as of yet. Surely you see that the potential is much greater for a company like Apple to simply discontinue this aspect of their business if the shareholders deem it's a liability?
"


I thought at the NAB launch, one of the guys from Apple said that FCP X was their plan for the next decade. When they say something publicly, I feel they are good for their word. Because they are a public company, they could face a backlash for misrepresenting something like that.

This is from Wikipedia: Immediately after the release and its backlash, Richard Townhill, Senior Director of Applications Marketing at Apple, gave a public interview stating that Apple had a 10 year development plan for the software.

As for Avid, you are correct, it is all they do. They were too stratified, so they shored up and are now focusing on their core products. I think that's great news for Avid editors. But they are not innovating enough for me to jump on board.

The software feels incredibly old and clunky and does not fit into my workflow. Whenever they develop new features, they don't seem to quite fit with the aesthetic of the rest of the software or the OS. Just a simple case-in-point, the new AMA import window in MC 7. Annoyingly, it doesn't react like a regular finder import dialog window. It is its own thing.

Also, I've called Avid sales managers many times to ask questions and have never received a return phone call. I find that a compelling reason not to move over.

Since FCP X is "new" and has so many hooks into the OS, it feels fresh(er), more responsive. I fully admit this wasn't the case when it first launched. This has only been my experience since upgrading to the iMac.

Avid has gone through major architectural changes in the past, too. It's just been a long time (in industry time) since the last one. They've also sold hardware (eg my analog Mojo) that are no longer supported.

I've only dabbled in Avid, but for the the work I do, FCP has almost always cut the bill. It's always been forward looking and better suited (again, for my purposes alone) for Quicktime/file-based editorial. The hiccup in that chart occurred directly after the launch and lasted for about a year, right around the time I was restructuring my company and work.

Michael Garber
5th Wall - a post production company
Blog: GARBERSHOP
My Moviola Webinar on Cutting News in FCP X


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Jim Hines
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 7:25:51 pm

[Michael Garber] "10 year development plan for the software."

That's very ambiguous. Development plan could mean a lot of things. Some of them not so good for professional use.

[Michael Garber] "post something like this in the lion's den without anything to backup your claims, prepare to get eaten for dinner!"

I was bored. No easier group to get riled up than Apple guys - right? I could have posted something about windows somewhere and waited three years for somebody to care about it.


[Michael Garber] "FCP has almost always cut the bill."

I use to use FCP Studio 2 I liked it alot but I got tired of explaining to my clients what rendering means. So when PPro went 64 bit I crossed over. Was due for a hardware upgrade as well so I got an off the shelf Dell for next to nothing - upgraded the video card when Mercury Playback was introduced.

Let's be honest though. They all do the same thing. None of them has made me a "better" editor. Some have made it less tedious or faster. I would like to get "better". Know any good books on theory that have been printed recently?


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Scott Thomas
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 17, 2013 at 5:35:27 am

[Jim Hines] "I was bored. No easier group to get riled up than Apple guys - right? I could have posted something about windows somewhere and waited three years for somebody to care about it. "

Yeah, I used to be an Avid user and an investor in Avid. Note the past-tense. I can understand why you're bored now.


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Marcus Moore
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 7:04:49 pm

#1- Shareholders have no impact on Apple's business decisions. Certainly not when they're making this much money quarter to quarter with their primary monetary drivers. When iPhones, iPads, and Macs aren't the most profitable products in each of their respective categories, let me know and maybe that idea will have some relevance.

#2- FCPX and it's development has so little weight against their balance sheet, it would save them very little money to scrap them. Based on the last sales numbers we got, and FCPX's current ranking in the appStore, I think it's fair to say it's making it's development $$ back.

The only reason Apple walks away from Pro Apps is if interest their products dries up, or if THEY decide to.

And there's no evidence at this point to think they're walking away from X. They just refreshed Logic. They just refreshed the MacPro.

On a long enough horizon you can question the life of any of the NLEs. Is AVIDs business sustainable to the upper 5% of the market? Is Adobe's CC gamble going to pay off?

Nothing is certain.



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Bill Davis
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 7:38:31 pm

[Marcus Moore] "#2- FCPX and it's development has so little weight against their balance sheet, it would save them very little money to scrap them. Based on the last sales numbers we got, and FCPX's current ranking in the appStore, I think it's fair to say it's making it's development $$ back.
"


Marcus.

You can also see the X development effort as an efficient way for Apple to run a few division on their org chart that actually code complex software on a day to day basis. For any computer company, this is a very valuable thing at a root level.

Remember when Legacy team members got delayed because some of them were shuffled off to the iPhone intro? Having on-going "state of the art" software development efforts in house gives you a very attractive competitive proposition to hire and maintain highly skilled coding talent.

That alone might drive Apple to keep an effort like X going. They arguably have the the "A-team" of global media software development working to do what Apple's brand has always been built around - innovation.

Need to solve a problem with Apple TV or iCloud video deployment? Call (insert name) two buildings over on the X team and tap the expertise - otherwise you have to hire out (security concerns) or go through months to post, vet and hire talent.

Makes a LOT of sense to me.

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


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Marcus Moore
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 8:18:09 pm

I also think that it has at least something to do with not wanting to be over a barrel if AVID and Adobe decide they want to go PC only. Though it's been well over a decade since Apple came out of the dark times, I think they still harbour a fear that those companies will take their pucks and go home.

Apple was so close to the edge, if they lost the professional publishing and video markets in the '90s they might not have made it thru the leanest of years. I think this probably drove Apple to invest in Pro apps in the first place.

Plus I think it's undeniable that Apple likes to have it's cake and eat it too- being the computer for everyone with their iOS devices, while at the same time being the machine for creative professionals [not just A/V, but app creation as well] at the top end. Perception does filter down, which is why I never believed that they'd stop building a MacPro [let alone the Mac!], and why I think they'll continue to invest in the creative arts software.



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Andrew Kimery
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 6:22:44 pm

[Jim Hines] "They've shown a propensity and no compunction to do so in the past - 9 to x - Motorola chips to Intel chips, FCP 7 to FCP X - USB & Firewire to Thunderthighs - the list goes on. Apple has never been interested in backwards compatibility. "


Apple went from Moto chips to IBM (still PPC though) because Moto pretty much stopped designing new chips and hanged Apple out to dry. Everything was good with IBM at first but then IBM didn't seem to show any interested in aggressive CPU development so then Apple switched to Intel because they were up a creek again. The move to Intel was about the survival of the company (no exaggeration) and not because they just decided to do something different.

Apple did eventually drop FW (USB 3 is still on all the machines IIRC) but I think the writing as on the wall a as soon as Thunderbolt was announced. ThBolt and FW existed side by side on Macs for 18-24 months before FW stopped appearing in 2013. That's not a 'rug pull' IMO and you can still get adapters to go between FW and ThBolt.




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Nikolas Bäurle
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 6:38:59 pm

Has anyone seen this? MIchael Cioni's (Light Iron) point of view of Innovation in production & post. The part about X starts at 13:37, the rest ist very interesting too.



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Tom Sefton
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 9:14:47 pm

I can't think of a single equipment or software upgrade in the last 10 years that we have made that hasn't helped our productions get better in quality, faster, easier to plan and execute and higher in standard of video. Apple has been as big a part of this as any supplier with the exception of blackmagic design.


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Oliver Peters
Re: When do you think Apple will pull the rug out from under you again?
on Sep 16, 2013 at 10:30:13 pm

[Jim Hines] "In the end - what about the art? Huh? Honestly the most beautiful paintings I've ever laid eyes on are those 30 thousand year old scribbles at Chauvet Cave."

And then the cavemen slaughtered the next poor schmuck who innovated chalk to replace that legacy art tool - burnt charcoal sticks from the fire. ;-)

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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