FORUMS: list search recent posts

Apples poor performance

COW Forums : Apple Final Cut Pro X Debates

<< PREVIOUS   •   VIEW ALL   •   PRINT   •   NEXT >>
Gary Hazen
Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 3:38:49 pm

This one is for Craig.

Given that you have a very keen interest every time Avid's share price or quartly earnings have the slightest hiccup. I was curious if you have any commentary on the latest financial forecast regarding Apple.

This of course is in the interest of being "Fair and Balanced" as Fox News might say.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/apple-again-disappoints-with-earnings-miss-we...


Return to posts index

Walter Soyka
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 3:51:19 pm

The bad news here? Their fourth-quarter profits were only up 24% YoY. Not quite the same scenario as Avid.

With respect to products, I've said that Apple has trapped themselves in an innovation bubble. They've hyped their innovations so heavily that now we want every single product release will be amazing, ground-breaking, and utterly transformative. They are now punished for simply releasing good products that do what people want. If Apple fails to knock our collective socks off, then the market says they fail, period, no matter how fundamentally good the product is. (iPhone 5?)

I guess it's really an expectations bubble that applies to their stock as well.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


Return to posts index

Rick Lang
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 5:24:09 pm

Walter:
"...now we want every single product release will be amazing, ground-breaking, and utterly transformative."

Great description of the Mac Pro to be released in another year. I think it especially deserves that treatment.

But I agree the analysts are the most influential about what happens and they never seem happy since Tim Cook took over as CEO. However the stock seems to continue to recover as the consumers respond each time to the incrementally improved products. Speaking of hype, it seems to me Apple is shy to get into the details of improvements they do make. One example is the new screen on the iPad mini--it's new and improved technology and I don't think Apple mentioned it. They did mention the 5mm thick edge on the iMac but that's obvious and also really not important at all to anyone (compared to dropping the optical drive--Apple is wrong to never point out what major features no longer are included). Of course Apple wants to stay away from technical features that might just confuse grandma and grandpa who just want something that looks pretty and "just works." But grandma and grandpa likely own Apple stock and the youth market they pursue doesn't. Apple wants to avoid a features war they'll lose with PC makers of cheap but feature-laden products. Then once in a while they do bring an astounding feature to the fore such as Thunderbolt. They'll do it again, perhaps it will be the 100Gbps optical TB the Mac Pro will support in 2013. And the stock will rise again.

Rick Lang

iMac 27” 2.8GHz i7 16GB


Return to posts index


Sandeep Sajeev
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 5:51:18 pm

I'd say their ability to innovate when it comes to Manufacturing and Engineering continues apace. But the visionary product, whether they're able to continue knocking these out, that's the question. The last new product was what the IPad? And we're 4 generations into that life cycle now.

I'd be shocked if there was anything visionary about the new MacPro. They sell a small number of them per year, and R&D probably reflects that.


Return to posts index

Rick Lang
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 6:11:24 pm

True, visionary gets harder to do when you have so many products to update continually. Case in point is their hobby, Apple TV. It's taken so long and become so difficult as the big media companies fear Apple and are playing hardball, that one wonders if anything will come to fruition let alone something that's visionary. The big TV manufacturers are doing their best to emulate what vision they think Apple has for TV.

And I don't know if Apple has drawn more engineers into the Mac Pro team or taken them away to work on something else. But the issues of the neglected professional creative community have got Tim Cook's attention and commitment to do something in 2013. Quite a challenge but I think Apple won't put any energy into fighting the Promax and those PC powerhouses. I think they'll once again try to skate to where the puck is going. Any intelligent and thoughtful group (like we hace here) could bat around some ideas but I'm afraid to suggest anything concrete now or it might evaporate like the Apple TV as everyone moves to the open ice. There's room for hardware/software/storage/network game-changing innovation but let's hope Apple shares that desire too to think differently.

Rick Lang

iMac 27” 2.8GHz i7 16GB


Return to posts index

Craig Seeman
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 6:34:45 pm

It may depend what one defines as visionary.

We won't know until it happens regarding the MacPro replacement but I'd suspect Apple will be first to market with a Xeon based computer with Thunderbolt.

As to Pros, I still contend Thunderbolt is in the domain of Pros and while there's a PC laptop here 'n there with it, it's not being heavily promoted (ore even built) on that side.

I'd say the ability to use one's Pegasus RAID, Ultra Studio 3D, Sonnet Echo chassis on every computer in the lineup so that a "Pro" will have universal utilization and accessibility, "visionary"

For the Mac Pro replacement "visionary" will mean a design that will significantly increase sales with a far more versatile box for those that need Xeon and GPU power with expandability.

Of course one wonders about "the next big thing" and whether Apple can do that again but the nature of the "visionary" thing is that it's hard to anticipate until it happens.



Return to posts index


Walter Soyka
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 7:21:38 pm

[Rick Lang] "Quite a challenge but I think Apple won't put any energy into fighting the Promax and those PC powerhouses. I think they'll once again try to skate to where the puck is going."

This metaphor always misses the fact that the puck moves continuously from where it is now to where it will be...

I think that the four defining characteristics of a workstation are performance, balance, reliability, and expansion capacity.

I'd be very interested in hearing other opinions on what separates a workstation from a desktop computer, and how Apple has room in those definitions for disruptive innovation that others are not pursuing.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


Return to posts index

Chris Harlan
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 7:38:51 pm

[Walter Soyka] "This metaphor always misses the fact that the puck moves continuously from where it is now to where it will be...
"


Thank you. Its a laugh, ain't it? If you are only ever skating to where the puck is going--as opposed to where it is--you will never ever see the puck, and since the goal is to hit the puck, perpetually skating to where you expect the puck to be, will never get you to that goal.

In reality, Apple is sitting right on top of the puck, and fervently guarding it with all its might.


Return to posts index

Bill Davis
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 7:46:59 pm

[Chris Harlan] "Thank you. Its a laugh, ain't it? If you are only ever skating to where the puck is going--as opposed to where it is--you will never ever see the puck, and since the goal is to hit the puck, perpetually skating to where you expect the puck to be, will never get you to that goal.

In reality, Apple is sitting right on top of the puck, and fervently guarding it with all its might."


Nope.

Everyone on the ice comes sharing a fundamental truth.

The whole point of the game is to score.

Skating to where the puck will be is a sensible strategy articulated by the games greatest player because he understood game deeply. Defense is a conservative tactic to prevent loss. Period. Positioning yourself to take advantage of those moments where opportunities arise is always a required strategy to win.

Because it's impossible to win with a score of zero.

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


Return to posts index


Chris Harlan
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 8:03:42 pm

[Bill Davis] "Nope. "

Yup. Sorry, Bill. Its a silly, pretentious metaphor with only a hair-width's more value than "Buy low, sell high." Oh course people want to be where the market is going to be. Duh.


Return to posts index

Bill Davis
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 8:07:59 pm

[Chris Harlan] "Bill. Its a silly, pretentious metaphor with only a hair-width's more value than "Buy low, sell high." "

Yeah, its certainly a shame that by internalizing a bit of it's gestalt, Jobs couldn't get more traction in the business world...

Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com - video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.


Return to posts index

Chris Harlan
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 8:44:09 pm

[Bill Davis] "Yeah, its certainly a shame that by internalizing a bit of it's gestalt, Jobs couldn't get more traction in the business world...
"


I have know idea what that means. Do you? It DOES sound impressive, but it doesn't make much sense. What does "it" refer to? The business world? Or the phrase "skating to where the puck is going to be?" I assume by "gestalt" you mean something like "wholeness" and aren't referring to the therapy. Of course, you are being ironic about Jobs not getting traction, but how, in anyway, is this irony relevant to Job's fondness for Gretzky quote that is nowhere near as deep as it sounds, but makes a good soundbite for a sales pitch. I don't see how one has anything to do with the other.


Return to posts index


Herb Sevush
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 8:09:07 pm

[Bill Davis] "The whole point of the game is to score."

No, the point of the game is to score more than your opponent, big difference. Winning 1-0 is a lot better than losing 10-9.

[Bill Davis] "Defense is a conservative tactic to prevent loss. Period. "

Wrong again, at least in sports like hockey, football and basketball where defense creates offense in the form of turn overs and fast breaks. In those sports, to invert a phrase, the best offense is a great defense. In baseball it's true that the defense can't score runs, but then again it's a pretty unique game.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


Return to posts index

Walter Soyka
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 8:12:55 pm

[Bill Davis] "Skating to where the puck will be is a sensible strategy articulated by the games greatest player because he understood game deeply."

There were four other people on the team actively trying to put the puck to where Gretzky would be. Throw in the goalie, too, when the puck comes his way.

The point of the aphorism is to think ahead. The point of my critique is to remind forward-thinkers that we all must somehow get from here to there -- so there's risk in thinking too far ahead, and there's risk in falling too far behind while you're working on the future.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


Return to posts index

Chris Harlan
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 8:46:14 pm

[Walter Soyka] "The point of the aphorism is to think ahead. The point of my critique is to remind forward-thinkers that we all must somehow get from here to there -- so there's risk in thinking too far ahead, and there's risk in falling too far behind while you're working on the future."

Dang, Walter. You can turn a phrase.


Return to posts index


Rick Lang
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 8:04:00 pm

[Walter Soyka] "I think that the four defining characteristics of a workstation are performance, balance, reliability, and expansion capacity. "

Not sure what you mean by balance but I think utility (suitability to the tasks needed) is on the list. Off the top of my head:

Would it be disruptive to have Apple completely abandon the 8-bit graphics world they've clung to for so long and offer only 10bit and 12bit colour everywhere in hardware and software? And integrate with 3rd party or their own 10/12bit calibrated monitors produced by, say, Panasonic (no longer distracted by TVs) and Sharp for Apple? Too bad they didn't begin with the 2012 27" iMac but maybe in 2013/2014 after introduced by the next Mac Pro. And if they added scopes to the monitors?

Would it be disruptive for Apple to get ahead of the curve with 100Gbps optical Thunderbolt while others are still thinking if they should add 10Gbps copper Thunderbolt? Think that would make a difference in how everything interfaces and what can be done linking your components. But they need to take a greater role in ensuring there are things to connect to it, like they did with the Promise Pegasus RAIDs with 10Gbps TB.

Would it be disruptive if they reinvented the SSD in some fundamental way that addresses their current limitations for high-end use? Working with, say IBM or Sandisk, on new nano circuits (a way to make single-cell inexpensive?), new architectures, new intelligence/processors, to ensure huge densities with reliability and dependable speed across the unit whether new or well-used, in burst mode or streaming.

The biggest disruption I can think of doesn't have a solution yet so not expecting that in 2013 of course, but it relates to how things are connected. We've had versions of hardware based implementations of increasing fast PCI interfaces for many years. Would it be disruptive if all that hardware, pins, logic was replaced by something else? If I was a young engineer, I'd be setting a goal to do this much differently, perhaps the ultimate triumph would be to do it wirelessly using spectrum that doesn't exist today in communications and is harmless to life and can't travel more than a few metres before its unintelligible (so Google can't snoop it as they drive by) but I don't know how to implement it or I'd be at MIT.

Well that was fun... you get the gist of how visionary either enhances something that exists beyond what is expected or bravely replaces what exists entirely.

Rick Lang

iMac 27” 2.8GHz i7 16GB


Return to posts index

Walter Soyka
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 8:55:51 pm

[Rick Lang] "Not sure what you mean by balance"

A balanced system does not bottleneck. If any single subsystem (CPU, memory, graphics, storage) is faster than the others, it is wasted. If any single subsystem is slower than the others, it wastes them.


[Rick Lang] "I think utility (suitability to the tasks needed) is on the list."

But doesn't utility vary? My workstation is really good for 3D renders, but really lousy for portability. So I have a laptop that's really good for portability, but really lousy for 3D renders. I have to make different compromises for different use cases.


[Rick Lang] "Would it be disruptive to have Apple completely abandon the 8-bit graphics world they've clung to for so long and offer only 10bit and 12bit colour everywhere in hardware and software?"

No. You can get this today. Windows 7 has supported 48-bit color (16bpc) since 2008.


[Rick Lang] "Would it be disruptive for Apple to get ahead of the curve with 100Gbps optical Thunderbolt while others are still thinking if they should add 10Gbps copper Thunderbolt? Think that would make a difference in how everything interfaces and what can be done linking your components. But they need to take a greater role in ensuring there are things to connect to it, like they did with the Promise Pegasus RAIDs with 10Gbps TB."

Maybe in markets where portability matters. However, remember that Thunderbolt encapsulates PCIe. Every Thunderbolt advance is underpinned by a PCIe advance. Thunderbolt makes it easy and external, but is this really disruptive in traditional workstation markets who don't mind internal expansion?

Besides, Thunderbolt is not an Intel technology. Apple would need another period of exclusivity to have an advantage here.


[Rick Lang] "Would it be disruptive if they reinvented the SSD in some fundamental way that addresses their current limitations for high-end use? Working with, say IBM or Sandisk, on new nano circuits (a way to make single-cell inexpensive?), new architectures, new intelligence/processors, to ensure huge densities with reliability and dependable speed across the unit whether new or well-used, in burst mode or streaming."

Yes. But Apple currently relies on the storage advancements of other firms, while they focus on engineering and manufacturing advancements.

Apple innovates like Walmart: the bulk of their innovation is totally invisible to the user, but provides the brand with their signature: cool usability for Apple, low prices for Walmart.


[Rick Lang] "The biggest disruption I can think of doesn't have a solution yet so not expecting that in 2013 of course, but it relates to how things are connected. We've had versions of hardware based implementations of increasing fast PCI interfaces for many years. Would it be disruptive if all that hardware, pins, logic was replaced by something else? If I was a young engineer, I'd be setting a goal to do this much differently, perhaps the ultimate triumph would be to do it wirelessly using spectrum that doesn't exist today in communications and is harmless to life and can't travel more than a few metres before its unintelligible (so Google can't snoop it as they drive by) but I don't know how to implement it or I'd be at MIT."

This would be very cool -- but it would need to show benefit. It has to let me do something I couldn't do before, or it has to let me do something I'm doing today faster. Things like convenience and size are trumped in this market niche by power and speed.

It also has to have broad support. If you only use Apple products, then it's fine if Apple surprises you with a new technology. As soon as you add anything non-Apple to the mix, then it's irrelevant unless they sacrifice their proprietary advantage and open up the technology.

I am not saying that Apple isn't innovative -- they are. I am not saying that the workstation market couldn't use some innovation -- it could. I am saying that the goals of performance computing haven't changed much in forty years. I am saying that open standards have value. I am saying that I think the primary innovations in this space will continue to come from pure hardware developers like Intel, NVIDIA, and Samsung, and less so from more hardware integrators like Apple, HP, or Dell.

I don't mean to come across so argumentatively, but I think I hold a different view on what's important in a workstation than most folks here, and I think that different perspective drives our disagreements. I'd be curious to see if we're on the same page about the past and present before we discuss our views on the future.

What would you say were the last few disruptive innovations that have occurred in the workstation market?

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


Return to posts index

Rick Lang
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 9:11:49 pm

Pardon my stumble on the lack of knowledge ragarding 48bit graphics used with Windows! Back to the drawing board on that...

You're not argumentative, you're brilliant and enjoy a good discussion.

I need to run but the biggest innovation in workstations in the last decade or so has been their democratization. By that I mean generally lowering the entry point so that no longer are they the domain of a few universities as computing began and no longer a niche product requiring a mortgage on your home to equip your business (if we're talking one workstation), with software that used to cost another mortgage and now is a year's tuition at a junior college or even free (with limitations). It's amazing how price and performance go in opposite directions and will continue to do so as the target audience widens. I think the high-end workstation technology of yesterday has become standard on an iPad or a phone. And what is targeted at the professional creative tomorrow will often impact the low end the day after tomorrow. That's why it's important that Apple remember the vision to serve the scientific and creative community: everyone benefits.

Rick Lang

iMac 27” 2.8GHz i7 16GB


Return to posts index


Walter Soyka
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 9:19:27 pm

Wow, many thanks for the compliment, Rick.

I do agree that improving performance/cost ratio has been a (probably the) defining trend in computing since the dawn of the PC era (and likely before, but that's well outside my personal familiarity) -- but I don't see it as disruptive.

(I also think that trend is about to reverse in some markets, giving us a V-shaped graph, but that's perhaps a conversation for another time...)

Have a good weekend, and maybe we can pick this thread back up sometime next week.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


Return to posts index

John Davidson
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 6:28:45 pm

This happens to varying degrees with any new Apple product launch or quarterly earnings. I think what happens is that many 'analysts' game the system by over-inflating their expectations so that they can report negatively on Apple, which leads to stock prices decreasing temporarily (and giving those same analysts a temporary discounted price to purchase more of the stock). I can't find the link, but Jim Cramer talked about this a good bit about 4 years ago.

There's a whole industry designed around pushing Apple down, reporting negatively on Apple for website web page views, etc. This industry continues because despite their best efforts, Apple long term continues to rise.

I just wish I had gotten in Apple two or three years ago when it was $80. Sigh.

John Davidson | President / Creative Director | Magic Feather Inc.


Return to posts index

Jeremy Garchow
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 27, 2012 at 4:14:02 am

[John Davidson] "This happens to varying degrees with any new Apple product launch or quarterly earnings. I think what happens is that many 'analysts' game the system by over-inflating their expectations so that they can report negatively on Apple, which leads to stock prices decreasing temporarily (and giving those same analysts a temporary discounted price to purchase more of the stock). I can't find the link, but Jim Cramer talked about this a good bit about 4 years ago."

This right here.

Last time one of these reports came out (so I guess it was last quarter), it was the best third quarter Apple had ever had in the history of ever. Not the best quarter ever but the best they had ever done during that quarter.

It was talked about in the press as a miss because it didn't meet "expectations".

And we wonder why there's global financial crises.

It's truly a dog and pony show. I hate it.


Return to posts index

Chris Harlan
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 27, 2012 at 5:58:18 am

[Jeremy Garchow] "It's truly a dog and pony show. I hate it.
"


I agree, but I thinks its more of a dog eat pony show.


Return to posts index

Craig Seeman
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 26, 2012 at 6:41:44 pm

[Gary Hazen] "Given that you have a very keen interest every time Avid's share price or quartly earnings have the slightest hiccup. I was curious if you have any commentary on the latest financial forecast regarding Apple."

Apple burps money while Avid gags. Some hiccup!
Apple's "off" when they make a fortune.
The best Avid can hope for it seems is a cheer if they don't lose quite as badly as the previous year and they can't even get to that point.



Return to posts index

Chris Kenny
Re: Apples poor performance
on Oct 27, 2012 at 5:00:11 am

[Gary Hazen] "Given that you have a very keen interest every time Avid's share price or quartly earnings have the slightest hiccup. I was curious if you have any commentary on the latest financial forecast regarding Apple.

This of course is in the interest of being "Fair and Balanced" as Fox News might say."


Meh. AAPL is still up 49% since January 1, the company's profits are ludicrously huge, and their revenue now outstrips that of Google and Microsoft combined. Looked at another way, with Avid's revenue of $127M in Q3, Apple literally takes in as much money about every nine hours as Avid does in an entire quarter. A 23% y/y reduction in revenue for Avid is hugely worrying — it's the sort of trajectory that means there might not be a viable business here in a few years. In that eventuality someone would certainly buy its more profitable assets, but a) I don't think we really know if Media Composer is one of these and b) software that gets acquired from failing companies by companies without significant previous experience in the same market (which is what would likely happen here) tends to fair quite poorly.

In other words, Avid's financial underperformance poses a serious risk to users who are heavily invested in its solutions, which is particularly relevant in light of the discussions here about leaving Apple products because of uncertainty about Apple's future direction. Basically, if you're looking for security, switching to Avid seems like a terrible idea.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


Return to posts index

<< PREVIOUS   •   VIEW ALL   •   PRINT   •   NEXT >>
© 2017 CreativeCOW.net All Rights Reserved
[TOP]