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Interesting Take at Motley Fool

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james carey
Interesting Take at Motley Fool
on Jun 24, 2011 at 9:54:09 pm

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/06/24/apples-misstep-opens-the-d...

Time to buy stock in Avid?

Jim Carey
Director of Video, Radical Entertainment
linkedin: http://ca.linkedin.com/in/jcarey256
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Greg Burke
Re: Interesting Take at Motley Fool
on Jun 24, 2011 at 11:19:12 pm

I know right...Man what a let down

I wear many hats.
http://www.gregburkepost.com


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Tim Wilson
Re: Interesting Take at Motley Fool
on Jun 25, 2011 at 3:47:11 pm

Of course, the same writer said just last month that the A in Avid stands for AVOID. That kind of swing in a month is exactly what will hose you as a stock investor. Look at the long term: profit, loss, confidence.

For example, MSFT is consistently doubling both revenue and profit: stock flat over 10 years. Avid's profit up 54%, trading between 11 and 18 -- with record years while the stock was in that range - so another example where confidence is an issue.

I still like their products a lot (disclosure: used to work there), and think Media Composer should be on your list of options alongside Premiere...each will be better for some folks...and you can certainly buy both for under $2K total...but stock?

It kills me that the Fool analyst was writing off Avid because they didn't respond to FCP in a timely fashion (better advice in 2002 than 2011, when they ARE making sound responses) and that they'd priced themselves out of the edu game -- when you can buy Media Composer for $299 and FCS for $799. This has been true since at least 2003.

Of course it was Avid Xpress back then, but still, you could just as easily (and wrongly) argue that Apple has finally responded to the price pressure of Avid, waiting until 2011 to meet the price that Avid has held for 8 years! Please. This guy simply doesn't have his facts straight.

Betting against Apple as a STOCK is a mug's game. Even while it has flattened at well over $200, you could look at fundamentals and argue that it's undervalued.

General advice: avoid stocks. :-) Or avoid thinking that these short-term issues will affect long-term value.

And certainly avoid using stock price to evaluate the worth of products to you.

Fun to talk about though. :-)


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Chris Conlee
Re: Interesting Take at Motley Fool
on Jun 26, 2011 at 6:24:11 am

Ahhh, THE Tim Wilson from Avid. I remember you. I think we met in Los Angeles in about 2006 talking about P2 workflow issues?

Chris Conlee


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Tim Wilson
Re: Interesting Take at Motley Fool
on Jun 26, 2011 at 10:53:00 am

As I mentioned parenthetically, I did indeed leave Avid in 2006, when I came to the COW...and ironically, among the reasons Avid hired me was my Final Cut Pro expertise...which I haven't looked at since I left Avid. :-)

My roots at Apple go back to 1979, when my father became the manager of Apple's first manufacturing facility in Carrolton, TX. (Yes, Apple used to manufacture in the US.) He eventually moved to Cupertino to become a director of operations. When the Mac rolled out in 1984, my father stood on the stage to introduce Steve. A couple of years later (1985? I forget) my brother-in-law started as a product manager, and worked there for 13 years, give or take. By the time he left, he was reporting directly to Steve.

I'm still an Apple fan, but since I haven't actually edited for a living since 2001, have just been watching this whole thing through the eyes of COWs.

It would not surprise me at all if we met in LA, as I spent a ton of time there....but it would surprise me if I said anything to say besides, "Sorry bro, I don't know anything about P2." :-)

Tim


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