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Andrew Richards
No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 1:40:27 am

Reading MacRumors reporting on today's Apple financial results conference call, this jumped out at me:

Q: Can you talk about how you think about the markets for tablets and PC devices going forward? You've been fairly clear about saying that tablets will eclipse PC's in volume at some point, and they are somewhat discrete markets. There seems to be a lot of work on PC platforms to combine PC and tablet experiences going forward. Can you comment on why you don't believe the MacBook Air and tablet markets won't converge? Isn't it realistic to believe that we'll have a device under 2 lbs that will be a notebook and a tablet? Can you comment on why you don't think that product will come?

A: Anything can be forced to converge. The products are about tradeoffs. You begin to make tradeoffs to the point where what you have left at the end of the day doesn't please anyone. You can converge a toaster and a refrigerator but those won't be pleasing to the user. Our view is that the tablet market is huge and we've said that since day one. We didn't wait until we had results. We were using them here and it was clear to us that there was so much you could do and the reasons people used them would be so broad, the iPad is so useful in consumer, and enterprise and education -- the applications are so easy to make very meaningful for someone and there is such an abundance of those, as the ecosystem gets better and better -- we'll continue to double down on making great products. The limit here is nowhere in sight. It's been 2 years since we shipped the iPad and we've sold more than 60 million iPads. Took 24 years to sell that many Macs, 5 years to sell that many iPods, 3 years to sell that many iPhones.

iPad is a great product, appeal is universal, I could not be happier with being in the market and the level at which we're innovating in the product and the ecosystem.

I also believe that there is a very good market for the MacBook Air and we continue to innovate in that product. I do think that it appeals to someone that has a little bit different requirements. You wouldn't want to put these things together because you wind up compromising and not pleasing either user. Some people prefer to own both, but to make the compromises on convergence... we're not going to that party. Others might, particularly from a defensive point of view but we're going to play in both.


The implication is clear. OS X and iOS are separate UIs for separate use cases, and they will remain so. That last line in the quote above is a clear shot at Windows 8.

Best,
Andy


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Chris Harlan
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 2:02:15 am

[Andrew Richards] "The implication is clear. OS X and iOS are separate UIs for separate use cases, and they will remain so. "

We also know that the Air is safe. What makes me really angry, though, is that it is also clear that they've abandoned the Toasterator. I wanted one in white with a nice Braun-like finish.


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 2:53:25 am

Also this-

"The new iPad is off to a great start, and across the year, you're going to see a lot more of the kind of innovation that only Apple can deliver."

Vague. But...


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Tim Wilson
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 3:16:28 am

"There are no plans to make a tablet. It turns out people want keyboards. When Apple first started out, People couldn't type. We realized: Death would eventually take care of this. And so, people know how to type now. And if you do email of any volume, you gotta have a keyboard."

and

"We look at the tablet and we think it's going to fail. And people accuse US of niche markets! Tablets appeal to rich guys with plenty of other PCs and devices already."

and

"I'm not convinced people want to watch movies on a tiny little screen."

Steve Jobs in 2003, when asked directly by Walt Mossberg of The Wall St. Journal, are you working on a tablet and do you have plans for movies on iPods.


The plan is the plan until the plan changes. Unless they're outright, uhm, prevaricating, and would just as soon not let you know what the plan actually is.

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou



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Jeremy Garchow
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 3:23:30 am

[Tim Wilson] "The plan is the plan until the plan changes. Unless they're outright, uhm, prevaricating, and would just as soon not let you know what the plan actually is."

I feel the same way, and you can simply add a big "for now" at the end, but there's no way they could go all iOS today.

No one could contribute to the AppStore.

And we also have to remember, the Internet was slow and expensive in 2003.

And don't forget what an iPod looked like in 2003: http://www.apple.com/pr/products/ipodhistory/

Jeremy


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Andrew Richards
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 3:30:55 am

[Jeremy Garchow] "And don't forget what an iPod looked like in 2003"

Or the "tablets" Jobs was rightfully scoffing at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Tablet_PC

Best,
Andy


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Chris Harlan
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 3:33:34 am

[Tim Wilson] "The plan is the plan until the plan changes."

And when it changes, it was always the plan.


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Tim Wilson
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 3:39:52 am

[Chris Harlan] "[Tim Wilson] "The plan is the plan until the plan changes."

And when it changes, it was always the plan."


Ha! Exactly.

Another quote from the 2003 interview: "We didn't think we'd do well in the cell phone business...We chose to do the iPod instead of a PDA."

So yeah, in 2003 they didn't think they'd do well in the phone business. In 2007, they started doing pretty well. Maybe in 2003 they thought they'd do really, really well in the phone business in a few years and were already working on it.

It took until 2010 to get all the way there with iPad, but what came to pass in 7 years is pretty much the EXACT opposite of what Steve said in 2003.

Not that they're lying today (or then), but none of these guys are obligated to tell the whole truth. No disrespect intended but it's more like they're obligated NOT to tell the whole truth. "We're not planning today" ain't worth much in the long haul, and I'm okay with that.

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou



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Andrew Kimery
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 4:24:22 am

Jobs also panned the Kindle because "no one reads anymore" and said that flash-based MP3 players always ended up discarded because they are too small. In both cases iPads and iPod Shuffles had to be sitting in a lab somewhere deep in the bowels of Cupertino.


-Andrew

2.9 GHz 8-core (4,1), FCP 7.0.3, 10.6.6
Blackmagic Multibridge Eclipse (7.9.5)



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Chris Kenny
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 5:31:35 am

[Andrew Kimery] "Jobs also panned the Kindle because "no one reads anymore" and said that flash-based MP3 players always ended up discarded because they are too small. In both cases iPads and iPod Shuffles had to be sitting in a lab somewhere deep in the bowels of Cupertino."

He was sort of right about books:



Apple did books because they were easy once the iPad was out there and the iTunes Store infrastructure was in place, not because they were a big market.

But yes, Apple has a history of insisting certain products aren't worthwhile until they start making them. In some cases (when Apple only enters markets years later), it might even be genuine -- Apple really doesn't think certain products are worthwhile until new technologies and new approaches make them so. It's quite possible that Apple doesn't quite see how iOS and OS X could be usefully merged today, but they've got people working on figuring it out.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 5:27:37 pm

[Chris Kenny] "Apple did books because they were easy once the iPad was out there and the iTunes Store infrastructure was in place, not because they were a big market."

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, but a digital bookstore and the iPad as an eReader was part of the plan all along, IMO. Even when Jobs gave that interview panning eReaders and digital book stores I bet he knew Apple would have a digital bookstore and a key selling point of the iPad would be as an eReader.

Jobs did something very surprising, at least to me, in giving props to Amazon and the Kindle during the unveiling of the original iPad.


"But yes, Apple has a history of insisting certain products aren't worthwhile until they start making them. In some cases (when Apple only enters markets years later), it might even be genuine -- Apple really doesn't think certain products are worthwhile until new technologies and new approaches make them so. It's quite possible that Apple doesn't quite see how iOS and OS X could be usefully merged today, but they've got people working on figuring it out."


I think it's the extreme black and white nature that makes it stand out so much. Some companies might give a non-answer like "we'll see where the market goes and if it makes sense for us blah blah blah" and some companies, like Adobe w/Adobe Labs, will actively show off things they are working on in an 'Hey, we don't know exactly what to do with this but it's cool and we wanted to share it' type fashion.

Apple, on the other hand is very black and white, yes or no about their products publicly. If they make something it is unprecedentedly magical and if they don't it's useless crap. I say 'publicly' because from what I've read there's a stock pile of things in Apple's labs that have never, will never, see the light of day and that doesn't surprise me.

I mean, Apple had OSX running on intel chips for years before they made the switch from PPC and I bet they have contingency plans up the wazoo. I think Apple is a very prepared, methodical company that has far flung product road maps, they just don't give any hint of what's on those road maps to anyone but the most senior staff at Apple.


-Andrew

2.9 GHz 8-core (4,1), FCP 7.0.3, 10.6.6
Blackmagic Multibridge Eclipse (7.9.5)



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Chris Kenny
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 5:32:24 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, but a digital bookstore and the iPad as an eReader was part of the plan all along, IMO. Even when Jobs gave that interview panning eReaders and digital book stores I bet he knew Apple would have a digital bookstore and a key selling point of the iPad would be as an eReader."

Panning a device that's only an eReader was justifiable, given the relative sales numbers for books/songs/apps. That doesn't mean books weren't worth eventually supporting on a multifunction device.

[Andrew Kimery] "I mean, Apple had OSX running on intel chips for years before they made the switch from PPC and I bet they have contingency plans up the wazoo. I think Apple is a very prepared, methodical company that has far flung product road maps, they just don't give any hint of what's on those road maps to anyone but the most senior staff at Apple."

Yes, this is almost certainly true.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 5:36:59 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "Apple, on the other hand is very black and white, yes or no about their products publicly."

Don't worry, the internet will fix it.

http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-31747_7-57420950-243/kickstarter-project-aims-...


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Andrew Kimery
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:31:12 pm

[Jeremy Garchow] "
Don't worry, the internet will fix it.

http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-31747_7-57420950-243/kickstarter-project-aims-....."


Ah, god bless the internet.

2.9 GHz 8-core (4,1), FCP 7.0.3, 10.6.6
Blackmagic Multibridge Eclipse (7.9.5)



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Tim Wilson
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 5:43:27 pm

[Chris Kenny] "He was sort of right about books:"

The problem isn't eBooks. It's that Apple decided to do the exact opposite of what they did for iTunes. Instead of a huge library of cheap stuff, they have a tiny library of expensive stuff.

I'm frankly amazed that they've sold even ONE book. I can buy from a dramatically wider universe through Amazon, almost always for less, and sometimes a LOT less, and read them on my iDevices and computer desktop with the Kindle app just fine thanks.

In fact, I now use my Kindle more than my iPad because it's so much easier to buy -- and BORROW, and SHARE -- books. And as a result, my book buying has skyrocketed.

Let's tally. You create an amazing store that makes me want to buy a device. The device and the store are so compelling, and it's one click to have it INSTANTLY, and the prices are so close to impulse buys, and it's so easy to discover exciting new stuff that I buy more from the store than you ever imagined I would. I love this device! I love this store!

Dang! Wouldn't it be great if somebody could figure out how to do that with music?

Morons.

Apple is never going to get a penny of it because they're doing it WRONG. Which is idiotic. They're running their book business like they never heard of iTunes.

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou



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Chris Kenny
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 5:51:30 pm

[Tim Wilson] "Apple is never going to get a penny of it because they're doing it WRONG. Which is idiotic. They're running their book business like they never heard of iTunes."

In order to lure publishers away from exclusively supporting Amazon, Apple offered to take a substantially smaller cut than Amazon was taking and let publishers set their own prices. Did publishers turn around and say "Great! Now that we're getting 70% instead of 30-40%, we can lower prices"? They did not. They raised prices. This is silly, and it is broken, but it's hard to see what Apple could have done. With music, Apple had some clout to try to force record labels onto Apple's pricing scheme. With books, because Amazon, not Apple, was the market leader, Apple didn't have such clout.

(Apple also lets app developers set their own prices, of course, and apps tend to be priced quite reasonably, but this is probably attributable to the app market being so much more competitive -- there are many more app developers than major publishing companies.)

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Tim Wilson
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:08:10 pm

[Chris Kenny] "Apple offered to take a substantially smaller cut than Amazon was taking and let publishers set their own prices. Did publishers turn around and say "Great! Now that we're getting 70% instead of 30-40%, we can lower prices"? They did not. They raised prices. "

And we have Apple to thank for it. They very explicitly conspired with publishers to raise prices. This isn't some shadow theory. I've read the emails and with a quick Google search, you can too. Raising prices was Steve's explicit goal from the beginning. Again, not a shadow theory. He said so. That part is public even outside the DoJ's filing. Look it up.

The fact is that they had a number of paths to choose, and chose one based on collusion between competitors to fix prices that were higher than previous market standards, with punishment for those who deviated from the plan.

Sure, Apple didn't have the upper hand for once, and tried to play a different game than the market leader was playing. Why not? It has worked for them before. Not this time.

The irony is that once this ridiculous arrangement is undone, I think Apple's book fortunes are potentially limitless. If I was Amazon, I'd be praying that Apple tries to stay the course.

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou



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Chris Kenny
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 6:20:29 pm

[Tim Wilson] "And we have Apple to thank for it. They very explicitly conspired with publishers to raise prices. This isn't some shadow theory. I've read the emails and with a quick Google search, you can too. Raising prices was Steve's explicit goal from the beginning. Again, not a shadow theory. He said so. That part is public even outside the DoJ's filing. Look it up."

The DoJ's case against Apple is widely considered weak. There's no need to invoke collusion to explain either why Apple would offer publishers a better deal than Amazon was -- it's the same deal Apple offers app developers, and Apple is less interested than Amazon in making money from content sales. Nor is there any need to invoke collusion to explain why publishers would all accept this deal and try to use it to impose similar terms on Amazon -- you don't nee to collude to decide to accept a better deal. Nor is there any clear reason why Apple would want ebooks to cost more.

The 'collusion' narrative makes little sense. As far as I can tell, the only thing Apple has done with respect to ebooks that is arguably anticompetitive is its 'most favored nations' clause, but this isn't strictly related to high prices on the iBookstore.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Kevin Patrick
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 12:28:38 pm

I think there are several reasons Apple acts (or acted) the way it does.

After reading Walter Isaacson's book, it appears that Jobs would frequently dismiss an idea only to do a complete 180 on the concept. Even to the point of believing it was his idea.

It also appears that Apple works on concepts that don't always make it to market, at least not right away. I thought that the iPhone grew out of a tablet concept that wasn't moving forward. So, at that time, you could probably say Apple wasn't interested in tablets, which may have been due to the fact they didn't care for the initial concept.

Apple is also what I believe to be the most secretive company when it comes to what it's doing. Not only do they not want anyone knowing what their doing, they don't want their employees to know what their doing. They have no tailgating (or did) rules in their facility. If you aren't authorized to enter an area, you can't get into that area.

When Apple talks to anyone outside of Apple, I'm sure they take the view they are talking to their competitors.

So I'm not surprised when Apple says one thing and does another. Whether it was the original plan or not.


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Richard Herd
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 4:37:50 pm

[Tim Wilson] ""We didn't think we'd do well in the cell phone business...We chose to do the iPod instead of a PDA.""

Then they stole technology from Motorola.


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Joseph Owens
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 7:21:06 pm

[Tim Wilson] "Not that they're lying today (or then), but none of these guys are obligated to tell the whole truth. No disrespect intended but it's more like they're obligated NOT to tell the whole truth."

There was a famous baroque Venetian politician who's favourite epithet was something like,
"Non dico bugie, ma la verit√°, non √° tutti." if you can forgive my written italian.

It sort of translates as "I never tell lies, but the truth is not for everyone to know."

jPo

You mean "Old Ben"? Ben Kenobi?


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Mark Bein
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 8:41:34 am

Hmm, you realize that a tablet in 2003 was basically a notebook without a keyboard,
that cost around 3000 Dollar?
It didn't have a capacitive touchscreen and it did fail.
So they didn't change the plan and never build a 2003 tablet...


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Chris Jacek
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 10:53:30 am

I also think that the line about the Macbook Air can be viewed as tacit confirmation that the Macbook Pro is dead, at least the way that we know it.

Professor, Producer, Editor
and former Apple Employee


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Andrew Richards
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 12:03:42 pm

If that means losing the bulky optical drive, good riddance. I'd rather have room for more storage or more battery. But I don't think it is in any way suggestive the MBP line is being killed of. The question named the Air specifically, so Cook answered about the Air specifically.

Best,
Andy


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Mark Suszko
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 7:33:29 pm

I have to chuckle at Apple Prognosticators because they remind me of the "Kremlinologists" at State, NSA, CIA, etc. who's job was to use whatever ouija boards and other data sources they could find, to interpret what was on Moscow's mind from moment to moment.

And only in the light of history, as some of those cold war records open up, do we see how far off some of those predictions were because the blank slate of a faceless giant organization is really a mirror, held up to the mind of the people trying to penetrate it. We tend to see what we want to see, and follow their logic by modeling it on our own.


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Tim Wilson
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 26, 2012 at 7:09:29 am

[Mark Suszko] "I have to chuckle at Apple Prognosticators because they remind me of the "Kremlinologists" at State, NSA, CIA, etc. who's job was to use whatever ouija boards and other data sources they could find, to interpret what was on Moscow's mind from moment to moment."

We're all the equivalent of Kremlinologists re Apple, no? Applogolists? Certainly in this forum.

One of the fun things about watching this is that Apple has a habit of making EVERYONE wrong, no matter what they guessed about what was coming. I'm okay with that. It's kind of comforting to find myself so wrong about so much, so often. All is right with the world.

I mean, seriously, what would happen if I was right any meaningful percentage of the time? What would my kids say? What would my wife say? The wheels would fall off my entire world.

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou



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Herb Sevush
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 26, 2012 at 2:59:46 pm

[Tim Wilson] "I mean, seriously, what would happen if I was right any meaningful percentage of the time? What would my kids say? What would my wife say? The wheels would fall off my entire world."

Beautiful.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Chris Harlan
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 26, 2012 at 4:14:51 pm

[Tim Wilson] "I mean, seriously, what would happen if I was right any meaningful percentage of the time? What would my kids say? "

Dad, can I take the Leer down to the Cayman's this weekend?


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TImothy Auld
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 26, 2012 at 5:38:57 pm

Gulfstream V. You can stand all the way up in those.

Tim


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Andrew Richards
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 26, 2012 at 8:24:53 pm

[TImothy Auld] "Gulfstream V. You can stand all the way up in those."

G5?

Naw.

G6.







Best,
Andy


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TImothy Auld
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 26, 2012 at 9:12:24 pm

That was fun. And you're right - G6 all the way. So, I'll bring the champagne and shots and you bring the jet and the women. Deal?

Tim


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Jim Giberti
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 26, 2012 at 9:25:36 pm

[TImothy Auld] "That was fun. And you're right - G6 all the way. So, I'll bring the champagne and shots and you bring the jet and the women. Deal?"

I just found this post out of context Timothy, but whatever the context was, I'm in.


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TImothy Auld
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 26, 2012 at 10:07:26 pm

I'll text you when it's happening.

Tim


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Chris Harlan
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 26, 2012 at 10:53:25 pm

Is it true that Bill Davis is paying for it?


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Tim Wilson
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 26, 2012 at 11:14:19 pm

[Chris Harlan] "Is it true that Bill Davis is paying for it?"

I'd say that's the LEAST he could do.

LOL


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Mitch Ives
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 7:35:36 pm

[Andrew Richards] "If that means losing the bulky optical drive, good riddance. I'd rather have room for more storage or more battery. But I don't think it is in any way suggestive the MBP line is being killed of. The question named the Air specifically, so Cook answered about the Air specifically."

My crystal ball is all fogged up, but elsewhere yesterday someone was suggesting that the 17" was on it's way out. Apparently it only sold 500K units, which is considered too small for Apple. The 13" MBP sold the most (over a million)... with the 15" behind a bit...

Mitch Ives
Insight Productions Corp.

"Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things." - Winston Churchill


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Paul Dickin
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 9:26:51 pm

[Mitch Ives] "someone was suggesting that the 17" was on it's way out. Apparently it only sold 500K units, which is considered too small for Apple. The 13" MBP sold the most (over a million)... with the 15" behind a bit..."
Hi
Worse than that.
50,000 for the 17" - the 500K figure was for the 15"...
http://www.macrumors.com/2012/04/23/apple-predicted-to-discontinue-17-inch-...



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Thomas Frank
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 25, 2012 at 10:11:11 pm

You guys realize that Apple or and Steve Jobs said certain things to make them believe the opposite?
So they can work away with compitition and make it a bigger surprise?



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Mitch Ives
Re: No Convergence of iOS & OS X
on Apr 26, 2012 at 4:19:17 am

Thanks for correcting my typo... yes 50,000... which really is a small amount.

I can see them canceling it... too bad, that's the size I always buy...

Mitch Ives
Insight Productions Corp.

"Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things." - Winston Churchill


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