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Steve Connor
arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 3:20:47 pm

In the absence of any news!

http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2012/01/video-pros-apple-needs-to-acknowl...

Steve Connor
"FCPX Agitator"
Adrenalin Television


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Craig Seeman
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 3:50:25 pm

To me, FCPX is like the High School pitching phenom that's destined to be a Major League star. You recognize the raw talent. Understand that it has to develop. If you're a pro team he's not ready for the rotation yet. That doesn't mean the talent isn't there. If you need a starting pitcher today, he's probably not it. On the other hand, your smart scouts are telling you to sign him now. The scouts who don't see this are going to lose out.



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Mark Dobson
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 5:20:23 pm

Well that's a pretty sobering article and I can really understand why the big production setups are giving FCPX a side step.

As mentioned so many times the fact that Final Cut Studio was knocked on the head at the same time as the seemingly juvenile X was released did nothing to help keep people on board.

But for small production companies like the one I work for the switch to FCPX is really starting to pay dividends.

I have to agree with what Ryan Poirier says in the article.

"My personal view on FCP X is that it's a brilliant program, provided the user can essentially forget everything they've learned from using the previous Final Cut Pro/ Studio applications and go into it with an open mind. Don't be quick to judge a book by its cover, or give in to all the negative hype," Poirier told Ars. "I may be more optimistic then others by nature, but after learning FCPX in it's current state, I'm more excited about future potential of the application then I am concerned with it's current shortfalls. "


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Herb Sevush
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 6:13:02 pm

[Craig Seeman] "To me, FCPX is like the High School pitching phenom that's destined to be a Major League star. "

And like that high school phenom, the odds are 100-1 that he will flame out in the minors (bad arm, bad head, bad habits) and never get to the show.

Your choice of metaphor, not mine.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Craig Seeman
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 6:17:54 pm

[Herb Sevush] "that he will flame out in the minors"

I wont argue the possibility. I don't think the odds are that bad. Consider the resources behind him (Apple). Of course it depends on what you think of that as well.

[Herb Sevush] "Your choice of metaphor, not mine."

I chose that metaphor deliberately. I think it's appropriate. I make no claims to knowing the future but scouts observe and recommend when it comes to future prospects. I think FCPX is an excellent future prospect. This scout would make him a high minor league pick.



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Herb Sevush
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 6:25:47 pm

[Craig Seeman] "I chose that metaphor deliberately. I think it's appropriate."

The odds of a high school pitcher, no matter how highly thought of, making the bigs are so low that many teams refuse to draft high school pitchers at all. 100-1 is an overstatement, but if you knew the actual odds I believe you would have chosen a different analogy. 18 year old can't miss hitting prospects yes; 18 year old can't miss pitching prospects don't exist.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Craig Seeman
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 6:43:26 pm

FCPX the next Steve Dalkowski?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Dalkowski

1970 profile of Dalkowski concluded, "His failure was not one of deficiency, but rather of excess. He was too fast. His ball moved too much. His talent was too superhuman... It mattered only that once, just once, Steve Dalkowski threw a fastball so hard that Ted Williams never even saw it. No one else could claim that."

FCPX has a mean fastball.

Dalkowski was also famous for his unpredictable performance and inability to control his pitches.

Very wild. I think Apple has the best coaches in the league though. They're good at spotting talent. They've cut the roster a lot these days so their in a rebuilding phase but I think they have a good eye for young talent. They have a good minor league system.



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Herb Sevush
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 6:52:08 pm

[Craig Seeman] "FCPX the next Steve Dalkowski?"

I know who Dalkowski was, without Wikipedia. If you want to claim that FCPX is the Steve Dalkowski of NLE's, go right ahead. You can even call it the Brian Taylor or Pat Jordan of NLEs if you want to be more tragic - the list goes on and on.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Craig Seeman
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 7:03:28 pm

[Herb Sevush] "I know who Dalkowski was, without Wikipedia"

For the benefit of other people who may not get an obscure reference. Not everyone here is a baseball fanatic.

Some thing FCPX will be the tragedy. I think not.



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Herb Sevush
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 7:19:07 pm

[Craig Seeman] "For the benefit of other people who may not get an obscure reference"

You mean Baltimore Orioles minor league pitching prospects from the '50s are obscure? I must be out of touch. See that's the difference Craig, you worry about confusing your audience (the Apple way) I figure if they don't get it they can look it up (my way.) Your way annoys the knowledgeable, my way annoys everyone ;)

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Gordon Modin
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 7:31:31 pm

Not having posted on the Cow before, I specifically created an account just to respond to Herb's mention that 18 year old pitching prospects don't exist, a counter to the previous statement that the odds are better than Herb infers. Herb is spot on with his assessment. Years ago I did a series of videos with pitching coach Tom House and Tom stated it took 2 years for someone (even at the pro level) to develop a change-up, curveball, fastball, or slider. Obviously the 2 year period could fluctuate depending on a lot of variables, but at 18 that kid hasn't had the time to master much of a fastball, let alone even getting it over the plate. End of point.

Getting back on track with Final Cut users switching software I think it more telling if you look at the Apps store and view the rankings of Final Cut, Motion, and Compressor with a side glance at iMovie. Currently iMovie sits at #8 moving down from #7 in the last week. FCX is at #21 having been #19 a little while ago. Since iMovie sells for $14.99 and FCX at $299, it would take roughly 20 times more people purchasing iMovie to equal FCX. We'll never know the exact figures, but more to the point is that iMovie is not only still selling, but to a wider user base than FCX. My guess is that curiosity drove them to FCX, but iMovie is what they are settling on. Can't imagine it being the other way around or FCX would be #1. It would be even more compelling to find out how many people bought FCX and then asked for their money back.

That said we now look at Motion and Compressor. Motion is currently at #49, but used to be #37. Compressor used to be #56 before dipping to #80. You would think Motion and Compressor would be considered part of an editing package and be purchased in equal numbers right along with FCX. Such is not the case even though both are priced at $49.99. Development costs for Motion and Compressor are not worth supporting if being #49 and #80 is the eventual return on investment. To put it another way: Angry Birds are kicking their ass.

Tim Cook is a bean counter. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but bean counters worry about return on investment, not whether video professionals are having their needs met. It's the bottom line or the highway. In my opinion, it's not a matter of "if" but "when" and that has a lot of us (including me) very scared.

Gordon Modin


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Marvin Holdman
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 7:51:01 pm

To expand on the metaphor...

Team Apple is in the big show with a high school pitcher.

Marvin Holdman
Production Manager
Tourist Network
8317 Front Beach Rd, Suite 23
Panama City Beach, Fl
phone 850-234-2773 ext. 128
cell 850-585-9667
skype username - vidmarv


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Craig Seeman
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 8:15:32 pm

[Marvin Holdman] "Team Apple is in the big show with a high school pitcher. "

Apple is in many ways like an expansion team. They brought up the talent even though it's not developed yet. There's now the impact of bringing up that talent too soon. Or maybe another analogy is they dumped the veterans too soon. Granted they needed youth but the youth isn't yet capable of taking on the day to day responsibilities. Now we have to be concerned that bringing up the talent too soon, damaged its future.



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Marvin Holdman
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 9:33:17 pm

Craig Seeman - "Apple is in many ways like an expansion team."

More like they won the world series, fired the championship team and came back as an expansion team. Bogles the mind really. Like betting on a single number in roulette (to continue the metaphorical escapade!) If it hits, it's going to be huge, but odds are against it. Of course, in this case, Apple can keep making the bet, over and over, until eventually it does hit.

Marvin Holdman
Production Manager
Tourist Network
8317 Front Beach Rd, Suite 23
Panama City Beach, Fl
phone 850-234-2773 ext. 128
cell 850-585-9667
skype username - vidmarv


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Simon Ubsdell
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 9:47:00 pm

[Marvin Holdman] "
More like they won the world series"


Can you guys please start talking English so the rest of us know what you're going on about!!!???

Simon Ubsdell
Director/Editor/Writer
http://www.tokyo-uk.com


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Craig Seeman
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 10:23:03 pm

[Simon Ubsdell] "Can you guys please start talking English so the rest of us know what you're going on about!!!???"

Football team wins World Cup and fires the stars and replaces them with talented secondary school athletes who haven't be well coached yet.



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Bill Davis
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 11:46:21 pm

[Simon Ubsdell] "[Marvin Holdman] "
More like they won the world series"

Can you guys please start talking English so the rest of us know what you're going on about!!!???

Simon Ubsdell
Director/Editor/Writer
http://www.tokyo-uk.com"


Simon,

It's a US based tortured metaphor free-for all.

As the father of a number of equally lame attempts to anthropomorphize this piece of inanimate computer code and extrapolate it's features into something easier to understand, I understand the temptation.

Human teen sports players, no matter their talent and ability, get attached to drugs, or drink, bad moral behavior, inflated egos, or simply blow out knees with appalling regularity.

A stack of code either works or it doesn't. And if it doesn't it can be re-coded so that it does.

It's an argument of features and implementation, not human fallibility.

Everyone posting here is smart enough to know that in the real world, the performance of a nearly endless recurrent waterfall of computer code shares very little in common with any biological organism.

But this kind of imaginary "what kind of friend would FCP-X be to ME if it was capable of friendship." is fun. But not really all that useful, IMO.

FWIW.

"Before speaking out ask yourself whether your words are true, whether they are respectful and whether they are needed in our civil discussions."-Justice O'Connor


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Craig Seeman
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 16, 2012 at 10:19:38 pm

[Marvin Holdman] "More like they won the world series, fired the championship team and came back as an expansion team."

A reasonably analogy. That's why I mentioned they could be like a team that dumped its veterans too soon. This gets back to the lack of a transition period which is very unlike Apple.

[Marvin Holdman] "Apple can keep making the bet, over and over, until eventually it does hit."

They do do that. Remember the first iPhone had no outside apps at all. The jailbreakers keep throwing in features and, over time, Apple seems to adopt some of them.

I do hope to be holding the number on the hit. $299 is not a big risk investment for me as an end user.



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Michael Gissing
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 17, 2012 at 12:17:14 am

I loved the way John Cleese explained the difference between the USA and the British -
"We speak English - you don't. When we have a World's Series anything we invite the rest of the world to compete. And when we greet our head of State, we only go down on one knee"....an obvious Clinton reference. I am Australian so I mention this as an amused outsider.

Seriously though, sport metaphors even when understood are rather poor at describing the machinations of a very large corporation.


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David Roth Weiss
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 17, 2012 at 12:21:55 am

[Michael Gissing] "Seriously though, sport metaphors even when understood are rather poor at describing the machinations of a very large corporation.
"


Especially those large corporations who write and rewrite the rules of the game with no consideration of the integrity of either the game or the players.

David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist
David Weiss Productions, Inc.
Los Angeles
http://www.drwfilms.com

Don't miss my new Creative Cow Podcast: Bringing "The Whale" to the Big Screen:
http://library.creativecow.net/weiss_roth_david/Podcast-Series-2-MikeParfit...

POST-PRODUCTION WITHOUT THE USUAL INSANITY ™


Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Business & Marketing and Apple Final Cut Pro forums.


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Craig Seeman
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 17, 2012 at 2:02:13 am

[Michael Gissing] "sport metaphors even when understood are rather poor at describing the machinations of a very large corporation."

In the USA most sports teams and leagues are large corporations.
I think the amount of money spent on player development and salaries may dwarf the cost of some software development.



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John Kirkilis
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 17, 2012 at 8:32:38 am

At the risk of alienating even more non-US sports fans, perhaps basketball would make for a more apt sports metaphor. How long did it take high-schoolers Kevin Garnet, Kobe Bryant, Lebron James, Dwight Howard to be dominant in the NBA?

p.s. I went to high school with the late Mark Fidrych.


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Marvin Holdman
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 17, 2012 at 2:36:09 pm

You have to keep things simple for us Americans (motivation for FCPx?). We could have used a football reference (or as us simple American's say, "soccer") but we would have had to do too much googling to come up with proper analogies. Humble pardon's to our international friends for such self-absorption. It's a generational thing. We're ALMOST ready to be a part of the world.

Marvin Holdman
Production Manager
Tourist Network
8317 Front Beach Rd, Suite 23
Panama City Beach, Fl
phone 850-234-2773 ext. 128
cell 850-585-9667
skype username - vidmarv


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Joseph Owens
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 18, 2012 at 7:35:02 pm

[Craig Seeman] " like a team that dumped its veterans too soon."

I was at the #65 Yankees' Old Timers Game last June. Yes, the New York Yankees are a corporation, with a billion-dollar valuation. And their history is long and illustrious enough to have started having old timers' games 65 years ago.

I saw things I thought I never would. Yogi Berra, Joe Torre, Reggie Jackson, Lou Pinella and about 46 other icos of the sport. Tino Martinez hit a home run into the left field bleachers during the two-inning game between the "Bombers" and the "Clippers". Talk about a living Field of Dreams.

And believe it or not, the "closer" in the regular game versus the Colorado Rockies was Mariano Rivera, who is actually "average age" for some of the old timers, and is one of the senior citizens of MLB, and currently holds the records in his category. For those who aren't familiar to the game -- a "closer" is the watertight pitcher that comes in to pitch the last inning who "closes down" the opposing team, sealing the win.

Too bad Apple eats its young. They trade out and retire their stars before they can even reach maturity in most cases.

jPo

You mean "Old Ben"? Ben Kenobi?


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Craig Seeman
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 18, 2012 at 8:17:12 pm

[Joseph Owens] "They trade out and retire their stars before they can even reach maturity in most cases."

Maybe a good analogy is that Apple is much like former baseball team owner Charlie Finely (Oakland A's).
You'll have to wait until tomorrow to read this.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Finley

While not a perfect comparison, he was known for trying to change the rules, wanted orange baseballs, 3 balls instead of 4 for a walk I believe.

He succeeded with the Designated Hitter rule though.

He was known for wanting to trade or sell players while at their peak.

Sorry for those who are being hit with all the Baseball comparisons.
I was the MLB Post Production Video Engineer when the "Avid dropping Mac" announcement happened so all this ties together in my head.



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Herb Sevush
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 18, 2012 at 8:19:08 pm

[Craig Seeman] "I was the MLB Post Production Video Engineer"

Phoenix productions?

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Craig Seeman
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 18, 2012 at 9:05:36 pm

[Herb Sevush] "Phoenix productions?"

I was there for the transition. They were moving from Phoenix to their own Post. They shared space for a bit while the new facility was being built. It was at the start of the split that I came on because they could no longer use Phoenix equipment or Engineering.



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Herb Sevush
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 18, 2012 at 9:19:37 pm

Craig -

I spent a happy 5 years or so, starting in '86, doing baseball home video projects - mostly Yankee stuff. I got to work with a lot of the classic Yankee stars - Mantle, Ford , B. Martin, then current players like Mattingly, Ricky Henderson... My son never forgave me for moving into cooking shows.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Richard Herd
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 17, 2012 at 7:00:06 pm

And you can't use him everyday!


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kim krause
Re: arstechnica article on FCPX
on Jan 17, 2012 at 9:12:39 pm

craig, once again you and i are in tune with what's really happening in the industry. it's just that we are a few years ahead of everyone else. thats what happens when you have forward thinking abilities. it's a curse i've learned to live with!


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Neil Sadwelkar
Discussion on baseball
on Jan 18, 2012 at 5:19:48 pm

Discussion on baseball is what this thread is about.

For the minority of humanity that does not understand the game of baseball, a large part of this thread is devoid of meaningful information.

-----------------------------------
Neil Sadwelkar
neilsadwelkar.blogspot.com
twitter: fcpguru
FCP Editor, Edit systems consultant
Mumbai India


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moody glasgow
Re: Discussion on baseball
on Jan 18, 2012 at 5:44:00 pm

[Neil Sadwelkar] "For the minority of humanity that does not understand the game of baseball, a large part of this thread is devoid of meaningful information"

Excellent! Many threads seem to go down the "baseball" route these days.

moody glasgow
smoke/flame


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Richard Herd
Re: Discussion on baseball
on Jan 18, 2012 at 6:58:35 pm

It really is a blast when you're at the game. If you haven't had a chance to attend a baseball game, I hope you get to soon.


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