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Michael Phillips
Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 12:53:17 pm

One thing that jumped out at me yesterday, at least in the phone space is how Apple has become much more focused on hardware sales and software is now free. When I saw iWorks, iMovie, etc, free with latest devices, it truly has become the loss leader to create a mobile hardware lifstyle devices. Nothing new there, but the free apps sort of cemented that concept.

And I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing happen with the new MacPro and Mavericks with FCPx. Buy the new MacPro and get FCPx for free. Not saying it will happen, just wouldn't be surprised by it considering yesterday's announcements.

Michael


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Mark Dobson
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 1:15:33 pm

[Michael Phillips] "Buy the new MacPro and get FCPx for free. "

I'd like to see that turned round!

Apple want to get people hooked on their software, I'm hooked and an active member of AA (Apple Anonymous), it would just be too much hassle to switch to another platform now whether that's my phone or my iMac or the new MacPro.


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Michael Phillips
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 1:28:44 pm

I think Apple wants to get people hooked on their platform(s) so they get 30% of everyone else's software. And giving their software away for free which they did for their iOS apps has already been done. So if setting precedence, I wouldn't be surprised to see the same for MacPro.


Michael


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Bob Woodhead
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 1:39:41 pm

This was what we were saying when Legacy first got it's legs.... "Apple's got this fantastic, really cheap NLE, but you have to buy this big dongle to go with it" (aka, MacPro).

Deja vu', all over again.

"Constituo, ergo sum"

Bob Woodhead / Atlanta
CMX-Quantel-Avid-FCP-Premiere-3D-AFX-Crayola
"What a long strange trip it's been...."


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 4:49:39 pm

[Bob Woodhead] "This was what we were saying when Legacy first got it's legs.... "Apple's got this fantastic, really cheap NLE, but you have to buy this big dongle to go with it" (aka, MacPro)."

Yeah, but last I checked, all other NLE's require a computer, too.

And some of them required a small dongle, along with the big dongle.

It's not really Deja Vu, it's that Apple is doing what it has always been doing, instead of simply updating a proven form factor, they completely redesign it.


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Marcus Moore
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 1:44:24 pm

While I think we will see something mirroring the iWork on iOS apps relating to the Mac, I don't think that we'll see Apple commoditize FCPX as well.

Right now the game is for different tech companies to commoditize the primary revenue drivers for their competition.

Microsoft's licensing of Windows to OEMs forced them to fight eachother for marketshare, driving the price of hardware down.

Amazon sells Kindle hardware at break-even or even a slight loss to drive traffic to their store, where they make their money.

Google is prepared to pretty much give away both hardware AND software, because their real source of revenue is web-based ads and the user info they sell to companies.

Apple has traditionally commoditized software to sell hardware. The original FInal Cut was a MASSIVE price drop from the incumbent NLE options of the early '00s. Apple bundled iLife software with Macs. The environment of the appStores has pushed software prices down. And FCPXs $299 price point once again redefined the price of editing software.

Since Microsoft has seen fit to hold back Microsoft Office on iOS devices, I think Apple sees an opportunity to basically make sure they never get a foothold by supplying these productivity apps for free. At WWDC, Apple announced a web-based iWork- so even if you're a PC user at home, you can use iWork across your iOS and Windows PC for nothing- while Microsoft is now looking for an ongoing subscription price for Office365. This makes sense. I could also see Apple just completely doing away with an upgrade fee for OSX updates. The $19.99 is a drop in the bucket against their quarterly earning, and they may see more profit from giving away OSX in perpetuity in lieu of driving hardware sales AND having the largest possible percentage of Mac users be on the newest OS.

FCPX is specialized software- so I don't see them giving it away. Wouldn't LogicX also have to be free? It's price is already low in comparison to the other offerings.



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Michael Phillips
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 1:59:56 pm

Your conclusion is similar to my thinking. If software is a drop in the bucket in relation hardware sales, then again, I wouldn't be surprised to see FCPx free with the purchase of a new MacPro. Those without a new MacPro can still purchase at the $299 price. Even if it's for a limited time offer. And why not Logic and other more Pro apps? It would justify whatever price they might apply - unknown how many versions there will be, but perhaps with the top model? And of course, it's the perception of free... you'll pay for it one way or another. :)

Apple does what Apple does - only taking precedence and applying it to yet to be released new hardware and seeing if it makes sense or not.

Just like I wouldn't be surprised, (and glad that it hasn't), that the only way to add plug-ins to FCPx would be through the App Store forcing developers to give up 30% of their revenue. Because "it is the refined and expected Apple experience..." But I'd have to think it's been discussed.

Just thinking out loud...


Michael


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Oliver Peters
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 3:05:28 pm

I agree and wouldn't be surprised either to see a tie-in, but...

The smart phone space has hit the wall, so it's hard for Apple to come out with anything that will really blow anyone's socks off. iWork is really competing against Google Docs rather than Office, so this is an attempt to counter things related to Android, not the desktop.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Chris Harlan
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 6:21:36 pm

[Oliver Peters] "this is an attempt to counter things related to Android, not the desktop.
"


I agree. iProducts are now their main course, and they are being threatened by some truly serious competition. They are giving away these overly-mature products that have little growth potential to combat share loss in the iWorld. I DO hope that X is something different to them.

And, the Mac Pro is definitely something different to them. My gut is they would be seriously contaminating both it and X by treating X as loss-leader at the Mac Pro's release. First off, such a deal would have very little influence on any potential Mac Pro buyer I can imagine. Second, it would make X look cheap, not inexpensive, and maybe subliminally signal that X is pretty much done.

I can envision some sort of Pro Package, at a very modest discount, put together to celebrate the Mac Pro, but giving it away for free is, to my mind, saying its dead, or deadish.


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Marcus Moore
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 6:36:24 pm

Agreed. Word processing has already become commoditized by GoogleDocs. iWork as a valued added option for users. Microsoft Office as the monopoly software is the only looser here. And the longer Redmond lets it remain barred from mobile platforms, the more irrelevant it will become.



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Craig Seeman
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 7:17:25 pm

[Marcus Moore] "Agreed. Word processing has already become commoditized by GoogleDocs. iWork as a valued added option for users. Microsoft Office as the monopoly software is the only looser here."

BTW I think Apple's motive is what I think might be a migration strategy. So I'll explain.
Apple's motive with FCPX is that it's Mac only. Avid has been cross platform. While PPro has been available on both as well up until the CC one would have to commit. It's now very easy to dump Apple entirely and move to Windows without a software repurchase.

With iWorks and iLife free on iOS (and probably most iOS users are on Windows computers) and now iWorks free as part of iCloud, it becomes much easier to Windows users to move to Macs.
To put it succinctly, Apple is using software and service either to facilitate migration or, otherwise, lock you into their ecosystem.

So I state the obvious... but I think Apple is expanding this approach.

[Marcus Moore] "And the longer Redmond lets it remain barred from mobile platforms, the more irrelevant it will become."

In typical Microsoft fashion their "Ah Ha" moment will be to make it freely available on Windows smartphones only.



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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 7:30:51 pm

[Chris Harlan] "I agree. iProducts are now their main course, and they are being threatened by some truly serious competition. They are giving away these overly-mature products that have little growth potential to combat share loss in the iWorld. "

What's more important? Biggest share, or biggest profit? We should probably ask Avid.

I don't know if Apple has ever wanted to build the most products, or have the biggest company, or most market share. Or am I just a nerd?


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Michael Phillips
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 7:36:06 pm

I don't think Wall Street likes any public company to not grow - I admit that expectations from analysts can be crazy when to comes to Apple's expectations, but to a certain extent they are victims of their own success. Also, any public company will take profit over number of seats unless there is a clear plan to monetize those seats over time (as seen with cloud based subscriptions, etc.).

Michael


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 7:55:24 pm

[Michael Phillips] "I don't think Wall Street likes any public company to not grow"

Is Apple not growing? What defines growing, profit or market share? Ideally, both? But if you were to choose one or the other? Apple keeps smashing records, having best quarters ever, blah blah blah, but the "analysts" still trash them, which in turn 'artificially' lowers or raises the stock price based on feelings.

It doesn't add up to me, but I am far from an expert in these matters, I can only speculate.


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Chris Harlan
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 10:51:22 pm

I'm not sure I understand were you are going, not that I disagree with what you say.. All I was trying to do is say why it makes sense to me that Apple would give away iWorks, but not give away FCP X.


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 11:32:05 pm

I guess I am trying to determine what "threatened" means. Threatened to a hugely inflated stock price, sure, but what does that mean if Apple is still making giant profit?

[Chris Harlan] "All I was trying to do is say why it makes sense to me that Apple would give away iWorks, but not give away FCP X."

I have a friend who just bought an iPad mini, and a MacBookPro.

He received $150 in iTunes giftcards (100 for the computer, 50 for the iPad mini).

MacMall currently has some wicked deals on the Retina MBP 15".

I could see resellers having deals that essentially subsidize an AppStore purchase (rather than iTunes).


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Craig Seeman
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 5:16:16 pm

[Michael Phillips] " I wouldn't be surprised to see FCPx free with the purchase of a new MacPro. Those without a new MacPro can still purchase at the $299 price."

I've thought this as well. There's been some debate elsewhere on the interwebs on paid vs free update on the big one coming. One concern is that there are those who did purchase it, really made a valiant effort to use it and found it fell a little bit short on some features. I suspect there'd be a backlash from that subgroup who finally see what they want but have to purchase again. Just to be clear these are neither naysayers who wont purchase anyway or, current heavy users who've made back the cost (likely on the first job).. This group are those that are willing to like it and probably will with this update. I don't think Apple can afford the backlash from this group.

Apple's goal (IMHO) is hardware sales. Keeping in mind that iLife had always been free to new computer purchases but paid for buying new versions on older computers, iWorks has always been paid but is now free on iOS and free on iCloud, I think it's at least a reasonable assumption that Apple might make FCPX free on the new MacPro. So those in the "almost" camp can get it free if the buy the new dongle err MacPro.

Obviously this is wildly speculative but just a possibility given where Apple seems to be moving with their utilities. Consider what some are guessing on the price (high) of the new MacPro, including FCPX would be a good incentive/give back from Apple. It seems like the right carrot to dangle.



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Andrew Kimery
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 6:24:59 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Apple's goal (IMHO) is hardware sales. Keeping in mind that iLife had always been free to new computer purchases but paid for buying new versions on older computers, iWorks has always been paid but is now free on iOS and free on iCloud, I think it's at least a reasonable assumption that Apple might make FCPX free on the new MacPro. So those in the "almost" camp can get it free if the buy the new dongle err MacPro."

Going back a little bit further iMovie, iDVD and iPhoto all used to be free downloads. On the consumer side Apple does have a history of giving away software (and/or services) to make their hardware more appealing compared to the competition but I would be surprised if they followed similar suit w/their higher end/pro products.

There is a 30-day trial for those interested in kicking X's tires and if you are someone that's ready, willing and waiting to drop a few grand on a MacPro Tube I can't see the $299 price point of X being the major sticking point. Of course I never would've guessed Blackmagic would be giving away versions of Resolve like party favors so WTF do I know?




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Craig Seeman
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 7:06:16 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "I would be surprised if they followed similar suit w/their higher end/pro products."

I think the market conditions given the initial very bad PR (rightfully in many respects), make this case a bit different.


[Andrew Kimery] "There is a 30-day trial for those interested in kicking X's tires and if you are someone that's ready, willing and waiting to drop a few grand on a MacPro Tube I can't see the $299 price point of X being the major sticking point. "

The PR issue is that some did buy it since it was worth exploring and ultimately decided there were still too many holes to be filled. It's that particular niche that will likely be most upset and most vocal about paying for something they wished would have happened within updates. Another round of bad PR vs $300 and the loss of potential MacPro sales may not be something Apple wants to suffer. It's not about Apple giving it "free" to everyone as an update but offering, If you really like what you see know, upgrade your computer to a MacPro and you'll get FCPX. Basically it's converting the "maybes" to MacPro sales. Just to be clear I'm specifically tying to to MacPro sales not all Mac sales. Free with MacPro purchase only.


[Andrew Kimery] "Of course I never would've guessed Blackmagic would be giving away versions of Resolve like party favors so WTF do I know?"

A good reason for me to speculate Apple might just include FCPX with MacPro.



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Marcus Moore
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 7:24:20 pm

While I think there's great synergy and there'll be a wonderful performance boost to FCPX (or any beefy application) on the new MacPro- I continue to think people are making TOO much of the connection.

After all- a vast majority of people who would be running "10.1" will likely be doing it on anything else than a MacPro. Whether they don't need that Horsepower, or it's too expensive, or their work requires portability, or they're still mid-cyle on hardware... for any and all of these reasons I'd be surprised if 5% of the FCPX user base was using a MacPro by this time next year.

IF Apple were to offer 10.1 for free- I think it would come from a PR perspective. It would be VERY weird. And it would be a one-time "please give us another go" release.

But that said I still doubt it.



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Andrew Kimery
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 3:15:19 am

[Craig Seeman] "I think the market conditions given the initial very bad PR (rightfully in many respects), make this case a bit different."


I think if someone is still so pissed about the release that they won't even look at X then getting a free copy isn't going to change their mind. For those that are curious about X there is the 30-day trial and for those really curious about X $299 isn't that much (especially if the same person is going to pick up a new Mac Pro).




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Craig Seeman
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 3:25:24 am

[Andrew Kimery] "I think if someone is still so pissed about the release that they won't even look at X then getting a free copy isn't going to change their mind."

No but they don't need a NEW problem.

[Andrew Kimery] "For those that are curious about X there is the 30-day trial"

There are those who bought it to do some serious work and were disappointed. They liked it enough to buy it or were willing to spend well beyond 30 days to give it some real testing. They waited for some holes to be filled... and they may be angry that they have to pay for that now. It'll be an additional class of people who bought it and found they had to wait for things only to find the wait means another purchase. I suspect there's a very large number of people in this category.



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Andrew Kimery
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 4:17:18 am

[Craig Seeman] "No but they don't need a NEW problem."

I don't follow, what new problem would Apple be creating?


[Craig Seeman] "There are those who bought it to do some serious work and were disappointed. They liked it enough to buy it or were willing to spend well beyond 30 days to give it some real testing. They waited for some holes to be filled... and they may be angry that they have to pay for that now. It'll be an additional class of people who bought it and found they had to wait for things only to find the wait means another purchase. I suspect there's a very large number of people in this category."

Aren't people used to new versions of products coming out and those new products costing money? Not to mention Apple was offering refunds to unhappy customers. Maybe a free version of 10.1 to existing users (which would cover the "I bought it but I don't like it yet" users you mention) but I still don't see a compelling reason for Apple to do something unprecedented for them like offering a free version of FCPX w/any new Mac Pro purchase.

Going back to my Blackmagic reference, Blackmagic doesn't have the die-hard following that Apple has and they face stiff competition as new entrants into the sub-$10K so bundling Resolve w/their cameras makes sense. Conversely people have been begging Apple for a new Mac Pro for years and I feel like X is getting better every release and doing fine on it's own.




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Craig Seeman
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 12:04:00 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "Maybe a free version of 10.1 to existing users (which would cover the "I bought it but I don't like it yet" users you mention) but I still don't see a compelling reason for Apple to do something unprecedented for them like offering a free version of FCPX w/any new Mac Pro purchase."

Simply giving a free version to existing users... which would really be the current free upgrade path, doesn't make Apple any money.

Side note, if my understanding is correct, iWorks doesn't come pre-installed on new iOS devices. It still has to be downloaded. It least that's how I understand it from the new iPhone introduction. I think Apple still has motive to note proactive installations... unless I'm overlooking a legal or business aspect (remember IE browser on Windows) or I'm misunderstanding this entirely. In any case this is a further shift in how Apple is doing things and I think that shift may come to FCPX.

Given the alleged number of FCPX purchases (supposedly greater than FCP7) there may be a large pool of people who bought it but didn't make it their primary editor. Keep in mind that those who bought FCPX were those serious enough to move beyond the trial period and really wanted to work with it. These are likely serious editors who decided, due to some feature or workflow deficiency, that either PPro or Avid would be (or continue to be) their main axe. These are "prime marketing targets" to get them to reconsider FCPX with its new and improved feature set. The ultimate objective is to keep them tied to the Mac platform (Avid and PPRo give them a Windows exist strategy). So moving them to FCPX (or at least consider the New FCPX) with a MacPro (not out of the question for serious Avid or PPro users) can keep them on the Mac. All this also forestalls the potential outcry from the "I bought it and tried it and it wasn't ready so now you fixed it and want to charge me again" crowd. Given the number of FCPX purchases, I suspect that's a very large number who may make a very loud and abhorrent noise on the interwebs... something Apple should want to avoid.

IMHO Apple's recent moves are all about exit and migration strategies. Whether it's to make it easier for non Mac users to adopt iWorks (which is now free on Windows via iCloud) and move to Mac or to move the strongest editorial customer base, those who paid for FCPX but may have moved to Avid or PPro to stay with Mac.



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Oliver Peters
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 12:16:15 pm

This isn't an argument one way or another but merely some extra data points....

When FCP X EOL'ed "legacy" that also included FC Express. This had been the middle grown for advanvced amateurs and students between iMovie and FCP. FCP 7 wasn't a big seller, as many users stayed on FCP 6 for a variety of reasons. The bottom line is that FCP X probably quite easily has outsold FCP 7 numbers. The numbers to beat were low and the new potential market had expanded.

According to what I've read, based on Cisco research on server data traffic, the number one productivity package in enterprise use in iWorks - ahead of Google Docs, Neo Office, MS Office, etc. This is largely due to the penetration of the iPhone into the enterprise marketplace.

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Marcus Moore
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 1:30:21 pm

[Oliver Peters] "When FCP X EOL'ed "legacy" that also included FC Express. This had been the middle grown for advanvced amateurs and students between iMovie and FCP. FCP 7 wasn't a big seller, as many users stayed on FCP 6 for a variety of reasons. The bottom line is that FCP X probably quite easily has outsold FCP 7 numbers. The numbers to beat were low and the new potential market had expanded."

I agree- A lot of people didn't upgrade, or at the very least it took them a long time. I jumped right in- the iChat Theatre feature was the most valuable feature I could imagine. As a satellite freelancer, the ability to "share" my program monitor across iChat became an important part of my workflow for a while. I would love to see it back.

The point I wanted to make though is that while FCP7 may not have been the biggest seller, I believe that data point came from Philip Hodgetts in his sit-down at NAB2012. That would have been around 10 months after launch. We're now 28 months from the initial release, and if I take a quick look at the Mac appStore, FCPX is 15th on the top paid apps chart- so I think that while those numbers might be able to be downplayed on their own- they're well out of date and have likely been doubled, tripled (even quadrupled?) by this point. I'd love to hear some new numbers from Apple when 10.1 is released.



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Andrew Kimery
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 10:20:12 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Simply giving a free version to existing users... which would really be the current free upgrade path, doesn't make Apple any money."

Poor wording on my part. I meant free version to existing X users that buy a Tube.


[Craig Seeman] "All this also forestalls the potential outcry from the "I bought it and tried it and it wasn't ready so now you fixed it and want to charge me again" crowd."

How many people buy a product and expect upgrades for life at no cost? I guess I'd just be surprised if people in any significant numbers demanded a free upgrade for a product they bought, did not like and chose not to return for a full refund. That just seems totally nonsensical to me.




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Craig Seeman
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 10:50:00 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "How many people buy a product and expect upgrades for life at no cost?"

I'm taking into consideration what Apple has done with iLife and how they're now handling iWorks. The latter of which is a new path for that product line.

Apple does seem to be changing how they handle distribution of their own software with new purchases. It wouldn't surprise me if FCPX became another "variant" in that strategy specific to the MacPro. That would not be a free upgrade but free with hardware purchase. Following versions would be purchased just as its done with the "i" software.

[Andrew Kimery] "did not like and chose not to return for a full refund."

I think this category specifically bought because they invested more time and money then the 30 day trial period because they had significant interest. It's not simply "didn't like" because they went that far because they did like it enough to buy beyond the trial. And didn't ask for a refund precisely because they hoped a free update would get them the few things they felt it needed. IMHO this group is one of the key targets for the MacPro. Getting them to move from their other NLEs Avid and PPro which allow them to migrate to Windows, to find FCPX useful enough to purchase a MacPro... or actually purchase a MacPro and entice them into FCPX use so they don't leave the Mac platform.



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Oliver Peters
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 10:52:57 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Apple does seem to be changing how they handle distribution of their own software with new purchases. "

Apple has bundled software with new machines in the past, too. iLife, iWork, etc. So the strategy isn't new. It just depends on what is included and why.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Craig Seeman
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 11:04:19 pm

[Oliver Peters] "Apple has bundled software with new machines in the past, too. iLife, iWork, etc. So the strategy isn't new. It just depends on what is included and why."

What's been added is free iApps to iOS and iWorks via iCloud on Windows. Basically it's an expansion. I'm guessing that Apple might have a reason to do that with FCPX and MacPro. An interesting aspect is that it seems with iOS the iApps are NOT preinstalled but can be downloaded for free. One can speculate why they took that route specifically but I can imagine them doing the same with MacPro. FCPX not installed but can be downloaded.



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Oliver Peters
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 11:04:38 pm

Gold iPhone design video ;-)

http://teamcoco.com/video/conan-highlight-gold-iphone

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Craig Seeman
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 11:16:46 pm

Just wait until you see the diamond encrusted iWatch.



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Chris Harlan
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 13, 2013 at 6:46:07 am

pure gold!


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Andrew Kimery
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 11:44:07 pm

[Craig Seeman] " IMHO this group is one of the key targets for the MacPro. Getting them to move from their other NLEs Avid and PPro which allow them to migrate to Windows, to find FCPX useful enough to purchase a MacPro... or actually purchase a MacPro and entice them into FCPX use so they don't leave the Mac platform."

I don't really swim in FCPX circles so maybe I'm underestimating the size of this contingent. It still baffles me though that people would bust out pitch forks again because V.2 of a product is better than the V.1 version they bought. I rarely buy V.1 of anything (software, hardware, a car, etc.,) because I know there will issues that later revision will fix and I'd rather be patient and happy than first and frustrated. ;)




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Rick Lang
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 8:47:22 pm

Craig Seeman:
"Obviously this is wildly speculative but just a possibility given where Apple seems to be moving with their utilities. Consider what some are guessing on the price (high) of the new MacPro, including FCPX would be a good incentive/give back from Apple. It seems like the right carrot to dangle."

I don't expect the cost of the entry and mid-level Mac Pros to change from their current price, starting at $2,499 I believe. Apple has a history of keeping prices the same while enhancing the specs (or lowering them). Keeping the hardware price down is the best carrot to promote adoption of the much maligned new Mac Pro if one assumes they really do want to sell a lot of these.

The FCP X 10.0 user community is expecting that version 10.1 will be a paid version at $299. If Apple wanted to make a bigger splash with the upgrade to FCP X 10.1, they would just make it a free upgrade like all the other upgrades on the Mac App Store. I don't know how they would do it in the Mac App Store, but they may have a way to knock $100 off the price if a person ordered FCP X with their Mac Pro purchase as they used to do with software items bundled at the time of a computer purchase and pre-installed by Apple.

Occasionally Apple is generous, but I don't see them giving away a free copy. The path DaVinci Resolve has taken could always be an option: free forever with a few key omissions such as only good for HD deliverables and some key elements omitted. However that wouldn't fly well since the Mac Pro is being touted as a 4K video machine.

Rick Lang

iMac 27” 2.8GHz i7 16GB


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Craig Seeman
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 11, 2013 at 9:03:02 pm

[Rick Lang] "I don't expect the cost of the entry and mid-level Mac Pros to change from their current price, starting at $2,499 I believe."

MacBookPro Retina is certainly more expensive that the MacBookPro. So much so that they kept the MBP around. I think it's possible that the bottom to top price range of the MacPro "Tube" may be a jump up in price. I wouldn't be surprised if the bottom price were in the $3000-$3500 range.

[Rick Lang] "If Apple wanted to make a bigger splash with the upgrade to FCP X 10.1, they would just make it a free upgrade like all the other upgrades on the Mac App Store."

But that wouldn't be quite the incentive to get a MacPro though as making it free on that box. My sentiment though is based on that the new MP will be more expensive and they may want to offset that.
Again not free on all systems but specifically on MP purchases.



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Bill Davis
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 2:36:12 am

I just can't see the "gift with purchase" thing.

The reason is that the class of "pro video editors" is such a small subset of the overall class of those who would be interested in the new MacPros.

Unless it's $10k plus (please, NO!) there's a MASSIVE group of users who will buy the R2DX, From well-heeled dentists who want to run their dental practices off a cute little box and figure out they can tie it to their office plasma screens to display custom crap (something they will be excited about for a few months, then probably turn those screens right back to daytime TV!) right through legitimate business professionals in all manner of fields who just want to string a bunch of 4k monitors in a row to impress their clients! (wow, Bob, those live updating spreadsheets look AMAZING!)

As everyone here knows, actual video editing beyond the "cut the crap out of my kids little league game" is difficult and arduous work. Operating X, heck, even LEARNING how to use X competently takes a good bit of time and effort. Sure it's quick and easy to teach someone to keyword and do basic cutting for selects reels like the team in Sam Mestman's article, but to edit whole programs with grace is NOT so easy.

So for Apple to put a tool designed for high level precision videomaking in every box just doesn't make sense to me.

X on a R2DX is like buying a piano. Nobody thinks that everyone needs a Steinway. And giving people one with a big purchase like maybe a house is silly. The percentage of people who have a clue what to actually do with it is extremely small.

And just like the piano thing, there are different kinds of players who play for different reasons. Some people just enjoying playing for friends and family. Others play for their local school choir. Some play in local nightclubs. Some play as accompanists for soloists. And yep, some are bona fide concert performers.

So there are LOTS of categories where people will buy and use FCP-X on the new MacPro.

But don't think for a second that just because most of us who hang here "play for a living" - that means that the R2DX is JUST a concert players tool.

It's not.

FWIW.

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


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Michael Phillips
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 1:27:34 pm

Interesting to see where this conversation has gone! But I don't think that Apple cares about revenue from the software apps as they position themselves as the Apple experience when buying an Apple iOS device (with new system only). There could be many reasons why they chose to do that, and one of them may be that sales of new devices in a crowded market needed more than just a device to differentiate. Currently, there are ~600 million iOS devices in the world (best estimate found). Buying the 5 apps today is a total of $40. That's a $24B total addressable market. Other guesstimates and polls say that ~40% of existing users will upgrade. So if it was about revenue from software, they are leaving a potential $9.6B on the table. Even a 10% penetration into that is close to $1B revenue.

So I am only having fun at trying to second guess Apple which we all know is almost impossible. But based on precedence of having done it for a market that is hundreds of times bigger than niche pro video markets, why would the revenue of software apps matter there?

On the other hand, they could very well take the position of "if they can afford a new MacPro, then they can afford half a grand for the "pro" apps. But let's play with some numbers here too - let's say there are 1M pro editors in the world and they spend $500 for all the pro apps. That's $500M revenue - compared to the estimated $9.6B that is nothing. Even the 10% penetration is 2x revenue. But the marketing and goodness around getting a new MacPro and "that's all you'll ever need" message for video (even up to 4K!) and audio creation might be a tempting thing to do. They did it with the 80% off add a few years ago and are doing a subtle version of that with the new iPhone camera showing the camera bad, lenses, light meter, Macbeth chart, etc.

These conversations are really better served with a few rounds of beer. I also reserve the right to have all my numbers and calculations wrong, but something has to be put down on the table in order for a discussion to happen. :)


Michael


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Marcus Moore
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 1:44:16 pm

At this point I'll just be happy when 10.1 is out.

Not just for whatever features and improvements it might bring, but so that these "will they, won't they" paid upgrade debates can be done with. It's a replay of the MacPro discussions all over again. The were sort of fun in the abstract- but it's been a conversation that's been going on for around a year and a half!

Thankfully I think we're getting close to this all being decided. 5-8 weeks on the outside is my guess.



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Craig Seeman
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 1:58:13 pm

[Marcus Moore] "Not just for whatever features and improvements it might bring, but so that these "will they, won't they" paid upgrade debates can be done with."

Which will be followed by a few weeks of "why did they change that?" and "a year and it still doesn't do..." and then there will be "it really seems like they're giving up on Motion and Compressor."



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Marcus Moore
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 5:49:14 pm

True enough- though at least we'll be arguing about stuff as it is, vs how it might be.

I will be really interested to see if the upcoming FCPX update is accompanied by updates to Motion and Compressor. If there is any larger plan for interoperability- it would surely make sense that Motion gets a small update- but I'm hoping for more. I'd really like to ditch my dependancy on AE for 3D motion tracking; it's pretty much all I use it for now. That said, I'll just be happy when MotionVFX releases their mExtrude (now likely m3D) plugin. I cannot wait for that. Very much a Element3D for Motion.



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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 5:11:04 pm

[Marcus Moore] "At this point I'll just be happy when 10.1 is out."

Seriously. I need a Proof of Life.


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Marcus Moore
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 5:50:13 pm

Not long now- I'd bet money it will get released before the end of October.



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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 7:34:50 pm

[Marcus Moore] "I'd bet money it will get released before the end of October."

How much? ;-D


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Michael Phillips
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 7:36:39 pm

My "guess" is when Mavericks ships.

Michael


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Marcus Moore
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 11:41:16 pm

I can't even remember where I said this- but based on last year, here's what I figure:

Apple releases Mavericks a day or two after their Quarterly earnings call mid-October (they did this last year) so that...

A week or so later on October 22nd, at an iPad/Mac/seemingly aTV Event- they can say how many times it's been downloaded in the past week at whatever they price it at ($19.99 again? $9.99? FREE?). Audience cheers!

At some point during this Event (which could contain 4K Cinema Displays-where we get a quick peek at FCPX) additional details on the release of the MacPro are given; maybe not even pricing, but availability for sale or pre-order- which co-incides with....

FCPX 10.1 popping up in the Mac appStore that same day (like 10.0.6 did last year).


I think in a perfect world that's how it will work. Maybe the MacPro isn't ready to ship until Nov, but that won't stop them from releasing 10.1 IF it's ready.



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Craig Seeman
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 12, 2013 at 2:08:30 pm

But Bill, editing is the new language and many of today's "professionals" may not be a full time editor so much as someone who wears a few hats on the job, one of which includes editing. So that dentist may well have someone in the office editing their own web advertising or local cable spots that they just shot on their Blackmagic Pocket Cinema Camera. Sure they don't actually need a new MacPro for that but you just described a whole bunch of reasons why those people might get one anyway.

Even if one argues that only a few FCPX editors will buy a MacPro one might say everyone who does buy a MacPro is an FCPX editor even if that's not their full time profession. I'd argue that the MacPro is for professionals who edit rather than simply editing professionals. Including it free on the MacPro specifically will ensure they have no way to migrate.



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Bill Davis
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 13, 2013 at 4:11:32 am

[Marcus Moore] "At WWDC, Apple announced a web-based iWork- so even if you're a PC user at home, you can use iWork across your iOS and Windows PC for nothing- while Microsoft is now looking for an ongoing subscription price for Office365."

How many people will join me gleefully dancing around a bonfire if this causes PowerPoint to go go away in my lifetime!

Oh, the bliss would be so PROFOUND!

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


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Michael Phillips
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 23, 2013 at 2:04:23 pm

So - dredging up this old thread based on real numbers from over the weekend. 9 million devices sold. In giving away iWorks on those devices, they left a total of $360M on the table. Now of course, 100% of the iOS owners would not have bought all the components of the suite, so that would be the total addressable market from over the weekend (and sure to get higher).

If Apple is willing to leave a potential of $360M on the table, we can have fun and apply that to FCPx which would be just over 900K units. Let's round that up to 1M units. I still say I wouldn't be surprised for them to bundle FCPx, even if for a limited time, with the New MacPro for the "pro-video" space. I am not counting imaging and other processor intensive markets. Even with Logic X, Compressor and Motion thrown in for a total of $700 - I still would not be surprised. Assuming $360M give-away as "marketing"... that would still be over 500K units for the video pro in this segment. Which sounds about right for the higher end video users, as many folks may well be very well served by the iMac.

Just having some fun.


Michael


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 23, 2013 at 3:09:50 pm

I don't think they will limit themselves to fcpx giveaways.

They could offer money to the AppStore which a user can choose to spend on fcpx, or sync and link, or Lightroom, or aperture, or Logic X, or anything they want. The MacPro is not just for video editors.

A buddy of mine received $150 in iTunes gift cards for getting a MacBook Pro and iPad mini.

Perhaps a MacPro will have a little more juice attached to it, who knows.

It doesn't really matter; sold hardware.


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Michael Phillips
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 23, 2013 at 3:45:17 pm

My point exactly, FCPx as loss leader for the video side of things, they could give away any software they develop for any of the markets served. I am only looking at the video market for these boards. I don't see them giving free iTunes bucks for other apps, but it might be possible.

Michael


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: Apple's Annoucements
on Sep 23, 2013 at 5:41:22 pm

[Michael Phillips] "I don't see them giving free iTunes bucks for other apps, but it might be possible. "

They are already doing it for other hardware, I don't see why they would stop for the MacPro.

My point is, it's already being done.


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