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The Fog Thickens

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Andrew Richards
The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:58:00 am

So all the cats are out of their bags. Smoke's new UI and new price, CS6 in all its glory with OpenCL buds appearing next to the CUDA flowers, Avid doubling down on discounts with the Symphony crossgrade, Blackmagic managing to stun everyone again, and Thunderbolt goodies everywhere, even on PCs.

Oh, and Apple is predictably quiet, lurking in some nearby hotel suite conducting clandestine briefings for hand-picked somebodies.

Walster Biscardi reports FCPX is still very much instrumentum non grata and that Apple is either On Notice or Dead To Me for most editors he's spoken with at NAB.

Terence Curren said he tried to line up someone, anyone, using Premiere Pro for film or TV work to come to this year's pre-NAB Editor's Lounge. But he said he couldn't, even after calling Adobe. Was Team Coco unavailable?

Avid says they are losing money again, and it is the "creative enthusiast" market that is hurting them the most.

What gives? If every film and TV pro is flocking back to Avid, why are they back in the red? Was everyone waiting for CS6 to hop to Premiere? Does Smoke 2013 change everything?

I feel like this NAB asks more questions than it answers for me. What about you?

Best,
Andy


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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:09:55 am

"After a hugely successful 18-month beta program, EditShare is pleased to announce the official release of Lightworks, the world-class NLE, on the 28th of May 2012."

Back to the future.

http://news.creativecow.net/story/868546

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:39:43 am

We always hear about never basing your business on price because there's always someone cheaper.
Never pay for another NLE again.


Someone will top that by paying us to use their NLE software . . . ."TIm, I've got an idea, buy a Mac and we'll pay you $100 to use FCPX"



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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 2:48:26 pm

Herb,


Thanks for catching this - I was going to chime in about waiting on Lightworks yet, but I had missed this announcement.

It's a bit thin on details for the Mac version though; I suppose it will be clearer at the end of May.


Franz.


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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 2:52:32 pm

[Franz Bieberkopf] "It's a bit thin on details for the Mac version though; I suppose it will be clearer at the end of May."

With the apparent demise of any OSX workstation options, I'm no longer interested in the Mac version of any product. I'll be downloading my Windows version on the 28th.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:01:35 pm

[Herb Sevush] "... I'm no longer interested in the Mac version of any product."

Well, I'm still hovering about. I'm currently on what may be my last Mac, though an upgrade would not be out of the question. My plan is to transition to platform agnostic software so that when it comes time for a new machine I have more options on the table.

A trial of Lightworks would be good to compare with PPro CS6.


Franz.


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:41:22 am

Press Release
"NAB renames itself National Association of Creative Enthusiasts"



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Robert Brown
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 5:04:21 am

Nice well written post with a lot of good points. These are interesting times but it also seems like seeing a $3500 Smoke is the forbidden fruit or something. So tempting but to indulge is just the beginning of the end. I'm sort of amazed at my own reaction or lack of it. When Smoke for Mac came out I was like WOW! But it was too expensive and didn't have batch.

Now miraculously it's totally affordable with Batch more or less - which many speculated would never end up in Smoke for Mac - and I care less than when it was more expensive. Does dropping the price cheapen the whole thing? Was it the expense of video equipment in the past that made it exciting? I think to some degree yes.

But with $1000 Resolve, $3500 Smoke it's like what's next? A Rolls Royce for $75? Am I on to something or completely off? Are we watching the complete deflation of our industry?

Robert Brown
Editor/VFX/Colorist - FCP, Smoke, Quantel Pablo, After Effects, 3DS MAX, Premiere Pro

http://vimeo.com/user3987510/videos


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Andrew Kimery
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 5:28:02 am

It seems like no niche is safe from having its ego deflated. I can only imagine how a colorist who climbed the ladder and 'earned' the right to fly a DaVinci must feel right now seeing it included as a freebie w/a $3k camera. Has to be a kick to the nuts on some level.

But that's just the way it goes and it's been going like that for a long time. At some point we'll totally bottom out, people will say that no one will ever need an editor, colorist, VFX artist ever again and we'll all wonder why we didn't listen to our parents and become doctors or whatever.

And then something odd will happen.

People will go, "Holy crap. This editing/VFX/coloring thing is hard. You need like talent and knowledge and stuff. I didn't realize it could be so complicated and time consuming. Screw doing it myself I'm just going to hire someone." All will be right in the world again.

Pretty much anyone can get their hands on a soccer ball, guitar or pencil & paper but that doesn't mean anyone can play in the Premiere League, become a successful musician, or pen a best selling novel.


-Andrew

2.9 GHz 8-core (4,1), FCP 7.0.3, 10.6.6
Blackmagic Multibridge Eclipse (7.9.5)



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Robert Brown
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 5:39:30 am

Yeah I agree. And luckily there are still people out there willing to pay for the intangible. I've been saying for years that photography is a good model as it once was an exclusive field and now practically everyone has a camera in their cell phone, but those who can really create quality images can still make a great living. There was a period in the 80s and 90s where just knowing how to use video gear would get you a job but those days are mostly gone. The art of something still can't be programmed into a computer - at least for now.

Robert Brown
Editor/VFX/Colorist - FCP, Smoke, Quantel Pablo, After Effects, 3DS MAX, Premiere Pro

http://vimeo.com/user3987510/videos


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Richard Herd
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:00:23 pm

Well said!

[Robert Brown] "The art of something still can't be programmed into a computer - at least for now."


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Phil Hoppes
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:00:38 pm

Well yes and no. What I believe is being seen in this industry closely parallels what has already happened in a business I use to be in, semiconductors. When I started in that business back in the mid 70's designing and manufacturing semiconductors was the private domain of large corporations with very deep pockets that made huge investments in capital and software. A "typical" software suite one needed to competently design a chip was around 1 - 2 Million dollars with another half to 1 million dollars in hardware. Designers were a specialized breed with very specific knowledge at a detailed level. They used very complex and sophisticated tools.

Fast forward to what that industry looks like today. Today a moderately competent individual, with no engineering degree and using software that costs from free to less than a $1000, can design in days, a very sophisticated device. They "manufacture" it themselves because the entire device is programmable. Hardware costs are nothing more than a mid level PC with a USB port. This has fostered a complete proliferation of custom low cost devices that are used in thousands of applications. None of the demand today could have been supported with the design flow that I started my career. Over the course of my previous career I literally watched what I use to do for a living get reduced to nothing more than a mouse click on a software package. I'm not bitter but I realized for myself that I had to move on. Now granted, Intel still uses an army of engineers and millions of dollars of hardware and software to design their chips. But the total semiconductor market has been completely changed and a huge portion of the lower and mid range end of devices has exponentially expanded to what I describe above and the very, very high end has shrunk to a much smaller list of large players.

I would posit that that is exactly what is going on within the video industry today. The internet, YouTube, smartphones and tablets with 1080p video cameras have completely destroyed what use to be a small and private market. High end solution providers will be needed for sure going forward but the huge bulk of video editing demand going forward simply cannot be met with solutions of the past. Net result is exactly what is going on. Tools are dropping dramatically in price. Totally untrained individuals are entering your sandbox and are competing with you for work at un-heard of prices.

So where do you go from here? I wish I had those answers. This is a very hard problem. Learn to love change is one thing I have had to do. Be innovative and keep reinventing yourself is another.


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:31:54 pm

Andrew -

Once again we're back to what I've been hoping for for years - a big sticker required on the side of all creative software saying "TALENT NOT INCLUDED!".

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Walter Soyka
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:48:04 pm

[Joseph W. Bourke] "Once again we're back to what I've been hoping for for years - a big sticker required on the side of all creative software saying "TALENT NOT INCLUDED!"."

From the classic An Open Letter to Canon video: "What's in the box? Tears."



Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 5:04:10 pm

That's great, Walter - I hadn't seen it before. All the hoopla about what's pro, what's not pro, etc. which we've seen here makes me think of what it was like when desktop publishing for the masses first became a reality - 36 fonts, and all were used on one page! Everyone became a designer, just like every cub scout with a T2i and FCPX these days hangs out a "Cinematographer" shingle.

But the beauty of the desktop publishing revolution was that people could then afford the price of admission - and some had talent, or developed it. The cheapening of technology always ends up for the better at some point. Those who are willing to put in their 100,000 hours will rise to the top, spawning a new generation of people who will say, "Wow...if I had that software, I could make a feature film too."

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 5:11:12 pm

[Joseph W. Bourke] "All the hoopla about what's pro, what's not pro, etc. which we've seen here makes me think of what it was like when desktop publishing for the masses first became a reality"

I wonder if these battles happened when desktop computers increased in use over mainframes.



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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 5:27:04 pm

The real explosion happened in 1985, when Apple introduced the LaserWriter printer, then shortly thereafter, Aldus introduced PageMaker, which became the industry standard, and is InDesign's grandfather, so to speak.

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Mitch Ives
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:50:20 pm

[Joseph W. Bourke] "The real explosion happened in 1985, when Apple introduced the LaserWriter printer,"

I think you've got the date wrong. I had a LaserWriter with our five Lisa 2's before the Macintosh came out, which debuted in 1984...

Mitch Ives
Insight Productions Corp.

"Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things." - Winston Churchill


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David Roth Weiss
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 8:10:11 pm

[Andrew Kimery] "I can only imagine how a colorist who climbed the ladder and 'earned' the right to fly a DaVinci must feel right now seeing it included as a freebie w/a $3k camera. Has to be a kick to the nuts on some level."

At NAB some were looking at it that way, others as a great opportunity to get a cool camera and a free copy of $995 Resolve.

It's been characterized as "the race to the bottom," and as you say, it seems no one is safe from taking part - AVID Symphony at $999, Autodesk Smoke $3500, BM Resolve $0.

David Roth Weiss
ProMax Systems
Burbank
DRW@ProMax.com
http://www.ProMax.com
Sales | Integration | Support


David is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.


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Walter Soyka
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:00:07 am

[Andrew Richards] "Terence Curren said he tried to line up someone, anyone, using Premiere Pro for film or TV work to come to this year's pre-NAB Editor's Lounge. But he said he couldn't, even after calling Adobe. Was Team Coco unavailable?"

Maybe the folks from Monsters, Social Network, Hugo, Act of Valor and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo were all unavailable?

Premiere Pro appeared in various capacities in all these workflows. It is certainly making inroads.



[Andrew Richards] "What gives? If every film and TV pro is flocking back to Avid, why are they back in the red? Was everyone waiting for CS6 to hop to Premiere? Does Smoke 2013 change everything?"

Walking around the Adobe, Autodesk, and Avid booths here at NAB, I am hearing a lot of questions to the demo artists that start with "So I'm using Final Cut 7, and..."

I think a lot of people are still holding on to FCP7 and are just starting to evaluate their options now.



[Andrew Richards] "I feel like this NAB asks more questions than it answers for me. What about you?"

True -- but it's still pretty early for answers. Apple and Avid have already played their hands with major updates, FCPX and MC/Symphony 6, respectively. Adobe and Autodesk have now played theirs with their own major updates, CS6 and Smoke 2013 -- neither of which are shipping yet.

Once all the cards are on the table later this year, the market can start picking winners and losers. We've still got months of fodder for discussion here, if not a few years. I'd be very surprised if the bulk of FCP7 refugees all chose the same new NLE.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:10:50 pm

[Walter Soyka] "I think a lot of people are still holding on to FCP7 and are just starting to evaluate their options now."

[Chris Kenny] "What I see is that FCP 7 and Avid projects are coming through in about the same ratios they did before FCP X."

I concur with these statements.

For all the rhetoric in this forum and elsewhere about anxiety and emotion, what I've seen is that most have just continued using FCP7 and their systems from last year (including some FCP6 systems). I suspect the next 12 months will see many more decisions and system changes now that all of the cards are on the table (or soon to be).

Franz.


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Chris Harlan
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:16:24 pm

[Walter Soyka] "I think a lot of people are still holding on to FCP7 and are just starting to evaluate their options now.
"


Yeah, "the rush back to Avid" for many of my FCP7 co-workers has been in theory only.

[Walter Soyka] "Once all the cards are on the table later this year, the market can start picking winners and losers. We've still got months of fodder for discussion here, if not a few years. I'd be very surprised if the bulk of FCP7 refugees all chose the same new NLE."

I agree, except perhaps regionally. Here in LA the lean to Avid is fairly strong.


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Lance Bachelder
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 5:50:48 pm

Maybe the folks from Monsters, Social Network, Hugo, Act of Valor and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo were all unavailable?

But nine of these shows was "edited" in Premiere, it was just used in the workflow - big difference.

I will say at the Supermeet last night there was a LOT of enthusiasm for both Smoke and Premiere. Sad that when the Adobe guy showed that now when you drop a clip on a new sequence it shows a dialog box almost exactly like FCP7 asking if you want to conform the seq to the media etc. and the crowd went nuts like this was new - kinda reminded of an old Apple NAB presentation. I didn't stick around for the FCPX presentation so no idea what kind of reaction it got.

While Macs and Thunderbolt are big talk at NAB, not much FCPX talk. It's here and there at some booths but nothing like the presence legacy used to
have. Seems like the biggest loser this year is Avid - Smoke just completely killed the Symphony announcement. Apple is the big winner without even being here - with Smoke, OpenCL in CS6, Thunderbolt and FCPX no one I'm talking to is switching platforms because they stopped using legacy FCP.

Lance Bachelder
Writer, Editor, Director
Irvine, California



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Andrew Kimery
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 6:16:13 pm

[Lance Bachelder] "But nine of these shows was "edited" in Premiere, it was just used in the workflow - big difference."

I'd bet Act of Valor was edited on Premiere. Bandito Bros are pretty Adobe-centric.

2.9 GHz 8-core (4,1), FCP 7.0.3, 10.6.6
Blackmagic Multibridge Eclipse (7.9.5)



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Lance Bachelder
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 6:31:29 pm

Act of Valor was cut on Media Composer once they brought in a high-end Editor. Premiere was used heavily in the show for sure including final conform/online from the Avid.

Lance Bachelder
Writer, Editor, Director
Irvine, California



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Shawn Miller
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:03:45 pm

[Lance Bachelder] "Act of Valor was cut on Media Composer once they brought in a high-end Editor."

Fair enough, though Monsters was cut in Premiere. :-)

But to what I believe was Walter's larger point, Premier Pro can be found in high end workflows and on very large projects, so it does seem strange (to me at least) that Terence Curren had a hard time finding someone in film or TV using it... maybe no wanted to admit to using Premiere in their workflows? :-)

Shawn



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Shawn Miller
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 6:22:41 pm

[Lance Bachelder] "But nine of these shows was "edited" in Premiere, it was just used in the workflow - big difference."


Oops, should have mentioned. Both Monstes and Act of Valor were edited on Premiere Pro. I didn't know about "Girl with the Dragon Tatoo". I'll have to check that one out.

http://tv.adobe.com/watch/shooting-and-editing-hdslr-video-using-adobe-tool...

http://tv.adobe.com/watch/customer-stories-video-film-and-audio/monsters/



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David Cherniack
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 6:22:17 pm

[Lance Bachelder] "and the crowd went nuts like this was new"

Isn't that what lots of people tend to do at the supermeet or during MacWorld keynotes? I've neve been to one but I have watched in fascination one or two videos. "And the crowd went nuts," would seem to be their caption.

David
AllinOneFilms.com


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Lance Bachelder
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 6:34:34 pm

Agree - but just silly when a thousand people go nuts for something that has existed in other NLE's for years - like Dynamic Trimming which has been in Media Composer since the 90's... I guess if all you've ever used is Premiere it's a big deal and Adobe has added a lot to like in CS6.

Lance Bachelder
Writer, Editor, Director
Irvine, California



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David Cherniack
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 6:45:54 pm

[Lance Bachelder] "just silly when a thousand people go nuts for something that has existed in other NLE's for years - like Dynamic Trimming which has been in Media Composer since the 90's... I guess if all you've ever used is Premiere it's a big deal and Adobe has added a lot to like in CS6."

Yeah, insularity damns us to ignorance and we become easy marks to be impressed. I keep wowing at the Smoke Wow thread. As I said over there, "I haven't seen so much froth since my last trip to Starbucks." Smoke 2013 may be the greatest thing since Mazola Oil, but we won't really know its limits for another 6-8 months. And the long time Smoke guys are not exactly wow-ing. I guess they may know something that the wow-ers don't.

David
AllinOneFilms.com


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David Roth Weiss
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 8:19:50 pm

[David Cherniack] "Smoke 2013 may be the greatest thing since Mazola Oil, but we won't really know its limits for another 6-8 months. And the long time Smoke guys are not exactly wow-ing. I guess they may know something that the wow-ers don't."

The long-time Smoke experts I spoke with said that Smoke has been dumbed-down, and that many things that were formerly extremely fast and done with just one keyboard command are now slow and require multiple mouse clicks.

It could be that change is simply never easy to accept - it could be that Smoke is really dumbed-down. Who really knows at this point?

David Roth Weiss
ProMax Systems
Burbank
DRW@ProMax.com
http://www.ProMax.com
Sales | Integration | Support


David is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:43:41 pm

I just saw dynamic trimming for the first time in an online tutorial for avid there two months ago - I'll admit, I did yelp a little.

you pretty much immediately get how important a feature the dynamic trimming carry on is.
I also now know to say "burger menu".

http://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos
http://www.ogallchoir.net
promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Lance Bachelder
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 2:00:49 am

The Adobe dynamic trimming and all the new trim tools look pretty good in CS6. If Premiere can stay run smoothly on big projects (like feature films) I'd give it another chance - Adobe really has added a lot to CS6 compared to 5.5.

Old Avid guys call it the "hamburger".

Lance Bachelder
Writer, Editor, Director
Irvine, California



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David Cherniack
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:30:12 am

[Lance Bachelder] " If Premiere can stay run smoothly on big projects (like feature films) I'd give it another chance"

I would describe my experience with a pre-relesse version of PrPro 6.0 on a huge feature doc project with all kinds of material: EX, 5k timelapse still sequences, many varieties of AVCHD, AVC Intra, 2 kinds of consumer camcorder, all different frame rates and sizes, and every one of them contained in a 2 hour HD timeline, as completely stable...as stable as any NLE I've ever experienced.

David
AllinOneFilms.com


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Lance Bachelder
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 2:26:27 pm

That's good news. Thanks for the report.

Lance Bachelder
Writer, Editor, Director
Irvine, California



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Mitch Ives
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:53:26 pm

[Lance Bachelder] "Sad that when the Adobe guy showed that now when you drop a clip on a new sequence it shows a dialog box almost exactly like FCP7 asking if you want to conform the seq to the media etc. and the crowd went nuts like this was new - kinda reminded of an old Apple NAB presentation."

Wow, I had the same reaction... thought I was nuts...

Mitch Ives
Insight Productions Corp.

"Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things." - Winston Churchill


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Daniel Frome
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:52:20 am

It's funny. The "flocking back to Avid" definitely seems to be happening, but they aren't buying Avid's money-maker systems (ISIS, etc), just the edit software.

They need to develop an ISIS that costs the same as one of the edit suites they are used to buying (7k ballpark) that allows people to buy their storage separately. Then it becomes an issue of "instead of an edit suite, we should this avid doohicky for the same price."


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Richard Cardonna
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 1:12:39 pm

Their is always prozac

RC


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John Godwin
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 1:26:39 pm

Yeah, but then there'll be another massive argument about whether the Prozac is actually "Pro"...

Best,
John


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Chris Harlan
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 2:21:38 pm

[John Godwin] "Yeah, but then there'll be another massive argument about whether the Prozac is actually "Pro"...

Best,
John
"


I'm a fully licensed professional, and I am able to tell you officially that that is funny!


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:31:45 pm

[Daniel Frome] "It's funny. The "flocking back to Avid" definitely seems to be happening, but they aren't buying Avid's money-maker systems (ISIS, etc), just the edit software. "

And that certainly seems to be what the financial reports are showing. Some of the analysts I've read said the crossgrade itself may have cost them money on software that isn't very profitable to begin with and loses money at the lower price point.

The brief bump last quarter seems to have been temporary as the Bunim Murray's of the world switched. I suspect Avid is hoping to grab a few more with Symphony (hoping some of the crossgrades follow with big hardware purchases).

I really think that baring a major rethinking of business strategy, Avid is a sinking ship. The ship sinks very slowly because, based on the reports I've read, they cary no significant debt. That does buy them time though. Given that this has been going on for years, they don't seem to be utilizing that time. Their attempts to "right the ship" seem to be some tweaks to the business model when they do need something more radical.



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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 2:40:19 pm

[Andrew Richards] "Walster Biscardi reports FCPX is still very much instrumentum non grata and that Apple is either On Notice or Dead To Me for most editors he's spoken with at NAB.

Terence Curren said he tried to line up someone, anyone, using Premiere Pro for film or TV work to come to this year's pre-NAB Editor's Lounge. But he said he couldn't, even after calling Adobe. Was Team Coco unavailable?

Avid says they are losing money again, and it is the "creative enthusiast" market that is hurting them the most.

What gives? If every film and TV pro is flocking back to Avid, why are they back in the red? Was everyone waiting for CS6 to hop to Premiere? Does Smoke 2013 change everything?"


We provide dailies, color and other post services to a lot of indie features, mostly NYC based indie features. The Internet narrative about FCP's fall and Premiere's rise has no relationship to what I'm seeing on the ground. What I see is that FCP 7 and Avid projects are coming through in about the same ratios they did before FCP X. For all that people talk up Premiere as the solution to everything in various online forums, we have yet to even receive an inquiry about whether we can handle a project edited in it. We also haven't received inquiries about finishing projects cut in FCP X, but in my capacity as our resident workflow geek several clients/contacts have at least asked for my opinion about it, which they haven't for Premiere.

IMO the framing in the discussion of FCP X has always been wrong. It was viewed as an instant failure because it wasn't a drop-in replacement for FCP 7. But it's not FCP 7's successor in any technical sense. It's a new product. FCP X is properly viewed as a promising challenger that needs some time to mature, and I think people would have recognized this had it been from a company other than Apple or had Apple's messaging been better. Viewed in this light, consider the fact that it's radically cheaper than alternative apps and in many ways easier to use, it adopts interesting new paradigms for organizing media and sequences, it has been updated on a very aggressive schedule, and it's backed by a company with virtually unlimited resources. Does this really seem like an app doomed to failure in the long run? In a certain light it seems to have better odds than Premiere -- yes, neither app has really broken into the market yet, but Premiere has been around much longer -- it has less of an excuse.

I find the idea that we're going to see a meaningful resurgence of Avid to be highly unlikely. Will some people switch as a consequence of FCP X? Sure. But -- and I realize that people who've been using Avid products for the last decade or more can't, for the most part, really see this -- Media Composer is virtually impenetrable to new users. We've seen this in-house. People with FCP 7 experience can pretty much just figure out FCP X, but are completely lost in Media Composer. I don't think this is because of similarities between FCP 7 and FCP X, because there barely are any. Basic things (like, say, how to get a folder full of natively encoded media files into a bin so you can edit with them) are just bizarrely counterintuitive in Media Composer. As we saw with 'classic' FCP, the way to succeed in the long run is to get the 'kids' using your product today. Having user interface that new users bounce off of is fatal in the long run.

To sumarize my view of the market... I don't think Apple's "missteps" will do more than slightly delay Avid's long, slow decline. I think that continued Avid decline and the rough introduction of FCP X will give Premiere an opening. I think FCP X itself is maturing quite rapidly and its price and easy app store distribution will make it the go-to option for many new editors. My guess is that in five years FCP X will be a major force, mostly battling it out with Premiere, and Avid will have further retreated into specialty niches.

And Smoke? Honestly, I want to find some excuse for us to buy it -- it's now in that sort of ideal price range where it's cheap enough for us as a small post house, but expensive enough that most people won't buy it for themselves, meaning some people might conceivably give us money because we have it and they don't. But I can't quite figure out what we'd use it for. If we did e.g. in-house end-to-end post production on music videos I can see how it would be an extremely useful tool. But for the work we presently do it seems like its benefits over our current tools would be fairly marginal. I don't think we're alone in this -- Smoke seems like a tool that's insanely useful to a particular slice of the market and nearly useless to the rest.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:06:10 pm

[Chris Kenny] "For all that people talk up Premiere as the solution to everything in various online forums, we have yet to even receive an inquiry about whether we can handle a project edited in it."

Most people I know were waiting for PPro 6 to make a decision. I'd give it another year to see if this holds true.

[Chris Kenny] "Viewed in this light, consider the fact that it's radically cheaper than alternative apps and in many ways easier to use, it adopts interesting new paradigms for organizing media and sequences, it has been updated on a very aggressive schedule, and it's backed by a company with virtually unlimited resources. Does this really seem like an app doomed to failure in the long run?"

If new paradigms were a precursor to success then Sony Vegas would be a market leader. It's not nearly as cheap as Lightworks, which is free. Most of it's updates were merely to fix stuff it was supposed to have in the first place. The virtually unlimited resources of it's parent company are not aimed at this market at all and that same parent is infamous for it's policy of software infanticide. In other words - who knows?

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:56:06 pm

[Herb Sevush] "If new paradigms were a precursor to success then Sony Vegas would be a market leader."

It probably should have been, on the merits. But Sony didn't really have much clout in the software market (Apple does), and the discontinuation of 'classic' Final Cut has created a vacuum that didn't previously exist, making it easier for new products (a category in which I include FCP X) to succeed.

[Herb Sevush] "It's not nearly as cheap as Lightworks, which is free."

I'm keeping a close eye on Lightworks, but I'm skeptical if development of a serious NLE can really be funded in the way they propose. This isn't the first time we've seen a business model in which the primary product is given away for free and the developer tries to make money from extras, and success with this model is quite spotty.

[Herb Sevush] "Most of it's updates were merely to fix stuff it was supposed to have in the first place."

This implies that Apple intended to ship these features in the first release but was unable to complete them in time. There's zero evidence of this. Apple has an established pattern of minimalistic initial releases, and it's consequently probable that the minimalistic initial release of FCP X was deliberate. So, we have Apple shipping a free update with major new features within 12 months of the initial release -- and planning additional major new features this year, probably within 18 months of the initial release, and probably also free.

It's always important to ask yourself if you're being mislead by trying to fit facts to a particular narrative. One good way to do this is to ask "If the same result had been achieved in a different way, would I have a more positive or negative view?" In this case, consider the fact that FCP X has a bunch of features FCP 7 never had. What if FCP X had shipped with broadcast monitoring, stem exports, XML and multicam (which it all now has), but things like tagging, auditions, automated shot analysis, and 4K support had been subsequently added over the past 12 months? Would people be claiming there hadn't been rapid significant feature additions because FCP X was supposed to have those features in the first place? I somehow doubt it. Yet logically there's no difference here -- either way Apple's accomplishments to date are the same.

[Herb Sevush] "The virtually unlimited resources of it's parent company are not aimed at this market at all and that same parent is infamous for it's policy of software infanticide. In other words - who knows?"

The modern Apple rarely kills is own in-house products (acquisitions are another story), and there is no particular indication that FCP X is being starved for developer resources.

--
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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 6:35:05 pm

[Chris Kenny] "the discontinuation of 'classic' Final Cut has created a vacuum that didn't previously exist, making it easier for new products (a category in which I include FCP X) to succeed."

It has created a vacuum for a specific type of editor, not necessarily one interested in new paradigms. The companies poised to fill that vacuum are making it part of their marketing approach to emphasize how uninterested they are in creating new paradigms - to wit this from Autodesk:

(Smoke has) "An intuitive all-in-one creative workflow that combines track-based editorial, industry standard editing conventions and proven Autodesk creative tools."

Translation: we are nothing like FCPX, so it's safe for you to buy us. We don't have a magnetic timeline, we do have tracks, we do have source viewers, and a project is not an event and a timeline is not a project.

This article was not addressed to this Cow forum, it was addressed to the editing public at large, and it reflects Audtodesk's impression of what the world wide editing audience is thinking at the moment.

[Chris Kenny] "I'm keeping a close eye on Lightworks, but I'm skeptical if development of a serious NLE can really be funded in the way they propose."

I'm skeptical as well, but no more skeptical than I am that Apple won't toss the whole pro apps market to the wayside. Skepticism is good, but I apply it to all.

[Chris Kenny] "This implies that Apple intended to ship these features in the first release but was unable to complete them in time. There's zero evidence of this."

I would say the paper they published within days of the release outlining the features they were planning but hadn't had time to implement, like multicam, was plenty of evidence. They gave a timeline, which to give them credit they've mostly hit, of exactly which missing features would be restored by when. Do you think they just made up this list in the few days after the release. I don't.

[Chris Kenny] "What if FCP X had shipped with broadcast monitoring, stem exports, XML and multicam (which it all now has), but things like tagging, auditions, automated shot analysis, and 4K support had been subsequently added over the past 12 months? Would people be claiming there hadn't been rapid significant feature additions because FCP X was supposed to have those features in the first place?"

The missing features were standard to the industry and their lack crippled the product for many workflows. These items you mention are nice additions but, other than 4K support, describe one project that couldn't be completed without them. They made a car with a great GPS and autoparking but it lacked headlights and breaks. If your Chrysler you don't get a lot of love for finally putting the breaks back.

You can argue that X had so many innovations when it first came out that spending the next year or two on basic maintenance and functionality still leaves it the most innovative NLE out there. It might be true, but I don't see it succeeding the way you do. That might be because it does not work for my particular work flow, I'll give you that. I do know that I speak to many editors and all of them have written X off with the same line - "maybe in a few years."

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 12:04:43 am

[Herb Sevush] "It has created a vacuum for a specific type of editor, not necessarily one interested in new paradigms. The companies poised to fill that vacuum are making it part of their marketing approach to emphasize how uninterested they are in creating new paradigms - to wit this from Autodesk:"

Apple says there are now more users using FCP X than FCP 7, and the latest SCRI report shows their share of new NLE installs hasn't collapsed -- it's actually ticked up a couple of points. The logical conclusion is that FCP X is a) actually being pretty widely used (far more widely than Vegas ever was) and b) actually is a suitable solution for a lot of FCP 7 customers.

I think FCP X's detractors might have to start acknowledging the possibility that Apple might have known some things about how people were using FCP that weren't obvious to them. It's quite probable Apple had data along the lines of (and I'm making up data here, but I suspect the general impression conveyed by the numbers is correct) "10% of users export XML files, 5% export EDL files, 25% use multicam, 15% use broadcast monitoring -- and given the overlap, we can leave all of these things out of our first version and still address 65% of the FCP 7 user base". At which point why should they have held it off of the market for an additional year (particularly with FCP 7 getting so long in the tooth) just to address the remaining 35%?

[Herb Sevush] "This article was not addressed to this Cow forum, it was addressed to the editing public at large, and it reflects Audtodesk's impression of what the world wide editing audience is thinking at the moment. "

Smoke is a fairly specialized tool. It has zero relevance to literally 99% of the "editing public at large".

[Herb Sevush] "I would say the paper they published within days of the release outlining the features they were planning but hadn't had time to implement, like multicam, was plenty of evidence."

I'm sure they were always planning to implement these things -- I said this myself when people claimed Apple was "backtracking" by agreeing to implement these features. But it's standard practice to have a roadmap that goes out beyond your initial release -- "planning to implement X" doesn't mean "planned to ship X in 1.0 but screwed up".

[Herb Sevush] "They made a car with a great GPS and autoparking but it lacked headlights and breaks."

This is a bad analogy. See the top of this reply. A car without headlights and breaks is useless to essentially everyone. FCP X turns out to have been useful to a large fraction of the FCP user base. Not most folks working on features or in broadcast, but those folks are a tiny fraction of the market.

And really, Apple has plugged the gaps pretty fast. To focus on my segment for a second, you could absolutely cut an indie feature in FCP X today. If you took it to a large post house to grade they'd probably look at you like you were nuts, but if you brought it to us we could have it in Resolve (with your primary grades intact!) inside of an hour I think.

--
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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 12:50:49 am

[Chris Kenny] "The logical conclusion is that FCP X is a) actually being pretty widely used (far more widely than Vegas ever was)"

Damming with faint praise. Vegas is an example of a new paradigm that never made a dent in the market.

[Chris Kenny] " b) actually is a suitable solution for a lot of FCP 7 customers."

Actually we don't know what those numbers mean. We never did before. I never trusted things like Legacy had "2 million seats." Where did that number come from? How many were upgrades, how many were abaondoned? What I am confident in is market awareness. FCP Legacy had plenty. FCPX has a curiosity factor, but in my small circle it doesn't exist as a viable option. I know more people using Edius than using X. I am aware that I am not the center of the editing universe, but I put zero faith in any of the numbers quoted, till they define their terms and show how they arrived at them.

[Chris Kenny] "I think FCP X's detractors might have to start acknowledging the possibility that Apple might have known some things about how people were using FCP that weren't obvious to them."

I never doubted that Apple knew the market they were aiming at, I simply concluded that it wasn't me or mine.

[Chris Kenny] "I suspect the general impression conveyed by the numbers is correct) "10% of users export XML files, 5% export EDL files, 25% use multicam, 15% use broadcast monitoring -- and given the overlap, we can leave all of these things out of our first version and still address 65% of the FCP 7 user base"

If true, and it well might be, then it was an incredibly stupid business decision to release X and EOL Legacy at the same moment. They managed to piss off the most vocal and influential 35% of their user base. Not all users are equal. They would have been better off pissing off the other 65%, who would fall in line anyhow, rather than the influential few. I don't think they really liked the Conan segment, do you?

[Chris Kenny] "A car without headlights and breaks is useless to essentially everyone. FCP X turns out to have been useful to a large fraction of the FCP user base."

Not in it's first release. For Bill Davis, yes. But many other current X'ers couldn't use it at first. I stand by my statement that the initial release was useless for a large portion of the pro user base, even if they liked the paradigm. This has changed with subsequent releases.

One of the big differences between Legacy and X is that Legacy was solely for the pro market. That doesn't mean that X is not "pro" but it does mean that there are a lot of hobbyists that use it as well. That tends to skew arguments about relative strength in the pro market.

[Chris Kenny] "Apple has plugged the gaps pretty fast. "

Yes they have, much quicker than I believed they would.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 1:19:35 am

[Herb Sevush] "I never doubted that Apple knew the market they were aiming at, I simply concluded that it wasn't me or mine. "

I don't recall your specific position on the FCP X release last year, but what I'm addressing with this argument is the notion that it was valid to draw significant conclusions about Apple's long-term interest in high-end customers from the feature set of the initial release. Shipping an initial release designed to serve your median customer as soon as possible (rather than waiting until you can also serve high-end niches) is just good business sense -- it doesn't really imply a lack of interest in serving outliers later.

[Herb Sevush] "They managed to piss off the most vocal and influential 35% of their user base. Not all users are equal. They would have been better off pissing off the other 65%, who would fall in line anyhow, rather than the influential few. "

I'm not sure this is right at all. I think our hypothetical 35% (really if we're exclusively talking about broadcast/post people it's probably much less than that) are more vocal, but I think the weight of that mass of users on the other side counts for more in the long run.

[Herb Sevush] "One of the big differences between Legacy and X is that Legacy was solely for the pro market. That doesn't mean that X is not "pro" but it does mean that there are a lot of hobbyists that use it as well. That tends to skew arguments about relative strength in the pro market."

Meh. The lines between "hobbyist" and "professional" are really, really vague these days. Are you a hobbyist if you use FCP X to cut comedic web sorts you shoot with your friends? How about if you make money from ads on your site? Does it matter how much money?

Or how about if you work for a post facility in some technical capacity, but cut personal projects in FCP X on the side?

Or take the indie film world. Say an individual with a day job that has nothing to do with filmmaking puts together a self-funded feature project, cuts it himself, gets into a festival, wins a prize and gets a distribution deal. Is this person still a hobbyist? If not, exactly when do they stop being a hobbyist? If so, are they still a hobbyist if they do the same thing a couple of more times?

The "hobbyist" vs. "pro" distinction has gotten really complicated. There are no rules anymore.

--
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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 4:32:00 am

[Chris Kenny] "what I'm addressing with this argument is the notion that it was valid to draw significant conclusions about Apple's long-term interest in high-end customers from the feature set of the initial release."

Remember, this is about both the release of X and the simultaneous EOL of Legacy. From that launch I can only see 2 possibilities. Either they thought it wouldn't piss off these high end customers, in which case they're stupid; or they didn't mind pissing them off because they're not key to their vision of the market. In either case I think the conclusions were and are valid.

[Chris Kenny] "I think our hypothetical 35% (really if we're exclusively talking about broadcast/post people it's probably much less than that) are more vocal, but I think the weight of that mass of users on the other side counts for more in the long run."

The 35% is your number: [Chris Kenny]At which point why should they have held it off of the market for an additional year (particularly with FCP 7 getting so long in the tooth) just to address the remaining 35%?

The 65% count for more only if your no longer interested in the high end. Kids go to film school to make movies, not to post cat videos on Youtube. Apple courted filmmakers for their influence, they obviously no longer care as much. I'm not saying it was a financial mistake, but I am saying they took their leadership role in that particular market and dumped it in the toilet. Believing it will come back might be a mistake. It might not.

[Chris Kenny] "Are you a hobbyist if you use FCP X to cut comedic web sorts you shoot with your friends? "

Yes

[Chris Kenny] "How about if you make money from ads on your site? Does it matter how much money?"

Not a hobbyist and it doesn't matter how much you make, it's the intent to make the money that counts.

[Chris Kenny] "how about if you work for a post facility in some technical capacity, but cut personal projects in FCP X on the side?"

If your a professional editor then personal projects are part of your craft. If your an IT guy cutting video at home your a hobbyist. If your an audio guy it would depend on what and why you were cutting - a vacation video = hobbyist, something that interests you and you see it as an extension of your work, then professional.

[Chris Kenny] "Say an individual with a day job that has nothing to do with filmmaking puts together a self-funded feature project, cuts it himself, gets into a festival, wins a prize and gets a distribution deal. Is this person still a hobbyist?"

No.

[Chris Kenny] "exactly when do they stop being a hobbyist?"

When it takes over their life.

Your a hobbyist if you don't edit as part of your livelihood. Your an artist if your compulsed to edit for your own purposes, and it doesn't matter if you make money or not. Your a professional if you edit for pay. I don't find it vague at all.

[Chris Kenny] "There are no rules anymore."

There are as many rules now as ever, you just might not know them.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 3:59:39 pm

[Chris Kenny] "IMO the framing in the discussion of FCP X has always been wrong. It was viewed as an instant failure because it wasn't a drop-in replacement for FCP 7. But it's not FCP 7's successor in any technical sense. It's a new product. FCP X is properly viewed as a promising challenger that needs some time to mature,"

It would seem only "the old guard" insist that it's a failed replacement for FCP7. Of course it's not in heavy use yet, it's new and still under serious (and rapid) development. That there was standing room only crowds during the NAB presentations around it, show serious interest. People are watching the development very closely to determine if/when they can safely jump in.

That there's so much negative response is about currently running facilities who can't consider it . . . currently. It seems all the big A companies have burned people at some point. At the point when one sees a potential ROI they reconsider some years down the road. There's no reason for it to be any different with Apple.


[Chris Kenny] "But -- and I realize that people who've been using Avid products for the last decade or more can't, for the most part, really see this -- Media Composer is virtually impenetrable to new users. We've seen this in-house."

As someone who used Avid for more than 10 years as an editor and later as an engineer and trainer, it's related to why I won't go back. Even knowing it, I found it very "unfriendly" in the way it handled many tasks. Of course right now, without the FCPX being alternative, some are struggling through it again. But just as their profit bump seems to be temporary, I think so to is the interest in Avid in the GROWING market (not the niche). It's one reason (of several) why there's so much interest in Adobe. The fact that Premiere hasn't been a big player in the "pro" market may be a plus in that it seems the "prosumer" finds it friendly to use.

[Chris Kenny] "I think FCP X itself is maturing quite rapidly and its price and easy app store distribution will make it the go-to option for many new editors. My guess is that in five years FCP X will be a major force, mostly battling it out with Premiere, and Avid will have further retreated into specialty niches."

I agree. NEW EDITORS will be key. FCPX is friendly to people who don't have prior knowledge of other interfaces or, at least, don't have issues grasping the new way of doing things. It's people coming into the industry and people looking for low cost startup who will be more likely to adopt. It's an attrition battle that I suspect Apple feels they will win.

While the original formula for legacy FCP success isn't exactly the same, the combination of cost and user friendliness helped its success even when it wasn't close to Avid's feature set (and never matched it in some areas like Trimming and maybe Media Management). FCPX will creep up the later over time. We can see though, that Adobe is watching it closely and responding . . . something that Avid never did well.



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Chris Harlan
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:10:28 pm

[Chris Kenny] "What I see is that FCP 7 and Avid projects are coming through in about the same ratios they did before FCP X. For all that people talk up Premiere as the solution to everything in various online forums, we have yet to even receive an inquiry about whether we can handle a project edited in it. We also haven't received inquiries about finishing projects cut in FCP X, but in my capacity as our resident workflow geek several clients/contacts have at least asked for my opinion about it, which they haven't for Premiere.
"


That's largely what I'm seeing too, other than--because I work in a gfx intensive advertising market--I've had maybe two questions about FCP X and a dozen or so about Premiere. The Premiere questions come from AE designers, who feel their lives would be a tad easier and their power base more consolidated if Premiere became the shop NLE.

[Chris Kenny] " FCP X is properly viewed as a promising challenger that needs some time to mature, and I think people would have recognized this had it been from a company other than Apple or had Apple's messaging been better."

Here, we disagree. I instead question whether it would exist a year after its intro if it had been from someone else other than Apple. BUT, I have come to agree that it has its uses, and that it should not be judged as a replacement for FCP 7, even though you can hardly blame those of users who did for doing so.


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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:27:07 pm

[Chris Harlan] "Here, we disagree. I instead question whether it would exist a year after its intro if it had been from someone else other than Apple."

FCP X was designed to appeal to a much larger market than is mostly represented in these forums, and it seems fairly plausible that it's actually quite successful in that market. As far as I can tell, Apple is doing the 'appeal to the low-end, then move upmarket' thing. People 'upmarket' are judging it as a failure because the 'move upmarket' part of that hasn't happened quite yet (though with respect to features, it's progressing rapidly), but at this stage it could only be definitively said to have failed if the 'appeal to the low-end' part weren't working. And that part seems to be working. There's absolutely no reason to believe FCP X is a commercial failure. It's the top-grossing app in the Mac App Store (following Lion, but Lion isn't actually an 'app'), which means it's probably one of the most successful apps on the platform. And the current version has a 4-star rating there -- many people seem to be buying the app and liking it.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Chris Harlan
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:36:44 pm

[Chris Kenny] " to appeal to a much larger market than is mostly represented in these forums, and it seems fairly plausible that it's actually quite successful in that market. As far as I can tell, Apple is doing the 'appeal to the low-end, then move upmarket' thing. People 'upmarket' are judging it as a failure because the 'move upmarket' part of that hasn't happened quite yet (though with respect to features, it's progressing rapidly), but at this stage it could only be definitively said to have failed if the 'appeal to the low-end' part weren't working. And that part seems to be working. There's absolutely no reason to believe FCP X is a commercial failure. It's the top-grossing app in the Mac App Store (following Lion, but Lion isn't actually an 'app'), which means it's probably one of the most successful apps on the platform. And the current version has a 4-star rating there -- many people seem to be buying the app and liking it."

I agree with everything you are saying. I was simply responding to your statement "I think people would have recognized this had it been from a company other than Apple." My guess is that if it had been released by anyone other than Apple, it wouldn't have been particularly noticed.


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Andrew Kimery
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:38:45 pm

[Daniel Frome] "It's funny. The "flocking back to Avid" definitely seems to be happening, but they aren't buying Avid's money-maker systems (ISIS, etc), just the edit software."

I'm sure places that are large enough to be in ISIS territory either already have one or already have a large enough data infrastructure in place that changes on this scale take a couple of years to implement.



[Chris Kenny] "IMO the framing in the discussion of FCP X has always been wrong. It was viewed as an instant failure because it wasn't a drop-in replacement for FCP 7. But it's not FCP 7's successor in any technical sense. It's a new product. FCP X is properly viewed as a promising challenger that needs some time to mature, and I think people would have recognized this had it been from a company other than Apple or had Apple's messaging been better."

Maybe that's why Apple killed FCP 7 right off the bat? They knew that few people, given the choice, would start using FCP X in any meaningful way if FCP 7 was still around.


[Chris Kenny] "As we saw with 'classic' FCP, the way to succeed in the long run is to get the 'kids' using your product today. Having user interface that new users bounce off of is fatal in the long run."

I think that's only part of it. I'd be very surprised if having FCP classic used on high end productions, and having very successful people evangelizing for it, didn't play a large role in creating a halo effect. At $295 + 4 years of free updates Avid's EDU license is pretty freaking compelling. Sure, the UI has a steeper learning curve but if you want to edit movies and the editors you want to be like use Avid...

A couple of NAB's ago Avid showed a prototype of what it thinks cloud-based editing could be and they arguably have the best editing software on the iPad right now so who knows where the future takes us. Maybe Avid knows that its 'local hardware' products (I/O cards, ISIS) aren't going to be enough anymore so they start offering cloud base solutions at both enterprise and boutique levels.


[Chris Kenny] "The modern Apple rarely kills is own in-house products (acquisitions are another story), and there is no particular indication that FCP X is being starved for developer resources."

While there is of course no direct evidence of the FCPX team not getting much love, Apple is known for keeping its teams lean and mean and moving them around to the products that need the most support as opposed to expanding during busy times. Apple delayed development of Leopard to put more resources towards the iPhone launch so I don't think they are beyond starving FCP X development for, well, just about anything iDevice or Cloud related. I think the very un-Apple-like hijacking of the SuperMeet last year and the launch itself is evidence that things weren't running smoothly when it came to FCPX (at least at that time).


-Andrew

2.9 GHz 8-core (4,1), FCP 7.0.3, 10.6.6
Blackmagic Multibridge Eclipse (7.9.5)



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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 12:15:34 am

[Andrew Kimery] "I think that's only part of it. I'd be very surprised if having FCP classic used on high end productions, and having very successful people evangelizing for it, didn't play a large role in creating a halo effect.

Sure, but that came later. Murch didn't edit Cold Mountain on FCP until 2003, four years after it was introduced. FCP X could have high-profile champions as well in another three years.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Joseph Owens
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 5:04:06 pm

[Chris Kenny] "And Smoke? Honestly, I want to find some excuse for us to buy it -- it's now in that sort of ideal price range where it's cheap enough for us as a small post house, but expensive enough that most people won't buy it for themselves, meaning some people might conceivably give us money because we have it and they don't. But I can't quite figure out what we'd use it for."

You said it, brother. It's why I started the "Does this change anything" thread. Looking for the same excuse. Let me know if you come up with it.

Bottom line, in its case, seems to be converging toward the fact that it would still need to support some kind of round tripping and shared metadata because I use MochaPro for perspective tracking and Resolve for grade. And even from what the evangelists are demonstrating and blogging about, the Smoke tools aren't in the same league. The only thing I can see it useful for is its integration of true 3D compositing and then it becomes just another graphics/composite tool -- and although Shake is now well beyond its best-before date, I still find it amazingly useful. Its my #1 diagnostic go-to simply because it is so close to the core code -- I'm not interested in glossy interfaces, holistic databases, or any of that ultra-sophistication that only serves to hide basic functionality. You could say that about the AvidMediaFiles source media model, which has been complained about ad nauseum the same way that Final Cut's "anywhere" media management causes clips to go offline. If that's a deal-breaker for picking an NLE... alrighty then.

BTW, I'm getting really tired of this "where the puck is going to be". Its just a bad analogy, of the many, casually re-purposed by someone who apparently doesn't/didn't understand ice hockey in much depth. If you were to check out my geographical location, you would see that the guy who actually coined the phrase played here for quite a while. And while its nice to think that it alludes to some kind of prescience or Hidden Understanding, you also have to comprehend the degree to which the game bent to his individual force of gravity, that was like the Einsteinian "warped space-time" which really means that the puck position, like gravity, was a tendency that found Mr. Gretzky, and why not if you are the leading scorer of all time? I accept there is some Heisenberg uncertainty in the causality exchange, but pretending to know how the great debate of how media production will be executed in the future is making some hard-to-support assumptions.

Off-topic, of course, but while on the ice, its profoundly discouraging that the game in question has evolved to deal with the "skill" players with a strategy we know now to be called "concussion". But that's Darwin, right?

"Are we not men?" Arrrghh.

jPo

You mean "Old Ben"? Ben Kenobi?


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Richard Herd
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 6:54:24 pm

[Joseph Owens] "this "where the puck is going to be"."

What that really means is "Give me the ball/puck at the buzzer beater because no one else is as good as me." True for Gretsky, of course, same with Michael Jordan.


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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 12:28:28 am

[Joseph Owens] "And while its nice to think that it alludes to some kind of prescience or Hidden Understanding, you also have to comprehend the degree to which the game bent to his individual force of gravity, that was like the Einsteinian "warped space-time" which really means that the puck position, like gravity, was a tendency that found Mr. Gretzky, and why not if you are the leading scorer of all time?"

This raises another interesting point as well. It's not like Apple just passively observes where markets are headed and figures out how to get in front of them. Take what they did with the iPhone -- they looked at a market where their traditional strengths weren't necessarily going to be useful and asked themselves "How can we ship a product that is based on our traditional strengths, and bends the entire market toward valuing products built along those lines?" The abrupt discontinuation of FCP 7, some of the features Apple has chosen to leave out of FCP X (e.g. deck control), the adoption of Thunderbolt, FCP X's pricing and distribution model -- Apple is up to some hardcore market engineering here.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Simon Ubsdell
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 7:52:25 pm

[Chris Kenny] "Smoke seems like a tool that's insanely useful to a particular slice of the market and nearly useless to the rest."

I think that sums it up perfectly. I don't think the new price point reallt changes that except that a few more people will dive in and buy it ... and then wonder why they did.

Simon Ubsdell
http://www.tokyo-uk.com


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Paul Jay
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 4:56:44 pm

The new Smoke is Mac only.
Ofcourse because Apple is a consumer platform.

Sarkasm off.


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Juan Morales
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 6:26:01 pm

My prediction: within now and 1 year, Avid will be bought by Grant Petty/Blackmagic...

Anyone thinks the same?!?


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 6:35:02 pm

[Juan Morales] "My prediction: within now and 1 year, Avid will be bought by Grant Petty/Blackmagic...

Anyone thinks the same?!?"


I've said this a while back on this forum. I think it's "almost" inevitable.
Maybe we need to look at Blackmagic's business model compared to Avid to understand why.



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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 2:13:10 am

[Juan Morales] "My prediction: within now and 1 year, Avid will be bought by Grant Petty/Blackmagic...

Anyone thinks the same?!?"


Are we talking about the whole company, or the video division? If the latter, the main thing that makes me question this is whether Blackmagic would want the tech. In terms of internals (rendering engine, video I/O, etc.) they've got a solid foundation already in Resolve, and in terms of user interface Media Composer is a twisty labyrinth that's only comfortably navigable to people who've spent years learning its myriad passages. Buying Media Composer seems like it would mostly be about buying a user base. But the user base in question is slowly shrinking, and the main reason it's not shrinking faster is because of a conservatism that would make it very hard for anyone who bought the product to quickly transition users to a product with more mass market (and -- critically -- new user) appeal.

If we're talking about the whole company, I'd imagine such an acquisition would be more about the audio side of things.

Also, Blackmagic being a privately held company (as far as I can tell) it's hard to see if the financials of such a deal would be at all plausible.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Michael Gissing
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 2:40:58 am

[Juan Morales] "My prediction: within now and 1 year, Avid will be bought by Grant Petty/Blackmagic...
Anyone thinks the same?!?"

I'm with Chris. I can't see what is in it for them. Why do they need an editing system? Then again why did they need to build a camera? It makes a little more sense. Blackmagic may be looking at a finishinf sytem by extending Resolve into something like Smoke perhaps and if thney made it cross platform and matched or bettered the price then sure - I could see something in that, But buying a company that is not exactly profitable and competing against Adobe, Autodesk and to some extent Final Cut, not exactly a niche that has a lot of room for mass sales and profits. Recent moves like Teranex and da Vinci show an interest in finishing rather than nuts and bolts editing.

They would also need to then support AJA and Matrox or alienate the growing user AVID base. That would be interesting.


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 2:50:05 pm

[Michael Gissing] "I can't see what is in it for them. Why do they need an editing system? Then again why did they need to build a camera?"

I'm not quite sure what their business model is yet but given their moves over the last couple of years I can easily see them buying an NLE. They bought DaVinci after all.

I think they're trying to create an end to end ecosystem. Right now an NLE is one of the missing pieces.
As to some of the comments:
The interface. Companies by software re design the interfaces all the time. Even the new release of Resolve seems to have significant interface changes (to my eye).
Customer base. I don't doubt many Media Composer facilities are using Resolve in their workflow. ProTools too of course which is why Avid MIGHT be of value. When you consider their I/O devices, the switcher, their recording device, their move into acquisition (camera), it REALLY seems like they're looking like they're creating a workflow monopoly of sorts. They may be aiming to offer a complete facility build.
The other Avid products. I'd bet a bunch might be sold off or EOLd. That's the nature of business. Looking at Avid, they may have to do that if they plan on surviving. One thing seems apparent to me. If Avid sits still, they're going to be finished sooner or later. The question for me is do MC/Symphony have some value in the market? Of course maybe if some see it as shrinking value it may well simply go away.

So, to me, it's either Avid rights the ship soon, they go under, they got sold. The question is what happens to MC/Symphony. If Avid rights the ship it may include a consolidation of MC/Symphony and that may be the plan with the current Symphony crossgrade upgrade.



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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 3:25:10 pm

[Craig Seeman] "If Avid sits still, they're going to be finished sooner or later. The question for me is do MC/Symphony have some value in the market? Of course maybe if some see it as shrinking value it may well simply go away."

The big question is, are Media Composer and Symphony still products that can attract new users at a rate at least sufficient to replace users who switch to other NLEs or decide they'd rather grow organic heirloom tomatoes than edit video? And I mean real new users, not FCP 7 defectors -- to the extent that occurs it's a one-time bonus, not a path to long-term viability.

I just have trouble seeing it. About the only new editors I can imagine adopting Avid's tools are film school students who buy into the "It's more professional" angle. That's a market, but I don't think it's much of one, numerically. Some established post houses might slowly add new seats, but traditional post houses are one of the top ten dying industries, so that's not exactly a growth opportunity. What's more, Avid's traditional pricing on MC/Symphony is clearly unsustainable in a world where FCP X is $300 and many get Premiere 'for free' because it comes with a copy of Creative Suite they'd have bought anyway. So as bad as things are now, these product lines could be looking at significant revenue declines.

[Craig Seeman] "If Avid rights the ship it may include a consolidation of MC/Symphony and that may be the plan with the current Symphony crossgrade upgrade."

Yeah, they'd be crazy not to consolidate.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 4:00:38 pm

[Chris Kenny] "The big question is, are Media Composer and Symphony still products that can attract new users at a rate at least sufficient to replace users who switch to other NLEs"

That's a very good question of course. All I can do is speculate but given the aggressive pricing and the EOL of FCP7, it's share may be growing. It's possible it's only growing with the "old guard" though.

I think what a lot of people on this forum may be missing is that FCPX and some iMacs might be the "bargain" choice for a startup facility or for the person starting out on their own and growing into a facility in a couple of years. Interesting that that's much how Evan Schachtmen started and it may be way he's gung ho on it. He may see Apple doing that all over again. Over time the new generation will supplant the old. Apple will grow by attrition as the "opponents" age and retire (both equipment and personnel).

This may also mean that MC/Symphony are viable short term acquisitions, to be discarded as a company develops their own replacement. I'm just speculating here on that there may still be some value much like a sports team acquires an aging star with a few years left.

[Chris Kenny] "traditional post houses are one of the top ten dying industries, so that's not exactly a growth opportunity."

I STRONGLY agree with you on that. Maybe it's just my impression but I'm not sure if people in this forum see that.

That's, in part, why I posted about such things as "web only" series (albeit it's still exploratory/experimental) because the need for a single location facility to produce such is, is less intensive. To explain, one may not be under the gun to produce weekly while a season is "airing." There may be more flexibility in moving through the post production pipeline. One isn't under the pressure of "make air by Wednesday 7pm PST" so much as "we need to have 6 episode in delivery by whenever" for Netflix or Hulu or AOL, etc launch.

It's not that there's no need for a facility but, for many reasons, there's a declining need especially when compared to the growth of whole market and diversity of delivery.

[Chris Kenny] "many get Premiere 'for free' because it comes with a copy of Creative Suite they'd have bought anyway."

Also consider why Adobe is moving to a subscription model as well. I'm not sure how that will work out but some people lease cars rather than buy as well.

[Chris Kenny] "So as bad as things are now, these product lines could be looking at significant revenue declines."

That's why I look at these things from the developer's perspective as much as possible. Broad reach and into growing markets is important for survival and prospering. If people are worried about the longevity of their software, I'd look at the company's ability to reach broadly enough to keep growing. Avid is definitely not one of them (at this point).



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Andrew Richards
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 2:58:34 am

[Juan Morales] "My prediction: within now and 1 year, Avid will be bought by Grant Petty/Blackmagic...

Anyone thinks the same?!?"


Buying Avid is buying a world of hurt. Remember, Avid is not just NLE software. Look at their product index. 535 products! Think of all the customers BMD would piss off if they bought Avid and killed 500+ products. And they'd have to kill most of them, because they'd drown if they didn't.

Best,
Andy


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Kevin Monahan
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 5:57:10 pm

[Andrew Richards] "Terence Curren said he tried to line up someone, anyone, using Premiere Pro for film or TV work to come to this year's pre-NAB Editor's Lounge. But he said he couldn't, even after calling Adobe. Was Team Coco unavailable?"

No, that was a miscommunication between Terry and I. We are rescheduling someone for a post NAB Editor's Lounge. Stay tuned.

Kevin Monahan
Sr. Content and Community Lead
Adobe After Effects
Adobe Premiere Pro
Adobe Systems, Inc.
Follow Me on Twitter!


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Bill Davis
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 6:09:29 pm

[Andrew Richards] "What gives? If every film and TV pro is flocking back to Avid, why are they back in the red? Was everyone waiting for CS6 to hop to Premiere? Does Smoke 2013 change everything?

I feel like this NAB asks more questions than it answers for me. What about you?

Best,
Andy
"


From my conversations during NAB I heard the opposite of any "flocking" behavior in any direction.

We got tons of sizzle this year. (clearly more resolution at lower prices on cameras are a rapidly accelerating technological fact) and a lot of spin.

But this year, underneath the well-earned buzz of Smoke, the Black Magic Camera, the CS6 rebuild et al - what I saw on the show floor was very, VERY retro.

Lots and lots of guys in suits making the traditional contacts, deals and relationships to move as much product out the door as possible - and the vast majority of it has nothing to do with me.

My interests are not the core interests of NAB and haven't been since I worked in Broadcasting in my early career.

NAB is still actually a "wholesalers" convention at it's core. In previous years, consumers, prosumers and even significant but still relatively small players like creative boutiques, ad agencies or production houses use the show to scout for solutions - but the real bulk of NAB has always been that it's a "trade show" in the classic sense.

Which reminded me that what I think is "important" is a smaller part of a small part of the big picture that is "the production industry."

Evolutions or even "revolutions" in this stuff can make my life easier or harder for few years now and then. But it's the "long game" that matters.

I was joking on day one from the airport that the theme this year is "everything changes everything" but on reflection, after the show, that was silly.

Nothing changes everything, because "everything is" unchangeable. Its too overpoweringly massive and complex to ever understand.

Something can change what *I* do. If they target me properly. And manufactures certainly "wish" they could move the industry to their will, but only a small handful can and even those ebb and flow in clout.

Perhaps BlackMagic shook the beast this year. Good for them. From their presence at NAB (right near Apple's old space near the South Hall front door) they generated the new eras most valuable commodity - buzz.

But for how long?

Morgan Spurlock noted in his Supermeet presentation that ephemeral thing we call "buzz" has a shorter and shorter life cycle these days. He noted that about 2 weeks is all you can even hope for before something ELSE is the "next big thing" in peoples brains.

He struck me as a pretty darn smart guy.

So I'm going to try to be a bit more "reflective" and a bit less "reactive" this year.

That seems a better bet for long term results.

Personally, other than the Supermeet craziness of last night (way too much to go into here) the most "fun" I've had was actually that initial meeting of a few "or Not" folk. Walter Soyka and I even sat together for most of the Supermeet program last night (when I wasn't bouncing all over heck and back trying to help put on the show.

And as cool as forum participation is, nothing meets sitting down with people to talk about the past, present and future of an industry we all enjoy.

That's been the whole point, after all. The studying the things we use is all well and good. But the people are where the real value always resides.

Time to lace up the Asics - the show awaits.

"Before speaking out ask yourself whether your words are true, whether they are respectful and whether they are needed in our civil discussions."-Justice O'Connor


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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 6:44:11 pm

[Bill Davis] "Nothing changes everything, because "everything is" unchangeable"

Nice post Bill

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Chris Harlan
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:13:33 pm

Bill, I have to say I enjoyed that.


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Bill Davis
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 1:09:04 am

From the hallway in McCaren where I'm recharging my iPhone while sitting on the floor...

Thank you both, very much.

"Before speaking out ask yourself whether your words are true, whether they are respectful and whether they are needed in our civil discussions."-Justice O'Connor


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 1:49:34 am

[Bill Davis] "From the hallway in McCaren where I'm recharging my iPhone while sitting on the floor..."

"Free" Vegas wifi.

Throw a quarter in the Wheel of Fortune for me.


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TImothy Auld
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 9:55:43 pm

Ten or so years ago Autodesk (Discrete) set afloat a raft of very loyal customers. Anyone who dealt with them has not now nor will they ever forgive that company. Just under a year ago Apple abandoned a huge number of loyal customers. No one who invested their livelihood is going to forgive them either. I was an early adopter of FCP 1.0 and it became my suite of choice. I stuck with it for 13 years. And they screwed me.

Can anyone tell me why I should listen to another syllable of what Apple has to say?

Tim


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:07:33 pm

[TImothy Auld] "en or so years ago Autodesk (Discrete) set afloat a raft of very loyal customers. Anyone who dealt with them has not now nor will they ever forgive that company. Just under a year ago Apple abandoned a huge number of loyal customers. No one who invested their livelihood is going to forgive them either. I was an early adopter of FCP 1.0 and it became my suite of choice. I stuck with it for 13 years. And they screwed me.

Can anyone tell me why I should listen to another syllable of what Apple has to say?"


Because you will soon be left with nothing to buy with that thinking.
12 years ago Avid announced they were no longer going to support the Mac. The backlash probably changed their mind. Symphony took years to come to Mac (although there may have been good technical reasons for that). This was at a time when facilities where hit with the issue that it could cost upwards of $60,000 a seat to change!

Sometime around 2003 or so Adobe Premiere Pro cam out and unlike Premiere, it didn't support the Mac so such users who were expecting to move up felt abandoned. In 2007 Adobe added Mac support.

All the A companies have done serious damage in my opinion. You can argue which was worse but having lived through being an engineer at an Avid based facility at the time of this incident, the duress created given the expense was greater than what Apple did (in my personal opinion).

I am a business person as well as a "creative" and I well base my decisions on anticipated ROI. So many products live for a few years and die, that I can't simply expect eternal life for a software package. I just want to make enough money so my time to learn and return on use makes its lifespan, whatever that may be, worthwhile for my business.



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TImothy Auld
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:38:33 pm

Left with nothing to buy? What a conundrum! And let us not forget that Avid's threat to abandon the Mac platform was the birth of FCP. And I don't expect "eternal life." But I do expect companies that sell me something to follow through on that thing. Apple has not. They are making, quite literally, hundreds of millions of dollars off my back. And that in the words of Don Corleone "is something I do not forgive.

Tim


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:54:24 pm

[TImothy Auld] "But I do expect companies that sell me something to follow through on that thing."

They all do and then they don't. Nearly every company in this industry.

[TImothy Auld] "They are making, quite literally, hundreds of millions of dollars off my back. "

Gee I was under the impression they weren't because it's not an iPhone. They're making anything off your back if you've chosen not to use their product or even if they've chosen not to make a product you like.



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Steve Connor
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:58:28 pm

[TImothy Auld] "They are making, quite literally, hundreds of millions of dollars off my back. And that in the words of Don Corleone "is something I do not forgive.
"


Because your support of FCP over the enabled the company to stay afloat and develop the iDevices?

Steve Connor
"FCPX Professional"
Adrenalin Television


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TImothy Auld
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:01:18 pm

No. because I stuck with many, many products. And they killed them all!

Tim


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Steve Connor
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:02:36 pm

I'd move on then

Steve Connor
"FCPX Professional"
Adrenalin Television


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:04:20 pm

See Discrete/Autodesk. I assume you saw the list. Their killing field is deep and started before Apple's and cost people more money because the move was a lot more expensive then.



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Jeremy Garchow
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:28:18 pm

[TImothy Auld] "Can anyone tell me why I should listen to another syllable of what Apple has to say?"

Then who DO you trust? and why?


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TImothy Auld
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:41:18 pm

Oh, please Jeremy.

Tim


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:56:24 pm

Probably one of the most mature posts I've seen on this forum.
Can you please keep discussion "rational?"
I guess you've never talked to an Edit* user or you are selectively prejudice against Apple.



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TImothy Auld
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:09:42 pm

Craig, if you are talking to me then I do not have the slightest idea what you are talking about. I asked why I should trust a single word Apple says. No on has answered that other than to ask me who I do trust and why. And I repeat that that is obfuscation of the highest order.

Tim


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:31:07 pm

I did in another response. Because you can make money during the life of the product. Of course if you feel you can't make money during the life of a product than that would be a good reason not to trust a company.



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Jeremy Garchow
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:05:37 pm

Im seriously curious.

If you had to buy today, who would you trust that will still "have your back" in 13 years?


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TImothy Auld
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:13:45 pm

I asked you a very pointed question which you are very pointedly not answering.

Tim


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:35:18 pm

[TImothy Auld] "I asked you a very pointed question which you are very pointedly not answering."

I'm sorry, Timothy. I do not mean to obfuscate, especially at the highest order, and I agree there's trust issues.

I can't answer for you, but if you're asking if I trust Apple, I'd guess I'd say, maybe?

I guess I simply can't project what my career is going to look like in 13 years, let alone what gear I'm using. Perhaps that's something I should try and figure out.

I guess I am trying to tackle the bigger problem, and I am generally curious for my own knowledge.

If trust with Apple has run its course, is there an entity you feel more comfortable dealing with?


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TImothy Auld
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:49:32 pm

No.

Tim


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 12:48:46 am

[TImothy Auld] "No"

So what are you going to do?

Personally, all options are on the table.


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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 6:40:13 am

[Jeremy Garchow] "I guess I simply can't project what my career is going to look like in 13 years, let alone what gear I'm using. Perhaps that's something I should try and figure out.

I guess I am trying to tackle the bigger problem, and I am generally curious for my own knowledge.

If trust with Apple has run its course, is there an entity you feel more comfortable dealing with?"


IMO the whole computer industry -- i.e. the firmament on which the NLE market presently rests -- is going to change radically over the next 13 years. Far more so than over the last 13. Pro video editing could mostly be done on 70" touch screens running distant relatives of iOS, or by poking at empty space while wearing Google-branded augmented reality glasses. It's crazy to try to make plans with respect to specific markets or products across the shakeup that's already starting in personal computing.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Michael Gissing
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 7:00:08 am

One thing that I have learned is the cyclic and embarrassing nature of prediction. Fusion power has been 25 years away for the past 60 years.

"Virtual Reality controllers are going to be the norm in 10 years", was confidently predicted by the head of the AES in 1992.

Touch screen have been and gone in Star Trek and the DAW world for good reason and although often predicted, I don't see them as a decent ergonomic solution. My experience of the iPad/Pod doesn't change my thinking.

13 years may seem like a long time but I think people over estimate the rate of change or more importantly the nature of change.


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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 1:54:36 pm

[Michael Gissing] "13 years may seem like a long time but I think people over estimate the rate of change or more importantly the nature of change."

The last 13 years don't provide a very good guide to the next 13, because the personal computer industry has spent most of the last 13 years largely under the thumb of an oppressive monopoly. That's starting to draw to a close, and we're already seeing an explosion of new form factors, interaction mechanisms, software distribution methods, business models, etc.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 2:14:36 pm

[Chris Kenny] "the personal computer industry has spent most of the last 13 years largely under the thumb of an oppressive monopoly."

apple? microsoft? standard oil? OK, I give up. Who?

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 2:16:17 pm

[Herb Sevush] "apple? microsoft? standard oil? OK, I give up. Who?"

Err... is it really necessary to specify that Microsoft is the industry's traditional monopolist? They were legally convicted and everything.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 2:22:21 pm

[Chris Kenny] "is it really necessary to specify that Microsoft is the industry's traditional monopolist? They were legally convicted and everything."

How internet explorer has oppressed me for the last 13 years I don't quite see. I must be missing something.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 2:36:41 pm

[Herb Sevush] "How internet explorer has oppressed me for the last 13 years I don't quite see. I must be missing something."

Windows has sat astride the industry for most of the last 20 years, effectively suppressing platform-level innovation. Microsoft's ecosystem advantages were too vast for competitors to make significant headway. A variety of factors eventually weakened these advantages, most notably a) much of the value in personal computing for average users moving from native Windows apps to the cross-platform web (though Microsoft delayed this by capturing the browser market and allowing IE to stagnate for years) and b) competitors building up ecosystems in other markets (e.e. mobile phones) that are now transferring to some extent to products that compete with Windows PCs in some segments a bit more directly (e.g. iPad vs. netbooks).

At the same time we've also seen hardware advances begin to reach a tipping point where everything is so powerful that users are starting to favor portability over maximum performance, and Internet bandwidth in many countries begin to reach a point were a variety of previously impractical cloud services are now suddenly practical for many people.

The result is a personal computing market that's more fluid than it has been in 20 years, i.e. more fluid than it has been during almost the entire lifespan of widely adopted digital NLE software. Because pro video is a little more performance-intensive than average consumer use the impact of this on our market will likely trail its impact on the consumer market by a couple of years, but our whole industry fundamentally rests on top of mass-market platforms. Change is coming, whether we want it or not.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 3:14:21 pm

Relating to IE, browser, the web, actually IE (and Microsoft) is very much a demon in this.
There are web designers who cursed that IE killed Netscape. IE didn't keep to standards. The rise of FireFox was cheered by many and web designers couldn't wish for the death of IE6 fast enough as later versions of IE had to become more standards compatible.

I don't doubt the Microsoft had a big impact on possibly limiting innovation at Intel since they couldn't go beyond the limits of Microsoft's operating system. I suspect that's why Intel works closely (apparently at least) with Apple because Apple is very willing to push out new technology faster and make changes in the OS to support it.



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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 3:46:06 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Relating to IE, browser, the web, actually IE (and Microsoft) is very much a demon in this."

And by delaying progress on the web, i.e. a cross-platform ecosystem, Microsoft kept ecosystem advantages concentrated on Windows, making it more difficult for competing operating systems to get anywhere. In other words, what Microsoft did with IE didn't just hold back the web, it held back personal computing in general.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Chris Harlan
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 3:48:33 pm

[Craig Seeman] " I suspect that's why Intel works closely (apparently at least) with Apple because Apple is very willing to push out new technology faster and make changes in the OS to support it."

Huh. And here I thought the latest note on the relationship between those two companies was Apple making very public threats to leave Intel if Intel didn't adjust their processor line to suit them.


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 4:09:17 pm

[Chris Harlan] "Huh. And here I thought the latest note on the relationship between those two companies was Apple making very public threats to leave Intel if Intel didn't adjust their processor line to suit them."

Apple leveraging their strength (real or perceived). There's the GPU battle in relation to this of course. Intel is not happy that Apple is dealing with AMD. Apple is not happy with Intel's "progress" on the integrated GPUs. This is all part of the speculation as to where nVidia fits in this. We (the public) don't know all the pieces but the argument is happening because there is a MUTUAL reliance involved. Apple, pushes out Intel's technology faster than anyone. In the USA Apple is the number 3 PC maker (they may be down around 6 or 7 world wide). HP has nixed Thunderbolt and Dell certainly hasn't stepped forward there either. So even as Thunderbolt moves to Windows, Apple is the number one PC maker as far as far sales of Thunderbolt PCs are concerned (baring a radical jump in Lenovo, Acer, Asus sales).



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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:00:24 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Apple leveraging their strength (real or perceived)."

So when Apple does it they are leveraging their strength. When Microsoft does it they are a monopoly strangling the industry. Got it.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:24:28 pm

[Herb Sevush] "So when Apple does it they are leveraging their strength. When Microsoft does it they are a monopoly strangling the industry. Got it."

Big difference is that ultimately neither Intel or Apple control each other. It's a relationship they entered into WILLINGLY. Microsoft did most everything through financial threat. It's the difference between an arm wrestle and a gun pointed to your business head.

Neither Apple nor Intel can take down each other. Microsoft was capable of wiping companies they were doing business with, off the business map.

If you want to look at a more controversial Apple relationship you might look at Apple and Samsung for example. Even their neither company can take down the other.



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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:27:52 pm

[Craig Seeman] "t's the difference between an arm wrestle and a gun pointed to your business head."

In other words Apple would do it if it could, it just isn't strong enough. Got it.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:42:32 pm

[Herb Sevush] "In other words Apple would do it if it could, it just isn't strong enough. Got it."

Lots of companies would do it if they could. Hence the reason for regulatory agencies, federal and international business law.

Note that it was EU courts that nailed Microsoft.

Notice how all the lawsuits (most but not exclusively patent related) are popping up and being handled very differently in different countries.

Arguably some would say Apple can very much be like Microsoft when it comes to iOS devices. Maybe we should be appreciated of "opening up the field" they way they did with EOLing FCS.



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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:53:13 pm

[Craig Seeman] "HP has nixed Thunderbolt and Dell certainly hasn't stepped forward there either. So even as Thunderbolt moves to Windows, Apple is the number one PC maker as far as far sales of Thunderbolt PCs are concerned (baring a radical jump in Lenovo, Acer, Asus sales)."

Or take EFI, Intel's modern boot architecture. Intel Macs have all used it since there have been Intel Macs, over six years now. (Wow, has it really been that long?) Microsoft didn't support it until Windows 7 and it's still not widely used in the Wintel world.

Intel clearly values Apple as a partner with whom new technologies can be rolled out without waiting on Microsoft's often sluggish Windows release cycle or dealing with the Wintel OEMs' extreme price sensitivity.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:55:14 am

[Chris Kenny] "IMO the whole computer industry -- i.e. the firmament on which the NLE market presently rests -- is going to change radically over the next 13 years. Far more so than over the last 13. Pro video editing could mostly be done on 70" touch screens running distant relatives of iOS, or by poking at empty space while wearing Google-branded augmented reality glasses. It's crazy to try to make plans with respect to specific markets or products across the shakeup that's already starting in personal computing."

Thanks, Chris.

Subtley, that was my question to Timothy. I guess it should have been, who CAN you trust and why. And what would it take for a person to have total "trust" in one developer over another?

I don't know the answer as I don't know if an answer exists. At least that level of trust doesn't exist for me personally.

As many times as we have heard "adapt or die" large companies face the same mantra, so who's steering the ship?

13 years in this day and age seems like a really long time. I'm sure at some point this rapid development will even out a bit, but it does seem like we are in the middle of a lot of change due to smaller, faster, cheaper. Granted, there's also bigger, faster-er, and much more expensive, but how many of us truly need that much? If we were all posting, stereo 5k DPX, yes, but 1080 ProRes/DNxHD?

I'd be shocked of there's a product that lasts in more or less it's current state over the next 13 years.

Jeremy


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TImothy Auld
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:52:42 pm

And I asked why I should trust Apple. Answer that question before you take leave to ask me who I trust and why. That is obfuscation of the highest order.

Tim


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 10:57:51 pm

[TImothy Auld] "And I asked why I should trust Apple"

Because you can make money using their product for some number of years before they EOL it just like all the other A companies have done at one point or another.



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TImothy Auld
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:15:59 pm

OK, Craig. On your advice I will make this my business model for the future. I know I will do well.

Tim


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 18, 2012 at 11:51:23 pm

Example, Company X sells you a product for $60,000 and pulls the plug on it long before you get a reasonable return on investment. You're now faced with a huge expense.

Company Y sells you a product for $1000 and within one year you've made many times that. Then pull the plug on it and it only costs you another $1000 to move to another product likely to give you the same or better ROI. No big problem. Move on.

Imagine Company Z sells you a product for $15,000 and then next week announces they will sell an improved version of the same product to all your competitors for $4000, now making it harder for you to get the ROI because they've just facilitated competitive growth, probably limiting your growth in the same target market.

Any number of the above were concerns for any number of facilities resulting from actions by any number of companies along the history of post production give or take changing some of the details.

One of the worse case scenarios was a company I worked for that bought two CMX6000 systems along with an enclosed room to burn glass discs to use in the systems.

You might find this an interesting read.
http://www.smpte-ne.org/articles/eulogy.html



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Tim Wilson
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 9:04:40 am

Quoting an earlier post, [Craig Seeman] "12 years ago Avid announced they were no longer going to support the Mac. The backlash probably changed their mind."

I agree with you, Craig, with a historical tweak. There were indeed a number of company people wandering the floor at NAB 1999 yapping about the end of Mac, the world, etc. but *the company itself* never made any such announcement. In fact, Avid was adamant in its public commitment to staying on Mac and working with Apple.

It's critical to remember that when Apple bought Final Cut from Macromedia, Avid Media Composer was MAC ONLY. After years of Mac-only editing, Avid's Media Composer customer base was ONE HUNDRED PERCENT MAC in 1998. There were no PC customers because there was no PC version. Why would Avid threaten to leave 100% of its customers? That's nonsense....

...but when your only platform partner for your core product declares war on you in 1998, you consider your options for 1999 and beyond. The option Avid chose: keep making software for Macs. So in 1998 Media Composer is 100% Mac and Apple buys Final Cut. In 1999, Apple ships FCP, and whaddya know, Avid ships Media Composer on Mac. In 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, etc etc: Media Composer on Mac. Oh yeah, and PC. But Mac too, through all those years, all the way to today. Macaroons.

In the meantime, what was the result of that 1999 imbroglio? Just a few months later, the then CEO, GONE. The then president, GONE.

In October of 1999, only six months after NAB, to replace them, a new president (later also named CEO) from Digidesign (an AVID company whose customers in 1998 were likewise 100% Mac) who was handling Digi's transition to a dual-platform company more gracefully. (I think I'm remembering right about Pro Tools in 98. At least the documentation I have for Pro Tools 4 from 98 was 100% Mac. HOW all-Mac? Dude, there were approved configurations for Power Computing boxes! Woo-hoo! "Fighting Back for Mac!")

That said, I think you nailed this, Craig. Avid DID say in 1999 that Symphony would stay Windows-only, but I think that customer pressure made a difference. Also worth noting: Symphony was originally $150,000, and you can buy it for 1/150th of that now.

So here we are. The people who mis-handled Avid's in fact non-stop Mac support for Media Composer are GONE. Everybody who worked for them: GONE. The people responsible for them: GONE.

The only things that the company could do was hire somebody else, and keep making products for Mac. That's what they did.

There are similarities at Autodesk in that the people who whatever -- lied to you, misled you, killed your baby, whatever -- are GONE. Your experience is as real and as painful as you say, so now you're never ever going to trust...who? A guy who's not there? Good news: HE'S GONE. People he worked for: GONE. People who worked for him: GONE.

For all practical purposes, then, you're not mad at a company anymore. You're mad at a company NAME. What can a company do for you after the people who screwed you and the people responsible for them are gone? Buy you a pony?

[Craig Seeman] So many products live for a few years and die, that I can't simply expect eternal life for a software package. I just want to make enough money so my time to learn and return on use makes its lifespan, whatever that may be, worthwhile for my business.

Nicely said.

Buy something from Avid or Autodesk, or don't. That's your prerogative. But at some point, you're the only one who's responsible for how you feel. Not them, not anymore.

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou



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Steve Connor
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 9:18:59 am

[Tim Wilson] "There are similarities at Autodesk in that the people who whatever -- lied to you, misled you, killed your baby, whatever -- are GONE. Your experience is as real and as painful as you say, so now you're never ever going to trust...who? A guy who's not there? Good news: HE'S GONE. People he worked for: GONE. People who worked for him: GONE. "

Perhaps the person responsible for the FCPX situation is also GONE?

Steve Connor
"FCPX Professional"
Adrenalin Television


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 1:34:34 pm

[Tim Wilson] "There were indeed a number of company people wandering the floor at NAB 1999 yapping about the end of Mac, the world, etc. but *the company itself* never made any such announcement. In fact, Avid was adamant in its public commitment to staying on Mac and working with Apple. "

I remember those comments as well. There was some debate whether it was an "official" at Avid as opposed to "officially" from Avid. Yes, Avid themselves didn't issue such a statement. Of course this may well be the reason why certain companies are completely silent (like it or not) outside of "official" statements or why they have planned (apparently unofficial) meetings in hotel rooms with selected individuals.

[Tim Wilson] "There were no PC customers because there was no PC version."

Tim, I distinctly remember having two Windows NT based Avids in our shop around that time. Maybe it was shortly after rather than before but this was around that time, not years later. We may have purchased them after as a hedge for what we thought might be coming but this all due to the statements made by "someones" from Avid.

[Tim Wilson] "For all practical purposes, then, you're not mad at a company anymore. You're mad at a company NAME. What can a company do for you after the people who screwed you and the people responsible for them are gone? "

While I can understand some animus when companies do these things, ultimately we have to make the best business decision and if the very same company returns with a worthwhile product one should simply measure the ROI and make a decision.

In most cases the cost in a change of software is just not prohibitive especially when I compare to just a decade or so ago when it could be $50,000 a seat. I mean you buy a computer and NLE (or any other program) and if it's dead in three years you buy a new computer and NLE. Sure there's a learning curve but I don't even find that insurmountable.



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Chris Harlan
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 4:04:30 pm

[Tim Wilson] "Quoting an earlier post, [Craig Seeman] "12 years ago Avid announced they were no longer going to support the Mac. The backlash probably changed their mind."

I agree with you, Craig, with a historical tweak. There were indeed a number of company people wandering the floor at NAB 1999 yapping about the end of Mac, the world, etc. but *the company itself* never made any such announcement. In fact, Avid was adamant in its public commitment to staying on Mac and working with Apple.
"


FWIW, I can personally confirm this. I was at NAB that year and was told on the floor by Avid staff that they were moving away from Apple. As I recall, everything was running on HPs. Back in LA, however, I discovered a few months later that that view may have represented the feelings and resentments, wishes and desires of a number of employees, but was not the official view of the company. I've never really gotten to the bottom of what happened there, and there is quite a bit of historical disconnect, where people who were close to Avid deigned it ever happened. But, I heard it with my own ears, and have talked with many over the years who have heard it as well. If someone can ever shine a light on what happened there, I'd love to know.


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 4:35:29 pm

While I wasn't at NAB, being a facility engineer I had lots of eyes and ears out there and when I get several messages from people who had direct conversations, just as you did, it hit me viscerally as well as like simultaneously blows to the head and stomach. There I was trying to convince the facility to dump their relatively recently purchased digital online room for a couple of Symphonies, Unity, a few more Media Composers and suddenly we'd be hit with, instead, having to fork over to move all the workstations at Avid's proprietary and unfriendly "upgrade" pricing. Of course Avid never pulled the plug on Mac but the thought was truly devastating (and I mean financially as well).

Facilities (and individuals) face these changes every year whether it's broadcasters moving from analog to digital, the new "calm" rules or the ending of the 700MHz spectrum used by many wireless mics etc. Sometimes it's a company, sometimes it's gov't, but change is inevitable and it's often coercive. I just don't find what Apple did all that unique although each time something like this happens there are unique elements.



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Chris Harlan
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 4:56:02 pm

[Craig Seeman] "I just don't find what Apple did all that unique although each time something like this happens there are unique elements.
"


I don't either. In my head, I'm pretty much at peace with Apple. The only thing that really bugs me about them still are their epically poor communication skills. But, there's nothing I can do about that. Other, of course, than not put all my eggs in one basket.


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:19:59 pm

[Chris Harlan] "The only thing that really bugs me about them still are their epically poor communication skills. "

I agree. A while back I posted that they seem to be an "autistic" company if one can anthropomorphize a communication model to a business model. It's not even as if they have models for different markets such as one method of iOS devices and another for their computers, where purchases decisions are made very differently.

One example might be the recent dissemination of their FCPX roadmap which included important info about MXF support and audio improvements. Some companies would send out a media release. Apple, in effect, had a press conference with one person (although they apparently met with others individually as well). Certainly being able to interact with a person as they give information is better than a simple media release but that it was apparently one on one is the odd part.

I can speculate on why they did that (no greater or lesser value than any other speculation). It seems they do want to hear questions back. It seems they may not want people interacting with each other during that process. My guess is that they want to avoid the influence of "group think/group mindset" as they release this information.



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Chris Harlan
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:51:35 pm

[Craig Seeman] "My guess is that they want to avoid the influence of "group think/group mindset" as they release this information."

I'm more cynical than you are. My guess is that they just don't want to be pegged down about anything, ever. They kept Shake alive years even though they had internally killed it, simply to have that option. Mac Pro is the same thing.


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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 6:23:17 pm

[Chris Harlan] "I'm more cynical than you are. My guess is that they just don't want to be pegged down about anything, ever. They kept Shake alive years even though they had internally killed it, simply to have that option. Mac Pro is the same thing."

The Sandy Bridge E5 Xeons are new enough that Apple's lack of a Mac Pro update doesn't really mean anything either way yet. Especially since Intel sometimes formally "ships" a processor well before it's actually available in quantities useful to OEMs.

I'd put the odds of there being at least one more Mac Pro revision at 80%. After that, who knows. If the next Xeon update after this one isn't for another two years, the number of customers who still need Mac Pros at that point -- with on-board GPUs on iMacs and Minis being that much more powerful and a much more mature ecosystem around Thunderbolt -- will probably be substantially smaller than it is today. And it's already pretty small.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 6:32:22 pm

[Chris Kenny] "The Sandy Bridge E5 Xeons are new enough that Apple's lack of a Mac Pro update doesn't really mean anything either way yet. Especially since Intel sometimes formally "ships" a processor well before it's actually available in quantities useful to OEMs."

Given that HP announced they would be shipping the HP820 with the Sandy Bridge E5 Xeons at the end of May, and announced it the day the chips were formally announced by Intel, how is it that Apple, with their wonderful relationship to Intel, can't get these same chips in quantity?

I very much hope your analysis is correct, I would buy one the first day, but my guess is it's not going to happen, and since Apple won't talk I'm probably going to have to commit my money elsewhere since I can't wait for an illusion. Cloud computing is one thing, dream computing another.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 6:47:14 pm

[Herb Sevush] "Given that HP announced they would be shipping the HP820 with the Sandy Bridge E5 Xeons at the end of May, and announced it the day the chips were formally announced by Intel, how is it that Apple, with their wonderful relationship to Intel, can't get these same chips in quantity?"

If HP can get them in quantity in late May Apple presumably can as well. But why expect an announcement? Sure, HP made one, but Apple rarely announces Mac updates six weeks in advance of availability. In fact, the Mac Pro is a pretty low-profile product for Apple these days -- it's not impossible there will be no advance announcement at all, and the new models will simply appear in the online store one day.

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 6:59:43 pm

[Chris Kenny] " In fact, the Mac Pro is a pretty low-profile product for Apple these days -- it's not impossible there will be no advance announcement at all, and the new models will simply appear in the online store one day."

And it's also not impossible that they will discontinue the line completely, in fact I'd say 80-20 for discontinuance precisely because the MacPro line is so low profile. The MacPro currently sticks out like a sore thumb in Apple's current line of consumer gadgets. The MacPro, like Legacy, is aimed at a market Apple no longer cares about. I don't blame them, it's just business, but a little clarity would be nice.

This is one of the real pleasures of dealing with a company that doesn't communicate with it's customers, anybody's opinion is valid because "he who speaks does not know, he who knows does not speak."

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 8:49:27 pm

[Herb Sevush] "The MacPro currently sticks out like a sore thumb in Apple's current line of consumer gadgets."

I don't know quite how true this is. The MacBook Pro is also a fairly high-end performance focused machine, and is marketed as such. (The current subheading on its product page is "State-of-the-art processors. All-new graphics. Breakthrough high-speed I/O".)

--
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 7:26:35 pm

HP wouldn't be waiting for the new Thunderbolt controllers either.



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Jeremy Garchow
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 7:06:12 pm

[Herb Sevush] "Cloud computing is one thing, dream computing another."

Just curious, but have you even tired plugging in a thunderbolt raid (to an iMac/laptop) and doing a 5 cam multicam?

How do you know what dream is possible?

Jeremy


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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 7:42:31 pm

[Jeremy Garchow] "Just curious, but have you even tired plugging in a thunderbolt raid (to an iMac/laptop) and doing a 5 cam multicam? How do you know what dream is possible?"

Since these new TBolt expansion chassis were just announced in the past few days, I would have to say no to that.

In general the idea of using an Imac with Tbolt connectors is not very appealing. I'm trying to maximize my bandwidth; I want to maximize my ram and my GPU possibilities, I want PCIe 3 type speeds - how does that fit in with the idea of an Imac and Tbolt xpansion.

However, if someone can show me that I can get the speed I want with all the peripherals I need with Tbolt Imacs I will definitely give it a look. My preference now is to buy a Mac, I'm desperate to give them a lot of my money, but they have to give me something reliable and expandable that meets my needs. I'm open to any possibility that works. But I absolutely have to make a decision by June 1 - If I know that what I want is coming a few months later I can work around it, but if it's all still a dream at that point then I'm jumping ship.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 7:54:11 pm

[Herb Sevush] "I want PCIe 3 type speeds "

Just curious, but what are you pushing through a PCIe3 pipe when editing 720p60 ProRes?

1 stream of 720p60 ProRes is 20ish MB/sec.

Let's underestimate and say a Thunderbolt raid runs @ 450MB/sec read in raid 5

That's 20+ streams of multicam @ 720p60.

[Herb Sevush] "However, if someone can show me that I can get the speed I want with all the peripherals I need with Tbolt Imacs I will definitely give it a look. "

I would call up a VAR.


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 7:26:37 pm

[Herb Sevush] "Given that HP announced they would be shipping the HP820 with the Sandy Bridge E5 Xeons at the end of May, and announced it the day the chips were formally announced by Intel, how is it that Apple, with their wonderful relationship to Intel, can't get these same chips in quantity?"

Maybe just that Apple wouldn't announce before they can actually ship because of what they currently have in the channel. There's nothing like anticipating a newly announced product to kill sales (what's left of it) of your current product.



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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 7:32:32 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Maybe just that Apple wouldn't announce before they can actually ship because of what they currently have in the channel. There's nothing like anticipating a newly announced product to kill sales (what's left of it) of your current product."

Great, so lets try to squeeze every last drop out of that rock and hope someone buys it at full price the day before we come out with the upgrade. Nice.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 9:01:01 pm

[Herb Sevush] "Great, so lets try to squeeze every last drop out of that rock and hope someone buys it at full price the day before we come out with the upgrade. Nice."

Like it or not, Apple's done this before and does this as a matter of course. It's actually smart business although maybe not great customer relations.



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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:50:19 pm

[Craig Seeman] "It's actually smart business although maybe not great customer relations."

I've never thought creating bad customer relations is good business, but then again I'm not Apple. On the other hand HP doesn't seem to need to screw their customers to make a buck.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 7:23:56 pm

Keep in mind the new Thunderbolt controllers are just coming out as well so Apple may have be waiting for all the pieces.



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Herb Sevush
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 7:45:46 pm

[Craig Seeman] "Keep in mind the new Thunderbolt controllers are just coming out as well so Apple may have be waiting for all the pieces."

As my grandma used to say "from your mouth to god's ears."

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 9:03:43 pm

Uh Oh, Are we related? I had an aunt that said that.



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Chris Harlan
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 10:23:19 pm

[Chris Kenny] "I'd put the odds of there being at least one more Mac Pro revision at 80%."

Well, that's optimistic! It would be cool if you were right, and I'd love to be wrong, but I'm thinking the odds are pretty much the exact opposite of what you've got going there. In fact, 20%--whatever that actually means--is generous.


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 10:47:08 pm

To me the biggest clue (and it all depends on how you read it) is that there's no mention of the MacPro in the FCP In Action case studies on Apple's site and RadicalMedia only mentions "Mac" as well as the RedRocket doesn't link to the card (which would have to be in an expansion chassis if there were no MacPro)

This doesn't mean there won't be a MacPro replacement but it may be called something else and it may not be in a Tower form factor. If it were a just an update with newer chips and some Thunderbolt ports I'd think the MacPro (which was apparently used in some of these) would have been mentioned.

It's a bit of "Sherlock Holmes" for me but no mention of the MacPro, no mention of a computer model at all in one case study and no link to a card that would be in a PCIe slot looks like dots to connect.



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Chris Harlan
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 10:51:23 pm

[Craig Seeman] "To me the biggest clue (and it all depends on how you read it) is that there's no mention of the MacPro in the FCP In Action case studies on Apple's site and RadicalMedia only mentions "Mac" as well as the RedRocket doesn't link to the card (which would have to be in an expansion chassis if there were no MacPro)
"


That's a good one. The biggest one to me, though, is the CEO announcing 750,000 time within the course of the iPad intro that Apple is a "Post PC Company."


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:02:48 pm

I've noted elsewhere that Apple is actually a leading PC maker. They are ranked third in USA (about 6 or 7 world wide) and their sales are going up. MacPro is not their only PC. MacBook Pros, as I understand it, are at or near the top in laptop sales above $1000. iMacs probably the same for all in ones. This when most companies are experiencing declines . . . and towers from many manufacturers are suffering the steepest declines.



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Chris Harlan
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:25:26 pm

[Craig Seeman] "I've noted elsewhere that Apple is actually a leading PC maker. They are ranked third in USA (about 6 or 7 world wide) and their sales are going up. MacPro is not their only PC. MacBook Pros, as I understand it, are at or near the top in laptop sales above $1000. iMacs probably the same for all in ones. This when most companies are experiencing declines . . . and towers from many manufacturers are suffering the steepest declines.
"


I agree with all of that. Macbook Pros have a future. iMacs too. And, I really hope you are right about some tough new iMacPro. Frankly, it makes sense to me that there should be a Mac Pro, even if its manufactured and sold at a loss. But I don't think their head is there. Thin client has won big at Apple, and a big old workstation is the antithesis of that. I just see it being drummed out of their culture.


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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 11:42:31 pm

[Chris Harlan] "it makes sense to me that there should be a Mac Pro, even if its manufactured and sold at a loss."

I'd argue that the halo effect works at both ends of the spectrum. Certainly Apple wants people who by iOS devices to move into the entire Mac ecosystem. It's also important (IMHO) that each person who uses a MacPro (or an equally powerful replacement) may well have a MBP for portable use, an iMac for home/family use (and it may be more than one) and iPhones, iPod Touches, iPads for various family members. Pull the top end and some number of people may be using Windows and Androids within two years.

That said, I do think the tower is on the way out but that doesn't mean the "pro" machine should be on the way out. I hope not.



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Chris Kenny
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 20, 2012 at 12:35:09 am

Why did Lion start adding support for additional NVIDIA cards (like the 5xx series) all of a sudden, and even drop the requirement for Mac-specific graphics cards? This seems like an odd thing to do a few months before discontinuing the only machine with PCIe slots. So even if there isn't a new tower form-factor Mac Pro, there's probably going to be something. There were rumors a while back about a slightly smaller rack-mountable form factor, now that the Xserve is gone. That could he handy, and they could probably get away with dropping down to two drive bays and two 16x PCIe slots, now that they've got Thunderbolt.

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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 20, 2012 at 1:02:13 am

[Chris Kenny] " So even if there isn't a new tower form-factor Mac Pro, there's probably going to be something. There were rumors a while back about a slightly smaller rack-mountable form factor, now that the Xserve is gone. That could he handy, and they could probably get away with dropping down to two drive bays and two 16x PCIe slots, now that they've got Thunderbolt."

I agree. There's going to be something. Your description is similar to my guess.
I've recently thought an iMacPro might be possible given rumors about anti glare monitors. It would obviously have to be a somewhat different form than the iMac though given dual proc Xeon and a user accessible 16x PCIe slot. Sir Jon Ive would have to do some miracle work though.

BTW the latest "Sherlock Holmes" clue that didn't get much attention is that along with FCPX 10.0.4 update, Compressor was updated to use headless Macs in a QMaster cluster (previously not possible). So either Apple things people are going to use MacMinis with dual i5 to make encoder clusters (not really practical in my opinion) or there's a more powerful headless Mac on the way which might just be Mini quad i7 as standard rather than server but obviously I hope for more.



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Paul Dickin
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 20, 2012 at 9:18:58 am

Hi
I would agree that there should be a reworked form-factor replacement top end TB Mac 'Pro'.

BUT:
Buried deep in the MacRumors forum threads about the introduction of Sandy Bridge E5 Xeon chips is a passing mention of an Intel employee who had said that what was different this time round (2011-12) was that Apple engineers hadn't shown up at Intel's Xeon reference motherboard design dept - last time they came was to discuss the 2010 Westmere Xeon mobo changes.

Obviously as a rumour that is as dissmissable as Shane R's 'two sources', but whilst NDA's (and employment contracts) prevent people saying what is happening sometimes what isn't happening can slip out. Maybe...:-(

Time will tell.



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Craig Seeman
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 6:26:26 pm

[Chris Harlan] "They kept Shake alive years even though they had internally killed it"

Some would have wished they had allowed FCS legacy to go down that path as well.

[Chris Harlan] "My guess is that they just don't want to be pegged down about anything, ever. "

The could remain completely silent and have chosen not to. Larry's posted info spread everywhere. Hardly a method to avoid being pegged IMHO. From what I understand Larry wasn't the only one they talked to so there'd be corroboration. I just think Apple feels more control in one on one situations. Sort of like the direct antithesis of the 2011 Supermeet. Apple wants complete control which not quite the same as complete silence.



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Paul Dickin
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 5:58:56 pm

Hi
From the UK the late 90s buzz that I remember hearing was that with the replacement of the 6 PCI-slot 9600 PowerMacs with the 3-slot G3 ranges Avid and ProTools hardware wouldn't fit in the new Macs.

So initially they thought they'd sort that by moving to 6-slot Win NT boxes, but the uproar from (as Tim W stated) ALL the user base brought about a rethink and the necessary re-engineering to shoehorn the video/audio hardware and SCSI card into the Macs Apple were producing.



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Neil Patience
Re: The Fog Thickens
on Apr 19, 2012 at 6:17:37 pm

Like Paul, I am UK based and remember Avid dropping Mac for a short time, I would guess it was for around a year or so.
We happened to be buying a couple of media composers at the time and were told PC only.
It was around the time of the G3/G4 boxes and Avid had to resort to using Expansion Chassis to house the Avid hardware, as the lack of slots in the Macs meant Avid could not run all it needed hardware-wise.
It was certainly just about that time Mac was fairy briefly dropped.
I also remember that when Macs were re-supported, I think there was a disparity in features between the Mac and PC versions for a while until the Mac version "caught up" again.
At least thats how I remeber it - its a little fuzzy now.

best wishes
Neil
http://www.patience.tv


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