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An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic

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Greg Andonian
An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic
on Mar 27, 2012 at 11:29:54 am

Watching the John Adobe video, reading the recent threads about Adobe's swift acknowledgement of the QTChange issue, and seeing all the excited anticipation over PPro CS6 got me thinking again about an image someone posted on MacRumors last year:



At the time I didn't think much of it, because I knew PPro CS5 was very rough around the edges compared to FCP7, but with CS6 around the corner and so much buzz surrounding it, I'm now beginning to wonder if it could start coming true.

Even when CS6 arrives, Premiere Pro very likely won't be ready to totally replace FCP7 just yet- but it really seems as though A LOT of people REALLY WANT IT to get there, and that makes me think it's not a matter of IF, but WHEN- because judging by what we've seen so far, Adobe is definitely paying attention...

______________________________________________
"THAT'S our fail-safe point. Up until here, we still have enough track to stop the locomotive before it plunges into the ravine... But after this windmill it's the future or bust."


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tony west
Re: An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic
on Mar 27, 2012 at 3:40:44 pm

I can't see it Greg.

Just looking around my town, since X came out I know of about 10 people who have moved to it.

I know of about 5 or 6 people who say, they are going to get X but have not yet purchased it.

I know of about 3 to 4 people who have talked about moving to PPr from 7 but have not done that yet.
Still sitting on their 7

I know CS6 is coming out soon but I don't hear anybody on the job talking about it. Maybe after NAB they will.

I know of 0 people in my town who have bought PPr in the last year. Not that they won't in the future, I'm just talking about right now.

This forum, and what I see in my market are pretty different and I find that interesting.

Are people you know in your market buying more PPr's than X's ?


I got Lynda, so I checked the lessons on CS5. That UI looked clunky to me. I bet the new one will be much better. I didn't like how it does titles over a still like that. I much prefer how X does it on the main canvas so I can see how it comes in over the video in realtime. I watched him drag that needle up and down the tmeline. I don't miss that, or turning those tracks on and off.

The main thing I thought was strange was how basic the lesson was.

He explained what B-roll was, like he was aspecting a rank amateur to be watching.
The X lesson picks up like you know how to edit already.

I wonder why he felt the need to explain basic stuff to professional editors with that program.
He must figure that the product also has users who are beginners and not just "top end" editors.


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Walter Soyka
Re: An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic
on Mar 27, 2012 at 4:18:05 pm

[tony west] "This forum, and what I see in my market are pretty different and I find that interesting."

That's one of the things I like best about this forum -- there's a lot of diversity.

Most of the FCP folks I know personally are still working on FCP7 and waiting to see what NAB will bring. There seems to be a big sense of anticipation around CS6.


[tony west] "Are people you know in your market buying more PPr's than X's ?"

I don't know what the sales numbers are, but someone is buying. From an Adobe press release last September [link]:
Demand for Adobe’s video content creation tools has exploded, growing 22 percent year-over-year with 45 percent growth on the Mac, fueled by the large number of Apple Final Cut Pro customers switching to Adobe Premiere® Pro.

I'd guess there are also quite a few folks like me who have had Premiere Pro licenses for years as part of the suite, but never launched the application until last summer.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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tony west
Re: An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic
on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:53:02 am

[Walter Soyka] "I don't know what the sales numbers are, but someone is buying. "

Thanks Walter, but I wasn't asking if someone was buying, I was asking if you personally saw more people in your market buying MORE PPr than X

The subject was PPr was going to kill FCP X

In order to do that you got to sell more copies. I don't think that's going to happen.


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Walter Soyka
Re: An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic
on Mar 29, 2012 at 5:59:03 am

[tony west] "Thanks Walter, but I wasn't asking if someone was buying, I was asking if you personally saw more people in your market buying MORE PPr than X. The subject was PPr was going to kill FCP X. In order to do that you got to sell more copies. I don't think that's going to happen."

I agree with you there. However, I also think that Adobe's 45% year over year growth on the Mac is significant, and I don't think that claim can be meaningfully trumped with anecdotal evidence here.

I'm most interested in learning more about who is using what. I have my theories, but I'd love to learn a little more about what segments of the former FCP7 market are moving to PrP, what segments are moving to MC, and what segments are moving to FCPX. Editorial is certainly not a one-size-fits-all proposition anymore.

Speaking for myself, my niche is mograph, so I basically get an NLE for free along with my regular design tools. I've bought three new licenses of PrP (as part of Production Premium suite bundles) since last June, and I've also bought an MC license and an FCPX license in that same timeframe. When I edit, I'm currently largely using PrP, and Adobe's integration has been the driving factor in my work.

My decision to start working cross-platform has raised a few eyebrows among my clients and colleagues, both FCP7 and MC users alike. Nearly all of them have made the error of asking me about my opinions on PCs without clearing their calendars first...

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Mitch Ives
Re: An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic
on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:09:47 pm

[tony west] "I wonder why he felt the need to explain basic stuff to professional editors with that program.
He must figure that the product also has users who are beginners and not just "top end" editors."


To be fair the same can be said of a lot of training. I bought an FCPX series and the first four chapters were all "getting ready to get ready". Each chapter seems designed for someone who knows nothing about NLE's. There is a lot of chapters, but not enough depth. Some remedial things are over-explained while more complex things are under-explained.

So, it seems to be the norm when you're trying to make a single product to fit everyone. When you try and please everyone you often end up pleasing no one...

Mitch Ives
Insight Productions Corp.

"Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things." - Winston Churchill


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MIke Guidotti
Re: An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic
on Mar 28, 2012 at 12:43:41 pm

[Mitch Ives] "Some remedial things are over-explained while more complex things are under-explained." I noticed that with some other Lynda training I did - like sound wack pro for instance.


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Tapio Haaja
Re: An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic
on Mar 28, 2012 at 7:57:50 am

For professionals who want to learn Premiere Pro fast I can warmly recommend An Editor's Guide to Adobe Premiere Pro - http://www.amazon.com/Editors-Guide-Adobe-Premiere-Pro/dp/0321773012

I also tried Lynda first but Premiere Pro course there was targeted to beginners. This book goes straight to important things. And no I don't have anything to do with this book. I just thing it's good one.

Best
Tapio Haaja

On-Air Promotion Producer
http://avseikkailuja.blogspot.com/


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Steve Connor
Re: An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic
on Mar 27, 2012 at 3:55:38 pm

[Greg Andonian] "Even when CS6 arrives, Premiere Pro very likely won't be ready to totally replace FCP7 just yet- but it really seems as though A LOT of people REALLY WANT IT to get there, and that makes me think it's not a matter of IF, but WHEN- because judging by what we've seen so far, Adobe is definitely paying attention..."

There's a huge weight of expectation on Adobe at the moment, they've been quick to exploit Apple's problems with FCPX, I think we're all keen to see what they have come up with in CS6.

Steve Connor
"FCPX Professional"
Adrenalin Television


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Rafael Amador
Re: An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic
on Mar 27, 2012 at 4:28:47 pm

[Steve Connor] "they've been quick to exploit Apple's problems with FCPX,"
I guess you mean "..people problems with PP..".
Apple doesn't seems to have any problem with FCPX.
rafael

http://www.nagavideo.com


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Gary Huff
Re: An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic
on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:24:57 pm

[Rafael Amador] "I guess you mean "..people problems with PP..". Apple doesn't seems to have any problem with FCPX."

What?


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Rafael Amador
Re: An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic
on Mar 27, 2012 at 8:11:40 pm

Yeap. Correction:
"..people problems with FCPX..". Apple doesn't seems to have any problem with FCPX :-)
Thanx for the "What?"
rafael

http://www.nagavideo.com


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Michael Gissing
Re: An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic
on Mar 27, 2012 at 8:52:20 pm

[tony west] "This forum, and what I see in my market are pretty different and I find that interesting."

Indeed. I am sent projects from around Australia and so far no-one has asked if they can send a FCPX project. Most still use FCP7 and are waiting for CS6 before deciding on AVID or PP. Almost no-one is talking about using FCPX except to muck around with. Granted my area is broadcast post, so this forum varys like any market place and we tend to make judgements based on our small sample groups.


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Shawn Miller
Re: An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic
on Mar 27, 2012 at 9:24:49 pm

[Michael Gissing] "[tony west] "This forum, and what I see in my market are pretty different and I find that interesting."

Indeed. I am sent projects from around Australia and so far no-one has asked if they can send a FCPX project. Most still use FCP7 and are waiting for CS6 before deciding on AVID or PP."


FWIW, I'm seeing the same thing here in my little corner of Seattle, WA. 'Bigger' facilities that weren't already Avid, are going from FCP7 to Avid with some consideration towards PP. Medium/smaller shops (PR/Ad agencies, in-house corporate video teams) and freelancers seem to be going half and half to Avid and PP, and freelancers I work with internationally (Asia and Europe), are seeming to favor Premiere. So far, I've only met two people who are using or considering FCPX.

Shawn



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Bret Williams
Re: An image from last year that's starting to feel prophetic
on Mar 28, 2012 at 1:53:03 am

I know of a camera man that thinks x is cool. Probably because it has lots of built in titles and fx and he doesn't have to transcode his 7D material. Other than that , the high end corporate are going back to Avid or considering Premiere and/or keeping an eye on NAB and waiting. The boutiques that switched to FCP in the past are mostly going back to Avid. I'm a home freelancer for the most part. I already have Premiere CS5 with my suite. It's not ready yet compared to FCP 7. Waiting for CS6 to see if it's worth a damn or to go back to Acid after 10 years. But I may just have 3 suites in one for awhile.

I think Mountain Lion will kill FCP 7. Not on purpose, but just because they're not taking it into consideration.


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