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State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000

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Craig Seeman
State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 2:14:36 pm

CNN Money: HP prepares to announce mass layoffs
http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/23/technology/hp-layoffs/index.htm

The company's PC sales fell 15% during the holiday season, with consumer computer sales tumbling 25%.

While the decline is steeper in their consumer PCs, their entire PC sales is down.

It's not alone. Dell, which faces similar struggles, reported Tuesday that the company's lackluster PC sales dragged on its overall profit and revenue last quarter.

back to HP

That trend, of movement in the wrong direction, is expected to continue throughout the rest of 2012

None of this is specific to desktops but you might imagine it's part of the picture. I'd guess (just a guess) that "consumer" desktops (non all in ones) suffer more than workstations.

For what it's worth, Apple's PC sales are doing well even if it's not the big revenue the iPhone is.

From everything I've heard (Apple doesn't break this out though), the lower selling Macs are 17" MBP and certainly the MacPro. Both may be going away. I still hold that doesn't mean "power" is going away.



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Gary Huff
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 4:18:49 pm

[Craig Seeman] " I still hold that doesn't mean "power" is going away.
"


How can you not? If you are unable to get a dual 12-core Xeon Ivy Bridge system with 32GB+ of RAM from Apple when such a combination certainly exists in other ecosystems, then how can you maintain that?


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Craig Seeman
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 4:31:13 pm

Because Apple doesn't have all the pieces together for their new system yet.
The next generation Thunderbolt controllers came out only about a month ago.

Apple doesn't announce hardware in advance. We may (or may not) know something at WWDC.



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Chris Harlan
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 4:43:39 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Apple doesn't announce hardware in advance. We may (or may not) know something at WWDC."

I'm not sure I can agree with that. They often announce hardware weeks or in some cases months before it is shipping.


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Andrew Richards
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 4:53:18 pm

[Chris Harlan] "They often announce hardware weeks or in some cases months before it is shipping."

Only if it is an all new product segment, like the iPhone in 2007 and the iPad in 2010. There hasn't been a paper launch of a new Mac since maybe the original MacBook Air in January, 2008, and that was measured in days, not weeks or months. In recent years new Macs haven't even had press events. They just show up on Apple's site and in Apple's stores. All the new-Macs hubbub comes from without, not from Apple.

Best,
Andy


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Chris Harlan
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 5:20:53 pm

[Andrew Richards] "[Chris Harlan] "They often announce hardware weeks or in some cases months before it is shipping."

Only if it is an all new product segment, like the iPhone in 2007 and the iPad in 2010. There hasn't been a paper launch of a new Mac since maybe the original MacBook Air in January, 2008, and that was measured in days, not weeks or months. In recent years new Macs haven't even had press events. They just show up on Apple's site and in Apple's stores. All the new-Macs hubbub comes from without, not from Apple.
"


Andy, there was a two week delay with this year's iPad. And, I agree that with older lines they most often just refresh. But I was responding to "Apple doesn't announce hardware in advance." I just don't think that you can predict those kind of things from Apple. If they want to tell you about Thunderbolt in advance, they will. They'll talk about its eventual implementation long before it happens. And, they'll drop saucy hints all over the place about things like Apple TV, for an entire year before its implemented. They just do it on their own terms, and with as little or as much info as suits them. What about the 17,000 well-placed mentions of "post-PC world" in the iPad release talk? I guess that could just be sales blather, but it seems to me that that was making a rather profound announcement about the general future of Apple hardware.


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Andrew Richards
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 6:21:06 pm

[Chris Harlan] "Andy, there was a two week delay with this year's iPad. And, I agree that with older lines they most often just refresh. But I was responding to "Apple doesn't announce hardware in advance." I just don't think that you can predict those kind of things from Apple."

Fair enough, my comment was skewed to Mac releases. The reports that they will announce the new MacBook Pro at WWDC surprised me (and I remain skeptical that they will get time in the keynote).

[Chris Harlan] "If they want to tell you about Thunderbolt in advance, they will. They'll talk about its eventual implementation long before it happens. And, they'll drop saucy hints all over the place about things like Apple TV, for an entire year before its implemented. They just do it on their own terms, and with as little or as much info as suits them."

They can do whatever they want, but recent history tells us they don't care to spend hype capital on Macs they way they have been with iDevices. Thunderbolt wasn't pre-annonuced. The alleged Apple TV set (as opposed to the "hobby" little black box) has been rumored for years but I'm not convinced it is actually coming. Apple rumors and press leaks are very different than an Apple press event.

[Chris Harlan] "What about the 17,000 well-placed mentions of "post-PC world" in the iPad release talk? I guess that could just be sales blather, but it seems to me that that was making a rather profound announcement about the general future of Apple hardware."

I read all the post-PC talk as commentary on the industry at large, not a "profound announcement" about Apple's product plans. Clearly the iOS side of things is their bread and butter now. The money is there and the hype is there. Conventional PCs (Macs included) are being relegated to niche status compared to the market for smart phones (soon to be all phones) and tablets. Don't buy it? Look at the sales numbers. Smartphones sold almost twice as many units as PCs in 1Q2012. For the tasks the vast majority of users use a PC to do (web & email), a modern smartphone or tablet is a drop-in replacement. The things PCs will remain better at are niche functionalities by comparison, and that gap will only widen. When Apple says we are entering a Post-PC era, they mean everyone, not just Apple.

Best,
Andy


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Chris Harlan
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 6:45:41 pm

Apple was dropping well-placed hints about Lightpeak a year before the Thunderbolt release. Just as they are now with the TV. I know you don't believe that's necessarily happening, but I do. And, I believe some of the leaks are actually generated by Apple, just as I believe that some of the Lightpeak buildup was semi-coordinated. And yes the Post PC talk was about where Apple thinks we ALL are. But by making the statement, I think they were definitely making a statement of their general intentions.


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Tim Wilson
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 7:34:41 pm

[Chris Harlan] "But by making the statement, I think they were definitely making a statement of their general intentions."

Or the exact opposite. :-)

Remember when Steve was adamant that they would never do a tablet because tablet buyers aren't "Apple's kind of customers" -- something along the lines of "they're rich guys who buy one of everything," aka douchebags, and if there's anything that Apple customers are NOT is douchebags.

Right?

He said the same thing about Apple making phones.

Apple's capacity for making EVERYONE who predicts ANYTHING about Apple's next move look like an IDIOT is what really sets them apart.

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou



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Chris Harlan
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 7:55:42 pm

[Tim Wilson] "Apple's capacity for making EVERYONE who predicts ANYTHING about Apple's next move look like an IDIOT is what really sets them apart."

I wonder how much of it will stay that way now that Steve is gone. I always felt that capriciousness was a direct result of his presence. I'm delighted with the new AppleTV, and was amused to find that its design was rejected by Jobs two years ago. I wonder if Sir Jonathan is newly freed, or now at the mercy of those who don't quite get him? It will be wild to watch.


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Tim Wilson
Re: State of the Apple
on May 23, 2012 at 8:16:31 pm

[Chris Harlan] "I wonder if Sir Jonathan is newly freed, or now at the mercy of those who don't quite get him?"

As Steve told Isaacson, nobody was allowed to tell Jon what to do. "That's the way I set it up." But this is now.

The thing is, I think Timmy (may I call you Timmy?) has been at the wheel for a lot longer than commonly acknowledged. If not fully the captain, certainly more than the helmsman. I wonder if he sees any real percentage in shaking things up too much any time soon.

My last nautical metaphor FOR THE YEAR: my guess is that he'll stay the course, and my guess is that our guess about the course is probably substantially wrong.

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou



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Jim Giberti
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 11:25:31 pm

[Tim Wilson] "if there's anything that Apple customers are NOT is douchebags."

Whew, that's a relief.


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tony west
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 24, 2012 at 1:17:04 pm

I had to rent a laptop for a project the other day. I went to a small mom and pop place that does work on macs, rents them and sells them. (I bought my current mac pro from them)

For the heck of it I asked a woman who works there who I have worked with in the past if there would be a new Mac Pro.

To my surprise she said "YES"

I asked, "will it be a tower, like that?" as I pointed to a tower on the showroom floor.

She said "yes, it will be a tower"

I was struck by how matter of fact she was about it.
They are independent and this is all they do. They have been in the biz working only with macs for years so I would have to believe they have contacts who are suppliers and stuff.

She didn't have a date of when.

We will see.


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Craig Seeman
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 24, 2012 at 2:38:39 pm

Interesting. I recently had the same response from someone else. They also stated matter of fact that there will be a new tower in Q3. Of course the didn't answer when I asked about source but they presented this as fact, not speculation.



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David Cherniack
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 4:45:45 pm

Lenovo profits seem to be up.

http://www.engadget.com/2012/05/23/lenovo-annual-financial-report/

I imagine Acer and Ass are probably also doing well.

David
AllinOneFilms.com


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Craig Seeman
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 4:59:32 pm

And all three have announced Thunderbolt support as well. I think they will continue to do well. Those that need to work in a cross platform environment will be able to maximize their investment (or be willing to make an investment) in Thunderbolt peripherals.



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Chris Harlan
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 5:22:32 pm

[Craig Seeman] "And all three have announced Thunderbolt support as well. I think they will continue to do well. Those that need to work in a cross platform environment will be able to maximize their investment (or be willing to make an investment) in Thunderbolt peripherals.
"


Hey, Thunderbolt rocks. I've been very pleased with it.


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Tim Wilson
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 5:27:30 pm

It's all a matter of scale. 25,000 is a lot of people, but HP's workforce remains around 349,000. Apple is around 60,000.

I remember when people were saying similar things about Apple not that long ago. For 2002 and much of 2003, Apple stock remained in single digits. For the first part of 2003, not a single month averaged even $8.

Doomed, doomed, layoffs, layoffs, not even the Return of the King can save them, he's still focused on Pixar, blah blah blah.

This doesn't even count the 90s, when things were far hairier than that.

HP ain't gonna pull an Apple. Do you think anybody ever will?

But still, HP is #10 on the 2012 Fortune 500 -- Apple is #17!

First quarter this year HP reported $1.5 billion in profits on $30 billion, and while down, that was before any new workstations started shipping. While trading near the bottom of the year's range, the stock is stable on the layoff news, and consensus still sees 30% growth by the end of the year.

Again, not Apple, but nobody is...and not bad.

They're gonna be fine.




[Mark it on the calendar: May 23 is the first time in 2012 that I make a post veering back TOWARD the topic. Hey, statistically speaking, it had to happen some time.]

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou



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Chris Harlan
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 6:23:18 pm

Also, aren't most of the layoffs coming to the printer sector? Given the general move away from printing, that makes some sense.


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Greg Andonian
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 6:41:13 pm

David Cherniack I imagine Acer and Ass are probably also doing well.

I hope so. It would be sad to see Ass take a dive. ;)

______________________________________________
"THAT'S our fail-safe point. Up until here, we still have enough track to stop the locomotive before it plunges into the ravine... But after this windmill it's the future or bust."


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David Cherniack
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 9:17:38 pm

Damn spelling corrector...Asus should sue.

David
AllinOneFilms.com


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 7:46:14 pm

[David Cherniack] "I imagine Acer and Ass are probably also doing well."

...uh, wut?


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Andrew Richards
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 8:19:03 pm

Asus, I'm guessing.

And no, they aren't doing so well. Acer lost NT$6.6B ($223M USD) last year and ASUSTeK is seeing shrinking revenues (though they did manage to keep their bottom line relatively flat in spite of that).

Best,
Andy


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 8:20:17 pm

[Andrew Richards] "Asus, I'm guessing."

...damn autocorrect


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Andrew Richards
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 8:21:09 pm

[Jeremy Garchow] "...damn autocorrect"

Or iOS Freudian slip?

Best,
Andy


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 8:24:36 pm

perhaps Asus was purposefully programmed as ass in shortcuts

in that case, well done


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Clint Wardlow
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 9:41:48 pm

I'm not sure how thunderbolt will work to increase processor speed and ram. It was my understanding that it was not fast enough to deal with GPU (I could be wrong on this). So it seems to me that Apple is still going to have to build a big box of some sort to house multiple processors and lots of ram.

Modular may be the wave of the future, but it seems like there are a lot of kinks to work out before it is truely workable.

I just wish Apple would give us some sort of indicator of the direction they are going. It seems like as a company they don't mind you spending big bucks on something of theirs and one month later they pull the rug out from under you.


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Don Scioli
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 23, 2012 at 9:46:53 pm

Could you imagine this happening in the auto industry? you buy a new, say BMW, and after 2 years, you cannot get the car serviced at all, anywhere it's EOL. Or, as in the Case of Final Cut Pro X, you go to but a new BMW and they have the car set up with right handed drive, a left handed gear shift, right foot brake and no front window....plus the radio only plays NPR.


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Andrew Richards
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 24, 2012 at 2:19:33 am

Somebody call the analogy police!


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Tim Wilson
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 24, 2012 at 5:50:42 am

I just noticed that the layoffs won't actually be completed until October 2014. Not sounding so dire to me.

I also noted that, while overall down, HP's financials beat the street estimate, and stock was up 9% yesterday on the news.

I ain't saying that this represents the turnaround HP is looking for, but it also doesn't represent the wheels falling off.

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou



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Craig Seeman
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 24, 2012 at 2:48:40 pm

I don't think HP is in the deepest of trouble. In fact HP is thinking well about where to trim. While PC sales are down, I think that just needs some rejiggering. The new Z1 is a good example. On the other hand the printer division might rightfully be a lost cause sinkhole. There's not much money in consumer level printers beyond repeating ink sales these days.

Personally I find myself printing less and less and sending people PDFs more and more than can be viewed on tablets, smartphones, laptops, desktops. There's still a demand for short runs of more "artistic" printing but that's a smaller market.

It looks like HP is looking at an attrition/early retirement program even the time from Tim states.



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Tim Wilson
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 24, 2012 at 3:30:31 pm

I don't know anything about HP, really, beyond the same stuff everybody else reads. As you point out, Craig, a number of the jobs trimmed will come through early attrition and retirement....and c'mon, I think every company with 369,000 employees could probably stand to trim 8% of 'em in the next two and a half years. LOL



[Craig Seeman] "Personally I find myself printing less and less "

That's what they mentioned in their advice to Wall Street. Not that YOU are printing less and less, but that EVERYONE is printing less. I rarely get as far as PDFs. I mostly just send attachments.

I can't think of a single thing I've printed since a Google map last fall.

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou



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David Cherniack
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 24, 2012 at 9:07:27 pm

[Jeremy Garchow] "erhaps Asus was purposefully programmed as ass in shortcuts

in that case, well done"


Not so fast, jeremyski. Asus makes some pretty good booty, er products. I have a mainboard and an i7 gaming laptop that are very reliable so any suggestions of intentional autocorretophilia are most definitely incorrectal.

David
AllinOneFilms.com


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: State of the PC Industry - HP lays of 25,000
on May 24, 2012 at 9:19:20 pm

[David Cherniack] "Asus makes some pretty good booty, er products."

nothing against asus the company i was saying the humor would have been well done if my previous ass umption would have been true

i am trying to defeat autocorrect with zero punctuation

it cares not of grammar


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Tim Wilson
Re: State of the Ass(us)
on May 24, 2012 at 9:26:50 pm

[David Cherniack] "definitely incorrectal"

Don't think I didn't notice that.

Hey, and on the autocorrect front, I type the f word so often that I added it to the dictionary on my phone. Then there was time that I was typing an email to a client whose last name is Guzik....

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou



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