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Aindreas Gallagher
we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 12:46:44 am








FCP studio gone - color gone, dvd studio gone, shake gone, soundtrack pro gone, FCP server gone, xraid gone,
and now the macpro tower standing in most facilities is about gone.

We can keep arguing, but sooner or later we're going to start hallucinating from dehydration.

People: apple. is. draining. the. entire. mac professional. pool.

it's over.


(I thought I might as well go for the apocalyptic)


http://www.ogallchoir.net
promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Craig Seeman
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 1:18:40 am

So you think Avid's steady decline is a better business model to service the Pros? If you want apocalyptic Avid may well be the exquisite band playing on the Titanic. The band is great. The ship and the passengers are elite. It's taking on water.

The business approach to service Pros is going to change radically. It's that or die.



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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 1:44:38 am

we're all going to end up in a tumbled mess on windows at this rate craig. Its going to end up the only place to go, and their start menu just turned into windows phone. this is all going to get a lot, lot less fun from here on out. and possibly a lot more expensive if we're completely hived off from the herd.

who realistically thinks the next (last?) version of the mac os is likely usable for video professionals?

it's the first time I actually genuinely thought that.

the days of FCP studio are going to end up being eulogised. particularly if avid goes under now too.

editing is sliding into a hole here.


http://www.ogallchoir.net
promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Craig Seeman
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 2:28:47 am

[Aindreas Gallagher] "we're all going to end up in a tumbled mess on windows at this rate craig. Its going to end up the only place to go, and their start menu just turned into windows phone."

But this is because even Windows is re-evaluating the market regards what an OS should offer. The point is the entire market is changing.

To me Macs and Thunderbolt will give me maximum flexibility (with other Macs at least). Actually Asus and Acer have announced support for Thunderbolt as well. I'll bet it'll be on laptops first. Somebody is thinking that all this high speed I/O is in demand on laptops the most . . . because pros don't use laptops, you think?

[Aindreas Gallagher] "the days of FCP studio are going to end up being eulogised. particularly if avid goes under now too.

editing is sliding into a hole here."


All the NLE makers are grappling with this and certainly the Pros are as well. When Pros paid $100k for a system it didn't need to be a large market to be profitable relative to the low cost masses.

What we have is Avid and Apple both had portions (although sometimes different portions) of the Pro market and it are reacting to the changes in the economics of the Pro market.

Adobe Premiere Pro didn't' have that market (but certainly After Effects was there but there are certainly higher end contenders as well in motion graphics) and they're trying to get further in that market. If all they pick up are the FCP pieces it may be limited growth. Of course Adobe, like Apple (and unlike Avid) isn't solely dependent on the Pro market. They're diversified companies.

Adobe is trying to make PP the logical FCP replacement. Apple is trying to expand the market base for professional I/O, storage, etc throughout their product line while they play a bit of catchup with their NLE.

Meanwhile systems builders have to deal with a market in which OS, hardware, NLEs themselves, are undergoing such rapid change that ROI has to be fairly quick because next year may look very different than this year.

The "saving grace" is relative to the past, the costs of changing has dropped to its lowest every. It would seem the model has changed from "spend $100k and you're OK for 5 years" to "spend $10k and be prepared to spend another $10k next year." Of course you have to factor in things like "equipment burn in" and an annual learning curve.

I think people are upset because we went through a period of stability XPs long life on Windows, the rarely changing Avid, the steady state of FCP and incremental software and hardware improvements on Mac. We're now going through a period of rapid change and there's little time to evaluate the change.

So the "dependable" Avid ship has been taking on water for years now.

Adobe doing its best to explain to them why they should be using something they've "overlooked" for years.

Apple doing "magic tricks" with new hardware and software and then trying to explain by pulling a select few into a back room to explain the magic because they don't seem to want to give away how the trick works in public.

And we have Windows working towards there variant of the iOS experience as well as moving to shorter OS update schedules since the 95, 98, 00 , XP run with NT in there as well.

Wow, everyone keeps moving the cheese!
No wonder everyone is a nervous wreck about our livelihoods.
It certainly is justified.



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David Lawrence
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 1:53:38 am

I think the big potential winner here is Adobe.

Here's my recipe for how they take over the professional pond:

1) Make Premiere Pro awesome. Fix the weird quirks and make configuring sequences more flexible and intuitive.

2) Have Wes Plate write a FCP7 project import plugin for PP. No XML needed, import a FCP7 project directly from the import menu in the program. Make it work 100%. If you can't make it work 100%, create a clean way for the user to manually resolve conflicts and get 100% translation. You can do it!

3) Get Walter Murch to cut a feature with it.

4) Profit!

Seriously, if they do this they will own the FCP user base.

_______________________
David Lawrence
art~media~design~research
propaganda.com
publicmattersgroup.com
facebook.com/dlawrence
twitter.com/dhl


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Aindreas Gallagher
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 1:56:01 am

yep.

god please let them bat PPro 6 cleanly out of the park.


http://www.ogallchoir.net
promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics


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Craig Seeman
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 2:48:43 am

[Aindreas Gallagher] "god please let them bat PPro 6 cleanly out of the park."

So we all seem to be hopping that someone does that. That's exactly the kind of insecurity in the market right now. With FCP7 gone, no one has hit the home run yet.

The picture might be clearer after
MC6
PP6
FCPX 10.1 (or at least 10.0.5 or thereabouts).

And we have to see how Thunderbolt progresses (on both Mac and Windows).



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Steve Connor
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 5:57:47 pm

[Aindreas Gallagher] "yep.

god please let them bat PPro 6 cleanly out of the park.
"


It won't help you Aindreas, Avid is in your future whether you like it or not :)

Let's see what MC6 brings when they officially announce this week, the transition may not be as bad as you think.

"My Name is Steve and I'm an FCPX user"


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David Roth Weiss
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 2:00:02 am

[David Lawrence] "Seriously, if they do this they will own the FCP user base."

I'd say we're only about a heartbeat away from that scenario right now David.

The only obstacle would be what Avid might have to say about it, and I for one seriously doubt Avid is really on the ropes to the extent others here seem to think they are.

David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist
David Weiss Productions, Inc.
Los Angeles
http://www.drwfilms.com

Don't miss my new Creative Cow Podcast: Bringing "The Whale" to the Big Screen:
http://library.creativecow.net/weiss_roth_david/Podcast-Series-2-MikeParfit...

POST-PRODUCTION WITHOUT THE USUAL INSANITY ™


Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Business & Marketing and Apple Final Cut Pro forums.


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Craig Seeman
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 2:35:24 am

[David Roth Weiss] "The only obstacle would be what Avid might have to say about it, and I for one seriously doubt Avid is really on the ropes to the extent others here seem to think they are."

It's a slow decline. There's a big tizzy going on about the upgrade costs for a full blown ProTools 10 HD system in some audio pro circles. Avid is really having a problem. They're not sinking fast but it's been a steady leak for several years now and it seems FCP to MC wasn't much of a bump for them.

[David Roth Weiss] "I'd say we're only about a heartbeat away from that scenario right now David. "

I think there's still a lot of nervousness about them in Feature Film market and maybe the Broadcast market as well. They're making gains for sure but they've got a long way to go. I think PP6 sales will be a much better indicator than PP5.5 cross grades



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Richard Cardonna
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 3:26:34 am

When Wes Plate closes shop and goes to work as an employee, their must be somthing to say of the state of the content business. He saw something we have not... yet
rcardonna


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Michael Gissing
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 3:35:20 am

[Richard Cardonna] " When Wes Plate closes shop and goes to work as an employee, their must be somthing to say of the state of the content business. He saw something we have not... yet
rcardonna"


Or maybe he wants a regular wage. Perhaps he has children who need an education. I am not reading much into the Duck situation other than Adobe is getting serious and picking up the fallout of the FCPX implosion. If Wes thought the industry was in ruin why would he stay with it at all?

Sure, broadcast is in a decline. But people predicted the cinema would die when TV arrived and were wrong. Now with the internet and the democratising of content distribution, there is still a market for professional story telling once the youtube hype flattens. There are one billion more potential viewers than there were 12 years ago.


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Craig Seeman
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 7:28:16 am

[Richard Cardonna] "When Wes Plate closes shop and goes to work as an employee, their must be somthing to say of the state of the content business. He saw something we have not... yet"

I think he saw that independent translator apps would be on the way out and that developers would do more to build these in. Which is what Adobe seems to be doing and why they hired Wes. It may well be that Wes will build in and out support between Adobe products and FCPX and maybe even FCP7 which would make a lot of people happy.



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Michael Gissing
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 3, 2011 at 1:25:56 am

[Craig Seeman] "I think he saw that independent translator apps would be on the way out and that developers would do more to build these in."

Except FCPX that is relying on third party developers to do more. Ergo Wes doesn't think FCPX is a winner.

Can't have it both ways Craig.


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Craig Seeman
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 3, 2011 at 1:50:24 am

[Michael Gissing] "Except FCPX that is relying on third party developers to do more. Ergo Wes doesn't think FCPX is a winner.
Can't have it both ways Craig."


I think you're a bit confused. Translation is being built into apps directly. Resolve understands FCPX through FCPXML for example. There will be little need for products like Automatic Duck's tools.
Adobe hired Wes to built this into their products. That's the standard.

Adobe products will handle FCPX just as Resolve does . . . just as others will as they add them in house.



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Michael Gissing
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 3, 2011 at 1:58:03 am

[Craig Seeman] "I think you're a bit confused. Translation is being built into apps directly"

No confusion at all. FCPX from day one had only Duck to get audio out. Even with the .1 update it still requires third party apps to do the XML translation. If Apple subscribed to your theory then they would be putting in the translator for all the formats we used to have in FCP7 plus. Instead they're saying "here's the XML hooks, off you go and develop interchange with us because we don't have any translation software at all ourselves.

Does FCPX import anything from PP or AVID, OMFs or AFF? No. Still confused at the logic of your argument?


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 3, 2011 at 2:17:48 am

This might sound dumb, but do you have to pay Avid to add OMF capability to an application?

Does anyone know any jokes that have nothing to do with a particular video package? We need some levity.


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Michael Gissing
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 3, 2011 at 2:25:09 am

[Jeremy Garchow] "This might sound dumb, but do you have to pay Avid to add OMF capability to an application?"

AAF requires licensing. That was an important part of the cost for Automatic Duck software. I don't think AVID gets anything anymore for OMF and frankly why should they.

Can't think of any editor jokes Jeremy, but this place does need to lighten up.


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Jeremy Garchow
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 3, 2011 at 2:48:31 am

[Michael Gissing] "AAF requires licensing. That was an important part of the cost for Automatic Duck software. I don't think AVID gets anything anymore for OMF and frankly why should they."

I knew AAF does, but I couldn't find anything on OMF. If a new application wants to add OMF, where do they get the recommendations?

I'll start us off.

And the barman says, "We don't serve time travelers here."

A time traveler walks in to a bar.







Its too bad because if the time traveler was any good, he would have seen the bar coming, and ducked.







The time traveler says to the barman, "Wow, it's been a long time since I've been here." The barman chuckles and says, "That's a good one! Your first drink is on the house on occasion of our grand opening."

I'll be here all week


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Craig Seeman
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 3, 2011 at 4:27:47 am

[Michael Gissing] "Does FCPX import anything from PP or AVID, OMFs or AFF? No. Still confused at the logic of your argument?"

Actually I think all this will be coming.
I'm sure Wes will be building it in to all Adobe products for example.
Just as Resolve now can.
As I expect ProTools will.
All these are going to start happening by the developers.
I think Wes saw that coming. The market for $500 translators would shrink.
Adobe hiring him is the example. Developers building it all in so their apps can talk to each other.



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Chris Harlan
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 7:07:06 am

[Craig Seeman] "They're not sinking fast but it's been a steady leak for several years now and it seems FCP to MC wasn't much of a bump for them."

I think you might be reading that wrong. It seemed to me that it was a pretty big bump in sales, but because of the drastic discounts, did not pay well. If the new users who bought in upgrade en-masse with 6, it might pay off.


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Craig Seeman
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 7:24:35 am

[Chris Harlan] "did not pay well"
Profit is all unfortunately. They lost money and laid off 200 people. That bothers me because, given what it takes to find and train talent, I'd think if they were anticipating an upward trend soon, they bite the bullet and hold on the staff through the MC6 upgrades and see where they stood.

I can't predict the upgrade price but I'm hearing lots of unhappiness in some quarters on the ProTools 10 HD upgrade costs. That Price ranges from around $1000 to $2500.

Then again MC 5 to MC 5.5 was $149 download and $395 for box and that might not be enough to turn around a company that's been losing money for some years now. Avid doesn't really make their money from NLE sales so I don't thing this will dig them out. They make more money selling hardware (just like Apple). I think they'd have to hope facilities buy Unity and Isis products for them to turn the corner.



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Chris Harlan
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 4:25:26 pm

[Craig Seeman] "[Chris Harlan] "did not pay well"
Profit is all unfortunately. They lost money and laid off 200 people. That bothers me because, given what it takes to find and train talent, I'd think if they were anticipating an upward trend soon, they bite the bullet and hold on the staff through the MC6 upgrades and see where they stood.
"


Craig, these are hard times, and Avid is not the only company having difficulty navigating in them. I certainly can't--and don't want to--argue with you that they may ultimately fail. And, you are right, I was perhaps being overly optimistic about 6 release. The point I wanted to make, though, was that the cross-grade was an attempt to invest in their future by enlarging their base, and from that standpoint it may succeed as a bump. An Avid may succeed as a leaner company, since the commoditization of NLE software is probably nearing its end, and the price of specialty equipment may again scale upward.


[Craig Seeman] "I can't predict the upgrade price but I'm hearing lots of unhappiness in some quarters on the ProTools 10 HD upgrade costs. That Price ranges from around $1000 to $2500.
"


Actually, I thought it was beginning around ten grand. Of course, HD will not be the norm as multiprocessor CPUs can now generally duplicate the performance of dedicated hardware. For those who actually need it, though, it might be worthwhile. Commoditization seems to be backing away from high performance CPU arrays in favor of mobility and battery life, which will begin to give them a cost equivalency of dedicated hardware.


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Herb Sevush
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 4:32:43 pm

[Chris Harlan] "since the commoditization of NLE software is probably nearing its end, and the price of specialty equipment may again scale upward."

I agree totally and think this is an essential point. As consumer computers better serve their core constituencies they become less useable to high end users. The brief window of time where the mass market computer and the needs of the high end user coincided is nearing an end. It may be that the future of editing is with a higher priced workstation running Linux - and I don't know that there's anything wrong with that model.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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kim krause
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 3:10:49 pm

so what you're really saying is their greed and poor management are the real problem. they tried to take advantage of a situation and karma is now biting them in the ass...it doesn't take a genius to figure out that if you sell your product for too cheap then you won't make any money no matter how many units you ship. i believe the same thing happened in the us automotive market years ago and forced the top 3 into the brink of foreclosure.


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Chris Harlan
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 3:47:57 pm

[kim krause] "so what you're really saying is" lots of blather

No, Kim, that's not what I'm really saying, but that has never stopped you from twisting people's words into something to use as a base for one of your pointless rants.


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kim krause
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 3:54:41 pm

pointless? the whole point is to make people think and get them out of their lazy ass comfort zones. and i'd love to know what words i've twisted around...maybe i read things differently and respond in the manner i do because of that but it is no way meant to twist as you imply. i simply read the words, interpret the meaning then respond. in fact quite often i am the one being interpreted incorrectly or misquoted...thats where superior logic comes in...hmmm maybe i should be spock and craig can be kirk! fascinating! burp, fart...oops sorry i was just releasing some gas form this forum!


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Chris Harlan
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 4:00:35 pm

[kim krause] "pointless? the whole point is to make people think and get them out of their lazy ass comfort zones. and i'd love to know what words i've twisted around...maybe i read things differently and respond in the manner i do because of that but it is no way meant to twist as you imply. i simply read the words, interpret the meaning then respond. in fact quite often i am the one being interpreted incorrectly or misquoted...thats where superior logic comes in...hmmm maybe i should be spock and craig can be kirk! fascinating! burp, fart...oops sorry i was just releasing some gas form this forum!
"


Okay, Spock, than lets just leave it at: I simply read your words, interpreted the meaning, then responded.


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Herb Sevush
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 4:10:34 pm

[kim krause] "it doesn't take a genius to figure out that if you sell your product for too cheap then you won't make any money no matter how many units you ship. i believe the same thing happened in the us automotive market years ago and forced the top 3 into the brink of foreclosure."

It seems you know as little about the NLE world as you do about the US auto industry. There were many reasons for the Auto bankruptcies, but none of them were because they sold their products too cheaply.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
---------------------------
nothin' attached to nothin'
"Deciding the spine is the process of editing" F. Bieberkopf


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Oliver Peters
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 5:21:12 pm

[kim krause] "so what you're really saying is their greed and poor management are the real problem. they tried to take advantage of a situation and karma is now biting them in the ass.."

Unfortunately Avid doesn't have the luxury of doing what Apple has done over the past year or two and is continuing to do. Namely:

1. Eliminate enterprise hardware (Xserve, Xserve RAID, Mac Pro maybe?).

2. Eliminate enterprise software (FC Server).

3. Eliminate most of their content creation tools (Color, STP, DVD SP, Cinema Tools, FCP, FCE).

4. Throw their third-party ecosystem into turmoil.

5. Negate any built up skills that their prime editing users might have had (FCP 7 versus FCP X).

Avid has certainly made plenty of mistakes, but in this business, Apple has very quickly turned from a company, whose products were no-brainers, into one where the products are increasingly hard to justify. It's different for individuals, but small to large production companies and post houses need suppliers with predictable consistency and that sure isn't Apple.

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Oliver Peters
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 2:59:54 pm

[Craig Seeman] "There's a big tizzy going on about the upgrade costs for a full blown ProTools 10 HD system in some audio pro circles."

While that is true, it mainly applies to their hardware-based system. You can buy full-blown Pro Tools software (not just the LE or M versions), which will run on most third-party audio hardware, for a few hundred bucks.

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Craig Seeman
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 3:19:32 pm

[Oliver Peters] "While that is true, it mainly applies to their hardware-based system. You can buy full-blown Pro Tools software (not just the LE or M versions), which will run on most third-party audio hardware, for a few hundred bucks."

But that's not making Avid enough money just as Media Composer upgrades don't make Avid enough money. Avid makes money selling hardware and they're not doing very well at that these days.



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Oliver Peters
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 3:29:15 pm

[Craig Seeman] "But that's not making Avid enough money just as Media Composer upgrades don't make Avid enough money. Avid makes money selling hardware and they're not doing very well at that these days."

I don't disagree and I don't have a solution. Clearly if you scale down the income, you have to scale down the expenses. The trouble is that they've been pushed into a race to the bottom pricewise.

Others, like Autodesk and Quantel, have managed to stay at the upper end of cost but have restructured so that income covers operational and R&D costs. In Autodesk's case, they have deeper pockets from the CADCAM world and pretty much own everything 3D, so it's science and video games that pays the freight and allows the Media and Entertainment division to do well (I think). Quantel worked a leveraged buyout by management, employees and venture capitol years ago and built a company around that.

The much broader question is whether a mid-sized company can even survive in this current software world. Seems like the options are only large, commodity-driven companies (Adobe or Apple) or small, focused, niche operations (Quantel, Autodesk, Red, etc.).

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Craig Seeman
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 4:18:25 pm

[Oliver Peters] "I don't disagree and I don't have a solution. Clearly if you scale down the income, you have to scale down the expenses. The trouble is that they've been pushed into a race to the bottom pricewise."

They need to examine their business model. Either the commodify and broaden their reach (like Apple) or the aim for professionals with deep pockets and provide what Apple won't. I think both Apple and Adobe are diversified companies (in different ways) and Avid is not to any great extent. They can't compete on price especially if they want to server the upper end Pro market. You can't sell high end products and commodity prices and expect to survive. They've boxed themselves into the untenable middle (for them).

[Oliver Peters] "Others, like Autodesk and Quantel, have managed to stay at the upper end of cost but have restructured so that income covers operational and R&D costs."

Probably a better model for Avid but the problem is how can they get back there with Media Composer and other products dropping close to commodity pricing. I think Avid has been attempting low software price with much higher hardware price and that's why they're getting hammered on Pro Tools 10 HD pricing. It's not really a good marketing or business model. I'm not sure how they get out of it except to develop a new high priced software/hardware product line that's also worthy of the price.


[Oliver Peters] "The much broader question is whether a mid-sized company can even survive in this current software world. Seems like the options are only large, commodity-driven companies (Adobe or Apple) or small, focused, niche operations (Quantel, Autodesk, Red, etc.)."

That's right. I think the problem is Avid stuck themselves in an in between place and is failing at both. I wonder if CMX's history is an analogy although maybe not exactly.



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Oliver Peters
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 5:29:23 pm

[Craig Seeman] "That's right. I think the problem is Avid stuck themselves in an in between place and is failing at both. I wonder if CMX's history is an analogy although maybe not exactly."

In a sense, the same is true as a mirror for the economics of running post facilities these days. People are surviving and even thriving at both ends of the spectrum. If you are in the middle and an all-purpose shop, it's hard to stay in business. Just look as established post houses continue to go into bankruptcy.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Jamie Franklin
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 7:38:58 pm

[Oliver Peters] "I don't disagree and I don't have a solution"

Plug and play. Cost. And support.

Every mbox I have owned has been a disaster of epic frustration.

I understand it's a monumental task to bridge everything. But at least get the effin basics down. Port some connection options from even last years model away from firewire. Have a more robust set/up feature set. Get into the Jobs mentality where my grandmother can not only connect the bloody things properly, but have a complete troubleshooting and dummy proof blahdy blah...

Bring the cost down to 300$ for a box, give a more robust version of protools...16 tracks? No 5.1? Wth...

Just some thoughts on getting these bigger ticket items out the door and keep or improve on their user base.

If dropping the price doesn't cut the mustard, at least make it much more user friendly and stable. My box seems to have a life of it's own and it's not even 8 months old...


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Oliver Peters
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 8:02:03 pm

[Jamie Franklin] "Every mbox I have owned has been a disaster of epic frustration."

No mine. Works like a champ with every app I run.

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Richard Cardonna
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 3:36:45 pm

Maybe avid should go the editshare way. giveout the app and sell the hardware.

Richard C


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Craig Seeman
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 4:50:20 pm

[Richard Cardonna] "Maybe avid should go the editshare way. giveout the app and sell the hardware."

I'd really think if done right that might be part of the answer. I've also felt that releasing Avid Free (remember that?) was smart and they dropped it. It could have been their iMovie. The principle idea is use software to sell hardware. If Avid's business model is selling hardware they really need to consider how to pursue that. They could try the backend approach. Buy Unity and/or Isis and get an unlimited license for Media Composer. More MCs the more potential demand for storage. Maybe they think they've headed in that direction with a $2500 MC but that's what drove them into this unviable "middle" (no where land?) between high end hardware and loss leading software.

Supporting and developing the software without the hardware sales sinks them further (so it seems). That they protected sales and marketing only (from what I understand) from the 200 layoffs sound like it may well be just that. Obviously sales and marketing sell the hardware though. This still leads me to believe they have to use the software to sell hardware if they are to survive.



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Richard Cardonna
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 2, 2011 at 3:01:36 am

Maybe Avid hardware should also be open to any software or at least to the main nle like ppro, fcpx,vegas, edius and even lighworks.

Btw avid studio looks remarably like fcpx and also has a magnetic timeline but this can be switched on or off.

R Cardonna


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tony west
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 2:13:10 pm

I don't really see Premiere Pro making a dent in the market place I work in.

I don't know one TV station in town that uses it, and I don't know of any production houses in town that use it. They all either have FCP or Avid (the NBC affiliate has the Grass Valley system and they hate it)

That's not a statement on the the product (pp), I'm just saying if they are going to be in the game they better get going.

Randy Ubilos, who created Premiere Pro left and ended up making FCP X
He must have thought Apple was going to be the last giant standing or why jump ship.

Apple has been hacking away at Avid from the beginning. Putting out FCP well below the price of Avid.

Most of the time it comes down to two titans fighting it out. VHS vs Beta, P2 vs XD Cam

Avid vs FCP

No matter how much any of us like our products at the end of the day the company has to make money selling it to a lot of folks or it won't be around.

You have to expand the base to sell to.

Apple has that part figured out.

I want to keep getting paid to edit in the future. If the worst thing that happens is I have to use FCP X to do it, I can live with that.

Tony West


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Joseph W. Bourke
@Tony - here's a partial list of broadcast stations
on Nov 1, 2011 at 2:27:44 pm

You say no one in broadcast is using PPro. Here's a list of Hearst stations who've dumped AVID for PPro:

Boston, Tampa/St. Pete, Orlando, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Louisville, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Cincinnatti, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, Des Moines, Omaha, Sacramento, Albuquerque, Honolulu, Montery.

That's just a partial list of the 28 stations who dumped AVID and went to Adobe PPro and the Creative Suite. Maybe not in your market, but in lots of other markets. I was at the Manchester, NH station which spearheaded the change. AVID promised the world, but gave us an orphaned HD card, a mass storage sysem which lost more files than it shared, and a big cut in editing productivity.

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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tony west
Re: @Tony - here's a partial list of broadcast stations
on Nov 1, 2011 at 4:12:32 pm

Dude, where did this quote come from

"You say no one in broadcast is using PPro"

I said stations in MY town are not using PPro or any production houses I work at.

Why do people change words and pretend it's what you said? Anyway............

I notice you didn't put St. Louis in there, that's my town.

We will know soon enough who wins the fight.

Tony West



Tony West


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: @Tony - here's a partial list of broadcast stations
on Nov 1, 2011 at 9:00:08 pm

Sorry, Tony - I didn't add "in your town" to my first statement.

But of course since you didn't even say what town you were in, I thought I'd provide a list of towns where they are using it. I just wanted people to know that there are plenty of broadcast stations using it, just as there are plenty of broadcast stations using AVIDs, FCP, and other tools.

I don't even consider it a fight - we use the tools we are given at the jobs we have. I'm now owner of my own company, and I chose PPro. I've used Edit*, AVID, and Premiere Pro, and I happen to prefer Premiere Pro. They are all tools, and each of them can get the job done.

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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tony west
Re: @Tony - here's a partial list of broadcast stations
on Nov 1, 2011 at 11:06:17 pm

I meant fight like battle between Apple and PPro.

Fight to see what company is the last one standing.

I'm glad you like using it. I want everybody to be happy with what they are using.

I know people like PPro, I just wonder why it hasn't taken off here.

I also think FCP X fits right into news. (you mentioned stations)

It's crazy fast and that's what you need in news. It's easy to learn, and more and more stations want reporters to edit their own stuff. Reporter who really are not that good at cutting.

But for me the main thing I want is when a story breaks to walk in and type a topic and have all clips shot on that story come off the server into my Events folder and start cutting. Like a snap!

That's the strong point of X, and when people at stations figure that out it will take off.

I have friend that is the only guy I know that cuts with PPro coming over tonight and I'm going to give him a demo on X

He is a big mac fan and wants to see it. He has always liked macs but couldn't fit one into his budget.

He's good at AE and has never seen motion.

I can let you know what he says if you like.

Tony West


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Oliver Peters
Re: @Tony - here's a partial list of broadcast stations
on Nov 1, 2011 at 11:13:11 pm

[tony west] "It's crazy fast and that's what you need in news. It's easy to learn, and more and more stations want reporters to edit their own stuff. Reporter who really are not that good at cutting."

You've actually touched on one of the target considerations that Apple has mentioned. They point to requests by CNN, BBC and others to have easy editing software for reporters. Since these folks are certainly a professional market, it helps Apple position FCP X as designed for pro users.

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Joseph W. Bourke
Re: @Tony - here's a partial list of broadcast stations
on Nov 1, 2011 at 11:26:13 pm

It makes sense that FCPX could work out in the newsroom. Our photogs at the station I used to work at were also expected to cut the news stories together when they came in from the field, and that was done for a looong time from beta decks and an a/b roll system. The chief photog swore that there was no need for NLEs in the news sphere and that he'd never allow one to be used in his department.

Well, when they finally went with NLEs, they went with AVID Newscutters, which were so complex, the photogs had to take the expensive AVID courses to just get up to speed. Something like FCPX would probably be just what the doctor ordered.

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com


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Craig Seeman
Re: @Tony - here's a partial list of broadcast stations
on Nov 1, 2011 at 11:46:30 pm

[tony west] "But for me the main thing I want is when a story breaks to walk in and type a topic and have all clips shot on that story come off the server into my Events folder and start cutting. Like a snap!

That's the strong point of X, and when people at stations figure that out it will take off."


And that's why I think FCPX is headed for a strong server/san solution. It looks like it should be a seat in a facility with a "brain" controlling the metadata.



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Jeremy Garchow
Re: @Tony - here's a partial list of broadcast stations
on Nov 2, 2011 at 2:01:07 am

[Craig Seeman] "And that's why I think FCPX is headed for a strong server/san solution. It looks like it should be a seat in a facility with a "brain" controlling the metadata."

We have a SAN and I have been testing little by little.

Right now, sharing Events is a no no, and I can't imagine that will change. Imagine two editors working on the same clip and changing the name. Corruption.

What I will say is passing events and projects is easy. You are also allowed to put Projects and Events in whatever folder you want, not only at the root level as with any other local drive. This means you can keep Projects and Events separated by client if you need to by making a new folder for each "SAN location" as FCPX calls it. If you need to work on a new media set, simply remove the San Location, then add the other one, you don't even have to quit fcpx.

As with a lot of things in FCPX it seems that all the control isn't there, but the infrastructure seems to be there.

I don't know for sure, but it seems ripe to support bigger networks right from the app. I do not think this was a mistake or a fluke. I think it looks like FCPX has bigger things in mind that arent quite there yet, but maybe I'm just too optimistic and the pond is drying up and the crocodiles are getting hungry. Look out for the huge bird (sorry, wasn't an eagle)!


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Oliver Peters
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 3:12:03 pm

[tony west] "Randy Ubilos, who created Premiere Pro left and ended up making FCP X
He must have thought Apple was going to be the last giant standing or why jump ship."


Your history is a bit off. Ubilos developed the original Premiere, not Premiere Pro, which is a completely different application and different UI. He went to Apple at the point the team was hired away from Macromedia and when it was questionable if Apple would even survive.

Remember that if you are a software developer - not an NLE developer specifically - then Apple is probably an interesting place. You work on more than just "pro" products. For example, a number of other developers have moved around to consumer apps, OS, iOS, etc. So staying at Apple - or not - has very little to do with a specific NLE or the pro-NLE marketplace.

I suspect Ubilos gets more cudos inside Apple for iMovie than anything to do with FCP or FCP X, because it's more visible to the general market and probably drives more computer and device sales.

Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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tony west
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 4:27:04 pm

"I suspect Ubilos gets more cudos inside Apple for iMovie than anything to do with FCP or FCP X"

I suspect he got kudos from this article when Ken Stone reviewed imovie in 09

And said this

"I saw a number of features in iMovie 09, that I wished were in FCP"

http://www.kenstone.net/fcp_homepage/imovie_09_stone.html

Seems to me like they listened to Stone and did some of what he was asking them to.

That's not your take after reading that review and then looking at what happened?

Tony West


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kim krause
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 3:07:32 pm

craig, why are you and i the only visionaries on these forums. i really think most people are so thick they can't see the writing on the wall. by the sound of it they all want to continue working on clunky old towers loaded with cards for this and that, working with software that hasn't changed in years except for small upgrades in suites that only get rebuilt once every 5 years. i really don't understand the resistance to change. it's like that all want to keep on driving old gas guzzling hot rods from the 60's in the middle of a fuel shortage. new machines make the need for all that extra hardware obsolete. if software is optimized to use the hardware that exist in iMacs and mac minis and aware i say it "iPads", then we won't need all that extra crap. already the latest top end mini runs circles around the towers of just 3 years ago...the same old towers that most of the old guard are still using, filled up and maxed out with all new guts to get them up to speed! maybe its a left brain/right brain thing but i cant help but think the dinosaurs used the same type of logic! i can see the hate mail...denial is the first symptom of unwillingness to adapt!


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Richard Cardonna
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 3:18:06 pm

I guewss that if you and steve where on the Titanic you would be saying

"It wont sink, it wont sink its part of the white Star line and they are commited to its passangers, don't worry something will happen"

RC


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Craig Seeman
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 3:31:43 pm

Mac computer sales have been going up.
Avid on the other hand has been taking on water for years.

Thunderbolt across the entire the entire line is brilliant. It makes power far more portable than PCIe cards. I'm all for a 12 or 16 core "MacMiniPro," a hefty GPU and 3 or 4 Thunderbolt ports. Every Thunderbolt device can walk around the facility rather than buying redundant cards that can't be used even on higher end laptops. Apple has learned how to "commodify" and be profitable. I think you need to follow their financials.



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Richard Cardonna
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 3:45:02 pm

Sorry I should have said Kim and Craig on the titanic

RC


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kim krause
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 3:49:57 pm

i prefer to think of the starship enterprise...to boldly go......he can be spock and i'll be kirk!


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Oliver Peters
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 3:44:59 pm

[Craig Seeman] "I'm all for a 12 or 16 core "MacMiniPro," a hefty GPU and 3 or 4 Thunderbolt ports"

I think you are being REALLY optimistic. Apple has yet to make any software that takes advantage of more than a quad-core machine. Plus performance on the quad CPUs is very good. A machine like you describe is probably more niche than a current Mac Pro. I'm not sure about slots for GPU because of the length, so that really means something custom. I doubt NVIDIA would be on board for that. Intel or AMD only. Maybe. 3 or 4 T-bolt? Maybe two. We'll see.

As far as Mac sales being up - that's driven by laptop sales.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Craig Seeman
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 5:06:52 pm

[Oliver Peters] "I think you are being REALLY optimistic. Apple has yet to make any software that takes advantage of more than a quad-core machine."

If Apple is looking at web delivery in the post workflow and given what H.264 compression takes, I have to think the cores are going to be needed.

In one sense it may be that the ProRes codec is a bit of a ball and chain at the moment since it doesn't take advantage of all the cores and I have to think that's one of the behind the scenes things that may be happening as FCPX progresses. The whole encode, decode, encode workflow has to be very very fast.



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Shawn Miller
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 4:53:04 pm

"craig, why are you and i the only visionaries on these forums."

Wow......



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Walter Soyka
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 6:02:18 pm

[kim krause] "craig, why are you and i the only visionaries on these forums. i really think most people are so thick they can't see the writing on the wall. by the sound of it they all want to continue working on clunky old towers loaded with cards for this and that, working with software that hasn't changed in years except for small upgrades in suites that only get rebuilt once every 5 years."

Kim, it seems you and I have different business models which are both highly dependent on continuous technological improvement.

Since I'm one of the tower guys, though, you assume that I lack a vision of the future? Has it occurred to you that we "old guard tower dinosaurs" might have a plan, too?

Every year, as computers get faster, tower dinosaurs use them to deliver increasingly sophisticated visuals to their clients. With more processing power every year, tower dinosaurs can deliver better visuals in the same amount of time, or a larger quantity of comparable visuals in the same amount of time, or the same quantity of comparable visuals in a shorter amount of time. Tower dinosaurs channel improved computing performance into added value.

Every year, as computers get smaller, you use them to... move from editing in a dedicated room to editing with a laptop in a coffee shop? Then to editing with your iPad on the couch? How does that add value? Or are you finding that it doesn't actually add value, forcing you to lower your rates and take on a larger volume of work?

Miniaturization comes at the cost of performance. Yes, today's laptop outperforms yesterday's workstation -- but today's workstation outperforms today's laptop.

You are pushing for HD editorial on an iPad -- but HD editorial has been doable on a workstation for a decade. How does getting the last decade's deliverable from a smaller device make you a visionary?

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Gary Huff
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 7:32:45 pm

[Walter Soyka]You are pushing for HD editorial on an iPad -- but HD editorial has been doable on a workstation for a decade. How does getting the last decade's deliverable from a smaller device make you a visionary?

I bet he won't ever edit on an iPad (in its current and foreseeable incarnations), other than playing around with it for a few minutes.


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Jamie Franklin
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 7:46:35 pm

[kim krause] "i really think most people are so thick"

Irony is ironic.

Eat more fish. I recommend wild salmon


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alban egger
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 2, 2011 at 10:30:09 am

[kim krause] "already the latest top end mini runs circles around the towers of just 3 years ago...the same old towers that most of the old guard are still using, filled up and maxed out with all new guts to get them up to speed!"

Haha...you sure won´t make friends with your post in here. But you are correct. There is no need for a MacPro anymore in 95% of the cases.
Use a MacMini or an iMac with a quad-core, the GPU does most of the work anyway now and can be easily exchanged every year when the GPU-pipelines accelerate.
All peripherals are hanging on LAN and the thunderbolt with easily enough transferrates to stream 4K in both directions while copying a bluray in the background as well.

it is obvious there is change again coming. Apple is leading, maybe 3 years ahead of Adobe and the rest. I am sure they bring a new MacPro, but sales will keep decreasing. The Photoworld is happy with iMacs, only video-pros are left as a target-group for MacPros with internal RAIDS and PCI-e connections. So there will be the day........when the dinosaurs will find out the time has come to adapt.



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kim krause
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 2, 2011 at 11:28:45 am

i have that effect on people...i always get into arguments with most of them. funny thing is, i am usually proven right and your comments serve to confirm what i'm saying...thanks for being open minded enough to see the point!


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Walter Soyka
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 2, 2011 at 12:33:34 pm

[kim krause] "i have that effect on people...i always get into arguments with most of them. funny thing is, i am usually proven right and your comments serve to confirm what i'm saying...thanks for being open minded enough to see the point!"

Let's debate, Kim.

See my post in the Mac Pro thread, where I outline my business case for high performance, workstation-class machines.

I'll get a couple points out of the way before we begin.

I agree with you that the Mac Pro may very well be going away. I also agree that computing has caught up with video, and NLEs don't require advanced workstations anymore.

I disagree with your contention that workstations are relics from the past, and I contend that there are still plenty of users who can actually use all that power, whether you need it for editorial or not.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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kim krause
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 2, 2011 at 12:53:39 pm

but i'm only talking about your average joe or jane editor who is working on series and conforming and not the 3d super high res 4k file pushers. a very large percentage of what is done in the industry as far as editing is concerned can be done on fairly modest systems. most boutique shops that provide offline services (and are now forced into online as well, but thats a different story) and almost all television news stations and video amateurs downloading stuff on you tube don't need a huge powerful tower with cards for this and that. they just need to get video into their machine, make it all look good and spit it out. obviously i would never even consider trying to cut a feature film or do 3d compositing on an imac or mini just now. there will always be a market for high end machines that perform amazingly fast. thats a small percentage of the actual people using computers for editing. but just wait a few more years. most people i know are still using machines that are 2 years old or more...myself included. but when it comes time to trade in my old mac pro, it won't be with another one. i already know that my next machine will be a mac mini server connected to a hi end iMac with a second display and an iPad for a controller. and i'll be doing it by 2012. best part is it will cost me less than my current system and be way more powerful....


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Gary Huff
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 2, 2011 at 1:02:42 pm

[kim krause] hey just need to get video into their machine, make it all look good and spit it out.

And a powerful workstation will do that a lot faster than a Mac Book Pro or Mac Mini will. Or do you think we should set limits on how long a render-out should take that we should be happy with ("Oh, a 5 minute clip taking 15 minutes to render should be just fine...why would you want it any faster?").


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kim krause
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 2, 2011 at 5:26:28 pm

actually i always render at night. and when i think about time it's not much different than the old days of tape to tape. i would always have to wait for a record machine anyway and by the time the tape op has everything ready and patched in it would still take 15 minutes then you would have to play it out. in that case a 5 minute clip would take 20 minutes anyway so idont see any time advantage. even in your example if you could render in real time you still have to export it to fcp or avid then make a quicktime master then output that to tape if needed....how long do you think that takes?


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Shawn Miller
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 2, 2011 at 10:18:02 pm

"3d compositing on an imac or mini just now. there will always be a market for high end machines that perform amazingly fast. thats a small percentage of the actual people using computers for editing."

I think you're severely underestimating the number of people doing this kind of work. There are millions of folks doing 3D, motion graphics and compositing work... Blender alone claims to have over 2 million downloads a year. I can't even begin to guess how big After Effects' user base is, but I would be willing to believe that it dwarfs the FCP user base.

Shawn



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Oliver Peters
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 2, 2011 at 10:52:54 pm

[Shawn Miller] "There are millions of folks doing 3D, motion graphics and compositing work... Blender alone claims to have over 2 million downloads a year. I can't even begin to guess how big After Effects' user base is, but I would be willing to believe that it dwarfs the FCP user base."

And by default the majority of those folks are on PCs.

- Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com


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Craig Seeman
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 2, 2011 at 11:18:46 pm

I'm not sure if Apple ever competed in that market. As much as I love Macs, you can build a PC with much better GPU power (possibly two monster cards).



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Shawn Miller
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 2, 2011 at 11:26:55 pm

"I'm not sure if Apple ever competed in that market. As much as I love Macs, you can build a PC with much better GPU power (possibly two monster cards)."

Well... that and the fact that most of the popular 3D applications were Windows/Linux only for a long time (3DS Max comes to mind). It seemed like things were turning around though. It's unfortunate, I would have liked to have seen Apple as a bigger player in that space.

Shawn



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Shawn Miller
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 2, 2011 at 11:21:51 pm

"And by default the majority of those folks are on PCs."

There may be some truth to that. When I first started doing 3D 'stuff', compositing and motion graphics work, it seemed that the overwhelming number of my peers were on PCs. Gradually, more and more folks migrated to OSX (after the switch to Intel processors). I always thought this was a good thing, competition and diversity keeps hardware and software developers competitive, hungry and innovative. Now, I have to wonder how many of my peers will migrate back to Windows or go to Linux (assuming Apple kill the Mac Pro).

Shawn



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Bill Davis
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 2, 2011 at 11:34:30 pm

[Oliver Peters] "[Shawn Miller] "There are millions of folks doing 3D, motion graphics and compositing work... Blender alone claims to have over 2 million downloads a year. I can't even begin to guess how big After Effects' user base is, but I would be willing to believe that it dwarfs the FCP user base."

And by default the majority of those folks are on PCs."


But that's a different kettle of fish all together. An open source program like Blender encourages people who's core interest is programming and code manipulation to "try their hand" at these skill sets. Yes, some high level artists use them as well, but it's not equivalent to plopping down $1000 plus to purchase a personal work tool.

I'm all for open source concepts like this. But I thought that in this group, the central angst was coming from "the pros" who see FCP as falling to the wishes of the great unwashed "consumers" rather than being a better protected to serve the needs of the priest class.

Like FCP, Photoshop, and many other "pro" programs, AE appears on a VERY wide range of users computers. Heck, the guy who fixes my Macs has FCP, CS4 and AE installed and has paid for all of them over the years. AND he owns a really nice DSLR. But barely uses any of that hardware or software in a meaningful professional way. They are affordable toys to him. Nothing more.

This is totally true of all software, and has been since the early days of commercial programs. There are likely more "INACTIVE" seats of all successful software out there than "active" ones - and more on point, there are probably far FEWER seats in the class of "professionals who depend day to day" on any particular software than we'd guess.

I note this because after my recent update to Lion, I started playing with LaunchPad - and was kinda shocked to see the rows and rows and rows of icons for programs I had long forgotten I'd installed and used over the years. (Some of them l hadn't opened in maybe a decade! I clearly need to spend more time cleaning up during OS migrations!)

Kinda shocking, really.

"Before speaking out ask yourself whether your words are true, whether they are respectful and whether they are needed in our civil discussions."-Justice O'Connor


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Shawn Miller
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 3, 2011 at 1:13:21 am

"But that's a different kettle of fish all together. An open source program like Blender encourages people who's core interest is programming and code manipulation to "try their hand" at these skill sets. Yes, some high level artists use them as well, but it's not equivalent to plopping down $1000 plus to purchase a personal work tool."

Possibly, but I suspect most Blender users choose that application because it's powerful and it's free. Blender's UI is quirky to be sure... but it simply does things that can't be done with commercial software costing less than $3,000.00 US... like fluid simulations.

Truthfully Bill, I'm not sure what the rest of your point is; that there are fewer folks using 3D applications and AE than FCP? If that's it, then I just don't agree. The world of postproduction is much bigger than that... as I'm sure you know.

Shawn



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Walter Soyka
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 3, 2011 at 4:20:34 pm

[Shawn Miller] "There are millions of folks doing 3D, motion graphics and compositing work... Blender alone claims to have over 2 million downloads a year. I can't even begin to guess how big After Effects' user base is, but I would be willing to believe that it dwarfs the FCP user base."

[Oliver Peters] "And by default the majority of those folks are on PCs."


I'd suggest that 3D for film or effects is predominantly PC, I think you might be surprised by the number of Mac-based 3D/motion graphics studios and freelancers. I don't have hard numbers, but speaking anecdotally, I know way more Mac-based AE and C4D users than PC-based ones.

Since apps like these render on the CPU, a well-equipped Mac Pro has been a reasonable and cost-effective choice for a lot of this work, especially for motion graphics with relatively low polygon counts where Mac's subpar GPU options don't hurt viewport performance too badly as they would for film, effects, or games.

My question is this: of the Mac-based graphics shops (like mine), how many will stay on Macs?

In my article FCPX and the Domino Effect [link], I wrote about how I built my business on Macs with FCP editorial and stayed on Macs even as I did more graphics work. Now, without FCP keeping me on the Mac platform, I'm evaluating PC workstations.

I doubt I'm alone.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog - What I'm thinking when my workstation's thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events


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Shawn Miller
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 4, 2011 at 2:08:41 am

"I'd suggest that 3D for film or effects is predominantly PC, I think you might be surprised by the number of Mac-based 3D/motion graphics studios and freelancers."

Funny, it never really occured to me until you said it, but I have mostly seen PCs in bigger shops and Macs (for the most part) in smaller shops (and with independent operators).

"I don't have hard numbers, but speaking anecdotally, I know way more Mac-based AE and C4D users than PC-based ones."

This isn't a huge surprise, I've heard that the C4D user base is about 50/50 Windows and OSX.x ... though, I can't be sure how true that is. This is acutally one reason I like Maxon, they seem to be comitted to open, cross platform workflows.

"My question is this: of the Mac-based graphics shops (like mine), how many will stay on Macs?"

Yeah, that is the $64,000.00 question isn't it. My gut tells me that people (shop owners and freelancers) will go where the performance is. I will be surprised if even half of the folks in your position stay on the Mac platform, if the hardware performance isn't comparable to what will be available on workstation class machines in the future (let alone today).

Thanks,

Shawn



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Franz Bieberkopf
Re: ... a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 5:13:11 am

Why so glum? Take the long view.

Steenbeck introduced new tables ... and they're designed to last decades!

http://www.macvideo.tv/editing/features/index.cfm?articleId=3303228
http://www.steenbeck.com/

Franz.


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John Joyce
Re: ... a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 7:42:02 am

apple. is. draining. the. entire. mac professional. pool


And not just the video pool, as some have been noticing for a while:

http://www.luminous-landscape.com/forum/index.php?topic=58869.0


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Ben Scott
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 9:28:43 am

I am sure if you want an OS that looks and feels like those you are used to you will need to move to debian type linux (but not the new ubuntu)
then run lightworks on it once its come out

its pretty unlikely all linux os'es will go the way of lion, windows and ubuntu unity

so theres my little tip for the day

get learning that terminal!


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Bob Woodhead
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 12:43:26 pm

I want to be the crocodile.

"Constituo, ergo sum"

Bob Woodhead / Atlanta
Quantel-Avid-FCP-3D-AFX-Crayola
Panasonic HPX500/AF100


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Jamie Franklin
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 1, 2011 at 7:49:06 pm

I started hallucinating June 24th. NAB was more of a farce than Kim Kardashians wedding...


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Perry Trest
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 13, 2011 at 6:16:54 am

Apple is and has always been a consumer product company. It amazes me that anyone would build a professional motion picture facility based on Apple hardware or software. Example: a few years ago a local facility removed its high end linear and nonlinear editing suites and replaced them with Final Cut systems. Not only have their editors wasted years with half baked software, they are having to consider a whole sale change of systems and learn new tools.

Final Cut My Throat X is consumer software as are all previous versions. The only reason FCP outsold Avid was due to cost of entry and in the professional world price is generally not the primary driving factor behind system purchase decisions. So all I can say to those of you who only have experience with FCP, sorry about that pal. And look at you now. Considering other consumer products like PPro? Unbelievable!

With that said, for the basic task of editing, it really doesn't matter what software/hardware you use, but investing your time and money in consumer products will not give you a long term return on your knowledge and skill set investment.

Simple rule to follow: If the product has the word "pro" in the name, it probably isn't.

Facial Recognition anyone? HA! You gotta be kidding me!

Perry Trest
POSTDIGITAL, Inc.

MacPro 8-core 2.8Ghz
8GB RAM
Slot 1 = GT120
Slot 2 = Quadro 4000
Slot 3 = DeckLink SDI
Slot 4 = Nitris DX
Internal 6TB 4-Drive software RAID-0
Tangent Wave


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Chris Harlan
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 13, 2011 at 8:59:06 am

You're a troll, right? Or are you just completely out of touch? Many people out here in LA would find your rant kind of funny/sad. Maybe even quaint. And very 2004. I know a few guys who still do that silly Avid Uber Alles strut, but not many. But, hey, feel free to dance around in the corner. That's what its for.


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Steve Connor
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 13, 2011 at 10:32:45 am

I quite enjoyed the retro trolling, took me back to the early days of FCP. To be fair, with that 1990's interface, some Avid editors could get a bit confused. Should make it easier when MC6 is released :)

"My Name is Steve and I'm an FCPX user"


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Perry Trest
Re: we're gathered around a very small pond.
on Nov 20, 2011 at 2:22:10 pm

Da facts is da facts gentlemen. I calls'em like I sees'em.

Final Cut My Throat X. That's funnee rat thar. I don't care who you are, that's FUNNEE!!!

Oh, you live on the west coast? Sorry about that too.

Perry Trest
POSTDIGITAL, Inc.

MacPro 8-core 2.8Ghz
8GB RAM
Slot 1 = GT120
Slot 2 = Quadro 4000
Slot 3 = DeckLink SDI
Slot 4 = Nitris DX
Internal 6TB 4-Drive software RAID-0
Tangent Wave


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