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FCPX update soon?

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Steve Connor
FCPX update soon?
on Aug 13, 2012 at 10:01:18 pm

I feel it's about time for the next FCPX update, are we due one soon based on the schedule so far?

Steve Connor
"The ripple command is just a workaround for not having a magnetic timelinel"
Adrenalin Television


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Devin Crane
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 13, 2012 at 10:49:04 pm

They said this year, so will probably be December 31st.



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Craig Seeman
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 13, 2012 at 11:02:44 pm

I'm thinking August as well given their update pattern.
Interesting that MacBreak Studio, who has been off this summer has announced an "FCPX answer your questions" live stream this Thursday.
http://www.pixelcorps.com/live/
These are the RippleTraining folks and they certainly have inside information.
Maybe they're expecting a very big audience on Thursday for some reason.



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Oliver Peters
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 13, 2012 at 11:07:05 pm

Someone over at FCP.co posted his speculation that it might be the end of this month. That's purely based on the calculation that Apple has been running about 70 days (give-or-take) between updates. OTOH, this update sounds like a lot will be changed/altered/augmented/updated. That could add more time. Of course, IBC at Amsterdam is around the corner in September. Although Apple hasn't been doing trade show in any official capacity, they have been doing a lot of meetings and small presentations in conjunction with some of these shows. So, quite possibly something might coincide with IBC.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Craig Seeman
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:14:07 am

My gut tells me that given the MacBreak Studio folks are beta testers I can't imagine them doing a show, after having been on hiatus, before a release that they must be able to anticipate. Of course my gut could be wrong but . . . tomorrow is Tuesday.



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Marcus Moore
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:14:41 am

You might be right. Be interesting to see what tomorrow brings...



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Marcus Moore
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:41:31 am

That would be me. The 21st is the closest Tuesday to that 70'ish day schedule they seem to be keeping. Though they have been one Tuesday either side of that on occasion. But they're remarkably consistent (and predictable) for Apple.



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Benjamin Mullins
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 7:45:29 am

Oliver Peters
'...this update sounds like a lot will be changed/altered/augmented/updated.'

What gives you this impression and what is reasonable to expect? (Baring in mind how difficult it is to predict anything Apple do).

Ben.



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Marcus Moore
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 11:20:02 am

Based on their avg 70 day sched, we've only got 2 more updates coming this year- one this month and one in November. After 2 maintenance updates, I'm betting 10.0.6 will be the "2012" feature release for the rest of the year, and 10.0.7 another maintenance update.


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Brian Mulligan
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 12:13:04 pm

Followed by the 10.1 update where you have to pay $299 again.

Brian Mulligan
Senior Editor - Autodesk Smoke
WTHR-TV Indianapolis,IN, USA
Twitter: @bkmeditor


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Oliver Peters
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:04:54 pm

"Followed by the 10.1 update where you have to pay $299 again."

There's no guarantee of that. The versions could go from 10.0.9 to 10.0.10 and still be a free update. None of us have any idea how Apple is monetizing this. AFAIK, Apple does not operate on divisional P&Ls. Only the CFO knows for sure.

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Marcus Moore
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:00:16 pm

If their update schedule continues as it has done, we won't see 10.1 until next June (with maybe a NAB preview). So it will be 2 years since the initial launch, and over a year since I moved the majority of my work over to the software. Work that I get paid for. Well.

$299 every 2 years is nothing for what I'm making off the software.

But it will be interesting to see how Apple handles a major update. Right now the MacAppStore has no software upgrade mechanism in place, so as of now there are only two options- either existing users pay nothing, or pay the full price again (which again I'd have no problem with).



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Walter Soyka
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:35:35 pm

[Brian Mulligan] "Followed by the 10.1 update where you have to pay $299 again."

I think Brian's right that 10.1 (whenever it is released) will be a paid upgrade. From the FCPX EULA:
B. Apple, at its discretion, may make available future upgrades or updates to the Apple Software for your Apple-branded computer. Apple may provide you any such upgrades and updates that it may release up to, but not including, the next major release of the Apple Software, for free. With respect to this Apple Software, for example, if you originally purchased a license for version 10.0 of the Apple software, Apple may provide you for free any software upgrades or updates it might release (e.g. version 10.0.1 or 10.0.2) up to, but not including, version 10.1 of the Apple Software. After the next major release of the Apple Software, Apple may also at its discretion continue to provide minor updates and enhancements to the Apple Software. Upgrades and updates, if any, may not necessarily include all existing software features or new features that Apple releases for newer models of Apple-branded computers and may, at Appleā€™s discretion, be provided with or without charge.

Of course, we know not the day nor the hour.

Even if Apple moved to yearly paid upgrades, current pricing would offer great value. $299 is very low maintenance.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Joseph Owens
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 15, 2012 at 2:23:13 pm

Of course, we know not the day nor the hour.

LOLZ

Except that the rapture will be a giveaway that somethin'zup.

jPo

"I always pass on free advice -- its never of any use to me" Oscar Wilde.


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Bill Davis
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 5:51:56 pm

[Brian Mulligan] "Followed by the 10.1 update where you have to pay $299 again."

This doesn't align at all with the "innovate then refine" strategy they've used for nearly everything they've done in the past 10 years.

The core product is in a place where it's pretty much rock solid. It functions precisely as it's supposed to. I personally haven't had even a hiccup in X editing in months now.

With the new metadata based construct, my uninformed suspicion is that when they release new "features" they might follow the multi-cam model we saw last year of new features being presented as "internal sub workflows" for doing specific tasks that subsequently feed their result into the existing workflow. One possible benefit of this approach would be that it kinda "walls off" the core editor.

Again, I'm not a software engineer, so maybe the software isn't as "modular" as I imagine, but multi-cam

We know the X development team is pretty tight. It's not hundreds of engineers. So I just don't see the need for asking X owners to "re-buy" the software on a regular basis.

Heck, I paid full retail for Legacy once and updated it at significantly lower costs for 11 straight years.

I can't see any reason that X won't follow that path, particularly since the cost of software deployment has dropped to near nothing.

FWIW.

"Before speaking out ask yourself whether your words are true, whether they are respectful and whether they are needed in our civil discussions."-Justice O'Connor


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Oliver Peters
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:01:05 pm

"What gives you this impression and what is reasonable to expect? (Baring in mind how difficult it is to predict anything Apple do)."

I think others have already answered, but the four pre-announced new features (better audio editing, dual viewers, RED support and MXF support) are all quite major and more than multicam. If this matches a typical update, there'll likely be about 200 tweaks, some major, some minor. So, depending on how much of this has been in the pipeline from the very beginning, they could be on track for this "70 day target" or they may need more time. For instance, if they run into final QA issues leading up to release. That, of course, could be handled by an announcement/preview with a release date a couple of weeks into the future.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Mark Dobson
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:53:58 pm

[Oliver Peters] "
I think others have already answered, but the four pre-announced new features (better audio editing, dual viewers, RED support and MXF support) are all quite major and more than multicam. If this matches a typical update, there'll likely be about 200 tweaks, some major, some minor."


It's all just intelligent speculation really.

Speculation driven by the desire to get a load of new features and improved functionality.

Apple dishing the dirt to Larry Jordan was pretty unusual but we will just have to wait and see whether we get everything they mentioned to him in the next update.

What we can be sure of is that whatever is on its way will already be being tested under teutonic NDAs.


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Marcus Moore
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:10:08 pm

[Mark Dobson] ""Apple dishing the dirt to Larry Jordan was pretty unusual but we will just have to wait and see whether we get everything they mentioned to him in the next update.""

Actually, Apple have been forthcoming on upcoming features since launch. Apple had a FAQ about upcoming features after 10.0 was released. And they pre-announced Broadcast Monitoring and Muticam on their website months before 10.0.3 was released. So the preNAB meeting with Larry was actually NOT unusual. If anything, FCPX is on the most regular, and open release schedule of anything they produce right now.

It is speculation, but informed speculation based on a year and a half of updates. When I started tracking FCPX update releases I never would have imagined that I would have been able to predict them so accurately...



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Oliver Peters
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:13:21 pm

Mark,

Just to be clear, there was no "dishing" going on. Larry was one of numerous press folks invited to individual PR briefings at NAB. That includes me. Larry happened to blog about it right away and was of course closely associated with this. However many people were given the exact same presentation throughout that week. Philip Hodgetts is another person who's written about this. These four bullet points aren't speculation. They are clearly posted on Apple's FCP X What's New page as "coming later this year." So they are pretty committed to it. What was not spelled out was what exact form these features would take. For example, "dual viewers" will be more than simple source/record, but how it will be different is unknown. RED support. Does that mean true native editing like Premiere Pro or will it be something like RED support in FCP 7 Log and Transfer? We'll see when it comes. These features (the only public ones listed) will be here this year. It's only a matter of when and what form they'll take.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Mark Dobson
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:32:14 pm

Apologies, I stand corrected.

No dishing ever occurred!

From Larrys blog one got the impression that he was given an exclusive!

And as for speculation.

[Marcus Moore] "It is speculation, but informed speculation based on a year and a half of updates. When I started tracking FCPX update releases I never would have imagined that I would have been able to predict them so accurately..."

A lot of people were absolutely convinced that there was going to be a brand new Mac Pro back in June, some even said it was a done deal, but yes it was just speculation!


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Marcus Moore
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:55:33 pm

[Mark Dobson] ""A lot of people were absolutely convinced that there was going to be a brand new Mac Pro back in June, some even said it was a done deal, but yes it was just speculation!""

Well, if you take it back to the source of that rumour. Which was an episode of Jim Dalrymple's AMPLIFIED. Jim was asked if Apple was going to kill the MacPro. And Jim said, "No.". Everything else was pile-on speculation. Jim never said anything was going to be released imminently, or even in the near future. Everyone, including myself assumed there would be a WWDC announcement. The good news out of that is we know for sure that there is a future replacement for the MacPro in the pipeline...

As far as FCPX is concerned, we have a lot more data to draw from. Here's the basis for my update schedule predictions- release dates, days interval, and type of update:

10.0.0 - 2011.06.21
10.0.1 - 2011.09.20 91 DAYS - FEATURE
10.0.2 - 2011.11.16 57 DAYS - MAINTENANCE
10.0.3 - 2012.01.31 76 DAYS - FEATURE
10.0.4 - 2012.04.10 70 DAYS - MAINTENANCE
10.0.5 - 2012.06.11 62 DAYS - MAINTENANCE (Retina update tied to MBP)

What can we parse from this? Avg release cycle 71 days (or 10 weeks), and updates with only 2 exceptions (one of those being tied to WWDC announcement) are pushed out on Tuesdays.

Until Apple breaks that pattern in a fundamental way we can only assume it will continue. And after 2 maintenance updates the best bet is on a feature release, with another maintenance update in Nov.



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Gary Huff
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:48:39 pm

[Mark Dobson] "A lot of people were absolutely convinced that there was going to be a brand new Mac Pro back in June, some even said it was a done deal, but yes it was just speculation!"

Haven't you picked up on the fact that no one learns anything? ;-)


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Mark Dobson
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:56:27 pm

[Gary Huff] "Haven't you picked up on the fact that no one learns anything? ;-)"

Me included!


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Oliver Peters
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 6:16:32 pm

[Mark Dobson] "And as for speculation. "

I understand what you mean. No issues there at all, but there is no speculation about these 4 bullet point features:

http://www.apple.com/finalcutpro/whats-new/

(Bottom of page.) The only speculation is the exact date and the nature of these features.

In the case of the Mac Pros, there never was anything officially published by Apple until Cook's announcement about next year. And that still doesn't specify a Mac Pro (as we understand it today).

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Tim Wilson
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 14, 2012 at 9:27:02 pm

[Oliver Peters] "And that still doesn't specify a Mac Pro (as we understand it today)."

I'm thinking it pretty much specifies something NOT as we understand it today. LOL

Although after the past year, I'm thinking that "understand" is a relative term.

Tim Wilson
Vice President, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou

The typos here are most likely because I'm, a) typing this on my phone; and b) an idiot.


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Bret Williams
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:56:45 am

I think the source viewer will be tied in to the multicam viewer. You'll be able to either have scopes, multicam viewer, or source viewer open. I don't think they'll add much to it. Maybe ganging.


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Steve Connor
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 20, 2012 at 6:26:15 pm

I 'm betting tomorrow

Steve Connor
'It's just my opinion, with an occasional fact thrown in for good measure"


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Marcus Moore
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 20, 2012 at 6:31:08 pm

I think it's a good bet.



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Mark Morache
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 24, 2012 at 12:36:03 am

If they want another $299, it better have all the big and little nigglies fixed, as well as mix me my evening cocktail and rub my feet.

---------
Don't live your life in a secondary storyline.

Mark Morache
FCPX/FCP7/Xpri/Avid
Evening Magazine,Seattle, WA
http://fcpx.wordpress.com


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Marcus Moore
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 24, 2012 at 12:45:19 am

I think the odds of the next update being paid are VERY slim.

I'm still imagining we'll see a preview of 10.1 at NAB and a paid upgrade in June.



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Craig Seeman
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 24, 2012 at 1:19:16 am

[Marcus Moore] "we'll see a preview of 10.1 at NAB"

Uh Oh. It might not be a safe place for them . . . especially if it's at the SuperMeet.

"Look at all these great new features . . . and another $299 please"



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Marcus Moore
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 24, 2012 at 2:13:46 am

I think the one's they'd be demoing by NAB2013 WILL be new features, not the legacy reintegration updates that we've seen so far (as modified and enhanced as they've been). I figure we'll have 2 more feature updates and 2 more maintenance updates by then 10.0.6-10.0.9. Then it will be mostly new territory, I think.

I think they NEED to come back to NAB for exactly the reason you mention.

And I'm fine paying $299 bi-annually for software that nets me tens of thousands of dollars in work.



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Steve Connor
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 28, 2012 at 1:25:58 pm

So it's another Tuesday, come on Apple give us something to talk about!

Steve Connor
'It's just my opinion, with an occasional fact thrown in for good measure"


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Tim Wilson
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 28, 2012 at 4:23:38 pm

[Steve Connor] "come on Apple give us something to talk about!"

Because Apple isn't doing anything for us to talk about.


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Steve Connor
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 28, 2012 at 4:29:54 pm

[Tim Wilson] "Because Apple isn't doing anything for us to talk about."

Fair point, but something on-topic would be nice as well

Steve Connor
'It's just my opinion, with an occasional fact thrown in for good measure"


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Tim Wilson
Re: FCPX update soon?
on Aug 28, 2012 at 7:25:45 pm

[Steve Connor] "Fair point, but something on-topic would be nice as well"

On topic? Here? That's asking a lot. LOL

Tim Wilson
Vice President, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou

The typos here are most likely because I'm, a) typing this on my phone; and b) an idiot.


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