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2017 Oscar Predictions

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Scott Roberts
2017 Oscar Predictions
on Feb 23, 2017 at 6:59:29 pm

A good chunk of people will be tuning into the Oscars this Sunday to see the inevitable parade of liberal arts majors trying to one-up each other with politicized speeches. Another chunk will watch to just to say that celebrities should "Shut up!" because "they're just here to play dress-up" and they "don't have an opinion anyone wants to hear". A final chunk is really excited to see who wins Best Sound Mixing.

I, however, am here to continue my now 6 year (?) tradition of guessing who will win the 24 awards that make up the Oscars. I've done as good as 20, and as low as 14. How will I do this year? Will I get a perfect 24? Will I totally flop? Will I ever find my missing headphones? I guess you'll have to check back in on Monday to find out...



BEST PICTURE: LA LA LAND

Maybe out of the realistic options to win this award, La La Land is the one I feel like truly deserves it. It's a pretty great movie, with a pretty great ending. I wanna be one of those guys who says it's a musical for people who hate musicals; but I also like West Side Story, The Rocky Horror Picture Show, Cannibal! the Musical, Tenacious D and the Pick of Destiny, and about a dozen Disney movies... So I'll just add La La Land to that list.



BEST DIRECTOR: DAMIEN CHAZELLE (LA LA LAND)

I only know this dude from Whiplash and La La Land, and he's not only becoming one of my new favorite filmmakers, but he is also making me reconsider whether or not jazz is actually cool.



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

This was actually my favorite movie of last year, because I'm a sucker for overwhelmingly sad films, but I assume this won't be winning many awards this weekend. I think they will throw it a bone, though, for a screenplay that is legitimately well-crafted and poignant.



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: MOONLIGHT

I'm not going to be super surprised if Moonlight ends up winning Best Picture, even though I didn't really like it as much as most of the other films in that category, but I understand why people really like it, and it seems like a shoe-in to win Adapted Screenplay, at the very least.



BEST ACTOR: DENZEL WASHINGTON (FENCES)

I think that Casey Affleck was the best actor of the year, but it seems like his personal life is catching up to him, and that may potentially cost him an Oscar. Meanwhile, I have yet to see Fences, but based on the marketing, Denzel gives the classic over-the-top, slightly corny dramatic performance that the Academy has honored for decades.



BEST ACTRESS: EMMA STONE (LA LA LAND)

She was pretty much the driving force behind why La La Land was so good. Also, Amy Adams didn't get nominated for Arrival.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: MAHERSHALA ALI (MOONLIGHT)

He's good in the movie, for sure, and he's won just about every other award he's been nominated for.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: VIOLA DAVIS (FENCES)

The second I saw the trailer and Viola Davis was crying with boogers shooting out of her nose and landing all over her face, I *knew* the Academy was going to eat that up. The performance, I mean. Not the boogers. But I wouldn't judge either way.



BEST EDITING: LA LA LAND

Those battle scenes in Hacksaw Ridge would probably snag the award most years, but the beginning of the movie really needed to be edited down because it was so cheesy. I think La La Land used the most, and best editing techniques overall.



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: LA LA LAND

This might be really close with Moonlight and Arrival right on La La Land's tail. But I'll go with my gut on this one. I mean, the dance sequences were bananas.



BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: LA LA LAND

I think this one kind of goes hand in hand with the Cinematography award I think it will win as well. This movie just looked really great.



BEST COSTUME DESIGN: JACKIE

Jackie O's coats are pretty dope.



BEST MAKEUP & HAIR: STAR TREK BEYOND

If Suicide Squad wins, it will reward the awful person who thought that the Joker's stupid tattoos were a good idea, so I really hope that doesn't happen. I haven't even heard of the third movie in this category, so I'll just lean on Star Trek Beyond; which, I mean, has some pretty good makeup.



BEST FOREIGN FILM: THE SALESMAN (IRAN)

I haven't seen any of these movies, but selecting an Iranian movie during this political climate, with all the controversy about the director and everything... It just feels like a safe choice for a group of people who enjoy shoving things in President Donny's face.



BEST DOCUMENTARY: OJ: MADE IN AMERICA

I really, really want to see this. And it looks like it's pretty much the consensus pick for this category.



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: KUBO AND THE TWO STRINGS

Zootopia is the favorite based on other awards show wins, but I personally loved Kubo wayyyyyy more than Zootopia. If you want a more rational reason, it's the only film in this category to be nominated for something else, too (Visual Effects). If that plays into it at all.



BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: THE JUNGLE BOOK

I watched Doctor Strange 1 and 1/2 times on the airplane rides on the latest business trip I took, and those kaleidoscope visual effects are pretty nuts. But I don't see them giving a Marvel movie this award, so I'll go with The Jungle Book, which had pretty sweet effects too. I was legit scared of that CGI tiger.



BEST SOUND EDITING: HACKSAW RIDGE

There's a lot of finely edited PEW PEWs and KABLAMOS.



BEST SOUND MIXING: LA LA LAND

It's a musical that recorded the singing on set. I'll go with that one.



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: LA LA LAND

It's the only score I actually remember, and I don't want to admit how it much it got stuck in my head after seeing the movie twice.



BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "CITY OF STARS" (LA LA LAND)

Only because they foolishly didn't bother to nominate "So Humble" from Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping. It made the short list!



BEST ANIMATED SHORT: PEAR CIDER AND CIGARETTES

I once again didn't make it out to the Animated Shorts showcase like I used to like to do... But I watched the trailers for all of these, and this one looked like the coolest.



BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: ENNEMIS INTÉRIEURS

This one looks kinda good? I don't know.



BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: WATANI: MY HOMELAND

I read the description of it, and it's about a Syrian refugee family. I'll go with the timely choice.


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Mark Suszko
Re: 2017 Oscar Predictions
on Feb 23, 2017 at 9:46:25 pm

Kubo is brilliant, but I liked Moana even better.


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Scott Roberts
Re: 2017 Oscar Predictions
on Feb 27, 2017 at 4:29:05 pm

13 out of 24. Maybe I should retire from the Oscar pick game?

But if it makes me feel any better (I guess it doesn't), here's four instances of me picking the correct winner, and then second guessing myself, and choosing something else:

Best Picture: "I'm not going to be super surprised if Moonlight ends up winning Best Picture"

Best Actor: "I think that Casey Affleck was the best actor of the year, but it seems like his personal life is catching up to him, and that may potentially cost him an Oscar."

Editing: "Those battle scenes in Hacksaw Ridge would probably snag the award most years, but the beginning of the movie really needed to be edited down because it was so cheesy."

Animated Feature: "Zootopia is the favorite based on other awards show wins, but I personally loved Kubo wayyyyyy more than Zootopia."

That would have only gotten me a 17 our of 24, so I would still have looked like a bad predictor. Oh, well.


As for the awards show itself...

Wow, that was a pretty crazy ending! I'd say that mess up was probably 15% Warren Beatty's fault for not just saying "Uh, this might be the wrong card." 5% Faye Dunaway's fault for just blurting out "La La Land!", and 80% the PricewaterhouseCooper guy's fault for handing the two poor, clueless old people the wrong envelope. Oh well, it made for a pretty exciting ending.

The rest of the show was kind of decent I guess. Jimmy Kimmel had some good jokes. He was probably batting .750 on the funny jokes. I liked the bit where he brought in the tourists.

I think 90% of the speeches were not memorable for me. I honestly don't remember anything specific that anyone said, outside of a few out of context phrases.

The awards handed out themselves were also kind of bleh this year. I really liked La La Land, but I also don't really care that it lost to Moonlight for Best Picture (a movie I only sort of liked), because La La Land won a bunch of other great awards. I guess I enjoyed that there wasn't some dumb biopic or Oscar bait period piece in serious contention for the big awards.


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