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Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)

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Craig RussillRoy
Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 30, 2011 at 9:25:19 am

Hi Guys, first of all may you all have a very good year in 2012 ! So when Blackmagic buys AVID and slashes it to $299 what impact is that going to have on the FCPX market ?

if you think about it - it makes sense for them to do this - Blackmagic, in particular Grant is a Post guy from way back, he loves buying relics and bringing them back to life, Divinci for one, VooDoo64 another.

AVID is a cornerstone in all the production markets and to have that many seats that will not change , if BM gone in and save this company it is a win win, right ?

We have heard of the cuts and Craig can dig up financial reports to, pardon the pun - cows come home.

I could see AVID being in every school, every college, every broadcaster and most of all already in every film studio.

I think Adobe would implode, Apple give away FCPX and media 100 would finally die the slow death it has been doing for the past 10 years

Whats your thought ?

Adstream London, England

4 x Mac Pros, FCP7, 4 x Flip Factories, 35 x Rhozet Carbon Coders, Offices Globally


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Dennis Radeke
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 30, 2011 at 1:05:43 pm

What a racy thread to start the weekend! ;-)

I think the idea is intriguing but complicated. Whereas BMD has purchased companies in the past, they have been a single product line and the size of the purchase has been reasonably small. Avid has a $300M market cap and would likely be on the block for something on the order of 2X or more.

More importantly, I would Avid's many product lines as difficult to consolidate. For example, how does Sibelius fit into BMD? M-Audio/Euphonix and Digidesign are all audio companies... Do you shoehorn an Intensity to work with Pinnacle Studio? There are probably a half a dozen more examples I could use.

BMD is more along the lines of Adobe anyway - they believe in open partnerships and open workflows wherever possible. DaVinci is certainly an example of that. Buying Avid would suddenly turn many of their partners into competitors. Not a problem per se, but it has to factor into their calculations.

Lastly, Avid is losing money consistently quarter over quarter. As BMD, buying your biggest company ever and then lowering the Media Composer price to $299 (or even $999) is not the way to make you return to profitability.

For those reasons (and probably a few more), I don't see this happening, but it is an intriguing idea.

And, for clarity sake,
Dennis - Adobe guy...

PS - this is my personal opinion and does not represent the opinion of Adobe.


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Paul Jay
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 30, 2011 at 3:04:06 pm

If they dump all the pinnacle and m-audio crap why not.

But i prefer to see them transforming davinci into a finishing/editing tool.


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Gary Hazen
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 30, 2011 at 4:23:55 pm

[Craig RussillRoy] "So when Blackmagic buys AVID and slashes it to $299 what impact is that going to have on the FCPX market ?"

I don't think BMD, Avid or Adobe is interested in competing with Apple's price point. They will let Apple have the consumer market and focus on the professionals.
*** Cue rant from Bill Davis about the use of the term "professionals" ***

A better question:
What has the FCPX debacle done for Avid?

Take a look at the BMD home page: http://www.blackmagic-design.com/
Featuring Terranex, DaVinci and 2 mentions of Avid. Nothing about FCP or Apple. Times have changed indeed.

If Avid manages to get their share price headed in the right direction they will owe Apple a Thank You card at the end of the year. Perhaps Dennis Radeke has already sent them a Thank You card on behalf of Adobe.


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Bill Davis
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 31, 2011 at 7:41:50 am

*** Cue rant from Bill Davis about the use of the term "professionals" ***

Deeply sorry to disappoint, but I'm totally roped with projects for the next 3 weeks. Barely have time to breathe.(yes they will all be produced in in X/Motion5!)

Work appears to have broken loose among the local and so/cal clients - so irons must be struck whilst cherry red.

No time for rants. But will keep reading and keep the Rant-o-lator 5000 polished up for when the work is finished!

Till then the rule is as passed down from a relative who used to work at Chiat/DayLA in their salad days...

"If you don't come in Saturday, don't bother coming in Sunday..."

Happy New Year one and all!

"Before speaking out ask yourself whether your words are true, whether they are respectful and whether they are needed in our civil discussions."-Justice O'Connor


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Chris Harlan
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 31, 2011 at 9:32:43 am

[Bill Davis] ""If you don't come in Saturday, don't bother coming in Sunday...""

Okay. That's funny.


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Tim Wilson
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Jun 6, 2012 at 5:15:14 pm

[Chris Harlan] "[Bill Davis] ""If you don't come in Saturday, don't bother coming in Sunday...""

Okay. That's funny."


I laughed every time they told me that when I worked at Avid. And they said it PLENTY. And meant it.

But I still laughed.


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Craig Seeman
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 30, 2011 at 7:10:40 pm

I can see Avid either being sold or they sell off components to go back to "core business" as some companies do in their situation.

I can see Blackmagic liking Media Composer thought they'd want to tied it to Blackmagic hardware just as DaVinci seems to be. Then they could tie the two together as well.

Blackmagic might replicate what they've done with DaVinci Resolve in that they would have a light version and a $995 version.

In many respects Blackmagic looks like the new Avid. They sell hardware and now software that's tied to the hardware. I can't say that Avid as a whole would work for them (can't say that it wouldn't though) but Media Composer can fit their business model especially now that they have Resolve.

Of course Avid may find a way out of a 5 years of consecutive loses but sans that . . .



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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 30, 2011 at 7:31:46 pm

indeed. imploded doom writ large. fire, brimstone, editing companies in flame off the shoulder of orion, psycopathic corporations, dead cats and black pentagrams in cupertino. and so on and so forth.


http://www.ogallchoir.net
promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Steve Connor
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 30, 2011 at 8:06:25 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "indeed. imploded doom writ large. fire, brimstone, editing companies in flame off the shoulder of orion, psycopathic corporations, dead cats and black pentagrams in cupertino. and so on and so forth.
"


Welcome back - good Xmas?

"My Name is Steve and I'm an FCPX user"


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 30, 2011 at 11:18:28 pm

nay shabby - meats and wine - your good self?


http://www.ogallchoir.net
promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Steve Connor
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 30, 2011 at 11:36:01 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "nay shabby - meats and wine - your good self?"

All good thanks, ready for 2012?

"FCPX Agitator"


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 31, 2011 at 12:04:59 am

Ready why yes,

but the past drifts as time to these futures no? - why the lovely FCP8 hegemony is treating me fine - its 64 capabilities are well founded, the selective alternate timeline operation is working well, selective linking has proved a revelation. the deep red colour scheme for the new FCP 8.7 was surprising, but after bill davis vouched for it, I went with it wholeheartedly.

the timeline opening into that reconfigured colour room was breathtaking, craig seeman finally publishing his 2012 book on the best use of the new matchbook sized macpro and how to connect the fourteen thunderbolt peripherals was a grisham level read.

but it was when the men of Denis Radeke camp went mano a mano with the men of Randy Ubilos church in mid summer 2012, well then we pulled up a stool, because then pride was at stake.

pride and old grievances between the pair.

not a big game. but a game.


http://www.ogallchoir.net
promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 31, 2011 at 12:11:30 am

essentially -

2012 is, ideally, a fundamental skills test of Apple V Adobe in the editing realm. they have reasonable skin in the game, and some pride to answer.


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Dennis Radeke
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 31, 2011 at 1:19:17 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "2012 is, ideally, a fundamental skills test of Apple V Adobe in the editing realm. they have reasonable skin in the game, and some pride to answer."

I would still leave Avid in the mix. If you want to sum it up, I would say it this way...

1 - Will Apple 'fix' FCP X (not my words here)?
2 - Can Avid get traction with MC6 and start selling and appealing to a wider editing audience (ala Apple and Adobe customers)?
3 - Can Adobe continue to improve Premiere Pro and make it as a 'professional' editor? Note - Again, not my words - I already know it's a professional editor!

That's about as concise a summary as you can make and I think it rings true.


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Daniel Frome
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 31, 2011 at 5:51:52 pm

Premiere Pro is hands down the best engineered editor in terms of performance.

Not gonna lie though - MC6 is a serious contender and it's going to roadblock much of Adobe's venture into the broadcast world for some time to come.


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Jan 1, 2012 at 5:09:10 pm

oh sure, its just that as craig points out, Avid have been losing money every quarter since roughly 1958, so one presumes the law of financial doom gravity is going to get ahold of them at some point..


http://www.ogallchoir.net
promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Chris Harlan
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 30, 2011 at 10:04:46 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "ndeed. imploded doom writ large. fire, brimstone, editing companies in flame off the shoulder of orion, psycopathic corporations, dead cats and black pentagrams in cupertino. and so on and so forth.
"


Pretty much right on. As--I might add--was the Doctor's Christmas special. Not enough Pond, though.


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 30, 2011 at 11:25:25 pm

mmrmm.

oh Pond.


http://www.ogallchoir.net
promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Steve Connor
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 30, 2011 at 11:34:33 pm

[Chris Harlan] "Pretty much right on. As--I might add--was the Doctor's Christmas special. Not enough Pond, though."

True, will be sad to see her go next season

"FCPX Agitator"


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Chris Harlan
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 31, 2011 at 12:27:55 am

Ah! Another fan. My daughter and I are addicts.


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Sam Cole
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 31, 2011 at 12:31:05 am

I think what would be far more profitable AND cheaper for Blackmagic to buy would be the source code for Final Cut Studio 3.
Then they could rework it into 64 bit AND port it to Windows.
Apple would make money out of something they have trashed and be left with their consumer edit system and tell everyone they looked after the pro's by letting someone else take over the app.
Avid will then go down hill even faster as FCP 8 with the power of Blackmagic behind it would prove too competitive.
Adobe will go back to India to get cheap buggy software written to remain competitive.
Edius will be purchased by the Japanese and revitalised.
Vegas will still be a gambling town that Sony will try to buy and Media 100 will still be where it is now.
Can't comment on Lightworks.

Perhaps when Blackmagic reinvent the GOOD version of Final Cut they would rename it "Diva" to save it being confused with FCPX.


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Craig Seeman
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 31, 2011 at 12:42:31 am

[Sam Cole] "I think what would be far more profitable AND cheaper for Blackmagic to buy would be the source code for Final Cut Studio 3.
"


You can't seriously think Apple would feed competitors. As I mentioned in some of my early posts I suspect not everything is theirs and was dropped abruptly due to licensing issues . . . which Macromedia themselves had.



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Neil Sadwelkar
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Jan 2, 2012 at 5:13:54 pm

[Sam Cole] "Adobe will go back to India to get cheap buggy software written to remain competitive."

Meaning what?

If Adobe has been buggy, what does it have to do with the software being written in India?
A fair number of drivers for Apple's Snow Leopard as well as Lion were written in India. Blackmagic have people from India writing Resolve for them. Avid too has Indian software developers on their team. Launch Adobe Photoshop and the splash screen shows up a fair number of software engineers from India.

One could just as easily say many American companies are in dire straits because ______ people people don't the first thing about doing business (fill in appropriate race/ethnic/religious group)

-----------------------------------
Neil Sadwelkar
neilsadwelkar.blogspot.com
twitter: fcpguru
FCP Editor, Edit systems consultant
Mumbai India


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Dennis Radeke
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Jan 2, 2012 at 5:44:40 pm

[Neil Sadwelkar] "[Sam Cole] "Adobe will go back to India to get cheap buggy software written to remain competitive."

Meaning what?

If Adobe has been buggy, what does it have to do with the software being written in India?"


Agreed. There are good software engineers around the world. Currently, Premiere Pro has engineers in many locations, the largest two being Seattle and San Jose. That's the wonderful thing about high-speed Internet and VPN - you're office is anywhere you need it to be.

Oh, and Premiere Pro isn't buggy (at least no more than any other major NLE out there)! ;-)

Dennis - Adobe guy


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MIke Guidotti
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Jan 3, 2012 at 7:40:10 pm

[Sam Cole] "Avid will then go down hill even faster as FCP 8 with the power of Blackmagic behind it would prove too competitive."

You must not know too much about Avid. They have the feature film market cornered, and have had for a while.

They also have a line of audio editing products called Pro Tools. Most commercial music is recorded using this system as well as most TV and Film projects' audio post production and editing.

Just some food for thought...


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Neil Sadwelkar
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Jan 4, 2012 at 4:16:12 am

[MIke Guidotti] "They have the feature film market cornered, and have had for a while."

They've had the feature market covered even when FCP was first introduced. In fact for the first 3-4 years FCP didn't threaten Avid's feature market. But FCP rapidly covered the TV and non-feature market with is orders of magnitude larger in number of seats. That's where Avid lost out.

Now, with the ease of acquiring an Avid system and with lowered price, they are for the first time seeing healthy numbers. But even now in the large TV market, FCP has it covered. FCP X may be a setback, but some of the lost seats to FCP will probably end up with Premiere too.

The BM and Aja Kona integration with Avid is a master move, though. And this will make a huge effect to sales. Avid has to just get the price right. I still think the $1000-1500 range is the sweet spot.

-----------------------------------
Neil Sadwelkar
neilsadwelkar.blogspot.com
twitter: fcpguru
FCP Editor, Edit systems consultant
Mumbai India


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Tim Wilson
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Jun 6, 2012 at 5:25:52 pm

I don't see it happening, because BMD would have to buy the whole kit and kaboodle. You can't spin off Media Composer.

To put it another way, how attractive is Avid shared storage to you without Media Composer? The way it shares is through managing AVID metadata and projects. Subtract MC, and it's Just A Bunch of Disks (or in storage parlance, JBOD.)

Related, when I was there, ISIS topped out at 192TB, and the most frequent request I heard was to make it bigger -- to run more seats of Media Composer. No MC, no ISIS.

What about Avid I/O? I think it's underrated...but worth zero without MC.

Interplay is fantastic, some of the most remarkable networked workflow you'll ever see -- for Media Composer and its relatives.

Services? The big money is supporting systems build around Media Composer.

Lather, rinse, repeat, across the product line.

Except for Pro Tools. LOL

You can say that Avid makes most of its money off of hardware, storage and services -- but none of it sells without MC. That other stuff is muscle, but MC is the spine. Remove it, and the rest just flops around on the ground.

Except for Pro Tools. LOL

So either Grant buys everything that Avid makes, or Avid stays in the non-software business with BMD customers virtually their ONLY customers. I don't see it.

FWIW, I asked Grant this DIRECTLY when we spoke a few months ago. Here's his reply...which you'll note is kind of a non-answer. :-)
http://magazine.creativecow.net/article/blackmagic-designs-grant-petty-we-w...

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou



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Bernhard Grininger
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Dec 31, 2011 at 11:35:36 am

Hello,

I think it would be much better for BMD to aquire
Woodman Labs.

They manifacture the GoPro Cameras and most important:
they own Cineform !!!

In these times it would be an absolute deal-maker for BMD
to deliver a high-end intermediate codec with their hardware
that virtually runs on every host-NLE BMD hardware is working with.

Not to forget the HyperDeck product line.

Best wishes for 2012,
Bernhard


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Walter Soyka
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Jan 2, 2012 at 7:09:15 pm

I'm not convinced that lowering Avid's price would make it dramatically more appealing.

I think that all the major NLEs are now essentially cheap enough that we can pick them for workflow or feature set, rather than price. For some projects, FCPX is a better choice than Media Composer or Premiere Pro. For others, MC or PrP may be vastly superior.

I really believe Oliver Peters nailed it in this post [link]:
[Oliver Peters] "I do believe I'm starting to see a divide in where the NLEs are going based on a lot of things I've seen posted here and in other places over the past 6 months. I think that in general, film editors, broadcast TV stations and post facilities will likely trend back to either Avid or maybe over to Premiere Pro. I think companies with in-house "creative" post operations (like ad agencies, media marketing companies - the sort of model typified by @Radical Media) may very well trend over to FCP X."


It's a very interesting idea: each of the major NLE developers can pursue different paths, with different strengths and weaknesses, that appeal to different market segments with different needs.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Chris Conlee
Re: Blackmagic to buy AVID (My Speculation Only)
on Jan 3, 2012 at 11:41:32 pm

[Walter Soyka] "It's a very interesting idea: each of the major NLE developers can pursue different paths, with different strengths and weaknesses, that appeal to different market segments with different needs."

I tend to think you're correct on this. As mentioned in another post, Avid pretty much has the feature film world locked up. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Avid's prices actually GO UP again, because that's their market, and those people will pay for a high end tool that's well supported and dependable. It's a new world, and each of these firms is going to have to find their way.

Chris


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